Marshalls plc (MSLH) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the Marshalls 2026 Half Year Results Presentation. First of all, thank you to everybody in the room for joining us and of course, to those online, too. As usual, I'm joined this morning for the presentation by Justin Lockwood, our Chief Financial Officer. Now just a quick rundown of the agenda. I'm going to give a brief overview of the Group highlights before handing over to Justin, who will take us through the Group's half year financial results in more detail. I'm then going to return to share an update on the progress that we are making by way of an operational review, highlighting the tangible metrics to demonstrate the progress that we are making. I'll then return to share -- sorry, I'll then wrap up with a summary and a view on the outlook before opening the floor to questions. And just a quick reminder for our online participants, you can submit your questions at any time via the chat, and we'll read them out in the room before responding. So before I hand over to Justin to take us through the half year results in detail, just a quick reminder of the priorities that we set out in March. You'll recall we talked about sharper execution and a tangible delivery that will be evidenced through visible KPIs and profit growth. Well, the message at the half year is simple. We are doing just that and delivering on exactly what we said we would do. Our refreshed operating focus for improved outcomes is enabling us to lead the market. We've strengthened our customer engagement, supported by new product development across all of our business units. We're more disciplined with cost and pricing. And alongside our great service and product propositions, we are converting our market position into better financial outcomes. In Landscaping, we're seeing a recovery as the performance improvement plan starts to flow through into profitability. In this business unit alone, we have launched six new ranges to address gaps in the product ladder. And customer confidence is improving. Market share is growing, and our cost reduction program remains on track. Beyond Landscaping, the balance of our diversified portfolio continues to provide resilience. Roofing remains a strong profit contributor and Water Management being well positioned strategically. The result of this is growth opportunities across different demand trends and multiple end markets. And finally, financial discipline remains a priority for us. Cash conversion continues to exceed target. Net debt is lower than June last year, and leverage is reducing in line with our expectations. So the strategy remains unchanged, and our focus continues to be on sharper execution, and the first half shows that this is beginning to deliver. And with that, I'll hand over to Justin to take you through the financial detail.

Well, thank you, Simon, and good morning, everybody. So I'm going to take you through the key financial highlights for the period, and I'll then talk through the detail of the financial performance at both Group level in each of our reporting segments and from a cash flow perspective. I'll then give you an update on the strength of the balance sheet before closing with a recap on the capital allocation policy. So this slide sets out the key financial highlights for the period. And you can see that revenue was broadly flat year-on-year at GBP 318 million. And that's in the context of weak activity levels in our end markets. However, operating profit increased by 8% to GBP 30.7 million, and that reflects an improved performance in Landscaping Products. And those growth rates are amplified as you go down the profit and loss account, such that profit before tax increased by 13% to GBP 24.9 million with the benefit of a lower finance charge. Earnings per share increased by a slightly faster rate of 14% to 7.6p per share and benefiting from a lower effective tax rate. And we've increased our interim dividend by 14% as well, reflecting the application of our capital -- of our dividend policy. And pre-IFRS16 net debt has reduced year-on-year by about GBP 15 million, and that's driven by our continued disciplined approach to cash and capital management. So I'll now move on to the performance for the half year at Group level. The chart on the left of this slide sets out a year-on-year revenue bridge that illustrates that revenues were broadly flat across each of our reporting segments, arriving at that total of GBP 318 million. Now that's against the context of weak activity levels across the key end markets of new housing and private housing RMI. And with that backdrop, volumes were lower year-on-year, and there was a slightly softer product mix. However, that was largely offset by the benefit of pricing actions that we implemented during the