Lords Group Trading plc (LORD) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Lords Group Trading plc Investor Presentation. [Operator Instructions] The company may not be in a position to answer every question it receives during the meeting itself. However, the company can review all questions submitted today and will publish their responses where it's appropriate to do so on the Investor Meet Company platform. Before we begin, I would like to submit the following poll. And if you could give that your kind attention, I'm sure the company would be most grateful. And I would now like to hand you over to the executive management team from Lords Group Trading, Shanker, Chris. Good morning.

Good morning, and thank you, everybody, for joining us this morning on our Full Year '23 Trading Update. Presenting will be myself, Shanker Patel, the CEO of the business; and Chris Day, who is our CFO and COO. The starting point is reiterating the Lords investment case. We are a leading high-growth distributor of building materials in the U.K. We have 6 very strong sections or pillars to our proposition. We are very focused on customers, and we have a unique customer-first proposition. You see on the left-hand side some bullet points highlighting what these are. And in particular, I'd like to sort of focus everyone again on the engaged colleagues bullet point. We have fantastic colleagues who are very highly engaged, and they are fundamental to our differentiated customer service proposition. And you can see that from the robustness and the resilience of our results. In the next box to the right, our successful value-creative M&A history. Again, bullet points that highlight what we've done and where the opportunity exists in our market. And once again, I'd like to reiterate to everyone on this call that we've made 15 acquisitions in the last 5 years, delivering a 20%-plus return on investment. The other point to make is that we have a long track record of discipline and making sure that the businesses that we buy are earnings accretive. We're going to move over to the middle section on the left-hand side, talking more about our organic and margin-accretive growth opportunities. You see, we have an opportunity to roll out into new markets and customers via existing brands and new stores. We had opened new stores last year, and we've increased the locations of our businesses by a number -- by 7 in 2023. We're also very good at increasing the share of customer wallet through marketing of new products, and renewables is a point in case. Over the last few years, we've also entered into the roofing space. And again, those are real examples of how we've been increasing our share of customer wallet. That's a great opportunity now, but that's presenting itself to us as a growing penetration of decarbonization products, and that will drive margin expansion. The Clean Heat Market Mechanism, which has been placed by the government into the heat and boiling industry -- oil industry, sorry, we are very well-placed to take advantage of that. We have the infrastructure, we have the colleagues and we have the supply connections with our manufacturers who make those products. In the middle right-hand side, our financial profile. Once again, we iterate that we're on track to deliver our 2024 target of GBP 500 million revenue. We have growth levers that will help us and will make sure that we reach our 7.5% EBITDA margin. And we are highly cash generative with a progressive dividend policy. On the left-hand side, the positioning of the market, which is very big at GBP 55 billion addressable, and we are still very small at less than 1%. Our resilience is also because of the 45% of our revenue in the essential repair sector of RMI. And our track record is of high growth. Over a 5-year period, we have a revenue CAGR of 50.7%. And finally on this slide, I'd like to just highlight that the business is recognized as an industry leader and is aligned with shareholders by a significant majority shareholding of the management, primarily myself as the CEO. And I've led this business through previous downturns, in particular, 3 previous downturns. In terms of the financial highlights for 2023. The trading is in line with current market expectations, and this demonstrates the group's resilience in delivering its growth strategy. The full year '23 revenues of GBP 463 million against GBP 450 million in 2022, that demonstrates our ability to deliver in more challenging market conditions. I think the market conditions and the challenges have been widely known. Our competitors have also called the same out. And therefore, we think our performance has been highly resilient in this particular market downturn. The adjusted EBITDA will be not less than GBP 26.6 million, just a step down from FY '22. And the other success that we've had is in reducing our debt from GBP 38 million at half year in June 2023 to 28.5%, which is at the lower end of market expectations. And that sort of reflects the successful management controls and initiatives that we put in place. A point that we want to make is that our net position is offset by a GBP 15 million market value of freehold properties that we hold on our books and in our locations. This is important because we see freeholds as a means of mitigating increasing rents, and it's part of a business strategy to ensure that we mitigate our rental risks. And as I said earlier, we've added 7 new locations to the network in full year '23. And these are in really good markets, which allow us organic opportunities, and we've delivered them through organic and acquisition strategies. I'll hand over to Chris on this slide to just talk a bit more on the details of the numbers.

