Maire S.p.A. (MAIRE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
October 24, 2024
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Silvia Guidi
executiveGood afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today in our Milan headquarters. Today, we will review the 9-month 2024 financial results and provide a strategic update on how NextChem is enhancing its value proposition in the energy transition. For those who are new, my name is Silvia Guidi, Head of Investor Relations. I'm joined today by our CEO, Alessandro Bernini; our CFO, Fabio Fritelli; as well as the NextChem management team. After the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions. Now I would like to hand over to Sandro for his introductory remarks and an overview of the financial results. Sandro, please.
Alessandro Bernini
executiveThank you, Silvia, and welcome, everyone, to our presentation. I'm really proud and honored to have so many of you here with me in our quarter. And also thank you for all of those, which are joining us online. So the 9-month results further strengthened the momentum we built in 2023. Our key performance indicators have shown strong growth both compared to the same period of last year with revenue with revenues and EBITDA increasing by over 30% and net income rising more than 60%. At the same time, we have consistently improved profitability, generating even more value for our shareholders. This outstanding performance was also accompanied by an improvement in net cash, which is now at its highest level ever. We continue to execute business plan, expanding our technology portfolio through the acquisition of HyDEP and GasConTec. Our growth is driven by the execution of our backlog, which stands at about EUR 15 billion and by the continuous strengthening of our workforce. We bolstered our engineering capacity through both hiring and the recent acquisition of APS group. Our headcount is now approximating 9,300 people, fully equipped to serve the current energy investment cycle. Now, let's take a closer look to our operational performance. Order intake in the sustainable technology solution was about EUR 300 million, leading to a backlog close to EUR 400 million, tangible proof of the appetite for NextChem's technology offering globally. The scope of work includes advanced technology licensing, cutting-edge process design and proprietary equipment. Several feasibility studies are also underway aimed at delivering innovative decarbonization solution to our clients and producing next generation fuels and the circular materials. Our clients' significant investment programs continues to fuel order intake in integrated engineering game construction solution with EUR 3.4 billion of new orders generated in the 9 months period. The bulk of new award were secured in a variety of countries, demonstrating our commitment to geographical diversification in our operations. We are also supporting our clients in their gas monetization strategies and low-carbon projects. In particular, we are expecting in few months award for a total value exceeding EUR 6 billion related to several projects we tendered over the last few months. These potential projects are spread over several geographies and will allow our backlog to keep the pace of our growing revenues. Of course, the exact timing of these awards is completely, of course, in the hand of our clients. So moving to the project execution, let me provide a brief update on the progress of Hail and Ghasha projects. First of all, I am proud to highlight that we achieved 1 million man hours saved in September. We completed a 30% detailed level of review 3D modeling, while over 95% of equipment purchasing activities have been carried out. Construction activities have been started ahead of schedule and are progressing with the completion of the bundle in closing storage tanks and the start of the foundation building for the process area. Overall, the project is advancing well in line with the schedule and entering into the last quarter of 2024, it will significantly increase its contribution in terms of revenues. Finally, looking at the future, we continue to see a healthy and significant commercial pipeline fueled by important investment in our clients, energy and chemical infrastructures, including the EUR 6 billion project for which a final investment decision is expected in a few months' time. This concludes the review of our operating performance. And now, I will hand over to Fabio to discuss the financial results. Please, Fabio.
Fabio Fritelli
executiveThank you. Thank you, Sandro. Our financial results keep showing a sustained growth across all the main KPIs. So revenues were EUR 4.1 billion, up 33.8%, driven by steady project execution of our backlog. EBITDA was EUR 268.8 million, up 37.2% mainly thanks to higher revenues and an improved operating leverage. Margin was 6.5%, up 20 basis points year-on-year, also thanks to the contribution from high value-added services and technologies. Our net financial charges decreased by EUR 21.9 million, thanks to the positive contribution of derivatives and an increased yield on cash deposits. The combined effect of the operating and financial management has led to a consolidated net income of EUR 144.5 million, 63% up, and with a margin of 3.5%, which is 60 basis points higher than the previous period of last year. Let's now analyze the financial results by business unit. Sustainable Technology Solutions revenues were EUR 251.7 million, which is a 31.1% increase driven by a growing demand for technological solutions, particularly in nitrogen fertilizers, carbon capture and circular fuels. EBITDA was EUR 61.2 million, up 36%, reflecting the increase in revenues. The EBITDA margin increased to 24.3%, an improvement of 90 basis points, thanks to more profitable product mix. Integrated E&C Solutions revenues were EUR 3.9 billion, up 34%, driven by the steady project execution, including the engineering and procurement activities of Hail and Gasha and the other projects in construction phase. EBITDA was EUR 207.6 million, 37.5% up with a margin of 5.3%, which is an increase of 10 basis points over the same period of the previous year. Let's now move to our investments. We continue investing to strengthen our technology portfolio and expand our engineering capabilities. By the end of September, we reached EUR 75 million in investments, mainly concentrated in sustainable technology solutions. We acquired HyDEP and GasConTec, enhancing our offering in electrochemistry and low carbon solutions. We also consolidated our position in plastic upcycling by increasing our stake in MyReplast. In the E&C business, we bolstered our engineering capacity by adding over 300 professionals through APS Group acquisition. On M&A, let me remind you that a significant portion of the purchase price is expected to be deferred and/or based on earnouts. So as to distribute payment over time, linked to performance. At the same time, we continued investing in incremental R&D and digital innovation. Now, let's move on the cash flow dynamics. Our adjusted net cash position at the end of September was EUR 362.7 million, up by EUR 24.8 million compared to December 2023. Our net working capital continues to remain strong at negative EUR 379 million, reflecting the positive financial dynamics around our projects. The significant operating cash flows allowed to disburse EUR 110.8 million in dividends and share buybacks and almost EUR 34 million in investments. I now hand over to Sandro for the guidance.