period. The chart on the right of the slide sets out a similar bridge, but this time for operating profit. And it sets out the component parts of the GBP 2.3 million increase in operating profit to GBP 30.7 million. And you can see from the bridge visually that profitability in Landscaping improved by a little over GBP 5 million. And that was partially offset by slightly lower profits in both Roofing and Building Products and slightly higher central costs. Now the profitability numbers included in this presentation are all stated after adding back adjusting items. And for the first half of this year, it's quite simple. It's a GBP 5.2 million adjusting item relating to the recurring noncash amortization of intangible assets that arise on acquisitions. So I'll now move on to each of our reporting segments, starting with Landscaping Products. Revenue held steady in Landscaping Products despite weaker markets. We focused on building market share, and we've done that through a focus on our customer proposition and our service levels, and we're pleased to see improving customer Net Promoter Scores as a result of that. However, volumes in this segment were lower year-on-year despite the positive share momentum. And that was offset by pricing actions that drove some P&L benefit. Operating profit increased by GBP 5.2 million in the first half of the year, and that was driven by the Landscaping improvement plan, which showed itself in the P&L account through improved gross margins, lower manufacturing costs and reduced overheads. Now that was partially offset during the period by surcharges that we started to see flowing through the P&L account arising from higher oil prices and the war in Iran. And as Simon mentioned earlier, we remain on track to deliver the GBP 11 million of annualized cost savings by the end of 2026. So in simple terms, the Landscaping improvement plan is delivering better financial outcomes. So now moving on to Building Products, where revenues were down just less than 1% during the period, and that reflects a mixed performance across the business units with continued growth from Mortars & Screeds, offset by lower revenues in Water Management and Bricks & Masonry. Mortars & Screeds continued to benefit from its strong service proposition and demand for its ready-to-use product, and that's in the context of relatively low build rates on housing developments. Water Management revenues were down year-on-year, reflecting the soft-core housing -- new housing market, but that was partially offset by growing infrastructure-related revenues. And similarly, in our Bricks & Masonry business, soft activity levels in new build housing and competitive supply -- the competitive supply position impacted revenues in that business unit. Operating profit was GBP 700,000 lower year-on-year at GBP 6.2 million. And that reflects the impact of lower business volumes, oil price-related surcharges flowing into the P&L account and a slightly less efficient manufacturing performance. And that latter driver arose from the extended site shutdown that is not expected to recur in the second half of the year. Now those challenges were partially offset through commercial -- or targeted commercial actions that are set to recover some of that surcharge cost inflation and ongoing overhead discipline across the reporting segment. Now moving on to Roofing Products, where revenues again were down a touch year-on-year, and that reflects continued growth from Viridian Solar, offset by weaker revenue performance from Marley. Viridian Solar, as guided, the rate of revenue growth moderated slightly during the first half year to around about 7% as the adoption of roof integrated solar driven by part of the 2021 building regulations became increasingly embedded. In Marley, revenues are lower due to increased competitive intensity in concrete roof tiles. And you may recall from our presentation in March that we highlighted that we expected a 12% increase in supply capacity during the 12 months to June, and that's pretty much what's happened. And alongside that, we've seen softness in demand from new build housing. However, in that -- against that context, we're pleased that we increased our share of the concrete roof tile market, and that's supported by our focus on the more resilient RMI market rather than new build. Now the challenges around the concrete roof tile market were partially offset by growth in clay roof tiles and improved attachment rates for Roofing accessories. As guided, operating profit reduced by GBP 1.7 million to GBP 23.1 million, and that reflected continued growth from Viridian Solar, offset by lower profitability in Marley. Viridian Solar's profitability growth was driven by higher volumes and continued commercial discipline. And in Marley Roofing, the lower volumes