Lynch Group Holdings Limited (LGL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the Lynch Group Holdings First Half FY '25 Investor Presentation. With me today is Hugh Toll, CEO; and Steve Wood, CFO. And just to let you know, we'll go through a formal part of the presentation. And at the end, we'll open it up for question-and-answer. So please just lodge your questions, as we go or at the end, and we'll take each of those in turn. So without further ado, let me hand over to Hugh to get things underway.

Thanks, Adrian. Good morning to everyone on the call, and thank you for your time. As Adrian mentioned, my name is Hugh Toll. I'm the Chief Executive of Lynch Group. I'm joined by Steve Wood, who is our CFO, and Steve will take us through the financials as part of the presentation. I'll move straight to the results presentation deck, which is on screen released to the ASX this morning and start with the financial year '25 group highlights section. The group's first half results finished in line with guidance provided to the market in November at both revenue and EBITDA lines. The results reflect sustained improvement in margins in our Australian operations and a continuation of weakness in realized pricing in our China operations. First half group revenue grew 5% year-on-year with pleasing headline growth in both Australia and China. Australia delivered consistent growth across the half with stable demand from our major supermarket channel customers. China revenue increased on the first half of FY '24 from higher production volumes of both roses and tulips, increased export volumes, offset by declines in domestic rose pricing. First half group EBITDA at $16.5 million finished marginally below last year. Australia delivered a 7% improvement in EBITDA, combining ongoing margin improvement initiatives and steady top line growth, whilst China EBITDA declined as a result of higher volume throughput on lower realized ASP across our sales channels, as consumer confidence and spending remained weak for discretionary purchasing. We're pleased to issue the group's second annual sustainability report during the first half. The group highlights the significant and ongoing progress across our 6 established sustainability pillar work groups in waste, carbon emissions, water, packaging, biodiversity and people and community. Turning now to the Australian highlights on Slide 6. Australia's first half revenue finished 4% up year-on-year. Customer demand for supermarket floral products remained resilient across the half despite ongoing cost of living pressures impacting consumer confidence and household spending. Floral category growth remained strong, whilst potted category demand continued to reset from the COVID peak. Sale or return store revenue growth also continued to outperform core store growth across the half. EBITDA growth outperformed top line growth across the half as ongoing cost management and efficiency initiatives delivered improved margin. Our key first half Christmas event was again well executed. Industrial action impacting one of our major customers across December resulted in DC closures and created major supply challenges for our Victorian operations. Close and collaborative efforts between our teams meant the impact of these disruptions were largely earnings neutral. We added 2 new automated bouquet making lines into our New South Wales operations during the second quarter, which have demonstrated immediate improvements to labor productivity and product consistency. This is an important step in both driving efficiencies and increasing output capacity across our sites into the future, particularly for our peak event windows across February and May. Moving to Slide 7 for China. First half China segment revenue finished up 20% year-on-year. The increase resulted from a combination of strong farm production growth, which tracked at around 15% across our farms, which included 50% growth in Southern Hemisphere tulip volumes. Broadly neutral domestic average selling price given modest declines in local rose pricing and the mix benefit of increased volumes of high-priced tulips and higher export revenues from increased volumes into Australia, which includes the pass-through of freight costs. China's first half EBITDA decline of $1 million correlates directly to declines in domestic rose ASP across the half and higher labor costs associated with higher volume throughput. Production costs and overheads have been tightly managed across what has been a difficult trading environment for our China operations. Across the half, consumer demand remains subdued, and government stimulatory policies aimed at lending and the property sector failed to deliver any meaningful shift in consumer confidence. We continue to take a measured approach to greenhouse expansion given current market conditions with the first half addition of 1 hectare to support our expanding amaryllis production program. Strengthening our downstream distribution capabilities and broadening our customer channel reach continues to progress with our recently opened Guangzhou facility delivering greater access and increasing volumes into this significant market in China Southeast. I'll now hand over to Steve, who will take us through the half year financials.