Alessandro Bernini
executiveThank you. Thank you, Fabio. Now, just to wrap up. Our 9 months results provide an extremely solid foundation for the delivery of double-digit growth in 2024, which leads us to reconfirm our guidance. So group revenues are expected to step up, as we already stated before in the last quarter, driven by the planned progress of the projects acquired in 2023 as well as in the first half of this year. In this respect, Hail and Ghasha will provide a significant contribution in the quarter growth. We are steering towards the full year revenues in the middle of the range, while EBITDA margin and adjusted net cash are expected to be in line with the 9 months results. So driven by the current fundamentals, we expect of a word of a few sizable projects to take place by the end of the year. Mindful that the exact timing is obviously driven by our client planning schedules. So this concludes the review of the 9-month results and now together, let's move into the main focus of this meeting -- of this meeting with you, which is the technological journey. So as you have seen part of the growth we are experiencing this year is driven by our sustainable technology solutions business. To this effect, we would like to provide a more detailed analysis of how NextChem is enhancing its value proposition to boost our competitive edge. NextChem journey is deeply rooted in over a century of innovation in chemistry, leveraging on the pioneering series of our extensive legacy. In 2018, the rich heritage of innovation was pulled in NextChem as the focal point for the green acceleration. Since then, have been integrated both internal and external competencies in key market segments to expand its expertise. The creation of the Sustainable Technology Solutions business unit in 2023 headed by NextChem has accelerated our efforts in the energy transition. In fact, we have successfully acquired 4 technology players in less than 2 years and pulled additional key existing competencies from 3 companies within our group, and of course, more will come. It is clear that our pioneering force are paying off. Both revenues and EBITDA have shown a strong growth, and we enjoy a best-in-class profitability. This year, we expect to see a significant leap with revenues and EBITDA set to double in the 2 years' time. We are delivering on our promises, consistently meeting our targets quarter after quarter. Now, let's turn our attention to the future and the key macro drivers behind this growth story. And as we talk about the future, let me call on stage Fabio Fritelli, the newly appointed Managing Director of NextChem.
Fabio Fritelli
executiveAs we look ahead, the future holds immense potential, driven by several key macro factors. Population and GDP growth continue to fuel demand for energy and resources, while regulatory and social pressures are intensifying. Governments and industries alike are focusing on energy and food security, decarbonization, efficiency, with management, pushing for more sustainable practices. The expected energy investments in our reference markets up to 2030 are impressive. Even in the most conservative economic transition scenario, we are looking at annualized investments of $1.1 trillion. The significant investment will heavily rely on clean technologies that are both economically viable and commercially scalable, almost equally divided between traditional fossil fuels and low-carbon solutions. Technologies will be crucial in enabling this transition, serving as the backbone to make the transition happen. Now, let's discuss our formula for success in this scenario. Our value proposition is clear and leads to us. We provide end-to-end economically viable solutions to drive the energy transition from feedstock to the final product. At the heart of this capability is our superior process engineering built on the case of experience and strong track records. Our expertise allows us to develop and implement efficient, scalable solution tailored to the unique challenges of each single project. We rely on a portfolio of proven proprietary technologies, constantly enhanced through cutting-edge innovation and our ability to scale up these technologies enables us to meet the industry's evolving demands while ensuring a competitive performance. What sets us apart is our technology-agnostic approach. We have the flexibility to integrate both proprietary and third-party technologies, ensuring that we always deliver the optimal solution for each project. This versatility allows us to adapt to the specific needs of our clients, providing the best path forward in the global shift toward sustainable energy. With that in mind, let's see how we further improve NextChem organization to better face the new challenges.
Alessandro Bernini
executiveSo our new organizational structure features 3 distinct business lines designed to address the key forces driving the energy and industrial transformation. The streamlined approach will allow us to focus on our core strengths while effectively meeting the needs of our clients and the needs of the market. So now I will leave you in Fabio's hands, who will explain the purpose of each business line.
Fabio Fritelli
executiveThank you. Thank you, Sandro. First, we have sustainable fertilizers, which embodies our commitment to feed the world. This business line is dedicated to providing innovative, eco-friendly solutions that enhance agricultural productivity while minimizing environmental impact. Next, we focus on low carbon energy vectors, which reflects our mission to move the world and promote sustainable mobility. We are developing low carbon energy solutions that support the transition to cleaner transportation and energy systems. Last, but not least, circular solutions to emphasize our goal to make materials and promote recycling. This business line is committed to creating closed-loop systems and maximize resource efficiency and reduce waste. Together, these 3 business lines position us to lead the change in the energy and industrial transformation, leveraging our expertise to deliver impactful solutions that align with global sustainability goals. Our new business lines are designed to work synergistically, maximizing flexibility, expanding our coverage and unlocking cross-selling opportunities, I'm going to repeat, unlocking cross-selling opportunities. By leveraging this integrated approach, we can offer tailored technological solutions that drive value and ensure long-term partnerships with our clients. Our solutions are widely diversified. As you can see, several final products can be obtained through technologies, belonging to different business lines which are using, by the way, different feedstocks. This is further proof of the versatility of our offering in a scenario where no single path to net zero exists and there is no one single winning technology. We keep on repeating that. Such a business model allows us to better serve the needs of our clients, starting from traditional ones like the fertilizer producers or the chemical and oil and gas industry who are the frontrunners in the implementation of decarbonization solutions. At the same time, integrating our technological offering with our E&C execution capabilities and MET Development, our project management team, we will be able to reach new clients and new sectors, such as steel, cement manufacturers as well as municipalities and multi-utilities, those that manage the waste. Now let's introduce the managers leading each of each business line, starting from sustainable fertilizers with Pejman Djavdan and Barbara Cucchiella. Please come on stage.
