Lumo Kodit Oyj (LUMO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and welcome. This is Kojamo's Half Year Results News Conference. I'm Niina Saarto from Investor Relations. Today, I have with me CEO, Jani Nieminen; and CFO, Erik Hjelt. They will shortly present the first 6 months figures and the outlook for the whole year. Also, Jani will tell us about the market situation. [Operator Instructions] Now it's time for the presentation. Jani, welcome.

Thank you, Niina, and good morning, everybody. We will provide today, of course, color on the operational environment, then on key financial figures and then more detailed color on the financial development by our CFO, Erik Hjelt, and then, of course, go through the outlook and the financial targets at the end. So I will start by covering the operational environment and then the key figures. As a summary, if you think about what's been going on during the first 6 months this year, we have been able to increase the total revenue and net rental income against the comparison period. On the other hand, financial occupancy rate decreased from comparison period. There, as we've been saying, we have seen a typical seasonality. On the other hand, still that occupancies tend to go down towards the summer, and then they tend to pick up speed. On the other hand, the correction of oversupply situation in the market has been delayed. There's still plenty of supply and intense competition throughout the market. On the other hand then, if we look forward, we do see things changing as there will be a very limited number of new supply coming to the market from new development projects. Funds from operations decreased due to the finance expenses and maintenance expenses. Of course, then it's good to keep in mind that last year, we had a positive impact, EUR 8.9 million, from the repurchase of bonds. On the maintenance side, one big fact was that the winter was very harsh until the end of April, and that impacted especially heating costs. Saving program is progressing according to the plan. So all the measures have already been taken, and all the things are progressing without any surprises there. Balance sheet is strong, and our financial key figures and liquidity situation have remained good. Good to keep in mind that all the maturing loans 2024, 2025 are already covered. In the transaction market, there's been only a handful of transactions. It's still kind of muted. We don't see a lot of activities there. But we made a change in the yield requirements, and there was an uplift of 10 basis points to meet transactions, which have been made in the market. On the other hand, we do see that the decrease in interest rates reduces the pressure to change the yield requirements toward the future. So let's see what's going to happen, but that's how we see it at the moment. Then moving to Page 5 and the bigger-picture operational environment. The outlook for the global economy is improving as inflation is slowing and real incomes are growing. Here in Finland, the economy is not expected to grow this year on an annual level. On the other hand, we estimate that economic growth is expected to start this year. Because of this situation, the employment will decrease slightly this year but will grow from next year, backed by increased demand and government measures. On the chart on the right-hand side, typical figures, I would say that housing trade volumes are still muted. Estimates, what's going to happen with the home prices, transaction prices where people buy homes are quite flattish. It seems that the price is still under pressure for homebuyers to start buying homes, and most likely, we do see prices going down during this year. Rents are quite flat in the market as the competition is intense. We see only slight increases throughout the marketing in some of the places. A big impact towards our operational environment comes from housing production, and residential start-ups plummeted last year and are estimated to decline this year as well. On the right-hand side, bottom corner, I would focus on the dark blue color. We used to have more than 20,000 start-ups with nonsubsidized block of flats. And those projects are still to be completed to the market. Some of those started 2021, 2022. On the other hand, only 3,000 apartments were started '23, and the estimate for this year is 2,000. So now looking forward, not many commercial block of flats will come to the market, 2025, 2026, and most likely the rate, same will remain 2027. And that's going to impact our market moving forward. Of course, if we think about the lighter blue color, there is -- I met the question of what does it include? So it includes subsidized housing, single-family houses and row houses. The government measure has been to back construction business in that sense that the estimate now is that the light blue color is a bit taller -- a higher number this year. So we most likely see about 1,000 more units subsidized homes to be started this year according to the latest estimates. So on the other hand, looking forward, supply entering the market will be very limited. On the other hand, the correction has not yet started. And there's still an oversupply