Lyft, Inc. (LYFT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

All right. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our next fireside chat this time with Erin Brewer, the CFO of Lyft. Good to see you.

Good to see you. Thank you for having us.

Thanks for joining us. Let's do the disclosures first to get that out of the way. Please note that all important disclosures, including personal holdings disclosures and Morgan Stanley disclosures appear on the Morgan Stanley public website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. They are also available at the registration desk. Some of the statements made today by Lyft may be considered forward-looking. These statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Any forward-looking statements made today by the company are based on assumptions as of today, and Lyft undertakes no obligation to update them. Please refer to Lyft's Form 10-K for a discussion of the risk factors that may impact actual results. That's a good way to kind of get everything through. We're very compliant.

Okay. So there is a lot going on in the rideshare industry, Lyft specifically, the autonomous debate. So I'm really happy to have you here today. Maybe let's start with the strength in North America. I think one of the parts that has surprised a lot of investors throughout this year has been the way in which you've seen acceleration in the core business. The oldest business has accelerated over the course of the year pretty healthy. Can you sort of walk us through some of the drivers of that acceleration in North America throughout 2025?

Yes. So look, I'll start out by saying 2025 by all measures, I think, in the company's history has just been record breaking. And really, the foundation of that is, of course, our marketplace and the efficiencies that we drive there, that's enabled us to drive quarter after quarter of record growth in active riders, record growth in driver hours, record rides. So it's just been a strong year across the board. Then you've got the strength of our partnership portfolio and in particular, just about a year ago, we launched DoorDash. So it's in its real first cycle. That's been an extremely strong contributor overall and very excited about that. We still have a lot of runway ahead of us as well. So that's been fantastic. And then the financial health of the company overall is just set us up really nicely as we look forward. Very specifically, if we think about North America, let's just kind of start from a geo perspective. In the U.S., certainly, what we call our top markets, so the largest cities, those continue to grow. What's been a standout in 2025 is what we call the more underpenetrated markets. So these tend to be secondary or smaller cities, let's just say, still great cities, but smaller cities that have really generated extremely strong growth out of a focused effort and initiative that we've been at now for a while. And importantly, these geographies represent a huge portion of the available market. So that's encouraging not only for 2025, but as we think beyond. And then expanding further Canada, right? We continued in 2025 to launch new provinces, new cities in Canada. That's been a strong contributor. And then in the back half of the year, we also launched in Puerto Rico. So geographically, in the U.S., that's been strong. partnerships have been exceptionally strong. That's been important to the growth overall. So we've got a number of vectors there that have been driving our optimism and our performance in North America.

It's a good starting point. I mean I think one of the words is always so interesting to me about the rideshare industry is, despite the fact that it's been around for quite a while, over a decade, the actual penetration of miles is still so low. And even the percentage of Americans who use the products on a regular basis is still very low. As you sort of address your core markets and now these underpenetrated markets, what do you think are sort of the keys that you found to unlocking new user growth? Getting new people to use rideshare and use Lyft for the first time despite the fact that the industry has been around for quite a while.

Look, it all starts in a couple of fundamentals. It's providing a great service at a competitive price, right? You want a competitive price, you want the car to show up on time. You want accurate ETAs, you want to have a smooth experience. That by far and away, is the foundation. We always say sort of great rides. We get the next several rides. So the strength and the health of our overall marketplace has just been phenomenally improved over the last couple of years. And so we've built upon that foundation, right? You add on top of that, deepening and expanding our partnership portfolio. That is a very strong capability of the company that drives new rider acquisition, engagement with riders. It tends to drive preference, it tends to drive loyalty. Generally, riders who come to the platform through a partnership tend to take a higher mix of more profitable rides. And so that's a really important piece of expanding the portfolio. And then I think innovation has been really important. Whether it's product innovation that sort of gets maybe at a hurdle people might have had previously. Women plus Connect is a great example, just that comfort and confidence of a woman rider riding with a woman driver. Silver, which is a product -- a recent product that we're really proud of, which gets at the use case of older adults, finding freedom in transportation and getting around through ride share. So those are bringing new users and new cohorts overall to ride share. So it's really a number of different vectors as opposed to sort of a singular thing that I think have really allowed Lyft to make such significant progress.

You talked about, again, the underpenetrated markets. I think it's over 70% plus of the TAM to still go after in the U.S. is sort of the sparse markets, not that small. They're like million population cities, not that small. How do you -- what have you learned about effective ways to sort of not attack, but better address those markets? How does it start? Does it start with supply? Do you start with marketing? Like what is sort of the go-to-market that you've learned that's more effective to better penetrating these newer markets?

