LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you. Welcome to LSB Industries' second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Christy Carver, Senior Vice President and Treasurer. Thank you. You may begin.

Good morning, everyone. Joining me today are Mark Behrman, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Cheryl McGuire, our Chief Financial Officer, and Damian Renwick, our Chief Commercial Officer. Please note that today's call includes forward-looking statements. These statements are based on the company's current intent, expectations, and projections. They are not guarantees of future performance, and a variety of factors could cause the actual results to differ materially. For more information about the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied by forward-looking statements, please see the risk factors set forth in the company's most recent Annual Report, Form 10-K. On the call, we will reference non-GAAP results. Please see the press release in the Investors section of our website, lsbindustries.com. for further information regarding forward-looking statements and reconciliations of non-GAAP results to GAAP results. At this time, I'd like to go ahead and turn the call over to Mark. Thank you, Christy, and good morning, everyone.

We delivered a strong quarter both financially and operationally. Operationally, we continued to make meaningful progress in improving safety, plant reliability and operating rates, and product optimization, while also advancing several important growth initiatives that we believe will support stronger earnings and shareholder value. There are three key topics I'd like to cover today. First, the turnaround activity completed during the quarter and the expected benefits to our operating performance. Second, the changes to our ownership agreement at Eldorado for the carbon capture and sequestration project. And third, how these actions position LSB for stronger performance going forward. Starting with our turnaround activity, we successfully completed an extensive, complex turnaround of our Eldorado ammonia plant and site infrastructure during the quarter. Importantly, this work was completed on time, on budget, and injury-free, which is a strong reflection of the planning, coordination, and execution of our team. Thank you. We are already seeing the benefits of this work, with Eldorado achieving some of the highest daily production rates since we went into production in 2016. We also made the strategic decision to pull forward much of the scheduled turnaround work at our prior facility from the third quarter into the second quarter. This shifted a portion of expected turnaround-related production and earnings impacts into the second quarter, which will reduce the expected production downtime and related earnings impact for the third quarter. We successfully restarted the plants late last week and are in the process of ramping up the full production and expect to see improved reliability from that site as well. Taken together, these investments in our facilities support our goal of improving annual production and earnings, while continuing to maintain the safety standards that are essential across our operations. Turning to Eldorado, in May we announced an agreement to assume full ownership of our carbon capture and sequestration project from Lapis Carbon Solutions. The milestone-based structure of the agreement aligns the company's capital deployment with project advancement, while limiting upfront capital exposure. We continue to view this project as a meaningful long-term value creation opportunity for LSB, and I'll provide further details and an update on the project later in the call. We are in the second half of 2026 with strong momentum and a meaningfully improved operating setup. We expect to benefit from higher overall production rates at Eldorado and prior, as well as our continued focus on reliability, efficiency, and product mix optimization. We believe our improved operating platform positions us to capitalize on current market conditions, and more importantly, we believe the actions we've taken position us to drive stronger financial and operational performance through the remainder of this year and into the future. I'll turn over the call to Damien to provide more detail on the commercial environment.