Pejman Djavdan
executiveThank you very much, Fabio. Good afternoon, everyone. It's a great pleasure for me to be here and to be able to address you and tell you more about the business lines that I'm responsible for, the sustainable fertilizers and nitrogen-based fuels. I have personally 35 years of experience in chemical technology and in industries and have been the CEO of Stamicarbon for the last 19 years. We have grown significantly in the last 15 years as a part of Maire. And of course, we have achieved this significant growth by adding and developing new technologies and developing new services to add to our offering. Our end market is primarily driven by the growth of population. And to be able to feed this growing population, intensification of agriculture is a must. However, we need to do that in a way that does not harm the environment or the planet. And for this, we are continuing to add into our technologies and license these technologies for the production, sustainable production, of fertilizers and for the sustainable use of fertilizers. At the same time, we are also seeing an increasing use of urea and ammonia in the industrial applications beyond agriculture. And we see also these products finding new roles in various sectors which, of course, opens up new markets for us as a business. Finally, we also see ammonia emerging as a zero carbon energy carrier which is also creating exciting and profitable opportunities for us. To meet all of these demands, of course, we have different technologies. Let me start with our urea melt and granulation technology in which we are a world market leader. And we continue, of course, to develop and enhance our solutions by maximizing the energy efficiency while minimizing the environmental impact. One example that I would like to give to you is the ultralow energy concept that we have developed. And this concept is able to reduce the steam consumption of urea plants with 40%, which is a significant reduction of energy. And we have already applied this technology in 11 new plants, factories around the world. The second one I would like to highlight is the nitric acid and ammonium nitrate technology which optimizes both CapEx and OpEx for the production of nitrate fertilizers, which is again paving the way for the use of fertilizers that have zero carbon emissions. We are also at the front of developing low carbon and green technologies for the production of ammonia. And for that, I would like to ask Barbara Cucchiella to explain more. Barbara, go ahead.
Barbara Cucchiella
executiveThanks, Pejman. Just a few words about myself. I've been working for the group for more than 15 years and currently, the head of process engineering at Stamicarbon. Amongst all the developments that Pejman just mentioned, especially in the last years, we have been working on development of ammonia technology solution. In that sense, we can start discussing about ammonia that is synthesized from low carbon hydrogen. In that case, we are able to integrate our own solution with advanced proprietary hydrogen technology like autothermal reforming of catalytic partial oxidation that overall lead to a lower CO2 emission of ammonia production. This is made possible by synergies with colleagues of our business line, in particular of low carbon energy vector business line, which you will hear in a bit. At the same time, we have also developed the proprietary NX STAMI Green Ammonia production process. This is peculiar, crucial to reach long-term sustainability. And we are really proud finally to apply this for the first time in a plant in the United States. Likely, this will pave us the way for more to come in the future.
Fabio Fritelli
executiveThanks, Barbara. Thanks, Pejman. It is now the turn of low carbon energy vectors, which were mentioned, with Andrea Vena and Cristina Guazzotti. Please come on stage.
Andrea Vena
executiveGracias, Fabio. Good afternoon to everyone. As Fabio was mentioning, I'm heading our efforts in low carbon energy vectors. Just a few words about me. I'm a chemical engineer, and I have more than 30 years' experience in energy and industrial sectors. Out of this 30, 20 are in the hydrogen business, either in production and in designing and managing complex projects. If we look at our business line, the growth is supported by several drivers: first, the need to decarbonize the so-called hard-to-abate industries and transportation, which is critical to achieve global climate goals; secondly, the push to minimize the environmental impact of existing infrastructures, such as refineries, gas treatment plants and heavy industries through more efficient abatement solutions. Now hydrogen is by far considered the vector for energy transition being used in production of chemicals, iron, steel, and alongside this increasing use in power generation. Our business line is fully equipped with all the necessary competencies to provide the full spectrum of solutions. Starting from the classic SMR, steam methane reforming, which, when fed with biogenic feedstock, is for sure the simple and most effective proposition for biofuel production. Just an example, we are doing this in the ENI biorefinery in Marghera and Livorno. With the catalytic partial oxidation and the ATR, autothermal reformer, we can meet medium- to high-production needs of low carbon footprint hydrogen, and we make this available as Barbara was saying, for other business lines. Finally, we offer also reliable and cost-effective electrolysis modules for green hydrogen. Now if we move to next-generation fuels, we can have a look at our capabilities to provide a technological solution for low carbon methanol and synthetic methanol while, at the same time, we are unlocking sustainable aviation solution through cost-effective small-scale plants, which leverage on the regional availability of feedstock. Finally, but not least, our pretreatment processes, which is a fundamental step for production of sustainable aviation fuel. Now just to make a focus on low carbon hydrogen and methanol, let me hand over to Cristina Guazzotti, who will provide you with an overview of our AdWin technology. Please, Cristina.
Cristina Guazzotti
executiveThanks. Thanks, Andrea, and hello, everyone. So let me tell you a little bit about my journey in our group. I'm currently in charge of process and incremental innovation within this business line, having spent almost 30 years working in KT, mainly working on hydrogen technologies. Today, I'm really happy to share with you our NX AdWin technology suite, which has been in our portfolio since the acquisition of GasConTec early this year. This solution is centered mainly around the so-called autothermal reforming, ATR, a technology to produce low carbon hydrogen from hydrocarbons, ensuring high production yields while enabling a capture rate of CO2 over 95%. So the NX AdWin suite, thanks to the higher operating pressure of the autothermal reforming and the elevated integration with utilities and the downstream, provide with a very high energy efficiency scheme. That makes it also extremely cost effective for large plant scale. Moreover, we cover complementary back-end technology to go to other products, among which methanol, one of the most promising next-generation fuels where we see a large potential. Is it, Andrea? What do you think?
Andrea Vena
executiveThank you, Cristina. Thanks for joining us. Now just a few other points of our business line. To serve the carbonization needs of the hard-to-abate sector, we offer a variety of technologies. The most important one is the CO2 carbon technology that we are applying in our Hail and Ghasha project. But this is not only a matter of CO2. We offer also sulfur recovery technology in which we are active since the '70s and which is really important to abate the pollutants in the existing refineries and gas treatment plant. Now if you look at the polymers, the advanced polymers segment inside our business line is driven, of course, by an ever-growing demand for plastic, which is particularly true in emerging markets. At the same time, there is a regulatory pressure to have a biodegradable plastic material. And for this reason, it is imperative for us to unlock those technologies to mitigate the waste impact. To address these challenges, we offer technologies to enable the production of this bioplastics, starting from fossil fuels, and we are continuously innovating in order to minimize the carbon footprint of those technologies. I think that with this, we are [ through on our part ].
Fabio Fritelli
executiveThank you, Andrea. Thank you, Cristina.