Good morning, everybody. Our first half FY '25 results reflect revenue growth and improving EBITDA margins in Australia and the ongoing effects of weaker pricing in China, but with increases in export and tulips delivering revenue growth overall. Group revenue of $196.5 million was up 5.3% on the same period in the prior year, with EBITDA of $16.5 million at the midpoint of the guidance range provided in November of $16 million to $17 million, Group EBITDA margin for the half was 8.4% with improved margin in Australia, where the result was up 20 basis points on the same period last year and lower margins in China as consumer confidence and demand remain constrained. Cash conversion for the half is 46%, as a result of seasonal inventory build and the timing of customer receipts. Substantial unwind of working capital as per normal trends is expected in the second half as inventory is sold through. The group today declared an interim fully franked dividend of $0.05 per share with a record date of the 5th of March and an expected payment date of the 19th of March, and this is up $0.01 on the interim dividend declared last year. Moving to the Australia segment, which has delivered revenue and EBITDA growth during the year. Revenue is $163.7 million, which is a 3.9% increase on the same 26-week period in FY '24. This is slightly higher than the 3-year CAGR growth of 3.2%. Growth for the half has been driven by the floral category, which is up 8.3%, demonstrating the continuing increase in penetration of the supermarket channel, as part of the overall floral market. The [ potty ] category declined 15.8%, as consumer demand continued its reset from the peaks of the pandemic impacted years in 2021 and 2022. Sale or return stores, whilst remaining stable in terms of store numbers, continue to grow weekly revenue at a faster pace than core stores and were a substantial contributor to the floral growth during the half. EBITDA of $14.6 million is 7.2% up on the first half in 2024, meaning that earnings growth outperformed revenue for the half, leading to an improvement in EBITDA margin of 20 basis points. A number of initiatives across product range and profit improvement projects, most notably domestic freight have contributed to this result. International freight rates, which were materially elevated during calendar year 2023, in particular, have largely normalized, although China rates remain much higher than those historically achieved and labor availability, which we've called out previously, has returned to normal. The S/4HANA upgrade remains on track for commissioning by the end of the current financial year with $1.5 million of costs associated with the project recognized as underlying adjustments for the half. Moving to the China segment, where revenue is $43.6 million, up 19.7% on the same period last year. Revenue growth has been achieved largely through volume growth in roses and tulips. Tulip volumes are up 50% with ASP achieved similar to the prior year. Rose production also increased, but modest declines in domestic pricing has led to a neutral year-on-year revenue result for domestic roses. Additional volumes, however, were exported to Australia, as weaker domestic pricing for roses persisted, noting that an international freight component is also included in export revenue. All export revenue into the Australia business is eliminated at the group level. EBITDA for the half is $1.9 million, down $1.1 million on the same period in the previous year, a result of the ongoing weakness in ASP for roses. The cost of operating the China business have remained well controlled with key production costs, including heating, fertilizers, packaging, freight and labor, all in line with our expectations. The half year P&L shows an increase in operating margin to $40.2 million, but at a lower rate of 20.5% from the reduced contribution in China. Operating expenses are up 3.1% on last year, with employee costs, warehousing and insurance costs, the highest increases during the period. Depreciation and amortization increased by 7.4% from depreciation on property, plant and equipment in both countries. Depreciation from right-of-use assets and amortization are both consistent year-on-year. Financing costs reflect higher interest charges on lease liabilities with interest on external borrowings in line with the same period last year, which leads to net profit after tax adjusting for noncash amortization or NPATA of $1.1 million compared to $2.2 million for the first half of FY '24, which is largely the effect of the increased depreciation and lease interest. Moving to cash flow. Cash conversion for the first half is 46% compared to 66% for the same period last year. First half working capital is always seasonally affected from inventory build with high volumes of tulips on hand in China, combined with inventory to support second half events in Australia. These both substantially unwind in the second half as tulips sell-through and event inventory is utilized. For the current period, in addition, cash conversion was affected by the timing of customer receipts at the end of the half, which were settled on time but after our reporting date of the 29th of December. Leases, interest tax and maintenance CapEx are $1.4 million lower than the previous year from lower maintenance CapEx and income tax payments. And growth CapEx, which I'll touch on shortly, is also $3 million lower than the same period in FY '24. The dividends of $9.8 million reflect $0.08 final dividend paid in relation to last year. Borrowings reflects a short-term repayment of a proportion of China debt, which has subsequently been redrawn in January, and the underlying adjustments reflect the tax adjusted costs in relation to the SAP project. And a reconciliation of those is provided in the supplementary materials at the end of the presentation pack. So CapEx of $4 million includes growth of $2.5 million and maintenance of $1.4 million. The reduced CapEx compared to historical periods reflects the ongoing cautious approach to greenhouse expansion in China during the current economic conditions. Growth CapEx of $2.5 million includes investment in automated bouquet making lines in Australia with 2 lines added during the period and a deposit made on a third, which is expected to be operational during the second half. In China, an efficiency-based heating upgrade was added at one farm with further tulip infrastructure to support the previous year expansion also put in place. One hectare of productive land to support amaryllis production was added during the period, bringing the total area under production to 85 hectares. Maintenance CapEx of $1.4 million is business as usual in nature and includes planned crop replacement, workplace health and safety and IT equipment. And finally, to the group balance sheet. Total assets are up $3.9 million or around 1% compared to the last reporting period in June. Cash is down 47% as a result of seasonal working capital and the dividend paid in September. Debtors are higher from seasonal impacts, Christmas events in Australia and early balance date. Inventories likewise are higher from the tulips and event inventory, as we previously noted. China PPE and intangibles have both benefited from the movement in RMB with half year translation increasing these balances at reporting date. Creditors were also seasonally affected with a balance of $51.6 million higher than in June, but similar to the same time last year. Net debt of $80.5 million is higher than the $67.4 million reported in June, but again, similar to the $78.4 million reported this time last year. Borrowings are $55 million with $22 million undrawn facilities remaining available to the group and banking covenants for the period were achieved with satisfactory headroom. We've provided revenue, EBITDA and key operating metrics split between geographies, as well as reported to stat reconciliations and underlying adjustments in the materials at the back of the investor presentation pack.

