Maisons du Monde S.A. (ZMM.F) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Maisons du Monde First Half 2022 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] During this conference call, statements could be made that constitute forward-looking statements based on management's current expectations and beliefs and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the future results expressed, forecast or implied by such forward-looking statements. All listeners are reminded to read the forward-looking disclaimer on Slide 2. For a more complete list and description of such risks and uncertainties, please refer to Maisons du Monde filings with the French Autorite des marches financiers. I'd now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Chris Welton.

Thank you. Hi. Good morning to all of you, and thank you very much for joining this call to present Maisons du Monde's half year 2022 results. My name is Chris Welton, as you just heard, and I'm with Investor Relations. I'm with our CEO, Julie Walbaum; and also our CFO, Regis Massuyeau, who will be making today's presentation. That will be followed by a Q&A session. You have no doubt seen the press release we issued this morning. The conference call slides can be downloaded from and viewed on our website. This call is also being webcast, and a replay will be available on our website later today. All listeners are reminded to read the forward-looking disclaimer on Slide 2. I will now turn the call over to Julie Walbaum.

Thank you, Chris. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for attending the call this morning. Our agenda for today is on Slide 3. I will begin traditionally with an overview of the key highlights of the first half. Regis will then take you through our numbers, after which I will return to discuss our priorities and outlook before opening the floor to your questions. So, let's begin on Slide 5 with our first half business and strategic highlights. Well, as you all know, we continue to operate in a very challenging environment, marked by soaring inflation in Europe, a sharp decrease in consumer confidence, continued supply chain disruption and geopolitical uncertainty. As a reminder, these trends were emerging at the end of the first quarter, and April activity was broadly in line with our expectations. But then we saw a further sudden deterioration in May with a sharp drop in traffic as consumers across Europe reacted to the prospect of a long conflict in Ukraine and high and lasting inflation. And this has what led us to adjust our full year guidance on May 26. Now, H1 numbers are in line with these updated objectives and reflect both the challenging environment and a very strong comparable base as we were cycling over first half last year that had benefited from the post-COVID reopening with H1 '21 sales rising 35% versus H1 '20. First half GMV stood at EUR 643 million, which is down 2.3% year-on-year, with sales standing at EUR 604 million, that is minus 4.8% versus H1 last year. Stepping back to take a longer-term perspective, however, sales were up 11% versus the first half of 2019, that is prior to the pandemic, attesting to the attractiveness of our brand and the successful development of our omnichannel model. EBIT was EUR 28 million at a margin of 4.7%. The decrease reflects operating deleverage from lower sales, as well as cost inflation on freight, raw materials and energy, notably. Free cash flow was minus EUR 7 million in the half, and this reflected lower EBITDA, the significant investment in inventory rebuild that impacted working capital, as well as the additional CapEx to complete the opening of our second distribution center in Northern France. And I'm pleased to say that this new DC began operating in early July on schedule and in line with planned costs despite here again rising inflation. We expect second half free cash flow to be back in positive territory in line with our full year objective. The second key highlight I'd like to focus on is that, in the face of this one-of-a-kind volatile and disrupted environment, we have implemented a strong revenue management, cost containment and CapEx prioritization plan to set course our 2022 updated [ objective ]. We have launched extra efficiency programs in sourcing and logistics for about EUR 5 million to protect our full year gross margin at about 63%. And this plan also allows us to free up some resources for additional markdown activity in the second half to boost sales and limit excess inventory in the context of continuing soft consumption. We will also mitigate cost inflation through a EUR 20 million SG&A cost containment plan. In addition to that, we will reinforce our CapEx prioritization approach, focusing on strategic projects, and we will optimize our working capital. The final highlight of today's communication is that, we are launching a new share buyback plan for up to 10% of our share capital. In this, we have the firm conviction that the current market value is not an accurate reflection of the business value creation and cash generation potential. Considering our cash use options, in the near future, we believe this opportunistic share buyback is the best allocation in the long-term interest of all our shareholders. Let me give you a bit more granularity on the philosophy guiding the action plan on the next slide, and then Regis will detail the financial aspects of the action plan, as well as the share buyback shortly. Slide 6 presents the main levers we will be actioning in order to protect our profit and cash, while at the same time, continuing to fuel short- and loan-term growth. The key was to achieve this are: agility, discipline and selectivity. Agility first, we are operating in a highly inflationary context, and we need to be adaptable to boost top line and contain gross margin erosion. That requires a combination of an additional set of targeted promotional