Sure. Thanks, Shanker. Good morning, everybody. So as Shanker said, total revenue of GBP 463 million. That represents a 2.8% total growth over FY '22, which totaled GBP 450 million, and on a like-for-like basis, a modest step back of 1.2%. I think the growth overall is reflective of the value proposition Shanker's just been through and really kind of sets out Lords' differentiation with regards to the focus on service and also the diversified end markets that we operate in. And the delta that you can see, the 4% delta between the like-for-like revenue and the total revenue, represents the consolidation opportunity that the group has with still less than 1% market share. Merchanting delivered GBP 215 million, very much reflective of the macro conditions, but I think also our divisional teams are focused on margin attainment and customer relationships. And so for us, the focus is the 2.4% step back, which we think fares very well against the market. In terms of Plumbing and Heating, I think it absolutely takes the honors for FY '23: revenue at GBP 248 million, total growth of 7.8%, like-for-like growth of 3.7%. And the division provides the group with a really kind of strong [ core slice ] of highly resilient revenue in that plumbing and heating space. My challenge to anyone when we talk about plumbing and heating is name me a household that doesn't have heating and hot water. The market is robust. It's resilient, and it's well-placed to deliver growth over the medium term through the fundamentals that Shanker spoke about in terms of decarbonizing the U.K. housing stock.

Move over to the next slide. Chris just mentioned the decarbonization of the U.K. housing stock, and I just wanted to mention the renewables and the fact that in our business, we've seen 60% sales growth in full year '23. It's widely known that the government have put an initiative to drive air source heat pump transition via a mechanism called the Clean Heat Market Mechanism. That's commenced from Q2 2024. And these incentives are in place for manufacturers and consumers to stimulate the decarbonization of the U.K. housing stock. We are very well-placed and, I would say, uniquely placed to supply it via our B2B and B2C channels. We have the infrastructure, we have the colleague expertise and we will, in due course, have the stock for this growing market and for our ability to make sure that we prosper as this market takes off. The market has -- for us, the market is supplied through 6 air source heat pump agreements that we now have in place with established brands and manufacturers. And the products are margin accretive, and they are delivered via an in-house existing network, which is the infrastructure that we have in the Plumbing and Heating division. We also reiterate our customer-first proposition. The business prospers because of our engaged colleagues, and they deliver an industry-leading service, developing loyalty and trust with our customers. This is recognized through the Feefo Platinum accreditation that we've got, and we're recognized for our superior service. This year, we were encouraged by the Builders' Merchants Awards that we received and the fact that we also received the Branch Manager of the Year award for one of our colleagues, [ Reina ] in our Beaconsfield depot. The business also has local and regional leadership via highly recognizable brands offering a multichannel online/offline experience. It's a big part of our strategy that we would like to trade with our customers how they want to trade with us, which is via our depots, via email or really just online. Whichever way our customers want to trade with us, we want to make sure that we can trade with them and give them a seamless, consistent experience across all of these channels. The customers reference greater levels of trust and relationship with our Lords Builders Merchants brands versus our national peers. And we commissioned some external market research, and that has indicated that Lords Builders Merchants outperforms versus the 5 nationally recognized merchant brands. And ultimately, all of this results in long-term customer relationships, and this has underpinned our growth and our market share opportunity. Our CAGR over the last 7 years is 25% in revenue growth. So to the outlook. As far as -- we see the fundamentals of the Lords investment proposition remains. We are on track to deliver IPO commitments. We have an experienced management team and an agile divisional structure that allows us to seize opportunities in challenging markets. This is something that we've continuously done over the last 30 years, and we are well placed to continue to do so. We have significant organic growth levers with new sites and extended product range, including renewables acceleration. And our consolidation strategy remains highly relevant. We are prudent in our execution in the short term until market dynamics improve. We've always maintained discipline in acquiring businesses, and we don't intend to change that anytime soon. And we are exceptionally well-positioned for growth as the market conditions improve. We are seeing some early signs of that, and we believe that we will benefit as the market grows heading into later part of 2024 and 2025. I will finish with the same comment. As previously mentioned on several occasions, we, at Lords, remains less than 1% of a GBP 55 billion addressable market. Thank you very much.

