Lumo Kodit Oyj (LUMO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and welcome. This is Kojamo, and this is our full year results webcast. I'm Niina Saarto, I'm from Investor Relations. And today, I have with me our Interim CEO, Erik Hjelt. He will shortly present the last year's figures, and then we will hear about the operating environment. Finally, he'll share us the outlook for the current year. Please send us questions. You can do that via chat throughout the presentation. And then in the Q&A, which is after the presentation, we will also take questions from the phone line. Now I think we are good to go. So I will hand over to you, Erik.

Thank you, Niina, and good morning, everybody, from my side as well. So thrilled to discuss about Kojamo's last year. And on Page 4, we have the highlights of the year. So total revenue and net rental income grew in 2024. The top line growth was 2.3% and the net rental income grew by 0.1%. We were able to improve our occupancy. So during the fourth quarter, the improvement was 30 basis points compared to third quarter, and this was despite of the normal seasonality and the still oversupply in the market. And if you just look Q4, so the December was the strongest month in Q4. And I say there's still oversupply in the rental market, especially in capital region, but expectations are that the market will balance out, and this is because of the historically low amount of resi start-ups what we see in the market, and the population growth has accelerated in bigger cities. FFO decreased last year, mainly because of the finance expenses [ had rise ] and then maintenance expenses were on a higher level compared to previous year. Our saving program was implemented according to the plan, both P&L impacted mainly repairs and SG&A expenses, savings there and investments as well. So they were a very low level compared to previous years. Our financial position is secured. So we are in quite strong position there. All this year, maturing loans are already covered. And the next one we are looking is to refinance the 2026 maturing loans. If you then look at operating environment, Finnish GDP is expected to turn to the growth, quite moderate growth, but growth anyway, expectations are 1.6%. Inflation, very moderate level that, of course, a positive thing for Finnish economy. There are certain uncertainties related to the market for global economy. If we then look the supply side in the market, there are estimates that roughly 20,000 start-ups here in Finland, whole country this year is quite low level given the fact that estimates are that 35,000 start-ups are required to cover the needs for new apartments in -- especially in growth centers. In our case, more relevant figure is actually the start-up of nonsubsidized apartments. Last year, around 2,000 apartments, that's historically low level compared to many, many previous years, not '23, but other previous years. So the volume has been above 20,000; so last year, only 2,000. There are estimates that the start-up -- nonsubsidized apartment start-ups this year is going to be 7,500. That's kind of official estimates that might be on the optimistic side. So very low level of start-ups even this year. And as we know that it takes, on average, 18 months to complete a new development project. That means that after the tail, earlier started project will come to the market first half of this year, there's going to be very limited amount of new supply coming into the year, later part of this year, 2026, and it's fair to say even 2027. Then if we look at the demand side, so the migration is already on the same level as it was before COVID-19 kicked in. So this so-called growth triangle is growing. So that part of the population growth is already in place. And on top of that, we have seen in Finland, according to Finnish standards, quite strong immigration. There are several estimates that immigration is going to be around 45,000 people this year and 40,000 next year. These are estimates given by the statistics of Finland. Then if we move, Page 10, so we look first total revenue. So total revenue growth was EUR 10.2 million last year. Completed apartments contributed EUR 14.2 million of the growth. And on the negative side was rents and impact of rents and occupancy. Net rental income, there, the growth was EUR 5.7 million. Maintenance expenses up by EUR 10.8 million. The biggest drivers there were heating and water grow -- the portfolio grew during last year and then property taxes. And the heating was up almost by EUR 4 million compared to previous year, mainly because of the last winter was very harsh in Finland. And repairs were down EUR 5.2 million last year. So profit before taxes and FFO, if we first look P&L side, so SG&A expenses down by EUR 6.2 million. And if we exclude one-off items, so the SG&A expenses were down by EUR 7 million. Finance expenses, EUR 32.5 million more than in the previous year. Of course, the underlying loan portfolio was bigger. But on top of that, of course, the higher interest rate environment plays a role there. On the FFO side, the finance expenses impact was negative EUR 32.9 million. It's good to keep in mind in corresponding periods, there was almost EUR 9 million profit regarding the repurchase of the bonds. But nevertheless, finance expenses were clearly higher compared to previous years. And