Lords Group Trading plc (LORD) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Lords Group Trading Plc investor presentation. [Operator Instructions] The company may not be in a position to answer every question it receives during the meeting itself. However, the company will review all questions submitted today and publish responses where it's appropriate to do so, and these will be available via your Investor Meet company dashboard. I would now like to hand you over to CEO, Shanker Patel. Good morning, sir.

Good morning and thank you, everyone, for joining us today in our H1 '23 results presentation. The agenda is on your screens. I will present an overview, followed by a financial review by my colleague, Chris Day, our CFO and COO. We will then split a strategy update between ourselves, and I'll conclude with an outlook followed by Q&A. The overview of our performance in H1 '23, the highlights are on the screen and to call out, we have continued the momentum with strategic targets well on track and with tremendous growth opportunities, whilst recognizing that there are challenging market conditions. First and foremost is my gratitude to our 895 colleagues who are customer focused and that proposition has enabled our market outperformance. The credit -- the tremendous credit goes to them. We were also delighted with our record performance with half year results in line with our expectations. And we are continuing our progression towards our EBITDA margin of 7.5% in the medium term. The performance that we have got for H1 '23, we believe is an outperformance of the market. However, despite that outperformance, we are not immune to the impacts of the macro trading environment, hence, we have revised our full year targets. We're pleased to have announced 7 new locations added to the network in good markets through organic and acquisition expansion strategy. Ultimately, we're still confident that our growth strategy, based on consolidation, product reach extension and branch expansion will hold true, given that Lords remains less than 1% of a very large GBP 55 billion market. On the next page, where we have the investment case, we've always termed ourselves and continue to do so as a leading high-growth distributor of building materials in the U.K. You see 6 blocks, and I won't go through each of them, highlighting our investment case that reaffirms that we have a unique customer-first proposition. Central to that customer service that is delivered through engaged colleagues, and that is fundamental to our business and to our differentiated customer service. We also have recognizable local and regional leadership as well as brands, and we continue to invest in them. The combination of the above 3 points creates loyal, long-term customer relationships. The other part of our investment case which I'll call out is the fact that we have a value-creative M&A history, a very successful one. There are plenty of independent merchants between a GBP 2 million and GBP 100 million turnover that hold 40% of the market and are prime for consolidation yet again, which we will talk about the Alloway acquisition that we made recently, and that fits within our consolidation strategy. We also maintain ourselves to be an attractive buyer for family businesses because we provide good continuity and development into the businesses that we acquire. We have a good track record of discipline in acquiring businesses at the 4 to 6x multiple range of EBITDA and that most of our acquisitions are earnings accretive. If not in the immediate, but in the next period, they always perform and increase our earnings. We've made 15 acquisitions in the last 5 years, delivering 20%-plus return on investment. I'd like to also point out the other blocks of substantial organic and margin accretive growth. We're constantly seeking out new markets and customers via new store rollouts of our existing brands. We have previously spoken about Mr Central Heating and George Lines brands that both have an opportunity to grow through new store rollouts. We have an accelerating digital capability that creates new repeat customers. We mix digital, so online and off-line infrastructure, to make sure that the customer repeatedly deals with us in whichever way they want to, either online or in store, or via the telephone, or via email. It's a customer proposition that we feel really cements the loyalty by being able to give them multiple ways in how they can transact with us. And we're constantly increasing the share of our customer wallet through marketing new products, and we'll talk about one particular area of product growth, which is renewables. And that is all growing and the penetration of decarbonized products actually also drives margin expansion. The final box, which I'll call out is our track record. We are recognized as industry leaders, and we are aligned with our shareholders via significant management majority shareholding. The experience that the management has is over 200 years in the industry. And I as the CEO have led the group since 1992 and during 3 previous economic downturns. And the next slide, I'll hand over to Chris to provide a financial review.