Yes. So to some extent, it's been the journey of our company over the last couple of years, coming out of the pandemic leadership change, stabilizing the business, you sort of start with that with your classic, maybe top markets and getting the foundations and the fundamentals right. And then taking that focus beyond the top markets into some of these less densely populated, if you will, markets overall. And so absolutely, it starts with coming in, understanding the market, understanding what's going to resonate in that market. So on the ground, research with drivers, with riders, building the supply base and taking everything, all the foundational capabilities, the efficiency with which we can deliver rides and deliver a great experience and really focus. I mean those are some of the -- it's getting those basics right and doing it in a way that's meaningful within that market and then doing that repeatedly and doing it more broadly at scale.

The other area where you've called out strength in the past has been the universities and the college towns in the U.S. I agree with your call out. When I go back to Ann Arbor, I always use Lyft. The wait times are lower, the pricing is lower. It's not even close. So what have you learned about the universities like sort of you really do seem to have a differentiator in the universities versus your competitors? So what's happened there?

It's sort of back-to-school time is one of those critical times in a year where transportation habits just fundamentally changed, right? People are going back to school, it tends to be the end of summer, commute patterns change. It's capturing those times when you understand that people are in motion with the way they're going to get where they need to be, they tend to be moving around different geographies. And so having that focus, having that presence, it's building the supply in advance of that. It's having the right marketing message at the right time. It's having the right offerings to those student populations. And we found that to be really compelling. And then, of course, as you're delivering those great experiences, hopefully, you're building broader lifetime value, obviously, with both the drivers and the riders. And so capturing those moments when people are making changes naturally in their lives is a really compelling entry point. We found a lot of success there.

I want to ask one more about the user acquisition strategy and specifically with the partnerships. I feel like on Wall Street, there's a lot of misunderstanding for how the partnerships are structured financially as a user acquisition. Are they loss leaders upfront? Are the partnership members always lower margin? Like sort of just how do we think about the investment structure and the contract structure of those partnerships as you bring on those users?

It's a great question. So as I mentioned previously, Lyft has been -- has had strong partnerships for many, many years. This is something that we're really proud of, the way that we partner. And the way that we approach that is truly a win-win, right? Both companies are typically in it to engage with consumers, in our case, riders in a more meaningful way, in a way that's going to drive loyalty, in a way that's going to drive new users to the platform. That's going to look slightly different between, for example, a DoorDash partnership and United. So you really want to tailor that message. You really want to understand the audiences that you're going after, and you really want to understand those methods by which both partners are winning. Those are the foundations for long-term success in any given partnership. So that's where we focus very intently. I think it's why we tend to have partnerships that grow over time are quite successful. The funding mechanisms, therefore, can vary because it depends on what you're trying to achieve. But what I would say is generally true, is that there is typically an element of co-funding in those partnerships and then they do tend to ramp over time. And it's not a matter of the initial offering is the forever offering. You typically have different strategies that you're executing throughout the life cycle. So early, for example, in the phase of a partnership you're naturally going to bring in folks who are already fans of both participants in partnership. That's a very quick adoption cycle. And then you execute strategies for the other audiences that you're going to get. And some of that -- some of those marketing and offering will evolve over time. They need to be refreshed. And so you've got this very deep engagement on both sides. Those are some of the ways that we approach it and how they build over time.

Got it. The gig economy has brought a lot of exciting new learning opportunities for all of us on Wall Street and Sell-side analysts trying to understand the industry, including the insurance industry. some pretty meaningful changes coming in insurance in 2026, specifically in California. Maybe just walk us through the changes that we should sort of be aware of? And how do we think about the financial impact of that?

Absolutely. Just very briefly because we've got a broad audience here. I might just set the foundation that in the U.S. market, rideshare companies are required, and these laws are jurisdictional by state to carry insurance on behalf of the drivers. Those insurance limits tend to be at levels far higher than, for example, I'm required to do as a personal auto policyholder, for example. And that started at the beginning of the industry because there wasn't a framework overall. It's stuck with the industry over time and has created a number of problematic scenarios because you're carrying much higher limits when the average, when an accident does happen. So those limits can be as high as $1 million or higher. When an accident does happen, those typically resolve in the vast majority of cases for less than $100,000. So it's an area that is ripe for reform. It's an essential part of our overall strategy with the way that we manage our insurance portfolio and our programs. And recently, in California through a collaboration at the state level with the leaders in the state, with labor and with the rideshare industry, there's been reform paths that substantially lowers those limits and therefore, will lower the cost of insurance on a per ride basis, which in the state of California and a couple of other states is particularly high. And what that really presents is an opportunity. This is truly a classic win-win-win scenario. So first and foremost, riders win, right? This is going to deliver the ability to offer lower pricing in the market because we are substantially reducing one of the primary costs of delivering a ride. When you do that, you expand the market, you grow rides. And that happens, drivers get more rides. There's higher utilization. They make more money. That's fantastic. All of those things mean that Lyft wins as well. And so that starts on January 1. Obviously, we'll be observing very carefully how that rolls out. We certainly hope it can serve as a model for other states where similar challenges exist.