Thanks, Steve. And now turning to Slide 17, which goes to current regional trade settings. In Australia, current floral demand remained stable through our major supermarket customers with Australian revenue growth up 7% for the first 7 weeks of the second half. The Valentine's Day event was well executed at an operational level, and the event delivered very strong year-on-year revenue growth for our customers and sellout results in store. The event result is a strong indicator of ongoing supermarket demand for floral products despite a softer environment for consumer spending and forward orders for the Mother's Day event in May also indicate confidence in the floral category. New brands launched with both major and independent customers also continued to deliver strong volume growth and sales momentum into the second half. Our U.S. dollar currency exposure is largely hedged across the second half major event window. A lower Australian dollar over the longer term will determine requirements for range adjustments to protect margins from the commencement of next financial year. Positive efficiency outcomes from the recently installed bouquet making lines into Sydney will mean further investment in lines we made over the coming half and longer term. And in China, market pricing dynamics for floral lines have improved substantially over recent weeks. Increased export activity across the market is also acting to tighten local supply during the important second half event window. Revenue in China over the first 7 weeks of the half is currently up 15%, primarily ASP driven on relatively flat year-on-year volumes. Market pricing from Chinese New Year into Valentine's Day has been favorable, and we expect this trend to continue into International Women's Day in early March. Operational efficiency and cost control remains a key focus. Our primary objective being to maintain leading unit cost efficiency across production, packing and logistics. Costs continue to be well controlled, as our operations and customer channels currently handle our peak tulip trading volumes. With the medium-term outlook for the Chinese economy remaining uncertain, we continue to carefully manage and control our CapEx and expansion programs. Our China operations remain positively leveraged to a recovery in consumer confidence and floral demand over time. Moving finally to Slide 18 for the group's overall outlook. Group FY '25 revenue growth is expected to remain positive at around 6% with key second half event activity driving a stronger second half revenue performance. We also expect the group to achieve an overall EBITDA margin broadly in line with the prior year FY '24 result. We'll provide further guidance after this year's Mother's Day event in May. So that wraps up the official presentation materials. Adrian will now moderate questions. Happy to take any of those and go from there.

Yes. Thanks, Hugh. [Operator Instructions] So we've got a number that have come through, as you were speaking, Hugh. So why don't we start from the top. First question, how significant is the saving from auto bouquet lines? And given the peak in the second half, February, May, what is the net impact? Or does it wash with underlying cost increases?