[Operator Instructions] But just while the team take a few moments to review those questions that were submitted already, I would like to remind you that a recording of this presentation, along with a copy of the slides and the published Q&A, can be accessed via your Investor dashboard. Chris, Shanker, obviously, we did receive a number of presubmitted questions ahead of today's event. And as you can see there in the Q&A tab as well, we've received a number of questions throughout your presentation this morning. So Chris, Shanker, if I may just hand back to you just to read out those questions and give your responses where it's appropriate to do so, and then I'll pick up from you at the end. Thank you.

Yes. Thank you. Well, we had a number of presubmitted questions. So I think, Shanker, let's go through those first and then give people time to put some questions in live. First one. You talked about organic growth. Could you give a little more detail on what the levers are?

Okay. So the following strategic growth initiatives. We've got new branch openings to expand our geographical presence and access new customers. We've previously mentioned that Mr. Central Heating and George Lines are 2 particular brands where we see great opportunities. We've got product range extension to enhance our customer proposition. That's enabling a greater share of customer wallet. Again, we've demonstrated that over the last few years, and we'll continue to do so. We've got digital expansion via our in-house team, and that generates more customers and an enhanced customer experience. We're uniquely placed by having an online and offline proposition. Online customers then get converted into offline customers in due course. And we have a long customer life cycle because the brands are very well-recognized once people shop with us and have that exceptional customer experience. And then we've got the acquisitions and the multiples that are accretive, and they add geography and product range expansions.

Okay. Next one. We'd like to hear more about the renewables opportunity and the Clean Heat Market Mechanism.

Okay. So the government's Clean Heat Market Mechanism is an initiative that is designed to accelerate the green shift of boiler manufacturers and consumers from fossil fuel-based boilers that mainly -- that have been the mainstay of the U.K. heating solution to the installation of heat pumps. Now the mechanism is due to be effective from April 2024. And the way it works is the boiler manufacturers need to generate 4% of their boiler unit sales from heat pumps in FY '24 to '25, or they can buy certain amount of credits to help them get there. And it's being enforced through a mechanism that fines them GBP 3,000 for each missed credit. And therefore, boiler manufacturers, such as Worcester Bosch, have said that this additional cost will be passed through to the client at around between sort of [ 95% ] of manufacturers [ up to ] GBP 250 [ per boiler ]. We are strategically shifting into this space in recent years. We've made significant investments in this, and we're offering a wide range of the leading heat pumps across our branches. So equally, the increased price of boilers will benefit the group's top line. And as we stated earlier, the renewables sector received 60% sales growth in our business in full year 2023, and that demonstrates the growth potential.

Right. Next question. What assurance is there for loyal shareholders that the business will grow, providing shareholder with improved investment returns? Perhaps I'll take that one, Shanker. The strength -- so I think the strength of the Lords investment case absolutely remains. I think we communicated it clearly at IPO. Shanker has taken you through it again in the first slide of today's presentation. We're a leading high-growth distributor in the U.K., and there's a clear opportunity around organic growth. And that strategy is well outlined combined with significant margin-accretive M&A opportunity. And I think there's a real track record there of acquiring at good multiples. We talked about 4 to 6x range of maintainable EBITDA. Post IPO, we've acquired an average of 4.8x maintainable EBITDA. So kind of comfortably within that range. Clearly, there's been an impact from subdued market this year and last year. But with no doubt that while the market may remain softer in FY '24, our track record of beating the market is well proven. And I think Shanker, as the CEO, has led the business through many challenging periods before over his tenure. And so I think we've got top quality investment case and an ambitious and skilled management team that can keep delivering in this market.

Okay. Thank you, Chris.

[ I will ] allow you to take the next one. The questions is, just to rephrase it slightly, we're seeking clarity on Chris Day's departure, if this will have any short-term impact on the business.

So to be clear, Chris received what he considered to be an exceptional offer in a different segment of our industry, and we wish him well. We have worked very closely together for the last 7 years, and I have nothing but admiration for our relationship as partners and for the input of Chris into the business and his assistance. But we have a formal process to find and appoint a new CFO, and that had begun already and is now at an advanced stage. As for the short-term impact, we have a strong finance function, both centrally and divisionally. These teams are more than capable of running the day-to-day accounting functions. And we would hope that the new incoming CFO will experience a direct handover as well as being supported by the existing teams.