Yes. It should be great for growth, the ability to get pricing down and drive more growth on the elasticity curves and also give you more cushion to invest in growth and deliver healthy EBITDA and free cash flow. Are there any other states that are sort of on your watch list for '26 or '27 potential further reform, kind of like looking at California as an example?

Yes, there are a number. I won't front run some of those discussions, but there are a number of other states that have very high policy limitations that we think that there are opportunities to make a difference. And again, I think watching the example of California will hopefully inspire some of that to happen faster.

And just as a reminder, I know we all have our estimates. What have you guys done in size in California as a percentage of the total business?

We haven't. It's an important market, but we haven't given a particular size.

We think low teens, but we'll see. But it is meaningful. So okay. If we're wrong, let me know. I mean, I'd love to know. All right. So let's talk about autonomous driving. We made it 20 minutes and here we are on the AV topic. So you have a partnership with Waymo in Nashville. Maybe, again, just for this audience, remind us sort of the structure of the partnership, how is it going to sort of work from an app perspective, from a management perspective, what does the Waymo partnership look like?

Yes, absolutely excited to launch this in 2026. The teams are hard at work on the core of the execution. So we'll certainly be ready to go. But what we announced with Waymo, very excited to work with them and we think in a way that's pretty unique overall. So the structure of the way that will launch in Nashville is we will be providing sort of the fleet operations piece of the of the overall construct, we'll construct a purpose-built vehicle depot. We'll invest about $10 million to $15 million and getting that done. And that will -- the purpose of that is to control all of the hands on the knob, if you will, of making sure that the cars have very high availability, having high availability, combined with high utilization is essential in this overall model and important, obviously, to both partners. So we'll earn economics based on availability overall of the fleet. And then you'll be able to hail, if you will, the Waymo car on both apps. And so that's getting at the utilization piece and then there'll be obviously economics that we earn to the extent that ride is delivered on the Lyft platform.

I believe it's because we have a new AV model out city by city. Nashville is fully in the model with Lyft. I believe it's the only -- the only one -- the only partner that has 2 apps, correct? For now? Same city?

I think that's probably.

I believe as of right now, that is the only one. So maybe walk us through, I think, externally, when we look at these AV adoption curves and what has to change to go from 20 basis points of AV miles to 10% of miles the next 15 years. Sometimes I feel like externally, we underappreciate some of the complexities. As you have been getting smarter, working with Waymo, learning more about the industry from your perspective, what do you think are some of the more challenging hurdles that the AV industry has to overcome sort of hit any of these numbers we all put in Excel sheets?

So stepping that back very, very broadly, I think first and foremost is around safety right, and adoption by the rider. You need that to be in a very healthy place. Obviously, Waymo has done a good job of that as other entrants come into the market that needs to be foundational and a primary focus. So I absolutely want to start with that because it's critical as the industry develops overall. The second thing that I would point to is that AVs certainly expand the market. We see that today, right? So it's another reason why we are so excited about that. That was always a premise, but we see it actually in the data today in the cities that have a reasonable sized fleet within the U.S. So that's super exciting. In terms of the various hurdles, I'd point to as well, we also see this ultimately the successful model is a hybrid platform, right? The key here is about having high vehicle availability and then very high utilization. And we believe absolutely that the optimal model of that is a hybrid network over time. And so that's very much where we're focused. To your point, there's a lot of devil in the details behind that, certainly, the complexity of the technology, the ability to deliver safe rides prove that out, ensure that the riders have comfort whenever they step into a vehicle. But it's also a very physical, real-world asset. And I do think -- I think it's becoming more appreciated as some of these cities are rolling out at more scale. You need to understand that you have to have a place where the vehicles can home, where they can come, be cleaned, they can be charged, they can have maintenance on them. It might sound like the less sexy piece, but that's incredibly, incredibly important to high availability. And that's where Lyft is pretty uniquely positioned. We own tens of thousands of cars today, we have for years. We run physical centers in dozens of top markets across the U.S. through our Flexdrive subsidiary. So we have proprietary software that optimizes this for rideshare. That's quite unique. When partners come and speak to us, we don't have to refer to a third party or say we'll get back to you. We've got this expertise in-house. So it really accelerates the conversation and we think accelerates will ultimately be a differentiator in accelerating time to scale and vehicles on the road.