Look, early days, like we installed the 2 new lines into Sydney in October. One of the lines is more determined to increase production of sort of higher-priced lines, which will go through our sale or return network to drive sales growth. The other line is more about production efficiency and speed. That is the line that we will be replicating into other sites. So in terms of what it offers us, it's both, I think, a labor higher reduction in head count based on the number of individuals we need for set production output. So there are labor savings. And 2, the second part of it is around, I'll call it, sort of labor risk in terms of having skilled bouquet makers on site in terms of production peaks for us, it takes time to train and bring those people on board for peak events. So by having automated production lines, which have consistent production in terms of volumes per hour, product consistency in terms of visual appeal, et cetera, in those terms, we derisk the business from future potential issues around trying to find skilled bouquet makers. So this is about labor savings, product consistency and also having a known quantity of labor to be able to push volumes out during key event windows. So we're pleased with the returns. They meet the thresholds that we need to push CapEx out the door to continue this automation program. So I won't go to numbers, but we're happy with where they're going to come out at.

Thanks, Hugh. It sounds like a good priority for capital expenditure. Next question. So what is the ability to take price in 2025 given the FX headwinds? And I think the question is, have you taken any in Australia?

Look, we're well hedged for the second half, as we've already noted. So in terms of you'll note from many discussions we've had over the years around protecting margin through range. For the bulk of the lines that we provide to supermarket customers, we have the ability to change recipes to protect margin. So with the agreement of our customers, we can substitute lines, substitute geographies of where we're sourcing product, and we can change recipes or even -- entire product ranges to maintain consistent margin for us and for our customer, whilst maintaining value for consumers in stores. So I think what we need to call out today is that the movement downwards will impact our business. But like in previous financial years, we're usually able to protect our margins through the work we can do in range. So we're well protected through the end of this financial year. And before we enter into the new financial year, we'll have worked on range and solutions to protect our margins.

Thanks, Hugh. Next question. How is the markets business performing? And are there any M&A opportunities?

Look, markets business is better in that I think the reset down that we saw across back end of '22 and '23 has stabilized. We're in growth. I think it remains a competitive marketplace given that I think a lot of the sort of end market demand for high-priced lines is still subdued given the consumer environment that we're in. So look, at the moment, I think more of our expansion focus in that business will be greenfield, but there is opportunity in and around M&A, small, but interesting sites around Australia that will come to our attention.

Thanks, Hugh. Next question, turning to China, just the outlook for pricing. And how is demand by channel online versus the chains and versus the markets? Okay.

Look, in terms of how we're looking at pricing at the moment, I think the shift into second half has been quite distinct. It was still a reasonably subdued market across Q2. We saw a real shift in demand from the front end of this calendar year. I think there are 2 parts to it. There's the demand side, which is usually indicated to us via sort of customer florist wholesale feedback, which is are they willing to accept price increase? What is their feedback from key events and how quickly do they restock after key events? So if you can imagine, this quarter has both Chinese New Year and Valentine's Day reasonably close off each back. We then move into International Women's Day. So I think for us, this is an important quarter. We have seen better pricing. Part of it, I think, is due to some shift in demand. But I'd say the larger proportion of better pricing at the moment is changes that we've seen on the supply side. So there's certainly, given depressed pricing in China, a lot more activity on trading, exporting, et cetera, out of China into Southeast Asia and into Europe. So I think that takes out a certain chunk of product out of the market. It has been cooler, which has meant that there's been less product available on market. So I think the supply side dynamic has been sort of positive for pricing. Demand, it's early days, but I think we've seen some, some signals that it's improving.

Thanks, Hugh. Next question. Are there any plans for any more farms in China?

I think we highlighted in the last sort of update to the market that we have located a [ fifth ] farm. I think for us to sign a lease and to commit to a CapEx program over the next 3 to 5 years on a large farm site wouldn't be best practice for us. So I think we are ready and willing at the right time. But in the current environment with the volumes that we have coming off our existing farm base and the market settings that we face in terms of supply and demand factors, we're going to be cautious for the near term.

Thanks, Hugh. A quick question for you, Steve. Just -- I know you spoke about it in your presentation, but just with respect to the cash flow, just can you just explain exactly what happened at that period end, please?

