Magna International Inc. (MG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

[Presentation]

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm excited to get things started. Sharing our progress our ability to capitalize on opportunities and how we are building long-term value for our shareholders. Before I get into some of those details, I think it's important to reiterate what drives us. It is our vision, advancing mobility for everyone and everything responsibly. It's a common purpose shared by all of our employees. It also drives our passion to deliver results and long-term value for our shareholders. Magna is a strong company, growing in many of our product areas, and well positioned for the car of the future. Take for instance, as addressable markets and electrification and active safety experience rapid growth, we are matching pace by delivering on the EV needs of our customers in key regions and growing our scale in active safety, placing Magna among the leaders in this area. Additionally, with a renewed focus on operational excellence. We have intensified our activities that are driving increased efficiency and productivity, contributing to margin expansion. Beyond our actions, we lean on our foundational strengths to manage through all changes short and long term. Something we have done for more than 6 decades. The progress in our strategy gives us confidence in our outlook for growth and margin expansion. We expect balanced sales growth of approximately $10 billion from '22 to '25 with about $5 billion coming from megatrend areas. We expect to be profitable in megatrend areas by 2025 as our investments are reaching an inflection point. We also expect adjusted EBIT margin expansion of at least 230 basis points from '22 to '25 and that our sales growth and margin expansion will contribute to increasing free cash flow generation and rising returns on investment. A hallmark of Magna is a strong financial foundation, including a solid balance sheet as well as a disciplined and consistent capital allocation strategy. With increasing earnings and free cash flow, we expect to bring our leverage ratio back into our target range next year. As experienced in the past, we are at the peak of an investment cycle largely to support mega trend growth. We should see our CapEx to sales ratio decline over the next couple of years with the launch of significant new business. Let's start with what makes us different from others in our space. We think like an automaker without being one. We call this the power of one Magna. Our ecosystem of interconnected products and complete vehicle expertise delivers system solutions like no other supplier can. We take an integrated systems approach that I believe is aligned with how OEMs will design, source and manufacture in the future. As we look for new ways to reduce cost and differentiate themselves in a highly competitive market, our approach is well suited to meet their needs. Now getting into our go-forward strategy. We continue to accelerate the deployment of capital towards high-growth areas, drive operational excellence globally and unlock new business models and markets that are emerging in mobility. Let's start with the first pillar. As we have demonstrated in the past, the majority of our portfolio is aligned with are positively impacted by the megatrends driving the car of the future. In the positively impacted areas shown in green, markets are expanding. We continue to increase our investments and we remain on track to significantly grow our portfolio. For illustrative purposes, we separately identified our Complete Vehicle segment reflecting its unique nature in the cycle of program awards in this business as well as the distorting impacts of revenue recognition accounting on our sales in this area. The largest part of our portfolio remains relevant to the car of the future shown in blue. Here, we expect to continue to grow in line or better than the market. Let me update you on some of those positively impacted areas, namely powertrain electrification, battery enclosures and active safety. First, our progress in powertrain electrification. As many of you know, there are numerous electrified vehicles coming to market globally. In fact, we expect over 600 models by 2025. We are actively and deliberately positioning ourselves for this long-term irreversible market shift. Given our position in the industry, we are working closely with OEMs to support this transition. Last year, about 2/3 of our program awards were on upcoming electrified platforms. And so far this year, just over 1/3 of our annual awards are on electrified vehicles with significant opportunities ahead. However, we are taking a selective measured and thoughtful approach to the programs we invest in to help mitigate volume fluctuations. We are supporting our customers' transition through our powertrain strategy, which includes both systems and components. On the system side, we have now won a total of 7 eDrive programs with 6 different customers, including a combination of primary and secondary drives. This includes business with OEMs based in North America, Europe and Asia. Three of the eDrive programs are in production and two more will start in the next 6 months. In addition, we are now producing hybrid DCTs for BMW and Stellantis with a Mercedes program still to come in 2025. In addition to supplying full systems, we have won powertrain electrification content with 15 OEMs on 32 platforms through both wholly owned and joint venture entities. We recently announced two new ED coupler awards for two OEMs that help improve EV efficiency. And we continue to expand our presence in the value chain. Our LG Magna e-Powertrain JV is a key contributor here with sales growing from around $150 million in 2019 to about $600 million last year. And sales in the JV are expected to grow at a 40% CAGR from '22 to '25. To support this growth, we have started production in a new facility in Mexico. And just this week, we announced an additional facility to be built in Eastern Europe. We anticipate that this JV will reach profitability this year. And last month, we announced a long-term supply agreement with ONSemi, which allows Magna to integrate silicon carbide-based technology into our future eDrive systems. We believe the transition to electrification offers a significant market opportunity for Magna. Currently, we only participate in about 35% of the transmissions market with our dual clutch and manual offerings. With the transition to EVs, we can address the entire market with our eDrives and with a higher average content per vehicle. At the same time, only about 20% of today's global market is equipped with an all-wheel drive or 4-wheel drive system. Based on current market expectations, secondary e-drives should be in about 30% of electric vehicles and have a higher content per vehicle than mechanical systems. As a result, there is a much larger addressable market for Magna in an EV world. We expect to roughly double our managed electrification sales this year and almost double again between '23 and '25. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange, our expected managed sales of approximately $4 billion for 2027 are largely in line with last year's estimate. This represents a 35% annual average growth from '22. An important focus for us during the shift to electrification is the reuse of capacity currently producing traditional driveline products. Today, we manufacture traditional and 48 volt hybrid DCTs in the same facilities. Similarly, we are producing e-drives in all-wheel-drive, 4-wheel-drive facility. We are using the same engineering and manufacturing expertise, skill labor, supply base and to the extent possible installed manufacturing assets. Much of the incremental capital for new products is program related. We intend to extend this strategy to other facilities globally as we win further electrification business. This reuse of capacity allows us to transition both financial and human capital while managing program changes and costs. Our opportunities in electrification continue to extend beyond electrified powertrains. For instance, our battery enclosures business where we now have awards with 9 global customers has exceeded our initial expectations. We are establishing a strong market presence in key regions, building a competitive moat, a strategy similar to the truck frame business that we initiated throughout North America in the late 1980s. Many of the components for these large systems are sourced from Magna divisions. And where possible, we are vertically integrating this business into current facilities to efficiently utilize existing assets. These are large, complex, high-content products that are required for every EV. And we're using our extensive structures assets and expertise to provide optimal design and cost solutions for our customers. We expect our sales to roughly quadruple this year in this product area to around $400 million and grow to over $1.5 billion by '25. By 2027, we expect sales of around $2.5 billion, well ahead of what we communicated last year. Our success in exceeding our previous growth expectations is a large contributor to our capital spending plans over the next 3 years. Now turning to active safety. In early June, we successfully completed the Veoneer Active Safety transaction, which has expanded our ADAS portfolio by incorporating complementary products customers, geographies, engineering and software resources. We also enhanced our full system capabilities, which should accelerate content per vehicle opportunities and allow us to explore additional possibilities across Magna. We have hit the ground running, ensuring a smooth integration and have already identified $70 million in synergies. Overall, the business is on track with the expectations, as outlined when we announced the acquisition. Our combined active safety business is on its way to becoming a global leader with 2024 sales of about $3 billion, a comprehensive portfolio with leading market positions and a global presence with more than 2,600 systems and software engineers. The ADAS domain is growing rapidly and expected to reach $40 billion by 2030. This growth is being driven by increasing market and regulatory requirements technology advancements as well as changing business models. We have a clear and purposeful direction with a focus on making driving more comfortable, convenient and safer. We have both competence and experience in serving our customers as a component supplier and integrator and a full system supplier. We are purposely flexible and agnostic in working with OEM in-house and external partner choices to support our customers' desired system and feature functionality. Today, a higher proportion of our sales are in components. Given increase in system complexity in the future, we expect to see a much stronger partnership model with OEMs and a clear shift towards integrator and system support. At the same time, OEM architectures are shifting away from decentralized approaches driving higher content opportunities beyond just the supply of components. Our comprehensive portfolio and capabilities, both in active safety and across Magna allow us to capture more value in this new vehicle architectures in a way that few other suppliers can. Overall, we can create a number of intelligent advanced and industry-leading mobility solutions. Combining domains and functions from