Next one. Looking ahead, what can we expect from 2024 in terms of performance?

So Lords has delivered considerable organic and inorganic growth since IPO. And as we continue to expand the business and take market share through attracting new customers, a greater share of existing customer wallet, product range extension, new geographies, digital capability and value-added acquisitions. And as stated in the trading update, full year trading is expected to remain subdued in line with all of our peers and well known that the sector is going to remain subdued. But there are some signs of improvement in customer demand. And these -- whilst these signals remain intermittent and there is price deflation that persists, we revert back to what we always do, which is, in tough markets, we are always outperforming. And that's how we've run our business and that's how we'll continue to run our business.

What are the plans for expansion and diversification?

So we have laid that outline today. We have successfully executed 15 acquisitions in the last 5 years alone, delivering a 20% return on investment. We've built this reputation as an acquirer of choice and to position us -- ourselves strongly in a highly fragmented, independent merchant market. Now that said, we maintain a prudent and consider approach through inorganic growth. And whilst a pipeline of acquisition opportunities remain live, in the current environment, the Group is committed to balance sheet discipline, which will remain in full year '24. Right throughout from IPO, we've always maintained discipline, and we will continue to do so.

We've had a few questions on debt, including how do you see a decrease in interest rates, impacting Lords' interest expense? So, maybe, I'll take this one. We've reported net debt below market expectations today at GBP 28.5 million. Shanker has also explained how that's backed by a substantial freehold property portfolio, with an anticipated market value of not less than GBP 15 million. The net debt reduction is primarily driven by management controls and efforts around working capital and reflects, as I said, a reduction ahead of market expectations. So I think we're kind of really pleased with the position that takes us to the Group is cash generative. There's another slightly related question around covenants. I think, simply, we have substantial cash headroom. We refinanced our facilities in April 2023. And you could refer to the RNS and see the details there, but it's substantial headroom.

Thank you, Chris. We've got a question on Alloway Timber?

Yes. So with Alloway Timber, you bought a negative EBITDA business. This is a shift on your M&A strategy by buying turnaround targets. Why are you confident that you can turn it around? What's the story here?

Would you like to take that?

Well, I'll take the first half in terms of kind of track record, and then if you want to take the turnaround. So the strategy is to acquire businesses that can deliver a maintainable EBITDA position. So you heard me earlier talk about a 4x to 6x range. So that is a view effectively driven by Shanker and myself of what can this business do maintainably in the future. And that needs to be within the 4x to 6x multiple. If you look back at our history, there's a track record of acquiring loss-making businesses and quickly improving performance. I'd refer you back, if you reference our full year '22 results presentation that's available on the website, in there, we showed a whole tranche of transactions over the last -- I think it was 2016 to 2022. And within that, we specifically called out 2 loss-making transactions that we'd acquired, at the time -- loss-making at the time, that subsequently have gone on to deliver GBP 2.4 million of incremental EBITDA from the moment we acquired them to FY '22. We believe that Alloway is a transaction that's an extremely strong fit. It fits really, really well with our core Merchanting business and expands our network into the prominent South London market that we've long sought and desired.

Great. Thank you, Chris. Any more questions that have come through?

Do you just want to, Shanker, just cover in terms of the turnaround, in terms of how...

Yes. So I mean the turnaround of the business is well in place. They've got great locations in South London. It's a complementary fit to our existing locations in and around West London. So what we'll see is, as we take over active management of this business, as we have taken active management of this business, we'll focus that business on what Lords is really good at, which is excellent customer service, investing in our plant and property, and also in making sure that the customer proposition is consistent with the other Lords' branches. We've done that repeatedly with several businesses, as you've called out, in the past.

Right. Let's go to the live questions. So NDM, Group target of GBP 500 million of revenue. How reliant are you on M&A to hit this target? How would you feel if you missed the target because you decided that particular deal was overpriced or perhaps not really the right fit?