Yes, no problem. So cash is always lighter in the first half because of the inventory build and the seasonality nature of that. So that happens every year. In addition, this year, we run on a 52-week calendar as opposed to a 12-month calendar. And our balance date was 29th of December rather than 31st, as it was last year. And so, that was the cutoff period. And we received some substantial payments from customers between the 29th and the 31st. So within the terms of arrangements that we have with them within the calendar month, but not within the balance date. So that increased debtors and reduced cash for the period, and that led to a proportion of the working capital decline year-on-year. So that was most of it. But as we move forward into the second half, I would expect to see a substantial unwind, as we have done in the previous 3 or 4 years.

Thanks, Steve. Next question probably for you, Hugh. Any view on sustainable margins in China, what they could be? And are roses a higher margin than tulips?

Look, they are different products in terms of COGS construct. A quick lesson on that front. I think for a rose plant will be in our greenhouse anywhere from, I don't know, 7 to 10 years, and it's producing product year in, year out. So for us, the sort of COGS line for rose production primarily relates to production labor in the greenhouse, chemicals, fertilizers, energy and then packing. So if you then turn your mind to tulips, tulips, we have to buy bulbs and we run that product through our business from a chilling process into the greenhouse for ultimate sale. So the COGS impact of having an input like a bulb means that the gross margin percentage on a tulip for sale will be lower than a rose. So that's just a quick lesson on that front. In terms of margin recovery or otherwise, I think we've clearly demonstrated volume increases year-to-year, both through the physical greenhouse footprint expansion and then through yield enhancements as that production footprint has matured. So clearly, if you look back to sort of the earnings levels of FY '21, FY '22, that was on a smaller growing base, but reflective of the margins that we'd expect from the capital that we have deployed to generate the sales that those greenhouses were able to achieve. [ Your then ] question is what does pricing recovery do for margin? So a pricing recovery really has a 100% translation to EBITDA. So to the extent that we are -- we have depressed rose pricing at the moment, forming a view on how large the recovery will be will tell you more of a picture of how high our EBITDA margin can move. But we are a much larger footprint and volume throughput business than we were at our last peak earnings level for our China business. We still expect to earn attractive returns on invested capital for the investments that we have made in our greenhouses, and we do expect to see margins push higher, as prices improve.

Thanks, Hugh. Next question. Have you seen much of a shift in supermarket share or the floral market over the last 6 months? And do you expect a continuation of market share gains in your key market segment?

Yes. So look, I think -- in terms of customer count and volume throughput for our supermarket business, it was reasonably stable across '23 and '24. But we have through the addition of new customers and also through high throughput with our key customers, our share or channel share of supermarkets has increased. I think we're probably running close to 30% of our volume throughput of the farms is heading out through the supermarket channel at the moment. Look, they are a stable baseline demand for our product. We do have pricing that is on terms of anywhere from sort of 1 month to 3 months. So there's more pricing stability through that network as well. I think we would be the leading provider of volume throughput to the major supermarket customers in China. And I expect that through customer count and through share of their spend, that will continue to be a big part of our channel strategy.

Thanks, Hugh. Next question to China. Can you dig into a bit more detail in terms of pricing in China, which sounds like it started well in the calendar year '25. And how much of the strength is demand driven on consumer sentiment versus competitor supply? And what are you seeing on competitive dynamics?

Okay. Look, we've certainly seen better conditions, and I talked from bitter experience. December was pretty tough for us. So we didn't see the usual lift in pricing for our rose products from November into December when we expect that there is less product available on market and certainly more demand, as we head towards Christmas. We saw a distinct sort of shift from December onwards from sort of January, we saw good increases for our rose products. We've seen good demand and pricing for tulips across the full season. But I'd say if I was trying to break it out into what is delivering sort of better outcomes over the last 6 or 7 weeks, I think more of it is around the supply side. It's very hard to call a recovery in consumer demand in that market, where we're 2 years into some pretty challenging conditions for the economy up there and for consumer attitudes on how they want to spend their money. As I highlighted maybe 10 minutes ago, I think the telltales for us are typically around customer reaction to price variance. So if we see prices go up and customers are still buying wholesalers or florists or our supermarket customers, and that's a positive. Two is how they react or the feedback we get from their sort of key events, and we just headed through our second event of the last 6 or 7 weeks. And the feedback is not universally superb, but it's not bad. I think they've indicated that they've had good sell-through, and they've restocked. So that tells me that the retail interface through the consumer is in better shape. But I'm certainly not going to sit here and call the turnaround in sort of consumer appetite at the moment up there. So if I was to typify what is pushing pricing at the moment, it is winter. There is less product available on market. There is more of that product being exported to Europe and other parts of Asia. There is certainly no more capacity coming to market in the current environment. So if I was to sort of put the dial on it, I'd say more of it is supply side than demand at the moment. But there are some telltales that demand is improving.