the broader Magna portfolio can provide benefits on price, performance and reduction of vehicle complexity. Our integrated activities in driver monitoring, connected powertrains and front integration panels are great examples. We are already using our vast experience and sensor suite to evaluate customer scenarios in a smarter way. For example, we're using a combination of lower-cost thermal and imaging radar instead of more expensive and less mature LiDAR components. Furthermore, our scalable portfolio of sensors and system packages can support a wide range of our customers' needs. Lastly, our active safety business has a diversified customer base of leading OEMs and a good balance in terms of geographic footprint. We have a deliberate strategy in place regarding the customers we aim to support and the geographic regions we intend to focus on. Our business was growing rapidly even before the acquisition, over 25% on average per year to about $2 billion in 2027, largely in line with what we said last year at our investor event. We now expect an average growth rate of 45-plus percent over this period to approximately $4.25 billion in 2027. Next, I'll discuss our program activity in complete vehicles. Currently, we are ramping the Fisker Ocean. Additionally, we are engaged in engineering and development work with INEOS for a new EV coming in 2026. And we recently announced the award of the replacement business for the Mercedes G-Class which launches next year and will include an all-electric version. This will add to the 40-plus years that we have been the sole producer of this iconic off-roader. As you can see, our Graz facility is transitioning to a higher proportion of EV production, particularly with some of these programs. We are also actively engaged in discussions regarding other complete vehicle opportunities. Now to this point, I've been highlighting our progress in areas positively impacted by megatrends. We are consistently securing new business experiencing growth and further solidifying our position in product areas that align with the car of the future. These are businesses where we have global scale and we are among market leaders. We expect to grow 2% to 4% above market in this category from '22 to '27. Just a few of the recent program awards supporting this growth above market include the truck frame, seats, outside mirrors and exteriors for the next-generation Ford F150 lightning, mirrors, e-latches and other content on a high-volume EV customer program significant new fascia business on multiple programs from a Europe-based global OEM and seats on GM's EV pickup trucks to be produced at Orion assembly. Before I move on to the next pillar in our strategy, I want to emphasize that we are on track to shift our portfolio as our business continues to grow. Based on our plans, we expect the fastest-growing areas of our portfolio to grow meaningfully from 2% in '22 to about 15% in 2027. And including complete vehicles, from 16% to 25% in the same timeframe. Additionally, over this period, we anticipate organic weighted growth over market for overall Magna to average at least 3%. Next, let me update you on how we are driving operational excellence, which we leverage as a competitive advantage. This is particularly important when considering that we expect to ship around 2 billion components and systems from our facilities this year. Over the past 2 quarters, I have shared specific areas of operational improvements where we have taken a number of actions to mitigate short- and mid-term macroeconomic pressures. These include consolidation, restructuring and cost containment activities at different levels across the company as well as our engagement in ongoing commercial negotiations with customers to recover cost, to transition to various index programs and address pricing on challenging programs. The implementation of these actions is well underway and we are already seeing the benefits reflected in strong earnings alongside our sales growth this year. At the same time, we have been intensifying our efforts in areas that are core to our daily business and increasing the adoption of advanced technologies to improve long-term productivity. These efforts encompass automation smart manufacturing activities and our enterprise-wide global purchasing initiatives. Such activities are key in addressing inflationary challenges currently affecting the industry and are also integral to our broader digital transformation goals. We expect these collective activities to contribute approximately 150 basis points of margin expansion between '22 and our outlook to '25. We estimate that more than half of this should be realized this year. Now let me share some specifics on initiatives we are implementing that are driving longer-term benefits for Magna. Two common production challenges we face are: one, microstops, where a specific short duration interruption can go undetected but accumulates over time into something more impactful along the production line. And two, customer expedites also called Hot Jobs, where a customer certainly reprioritizes a specific and urgent production order. Both of these disrupt the efficient flow of operations. However, through ongoing pilots and the use of new analytical tools, we have been able to minimize disruptions, decrease cost by prioritizing resolution and develop optimal routing for improved efficiency. We are actively collecting and analyzing real-time data to make necessary adjustments to processes and drive cost reduction. In one example, we are analyzing vibration patterns in machining to proactively address tool wear through modified cycle times or proactive tool maintenance, ultimately extending the tools life and protecting part quality. In another example, we are measuring changes in material inflow into a dye and clamping pressure to prevent scrap, optimize tool uptime and improve maintenance scheduling. In fact, our innovative approach in this area was recently recognized with a PACE Award. These activities can be easily scaled across similar applications. And given Magna's size the benefits derived from these initiatives are significant. Digitization is playing a crucial role in enhancing process control and enabling predictive maintenance leading to cost reduction. For instance, we have implemented laser scanning technology to analyze over 41,000 kilometers of Mig wells annually giving us a complete digital profile. This allows us to optimize each well and significantly reduce scrap. In another operation, we are measuring oil temperature changes. This enables us to predict bearing failures, which is both expensive and time consuming. By using sensor data, leading indicators help mitigate risk of costly failures. This digitization initiatives are already being scaled across multiple facilities, further maximizing their impact. Lastly, we are increasingly connecting production equipment through Magna via a digital network, enabling real-time monitoring of performance and operating parameters. This connectivity allows for rapid response to issues and improve process control by identifying parameter changes that could negatively impact production. The result is reduced variability and enhanced operational efficiency. This year, we anticipate connecting nearly 12,000 devices and we project this number to reach around 50,000 by 2025. In our complete vehicle manufacturing operations, we are continuously striving to enhance operating flexibility which has been a long-standing aspect of our operations. Notably, we were the first contract rate manufacturer to produce vehicles with different powertrains on the same line in sequence. This has included the Fisker Ocean ice-based Toyota Supra and BMW Z4 and ICE and hybrid versions of BMW 5 Series vehicles. We have also achieved the simultaneous production of the Jaguar I-PACE and E-PACE on a shade line. To further improve our operational flexibility we are implementing additional activities in body shop, general assembly and supply chain management in Graz as new programs launch. For instance, the capability to build different body styles and platforms on a shaded line is facilitated by a rotating framer. As you can see here, the turntable can accommodate up to 3 different framers and automatically switches between them based on the upcoming vehicle. Let's take a look at this in action. As a sedan body enters the line, the Sedan framer is automatically deployed. Subsequently, when an SUV enters the line, the turntable switches to the SUV framer highlighted in green. As a unique enabler in our body shops, we can build different car types like SUVs or sedans, different powertrains and for different OEMs. This results in reduced program integration time and cost. As we continue to implement these new tools to further enhance Magna's overall operating system, we see opportunities to reduce our cost structure and further improve our competitiveness over time. This should allow us to continue to win business, manage ongoing pricing pressure and cost inflation as well as contribute to margin expansion. All of these activities further support our 2025 outlook and beyond. Lastly, I'll update you on the approach we are taking to unlock new business models and markets. We continue to see an expanding ecosystem for Magna to go beyond the traditional supply and manufacture of vehicles. While there are some estimates that the new mobility market could be $500 billion by 2030, the specific segments we are focused on are expected to grow to $200 billion about 4x what the market is today. In particular, we are focusing our efforts in areas like mobility infrastructure, including electrification, product manufacturing beyond autos and vehicle systems and entire life cycle services connected to these products. We are leveraging existing products and processes across our portfolio to execute this strategy. These, together with our systems capabilities, global manufacturing and engineering expertise, make us an ideal partner in this new space. However, we are taking a disciplined approach here and intend to only invest as we grow this business. The segments we intend to participate in include goods and people, mobility, and we are making progress in both. Through our JV with Yulu, we recently launched an electric battery as a service platform, which has proven to be successful in one of the world's largest 2-wheel markets. Since we invested in the JV last September, our network has surpassed 0.5 million swaps per month, generating a recurring revenue stream. We are manufacturing autonomous robots for last mile delivery and have multiple proof-of-concept projects for material handling underway at Magna facilities. Given our manufacturing expertise and the growing market for autonomous bots, we are an ideal industrialization partner. And we are building an integrated software platform our connected hardware offerings that can support new markets and recurring revenue opportunities. It is early days, and we continue to evaluate new growth opportunities in this space while maintaining a cautious view on investment. However, based on our forecast, we believe our sales could be about $300 million by 2027 with a significant runway for growth going forward. To sum it up, we remain optimistic about the future of mobility and Magna's role in it as our addressable markets grow. Next, I'll pass the presentation over to our Chief Financial Officer, Pat McCann.