current tax is slightly down EUR 3 million. Financial occupancy rate, as said, we were able to improve the occupancy during Q4 compared to Q3, 30 basis points, and the December was the strongest during the Q4. And this was despite of the fact that there's still oversupply in the market and normal seasonality, what we've seen in the market, but we were able to move into other direction. Tenant turnover remained on the same levels as in previous year. Like-for-like rental income, impact of rents and water charges positive side, 1%. We are still increasing the rents monthly basis, but the increases are moderate compared to the beginning of last year. And then this other impact is the impact of being more flexible. So in some cases, we've been even lowering the rents. And in some cases, we are offering incentives, so meaning rent-free periods in the beginning of tenancy, and the impact was negative 0.4%. Occupancy, on the negative side, 1.9%. As we said already during Q3 that our occupancy is not on a satisfactory level. And this is something that we are focusing on to improve the occupancy. And late last year, we were able to turn the trend and be moving into the right direction, not in a satisfactory level yet, but moving in the right direction. So combine this, so like-for-like rental income growth total was on negative territory. As part of our saving program, investment decreased significantly. So if you first look gross investments, it came down by EUR 137.9 million from the corresponding period. Last ongoing development was completed in June last year, and now we have one ongoing project, so based on previously signed agreement, now 119 apartments to be built here in Helsinki that will be completed in early 2026. Then if you look modernization investment side, so down by EUR 22.6 million from 2023. And repairs, as already said, down by EUR 5.2 million from the previous year. So all investments and savings, if you like, they're in line with the saving program. Page 15, the value of investment properties, the whole year figure, negative EUR 134 million. During the Q4, the value change was positive EUR 3.9 million. There's limited amount of transactions in the market, as we all know. So the valuation should reflect the actual transactions in the market. And now there hasn't been that many transactions. Actually, only one completed transaction during Q4. There, the pricing is pretty much in line what we saw earlier this year. So we kept the valuation parameters at the end of Q4 unchanged given the fact that there's no changes in the market. And of course, decrease in interest rates has reduced the pressure to increase the yield requirements. Loan to value, slightly down as anticipated. That was the plan to bring that loan to value slightly down. And we still have quite sizable buffer against this 50% level. So the target is to be below this 50%. And currently, we are at 43.9%, so quite strong buffer against that 50% level. Page 17, loans maturing in 2025, they are covered, as said. So at the end of last year, we had EUR 359 million cash or cash equivalent investments. We had EUR 375 million committed unused credit lines in place. And we signed in December last year new unsecured financing agreement with the new bank, EUR 150 million. That EUR 50 million, a part of that is term loan. It was undrawn at the end of last year. And on top of that, that EUR 150 million includes EUR 100 million credit line. So all 2025 maturing loans are covered. And the next arrangement we are looking is to refinance 2026 maturing loans. Our aim is to return to the bond market. We've been in a good position that we have had access for different sources of financing. But now it looks that the bond market is attractive. And our aim is to return to the bond market, not yet decided finally, but it might happen already during Q1, but Q2 this year at the latest. Our financial key figures, pretty much unchanged, hedging ratio quite high, 93%; average interest rate unchanged as well, 3%; and coverage ratio, 2.6. EPRA NRV, pretty much unchanged compared to the end of 2023. And then our outlook. So now we estimate that the top line growth this year is going to be between 1% and 4%, and the FFO will be between EUR 135 million, EUR 145 million. If we take the midpoint of the top line growth guidance, so that reflects that there's basically no impact for completions given the fact that we are not at the moment investing. So no ongoing developments that will be completed this year, no impact basically there. So midpoint of that guidance includes improving occupancy, moderate rent increases and the fact that we are still flexible what comes to the rent levels, given the fact that we are still focusing on improving the occupancy, and that's why we are flexible in the rents. And in that guidance -- midpoint of that guidance, we are not expecting any support from the improving market. And then the FFO guidance. So the midpoint of that, that's reflecting the impact of 2026 maturing loans to be refinanced this year and then pay back 2025 maturing loans as well. Average weather factor is quite important when it comes to the maintenance expenses, [ SG&A ] expenses and repairs in line with 2024 figures. And then, of course, the total revenue growth guidance is included in the FFO guidance range as well. And now happy to answer any questions there may be.