activities to boost demand and proactively manage the excess inventory risk; second, further sourcing optimization, including supplier renegotiations and sourcing mix optimization; and finally, selective price uplift as we release our new collections in H2 after our full year pricing program. Now, just a word on promotions. We do continue to believe in a low markdown model. This is Maisons du Monde. The strength of our brand and collections allow us to have a very small percentage of sales under discount from 5% to 8% of sales over the last 4 to 5 years. Just like in many other areas, this range is designed to [ inner mold ] group to strictly adapt to the context and match the best allocation of our resources, while [ staring ] a very reasonable levels compared to market. As a reminder, in 2019, as we needed to make space in our stores to start implementing our enhanced collections resulting from our vast decoration collection revamping program, 8% of our sales were discounted then, that is 2 percentage points higher than the previous year. In 2020, we started to lower that rate going down to 7%. And in 2021, as demand for the category was high and product availability low, we lowered that discount level further down to about 5%, with obviously a positive impact on gross margin last year. Markdown management does need to be handled with care. It is usually seen as the Eve's temptation, sort of a one way only negative spiral. Well, in our case, it is not because here also, we are agile, and we know when and how to scale back. This clearly shows the strength of our brand and differentiated offering. Now, today, we want to stimulate demand, which is soft and is likely to go softer after summer. We also want to proactively manage our inventories, especially in decoration items to make sure we limit the excess inventory risk, and we optimize our cash. Therefore, we have decided to add about 2 percentage points of markdown activity this year versus last year. That is 2 to 3 points for the second half. Discount itself in 2022 should, therefore, approach 2019 levels in absolute value and still be lower in percentage rate. This extra markdown envelope should support sales in the H2, while we anticipate consumers to be particularly cautious on discretionary spending and sensitive to promotions when [ other standing ] such as energy is expected to rise. This extra investment is captured in the gross margin indication we gave for the full year. That is about 63%. Second key word is discipline. We need to deliver further cost efficiencies in logistics and transportation to offset the operating deleverage that results from lower volumes and the continuing cost inflation we are facing. In addition, we are sharply reducing discretionary spending across the inside Group. And finally, selectivity. We need to strike the right balance between maintaining CapEx on our key strategic projects such as the ramp-up of our new DC and further IT investments to support our online push, including the deployment of our marketplace, while deferring CapEx on the lower priority projects, and this translates in a total action plan of EUR 25 million that Regis will detail further in his section. On Slide 7, we look at how we continue to strengthen our direct-to-consumer love brand in the first half through creativity, inspiration and engagement. First, creativity. Our collaboration with designer Lisa Gachet, with collection we launched in May, was a huge success. On opening day, the 28 products flew off the shelves and 1/3 was sold out by the end of the day. And after 3 weeks, 3/4 of inventory was already sold out. Nearly 2.5 million people were reached on social media through this collab. And with the [indiscernible], we were able to make a sizable donation to En avant toute(s), a nonprofit organization that fights against gender inequality and violence against women. And as a proof point of our commitment to desirable and durable collections is that, we have further pushed how Good is Beautiful offering with the launch of our new Kids catalog. Now, 50% of our products are Good is Beautiful label. We have also grown our B2B offer to reach more than 400 products, of which 35% already are Good is Beautiful certified. Our B2B products were used to equip the VIP lounge, as well as [indiscernible] bedroom created for the occasion at the -- in July, triggering trust and influence enthusiasm. We also recently signed several major contracts, including one to a [indiscernible]. Inspiration comes through a strengthened presence on social media. The number of our followers on Instagram rose 6% year-on-year to reach about 5.5 million people. And it also comes through interior decoration advice with Rhinov's customer base increased by another 22% this first half to exceed 12,000 people. As for engagement, Maisons du Monde continued to passionately interact with its communities, in line with our mission to be the most desirable and sustainable home and living brand in Europe. This quarter, we started an internal class called Good for Women to raise awareness and gender equality and mobilize people within our organization around actions to promote women's right. Our increased commitment to help the Group has started to be recognized and valued by consumers. Sign of the times, Maisons du Monde was ranked among the top 5 love brands globally by Talkwalker and Hootsuite based on customer feedback from over 2 billion conversation on social media covering more than 1,500 brands across 9 consumer categories. Slide 8 further details our actions on the ESG front. On the E part, we continue to develop our sustainable product offering with 25% of our autumn/winter collections now is Good is Beautiful label. That is 5 points more compared to the same collections last year. We also further progressed on environmental performance and secular economy. 