in the market. But if we combine these 2 factors, and we know that the cities are growing, urbanization is continuing, the supply will decline sharply looking forward. Home sizes, household sizes are backing up the demand. So we do have an increasing number of 1- and 2-person households. Megatrends are still valid, people moving towards the biggest cities. We do see a healthy, strong population growth in cities like Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa, Tampere and Turku. And there, for example, in Helsinki, of course, net immigration plays an important role. In the city of Helsinki during the last 12 months, 75% of the population growth comes from immigration. So immigration is a strong factor at the moment. And we do see still an increasing number or share households renting the apartments. So that will improve the market for us looking forward. Moving to Page 8 and our key figures. Total revenue EUR 225.6 million. Against comparison year, the growth was 3.9%, driven mainly by apartments completed to the market. Yes, we did have a slight like-for-like growth as well but mainly driven by the completed apartments. Net rental income, EUR 142.7 million, increased against comparison year by 3%. Of course, total revenue growth helped. On the other hand, if we think about the cost side, amount of euro spent in repairs was now EUR 2.4 million less than a year ago. On the other hand, maintenance expenses grew by EUR 6.7 million, impacted mainly by, I would say, 3 factors. One is the portfolio growth impacting a bit more than EUR 2 million. Then the harsh winter provided increase in water and heating, roughly EUR 3 million, and then property taxes a bit more than EUR 1 million. Then FFO, funds from operations, EUR 68.2 million. Of course, there has been an increase in financial costs, and that's been impacting FFO. Then fair value of investment properties, EUR 7.9 billion. As said, there's now during Q3 a change in yield requirements, 10 basis points, and that impacted the fair values as well. According to the saving program, we are not making any new investment decisions. We are not starting new modernization investment, and that's impacting strongly the volumes in our gross investments, now only EUR 19.3 million so far this year. Of that EUR 19.3 million, new development investments, EUR 11.8 million; and modernization investments, EUR 7.5 million. And as I said, after June, we don't have any projects under construction at the moment. Profit, excluding changes in value, EUR 73.9 million. Of course, that result was impacted by increase in financial cost and maintenance cost. Then profit/loss before taxes, there, it's good to keep in mind that the fair value change is now -- was minus EUR 138.5 million (sic) [ EUR 138.8 million ], and the comparison year, the figure was positive EUR 5.1 million. So that made the biggest difference there. A couple of words. What's Lumo? Our approach has been, for several years, the same since we created Lumo brand a decade ago. We want to provide easy, effortless living for our clients. Our aim is to provide added value by combining apartments, common spaces and services, both physical and digital. The Net Promoter Score at the moment was 53. I'm happy with that. Of course, I do believe that we are still able to improve the figure. And as digitalization plays an important role in services, happy to say that at the moment, 87% of all our tenants use My Lumo services. So it's well used, well accepted, provides value for the customers. On Page 10, carbon neutrality, sustainability. I always say that sustainability is part of our company's DNA. So always -- it has always played an important role for us. It's embedded in all our operations. And we are committed to carbon-neutral energy use in our properties by 2030. So annual target is to reduce 5% until the end of 2025. So far, we've been, all the time, ahead of our targets. We are progressing well. And if we look at the chart on the bottom, we're halfway through already. I think one thing I have not been mentioning that we've been able to cut down our carbon dioxide emissions by half without spending any additional CapEx. And of course, all our property electricity is carbon neutral. So how to reduce carbon dioxide and reach our target, it's a combination of 4 angles. Of course, consumer behavior, how to change that. We are close to our tenants, with our property management, our personnel, our communications. Then how to utilize technology. As said, a good example has been our AI technology in optimizing heating. We've been able to transfer data into a currency. So we are giving data to Vantaa Energy, and they are providing carbon-free district heating without additional cost. Of course, measures by -- of our partners play an important role. Happy to see that this district heating company share the common target to be carbon neutral, and that's helping us a lot. And then, of course, our other own measures, whether they are geothermal heating, solar panels or, for example, next-to-zero-energy building, which we started already 7, 8 years ago. So good progress there. And now if our CFO, Erik, would come and provide color on detailed figures. Thank you.