Okay. It seems that we don't have any questions coming from the phone line, but instead, we have some questions here in the chat. So if we start, you ended with the guidance. So what sort of occupancy improvement or rental growth is included in the total revenue guidance?

So if we consider what we are aiming to show, most likely quite moderate increases in the rents to support the occupancy improvement, basically no impact of completed projects. So most of the top line growth is coming through improving occupancy.

Then another topic. Can you comment next year, meaning this year's investment volumes or CapEx?

So if we first start the actual investments, so there, we have only one ongoing development, these 119 apartments. And there, the investment is going to be quite limited. We are going to increase the modernization investments, clearly higher than last year, but not on the level that it was 2023. Repairs, we expect to be broadly in line with what we saw last year. And then, of course, there's an inflation impact for maintenance expenses, but the weather factor is important. So the budget and the outlook is given based on so-called average weather for this year. It remains to be seen what the outcome really is. But so far, actually, the winter has been quite mild here in Finland, but it remains to be seen where we finally end with those figures.

Then there are questions on the occupancy. Are you able to comment anything about the year-end occupancy rate or how the occupancy rate developed during the last quarter?

So as said, December was the strongest month in -- during the Q4 and the monthly occupancy was 91.8%. And January and beginning of February this year, we have made a good amount of new lease agreements.

Is it possible to comment start of the year then?

Well, as said, so during the January and beginning of February, we have made a good amount of new lease agreements.

Okay. Then we can move on to another topic. And there has been discussions on open residential funds here in Finland closing there. So will their problems and troubles have any impact on our valuations going forward?

So these open resi funds has been active in muted, if you like, transaction market. And all those transactions already included in or taken into account in our valuation. Now they are closed. So most likely, they are not disposing at the moment anything. In that sense, we don't anticipate any impact in our valuation. And the valuation, as already said, should be reflecting observation from the market. And those transactions that are really comparable, they have to be comparable and made between parties, willing parties, buying and selling side. And these open resi funds, they are -- they haven't been distressed sellers, but they have been so-called highly motivated sellers. So you need to be a little bit cautious whether they are really comparable. But as said, all transactions completed are taken into account into our valuation. And as long as these resi funds are closed, so most likely, they are not disposing anything. One additional note is that it's quite unlikely that those resi funds that are closed will start any new developments. So that will have most likely impact for the market recovery.

Okay. Thank you. Then there is a question about saving program. Can you comment? There is a question, where are you standing now with the saving program?

When we released the saving program, we communicated that our aim is to have savings on the P&L side and then take down the volume for investments. And we have achieved those goals. So first, when we look at the P&L, we penciled in impact of inflation and then savings from -- especially from repairs and SG&A expenses, EUR 18 million, and we achieved that. So we were able to offset the impact of inflation and the savings on repairs and SG&A expenses in total, excluding one-off item, was EUR 12 million. So in that sense, we achieved nicely our target. And in total, actually, what we achieved on the investment side, taking down the volume of modernization investments and growth investments, we actually achieved more savings compared to the target we set. So we are very well in line with those targets, and they are achieved. We haven't started a new saving program this year. But as said earlier, so we expect that the repairs are broadly in line with last year's figures and SG&A expenses as well broadly in line with last year figures. So no new saving program as such, but the cost side is well in control, I would say.

Okay. Then about year-end valuation, what sort of discussions were there with the evaluator and especially on the occupancy assumption?

So there was actually quite limited discussions related to the occupancy and normal discussions in whole. But it's good to keep in mind that what happens in short term and what happens in the long term is slightly different, and the valuations are based on occupancy assumptions for 10 years, and no changes there. And we know that there are players in the market who apply actually in their calculation even higher occupancy assumptions that we do. And then on top of that, in short term, we have penciled in, in our calculation a factor that all vacant apartments will be vacant 12 months. That's quite tough assumption. So the short-term impact is taken into account in that way. But in the long term, it's 10-years assumption for occupancy and no reason to believe that we need to change that and -- didn't require any changes regarding this topic.

Okay. Then about rental market, what kind of change have you seen in incentives over the past few months?

So in the market, there's oversupply. And in the market, we still see incentives, typically rent-free period in the beginning of the lease agreement, 1 to 2 months, and then other all kind of additional benefits what we've seen. We've been quite tough what we, actually, what we offer. So we -- today, we do offer incentives, but typically, they are rent-free periods between 2 and 4 weeks in the beginning of rent agreements. But in the market, we have seen many of the different kind of incentives, but we haven't seen any changes there in the market.

Okay. And then there are some questions on financing. If we take the new refinancings for this year, can you comment what the margins might be for those?

So we have indications from the banks. And of course, we look at the secondary market on pricing in on our bonds. So in 5 to 7 years maturities, the spread indications are somewhere between 140, 160, 165 basis points.

Okay. And then I think this is the last question. So what is the -- what is your expectation when the supply-demand balancing will be visible or more visible?

So we are very cautious to give any date regarding this. And definitely, we are not giving any outlook. But if you play with the figures, so if we take the volume of start-up and that, of course, reflects the volume of completions to the market, and combine that data with the expectations for population growth in these growth centers so that if you just play with these figures, so we might be, during Q3 or Q4 this year, in balanced situation. And when I say balanced situation, I mean that available apartments import us on the same level as they were before COVID-19 kicked in. And then, of course, if this trend goes on, so we might end even a situation where there is shortage of apartments, not this year, but if these trends go on. The balancing in the market is not happening in every town, every city, every area at the same pace. So there's going to be differences between cities, but this is how the market at the moment looks like.

Okay. Thank you. That was actually the last question. Thank you all for sending those. And our next report is out on 8th of May. So I hope you can join us then as well. Now I wish you all a good rest of the week. Bye-bye.

Thank you. Bye.