of concrete roof tiles and weaker manufacturing efficiency reduced profitability in line with our expectations. So I'll now move on to the lower half of the profit and loss account from operating profit through to earnings. And as mentioned earlier, Group operating profit increased by 8% to GBP 30.7 million. Finance costs were lower year-on-year by GBP 600,000, reflecting the deleveraging from our focus on reducing net debt. And as a consequence, PBT increased by 13% to GBP 24.9 million. The effective tax rate was 23% in the period. That's 1 percentage point lower than this time last year, and it reflects the benefit of the patent box arrangement that we have in place. And so take all that together, we get an EPS growth of 14%, driven by improved operating performance, lower finance costs and the reduced effective tax rate. So I'll now turn on to our cash flow performance and the resulting net debt. The chart on this slide sets out the component parts of the reduction in net debt during the period, starting with EBITDA of GBP 44 million on the left-hand side. And we've continued to focus on working capital efficiency during the period. And as a result, our cash conversion performance has been very good at 98% and that has restricted the seasonal cash outflow of working capital during the period to about GBP 20 million, which is an improvement year-on-year. Finance and tax cash flows consumed about GBP 11 million during the period, which is pretty similar to this time last year. And net CapEx was GBP 7 million, and that reflects gross CapEx of GBP 8.5 million, partially offset by the proceeds from site disposals of GBP 1.5 million. We continue to take a targeted approach to capital expenditure and the key areas of spend in the period were on more efficient secondary processing capacity in Landscaping Products and increased maintenance capital spend in Marley, which is focused on improving the manufacturing efficiency, which causes some degree of P&L hit during the first half of the year. We had GBP 2.9 million of adjusting items paid. They simply related to the restructuring actions that were implemented in 2025. And so take all that lot together, and we closed the half year with net debt of GBP 137 million. That's GBP 15 million lower than this time last year and GBP 1 million lower than our year-end net debt position despite the usual seasonal cash outflow from working capital. So now moving on to the balance sheet. So this slide sets out a range of metrics that are focused on working capital management returns and balance sheet strength. And you can see from the table on the right-hand side that debtor days, creditor days and inventory turn are all broadly unchanged, reflecting that focus on working capital management that I touched on the last slide. Return on capital employed was a touch over 7%, which is in line with last year. And we continue to target an improvement in return on capital employed in the medium term as we deliver the benefits from our Transform & Grow strategy, and we see a normalization of market volumes. And Simon will talk through what a pathway might look like for that in his operational review. The balance sheet remains resilient and robust and strengthened a touch during the period with leverage reducing to 1.7x. And we've got significant headroom against our syndicated bank facility of GBP 125 million. And it's that source of capital along with the cash-generative nature of the business model that will provide the cash and the capital that we need to execute our growth plans going forward. So finally for me, moving on to a recap on our capital allocation policy. Our first priority remains to invest in organic growth opportunities. And in our strategic plan, we envisage spending between GBP 20 million and GBP 30 million a year. And in 2026, we expect gross CapEx to be around the bottom end of that range. However, we expect to generate between GBP 4 million and GBP 5 million in cash from site disposals, which will reduce the net CapEx to around GBP 15 million or GBP 16 million. We've increased the interim dividend by 14%, and that reflects the application of our dividend policy of maintaining 2x cover of adjusted earnings and paying 1/3 of the anticipated full year dividend at the interim stage. The balance sheet is deleveraging. We talked about that on the last couple of slides. So we reduced net debt and leverage in the first half of the year. And we expect continued reductions in net debt from the organic cash generation from the business as we go forward. And we continue to target EBITDA -- sorry, leverage to be in the range of 0.5 to 1.5x EBITDA and expect us to be around the top end of that range at the end of this financial year. And with that, I'll hand back to Simon, who will talk you through the operational review.