Andrea Vena
executiveThank you, Fabio.
Fabio Fritelli
executiveFinally, it's the turn of circular solutions with Massimo Di Amato and Alessia Borgogna. Please come onstage.
Massimo Di Amato
executiveThank you. So thank you very much, Fabio, and hello, everyone. So it's been an honor for me and a privilege to be here, and we are seeing the circular solutions business line. I've been involved in NextChem since its early stages, contributing to its growth, shaping its strategic development, enhancing our low carbon and sustainable technology portfolio. So as part of the journey, I've been involved in key M&A deals, including the acquisition of MyRemono, which I'm very proud to serve as Managing Director, and GasConTec. Going back to circular solutions, there is a widespread regulatory push to reduce waste. Governments are tightening the rules in waste management, which is creating huge incentives for industries to rethink their approach. On top of that, many of these new regulations specifically promote circularity. They are designed to encourage the recycling, reuse and recovery, which perfectly fits with our core mission. So the huge availability of feedstock gives us a tremendous opportunity to capture waste streams and convert them into valuable low carbon products and material. Another critical driver is the corporate world's growing commitment to using more recycled materials. We are seeing major companies setting ambitious goals to incorporate higher percentages of recycled content in their products. This is clearly creating a powerful demand for more efficient and scalable low carbon recycling technologies. Now let me talk about the technologies we are advancing in circular solutions, starting with the NX Replast, our solution for the upcycling of plastic waste, the rigid plastic waste. So our technology tested in our own plant in Bedizzole allows us to upcycle it in more valuable products, giving this material a real second life. Our chemical recycling technology is breaking down sorted plastic waste into its original monomers. This means we can essentially return waste plastic to its raw material and reintroduce it in the production process, creating high-quality materials. We are scaling up this solution for PMMA with a view to extend it to more widely used polymers in the future. Another technology we are championing is bioenergy production from waste biomass. By converting biomass into renewable energy, we are able to offer a cleaner alternative to traditional energy sources, helping industries move towards a more sustainable energy mix. Last, but not least, we are extremely proud of our Waste-to-X solutions, which enables the valorization of waste into low carbon fuels and chemicals through gasification. On this, let me hand over to Alessia. Alessia, please?
Alessia Borgogna
executiveThank you very much, Massimo, and hello, everyone. Just a few words to introduce myself. I am part of the business development team of Waste-to-X solutions. And I have been following the development of this successful technology for the past 8 years, starting by dedicating my PhD in Chemical Engineering to this topic. With NX Circular solution, we can take waste material and convert them into syngas, which can then be transformed into valuable fuels and chemicals, like hydrogen, methanol, ethanol, and even sustainable aviation fuel by applying third-party technologies. Indeed, Waste-to-X is a clear demonstration of our ability to integrate different technologies in a proprietary process and to design an end-to-end solution. We got several awards in the past couple of years, including the most recent SAF project for DGFuels in the U.S. But we are not resting on our laurels. We are currently focusing on further development of the technology. These include digital innovations such as advanced modeling, able to combine feedstock characterization with a tailored control system of the process. Additionally, we are working to strengthen the application of our gasification technology to other feedstocks, even more challenging than conventional municipal and industrial solid waste or biomass. Actually, these are just a few examples of our contribution to the energy transition. So I hope you are as excited as I am about how our technologies can now make our world more sustainable. Thank you.
Fabio Fritelli
executiveThanks, Alessia. Thanks, Massimo. Having heard our technology portfolio, let's now see how our solutions are strategically positioned on the path to net zero. This is a slide I particularly like because we have plotted our main technologies vis-a-vis the time to large-scale market adoption, which means that, on that side, you have technologies that have yet to be proven at scale and, on this side of the slide, you have those technologies who are ready to be applied because they are already in adoption. As you can see, in fact, most of our current solutions are characterized by relatively short adoption time while, at the same time, we are developing the next-generation technologies of the sustainable future. Our blue solutions represent technologies available and commercially viable today. They service critical bridges to long-term green alternatives. Likewise, our Waste-to-X technologies are advancing towards e-fuels, paving the way for more sustainable energy vectors. Together, these innovations not only meet immediate market needs but also create a clear path towards a more fully sustainable energy ecosystem. To complete the picture, let me hand over to Mohammed Nafid. Mohammed?
Mohammed Nafid
executiveThank you, Fabio. It's a pleasure to be here. My name Mohammed Nafid. I have the privilege to be part of Maire Group for over 12 years now in various executive roles within Stamicarbon, MET Development and NextChem tech. And recently, I've been appointed the Regional Vice President for Sustainable Technology Solutions in the Middle East, responsible for all the business development for all our solutions in that region. You have seen the broadness of our technology portfolio. Let's try to understand the services offerings that we are presenting to our clients for our technology solutions. These services, our services, are defined to address specific technology needs, covering the full life cycle that the client is experiencing: from the initial feasibility all the way to the digital tools, all the way to the revamping and upgrading support that a client experiences in his lifetime. Everything starts with a feasibility study to understand and to prove the viability of our technology and the viability and the ability for us to meet the client objectives. Next, we offer licensing, process design packages, which give the right to clients to use our technologies within a process design, fully customized to the specific context of the client. Furthermore, we have catalysts and proprietary equipment that form an integral part of our technology value proposition. And these catalysts and proprietary equipment that we have are either developed fully in-house by ourselves or we developed them in collaboration with specialized technology partners. In the end, these products are produced by select and specialized suppliers. These products are very critical for us because they are guaranteeing the performance of our technologies and also optimizing them for the use in the processes of our clients. Finally, we have our digital services, which integrate cutting-edge technologies, offering real-time insights and data analytics to improve the operation and maintenance activities of our clients but also offer opportunities for training of their operators. Let's see how we are able to sell these technology solutions globally. The answer is to have a very strong local presence. As you well know, technology business is truly a global business. And it is, therefore, a very important part of our success to have the ability to effectively understand, connect and work together with our clients locally. By establishing dedicated regional platforms, we are able to be very proximate to our clients and we ensure that we foster strong relationships with traditional clients but also engage with new potential clients. It is also better for us to understand the ever-changing local context in the various regions and understand the key drivers that affect the clients' decisions, opportunities and challenges. The regional platforms are fully aligned with our business lines, enabling us to seize cross-selling opportunities, particularly with our E&C activities. Our regional model has been successfully proven, implemented over the last decade for our E&C businesses, and we have now further tailored it to also serve our technology businesses. What we see is that our clients appreciate this integrated model and the fact that we have a one-stop shop for both technologies as well as E&C. Moreover, we focus on developing and implementing in-country value strategies, which enhance local engagement and contribute to sustainable growth. This strategy not only strengthens our market position but also aligns with our goal of creating lasting value for our clients and the communities that we serve. Together, we are poised to leverage these relationships for mutual success. I'll leave the floor to Fabio, who will provide an economic view of what we have shown so far. Fabio?