98% of all our stores are powered by renewable electricity and the number of products that are repaired or recommissioned in our repair center grew by 35% year-on-year. Finally, the Group chose to digitize its inspiring product catalog for the second half of the year. On the S part, in light of the sharp rise in inflation, we have given all our employees in Europe, an exceptional EUR 500 bonus to support their purchasing power. We also created the first 12 Good is beautiful living spaces for people in need in partnership with local nonprofit atomization. Finally, on the G part, we have created a dedicated CSR committee at Board level, headed by our new board member, Alexandra Palt, Chief Corporate Responsibility Officer and Executive Vice President of L'Oreal Foundation at L'Oreal. The creation of this committee shows the Group's strong commitment to sustainability. The mandation of that committee is to assist the Board in matters of social and environmental responsibility and to support our transformation towards a low-carbon business model with reduced environmental impact and a strong positive social and societal approach. Our ESG efforts are recognized by leading rating agencies, such as MSCI, Sustainalytics or Vigeo Eiris, all of which ranked us among the leading retailers. And finally, we completed our ESG impact share buyback program in March and donated EUR 0.5 million to the Maisons du Monde Endowment Fund, as well as to NPO Emmaus in France. We have also renewed a EUR 250 million banking facility using a sustainability-linked mechanism. Any interest [ cost ] realized will be donated to the MDM Foundation. Now, let's look in greater detail on our first half business highlights, starting on Slide 9 with a resilient performance of our omnichannel model, which is again proving its relevance amid a complex global environment. In the first half, our active customer base was broadly in line with that of last year and up 15% versus H1 '19. The number of omnichannel customers grew by double digits, up 14% versus H1 last year and 66% versus H1 '19. Online GMV stood at EUR 237 million, down 17%, while online sales went down 25%, reflecting the very high comparable base. Indeed, with stores closed 30% of the time on average in H1 last year, online GMV and sales had grown by 55% and 44%, respectively, in the same semester last year. However, compared to H1 '19, online GMV this half was up 61% and online net sales, up 34%, showing strong momentum. Tableware and garden categories were the main highlights of online sales in the first half. Store sales grew by 9% versus H1 '21 despite a few new openings, and they are also up by 3% versus H1 '19. Sales benefited from a favorable base effect as stores were closed part of the time during that same period in '21. Performance was particularly robust in France, where store sales were up 8% despite a net reduction of 8 stores. However, it is important to highlight, as I mentioned earlier, that we saw a very sharp drop in traffic since mid-May, as a favorable COVID-linked comparable base [ stated ] and the global environment took a turn for the worse. Regis will discuss that in greater detail. On Slide 10, we zoom on our [ current ] marketplace, which continues to see strong momentum. Marketplace GMV reached EUR 49 million in H1 '22, up 60% year-on-year, with an acceleration in Q2 versus Q1, as shown on the graph on the slide. This very solid growth was mostly driven by France, which was up 44% year-on-year. Marketplace GMV represented as much as 40% of French online GMV in the second quarter, driven by an increase in sellers from 260 to 400. The marketplace now offers from 150,000 SKUs, and the number of brands has increased by 80% over the last 12 months. As part of our omnichannel strategy and the digitalization of our model, the marketplace is now fully deployed in French stores and GMV through June stood at around EUR 5 million, [ for that top-up ]. At the end of March, in line with our ramp-up strategy, we successfully launched our online marketplace in a second market, which is Spain, and the first results are very positive. The marketplace already accounts for over 30% of Spanish online GMV after only 3 months. It got 160 vendors, about 300 brands and some 60,000 SKUs already [indiscernible]. The success of our marketplace in Spain proves our ability to export the model. To leverage this opportunity, we are accelerating the opening of our marketplace operations in the third country. We are now confident that we will open Italy by the fourth quarter this year. The continued success of our selective and omnichannel marketplace demonstrates the relevance of our online strategy and our ability to maintain our competitive edge. On Slide 11, let's have a look at our store network. In today's and certain business environment, we have taken a highly disciplined and selective approach through the management of our store network with fewer openings and on some measures undertaken to speed up the closure of unprofitable stores. At the end of H1, Maisons du Monde's network stood at 350 stores, that is 2 fewer than the end of H1 '21 and 7 fewer than the end of last year. Over the course of this year's first half, we opened 2 new stores, 1 in France and 1 in Spain. During the same period, the Group closed 6 stores in France, 2 in Belgium and 1 in Italy, and this is in line with our usual seasonality at the first half of the year, usually it is more purchase while openings are traditionally back-end loaded. We have guided on 0 to 5 net opening this year. And as per our decisions mentioned above, it is safe to now assume that we will be broadly flat in the full year. We keep seeing stores as a key strategic asset and will continue to selectively expand over time. But in the current context, we believe it is critical to act with IT discipline and caution and be very attentive to the evolution of our category. With this, let me now hand over to Regis to detail on numbers.