Good morning, everybody. So I think we presented here a very strong half year set of numbers. As we work through the table, you'll see some clear outperformance against our peer group in the sector. Revenue totaled GBP 222.6 million, so 3.9% growth on a total basis and adjusted EBITDA of GBP 15.1 million, up 6.1% half year-on-half year. The continuation of margin progression, which is one of our strategic initiatives and we've got various levers that we'll talk you through as we go through the presentation in terms of how we're doing that, that lifted the EBITDA margin despite the climate and despite the inflationary pressures from 6.6% to 6.8%. And, then at an operating profit level, an 11.6% increase taking us to GBP 8.1 million. As you then work through from operating profit to adjusted profit before tax, you can see GBP 7.7 million and adjusted earnings per share at 3.39p. That was a step back year-on-year of 0.48p but largely reflective of interest rate and corporation tax impacts as you work through that P&L. Dividend per share remains strong and progressing in line with our policy, matching last year's number at 0.67p on an interim basis. Free cash flow, we will talk about later as we work through the slides. So focusing initially on Merchanting. Another strong half year, another a record half year for this division. Revenue at GBP 109.4 million, up from GBP 105.9 million in the previous year, so a 3.3% growth. You can see on a like-for-like basis, that's a 5.1% decline. But what we're very much focused on is making sure that we're taking profitable work mindful of the environment, mindful of competitor pricing decisions and mindful of inflation. Our trading is based on driving profitable EBITDA growth. And so we're willing to trade a little bit of like-for-like for that momentum in the EBITDA performance, which as you drop down, you can see a 10.4% increase in our Merchanting division in the half year to GBP 8.5 million. And for those that were with us at the full year, or certainly this time last year, we spoke about the fact we'd seen some margin pressures this time last year, but we expected them to rebound partially. And that's what these results show with that 0.4% uptick in Merchanting EBITDA margin of 7.7%. Transactions or acquisitions, there are 4 in this division that landed through 2022 and the first half of '23. It was before Alloway. Alloway is the fifth. They're all performing in line with expectations. Well integrated are earnings accretive. In Plumbing and Heating, a relatively similar position to Merchanting, kind of, we think, again, a solid first half despite the prevailing trading environment. Revenue of 4.5%, so GBP 113.2 million, 4.5% total growth and 3.8% decline on a like-for-like basis. Adjusted EBITDA, marginally moving up at GBP 6.6 million is a strong result in this market, up 1.9%. And you can then see a slight step back in margin of 5.8% in Plumbing and Heating. I would context that we've made significant progression in that EBITDA margin in Plumbing and Heating over the last 2 years, so for us, we're comfortable with that. We think it reflects some of the trading decisions that we've made and believe it's the right mix that ultimately has yielded EBITDA growth. And then pleasingly, we're delighted to announce that we've opened the next Mr Central Heating in Edinburgh since we shared that initiative and the long-term ambition over the next 5 years is to get to 40 new locations. This is location 2, since we set that target following West Brom last year. And we're really confident that Edinburgh will further prove the investment case and then it would allow us to start to accelerate rollout over the next couple of years. Mr Central Heating is a great opportunity. So if we can land 40 new locations, we expect them to deliver double-digit EBITDA margin and the return on investment is very strong because they are relatively small boxes, light on CapEx and no or very little account business. So very little trade debtors, very little cash deployed in that regard, which helps the return. In terms of working capital, we thought we'd cover this before we go to free cash flow laid out really clearly in the table, I think, and hopefully easy for people to understand. We have 2 dynamics in our H1 '23 numbers. Firstly, last year, we had the industry-wide boiler supply shortages. That effectively took the supply chain from fan into [ heaters ] as it corrected and resolved itself at the very end of last year into the new year. And that has kind of flowed into our stock profile and ultimately our paid -- we have more paid-up stock as at June than would be normal, but will unwind over the next couple of months and return to normal, it's just phasing. The second and larger element in the working capital in the trade are the payables sits seasonality. This is consistent, hence, I've shown H1 '21. What we have in P&H is effectively forward cash flow model. So simply, if you park stock for a second, our creditors are larger than our debtors and in Plumbing and Heating, with seasonality, we're busier in the winter than we are in the summer. And therefore, you will always get the seasonal movement at the half year but you get that forward cash flow reduces ever so slightly and then comes back again through the winter. You can see that in H1 '23. You can see that H1 '21. It's not visible in H1 '22 because of the industry-wide boiler supply shortages. So they disrupted the working capital movements there that you would typically expect to see. So on the free cash flow side, I think kind of having explained the working capital, the other key point to call out would be CapEx. You can see a GBP 4.3 million outflow in H1. GBP 2.2 million of that includes we made a strategic purchase of a freehold in growth of our George Lines' civils brand. That was announced at the beginning of the year, effectively a GBP 2.2 million downpayment in the half year '23 followed by the full consideration later into H2 next year in July. So if you take that out, GBP 4.3 million on an underlying basis is GBP 2.1 million, and that sits very comparably with previous years and guidance.