Thanks Mark and good morning everyone. It's no secret that the conflict in the Middle East is having a considerable impact on our industry. More specifically, the effect this conflict is having on shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a globally critical transportation artery, has been considerable and this disruption is ongoing. Recent events make it clear that the situation remains extremely unstable, creating significant ongoing risk that may continue to impact product pricing going forward. As a reminder, shipping within the Strait alone represents about 20% of global ammonia seaborne trade, 30% of global urea trade and 45% of global sulphur trade. Beyond the backdrop of the Mideast conflict, we are seeing continued strong demand for ammonium nitrate within the industrial markets, supported by continued mining sector investments. favourable supply and demand fundamentals, further supported by ongoing producer outages, continue to underpin both spot and contract pricing. During the second quarter, we leveraged the flexibility that we've developed with our production assets to optimize our product mix. This enabled us to maximize our AN sales to support customers whose AN supply has been disrupted. We were also able to take advantage of higher than normal AN spot prices. The longer term outlook of AN demand continues to be promising. In the medium to longer term, there are several potential mining projects on the horizon across North America that will drive increased demand for AN. acquiring and aggregate production continues to grow on the strength of the U.S. economy and the as well as broader capital spending tied to AI-related infrastructure, data centres, power generation and electrification. Turning to page 5, the fertilizer market backdrop remains constructive as global supply conditions continue to evolve. Ongoing supply uncertainty, trade disruptions, and broader macro volatility continue to support a higher pricing environment. Importantly, demand for our products remains solid and the market continues to reflect limited visibility around supply availability over the near to medium term. Ammonia prices remain above historical averages despite a recent reduction in the Tampa Ammonia Price Index. Global ammonia demand has softened, especially for phosphate use, as phosphate producers have curtailed production amid elevated sulfur costs. The resulting decline in ammonia demand balances some of the loss of supply that typically transits the Strait of Hormuz. However, the recent resumption of military activity in the Middle East is disrupting fertilizer supply once again. causing global natural gas prices to increase. European TTF natural gas prices have been above $19 and even $20 per mmBtu in recent days, increasing European ammonia production costs to nearly $700 per metric tonne. European natural gas inventories also continue to fall short of five-year lows as the market struggles to restock ahead of the critical winter season due to limited LNG supply. This will further pressure global natural gas prices and exacerbate the spread between global prices and US domestic prices. This underpins the significant and structural production cost advantage for US ammonia producers. We therefore believe that ammonia prices will continue to see upward pressure through the duration of the closure of the strait, driving strong margins for our business at a time where US natural gas prices continue to be significantly cheaper than elsewhere. Urea ammonium nitrate pricing remains favourable. Urea prices have strengthened from their current year lows in June And UAN has found stability after typical July summer price reset. We continue to expect strong demand for UAN in the second half of 2026, ahead of the 2027 spring planting season. We saw strong uptake on ammonia and UAN US summer fill programs through June and July, and we are pleased with both the volumes and prices we achieved for our forward sales. Our order book is also well placed with flexibility to take advantage of improving prices over the coming months through the fall prepay and winter fill programs. The USDA is projecting more than 95 million planted corn acres for the 2026-27 marketing season. More importantly, however, in July, the USDA reduced its forecast for 2027 global ending stocks for corn to what will be the lowest level seen in over a decade. Global corn demand continues to run ahead of supply. Extreme heat and dry conditions have crippled European and regional crops. China continues to destock as consumption outpaces domestic production. And finally, stocks are declining across most major exporters, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa and Ukraine, as well as the US. As a result, we are seeing corn futures pricing increase strongly. We expect this to incentivise US farmers to increase planted acres in the coming season, which will, in turn, be very constructive for nitrogen demand into 2027. As we look ahead, the global nitrogen supply backdrop remains uncertain, with limited visibility around the timing and pace of potential production restarts from Russian plants damaged by Ukrainian drone attacks and Middle Eastern producers impacted by the Iranian conflict. While some capacity may return over time, we have not yet seen meaningful volumes re-enter the market, and the operating status of several facilities remain unclear. As a result, we believe the market continues to be supported by a relatively tight supply environment and high non-US natural gas and energy prices. The market is still in a position We also suspect that the new and elevated risk premiums attached to the supply of nitrogen, sulphur and energy products coming from the Middle East could become a new reality going forward. Taken together, we expect product pricing to remain favourable with the strong potential for a further rebound in Q4. our turnaround activities at Eldorado and Pryor behind us, we will have a lot of momentum going into the fourth quarter on production volumes, and the potential re-strengthening of fertiliser prices. Now I'll turn the call over to Cheryl to discuss our second quarter financial results and our outlook.

