MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

June 5, 2024

NASDAQ US Financials Capital Markets conference_presentation 24 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Patrick Moley

analyst
#1

All right. Welcome back to the 2024 Piper Sandler Global Exchange and Trading Conference. My name is Patrick Moley. I'm a senior research analyst covering the exchanges, trading companies and online brokers. Happy to introduce our next guest, MarketAxess, Global Head of Trading, Mr. Rich Schiffman. MarketAxess is an electronic fixed income trading platform. There are significant player in U.S. credit markets and have a growing footprint in Europe as well. Thanks for joining us.

Richard Schiffman

executive
#2

Yes. Thanks for having me.

Patrick Moley

analyst
#3

So you released metrics this morning. Maybe we'll start there. Any takeaways, any high-level things that you think are worth pointing out?

Richard Schiffman

executive
#4

Yes. Thanks. We're happy to see some reasonable progress. I mean the market conditions have been pretty similar to the kind of environment we're operating in, has been relatively challenging, but we're starting to see some progress, we think that's favorable for our business. So we saw a reasonable share in investment grade, about 19%, 13% share in high yield. Pleased with our progress in portfolio trading, a big area of focus now and something quite active in the market, running about 22% of the share. So some positive trends, really pleased with our performance in municipal bonds. We have a kind of a new high watermark there and about 8% share and really good performance in our international business in emerging markets and eurobonds. So we feel things are heading in the right direction. The comparables to last year, still a bit challenging, but market environment has been a big factor. And we'll see what the summer brings for us and it's going to be an interesting year with the election upcoming and geopolitical factors weighing in. So just when we think the market is going to be kind of calm, you might see things getting choppier.

Patrick Moley

analyst
#5

Yes. And that was going to be my next question. Just on the macro, you mentioned how low spread volatility has impacted run into some market share issues. Can you talk about the impact that the environment has had over the last several quarters and your expectations if we do get a little bit of a pickup in volatility, how you'd expect that to impact the business?

Richard Schiffman

executive
#6

Yes. We talk about it a lot. What's happening with spread volatility is a factor in how people decide to trade. And especially with the choice between doing a portfolio trade versus doing an in competition trade, where someone is looking for best execution on each line item individually as opposed to saying what is the aggregate price for this entire portfolio, volatility plays a factor. And in a calmer market, as we are right now, the portfolio trading is relatively less expensive, we should recognize the dealers do not warehouse the risk of these large PTs that are going through. They're looking to turn it quickly and what is it going to cost them to get out of those positions, whether it's through an ETF arbitrage or some other type of kind of bulk trade themselves. So in the lower volatility environment, it will be a relatively less expensive trade to execute. And then when you get into times of very high choppiness, let's go back to pandemic kind of period and things, which is when you see the in-comp activity and the importance of alternative liquidity providers. That's the -- going to a real extreme case where dealers maybe are backing away because they don't want to take on risk -- that's going to be a period where you see the Open Trading type of style of trading really differentiating itself. So it goes through these kind of waves and things, volatility is definitely a big factor in the market. The high-yield market, we've been talking about this for some time, the challenge is there. There's -- we're pretty much at historic tights in terms of high-yield spreads. Right now we're running about a little over 300 basis points or so. There's a lot of demand for high-yield paper investment firms, are holding on to that paper, so that desire to kind of turn it over is down. Sourcing of that high-yield paper coming a lot through the new issue market, which is up right now, that's been headwinds for our electronic trading business, because it's put a damper on some of this activity, also damper on ETF arbitrage activity, which is a big segment of our business. So these are the kind of macro factors that have been weighing in, and we'll see what the summer months prove. But again, going into the second half of this year, it kind of feels a bit continuing for calm waters is maybe not the safest one.

Patrick Moley

analyst
#7

No, I think you might be right there. So there's a number of new initiatives that you've been working on to kind of address some of the share headwinds you've run into. You've introduced X-Pro, which is kind of the EMS front-end system, and that kind of acts as a delivery mechanism for a lot of the new initiatives. Can you talk about the ways that you're leveraging that to address some of these issues? And can you walk us through kind of where we are in terms of the overall product rollout there?