How reliant are we on M&A to hit this target? I think where we are at the moment, if you look at our numbers for full year 2023, we're at GBP 263 million. I think we've given guidance now to the market on what we expect in full year 2024. And I don't think we're reliant to just getting there via M&A. We've always maintained discipline. We will only buy businesses if they are a good fit. We have a criteria that is quite exhaustive. That criteria has been built up over a number of years and a number of deals over the last 5 years, in particular. And so we're not going to be in a position that, if we missed the target, because a deal was overpriced, that it would affect us. That's -- to hit the target just because there's a deal that will allow us to hit the target, I don't think is disciplined. And the Group prides itself on having rigorous discipline. But at the same time, I reiterate the Group is also -- also has a history of growth. So we're quite confident of being able to meet that target.

Okay. A question from Ian S. With the emphasis on balance sheet discipline, how do you plan to balance growth opportunities with financial prudence, especially in the context of M&A? And so I think I'd say that we've outlined a number of organic growth levers that are available to us, and they absolutely remain and you can see that particularly in FY '23 through Plumbing and Heating. As Shanker said, in M&A, we're not going to lunge to the GBP 500 million and make a poor decision. It's disciplined. But I think the other point to stress is we have an active pipeline of opportunities and vendors that are highly engaged with Lords and kind of understand the benefit of transacting with Lords. So that allows us to have time as our friend and not necessarily lose the opportunities.

Thank you, Chris. There's a question from Gavin L. What is the shareholder split, management and investors? So the core management will be just above 32%. And when you include the console part of it, which would include former executives, but part of it, the family, it's just about 50.5%.

Okay. Colin C. How did Lords manage its inventory and supply chain in FY '23, especially considering global supply chain disruptions? What measures are in place to mitigate similar challenges in the future?

So the inventory and supply chain challenges are always managed well because we have great relationships with our suppliers. This is a relationship-based business. And in addition to the relationships, we've demonstrated great loyalty with our suppliers. We work very closely with them. We're part of a buying group that also assists us in managing disruption. And we've got colleagues who are really good at what they do. We've had, over the last 3 years, a considerable amount of disruption. And on each occasion, we've managed to mitigate these. And in many cases, we've managed to still grow our business without there being a long-term impact. The Plumbing and Heating boiler supply shortages is a real example of a 2 to 3 months of severe disruption, yet we ended the year in growth. So we're always acutely aware that, in our industry, the supply chain is critical. And we've got lots of experience of managing. So, principally, the cost, we have a very strong relationship with our supply chain partners, manufacturers, distributors, et cetera.

I don't think the point to stress on the -- because you still hear commentary around the boiler supply problem, that was an isolated incident to FY '22, completely normalized in FY '23, and was effectively once in a 30-year event. So I think that was absolutely contained to FY 2023. NDM, a question on renewables. So they grew by 6%. But what is the annualized revenue base of renewables? How significant could CHNM be for Lords? So in terms of annualized revenue base, we've grown very quickly from less than 1% of Plumbing and Heating revenue, to in excess of 5% now over a matter of couple of years. We see strong trajectory, Clean Heat Market Mechanism and the levy that Shanker articulated. We're being prudent, and we're not expecting to be able to earn a margin on that levy. But clearly, it will drive accelerated demand because we've now got incentivized manufacturers and incentivized homeowners, and it will drive a shift towards air source heat pumps, which is, I think, Shanker explained earlier, higher value, higher margin products for us, that cannot -- that can be fulfilled from our existing network.

Got a question from Dan T. Can I ask if you have loyalty and retention schemes in place for trade customers? Yes, indeed. We do in our Lords Builders Merchants and heavy brands, also incorporating advanced roofing. We have a loyalty scheme which went live third quarter of last year. The early signs are very encouraging, and we intend to continue investing in customer loyalty in that particular scheme. But the other way we really get loyalty is we are very close to our customers, and especially the fact that the business empowers branch managers, empowers sales colleagues in our branches to really be close to their customer. And whilst that's not necessarily the scheme, but it's the very basis by which we operate, to create really strong relationship with our customers, and as a result, we get great loyalty from our customers. And that's evidenced again through the sales growth of our business. And again, in a challenging year in 2023, I think it illustrates the customer loyalty that we have.

Good. Let me share, again, if you're in the trade, pop on to the Lords Builders Merchants website and you can register for the loyalty scheme online.

Good point to make.

Another one from Dan actually. Also, can I ask who are the market share -- market shareholders at present and why they -- sorry, I think it's who are the market share leaders at present and why are they underperforming, losing market share?