Thank you, Julie, and good morning to everyone. Happy to be with you again this morning to give you more color on our H1 performance and action plans that Julie mentioned. I will start on Slide 13 with our sales bridge. Our first half sales stood at EUR 604 million. This is down 4.8% versus the same period last year and largely reflects the very challenging comparable base we faced as H1 sales in 2021 has grown by 35% over 2020, which was a year with activity was negatively impacted by store closures during lockdown. But if we compare to the pre-pandemic period in 2019, you see that we experienced solid double-digit growth of 11% after Q1 at plus 15%. So we have clearly grown even during the difficult period the world has gone through since 2020. If we look at the building blocks of our sales evolution, you see that like-for-like sales were down 7% or EUR 42.4 million, partly offset by a positive EUR 12 million-ish contribution from new stores, mostly from 2021 openings, as Julie has explained, that we have slowed the pace of opening this year. Our H1 performance is in line with the updated guidance we provided on May 26 and the qualitative current business dynamics that we pointed to at the time. On next slide, we look at the sales performance in greater granularity by breaking it down by quarter to allow you to visualize the sequence of our performance as COVID created quite a complex reading on a year-on-year basis. It shows as well the sudden drop in the middle of Q2, that Julie mentioned, which has blessed to adjust our guidance at the end of May. I will provide more color on that in a little bit. As you see on the graph, sales in the first quarter at EUR 313 million were resilient, down just 1.3% versus last year and up 15% versus 2019. Q2 saw a much sharper drop of 8.3% and sales fell to about EUR 291 million. It's important to break this down even further month-by-month to allow you grasp the sudden reversal of trend we faced that let us to adapt our guidance and act swiftly to implement an action plan to respond to the new environment we find ourselves in. Indeed, April was a solid month, broadly in line with expectation. But in the first half of May, with an unexpected and steep decline in traffic at consumer confidence, the sentiment derailed further in the face of inflation forecast updates, notably. This resulted in a sharp acceleration of the downward trade in sales with May sales down 13% and June 18%. As we said, April traffic was down around minus 20% in stores versus the comparable reference pre-COVID-19 and then dropped to circa minus 13%, hitting minus 14% on certain days. The trend leading up to the sales season in June stayed in the minus 25% range. Online traffic, at the same time, to April was down around minus 15% versus last year and then decreased to minus 20% to 25% in May. In June, we changed our marketing tactics and adapted marketing spend return on investment, so to manage to restore traffic growth. Slide 15 shows you our traditional breakdown of sales by category, channel and geography. Here too, what you see is a tale of 2 perspectives. The year-on-year evolution is challenging. But compared to the pre-pandemic period, we have posted growth across the board. I will start with category. Decoration sales remained broadly stable despite a very high comparable base as H1 '21 was up by 40% year-on-year and also despite a strong decrease in like-for-like store traffic [ however may endured ]. This reflects the quality and attractiveness of our collections and back to the description of Julie. Furniture sales decreased 9%. This reflects supply chain disruption that led to limited availability in certain product families, including bestsellers product, lockdown in China in Q2 and continuing freight disruptions added to the supply chain challenge. However, our team's effort to rebuild the inventories led to an improving level of furniture availability. At the end of June, immediate availability reached 60% for furniture, the highest level since June 2020, ahead of our agenda. We forecast now to be around 70% at the end of Q3 with an ability to fulfill orders closer to normal. Turning to channels. As Julie said, we saw post-COVID rebalancing, with store sales up 9%, driven by a favorable base effect considering last year's COVID closure and an increase in traffic from January through April before the previously described shortfall in May. Online sales were down 25% versus '21, mainly reflecting the challenging comparable base, but also suboptimal also improving inventory level impacting the conversion rate. Consequently, both online traffic and the conversion rates were below their '21 levels, down 13% and 16%, respectively. Compared to 2019, store sales are up 3% and online sales are up 34%, reflecting the ramp-up of our omnichannel strategy and a more digitalized model. Finally, by geography. Sales in France, which represents slightly more than half of the total, were down 6% versus '21, while international sales were down 4%. If we look at GMV terms, sales in France were down only 2%, while international sales decreased by 3%. The difference between sales and GMV reflects the growing importance of the marketplace in our gross revenue generation. Sales in the 2 largest countries outside France, Italy and Spain, were up 10% and 1%, respectively. Finally, if