Thank you, Jani, and good morning, everybody, from my side as well. So Page 12, the top line growth was EUR 8.5 million during the H1 from the corresponding period. And Q2, part of that was EUR 3.4 million. By far, the biggest portion of that growth came through the completed apartments, 2024 completed and especially 2023 completed apartments. Like-for-like rental growth was still positive, slight contribution there as well, so 0.9%. And increase in rents and water charges contributed 0.9%. And occupancy, positive 0.2%. And then on the negative side, other items, 0.2%. Net rental income side, so the growth was EUR 4.2 million during the H1, and Q2, part of that was EUR 3.1 million. So that underlines the fact that maintenance expenses were impacted for the harsh winter, especially during Q1. So maintenance expenses grew EUR 6.7 million and EUR 2.4 million during Q2. And repairs were down by EUR 2.4 million as part of the saving program. So the main growth items in maintenance expenses were growing the portfolio, of course, EUR 2.2 million; property taxes, EUR 1.1 million; and then heating and water, together, EUR 3 million. So Page 13. On the right-hand side, FFO, down by EUR 12.3 million. Of course, top line contributed a positive EUR 8.5 million; a decrease, EUR 2.4 million; maintenance up by EUR 6.7 million, as I said. And the biggest growing item there was -- on the expense side was financial expenses, up by EUR 21.2 million. In corresponding period, we repurchased a bond contributing EUR 8.9 million positive. So if we exclude that from the finance cost on corresponding period, then the increase in finance expenses was EUR 12.3 million. And biggest driver there, of course, is the average interest rate in our portfolio, went up to 3.2% from 2.4% from the corresponding period because of refinancing. So the refinancing is made on a higher level compared to those ones that are paid back. So financial occupancy as Jani mentioned, down slightly because of the oversupply in the market, especially, and down by 0.5% from the corresponding period and 1.3% from year-end. And tenant turnover, slightly up 0.8%. I think like-for-like rental income, we already covered. So on Page 16, the saving program, proceeding as planned. As Jani already mentioned, on the investment side, EUR 19.3 million. By far, the biggest portion of that was the ongoing -- only ongoing development that was completed at the end of June, 113 apartments. And as we speak, we don't have any ongoing developments. We do have one binding agreement. And on the modernization investment and repairs side, so the modernization investments are down by EUR 10.3 million from corresponding period and repairs, EUR 2.4 million from the corresponding periods, as planned, as part of the saving program. Page 17. Jani mentioned that we slightly increased the yield requirement. There were actually a limited amount of transactions in the market, and most of them are -- [ seller were ] open-ended resi funds, so highly motivated transactions. And these yields that we applied at the end of H1 are now reflecting all transactions, whether they are really comparable or not, but all completed transactions are now reflecting in this yield requirement. And going forward, of course, interest rates already came down, but expectations in the market is that going forward, the interest rates will come down further. And of course, that takes away the -- or helps the pressure of chasing yield requirement going forward. There was, on a positive side, a EUR 34.3 million impact. And by far, the biggest portion of that came through from ending restrictions. So apartments came out of the restrictions. We still have 404 apartments where there are restrictions regarding the valuations, and those restrictions will gradually end by the end of this year, contributing EUR 20 million to EUR 40 million uplift in values. Equity ratio, loan-to-value. Still, the balance sheet remained strong is the key message here. And then Page 19, loan maturities. So the key here is that 2024, 2025 maturing loans are all covered. And there's 2 big reason behind that statement. One is that at the end of H1, we had at EUR 328 million cash or cash equivalent items. And as part of the saving program, we don't have any major investments going on. And then the FFO is left to use -- to be used to pay back loans. So these 2 items covers all loans maturing 2024 and 2025. On the right-hand side, the interest-bearing liabilities, a little more than EUR 3.8 billion. It's good to note that that's gross. So if you look net debt, so that came down to EUR 3.561 million (sic) [ EUR 3.561 billion ] if you take into account the cash and cash equivalent items. And we didn't do any real new loan agreements during Q2, but several activities there otherwise. So in January, we issued this EUR 200 million bond. In March, we made EUR 250 million loan, and that was drawn, and then we draw a EUR 425 million syndicated loan paid already last year, and it was drawn this year, and we paid back this EUR 434.5 million bond in June. Equity per share, primarily not major changes from the year-end figures. And then Page 22, our outlook. So we reiterate the outlook we issued in mid-July. Now we estimate that top line growth this year will be between 2% and 4%. And if you take the midpoint of that range, so completed apartments will contribute 3%-ish growth. And then we expect in the midpoint of this guidance that the occupancy will improve moderately during the H2 but still be below the level in corresponding period. Then on the FFO guidance side, EUR 142 million-EUR 152 million. The midpoint in that FFO guidance reflects the midpoint of the top line growth guidance. And then we took into account that no new financing arrangement will be done during this year. Normal weather during the second half of this year and the saving program proceeding as planned. And then the low end of that FFO range reflects the lower end of the top line growth guidance. And again, the upper end of the FFO guidance reflects the upper end of the top line growth guidance. A couple notes regarding our strategic KPIs. So top line growth, 3.9%; annual investments, down by EUR 19.3 million as part of the saving program. FFO against total revenue, EUR 30.2 million. There, it's good to note that the whole year's property taxes are booked during Q1, and that was EUR 15 million in total. Loan-to-value, equity ratio, I said, still strong. And Net Promoter Score, high level of 53% (sic) [ 53 ]. And now back to Jani.

