Loomis AB (publ) (LOOMIS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Q3 '23 report of Loomis AB. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the conference over to Aritz Larrea, President and CEO. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the third quarter presentation for Loomis. My name is Aritz Larrea, and I'm the CEO of Loomis. With me here today, I have our CFO, Johan Wilsby, who joined Loomis in October; and Jenny Bostrom, our Head of Sustainability and Investor Relations. I want to start by welcoming Johan to Loomis. It is great to have you on board.

Thanks, Aritz. Hi, everyone.

I will now present the overview of the quarter and then open up for questions. Let's start the presentation by turning to Slide 3. We had a solid performance during the third quarter. The business in Europe and LatAm was supported by continued growth. And in the United States, we saw growth across all business lines, and we believe our high-quality services will continue to gain market share. Most business lines had revenue growth in the quarter, but we did see the volumes in the international business come down. When it comes to Loomis Pay, we continue to see that our efforts are paying off in terms of both increased revenues and transaction volumes, where we saw strong growth within all markets. Our SafePoint business has continued to perform well in the quarter, our commitment to growing and developing our offer of automated solutions is an important part of our strategy. As we announced in July, we are expanding further into this field with our strategic acquisition of Cima. Their dedicated focus on R&D and technological know-how is a great strength of the company, and our complementary strengths will allow us to develop ad-hoc solutions that add value to our customers. Cima's global sales network will also provide us with additional growth opportunities and access to new markets. We closed the acquisition at the beginning of October, and the business will be consolidated into the Europe-LatAm SafePoint business line in the fourth quarter. The continuing geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns have a dual impact on markets we're in. As we've stated before, while increased inflation may change consumption patterns within the retail business, higher interest rates provide an incentive for financial institutions to move cash quicker. We're also seeing that the higher interest rate environment impacts the demand for storage and transportation of cash and valuables, which has a negative effect on the international business line. Let's move on to the next page where we have the highlights for the quarter. We had a strong performance in the quarter and achieved a revenue above SEK 7.4 billion, which is the highest revenue ever in a single quarter. The revenue was positively affected by volume growth, and we are steadily increasing the recurring revenues from both our automated solutions as well as the ATM business. The currency movements in the quarter were also favorable. We saw a strong organic growth in the quarter with an increase in all 3 segments despite a strong comparable quarter. We also recorded double-digit growth for our automated solutions overall. Regarding the operating margin, it was at 11%. Our margins benefited from increased volumes and efficiency measures in a climate of severe cost inflation. Two, nonrecurring costs in Europe, however, offset the margin. I will go into more details on these items later in the presentation. We had a strong operating cash flow of about $700 million in the quarter, with a cash conversion of 90%. More working capital is tied up in operations given our continued strong growth. But in terms of days sales outstanding, our accounts receivable remained at a stable level. Let's turn to the next page where you can see how the revenue and the margin has developed over time. We have had a steady increase in our revenue since the beginning of 2021, including the currency impact, revenues increased nearly 10% in the quarter compared to the prior year. For the quarter, we achieved an operating margin of 11%. If we adjust it for the 2 nonrecurring items in Europe, the margin would have been at 12%. Let's have a look at our segments. We turn to the next page and start with the Europe and LatAm. The positive trend in revenue growth in Europe and Latin America continued where we had another strong quarter, which is an organic growth of more than 6% and reached record high revenues of close to SEK 3.6 billion. The operating margin of 10.8% was positively affected by the organic growth and increased efficiencies. However, this was offset by 2 nonrecurring items and the volume decline in the international business. The quarter included a cost of SEK 61 million related to the theft of valuables within the international operations. Additionally, a cost of SEK 17 million was recorded within the FX business line due to issues with the system implementation. We are confident that these incidents are not structural in nature and thus, nonrecurring. Turning on to the next page and focusing on the trend of both revenue and margin. We see that the total top line growth was above 10%. Since the beginning of 2021, we have seen a positive recovery expanding quarter-by-quarter in our main markets, and we are now reaching stronger comparison periods. The operating margin is below Q3 last year, impacted by the 2 incidents described earlier. Without these costs, the operating margin would have reached 13%. Let's turn to the next page over to the U.S. The strong momentum continued in the U.S. business. Revenue was at a record high of SEK 3.8 billion with continued increase in recurring revenue. Our revenue related to automated solutions and ATMs represent 44% of the U.S. revenue. Organic