we compare to 2019, sales were up 2% in France, against plus in 11% in GMV and 24% in the rest of Europe. Let's move to profitability and look on Slide 16 at EBIT, which stood on this semester at EUR 28 million, down from EUR 48 million in the corresponding period last year. Margin at 4.7% is down 284 basis points. The bridge on the slide shows you the different building blocks. So let's navigate through it and start with gross margin that stand at 64%, a decrease of roughly 150 bps versus last year, but stable versus 2019 if we do exclude Modani. The main factor of erosion is without surprise the strong cost inflation, which impacted H1 by around 400 bps. This was driven by rising inflation of raw materials and energy, as well as the cost per container up fivefold compared to 2019 pre-COVID period. It's important to note that these headwinds are not fully reflected in our full -- in our first half numbers. We will see more to come in H2. To limit the impact of these headwinds on gross margin, we have been implementing operating efficiencies, as well as selective price increases. There is also a positive impact coming from the marketplace. All of this factor had a combined positive effect in H1 of 250 bps on the period. With a 64% level of gross margin in H1, we are fully on track with the objective to be around 63% for the full year. Moving to the next block. Logistic costs were lower than last year, decreasing by 8% or 57 basis points as a percentage of net sales. This is a result of enhanced efficiencies in warehouse operations, as well as a favorable mix on transportation costs as the drop in online sales means we did fewer deliveries. It includes some extra inflationary elements on energy, notably, that we will continue to monitor over H2. Store operating costs and central costs increased by 4% or EUR 6 million, mainly reflecting the fact that H1 of last year benefited from EUR 11 million of one-off unemployment subsidies and lease payment reduction linked to the COVID crisis. Direct costs, notably salaries, energy were also higher in H1. Cost mitigation plans that we have put in place will partly offset this extra spending. As Julie mentioned in our introduction, we implemented an action plan in May to contain cost and secure the delivery of our guidance. I will provide you more detail on this in the next slide, but I'd like to emphasize that this action plan has only a couple of million euro impact in June. The bulk of the effect is expected in H2 this year. To conclude on the review of our H1 financial metrics, on the following slide, we look at free cash flow, which landed in H1 at a negative EUR 7 million from a positive EUR 51 million last year. This decrease reflects a number of factors: first, lower EBITDA of EUR 26 million; second, a EUR 37 million increase in the change of working capital requirement related to inventory rebuild in the context of supply chain tensions. As you see on the slide, our inventory rose to EUR 270 million from EUR 180 million in the same period last year as we strive to replenish and return to normalized levels, contributing to a rise in working cap as a percentage of net sales to 4.3%. And third, an extra EUR 8 million in CapEx related to the opening in July of the new distribution center in the north of France. CapEx as a percentage of net sales rose to 5.2% compared to 3.8% last year. Excluding the spending on the warehouse, CapEx would have been broadly stable year-on-year. Let me stress that the negative cash flow in the first half is marked by those phasing effects due to the cash out related to the second warehouse and the effect of inventory. I will comment shortly in more detail on the 3-year free cash flow agenda. On the next 3 slides, I like indeed to give you more detail on our action plan and on the 3 main components: gross margin, cost and CapEx. I will start with gross margin on Slide 18, which we expect to be around 63% on a full-year basis. Indeed, we anticipate that gross margin will remain under pressure in the coming months as we face exceptional costs and inflation on freight, raw materials, energy and other items always has a weaker euro. As mentioned, we expect the headwinds to impact H2 more than in H1 due to the procurement cycle. Moreover, to maintain our competitiveness and manage our level of inventory, we expect to allocate in H2 a higher budget than last year to markdown operation by 2 points on an annual basis versus last year. To achieve our aim of protecting gross margin, we are putting in place a new pricing policy over the summer with the second wave of price uplift, notably on furniture as the H2 collections are released, as well as active revenue management to guarantee price competitiveness. The second wave of pricing is around high single-digit in face value, so the overall year-on-year effect should be in the low-teens before markdown effect. We have also deployed additional operational optimization program in sourcing, logistics, transportation, including additional rounds of negotiation with major suppliers applicable as of 2022. These specific measures are equipped to bring EUR 5 million extra savings and secure our 2022 gross margin objective for the year. On next slide, to look at the second key component of our actual plan, which is cost containment and other savings. As Slide 