Thanks, Swamy, and good morning, everyone. Swamy has taken you through our recent progress on our go-forward strategy. As always, the strategy is underpinned by a consistent set of capital allocation principles. First, we want to maintain a strong balance sheet, ample liquidity and high investment-grade ratings to provide flexibility to invest for the future and manage through downturns. We continue to invest for profitable growth, focusing on the car of the future. We are also identifying gaps and growth opportunities to further strengthen our portfolio through both M&A and internal investments. Finally, we intend to continue returning capital to shareholders. Overall, our disciplined profitable approach to growth has served Magna and our shareholders well over the years, and we will remain a foundational principle going forward. With respect to M&A, the filters we use are aligned with our strategy. We are looking at targets that expand and complement our technology base, help better balance our customer base and enhance our geographic footprint in a particular region. We provided our updated 2023 outlook with our Q2 reporting last month. We increased our sales outlook, largely reflecting higher vehicle production and the closing of the Veoneer Active Safety transaction. We increased our EBIT margin outlook as a result of solid operating performance even with the inclusion of Active Safety acquisition, which is launching significant new business over the next 18 months. We are now raising our outlook for 2025 that we first provided back in February of this year. This update solely reflects the incorporation of Veoneer Active Safety and expected cost synergies related to the combined ADAS business. All other assumptions and financial information are unchanged from February. We now expect sales between $46.7 billion and $49.2 billion for 2025 representing an increase of approximately $2 billion from the outlook we provided in February. I'm happy to say our adjusted EBIT margin remains in the range of 6.7% to 7.8% and our capital spending is up approximately $100 million, reflecting program spending in the former Veoneer business. Now let's look at our sales in megatrend areas that are increasing as reflected in our outlook. Sales for these product areas were just under $1 billion combined last year. And including the Active Safety acquisition, are expected to more than double to over $2.5 billion this year and double again by 2025. These products have a sales CAGR of over 80% in the period from 2022 to 2025. As the sales growth continues, our roughly $1.2 billion of engineering spending in these areas, including Veoneer, is expected to be relatively flat over our outlook period. These products are reaching an inflection point, and we are beginning to leverage our engineering spend. In 2022, heavy engineering investments and a low but rapidly growing sales base resulted in losses of over $500 million in megatrend areas. By 2025, we expect to be solidly profitable with further increases expected beyond '25. In total, across all product areas, we are expecting overall sales growth of around $10 billion from 2022 to ' 25, including about half in megatrend areas. This is partially driven by the record business awards we achieved in '22, which were 30% above our 5-year average. This peak period of growth is driving the near-term capital investment. However, our CapEx to sales ratio is expected to decline to the mid-4s by 2025. Just as a reference point, we exceeded a 5% threshold during the periods of growth, such as in 2016 and 2017. More than $1 billion of our expected capital investment over the next 3 years, including about $500 million this year alone is to build on our strong position in battery enclosures. With our recent acquisition of Active Safety together with increased capital investments to support booked business, our leverage ratio sits at 2.19x, which is tracking better than our previous expectations as a result of our improved operating results. We anticipate reducing this ratio by the end of this year and through '24, providing us with increased flexibility with respect to utilizing free cash flow we expect to generate. I want to end by assuring you that we remain highly focused on execution across the company to deliver our outlook. This includes successfully launching the significant new business in front of us, expanding margins, generating strong free cash flow and increasing returns as well as getting back into our long-term targeted leverage ratio. With that, I'll pass it back over to Swamy to wrap up.