growth was at 6% in the quarter, with our automated solutions business with SafePoint achieving double-digit growth for yet another quarter in a row. We reported a strong operating margin of 14.2% and the operating income of SEK 547 million is a new record for us. Moving on to the next page and talking on the trend of both revenue and margin. We see the exceptional U.S. business revenue trend during the last 2 years. And while we have benefited from favorable currency rates during this period, I want to stress that our performance in local currency has also been very strong. Regarding the operating margin, thanks to structured work on operational efficiencies, we improved the prior year's number by 0.5 percentage points. We're also seeing indications that the labor market in the U.S. is easing, which would stabilize the situation that the U.S. operations have had over recent quarters with higher costs for overtime recruitment and training. Let's turn to the next page and talk about Loomis Pay. Also for Loomis Pay, we had a strong revenue growth in all markets, both compared to the previous year and to the previous quarter, and revenues reached SEK 15 million. We keep seeing transaction volumes increasing as we move ahead. For the quarter, the increase was 94% compared to the same quarter last year, and we achieved about SEK 1.3 billion in transaction volumes. Let's turn to the next slide where I will share a couple of highlights on our progress on our sustainability initiatives. We can see that our sustainability-related projects are moving forward, an initiative to install solar panels for instance, has started in the U.S. Eventually, solar panels should be able to be meet around 20% of the energy needs of a U.S. branch. I can also share that in the third quarter, approximately 30% of our energy consumption came from renewable energy sources. I'm very proud of the actions we've taken within the organization and the progress that we're making. Let's turn to the income statement slide, where I will start by highlighting the strong growth we have achieved both for the isolated quarter and for the rolling 12 months, where our real growth is 9%. Regarding the items affecting comparability, which are related to the restructuring plan in Europe and Latin America, we have experienced a slight delay in the execution of the restructuring. Now we have the right team in place to implement the plan and the majority of the remaining actions will be executed in Q1 next year. Already -- also, as I -- as already touched upon the 2 incidents within Europe, had a negative impact on the margin of SEK 78 million. I would also like to highlight that the increase in net financial items is largely a result of the increased interest rates. As you know, most of our financing is with variable rates and how the interest rates will develop going forward is hard for us to speculate on. As announced at the beginning of October, we took a new term loan in connection with the closing of Cima and therefore, you can expect the interest expenses to be higher in the next quarter. Moving on to the next slide to highlight our performance in relation to our history. As you can see on a rolling 12-month basis, we have achieved record revenues. While our rolling 12-month margin is flat on a reported basis, if we adjust for the nonrecurring items, we would have been at 11.1%. We are confident in our business and that we were able to reach our margin target by the end of the strategic period in 2024. Let's now move to Slide 14 to summarize the quarter. We achieved record revenues with strong organic growth for all of our segments for both the quarter and rolling 12 months. Thanks to structured work on improving our operational efficiency, our margin increased in the U.S. We expect that the situation we have been experiencing with higher costs related to recruitment over time and training should be stabilizing going forward. We had a more challenging quarter for Europe and Latin America due to the international business. If we disregard the nonrecurring items we described earlier, our margin in Europe and LatAm would have reached 13%, which is a strong margin for the segment. In terms of Loomis Pay, both transaction volumes and revenues ramped up this quarter, and I'm positive that our efforts and investments in Loomis Pay will continue to generate results. Growing our automated solutions business is an important part of our strategy. Notably, we had double-digit growth for the group within our automated solutions for the quarter. With the acquisition of Cima, which we closed at the beginning of the month, we are entering an exciting new period of innovation and growth within this business. We have a strong balance sheet with the capacity to continue to make strategic and value-creating acquisitions. Our capital allocation priorities remain, where we aim to use our capital in the best way to generate returns and create value for our shareholders. The Board of Directors has made the decision to continue to post share repurchases in the next quarter to prioritize an active M&A agenda. Lastly, we're making progress within our climate-related sustainability initiatives. As we have more and more electric vehicles on the road and further work on optimizing our routes, we are decreasing our emissions from transportation despite growing our business volumes. With additional solar panel installation projects and a higher share of renewable energy, I am confident that we will achieve our absolute CO2 emission reduction targets while growing the business. With that, I'm done with my summary for the third quarter. So let's turn to Q&A. Operator, we are now open to questions, please.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Suhasini Varanasi from Goldman Sachs.