19 shows, we are facing a significant decrease of about EUR 25 million to EUR 30 million in SG&A expenses this year from a combination of 3 factors. First, cost inflation for energy, wages and the carry-over of 2021 recruitments. Second, higher operating costs for stores as a consequence of an active management of our network, closing smaller stores and moving to bigger and better located ones. And third, the absence this year of COVID-related subsidies that we benefited last year. We were obviously anticipating some of these elements, but not all. Energy, wage inflation are turning out to be higher than expected. Also, lower sales impacted our ability to squeeze central cost as a percentage of sales. The overall year-on-year equation structured changed significantly, and we had to revisit the different levers to manage profitability. To mitigate the impact of this additional cost, we have launched an action plan totaling EUR 20 million. Main action will include a freeze on new hires and restrictions on replacement of existing jobs in case of departures, a company-wide reduction on spending covering such as areas [indiscernible] third-party fees. A rephasing in marketing spend as well as some adjustments taken an even stricter return on investment approach to guarantee that we have the most optimized investment deployment for online and in parallel, that we keep building the brand. These are strong measures that have been designed to allow us to maintain some investments in key programs to strengthen the organization, as well as to preserve the marketplace ramp-up whose results are fully in line with our objectives. Managing cost is deeply rooted in the organization, and we have proven our capacity to adapt to a tough environment. As we start preparing for 2023, we are confident that this set of measures is adapted to the current context and agenda. The third component of our action plan is protecting our cash through CapEx efficiency and optimization of working cap, as shown on Slide 20. As I mentioned earlier, free cash flow will swing into positive territory in the second half, and we confirm our full year guidance of free cash flow of EUR 10 million to EUR 30 million. We will achieve this by continuing to manage with discipline, the following 2 elements. First is CapEx. We have launched a program that aims to set clear priorities and focused investments on our key strategic projects, while deferring all [ non-expansion ] CapEx. This selective approach will direct CapEx to continuing investment in our second warehouse and IT, notably. CapEx this year should stand at about EUR 75 million. This is still higher than last year due to the second warehouse investment, about EUR 20 million this year. It also includes lower investment in stores as we have reduced our expansion plans in the past couple of years. In the current context, we are also considering additional store closures, some possibly earlier than expected, and we are also reviewing our store refurbishment program. We aim to make sure that every euro spent in stores at the time of uncertainty on consumption in general is well invested. Excluding the second warehouse, our 2022 CapEx would be comparable to 2019. Second topic is management of our working cap. We are implementing a number of optimization initiatives such as reopening negotiation with suppliers on payment terms, and we are very focused on replenishing our inventory while adjusting it to sales trend. Inventory management is a key point of focus for us in H2. Slide 21 summarizes our approach. As you have no doubt picked up from the preceding slide, we aim to find the right balance between medium-term growth and profitability while maintaining strict financial discipline. We see how relevant that logic is in the current context. On the profitability side, we have taken strong measures to contain costs and preserve cash in order to deliver our updated guidance. On the growth side, we are continuing to invest in strategic initiatives, notably the continued development of our marketplace and stepping up our logistics capacity. Our condition remains that Maisons du Monde is a growth story and that we need to do what's needed to restore healthy growth. At the same time, it is important today to be even more discipline in the way we allocate resources. All Maisons du Monde teams are focused on this today. I will conclude my part on Slide 22 with a look at the share buyback plan we are launching. This plan is aligned with our strong confidence in Maisons du Monde's fundamentals, strategic choices and business model, which we very much believe structurally create value and generate cash. In line with the authorization granted by our shareholders at our General Assembly on May 31, the Group intends to repurchase up to 10% of its outstanding shares or about 4 million shares at market price beginning on July 2019 -- 29, sorry, and all the repurchased shares will be canceled in order to reduce our share capital upon completion of the program. We, management, as well as the Board of Directors are fully convinced of the strategy of Maisons du Monde and our capacity to execute our agenda. This is also why Julie, myself, as well as all independent board members [ had ] or are going to buy shares personally. With that, I'm handing back to Julie for her concluding remarks.