So far today, we are focused on the business. However, there is much more to Magna. Our people who make up our unique culture, a culture that holds all of us accountable to live our core values of think big, never settle be collaborative and take responsibility. We innovate to deliver smarter, safer and cleaner products. We thrive on the perspectives of our diverse and inclusive workforce, and we give back to our 400-plus communities where we operate and, of course, our planet. In fact, I'm happy to report we are further aligning our decarbonization road map with science-based target initiatives, 2050 net zero commitment. This builds on our previous commitment of a 42% reduction in Scopes 1 and 2 by 2030, placing us on a path to 90% reduction in scopes 1 and 2 and 3 by 2050. 100% renewable energy in European operations by 2025 and globally by 2030, and a 20% reduction in global energy intensity by 2027. Just as important, we have a well-thought-out strategy as to how we get there. Let me conclude by emphasizing that with the progress we continue to make each year together with the plans we put in place, I am confident that we will continue to outgrow the market, expand margins over time, generate strong returns on our investments and further shift our portfolio towards car of the future. And we will do all of this while maintaining a disciplined approach to growth. I speak for our entire team when I say we are excited about the tremendous opportunities in the coming years as the industry transforms and our addressable markets continue to grow. You can leave here today with the confidence that we continue to execute our go-forward strategy. We are highly confident in delivering our outlook, and we have a strong financial foundation. Our actions across the company are building significant value for our shareholders. Thanks for your attention this morning. We would be happy to answer your questions. Louis?

Hello, everyone. I'm glad you're able to join us for our presentation today. Our Q&A session will run similar to our quarterly calls. Swamy and Pat will be available to answer your questions. All the numbers are located directly below the video streaming window that you're watching. The numbers are also in the press release that we issued this morning. [Operator Instructions] Our operator will now take you through more details related to our Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] And the first question is from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America Securities.

Thanks for all the information this morning. It's very helpful. I just wanted to ask a first question, Swamy. As you think about the three areas of outgrowth or key areas about growth on powertrain electrification, active safety and battery enclosures. Could you give us a quick take on the competitive landscape in the supplier universe and potentially the competitive landscape you might be facing from some of your customers in-sourcing some parts through this transition?