Thank you, Erik. So I would say that even though there's tough competition ongoing in the market, we were able to increase both total revenues and net rental income. Of course, FFO was impacted by interest levels. The balance sheet is still strong. Financial key figures and liquidity situation remained good. All loans '24, '25 covered. So in that sense, we can follow what's going to happen in the financing market. Saving program is progressing according to the plan. We're very happy with that. Then, of course, lower supply situation in the market did not start to dissipate yet. I would say that the rental market with oversupply situation is estimated to start improving this year, and that will continue next year as well. And our renting in July and August is roughly on the same level than last year and very in line with our latest outlook. So in that sense, now we do have some kind of visibility of what's going to happen towards the future. Still a bit hard to say an exact date when the turn point will be from oversupply to undersupply but moving towards that time. Thank you. And now we could move towards the Q&A.

Okay. Thank you, Jani and Erik. And do we have any questions? Yes, we have first question from the room here.

Yes. Anssi Raussi from SEB. And a few questions from me. Maybe I start with your occupancy. And if we compare your ratio to your competitors' numbers, we can see that you might have been a bit more disciplined with your rents. But now if the situation does not get better, let's say, during the latter half of this year, are you still willing to maybe sacrifice a bit of your occupancy and hold on to your rents? Or how do you see the combination of this?

Yes. Thank you for the question, first of all. Of course, I would say, all the players do have their own strategies. We estimated that the market would have been picking up a bit more speed even now during the summertime, and we did increase rents a bit more already during the first part of the year, started pushing up rents. And the oversupply situation was tough. And so we were, I would say, a bit too early. And that's something we have to follow. Aim is now to improve occupancy but not let go with the rental increases in whole. But of course, we have to follow the market pricing. So I would say, kind of dynamic pricing, you have to be really hands on daily basis with the market condition, find the micro locations where you're able to push the rents and then identify those situations where it's now, for some time, a matter of pricing.

Yes. And maybe the next one about your fair values. A difficult question, but you took those values down a bit now. And how do you see it? Like, are you done now? Or what kind of discussions you have had with your external appraiser? And of course, it's depending on transactions in the market, but how do you see the situation?

As I provided color and Erik as well, of course, you are not able to give a full promise and decide what the other buyers in the market will do for the rest of the year or for the rest of a couple years. But as said, we have seen interest cuts, and interest rates are estimated to keep on going further down. And that will take at least pressure away from yield requirements to go more up. And on the other hand, I said all the transactions in the market were included in the valuation now. So there's been, yes, on the other hand, a handful. But in that handful of transactions, some of the transactions, I would call at least highly motivated transactions. So what can I say? As said, we don't see an increase in pressure, at least towards the yield requirements. We do see decreasing pressure towards the yield requirements.