So in terms of our strategic update, we're going to focus on our product range expansion and our locations as well as acquisitions. So in terms of product range expansion, the renewables range is something that we've called out before as an area that we will be investing in and expanding our capability. Sales momentum continues in this range with positive customer response to the extended product range. That shows itself in a revenue growth of 75% in H1 '23 in the overall renewables category, which consists not only of air source heat pumps, but also controls, underfloor heating, air conditioning and electric boilers. We believe that demand for energy efficient technology-driven products will continue to increase. Whilst they're off a small base, energy prices and government green initiatives will lead to a growing market, and we are uniquely positioned in this growing market because we have the distribution channels. We have the Merchanting as well as the distribution and consumer channels to be able to meet the required demand. We're also very dedicated in providing an in-house existing network to be able to supply these products. We have strong supplier relationships, and we have invested in people who are experts in this particular field. The products are margin accretive, and therefore, we should see some good organic opportunities coming through as this market starts to expand. The next case study is a recent acquisition of Chiltern Timber. It's a business based in Hemel Hempstead, north of Central London. It's a single-site specialist timber merchant. Sales of GBP 2.6 million and GBP 0.25 million of EBITDA prior to the acquisition in April 2023. If fits very well and is fully integrated into our Lords Merchanting network. What it really enables is product reach expansion to our wider customer base and wider customer base right across all of our other locations. So that specialist range that Chiltern has, it allows some of the other locations to grow its customer base as well as take a greater share of each customer's wallet. In terms of discipline, we acquired this business on a 3.2x completion multiple, net of excess cash, and there are contingent targets based on EBITDA growth. And thus far, it is performing in line with our expectations. The other case study is Beaconsfield. We've previously also highlighted that Beaconsfield we're very proud of what's been achieved here. It's a 4-acre site with substantial market catchment. Beaconsfield is one of the most affluent areas in the U.K. We acquired this business in 2017 when it was delivering revenues of GBP 2.5 million, marginally loss-making, and therefore, represented a significant turnaround project. Over a 5-year period in our ownership, we have transformed this site by our 3 P's investment across people, plant and premises. And we've also increased the product range significantly. In the heavy side range, we've extended timber, insulation, dry lining, paving, roofing and drainage. And in the light side, we've added a plumbing and heating showroom. We've added decorating, ironmongery, paint, bathrooms, tools and fixings. So it's a typical Lords turnaround where we've increased the product range; we've invested in the people; we've invested in the plant; invested in the premises and are now seeing the benefits of that. Through the highly empowered management team led by an excellent branch manageress, and that revenues have grown to GBP 10 million, a 344% increase with adjusted EBITDA of GBP 1 million in full year '22. So a great success story for us. Followed by another turnaround, which is Ladbroke Grove. This is a single-site general merchant located in West London that we acquired in August 2021, for a GBP 0.6 million of consideration. It was truly a turnaround acquisition. The business that had been in this location for many years but failing rapidly. We have installed a highly empowered management team who have grown the revenue by 70% in a very short period of time and adjusted EBITDA by 400% for H1 '23 period. Once again, this site benefits from our 3 P's investments with new dedicated trade counters to enable the extended product range. A key part of our strategy is to extend the product range. And here, we've extended the product range by adding a plumbing and heating counter; by refurbishing and adding an architectural ironmongery offering; an electrical offering; and in the light side, we've refurbished the trade counter that sells decorating, tools and flooring. On the next slide, this is the recent acquisition of Alloway Timber, a business that we purchased a few days ago, a 5-site general merchant delivering GBP 15.9 million revenue, and the loss-making business at negative GBP 1 million EBITDA prior to our acquisition recently. It sits in our sweet spot of turnaround transactions. I've just given you 2 examples of what we've done previously, and we expect to do the same here, with earnings accretion from 2024 financial year. And that will come through with significant revenue and cost synergies. The business has highly strategic geographical locations, which we want to expand into and this increases our presence in the Southeast. To call out the locations of Mitcham, Byfleet, Putney, Cheam, Kingston, quite affluent areas of South and Southwest London. The total outlay was GBP 3.3 billion in cash, of which GBP 2.6 million was payable upon completion. I'll hand over to Chris on the next slide.