Thanks, John, and good morning. It's a long question, John. I'll try to get it. As you talk about the three areas in electrification, ADAS and the battery enclosures, as you saw from the data, we are growing at a significant pace in all three. With respect to electrification, we are growing in line with what we talked about, roughly about $4 billion or so by 2027. But more importantly, I think in that area, we talked about winning system awards with 7 total programs, 6 secondary drives, 3 primary drives but more importantly, also to your point of how we are addressing the in-sourcing and outsourcing question. As I said before, it's really early years, as you know, in electrification. We believe as the scale continues to grow, there is more outsourcing opportunities. So with the program awards that we have, we are at the table. That's one. Number two, even when they're in-sourcing, we are working with the OEMs to supply, I would say, a significant part of the [indiscernible] and participating in that market with our e-motors, their edecouplers, the inverters and so on. If you just think about it, that's somewhere in the 60% to 70% of the [indiscernible]. And we talked about our LG Magna JV, growing at a significant pace from about $600 million today, growing at 40-plus percent CAGR going forward, right? So I think we're participating on both sides. I think the vehicle knowledge, and I know that the vehicle knowledge that we have in terms of vehicle dynamics, how to optimize the overall system efficiency whether it's traction control, stability control, working through algorithms and so on, we are able to bring solutions either in a system side or just even in a component side. A part of that was the vertical integration strategy to align road maps with ONSemi, right? How do we bring the silicon carbide technology into the systems to improve efficiency and optimization. So a bunch of these things, we believe, will keep us at the table. We are winning systems. And if you go back 20, 25 years, we started off with a 20% addressable market in all-wheel drive, 4-wheel drive systems and still we're able to build a substantial business there. Now the addressable market is bigger, content per vehicle is bigger. So I'm very positive in that area. I know it's a long answer. But we got to the ADAS side of things. We talked about diversity in customers, diversity in geography, just looking at what we have, and as I mentioned very clearly, today, a lot of the business is in components. But just to give you the scope of it, over the last 12 years, we produced more than 120 million cameras. If you look at the Veoneer, they have a rich heritage of radar expertise if I remember right, they produced 75-plus million radar units over the last 20, 25 years. As we are getting into the DMS and the thermal imaging, we are starting to produce again, in millions of units over the last 5, 7 years. Not only that, we are participating at different levels of ECUs with various OEMs in about 25-plus programs. I think a combination of this and as I talked about in my initial comments, we are at the table in some cases, we are participating in the Fusion. In some cases, we are actually doing the entire system, and we want to stay open to the OEM needs to say whether they have an in-house software architecture or they're working with their partnerships. Again, getting to about $4.25 billion by 2027, very positive, and we'll continue to stay focused on that. The last one is the battery enclosures. I think it's really a significant asset base that we have, plus the engineering expertise and the manufacturing expertise which I believe is really a competitive moat as we talk about that product line. And I think we made it analogous to the truck frame business in the late 1980s. So the one unique advantage there, John, is really having all the processes that are required and also being material agnostic, whether it's steel or aluminum or composites, whether it's castings or extrusions or stampings, the ability to bring all of this in a complex assembly, I think is really the competitive mode. There are others who are in, but it depends on what segment, what region, what material. I don't really see anybody having as broad and non-constrained view of the product as we do. Early days, I think we have to take into account the OEMs are going to look at in-sourcing to figure and understand the technology, but we see a larger outsource going forward. Again, I apologize for the long answer.

And just one quick one, and I'll pass it off. The ArcFox that you're manufacturing for BAIC and been heavily involved in, it was a good example of what Steyr can do for Chinese manufacturers. It often it was left out of the conversation, particularly in the slide that today, it was not in. I'm just curious why that is and what the potential is for Steyr with start-ups or smaller Chinese manufacturers?

Yes. Good question, John. I think if you look at China sales for Magna, half of the sales are to the Chinese OEMs. So we are in the component system side of things. We continue to have conversation leveraging what we have with our folks and our joint venture in China. As we continue to build this relationship with the Chinese OEMs in China, and we see some of the global OEMs in China coming to Europe and North America. And I think we are well positioned there. And we have said before with a good business case, we are open to that business model in other parts of the world.

Our next question is from the line of Tamy Chen with BMO Capital Markets. Tamy your line is open. You may proceed with your question.

Sorry, can you hear me?

Yes.

Yes.

Yes. My first question is, so I think you expect the -- your megatrend business areas to be profitable by 2025. Can you talk a little bit about that, the assumptions behind that. I think some investors are just wondering given the -- I guess, the competitive dynamics, what's been going on volatility-wise in the electric vehicle market as well. I think in previous years, you had some stumbles in terms of ADAS or engineering costs going a bit over budget. I think there's some concern or uncertainty with respect to the ramp towards getting to profitability. So maybe you can talk a little bit about what is based on the assumptions get you to profitability by then, whether it's the types of volumes you're looking for? Anything more you can say there would be helpful.

Yes. Thank you. As we look at 2025, whether it's megatrends or the other areas, about 90% of the business is booked, I would say, right? So a lot of the development is behind us, and you brought up the point on having some of the overspend in some of the areas in the past. A lot of this platform development has been done. And as we look at 2025, it is the proliferation of the core technology into the other extended platforms, different variants or different programs based off the same technology. So we do feel comfortable and confident that we will be able to go through that. That is one part of it. And obviously, I talked a lot about the operational excellence. It is not just the automation and some of the examples that you saw. It's really a lot about launch reviews, looking at leading indicators in terms of how the tests are going, how the validation is going. We have intensified that over 2019, 2021. And we feel really confident that we should be able to manage that going forward. And not only that, as I talked about the B&R acquisition, we feel comfortable and the synergies that we identified and the talent base that we have to be able to go through the launches that we are going through. As it pertains to the electrification take rate, it's really working with the customers, right? Nobody can really concretely state the take rates there. We are being as dynamic as possible with the market. We obviously are taking measures to work with the customers to see how we can stage ramp some of the volume, put the investment in phases as it is needed, but you really can't say you're going to mitigate everything possible in terms of take it. That's a market dynamic. We have to play with it. So all said and done, I think we feel very comfortable with the assumptions we have made in terms of triangulating with IHS, triangulating with the customer volumes, knowing the information that we have from the past. But like I said, again, it's never 100%, right? We are looking at the market and managing that a little bit. But I would say 2025 outlook with what we see today, unless there is some unforeseen incident, right, in market macroeconomics, we feel really good about being able to look at the profitability that Pat indicated.