That's clear. And the last one from me. I continue with the easy questions, so about your dividend. We don't know the future, but the -- and dates. Maybe a bit too early, but how do you see -- can you continue with zero dividend? Is it any problem? And if necessary, I guess, you're ready to do that.

I would say that, yes, we came out a year ago during the autumn already with the full package, so to say. And the dividend decision was part of that whole saving program package. Typically, the dividend decision has its own time and place, and it's not yet. On the other hand, we've been quite clear with our message: we will defend our investment-grade rating, and we are ready to take all measures needed.

Okay. Next, we can move onto phone line questions. [Operator Instructions] First, we have John Vuong from Kempen. Can you hear us, John?

Yes. Can you hear me? In your report, you mentioned that renting in July and August has been supportive for guidance. Could you perhaps provide a bit more color on that? Does that essentially mean that this H1 like-for-like print is the trough, and it should improve from here?

Thank you for the question. I'm sure whether -- you were able to hear I provided that color that our number of new tenant agreements in July and in August are roughly on the same level than a year ago. And a year ago, we did say that we were quite happy with our renting and provided color concerning the estimate that there's a slight improvement embedded in our estimates.

Then perhaps related to tenant churn, is that stabilizing in July and August, if you square that against the new tenant agreements?

It looks to be stabilized on the same level. It has now been, I would say, slightly elevated in that comparison year but nothing significant.

Okay. That's clear. And then perhaps on the investment markets, you just mentioned that there were highly motivated transactions that were cleared in H1. Just looking at what's still at offer. Are all the highly motivated transaction cleared? Or are there still more in the markets that you're aware of?

I would say that there's still potential for highly motivated sales processes. There's pressure towards some of the open-ended resi funds. And I think it's not my position to provide any additional color there. We know that some processes are ongoing. And according to our understanding and discussions with the brokers, the pricing levels are quite matching with the deals done previously. So it would indicate that nothing -- no big changes there now at the moment.

Okay. That's clear. And just a last one on occupancy. I mean you have been quite vocal that you want to improve it going forward. What should perhaps be the right level for, say, the next 2 or 3 years in terms of occupancy?

I would say, in my eyes, let's say, 2 to 3 years, we're going to hit numbers like 96% again. 96%, 97%, somewhere between there.

Okay. That's clear. And do you need to do any -- provide any incentives to get new tenants into that level?

Looking forward, easy answer, no, because we will face a totally different operational environment with lowering supply in the market. As said, on the other hand, today, we do see intense competition in the market. And some of our competitors are quite ready to provide, I would say, generous campaigns at the moment, and we have to fight in that environment at the moment.

Thank you. Next, we will take some questions from the chat. So first one is about the liquidity position, as we have mentioned, that we have '24, '25 loans covered. But what do you expect for H2? Do you expect to do some refinancing that could impact the FFO guidance, new loans?

So as I said, all 2024, 2025 maturing loans are now covered. So the next one we are looking is 2026 maturing loan, and there's still plenty of time for that. So we haven't decided yet, but it looks that we don't need to do any refinancing during H2. So next year, of course, we want to approach that 2026 maturing loan.

Then can you remind what the EUR 34.3 million gain in the valuation of the investment properties was about?

So biggest -- by far, the biggest portion of that was apartments came -- that came out of the restrictions. So we had a part of the portfolio apartments where we have restrictions regarding the valuation. So when those restrictions end, we start to apply the valuation technique that we use, the biggest portion of the portfolio. And that gives a nice uplift in value, and we still have 404 apartments where we have these restrictions, and those restrictions will end by the end of this year, providing an additional EUR 20 million to EUR 40 million positive uplift in value. So ending restriction is the reason we have that positive impact in valuation.

We continue with the valuation theme. So do you do the valuation internally or externally?