Carol? Thanks, Damian, and good morning. On page six, you'll see a summary of our second quarter 2026 financial results. As Mark highlighted earlier, we had planned turnaround activity at both our El Dorado and prior facilities during the quarter, which temporarily reduced ammonia and UAN production volumes. However, this impact was more than offset by higher product pricing and our ability to maximize product mix. Page 7 provides some color to the quarter-over-quarter results, bridging our second quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $38 million to our second quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $53 million, representing an increase of approximately 40%. As shown on this slide, our second quarter results were impacted by an estimated 35 million to 40 million from planned turnaround activity at both our El Dorado and prior facilities. Most of that impact was related to the El Dorado facility turnaround, which was planned for the second quarter. At our prior facility, we made the strategic decision to pull forward turnaround work that was originally scheduled for the third quarter. At Excluding the estimated impact from both turnarounds, Illustrative second quarter adjusted EBITDA is approximately 90 million. Stepping back, even with this significant planned turnaround activity, we generated 200 million of adjusted EBITDA on a trailing 12-month basis as of June 30th. We believe that is an important reference point as we evaluate the earnings power of the business across different market environments and cycles. While the turnarounds affected second quarter results, they do not change how we are thinking about full-year production in any meaningful way. The prior pull forward shifted some production and earnings impact into Q2, but it also reduced expected downtime and expected EBITDA impact in Q3. As Mark mentioned, the prior facility restarted late last week and is in the process of ramping up to full rates. We believe the work completed positions both facilities for stronger, more reliable performance going forward. Lastly, on page 8, you can see that our balance sheet remains solid, with approximately $220 million in cash at the end of the second quarter and net leverage at 1.1 times. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $59 million. After subtracting $27 million of sustaining capital, the capital required to maintain our operations, our free cash flow was approximately $32 million. Additionally, we invested approximately $13 million in growth-related projects, including approximately $11 million related to the acquisition and development of the carbon capture project at our El Dorado facility. Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026, demand remains strong and prices remain elevated. With major turnaround activity substantially complete, we expect to operate at higher production rates and are positioned to maximize production for the balance of the year. Pricing remains favorable, although moderated somewhat from first-half highs. Tampa ammonia settled at $635 per metric ton for August, and NOLA UAN is currently trading around $300 per ton. While natural gas costs have averaged approximately $3.20 per MMB total, thus far in the third quarter. Putting it all together, we expect a positive second half of the year, putting us on track to meet or exceed our annual production targets.

And now I'll turn it back over to Mark. Thank you, Cheryl. Turning to page nine, as I noted earlier, we recently announced our agreement to assume full ownership of our Eldorado carbon capture and sequestration project. To quickly recap, our investment is being made in stages, tied to key milestones as we focus on project development, permitting construction, ownership of the project provides us with enhanced commercial flexibility to optimize the use of our CO2 as we evaluate future expansion opportunities without limitations. We continue to work closely with senior officials from the EPA's Region 6 Office with the expectations of beginning operations in Q1 2027. When fully operational, we expect to generate between $25 and $30 million of annual earnings and cash flow, net of any operating costs associated with CCS operations. Our commercial team continues to pursue low-carbon product supply opportunities where we can generate premiums for those products, as well as evaluate the potential to sell environmental attributes generated. We're excited as we are getting closer to completing our project and realizing our vision of decarbonizing ammonia. I want to take a moment to congratulate our teams at both our Eldorado and prior sites on the execution of highly complex turnarounds at each of these facilities. I continue to be impressed by the hard work, professionalism, and dedication of our teams as they work to improve the safety and reliability of our facilities. We have focused intensely on reliability over the past several years and we are seeing great results in terms of higher production rates and improved product mix. improved production performance is translating into consistently higher EBITDA, and we're not done. As we continue to invest in our business, we expect to see continued improvement in our overall production performance. IN ADDITION TO THE FINANCIAL BENEFIT OF OUR CCS PROJECT, EARLIER THIS YEAR WE LAID OUT A PATH TO AN ADDITIONAL 35 MILLION OF ANNUAL EBITDA THROUGH SPECIFIC INITIATIVES INCLUDING PRODUCTION TARGETS, PROCESS EFFICIENCIES, AND COST OPTIMIZATION. A GOOD PORTION OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE REALIZED BY THE END OF THIS YEAR WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT of the balance coming by the end of 2027. As part of our disciplined capital allocation strategy, we continue to evaluate opportunities to invest in expansion projects that we believe will create attractive long-term value for our shareholders. As we discussed previously, we continue to advance the feasibility for a potential ammonia expansion at our Eldorado facility. Based on our current timeline, we expect to complete our feed study and make final investment decision during the second quarter of 2027 with the project targeted for completion alongside our planned 2029 turnaround at our El Dorado site. The total project cost is expected to be between $135 to $150 million. However, we've already been awarded a USDA grant that would fund approximately 20% of the total project cost. So we expect our net project cost will be between $105 to $120 million, reducing our required investment and further enhancing the project's economics. We anticipate that this project would be funded with existing cash on our balance sheet. Upon completion, we expect the expansion to add approximately 100,000 tons of annual ammonia production capacity, which we estimate could generate roughly 20 million of incremental annual EBITDA, of course, depending on ammonia market pricing. I also want to point out that the capital cost per ton added is significantly below current new build capital costs. We have several other capacity expansion projects that we are exploring and we will provide more details as we move along in our evaluation process. Overall, we are well positioned to expand domestic fertilizer production, strengthen our competitive position, and create additional value for our shareholders. We look forward to updating you as these projects progress. With respect to the market, the ever-evolving nature of geopolitics, including the Middle East conflict, will continue to impact our industry, whether it's the disruption of important trade channels like the Strait of Hormuz, or by limiting the global availability of products like nitrogen fertilizers. As a business, we must navigate these impacts and support our customers in the best way possible, while also ensuring we continue to build shareholder value. Our improved operating performance and ability to optimize our product mix enables us to ensure we can support our customers in both the industrial and agricultural sides of our business as market conditions warrant. We are encouraged by our continued execution across the business and believe it helps us to continue supporting our customers and to deliver sustainable growth and long-term value creation for our shareholders. Before we open it up for questions, I'd like to mention that Cheryl and Damian will be attending the UBS and Jeffries Industrial Conferences in New York on September 9th and 10th. We look forward to speaking with some of you at these events. That concludes our prepared remarks and we'll now be happy to answer any of your questions. Thank you.