Got it. And I just have one other -- more, I guess, housekeeping or confirmation of numbers question. Pat, did you say -- so I think you're saying you're expecting at least 230 basis points of EBIT margin improvement over this 3-year period? And did I hear correctly 150 basis points of that is from operational improvements and cost savings?

That's correct. That's right, Tamy.

Okay. And lastly, I think you were saying...

No, sorry, go ahead.

I was also wondering the $4 billion of revenues in 2027. So I thought before you were at $4.5 billion. Has that number changed?

I'll jump in Swamy, but the Tamy, when you think about the $4 billion, if you go back through the presentation, what's happened is the year-over-year, we went from $4.5 billion to $4 billion. $500 million of it is foreign exchange, primarily weakling of the euro and the Korean won. So the amount of activity in the business is unchanged.

Our next question is from the line of Tom Marian with RBC.

Swamy on active safety, and I know in the 2023 guidance, I think this business was a slight drag on margins for H2, but then obviously, judging from the guidance you've given today, there's the $70 million of synergies. And just curious, outside of the synergies, how should we think about profitability of active safety, presumably, as this business ramps, you should see a natural movement up on the margin profile of this business.

Yes, I think you're right on what we talked about of the Veoneer acquisition, and Pat, you can add to it. The metrics that we talked about during the acquisition remain the same, right, that it's going to be EBITDA neutral in '23, EBIT neutral in '24 and getting to a $70 million plus run rate synergies by end of '25. That remains in place. But I think the important questions that I talked to you about is as the business continues to scale, that's where we start leveraging the spend that we had in engineering, right? And we've talked about this $900 million in all megatrend areas over the last few years. And the business continues to grow from the revenue side. It was it continues to double with $1 billion to $2 billion to $4 billion and beyond going into 2027. As we start seeing the scale, we'll definitely see the profitability not being linear, right? That's where you start to get the step function change going forward. As you look at every coat or every program, we always look at it from a returns perspective. Today, it's not profitable because of the heavy investment spending that we've had. But we start seeing definitely getting to what I would call the normal Magna profitability over the coming years. And with the scale that we talked about and having all the building blocks that are necessary and being able to address the market from a component or component integration to a full system all the way. I think we feel really confident that, that product line will be in line with the Magna metrics that we have in the long run.

Great. And Tom, the only thing I would add, Swamy, is when you think about our updated outlook for 2025, we've increased sales by $2 billion, and we've held margins. So you're -- it is dropping down at roughly the Magna average.

Got it. Actually, the little follow-up off of what Swamy you just said, moving up the food chain from components to integrator to system solutions, how does this business when you bought it, it was strong in radar, you mentioned the component side. Just curious like as you bought this business on the integration and System Solutions side, is this something that you guys are building out better? Or is there already -- are all these two newer business categories kind of already embedded within the DNA? Just curious about how you view moving up that food chain. Is that something Magna is doing? Or is that something that's already within the DNA of this business?

Great question, Tom. I think it was there in both companies, right? And that's the reason why I gave some of the statistics when John asked the question. When we talk about the programs that Magna had pre-Veoneer we already had in some programs, not just the supply of the cameras or other components, we were actually doing fusion of different inputs to provide the feature functionality, right, like lane keep assist, trailer detection and so on, which is really a combination of different things to get the feature functionality to the consumer. And the same thing on the Veoneer side. And that's the reason why I said we had more than 25 programs on ECUs like we are really looking at the fusion and bringing together the inputs from various things to give the necessary consumer feature that is needed. Now as we bring the two together, obviously, there's a lot of synergies. The natural thing to happen is the integration of the software capabilities and controls and so on. And also a lot of knowledge in terms of geography and the customer interaction. Now with what Magna brings along is in addition to that is what I just talked in the past examples of DMS, bringing mirrors and cameras together. We are looking at material technologies in fascia, how do you mitigate interference when you put a radar behind fascia. So a lot of the other combinations are coming together. And in the future, how we can bring this together with Powertrain to make it a connected powertrain to offer other functionalities to make driving, as I say, safer, convenient and comfortable. So I think there's a lot more that we can do together, but each side had already an integral DNA to build systems.

Our next question is from the line of Itay Michaeli with Citi.

Great. Just a couple more questions on active safety. And I apologize if I didn't miss this. But on the 2027 revenue target of over $4 billion, can you maybe share how much of that is already booked and maybe a split of how much of it is sort of our Level 2 plus, Level 3 kind of beyond the basic ADAS layer?

Yes, great question. If I -- and Pat jump in, right? I think if I look at the book to unbooked in 2027, I would say about 60 -- mid-60% is booked. It's very difficult to break it down into what -- the way you said to L2, L3 and so on and so forth. But I would say a significant piece of it is a combination of not really L1, right? It's more towards the L2 L2+, but it's very difficult to categorically break it down into piece. So about 65% of it is booked business going out to 2027, which is really good visibility and we continue to have a lot more conversations. There is a lot of programs that we're launching in the next 18 months, and that's where our focus is.

That's very helpful. And maybe just a quick follow-up. As you look to improve margins in active safety and find efficiencies. Are there any parts of the Veoneer portfolio that you may look to deemphasize, for example, something like stereo vision or anything else in that portfolio that you might not look to continue?

At this point of time, I don't think so. We have just talked about pre-acquisition, and we were very diligent on looking at what we are buying and why? And we saw a lot of complementary nature in geographic footprint, in the product line, in the customers, and we still continue to see the same thing. There's no change in opinion. But as a normal process, we continue to look at every product line every year, ground up to see what are we doing, how much should we be doing? Where should our focus be? And that will go through in the November time frame, part of the normal business planning process. But we've been, what, 2 or 3 months into it now, I'm definitely encouraged by what we see and absolutely optimistic and confident with the assumptions that we made. At this point of time, I see nothing that we are not really excited about.

Our next question is from the line of Colin Langan with Wells Fargo.