Actually both. So we do -- every quarter, we do it internally. And on top of that, every quarter, the external experts giving -- being Jones Lang LaSalle gives a statement for values -- our values.

In the valuation parameters, we assume 97.2% occupancy rate on group level. And as the occupancy has been below this for some time, how should we look at this in the medium term?

I think there it's good to keep in mind that the parameters are for the next 10 years all the time. And looking forward, the operational environment is improving a lot. On the other hand, it's good to keep in mind that there is also a parameter that all the vacant apartments in capital region are kept vacant for the next 12 months. So it's not only about the occupancy parameter. It's as well keeping the empty apartments empty in the valuation.

Then about rent increases in 2025, what kind of a level are you viewing at the moment?

I would say that today is not the day to provide yet comments on rental increases 2025. But as I said, we've been digging and digging data. What's going to happen in Finland city by city, it's not an easy task to find all the construction projects and their timing. But the market is improving. There will be less and less supply. Urbanization is ongoing. So oversupply situation, as said, will start to go away already this year. It will continue next year. That will improve the rental market, and that will back higher rental increases.

Then about disposals as the market has been fairly inactive so far this year. Do you have any disposal target?

We don't have a set target to provide here, but we already said a year ago that as a part of the saving program, disposals are a possibility and something we may end up doing. At the moment, the balance sheet is strong. All the loans maturing '24, '25 are covered. So we are not between a rock and a hard place and have to sell today at any cost. But we are scanning the market. And if there's appetite in the market, pricing is reasonable, we will make disposals. Whether it's autumn or winter or spring, in my eyes, it's not that important. It's like finding the right portfolio to be sold, finding the right buyers to pay the right pricing.

Then about financing. Hedging ratio came down to 78%. Can you elaborate your hedging strategy?

So the strategy is that all the times between 50% and 100% have to be hedged. And we've been on the conservative side historically. And this level at the end of H1 is again quite conservative. And now we are looking at the, of course, the market and expectations for interest rate declining, and we are ready to do some swaps, but 50% to 100% at all times.

Then about maturing loans, there is a question about committed credit facilities. Do you see you need to use them to pay back loans?

Actually no, because the cash position and then FFO and the saving program together covers the 2024 and 2025 maturing loans. So we don't calculate our plans that we need to use this committed unused credit facilities for repayment.

Okay. Clear. Then actually, the final question about Moody's and the rating. Any news from that side?

Nothing there. So we haven't been discussing with those guys lately, and we have set the next meeting in 2 or 3 months' time. So we haven't been discussing, as said, with those guys.

Okay. Thank you. It seems that we have one additional question from this room here?

Yes. Anssi Raussi again from SEB. One more question from me. If you think about the legislation in Finland and we know that there were some changes in the housing allowance system. And now we know that there might be some limits for tenant incomes starting from early 2025 in subsidies -- subsidized apartments, like how do you see the dynamics? And are these like important to you? Or do you feel that you're like having a fierce competition with the city of Helsinki apartments?

I would say that we don't place our business based on subsidies. The typical tenant we aim for is not receiving subsidies. It's an individual moving towards a big city in order to start working. Nevertheless, even if we don't follow and when we don't follow who's receiving subsidies or not, some of the clients do receive subsidies. These changes, they go through the whole market. So it's not impacting only Kojamo. It's impacting the whole market. So in that sense, I don't see it changing the market. I read the newspaper during the last 2 weeks, and I would say there's kind of challenge coming that as the city of Helsinki already provided information about rental increases 2025, they are breaking the limit with the accepted maximum cost on monthly basis. And that should be the -- cheap is our most affordable living for low-income people, and I think in those cases, the challenges are the biggest. But that's something we have to follow. Is it going to impact the market? Easy to say, at least not yet. Kind of a couple of scenarios. Will students start working a bit more with -- along with their studies? Would there be a new phenomena that co-living would increase? That's something we'll have to follow, but nothing yet.

Okay, then thank you for all the questions. Our Q3 numbers are out on 7th of November. Thank you all for joining us today, and see you then in November. Thank you. Bye-bye.