So the leaders are always going to be the same that have been for a number of years. There's the Travis Perkins Group, there's Jewsons, and there's Huws Gray and Buildbase. I can't comment on why they're underperforming. That's really not my place to do so. But what I can comment, in terms of market share, is the fact that our business that we play, because we have a decentralized model. And I think that's one of the reasons why we will gain market share, is that we focus our business on colleagues in the branches. We don't have a structure that inhibits colleagues from really getting close to the customer and doing the best for the customer. We're also demonstrating that our service proposition is so strong that actually we don't have to sacrifice margin in order to gain sales. The flip side of that is, of course, we need to constantly ensure that we're investing in our people, we're investing in our premises, we're investing in our plant. And that is something that we've consistently done. We'll continuously do so, especially in a downturn. We feel that we will gain market share because we will do the things that our competitors are either unable to do or unwilling to do. And that's why we feel that our market share opportunity -- gain opportunity always exists because of the model and the focus on succeeding through colleague engagement and keeping our customers happy.

Okay. Last one. Gavin. What is the usual price you pay and how is the [indiscernible] branch performing? So we've explained that we took -- we focused on a 4x to 6x maintainable EBITDA. And as I say, you go back to the FY '22 presentation that's on our website, and we outlined a number of transactions, and that kind of pre and post performance. That's really good slide to reference. How is the branch performing? Shanker, do you want to describe the branch? I mean it sounds like Gavin might know it, but it's got a great opportunity.

Yes. So it's a unique, dense conurbation branch. It's the traditional builders merchants. Railway arches basically, but this one is now split in two. They unfortunately are not interconnected. So on the one side, on the right-hand side, if you're looking at the branch, you've got the timber side with arches and stocking massive and fantastic range of timber products. And on the left-hand side, you travel about 10, 15 meters down the road and you've got the heavy side builders merchant side, which has got bricks, blocks, aggregates, et cetera. It's really an iconic location, one that I know personally for years of living in London, driving past it, it's in a fantastic catchment area. And it's got a tremendous opportunity because there is very little in terms of local competition. Our job is to invest in that business. For a variety of reasons, it has been underinvested in our view. And that's what we're doing. We will be investing in that business that we store refit, [Technical Difficulty] and the surfacing of the business is very important. The trucks and forklifts that operate in these areas will be investing in local marketing. I think that local marketing campaign has just been launched in and around South London. Establishing our brand presence, we're trying to make sure that the customers in that area who may not have heard of us are made aware of our locations and our presence. So all in all, it's a very exciting year for those branches in South London. In particular, [indiscernible], I was there just before Christmas as I always try and visit all of our branches before Christmas. And I can assure you the spirits were fantastic. I had an architect who regularly goes to that location on the timber side. Really, really pleased that Lords has taken over and I was delighted with the way the business has looked after. And so we'll continue to do that. And I think the results will bear fruit, as they've done every time we've applied this particular strategy of investment in our people and plant and premises.

Shanker, Chris, if I may just jump back in there, thank you very much indeed for addressing all of those questions that came in from investors this morning. And of course, if there are any further questions that do come through, we'll make these available to you immediately after the presentation has ended and just for you to review and to then add any additional responses, of course, where it's appropriate to do so. And we'll publish all those responses out on the platform. But Shanker, perhaps before really just looking to redirect those on the call to provide you with their feedback, which I know is particularly important to yourself and the company, if I could please just ask you for a few closing comments to wrap up with, that would be great.

Thank you very much. Once again, thank you to everyone for attending this trading update. We are -- we have demonstrated resilience and robustness in our results, given a tough market. We're also confident that, full year 2024, we will meet our expectations. And I'd like to reiterate to everyone on this call, the business has been through significant number of downturns, it's been around for a very long period of time, and our management is extremely skilled at managing these downturns and growing. And that's what we intend to do. We look forward to updating the stakeholders again in the future.

Shanker, that's great, and Chris as well, thank you once again for updating investors this morning. Could I please ask investors not to close the session as you'll now be automatically redirected for the opportunity to provide your feedback in order that the management team can really better understand your views and expectations. This will only take a few moments to complete, but I'm sure it will be greatly valued by the company. On behalf of the management team of Lords Group Trading plc, we would like to thank you for attending today's presentation. That now concludes today's session. So good morning to you all.