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. Thank you. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Our first question is from Andrew Wong with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just regarding the El Dorado expansion project, I was wondering, adding extra ammonia volumes at a pretty low cost sounds good. Would you also be considering adding some logistics and distribution to sell those extra volumes so you get the best price available?.

Good morning, Andrew. Yes, actually, inside the cost that I quoted is.

some infrastructure build out to support that expansion. Okay, and then as we think about that project, like that ammonia, what's the marketing like for that? Where does it go?.

I think we have three years to try and figure that out. We have options today, and I think what we'd like to do is figure out how do we get the best margin that we can on those 100,000 tons. know that I can give you an answer today. I mean, we sell about 200,000 tons of merchant ammonia today, and we certainly have the potential to add to that, but.

there may be okay that's fair and then just with the two big turnarounds this year how much of that work that was done should help drive costs lower into 2027 and beyond. And can we expect to see the per ton controllable cost to trend lower from here? Yes.

Oh, yes, I think we should see a slowing of increasing in costs. I mean, we're going to see. Unfortunately, inflation every year, right? So that's going to offset some of the savings that we have. But I do think on a cost per ton basis, if we're producing more tons, you should see you know, our cost per ton going down, and that would be the expectation.

Okay, appreciate that. Thank you, Mark. Yes. Our next question is from Lucas Boma with UBS. Please proceed.

Thanks, good morning. So we've seen prices come off a lot rapidly post the season, I guess as buyers were looking looking to, they didn't really want to get ahead of future expected pricing declines that was still sort of potentially coming. But I mean, we're sort of seeing that start to stabilize now. In recent weeks, you know, Eurea's kind of moved up a little on the increased kind of Middle East tensions and UAN has sort of stabilized up to sort of resetting. low with the summer fill pricing. I mean, one of the key kind of discussion areas has sort of been like how much, it's sort of what level pricing is actually being realized compared to sort of where the benchmarks are. So could you maybe just tell us what you're seeing on the ground and in terms of your order book and what your expectations are?.

out of there for going into the food corner. I'm going to let Damien start with this. Yes, good morning, Lucas.

that's a that's a tricky one to answer I think you know where our plants are positioned you get some inland benefits on a premium compared to NOLA. So, and we're seeing that, although the market is relatively quiet at the moment, right? We've just come off fill programs for both the MANIA and UAN, and we're all gearing up to start moving those tons to our customers. And then we're well-placed, basically, with low inventory, carry-out inventory, to really pick when and how we choose to participate going forward as those prices appreciate, which we're pretty confident will happen as we move into fall and then spring into next year. I mean, would you say that we've seen some price appreciation since Phil? Yes, I mean, Lucas pointed it out. We have seen, particularly with UAN, coming out of Phil it's rebounded quite nicely and we're pretty happy with where those prices are at into the you know 300s a ton and.