Richard Schiffman

executive
#8

Yes, sure. Happy to do so. And X-Pro, it is our new front end. It's a modern interface. It's the desktop solution for our buy-side clients. It's where we're heading. It is very important for our portfolio trading initiative. And especially because doing PTs involves manipulating large data sets at one time, we're looking for a modern interface that's much better at manipulating that data, being able to quickly move back and forth between the responses from multiple dealers and being able to compare and contrast and so forth. So having a more flexible interface is important for that. I should note, any one of our clients who still wishes to use our legacy interface can do so. That's not disabled, it's available, sometimes people are not so quick to change. But all of the new features that we're building for portfolio trading and high-touch initiative, I can talk about as well, all of those new capabilities are being delivered via X-Pro. So we're not delivering new functionality in portfolio trading in the old interface. And that will cause people to shift over time, the more compelling the feature the more likely. So our most recent statistics on this in terms of adoption, 55% of our portfolio trading now and notional volume activity is taking place in X-Pro. It's a little over half and I would expect that number is going to continue. Each quarter we move along, we'll see more adoption in X-Pro relative to the old interface.

Patrick Moley

analyst
#9

Sure. So on portfolio trading, I want to ask you, where do you think, overall, it's headed from here? I think we're at -- as a percentage of overall market volume is around 10% currently, how big do you think that number can get? And if we do get some choppiness here and spreads widen out, do you think that, that number returns back down to the 5% range has sort of been over the last several years? Or do you think we're sort of on a continuous adoption trend where this keeps rising?

Richard Schiffman

executive
#10

Yes. No, it's a good question, Patrick. And there's no denying, there's increasing interest in doing portfolio trade. I think that trend continues. As I mentioned earlier, the market conditions are a big factor. So on a relative basis, we should see less portfolio trading in higher volatility environments and things. Portfolio trading is also -- it's very episodic in nature. So some of them were done. I gave an example earlier about a particular buy-side firm that did, I believe, it was a $13 billion PT in 2 pieces, bilaterally with one dealer. So it was not on a venue, ours or otherwise. That's a once-in-a-year trade. And that undoubtedly caused a spike in PT percent adoption in the month that had occurred. And then just this past month, it was down again, I think it was -- I think the number was somewhere around 8%, for example. So you might see this kind of bouncing around. I think the interest is growing. Everybody is looking for opportunities for where it makes sense to do those, but you'll have kind of macro factors, which will then influence the overall choice that might bring that down a bit. So they are here to stay. I also commented earlier, what they look like, 3 years from now might be very different than what they look like today though. Portfolio trading is still a relatively new protocol in the market, maybe it's 5 or so, 6 years old and things. And I think we would expect to see ongoing innovation that's going to continue to evolve what it means to do a PT and how a client interacts with it.

Patrick Moley

analyst
#11

Yes. So with that ongoing innovation and if it does continue to grow as a percentage of market volumes, do you think that the capabilities and the functionality that you offer through X-Pro today are enough to compete with some of the other players out there? Or do you think you would potentially look to pull some other levers like pricing in order to kind of remain competitive there?

Richard Schiffman

executive
#12

Yes. I don't think it's going to come down to pricing. PTs are already competitively priced. It's one of the relatively lower fee capture solutions that are in the market, whether it's with MarketAxess or any other venue. And the reason for that competitive pricing is because the liquidity being offered on any of the venues is exactly the same. It's a relatively small number, let's call it 6, 8, 10, if we're being generous, number of dealers that are particularly strong in PT liquidity solutions. And there's not really any differentiation when it comes to that liquidity. So venues then compete in functionality. And can I have the best kind of bells and whistles to make this a productive workflow. So that then opens up the possibility about where do these go in the future? Are there ways to bring the competitive liquidity from the open market, together with the really beneficial workflow efficiencies of a PT, so that a buy-side firm can get the best of both. I think that's going to be an interesting area of development in the coming couple of years here. And how do we make these PTs be something better than they are today? That's where we have our eye focused right now, and we want to look for ways to differentiate ourselves and provide higher value service to our clients.