Fabio Fritelli
executiveThank you. Thank you, Mohammed. Indeed, we do expect significant growth in our core markets driven by solid fundamentals and supported by the flexibility of our offering. Low carbon fuels and chemicals, blue hydrogen, circular fuels and recycled materials will contribute to growth rates in excess of 20%. At the same time, our urea leadership, so the leadership we've gained in decades in the urea field, coupled, as you have heard from Pejman, with our ammonia offering, will continue to provide a solid base to our STS revenues. Together, these trends position us for robust growth, ensuring we meet evolving market needs while driving sustainability. Let me now hand over to Sandro for his closing remarks. Sandro?
Alessandro Bernini
executiveThank you, Fabio, and thank you also to all the colleagues for your extremely insightful presentation. So as we look ahead, it is clear that the market environment remains extremely supportive. And our clients' investment strategies will continue to drive demand for both of our businesses. Our integrated approach will give also an additional hedge as clients are increasingly integrating sustainable solutions with more additional downstream assets. For this reason, NextChem's innovative technologies are well positioned to fuel our group's growth, providing an increasing contribution to our profitability. And of course, we remain excited about the prospects that we are facing and the opportunity to share this value creation with all of our shareholders. We remain focused on continuing to meet our objectives, which will be reviewed and shared with you at the time of the release of 2024 financial results next year. And to this extent, let me invite you already now. Once again, I want to see each and every one of you to our next Capital Markets Day, which is due to take place early March 2025. So with this invitation, I conclude my presentation, our presentation, and hand over to Silvia to start the Q&A session. Thank you. Thank you once again.
Silvia Guidi
executiveWe will now open the Q&A session. We will start with a question from the audience here in Milan, the remaining questions from the chat. [Operator Instructions] If you are in the room, please wait for the microphone and kindly state your name and your company name before asking the question. Who wants to break the ice?
Massimo Bonisoli
analystMassimo Bonisoli from Equita. I will start with a question on the new business units, if you can provide then how much each division accounts in terms of revenues and EBITDA right now. And how do you see the evolution in the very short term, in 2025, considering the very good number of projects you have been awarded over the past few months? Now we can put in then into perspective in each business unit. And the second question is more on your thoughts on your ability to have client reach, in the sense that I understand you are very good, for the client reach, on oil and gas, fertilizer company, chemical company. But maybe steel, cement, hard-to-abate sectors in general are maybe more out of reach, in your case. So any thoughts on potential JVs in that segment regarding steel, cement, or whatever, just to be closer to the end clients and customers.
Alessandro Bernini
executiveYours.
Fabio Fritelli
executiveI thought we would share. Okay, let me start from the first one. There was a slide which went out, which we have appropriately blurred, because when we get to 2023, you can understand, more or less. But let me be pragmatic in the answer. We have a very consolidated business line, which is the fertilizer business line. We have a very consolidated business in hydrogen and sulfur management and production based on existing technology on fossil fuel technologies. Those do make approximately 50% to 60% of our revenues in the short term, clearly. Then you have another part of the business, which is very promising, and I'll go to the top of this slide, which is the circular solutions. We have been able to, if you remember our recent announcements, get very interesting opportunities by licensing in the United States. If you have read the press in these days, there have been massive announcements of public brands to support biowaste to sustainable aviation fuel with several technologies in several ways. We have been selling license for a developer in the United States. It's called DGFuels back in, when was it, June, July?
Alessia Borgogna
executiveJune.
Fabio Fritelli
executiveJune. So that's definitely on top of what we are developing here in Italy that we are working with the major oil companies in Italy and municipalities to deploy Waste-to-X solution. So also on the circular, I would say, it's very much now. And clearly then there's the big potential of what has been told by Andrea Vena when you get to the new energy vectors, let me call it, the low carbon energy vectors, which represent the blue part of the business, so the one where we see the bigger potential going forward. And luckily, the seeds are already there today. A number of projects which are initiatives, let me put it this way because they're not yet projects but they will be soon, in ammonia and methanol is impressive. Two years ago and last year, we were talking about hydrogen. It's clearly not the vector for the short term, so you will need to bridge it with ammonia and methanol. I don't know if I gave you the answer. I will not give you precise numbers, not even under torture. And the second question was on alliances. I do remember we tried. I do remember we tried with the cement sector. So we are talking about the hard-to-abate sector because, for instance, the gasification of waste, the residue in the gasification of waste is something we have not yet valorized in our business model but can be further valorized by using it in the construction industry, which is cross-selling. But getting specifically to the needs of the steel and cement business, in their case, the energy transition is a further cost. So the real trick to ignite initiatives will be the point in which the fine you have to pay to emit CO2 is higher than the further cost you need to sustain to reduce your CO2 emissions. We are talking with a lot of players in the sector. We are partnering also with infrastructure funds, which in turn are talking to these sectors. I will say that right now, the core of our activity is still with oil and gas and fertilizer companies. And let me add to this municipalities because whenever we talk about waste, you must have those who manage waste as a partner. So the answer is no immediate strategic partnerships because it's a relatively different formula from what we develop with the oil and gas companies, for instance. In their case, it's core business. In the case of steel and cement producer, it's solving a problem.