I think the question I have is mainly on Europe and the margins over there. I see that adjusting for the one-off items, it's approaching 13% EBIT margin, but that's still down year-over-year. How should we think about the normalized margins here, medium term? And perhaps, are there any concerns going into Q4 that we should be aware of so that we can modulate currently?

Yes. Thank you for your question, Suhasini. Yes, we talked about the nonrecurring items, and we've also talked about the international business slowdown. Looking forward, we do expect the international business to remain flat for the rest of the year. And with the nonrecurring items, I mean, we're confident that all the measures that we put, especially on the FX tool will stop this from happening again. So we're confident that moving forward, we won't have these type of concern.

The next question is from the line of Viktor Lindeberg from Carnegie.

Yes. Following up on the theft of the valuables in the International segment there, can you comment a bit maybe on compensation you may receive from an insurance perspective? Or is this a different type of test that you have experienced? And maybe theft in a broader context, this has been an element of the business in the past as well, but I guess it has also been absorbed either by compensation from insurances or but it's been very minor in the past. But maybe if you can elaborate a bit on how this -- how sort of it fits with the business, if you will.

Okay. I mean, we've had these issues in the past, not I mean, not as big as this one. But we do have -- I mean, due to the nature of our business, you can understand that we normally have this type of issues. The problem is the magnitude of the issue. In this case, it was really a big theft. I mean we cannot -- we are cooperating now with law enforcements, so we cannot provide any details externally, but we do see it as clearly a one-off item.

That's fair enough. And is this potentially an insurance claim that you will get at some point or it's anyone's guess.

Sorry, I didn't understand you well.

The -- is there a potential compensation from an insurance perspective at the end of...

Yes. Yes. You're right, there was an insurance claim, yes.

Following up on more on the underlying, I'm looking at Europe, and it seems to me that the SafePoint growth is quite stable growing at double digits according to my calculation, adjusted for FX. And is this, firstly, a, something you can confirm? And b, then what initiatives are you now running for SafePoint rollout in Europe? Anything new you can share? Or is it just business as usual here?

I would say still business as usual because we've been working on this for a while. I mean we always have the comparison of Europe and the U.S., and we've always said that the outsourcing process of cash started earlier in Europe. So that makes it more difficult. Now with the Cima acquisition, I'm confident that we will be able to grow the automated solutions business in Europe and Latin America not only in our existing markets, but in new markets as well. So we do see a nice future moving ahead.

And do you see similar margin levels now in a more normal post-COVID steady state. So SafePoint profitability should be well above the European margin level still. Is that a fair assumption when modeling this?

Yes, it is a fair assumption. Yes.

Good. Following up on Cima, being fully consolidated now from basically the beginning of Q4. Should we look at this business having a big seasonality in revenue and maybe earnings. So we're mindful of that now when looking at Q4 expectations. So we get aligned on that.

No, we don't see a big seasonality in this type of business. So it's more or less stable throughout the year. So I mean, you could consider like 1/4 of the revenue that we stated for the fourth quarter.

One thing to Viktor for when we consolidate Cima, obviously the balance sheet and that we will have inventory going forward with the manufacturing units.

Yes. That's confirmed. And on profitability, that is also reached -- beyond that 1/4 approximately for the full year earnings should come in Q4, give or take?

Yes.

Perfect. Is there any initial reaction you've seen now when you have got your hands on this asset, looking at client discussions, relationships in Cima as it has been and is a supplier to some of your competitors? Anything that you could share that we should be mindful of now when modeling this asset going into next year?

We haven't seen any reactions from the customers, I mean, good reactions from most of them. It's important to understand that we are committed to honoring the contracts and relationships and we will keep supplying the customers and those companies with the same high service level that Cima has always provided. So we still have the ambition to grow the business, but no reactions from the customers so far.

The next question is from the line of Johan Eliason from Kepler.

This is Johan Eliason from Kepler Cheuvreux. I have a little bit of a follow-up question here on the FX business in Europe. You said it's technical implementation problem causing some extra cost in this quarter. But we had historically some problems with the licensing, I think it was Denmark, et cetera. Is this business really something that's adding value for you over time, you think?

I think it does. I mean the problem we had is that we had a big volume increase in the FX business with new customers coming in and the system was not say, set up and tested to handle these type of customers, but we are confident that it's right business to have here.

And could you say anything about the return profile of this business versus the rest of Europe?