Patrick Moley

analyst
#13

Can we maybe unpack that a little bit? Like what are those kind of things that you're thinking about in terms of differentiation?

Richard Schiffman

executive
#14

Yes. Well, it comes down to liquidity providers, right? And is there a way to introduce new liquidity for these types of trades, right? While still having that benefit of the all or none list, while still having all of those analytics, and we think about things where even with competitive list trading, what about delivering some of the analytics and the aggregate kind of price color on an in comp list and kind of knowing where someone stands in that way, for example, right? Or some of the more competitive elements of liquidity provision into the PT framework. Now it's not Open Trading, where you've got 2,000-plus participants involved, and you're not necessarily going to get anywhere near that kind of number of market participants that can price in that kind of way. But I think there are interesting things to do with more stratified groups of liquidity providers and things. So I think, again, it's a pretty new protocol, just being around 5 or 6 years or so. There's plenty of room for innovation in the PT space for clients.

Patrick Moley

analyst
#15

Sure. And I know, Chris, on the last call, you kind of talked about this idea that the longer-term market opportunity as sort of shifting in your favor, he thought. And he was talking about these larger trade sizes getting broken down, running through RFQ to a higher fee per million, and that's going to increase trading velocity. So can you kind of just talk about how you expect that to evolve? And maybe just elaborate on some of those items of why you think that it's shifting in your favor?

Richard Schiffman

executive
#16

Yes. No, happy to do so. And so using investment-grade market as an example, and I believe the stat is, it's somewhere just below 50% of the notional volume in the market today, is taking place in block trades. We call it 5 million and up. And that's the area with the lowest electronic penetration. And I mentioned some cases of how we're trying to solve that with our protocols, even if it's -- we do quite a bit of volume just with the traditional RFQ in doing blocks, but there is a reluctance sometimes to put those out broadly. So that introduces solutions for doing them more narrowly in terms of how they go out. But the really intriguing one and what we've seen in other markets is, these opportunities to break that large block up into smaller pieces. And this is where our algorithmic capabilities come into play. And we made a pretty substantial bet, investment in working with algorithmic capabilities by buying Pragma towards the end of last year, which is all about providing solutions where we make it very easy for a buy side trader to break that piece up, to take advantage of the different protocols that we offer, whether it's our order book being able to leave a resting order of a partial size, have that algorithm respond automatically to increase that come into the system during the day. And then if there's some time constraint, then maybe after they take advantage of those opportunities, be able to RFQ that into the market, even breaking that up into smaller pieces. And to the extent that there is greater capital constraints on the banks, their ability to take risk, especially in the larger sizes gets diminished, the way to get these larger pieces will be done and a better liquidity is in those sizes, let's call it, 0.5 million to 1 million where all of the alternative liquidity providers kind of operate. And that creates a lot of opportunity for the buy-side trader who needs to move the large position to get favorable pricing. So that is an area we are quite excited about. As Chris has noted, it opens up the opportunity for relatively higher fee on the smaller trades. Some of these algorithmic capabilities, again, we think can command higher fees and things and good for the client, good for MarketAxess in terms of business opportunity.

Patrick Moley

analyst
#17

Maybe switching gears. Looking internationally, you've seen a lot of strength recently in eurobonds and emerging markets. In the first quarter, you saw a record ADV in both. What do you think is driving the success there? And maybe you could touch on just how these markets differ from the U.S. in terms of customer mix, protocol utilization?

Richard Schiffman

executive
#18

Yes. No, happy to. It's definitely an area of strength for us, and we have a major presence in London. We have our offices in Singapore and Hong Kong where we cover the client base from the local market itself, and it's been a real bright spot. I mean, emerging markets, especially, I mean, that's a market that is really benefiting from the service that we provide. Open Trading comes to be a very big factor there because it's a global product. You've got someone who's trading in Asia that might be trading LatAm paper who can do so with a dealer in South America, and not have to worry about that relationship, right? Without the Open Trading solution and this type of connectivity, it leaves a lot of hops manually to get to the end liquidity, and that's costly. So I think that's one of the big factors that drives the electronic trading, being able to bring this together. Our presence in local markets now -- in emerging markets, we're trading in the local currencies and local debt. It's also an area where global investors have this really easy way now to tap into local market liquidity providers that they otherwise wouldn't naturally have access to or necessarily have a relationship with. So these are big factors that drive emerging markets. Eurobond market has been definitely a strong one for us. RFQ protocol and PTs prevalent in the European market, and we're getting traction, of course, in the RFQ, but PT is now as well. Open Trading quite attractive again, broad liquidity provision from alternative providers and clients. So we find that our solution is -- works quite well in these areas, and we've been able to compete favorably with the other venues, especially in the eurobond market.