So I think for people that join us regularly, this is a familiar slide. On the left-hand side, you've got the target of reaching GBP 500 million of revenue by 2024. I think just by kind of the current macro environment, we remain confident of delivering that. We have, as we've shown you in the case studies, multiple organic opportunities through product range extension, new locations being across the board that are focused in Mr Central Heating and George Lines, our civils brand. The digital piece continues to play through and we have the target and the track record of doing 3 to 4 transactions per annum. So with 18 months ahead of us, we're kind of absolutely confident that, that GBP 0.5 million target remains achievable. In terms of EBITDA margin target of 7.5% over the medium term, you see through the graphic, those case studies again effectively flowing through, so accretive acquisitions. We've just shown you Beaconsfield, Ladbroke Grove and, with time, Alloway will absolutely become one. In terms of optimizing the network, it's Mr Central Heating sites that are accretive to our EBITDA margin. Digital for us it that -- we're relaxed, that's allowing the customer to move off-line and online seamlessly, but capturing more customers. Our website is one of our busiest shops. That's the way to think of it, and we want to kind of help those customers and nurture them into long-term relationships. Product range extension through the Beaconsfield and Ladbroke Grove example, you've seen exactly what we're doing and how we're deploying it. Extremely confident of the upside there. And I think crucially ties into the final block, which is operational leverage. So as we add product range extension, which is often at higher margins, gross margins, the drop-through in an operationally leveraged model is significant. And that is how we've managed to move our EBITDA margin so substantially over the last 2 years. Half year, we're up to 6.8%, and we remain confident of continuing to drive that.

So in terms of the outlook, a couple of slides. Firstly, we reiterate that we've delivered a robust performance across key financial metrics and KPIs in spite of a challenging market. And we believe we are currently outperforming the wider market and our larger peers. However, we are not immune to the persistent macroeconomic pressures. These pressures of high levels of inflation, increasing interest rates, weak consumer confidence have continued to reduce the demand in our key end markets of RMI and new house building, and therefore, consequently the demand for our group products. However, the Board is still anticipating that this level of reduced demand will continue in H2 '23. And accordingly, we expect the group to deliver revenues of GBP 450 million and an adjusted EBITDA of GBP 27 million for full year '23.

And what I would say with those numbers is that is us delivering exactly what we said we would at IPO. This is our third half year results, and we're very confident in the momentum and the progression that we're making with the business.

And off the back of that, we want to reaffirm the fundamentals of our investment proposition. We have an experienced management team that is very agile and commercial, including our divisional structure, and that allows us to seize opportunities in challenging markets. It's evidenced by the case studies in this presentation. There will be more opportunities as the market becomes challenging. We are well placed to not only grab those opportunities, but also to then turn around these businesses and grow our business in return. The significant organic growth levers of new sites and extended product range, again, we're demonstrating clearly how we're using and how we're using this particular strategy of ours of opening new sites and extending product ranges in either new sites or existing sites to deliver growth. And ultimately, we still remain small. We're less than 1% of a very large GBP 55 billion building materials market. The opportunity for us to create market share and consolidate still remains. We also have the financial firepower to be able to do that despite the challenging market conditions. We, therefore, are on track to deliver our GBP 500 million revenue in 2024 and a 7.5% EBITDA margin in the medium term. Thank you very much for listening, and we're ready to taking questions.