Alessandro Bernini
executiveI don't want to leave you alone. I would like just to integrate a little bit, in particular, as far as your first question is concerned, because we are dealing just in these days and that opportunity which could become a real, real big opportunity, in particular in the sustainable aviation fuel space as well as low carbon methanol. Of course, the acquisition of GasConTec has provided us with an important boost for these specific products. And just to reconfirm once again what has been already anticipated by Fabio, please consider that, for example, a country like Kazakhstan, who knows, could humble about Kazakhstan to want to be a player in the sustainable aviation fuel? Yes, it is. They have created a specific dedicated vehicle, which is called KazMunayGas-Aero, which is specifically engaging and developing a sustainable aviation fuel project in their country starting not, of course, from natural resources but starting from vegetal bioproduct, it's a waste bio, and they wanted to become the most important producers in that part of the world. They have identified our group, which could become a partner with them. We are presently working together in order, in particular, to teach them what could be the best of technology to be applied considering the type of feedstock that they have available. So very often, the possibility to place in the market your technological solution depends a lot on how the client is already aware about the technological proposition. So we have to pay a lot of effort in primarily to teach them what could be the best solution. And then of course, we are ready to deliver them. And we are doing, for example, in Kazakhstan because it's one of the last situations which we are managing so far. So for sure, ammonia, low carbon methanol, sustainable aviation fuels, these are the pillars of our strategy. We have considered these products in preparing our short-, medium- and long-term estimates, and this is the world. So green will come a little bit later. Now blue, also carbon capture in their various forms, starting, for example, the project Hail and Ghasha is one of the best examples, but also the project that we are doing in Abu Dhabi on behalf of TA'ZIZ or the project that we are completing in the United States, the ammonia synloop, without emission of CO2. So these are just a few examples. But the commercial pipeline, which is due to maintain and confirm the possibility of the additional growth that we are expecting in 2025 is up there. So for sure, of course, compared to the E&C business whereby the industrial cycle is much longer, 3, 4, 5 years depending on the size project, for these type of projects or type of business, you have to renew your portfolio in the short term. But the opportunities are there, a lot of opportunities. And as you have correctly stated, the project, a small project, we have been awarded, particularly in the second part of the year, is just the first move. Then we are expected to move in the second step much bigger, much important and, of course, more important from an economic standpoint.
Marco Cristofori
analystMarco Cristofori from Intesa Sanpaolo. Your development in NextChem seems high, 20%, 30%. So I wonder if you can give us an idea of the R&D invested in this development. And also on CapEx, it seems that you are -- let's say, the CapEx reported in September are still below the target, the official target. So is there some postponement? And in the future, to support this growth in NextChem, what are you expecting as CapEx? And finally, if you are going to give a reporting of different sectors within NextChem in the future maybe.
Fabio Fritelli
executiveBlurred. Blurred reporting.
Alessandro Bernini
executiveIn terms of CapEx, as you heard stated, apparently, we are a little bit late compared to our guidance, but we are not so late because, at the end of the day, within the end of September, we have already invested this year something close to EUR 75 million. So in particular, when small M&A transactions are involved, of course, the timing does not depend only to you but it depends also on the negotiations. What is important to say, to me, is that we have already identified specific opportunities coupled with our plan, with our strategy. We are presently negotiating with the counterparts, and it is reasonable to expect, considering the situation which have been achieved so far, that at least 1 or 2 will be concluded, even if not within the end of the year, for sure, in the first week of 2025. So for sure, at the next appointment of the Capital Markets Day, they will be onboard. So this, as far as the external, they are not organic investments. Of course, on top of that, we have our internal research and development projects. We have, in particular, in revising our organization, a specifically dedicated, very important part of the organization of NextChem is involving the development of new technologies or in the enhancement of technologies, which are already onboard. So the combination of the organic investments plus what we expected to conclude within the end of the year, early 2025, confirms that our estimate in terms of CapEx allocation to this year is appropriate. We will be live.
Fabio Fritelli
executiveAnd as to the reporting on the business lines, let's say that the reorganization is very much driven by commercial reasons, the ability to have people moving with the same type of clients. We will see. Let's give you the chance. It started as an internal reorganization. So that's the way it is at this point in time.
Francesco Sala
analystFrancesco Sala, Banca Akros, a couple of questions. The first one is the commercial pipeline in Europe. It seems Europe is developing slower than we thought. So I wonder what you think should happen for Europe to see a pickup in new orders or if it's just a matter of time. And the second question is supply chains. Obviously, there have been problems for supply chains since the tensions in the Middle East. So I wonder whether this has been an issue for you, and if yes, how do you address it?
Alessandro Bernini
executiveSo let me start with the second one, Francesco. I truly believe that, as far as the supply chain is concerned, you are talking about the second business line, the business unit, so the E&C business because, as far as STS, presently, apart from the proprietary equipment, we don't need to [ procure ] to the supply chain. Definitively, it depends a lot. Of course, most of the countries where we have our projects is in the Middle East. First of all, one basic requirement, which is imposed by the client, is to cope with their expectation in terms of in-country value or in-Kingdom value added, in case of Saudi Arabia. It means that you are forced to [ procure ] as much as possible to the local supply chain primarily, of course, because very often, the procurement portion, which must be acquired locally, range between 50% to 60%. And of course, there is the residual portion, which normally is acquired abroad. But being conscious that there is an issue in terms of logistics, in terms of transportation because, for sure, today, moving materials and equipment from Europe to Middle East, with the problems of the Suez channel, is an issue more than in terms of cost, in terms of timing and in terms of availability of carriers, which manage your materials. So for this reason, clients located in that part of the world has opened their vendor list to suppliers and vendors, which are located in the Eastern part of the world, China primarily, Korea, whereby alternative suppliers to the traditional European or Western-based suppliers are based. So with these actions, which has been agreed, of course, with the clients, now I have to say that the problem exists, of course but it's extremely limited because of this type of solution. So the combination of local content plus vendors, which are based in the Eastern part of the world accepted by the client, has extremely limited the problem of the supply chain, which for sure, I repeat, with the closing of the Suez channel, should have emphasized this problem. But for the time being, the reason it is not, at least for our project, it is not a great issue. Then of course, for the other projects which are located in the northern part of Africa, so in the Mediterranean Sea, of course, it is not an issue because all of them can be served easily by the traditional supply chain based in Europe or in other parts of the world.