Thank you, Regis. Before moving on to key commercial priorities in H2, we're present on Slide 24, 2 charts that are probably elements you all know but remain very important to appreciate the context in which we have been operating recently. On the left-hand side, we look at inflation that is at the peak and that we envisage to stay at a high level by the end of the year. On the right-hand side, the graph illustrates how weak consumer confidence level currently is. The index reached in July an all-time low in the Eurozone for the last 20 years. And in France, specifically, consumer confidence level went down to 82% in July. That is the worst level since the 2008, sorry, financial crisis. In this context, it is no surprise that consumers refrain on discretionary spending, especially on durable home equipment, and this explains the strong drop in demand we've seen from in May. In the first weeks of July, trends in stores have not changed materially from what we've been seeing over the end of Q2. Store traffic remains in line with the trend observed in June, that is down in the low-20s compared to 2019. Summer sale season temporarily supported the less negative trend, but that did not last. Online-wise, traffic did return to positive growth in June, thanks to a change in our online advertising tactics, the progressive replenishment of our inventories, and also the continued success of our marketplace. However, the conversion rate remains a challenge as deals and discounts seem to be increasingly important consumers to trigger purchase in the context of soft demand and increased prices throughout the category. I'm now on Slide 25, where we took a look at our H2 priorities where we have 4 main commercial priorities. First, we will continue to develop a brand and strengthen our customer experience, which are key to the consolidation of Maisons du Monde as [Technical Difficulty] consumer love brand. To launch at the end of Q2, our new financing solution [Technical Difficulty] is a clear lever to support sales in the context of constrained purchasing power. Second, as I already said, we will boost our sales plan with targeted promotions. Second, as I already said, we will boost our sales plan with targeted promotions to drive traffic in sales. Third, after the successful launch of a marketplace in Spain, we will start up operations in Italy by year-end. And fourth, we will continue to streamline and rationalize our store network and review the 2023 new opening plan in light of the current CapEx. Concerning operational priorities, as Regis mentioned previously, we will implement the action plans to safeguard of gross margin, contain our SG&A, and we will keep replenishing our financial inventories while actively managing the extra inventory risk and decoration items. And we will continue our sustainability and ESG journey to increase product flexibility and reach carbon neutrality on scopes 1 and 2. Now, on to our outlook for H2 and the full year on Slide 26. All the actions we've described this morning aim at securing the updated guidance we presented in May and as on Slide 26, I'm pleased to confirm that guidance today, despite the ongoing challenging environment. As regards to top line and now focusing on year-on-year evolution, there shouldn't be any more COVID bias in H2, we factor the following assumptions. First, traffic. Store traffic is expected in line with end of [Technical Difficulty] excluding summer sales, that is negative in the teens. Indeed, we aim for additional promotional activity to compensate for natural demand trends that may otherwise go further down in the context of purchasing power under pressure at the summer. Online traffic is expected to return to moderate growth in H2 versus a negative trend in H1 and especially in Q2. This would be the combined effect of further promotions, push on online marketing and marketplace deployment. In terms of conversion rate, we assume it would be broadly stable year-on-year in each channel. That is a sequential improvement over May, June of this year. This improvement should come from better financial inventory and higher promotion spending, compensating for sluggish demand. In terms of average market size, we assume a single-digit increase as a net effect of price uplift minus markdown. All in all, that would result in H2 down in the mid-single-digit range, split into store sales, which we assume would be down 10% to low-teens and online sales, which would be up 10% to low-teens. In terms of EBIT, we already described that gross margin will go materially down year-on-year, but cost containment plans are in place to secure our updated targets. Free cash flow-wise, our focus on inventory management, combined to our CapEx prioritization and other actions on working capital optimization led us to also confirm our targets. So to sum up, Maisons du Monde aims to deliver in the full year, a top line that will decrease in the mid-single-digit range year-on-year, an EBIT margin of 5% or above, free cash flow of EUR 10 million to EUR 30 million, a dividend payout ratio of 30% to 40% and the reduction of the Group's carbon intensity with CO2 neutrality for scopes 1 and 2. Let me conclude on Slide 27 with the 3 key takeaways of today's presentation. First, our first half performance is in line with the updated targets we set on May 26. The home category suffers from uncertain prospects in the current inflationary context that our strategic and business initiatives are progressing well. Second, we confirm the full year guidance we communicated on May 26 and are break fences through our action plan. And finally, we remain fully confident in Maisons du Monde's fundamentals and business model, and we are demonstrating that confidence by announcing the launch of a second opportunistic share buyback plan for up to 10% of our share capital while maintaining our payout policy for dividend. Thank you very much for your attention. And Regis and I are now happy to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] We will now take the first question. And the first question comes from the line of Clement Genelot from Bryan Garnier.