Got it. I think you mentioned it before about the faster growth in some of the markets that have more scaled fleets. I think the discussion about AV driving incrementality to the rideshare industry really important as we go throughout '26, '27, just to make sure we're expanding the TAM. So maybe just first, remind us what you've said about the growth rates of Lyft in those markets with more AV development? And why do you think they're growing faster? What is your best logic of why you think that's happening?

Yes. So we've tried to highlight some of the cities where again, there's a little bit more of scale. Again, it's still relative to rideshare, frankly, a much smaller scale, but also cities where these cars have been on the ground for a period of time. So we'll tend to talk about places like San Francisco, Phoenix and L.A., because they really fit that overall profile and criteria. But we talked about those markets growing at a much higher rate than comparable top markets that do not have scaled AV deployment. So why is that? AVs are really opening a new lens in terms of bringing riders into the marketplace. In some cases, it can start with a curiosity or it can start with this really fits a need today or a barrier of block that traditional rideshare has been presented. I want to commute in rideshare to work. But every Monday, I've got my one-on-one with my boss. I don't want to do that in a car potentially with a driver. I can do that more easily in an AV. I'm a woman who's out at a party late at night for whatever reason, I'm going to journey back to my home on my own. I might feel more comfortable with that in an AV. And we see also in these cities, riders who might be trying rideshare for the first time through AVs. We then see them continuing on with classic, if you will, or human-driven rideshare as well. And so coming, having a good experience, finding that this is really a great fit in their overall journey and transportation needs. And so it's that cycle. But most importantly, again, still relatively small scale, but we're seeing it actually on the ground. So that -- it's a data point that just further bolsters our conviction.

Yes. Just it speaks again to the long runway for rideshare as aviation runway. You completed the acquisition of FREENOW. Maybe now that you've had it sort of under the -- you've got under the hood, not pun and intentional, FREENOW, what has sort of surprised you most about the business now you've kind of digging around a little bit?

Yes. This is going to sound trite, but not much, right? We did pretty extensive diligence coming in. I would say pleasantly as I think about -- in any acquisition, you tend to have a smaller group that's doing the diligence and doing the deal. I would say, as our broader teams have become engaged, what's been a pleasant surprise is just how incredible the cultural fit is, right? We approach things the same way. We think about the industry the same way we think about our riders and optimizing the same way. That's been -- I think the teams have been very happy to see that. The early phases of the value creation here, FREENOW is incredible at bringing on fleets onto their platform. What Lyft is bringing, especially in the early phases, is sort of technology behind how do you dispatch better, how do you utilize better, there's such a huge opportunity to bring the off-line taxi market online. And so that's going to be the initial place that we're starting along our path. But as we go, also AVs present an opportunity. We are announced our intention to launch with Baidu in a couple of markets in Europe. We talked already about partnerships. All of those partners, United, Hilton, et cetera. Our partnerships are with global companies. We've had a lot of success in North America. That's an opportunity as we look further down the road with FREENOW, our ads business. All of those, again, global brands who are looking at this as an opportunity. So we're just getting started. It's early days, but I think the teams are incredibly encouraged about how much alignment there is. essential anytime you endeavor in M&A.

If you look at the Analyst Day 1.5 years ago, so we talked a lot about the ad business. It doesn't seem to be as a bigger part of the discussion anymore, maybe it's because of AV and everything else going on. But maybe just remind us, where are you now on the ad business? And how do you think about the next key execution points to really drive that to a much larger part of profitability?

Yes. So our goal, as we set out on this overall journey was to exit 2025 at about $100 million run rate. We are right on target for that. And so the team has just done a tremendous job in delivering that value. And really, the next layer of growth there is certainly expanding. The majority of that has come through compelling offers on -- in terms of in-app advertising in ways we've continued to innovate there. The next journey of this is really making that experiential piece very relevant to brands, right? There's a lot of physical world engagement that we deliver to riders by nature of the business. We're taking them from one place. We understand their intent and where they're going. And so how do you really enrich that from an experiential lens and that's going to unlock the next phase of growth.

Great. Well, we're very excited to see everything happens in 2026, Erin. Thank you very much for your time.

Thank you so much.