Are you talking about margins? Yes. I mean we've always said that our main focus on the FX today is B2B and B2B2C. But we do have higher margins that we have in our core business, for example.

The next question is from the line of Daniel Thorsson from ABG.

So a question on the margin here in group level. With only Q4 left, it looks like 2023 margin is going to come in say, around 11% or so. And you said in the beginning that you're confident to reach the 12% to 14% margin target, which is next year in 2024. Is that uplift mainly coming from Europe or U.S. or any other specific drivers you see next year?

It will come from both. It will come from both. I mean we have the margin improvement that we've been experiencing in the U.S. That's one thing. And then we will have to catch up with our price increases in Europe as well with this high inflation environment. So it will come from both areas.

Yes. Do you see any risk of volumes declining in Europe next year, cash volumes for you?

No. I mean, we need to see how the international business behaves next year and what happens with the interest rates. But when it comes to the whole business, no, I don't see any increases there.

Okay. Cool. Final question on price and volume drivers here in Europe and U.S. You said that you have both price and volume increases in organic growth rates. This quarter, can you say how much they contribute roughly, I guess, that the volume contribution is larger in the U.S. than Europe. Is that fairly good?

Yes, yes. Looking at the Europe and LatAm, we could say that 2/3 is price and 1/3 is volume. And when you look at the U.S., it's obviously 2/3 is volume.

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Viktor Lindeberg from Carnegie.

Looking at Germany that you have been looking more in detail into the business and then how to navigate that going forward? Can you share any more details now on how that is progressing, what initiatives have you taken? And how should we look upon this going into 2024?

So there's no changes to what we have communicated here. I mean, we have said that we've been delayed when executing the restructuring plan. Now, we have the right team in place. I mean we had some changes in the management team, and they are ready to implement the majority of the remaining actions in Q1 next year. I mean we did say in the past that the restructuring was expected to be between SEK 50 million and SEK 60 million and a payback of 2 years. We stick to that.

Okay. And then restructuring cost timing, should we see that coming now in Q4, just to understand your phrasing here?

More in Q1.

More in Q1 next year. Don't expect much now in Q4.

All right. So effectively, what you've done is to have a business overview and you replace management and now it's about execution going into next year and giving it a chance to hit numbers in the black but no more initiatives taken -- were expected to be taken. Is that the way to read it?

No, you're right. And the only thing that I would add is that then we also have the Cima business in Germany as well. So Cima is present in Germany as well, and that will help us to boost a little bit the automated solutions part in Germany. But basically, it's the restructuring plan from the new management.

All right. Maybe, could you give an interest rate, have changed and continue to be a bit of a fluid situation. Can you give us a blended proxy for your cost of debt now with the current funding. It has been changing a bit now with recent bond financing and also what we did with additional financing now as of late here with Cima, just so we get a sense of the cost of debt going into Q4 and beginning of next year?

Yes. So we have a pretty broad debt portfolio and different instruments. And obviously, we are doing variable interest rates in there. So you should think like, if Central Bank keeps increasing the interest rates, we roughly have 5, 6 weeks of delay before we see the full impact into our portfolio. So it will keep increasing a bit now in Q4 due to that. I don't have an average for you in bps right now. So I'll follow up with you separately on that topic.

Super. That's good. I appreciate that, Johan. Final, from my side, I'm looking at some of the breakdown in Europe and the markets trying to back solve the organic evolution on Switzerland and the U.K. and they seem to be struggling a bit when looking at organic growth. I know you've been in part addressing the U.K. as part of this bigger restructuring, mostly going into Germany, but with also U.K. And U.K. seem to be in a double-digit negative organic decline now in Q3. Maybe any color on that? And also Switzerland, I guess that's partly international business driven, but that one is also for the fourth consecutive quarter now in a negative organic momentum here. So these markets, they actually stand out quite a lot. How should we look upon these markets from a Loomis perspective?

Yes. I think you're spot on Switzerland, and it's the same effect in U.K. I mean Switzerland, the volumes of cash and values in storage has declined and that is affecting those numbers. And then when it comes to U.K., when you look at the domestic business, it grew 3.5% in the quarter. So the negative effect was also from international business there.

Questions at this time. I hand back to Aritz Larrea for closing comments.

Thank you very much, everybody, for listening in. Please reach out, if you have any follow-up questions, please. Bye-bye.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded. You may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.