Yes. I will have questions on my side. The first one is on this supply chain. Can you give us an update on the [ re-status ] of its operation in Asia, despite a return of some [ markdowns ] in parts of [indiscernible] arena? The second point is whether on inventories globally. Do you see any signs of inventories excess among a competition whether it is on furniture or rather on the decoration? And third, do you have to fear, let's say, a revived promotional impact in H2? And the last one is rather on this buyback. Do you have any kind of share price threshold on which you will slow down or maybe even stop your share buyback program? I mean, is it [indiscernible] pressure or maybe even higher than that?

I'd take your first 2 questions, and Regis will answer the question on the share buyback. So first, to your question around some supply chain update. So it is true that the situation has improved in terms of global capacity as demand is unfortunately going down across the globe. It is still disruptive, meaning like the containers are not still always at the place where we would like them to be, but it is true that it is going better. And if we talk about Maisons du Monde, our furniture availability rate at the end of June was about 60%, which is to be compared to 45% at the end of Q1. And we are ahead of plan as a result of this improved situation. We initially forecasted to be around 50% of immediate availability at the end of Q2. So now, for the rest of the year, we expect to be around 65% to 70% of immediate availability by end of Q3 and 70% plus to 75% by end of the year. That is after plan. Indeed, we have decided to substantially lower our shipping velocity just to adjust to the demand and avoid the [ seize of ] effect. But that means that while being ahead of plan now, we still plan to be according to plan by year-end. That is for the supply chain. In terms of inventory excess, so your question I think was about the market and Maisons du Monde. So we obviously do not have visibility on inventories at competition. But what we do see is that, there is particularly high promotional intensity right now, and we could reasonably attribute that to sub-demand and some risk of excess inventory management, to put it that way. When it comes to Maisons du Monde, we do not have an excess inventory problem, but inventory management is obviously a key point of focus in the sense that inventories are higher than initial plan at the end of June, given under sub-demand, but we do have a clear action plan to manage this going forward. And this is why indeed increased promotional activity is one lever to mitigate this risk. And now, I would like to reassure you on several items here. Well, first, because our furniture, inventories are currently at suboptimal levels. We do not have excess inventory in furniture by definition. So our high inventory levels are more on decoration items. And these items make the bulk of H2 sales, as you know, in our model, and especially in Q4. And now second point is, our decoration items generally have a good sell-through at markdown prices and they are more impulse purchases. And if we look at recent consumer sentiment surveys, we can see that for those consumers who will have to make restrictions on spending, they think that it will may trade from large spending items to smaller spending items, which would favor decoration. So that play in favor of that. And finally, decoration items have a higher gross margin, as you know. So markdowns for these products is easier to absorb. And finally, the third reassuring point is that, there is no risk of inventory obsolescence here. We are not in the food industry or even the fashion industry and what is not sold in a given season can be offered in the next season, as you know. And this is particularly true with Maisons du Monde as we can reinterpret some products and put them in different decoration themes, so to give them a new life with that markdown. And this is exactly what we did in 2020. So inventory management is a key point of focus, but we don't see that as a problem. And everything is included in the gross margin guidance we gave, that is about 63% for the full year.

In fact, for your question on the share buyback, the answer will be pretty quick. There is no specific thresholds associated to the program in the way we can now implement it. We will start tomorrow. And as per any share buyback program and the one we did last year, we will monitor it step by step, but no specific limit or threshold.

[Operator Instructions] We will now take the next question. And the next question is coming from the line of Stephen Benhamou from BNPP Exane.

I have 4 questions actually, the first one is about the guidance that you gave in terms of store sales and online sales. Can you please confirm the range of 10% to low-teens store sales erosion and 10% to mid-teens online sales acquisition in H2? This is my first question. Second question is about the negotiation with suppliers. Can you please elaborate on this item? What has changed since the profit warning in end of May when you mentioned that your supplier increased their prices? And what makes you confident to negotiate a better contract terms only 2 months after this profit warning? My third question, if my calculations are okay, it means that your price impact would be neutral this year if we include the markdowns? And my last question...

Sorry, Stephen, we didn't get that question, please?