Patrick Moley

analyst
#19

Maybe bringing it back over to the U.S. and kind of taking a step back. On the competitive landscape, what's the current state of play in the U.S.? What are your thoughts on that? Can you kind of just give us a state of the union on how you think about the overall competitive landscape in U.S. credit, maybe specifically high yield where you've seen share kind of compressed from where it was last year?

Richard Schiffman

executive
#20

Yes. And to address the high yield one and because we've looked, obviously, very, very closely at it and things. The share losses in high yield, we don't necessarily attribute to the competition, but rather other factors and new issue, attention, the drop in ETF activity, which was something that's a big part of our high-yield business. But look, generally speaking, the U.S. credit -- no question, competition and Tradeweb is doing a very nice job in PTs, especially and in the interdealer market with their product called Sweep, which is a matching protocol. We compete in that space with an RFQ solution. That's our main thing. We call it dealer RFQ. We offer the same liquidity solutions for sell-side traders as we do for the buy side, and that's great for being able to tap into the broad global liquidity that's available in Open Trading. But the matching solutions, the auction style, that's something that we're pursuing as well. We call our solution Mid-X. It's a periodic type of model. You come in once a day, for example, and let's see who wants to trade at mid-market. It's a very different type of protocol as opposed to the RFQ, which is available throughout the day. So there's use -- clearly, use cases for both of them. It's good to be able to offer both of those solutions in the dealer space. But, look, PTs are an area of head-on competition. We have still a material lead in, let's call it, the traditional client-to-dealer in competition type business. That's our kind of bread-and-butter and flagship area where we have a substantial lead. PTs are an area of real competition, and that's going to require innovative features like we were talking about earlier and leveraging the deep relationships that we have with our client base. We have all of those clients on board, our platform, it's a matter of getting them attracted to the solutions we're putting in the market and making sure we innovate in ways that are going to attract that business.

Patrick Moley

analyst
#21

I think a lot of that is going to help drive electronification, which leads me to my next question, probably the last question here. What are your thoughts just on the pace of electronification we've seen? And what could be the next catalyst that kind of gets us over the next hurdle toward -- sort of the next step-up in electronification? How do you think about that?

Richard Schiffman

executive
#22

Yes. Well, it's definitely going to come in the block space. I mean the electronic penetration in smaller-sized trades is actually -- it's reasonably high, and we have quite strong market share there. How we get to our 19% in investment grade, for example, is quite high. In the smaller-sized trades, it's about 10% in the block trade. So it's all kind of averaging out. And it's going to be coming up with the solutions that allow buy-side traders to feel comfortable doing those larger trades electronically. Not surprisingly, I am, of course, an electronic trading bull here and believe we're going to very high market share in electronic trading, it's going to come in different forms, though. It's not all going to be through one protocol, and you're going to have process trades being an important part of what happens as well. There's not going to be very much trading that happens where someone just talks on the phone and then books a trade manually. And I say that's going away. Everything is going to be handled electronically one way or another. Some of it's going to be done still in a rather bespoke manner and the venues in that case, not adding a lot of value that could be courtesy trades, which we do are very low-cost trades to do. And then on the other end of the spectrum are things like what we do with Open Trading, which is our highest kind of margin product, highest value-added service to the clients. And we believe going to be a growing part of this market, but that's the [Indiscernible] spectrum and a lot of things in between of varying degrees of value add for the market participants and corresponding fee capture with it.

Patrick Moley

analyst
#23

Sure. All right. Well, I think that's time. Rich, thanks so much for joining us.

Richard Schiffman

executive
#24

Yes. Thanks a lot, Patrick.

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