Fabio Fritelli
executiveAnd as for Europe, let me take Europe, and then I'll get to you. I would say Europe is a place that needs to find a proper way to transition. We have started with the right or the wrong foot depending on how much you want to be pro or con against the energy transition. But the fact is that there will be a lot to do on waste management. We are still financing incinerators when there is a more sustainable way of managing the waste. So there will be a lot to do there. We are doing, we believe, a lot in Italy. And not only in Italy, as I was mentioning before, we are also applying this technology in the United States. We have some initiatives in the biofuel space, with Andrea, with biorefinery activities. So brownfield assets because building something from scratch in Europe is virtually impossible. Brownfield assets where you complement existing production of fuels or chemicals from fossil fuels with some bioproducts definitely. I have the personal view that Europe jump on the wagon of small-scale nuclear reactors but this is the personal view. In this sense, we have done an agreement with Newcleo where we will take care of the electrochemistry downstream of whatever nuclear developments they will do. But it's not an easy continent to operate and, at this point in time, it's not even so easy to understand. We all read the press. There's a lot of movement in these days on how to reapproach the energy transition. Forget about the stuff to electric, to engine combustion by 2035 because it's no longer realistic and the like. So it's a difficult continent to understand yet.
Roberto Ranieri
analystRoberto Ranieri from Stifel. I have three questions. The first question on technology. I strongly believe that technology will be an enabler for future revenues also for the current business. My question is that also other competitors are working on technology, so what could Maire give more than the others on the market? You have plenty of, I would say, interesting portfolio, even integrated in terms of products and processes. So it could be an advantage. I'm wondering if others are doing the same? My second question is on the scale. At the moment, my perception is that it some of the technologies are at the pilot plan to scale. So I'm wondering if I'm mistaken, I'm wrong, and if this technology are ready to the market. If not, which of the technologies? Well, ammonia, I would say. Usual business, I would say. Also other technologies could be ready to the market. So if you can give us an idea what the technologies could be very effected immediately? My last question is on one of these technologies, which is we were talking about before, is SAF biofuel, which is expanding. Demand is increasing. So what are your closest opportunities in terms of business? Andrea, you mentioned Kazakhstan, which is interesting. They're working also in Italy. So I'm wondering if this will provide Maire with a backlog increase in the, let's say, a couple of years?
Alessandro Bernini
executiveSo about the competition, Roberto, since I know that you know very well the arena, the technology space, I truly believe that you know very well that there are major other players which retain so wide range of technologies as we do. There are, for sure, other technology providers, but most of them are concentrated in one specific technology. And they do not retain waste the technology that we retain. So for sure, you are right, there are some peers which are growing. But before being in a situation which could be dangerous for our growth, they have to do a lot. Of course, in the meantime, we have not our technological portfolio development, we are continuing in investing, investing with the external line and internal line. So I truly believe that, first of all, apart from what the others are doing, it is more interesting to concentrate on what we are doing, how we are growing our technological proposition. And this is the journey that we have tried to convey to you today, starting from what we have already onboard and what we can have in the short term. So of course, we have to compete with others, but it is not the traditional market when talking about technologies, a completely different state, a completely different situation. So now I repeat, I truly believe that with the investments that we are doing and starting from a situation whereby we retain -- and please do not forget that a lot of companies are talking about hydrogen, but we are in the hydrogen space since 50 years, so from 50 years. So there are no major other players who will retain the same type of knowledge as we do, for example, in the hydrogen and all the derivatives of the hydrogen. Plus, of course, our tradition in the chemicals, it is extremely helpful also in developing different type processes in order to retail, produce the same type of projects at the end. So putting everything together, of course, the competition is there, but we are well prepared, of course, to face and to manage the competition. Then one of the elements, which is extremely important, as you have mentioned, is to demonstrate the validity of our technological proposition and you can demonstrate or because the client has chosen your technological proposition. So the pilot plant is a plant which is sanctioned by a client or you decide to build your pilot plant, as we are doing. But we are not talking about a small pilot plant, which doesn't demonstrate that it is able to deliver what is expected in the commercial scale, if we engage ourselves and invested for a pilot plant, it is a quasi-commercial plant. So of course, the relating investment is part of the investment plan that we have already forecasted in our 10 years' plan. A portion relates precisely to this type of final plant. A couple of them are presently under execution. One relates to the chemical recycling for the PMMA and is due to be completed more in 1 year's time, 1.5 years, more or less. Then as soon as it will be ready, it will have a commercial scale and it will be possible to have even a commercial cycle, producing cash flow and producing earnings. And another is presently under execution and will be then transferred into technological park, which will be established in Rome, whereby most of our prior plants will be located. Of course, since we would like to have our clients investing in our novel technologies, we are supporting also this type of proposition by partnering with them wherever we deem appropriate. So we do not exclude that the first of a kind of one of our technologies could be a project sanctioned by our clients with our participation in terms of investments. And of course, we are well prepared to do it. So in terms of the latest one with SAF, if I well remember, SAF, apart from Kazakhstan, which is a prospect, serious prospect, extremely interesting prospect, but of course, SAF, it is a commodity. It is a fewer, which can be produced, for example, in the Marghera refinery and the Livorno refinery as well. But more than that, you know that our Waste-to-X technology can deliver circular fuels, including as well sustainable aviation fuel, moving from ethanol to alcohol and alcohol to jet fuel. So all of them, I repeat, since there is a huge shortage of this fuel in the world and is due to remain, maintain this shortage position still for long, comparing the market demand compared to the expected production which is due to carbonate over the next 5 to 10 years, which is the result? The result is that the price for this commodity, you can identify whatever you want in your financial models, because the airlines are ready, well-prepared to recognize even very high prices because, of course, high prices spread over a number of air tickets doesn't, of course, modify too much their competitivity. Whilst, of course, using sustainable aviation fuel will provide an important boost to their economic cost reputation. So with the support of the market, you have just to choose the regions whereby this type of investment will be done. For sure, if we have to forecast an investment in circular fuels or biofuels, for sure, SAF sustainable aviation fuel is the preferred one because it is the type investment, which is able to deliver for the investment the highest return. So it is not a matter of a project today or tomorrow, if we look at the stream of opportunities which are part of commercial pipeline, we have a very long lease in a variety of geographical areas starting from Europe, moving to Middle East, to Far East, India as well. And even the Caspian area, which is the latest one.