Shanker, Chris, that's great. Thank you very much indeed for your presentation this morning. [Operator Instructions] But just while the team take a few moments to review those questions that were submitted already, I would like to remind you that a recording of this presentation, along with a copy of the slides and the published Q&A can be accessed via your investor dashboard. Chris, Shankar, as you can see, we have received a number of questions from investors. And thank you to all of those on the call for taking the time to submit their questions. But Shankar, Chris, if I could just hand back to you just to run through those questions and give your responses where it's appropriate to do so, and then I'll pick up from you at the end. Thank you.

Sure, I'll read the first one. That's a pre-submitted question. Are there plans to diversify the product offering and expand the geographical network through either acquisition or acquiring new product centers?

Yes, and that's exactly what we have been doing. With the recent acquisition of Alloway Timber, you can see we've expanded the geographical network. In this case, it's a complementary geographical network that works very well with our existing network. In terms of the question relating to distribution, we're always also on the lookout for distribution opportunities, predominantly in the plumbing and heating space. And then as and when the right opportunity presents itself and meets our disciplined criteria, we will not hesitate to take those opportunities. So yes, there are plenty of opportunities to grow through geographical and product extension.

Next question from [ Mark ]. Good results across the group. When do you envisage consumer demand weakness will start to return to more normal levels?

So I'm trying to understand that question. When do we envisage consumer demand weakness will…

Right.

I mean normal levels of consumer demand, we feel will only start to come through when we see a plateau in interest rate expectation and for inflation to start reducing so that the real spending capability of consumers starts to increase. We're in a period where we've seen substantial levels of government assistance followed by substantial levels of inflation and then followed by substantial credit timing. All of these combinations do lead to lower consumer demand. And I think the only way that, that will now start to release itself is when there is either stimulus or a reduction in some of those pressures with inflation and interest rate.

Next one from [ Sam ]. How are you finding the valuation expectations of the businesses you are adding. You've structured these transactions with an earnout as a more performance-based metric? I'll take that.

Yes.

So it's dependent on the scenario, Sam. With Chiltern Timber, we have said in that deal, there is a contingent consideration based on EBITDA growth. That's designed to keep the multiple at a consistent level. So it's not that the multiple goes up with performance. And it's held that the vendor is staying with us, and helping us grow the business, then clearly, they should be incentivized to do that, which is ultimately good for the shareholders of Lords. And then in terms of structure set, if you take Alloway Timber, it's the most recent example, what we see there, that's a scenario where you have to break the 4 to 6x multiple of EBITDA. We look and think that we've paid 20p in the pound for revenue and were we see an absolutely fantastic fit in terms of geography across the south of London, which complements our North and West London presence at the moment. But what we see there is a big opportunity to grow revenue. We know that we are buying better and, therefore, there's a cost of goods benefit that flows into gross margin. And we also have the opportunity around overhead synergy to realize. So across 3 levers there, we see a great opportunity and, therefore, don't need to [ stretch ] that in a continued way because we're supremely confident with Ladbroke Grove and Beaconsfield of delivering those returns. Okay. We've got quite a few on the share price. I think let's tackle those. Pre-submitted, share price has struggled when performance has been sound. How can the market be sure the strategy is working and recognize this in the share price?

Look, I think the market can be assured by looking at our H1 results. We've delivered an outperformance and a clear outperformance against the market and against our listed peers. I think what we can't do is to be able to determine when this will be recognized in the share price. Our job is to run this business and perform, and that is exactly what we feel we are doing. Certainly, our H1 performance indicates that. And we've thus far met all of the commitments we made at IPO and we'll continue to do so. So our real task here is to perform. And as the question says, the performance has been sound, and we agree with that point. We wait for the market to recognize that we continue to deliver and outperform.

Yes. And I think as you go through the KPIs, these are half year results that deliver revenue growth, that deliver EBITDA growth, that deliver EBITDA margin growth and they hold a progressive dividend. As Shankar said, all we can do is keep delivering those numbers, keep talking to the investor community through platforms like this. So that's why we think we've got a growth opportunity. And people will start to -- people, when we talk about Mr Central Heating and 40 locations at 10% EBITDA margin, if you start to compound some of those things over the medium term, I think that will help people understand the opportunity. [ Michael Jay ] has raised there, this morning, the share price dropped, which obviously is aligned with the conversation we're having. And the question is why the drop? As I have decent investment and faith in the company, 30,000 shares sold and a drop of 13%?