Just to clarify, I think in the past, you had mentioned the in year would have about $1.9 billion in sales by 2024. The guide today increases '25 in by just $2 billion. So why -- it seems like a little bit of moderation from '24 to '25. Did I miss something? Is that just FX? Or what's driving sort of the weaker additional growth?

Yes. I think as we look at the overall, right, I don't remember the exact numbers, but we were growing at 25-plus percent in Magna Electronics by itself. And obviously, there was a little bit of tentativeness from the customers given the uncertainty of the whole process that has been going on for a year, 1.5 years. But if I just look overall of the combined entity, and we talked about it today getting to about $4.25 billion by 2027. And if you just looked at the book to unbooked ratio, it's better than normal, I would say, or in line with what we are used to seeing out 5 years. A little bit of plus or minus here and there, but I think the growth rate of 40-plus percent going forward we feel really good. Like I said, I think the focus right now is on launching the programs in the next 18 months and continue to have the discussions with our customers.

And Colin, the only thing I would add is there's no surprises. There's no loss business. I think the one -- it was slightly below the $1.9 million you're referring to that we guided back in December of last year. But there's no surprises. It's really just the timing of business awards and the launches as we go through. So it's still consistent with our business case and our outlook.

Got it. And you talked about this a bit earlier, but there has been comments from automakers about EV sales may be moderating. And obviously, you don't have control of where that goes. But if EV growth does sort of fall short of where current market expectations are, how should we think about the sensitivity of your sales outlook and of your margin outlook? Does -- are you able to sort of pull back some of these investment costs if needed to kind of manage margins? And would it actually impact your sales negatively? Or do you have a lot of ice stuff that would then sort of wash out the maybe lower-than-expected EV growth?

I think it's a very interesting question. Really, as I mentioned, I think in my comments as well as the one of the previous questions, it's really difficult to pin down what the take rates are going to be, right? So you have to look at different variables. One, work with the customers to see if we can invest in stages for volume ramp. Second thing, as you design through the manufacturing process, how much modularity can you put in place? We do all of this. But for sure, this doesn't mitigate 100% of the volume risk. There is always a conversation, but it's a commercial discussion at that point with the customer to figure how we manage. And as you look at the ICE versus the EV, right, some of it I said in the comments, the EV shift is irreversible. The question really is at what speed and at what take rates, but you have to be there for the right evolution. I think that's how we are approaching it, having a lot of conversation with the customers, putting as much modularity and flexibility as possible. And if you look at all the overall tailwind seems to be in EV going forward. And again, I talked about triangulation of the assumptions with third-party market estimators in terms of volume, the etches, the customers and us. It's really a little bit of an art, not just purely science I don't think it's possible to get to the granularity of saying what exactly is the impact given on take rates.

Great. And we're just on so many platforms. It's really platform-specific more so than EV specific. And the only other data point I would put out, Swamy, is our EV penetration is expected to be about 20% in 2025, Collin, to give you some perspective. So we're still much more heavily weighted to ICE than we would be to EV in the short term.

Our next question is from the line of Dan Levy with Barclays.

Thank you for this informative session. Wanted to go back to, I think, some of the other questions. And I think you addressed this, but it's just getting to the question on bridging to breakeven within active safety specifically, when Veoneer was a publicly traded company, they had a track record of negative profit I don't think you've ever disclosed profitability of your active safety business, but there was a lot of investment there. So I guess I'm wondering the path to breakeven and profitability, is it just that you passed the heavy part of spend and that there is a lot of scale ahead? I guess I'm just wondering what exactly is changing now with the new combined entity?

I can jump in. So Dan, when you think about when we talk about our megatrend profitability breakeven point, it's more than just the ADAS piece. So we're capturing battery frames. We're capturing EVs and we're capturing the ADAS piece. So it's a combination of two. I think the acquisition of the former Veoneer Active Safety business is accelerating our path to breakeven, primarily because of scale. There are synergies to be realized. I think the other piece you have to consider when you go back to your own Veoneer, that incorporate much more than what we purchased. We acquired the active safety portion, not the restraint controls nor the arrival portion where they were spending heavily in that space. So I really think it's a combination of holding our engineering spend flat, scaling our business, and you can see the volume growth is coming at us and you're dropping contribution margin down to the bottom line. Those are the three big factors.

Great. And then just as a follow-up on active safety. Maybe you could just give us a sense, a, this is -- I think it's primarily hardware assets that you acquired? And how much more work needs to be done to add software capabilities? Or do you think you're there? And then how are you -- I think one of the questions that's come up is within Vision a notable Tier 2 has been taken efforts to bring on some Tier 1 capabilities. How do you avoid some of that disintermediation risk?

Yes. I think as we talked about different components and the added scale and I specifically mentioned the software capability of this 26 plus 100 engineers, but engineering is one aspect of it. We have had a lot of, call it, intellectual capital in terms of bringing Fusion, right, which is when you talk about the surround view camera or the rearview camera or in different aspects of this or inputting radars and so on. We have always focused on what is the consumer feature that we are addressing? And how do we best address it and bring it to life. As we went through this process, there has been a lot of intellectual base build in software and feature functionality. And we believe we have a great foundation, and we continue to build on it. It's a fast-changing world, and you have to keep the nature to be flexible with the tech that is so fast changing. But I don't believe there is a significant gap today that needs to be addressed. With that said, we have to continue to evolve with the technology, but we feel pretty good whether it's OEM giving us a integrated role or in some cases, a complete system or giving components, we can contribute to the middleware to the base software because the OEMs are differentiating in the software for their brand, and they might want to have a piece of that and manage that piece. But as far as the middleware and the base software is concerned, which doesn't interface with the consumer directly, there's a lot that we can provide in terms of synergies so that you don't have to reinvent the wheel every time.