Emanuele Negri
analystIt's Emanuele Negri from Mediobanca. I have a couple of questions. The first one is on the geographical breakdown of your commercial pipeline within the 3 business units you presented today within NextChem. And the second one is a follow up on investments. Within your last Capital Markets Day, you mentioned potential equity investment beyond traditional M&A. Do you have any update on this kind of investment?
Fabio Fritelli
executiveLet me take the first one and then you have partly answered it already, the second one. But as for the first one, I would say that we have more or less a relatively widespread footprint on all the 3 sectors. There's no specific sector where we are more geographically concentrated than the other. Let me start from the circular economy. We started clearly where we know the environment. So we have started in Italy a few years ago. We have expanded to Europe, and an opportunity in the United States came out. We are scouting the regions of the world where you have the vast majority of municipal solid waste. So India could very well be a very promising future market. The point is that the right conditions must apply. So in terms of geographic footprint of that business line, I would say, primarily Europe and the United States, but also emerging economies might well come through. If I look at what we the energy vector, so fuels and whatever comes out of hydrogen with Andrea Vena, definitely, the United States because it's the place where a lot of combinations will go through, but also Europe, no doubt. And let's not forget the Gulf region, which is, by far, the most relevant business area for the E&C business, but it's proving extremely, extremely interesting also for a sustainable proposition. So we do expect in the short term a number opportunities with Mohammed in that part of the world. And then the third one is fertilizers. Fertilizers, we're starting from a world leadership with approximately 60% market share. So I wouldn't say what was the investment, everyone. Okay. And the second question was on the M&A plan.
Alessandro Bernini
executiveM&A, of course, we are conscious that we have a gap in our technological portfolio, which we would like to get compared to our expectation in terms of growth for the incoming years. So we want to close this gap as soon as possible, which are the most important targets, which now we are analyzing. First of all, fertilizer specialties. There is a developer, which has developed a solution, which could be of our interest. And of course, biofuels is another phase, whereby we have already onboard a sector of technological proposition but we would like to integrate with an additional technological proposition, which comes from U.S. So presently, we are working predominantly on these two opportunities, which I truly hope to be in a position be more clear about who are those opportunities and what we expect to get from them quite soon.
Paolo Citi
analystPaolo Citi, Intermonte. I'd like to discuss with you regarding your investment opportunities with Eni in particular. Because today, the company announced a EUR 2 billion plan for restructuring Versalis. You have been working with Eni on several projects on the CCS for Ravenna, on the Livorno refinery, if I'm correct. So my question is, do you think you have important competitive advantages under the technology point of view compared to players in supporting Eni in this investment plan? And what could be the main competitors?
Alessandro Bernini
executiveEni is a strange beast. But we don't have a competitive advantage. We have a competitive advantage from a technological standpoint. And it is not -- it is confirmed that I was saying it is not the case. It is confirmed by just looking at the recent investment, whereby Eni has converted its refining unit into biorefineries. Our group, in particular, the technologies, which are retained by KT Tech has been identified to be the best one in order to serve the conversion from refinery, working with natural resources into biorefineries. And on top of the already awarded projects which are presently under execution, both from a technological space as well as from E&C point of view, we expect also to receive an additional project quite soon for an additional investment, which Eni, in association with another international operator, is going to sanction very sure. So of course, on top of that, you know that from an E&C space, we have been awarded the projects in the gas field in Zohr in Egypt. And definitively, it's a decision taken by ADNOC but, at the end of the day also Hail and Ghasha has been awarded when Eni retained, at that time, a much higher stake in the consortium. And Eni had a technological role in the technological solution and the technical solution, consequently in identifying the best partner for the investment. So I truly believe that at the end of the day, of course, you have to play also from a competitive standpoint and from an economic standpoint, but primarily, Eni is used to prefer primarily the best technological proposition and then must be accompanied also by the money because, of course, they pay a lot to also to the money. But primarily, you have to satisfy their requirements from a technological standpoint. And if they have chosen us almost for the 90% of their projects in particular, not in the upstream, but in the downstream space, including the recent awarded project from Versalis, it is a practical confirmation that what I am saying is the reality.
Silvia Guidi
executiveSo I think we have one last question from the chat. The question is from Kevin Roger from Kepler Cheuvreux. We shared that we are expecting EUR 6 billion of orders in the short term. Does it mean by year-end?
Alessandro Bernini
executiveYear-end. Of course, it is a reasonable question because we have stated before we expect to get additional EUR 6 billion project. But we have also mentioned that since ultimately, the decision pertains is in the hands of the clients. Based on the time table, which the client has identified and has set up, it is expected that they will take the final investment decision for those projects that we are targeting within the end of the year. But considering what we have experienced so far, in particular, during 2024, it could be reasonable that at least some or one of them could postpone the decision in the first weeks of 2025. So let me say that it will be more probable, it will be likely that the EUR 6 billion must be targeted within the next appointment, so within the end of January, February '25. Of course, some of them will be for sure already awarded within the end of the year. But if everything goes in the right direction, as it is going so far, it is reasonable to expect that within the end of the year, first weeks of 2025, that this famous EUR 6 billion be part of our backlog.
Silvia Guidi
executiveSo I think we replied to all the questions. So thank you very much for joining us. You are all invited to our Capital Markets Day.
Alessandro Bernini
executiveSo of course, I repeat the invitation. I expect each and every one of you. Of course, if you want join us earlier, of course, I will be very glad. But of course, the next important appointment for our group is the Capital Markets Day, which we have not yet identified the precise date, but we are used, of course, to release by the end of February, early March 2025. So welcome to you already now. I, of course, transfer to you already my warm welcome already today, and I expect it to you, including the drink afterward, also in March of '25.
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