This is partly a structural issue in the market at this moment in time. Small trading can have large effects on share prices, given the fact that the amount of shares traded in A listed companies are relatively small currently. The market is fairly nervous of the macroeconomic environment and is reacting quite adversely to what it seems to be potential negative news. Again, what we would say is that we've built this business over 30 years. We've continued to grow. I think our track record is very solid over that period. We're also demonstrating our solid performance in terms of delivering earnings growth, especially since we've been listed over the last 2 years, and we're demonstrating that in a very tough market. We feel, at some point, the market will recover, will realize the opportunities that our business has. And as the management, we're delivering on those opportunities and the share price will see itself corrected, I'm sure in due course.

Right. Next question, [ Michael Jay ] has asked would we consider share buyback schemes? And I think the answer there, [ Michael ], is kind of absolutely not. We think that we can deploy our cash and our capital to drive really strong returns through all of those strategic levers that we spoke about. So going back to the organic look at the product range examples in Beaconsfield and Ladbroke Grove that flow into Alloway, look at the multiple we paid for Chiltern Timber and the pence of revenue in Alloway Timber. We've got great opportunities to deliver really strong shareholder value through our strategy. We don't need to use our capital to do buybacks. I think that would -- that -- for me, that would suggest that we've run out of ideas, and we're far from that. We're going to seize opportunity.

And in the current market, where share buyback won't necessarily equal a share price increase, we would have to exercise caution in returning capital by that. We would much rather continue to outperform the market and let the market realize when the market is in a much better place following, hopefully, some better news on interest rates and the macroeconomic environment, which I'm sure will come in due course.

Final question, unless anymore land. Pre-submitted, market share remains relatively low, what are the plans to drive this forward? And is there sufficient capacity to meet greater customer demand and growth? So I think the way I'd answer this, to go back to what we said. We're less than 1% of the market. Today, we have 48 locations across the U.K. That's 31 in Merchanting. If you take a national -- the market leader nationally, they have in excess of 600. And in Plumbing and Heating, we have 17 nationally, we have in excess of 3 of them. So there's huge geography opportunity for us. We then have product range extension. So some of our branches have been in the group for in excess of 30 years. Some have been with us for 7 days and that, to varying levels, but not necessarily linear with the time they've been with us. They still have product range extension opportunities that we can continue to yield. And that means that we can take a little bit of every builder's wallet. And because this is an operationally leveraged model, if you can drop through product range extension at a slightly higher gross margin with less cost to serve, that's how you get that EBITDA margin improvement that we're delivering results after results. If you go back over the last 5, 6 sets of numbers, you see that real progression in revenue and EBITDA and EBITDA margin.

Chris, Shanker, if I may, just jump back in there. And thank you very much indeed for addressing all of those questions that came in from investors. And, of course, if there are any further questions that do come through, we'll make these available to you immediately after the presentation has ended. I just need to review to then add any additional responses, of course, where it's appropriate to do so, and we'll publish all those responses out on the platform. But Shankar, perhaps before really just looking to redirect those on the call to provide you their feedback, which I know is particularly important to yourself and the company, if I could please just ask you for a few closing comments to wrap up with, that would be great.

Well, again, thank you, everyone, for joining this call. We are delighted with our H1 '23 performance. We've outperformed the market. We believe that despite the changing and challenging macroeconomic conditions, our business is well set to continue to outperform the market. And looking into 2024, we still have great opportunities to meet our target of GBP 500 million revenue and a 7.5% EBITDA margin in the medium term. Thank you very much.

Shanker, Chris, that's great. Thank you once again for updating investors this morning. Could I please ask investors not to close this session as you'll now be automatically redirected for the opportunity to provide your feedback in order that the management team can better understand your views and expectations. It's going to take a few moments to complete, but I'm sure it will be greatly valued by the company. On behalf of the management team of Lords Group Trading Plc, we would like to thank you for attending today's presentation. That now concludes today's session. So good morning to you all.