Okay. And then just if I could just squeeze in one more and this one on complete vehicles. I think in the past couple of years, there was a unique opportunity to help new entrants to mobility derisk their path to ramping up. I think we've seen it's been a tougher go for a lot of the new entrants. So wondering how, if at all, strategy in complete vehicles have shifted. To what extent are you pushing more heavily on established legacy OEMs and helping them provide -- providing them with easy capacity, where maybe it's a little harder for them to achieve scale right now? How are you -- how are the new business efforts in complete vehicles shipping?

Yes, great question. I don't think the fundamental strategy for the complete vehicle has shifted, right? We've always said we have to be able to bring -- I think as you saw in the presentation, the flexibility to address different platforms, different volume for different OEMs and how do you provide economies of scale, right? So as you talk about EV and it's got a long tail, everybody is making guess -- we all of us as an industry, are seeing when it will get to amass. And while we are going through this transition, we feel there is a lot of opportunity, whether it's ICE consolidation, or it's a specific EV platform with our customers that we have today or with a new entrant. But as we consider all of this, one of the important aspect like any other part of the business we look at is what are the returns? What is the duration of the program? What's the brand? What's the success factor for volume and so on and so forth. And we build different commercial terms around it. That's no different. But with the industry that's transforming like I said, with ICE consolidation with new EV platforms coming. And generally, when we have a program in our complete vehicle assembly, the content for the rest of the Magna is a little bit higher than the average. So if you take all of this into account, I think we are still very positive about this side of the business.

Our next question is from the line of Michael Glen with Raymond James.

Just on CapEx spending. So as we think about what's happening in North America in terms of this EV industry ramping up. We have seen some fairly significant CapEx investments announced by Magna alongside of this. I mean you had that Blue Oval announcement a couple of months ago. Prior to that, there was some a large facility in Michigan that was indicated and a big investment in Ontario as well. And then earlier this week, you had the LG plant announcement to. To what degree -- if we're thinking about a moderating CapEx profile for the business over your outlook, -- is there -- like what's the chance that some of these investments just come across? Like you need to invest to pursue these business opportunities? I'm just trying to gauge like to what degree you're comfortable with that moderating CapEx outlook?

Yes. I think to the -- I think to the extent that we have the sales in the outlook, the capital that's attributed to it is also in the outlook, right? And looking at all of this, taking into consideration my previous comments, I think we feel confident, right? And Pat talked about us going through this, call it, the investment cycle. We've done that in 2016, '17. We are doing it now. And to the extent that we have sales and all the things that you mentioned just now are contemplated in the outlook. And so is the capital. And with the operational excellence that we are talking about and our conversation with the customers, in some of these battery enclosures as an example, right, we talk about the investment spend, the program-related tooling spend is given by the customer. And in some cases, even the capital. And we always talked about multiple program life cycles just like the frame business. So given all these facts, I think we are comfortable and we are very deliberate in the platforms that we are looking at and how we are going about it. Again, on top of that, I'll repeat. We continue to look through the modularity and the flexibility and the conversation with customers to see how we can stage or put in phases the capital as the volume comes, right? But all of that said, again, I'll repeat, it's not 100% mitigation, but we feel good about it.

Okay. And like on that Blue Oval investment, I think the size of that was $790 million, that's what I saw the quote in the article. But like that was -- that's capital that was already included in the CapEx outlook that you had provided at the beginning of 2023, just to be clear?

That's correct, Michael, yes.

Our next question is from the line of [indiscernible]

I wanted to just follow up on the breakdown from dual clutch manual transmissions to primary eDrive. You talked about going from a 35% take rate. in terms of addressable market to 100% for primary e-drives. Can you just talk about the 65% of the market outside of dual clutch, manual transmission? Is that just automatic transmission and what is Magna's presence in that part of the market?

Yes. I think we are talking about addressable market here, right? When you talk about dual-clutch transmissions, there is so much in-house and so much that is outsourced. And then you also take into account what is the take rate of dual clutch transmissions, which is roughly 35%. When you go to an EV world, I think every EV needs to have it dry. It's a primary drive basically. And depending on whether you want to have the all-wheel drive, 4-wheel drive functionality or not will determine whether it needs to have a secondary drive. So given the fact that every EV vehicle needs to have a primary drive, and that is the product in our portfolio now, we are saying 100% of the EV market is addressable by our product.

Yes. And just to be clear -- just to be clear, we don't participate in CVTs or planetary gear transmissions the other part of your question.

That's a great add, Pat, yes. Perfect.

That's very helpful. And just in terms of the average CPV on 1,100 for primary eDrives, 950 for secondary e-drives. Clearly, a big step-up from the current CPV for ICE transmissions at 900 and 400, respectively. Curious how you think about the evolution of the eDrive CPV over time given the cost to build EVs and the affordability concerns around EVs. Do you think that the primary eDrive and especially the secondary you drive costs will eventually work their way down toward the ICE level CPVs? Or do you think that just the amount of electronics and the complexity of the eDrive will help maintain that CPV premium over time?

It's a great question. Look, I think as the product evolves, there's always going to be -- as the scale comes through as maturity comes through the cost side of it, really evolve, which means the price also really well, right? But at the same time, we'll always have what I would call the required feature functionality and nice to have, right? So that's where you start differentiating the different segments of the vehicle. To answer your question in short, as the scale continues to ramp, and there is a significant piece of the market that goes to EVs, what you see today as the price point will definitely change, which means the cost also will evolve, right? The technology will evolve, the scale starts coming into place and everybody just gets better. So you'll definitely see that trajectory of both cost and price optimizing as we go forward.

And there are no further questions on the line at this time. I'll turn the call back to Swamy for any closing remarks.

Thank you again for joining us today. We appreciate the opportunities like this to always update on our progress and answer your questions, which are really very enlightening. I'm extremely proud of our team. As you have seen today, also very optimistic about the future. Thanks again, and have a great rest of your day.