Good to hear. Hugh, next question, just with respect to air freight. And I think the question is more about what was the impact in the first half? And is it a further headwind into the second half of this financial year?

Look, we haven't seen too many shifts. We've -- there has been some congestion out of Africa. So Nairobi is obviously an important port for us and moving product out of there typically involves the Middle East. So there has been some congestion and also some pricing impact for our product heading out of that market. Most of that product is tied to box space agreements, which typically run for 6 months. So it's only spot purchasing out of there that has been impacted, not in a major way. So I think in terms of landed cost of product for us, that would be the key market that we've seen some changes in, but it hasn't had an impact to our bottom line. Part 2 is China remains expensive, and we really haven't seen any shift in freight rates out of that market for almost 2 years now. We're at the front end of doing a lot of sea freight trials out of China. We ran sort of a 12-week program into Christmas, a lot learned out of that, and that is about moving roses out of China into our Australian business that will come with substantial savings. So that's to combat a lot of the freight issues around no real reductions in China rates for 2 years. So there's a lot going on in this space. We're constantly trying to innovate and save money on this front, but it's reasonably stable.

Thanks, Hugh. Just a couple of final questions, both of them on China. Can you provide an update on the Shanghai and Guangzhou facility? Has it started to produce value-added products like bouquets yet? And what are the utilization of these facilities currently?

Yes. So both these facilities are making bouquets, but I'm going to call it out as sort of modest levels. So 10,000, 15,000 bouquets a week, which is quite small compared to what we obviously do in the Australian business. So in terms of supermarket customer demand for these lines, it is sort of intermittent and it is usually focused in and around summer when overall floral skim pricing is very low, so they can offer up a low product price point across those summer months. So in terms of sort of value add, that is a key strategy for us that is still early stage, I'd say, which is a disappointing sort of, I suppose, point from our side. In terms of throughput on those sites, they're all busy. So both Shanghai and Guangzhou handle sort of inbound and outbound for our retail customer network in both those geographies. We hold stock for our wholesale customers ex farm and our webshop businesses are obviously busy. So we would carry north of 150 floral lines in stock in both those locations for overnight delivery into consumers and into small businesses. So these are busy sites. I would say, a guess on sort of volume throughput, again, we don't run 24-hour shifts, but we would be less than half in terms of sort of capacity potential for those sites. So we're not -- there's no bottlenecks on site.

Thanks, Hugh. And final question, are there any opportunities to export flowers from China into other markets apart from Australia?

Certainly. And I think the point I've tried to make is that the number of operators that are trading and exporting product into parts of Asia and parts of Europe has increased a lot in the last 12 months. We've got constant inbound inquiry from exporters and traders in other parts of the world looking for product. So I think in terms of our export mix, it will increase. So I think for the first time in as long as I've been working in our China business, which is a decade is we've been the principal exporter into Australia for that period. Now there is, I think, finally some competitive tension for moving product out of China into other markets around the world. And some of the bigger sort of traders of product ex Europe have arrived and have multi-outlet locations that are grabbing product and moving it into Europe. So I think it's a positive development because it brings another sort of demand tension to the market, which hasn't been present.

That's great, Hugh. We've exhausted the [ group ]. So back to you for any final remarks.

Look, well, thank you, everyone, for your time. We will be on the road, obviously, shortly face-to-face with a lot of you. So I look forward to having some fruitful conversations with you about what's going on in the business over the coming weeks. Thanks, everyone.