Thank you, Justin. Before we go into the operational review itself, I just want to share with you a short video that I think really demonstrates where we sit in the market and indeed why we are winning. [Presentation]

Okay. So I'm sure you'll agree that video really does capture the diversity of the products and the systems that we deliver, demonstrates why we are winning in the market. So I'm now going to take you through a more detailed operational review step by step. So first of all, despite a tough market and a continued tough market backdrop, delivering on our commitments is the key thing that I want you to take away from our first half performance. The strength of our product portfolio and overall service proposition is certainly key to delivery. However, the greater focus is providing the confidence and the resilience that we need right now. The sharper execution approach that we set out in March is now embedded and beginning to deliver measurable results. And the key point here, and as a reminder, this is not a redesign of the strategy. It is about sharper execution, putting resource, management attention and accountability behind the areas that matter the most. And this is showing itself in three ways. First of all, focus. We're making clearer choices about the leadership where leadership time and indeed capital is directed, which is helping us to prioritize the actions with the greatest positive impact. Secondly, the pace in which we are moving. Accountability for delivery is much clearer across the organization with greater emphasis on outcomes rather than the activity itself. This change in approach is improving our confidence in delivery and helping to strengthen our resilience. And with this more efficient approach, the business is better positioned to convert recovery into profit growth. And as I walk through the business units later in the presentation, you will certainly see the evidence of this renewed approach flowing through to the results. Now our diversified portfolio is a real strength for us. The fact is value creation for Marshalls is not dependent on one specific area of market recovery. And across the Group, we have 3 distinct drivers that will create value. We have self-help actions. We have structural growth. And of course, when it comes, we have cyclical upside. In Landscaping and Roofing, the primary opportunity is self-help. And whether this is a recovery or maintenance play, it is all within our control. Improving commercial execution, cost and pricing discipline and of course, operational performance will all enable us to optimize share and maintain market-leading positions. For Viridian Solar and Water Management, the primary driver is structural growth. These businesses are well positioned behind longer-term demand trends, including energy transition, Water Management and infrastructure investment. And for Bricks & Masonry, the largest driver is cyclical upside. The business is exposed to recovery in new build and RMI markets but now has a stronger operating base to benefit when demand returns. So the key message again, this is a balanced portfolio. Some businesses are driven more by self-help execution, some by structural demand and some by market recovery. However, together, they do provide multiple routes to margin improvement and value creation over the medium term. So let's bring this all together to demonstrate how operating profit could progress over time. And we've built this visual to help. If we think about the drivers that I've described as value buckets, you can see clearly how you may bridge back to double the operating profit that we achieved in 2025. In this model, self-help is worth around GBP 17 million, and this is driven by cost management, by management-led margin expansion and share growth in our mature markets. Structural growth gives us some GBP 14 million, and this is driven from our exposure to markets that benefit from longer-term regulatory tailwinds. And the third value bucket is cyclical upside, which is shown at around GBP 25 million. And this is simply demand normalizing over time, providing benefit through operating leverage. And the result of this is GBP 112 million worth of operating profit. And just as a reminder, that is less than what we achieved on a pro forma basis in 2021 and 2022. And the key takeaway here is the balance of that delivery. Around 55% of the uplift comes from self-help and growth market exposure, both of which are within our control and not dependent on the market turning. And that is giving us some real confidence in the plans that we have got. And in this model, we do retain downside flexibility. If the recovery in our traditional markets is delayed, further cost reduction actions provide additional optionality. So we are well positioned in either scenario. So I'm now going to take you through each of the business units in a little bit more detail. You will recall the primary opportunity in Landscaping is self-help with commercial excellence and the reset of the cost base clearly building a positive momentum. If we then underpin this with renewed customer confidence driven by our service and product propositions, you can see clearly why we are confident in our plan. So I'm just going to work from left to right on the slide. Customer engagement has improved materially. Better service performance has helped rebuild customer confidence with Net Promoter Scores up 11 percentage points since 2025. And that is translating into stronger commercial commitment with growth in our share of wallet and overall market share growth of 2.6 percentage points. Commercial excellence focus is driving more value from our specification-led model. We are engaging earlier with decision-makers, improving project support through our new digital tools and strengthening the mid-range offer through new product development. The early indicators here are very encouraging with project quotation activity up by 15%. And this is supported by the Marshalls Design and Engineering tools that were introduced in June. And from a new product development perspective, Lunar Textured was successfully launched in May. And finally, the cost base reset is progressing to plan. Network optimization is improving efficiency and projects that we delivered in 2025 are driving intra-site journeys down by 19% and complexity is being reduced, including a 30% SKU reduction since 2025. So the overall program is creating a more efficient operating base with GBP 11 million worth of annualized savings on track to be delivered this year. So the key message here is very clear. These self-help actions are not theoretical. They are visible in customer metrics, operational efficiency and shared momentum, and they provide a stronger platform for continued margin improvement and further recovery potential. Now on to Marley Roofing. Again, the primary opportunity here is self-help. In other words, things within our control. This business unit is being managed with real commercial and operational discipline. We have successfully defended our market share and therefore, continue to deliver a resilient profit contribution. We also continue to push new product development in this business unit, including the launch of Edgemere 2.0 as part of our new low-carbon roofing tile offer. Now I'm just going to move around the graphic. In social housing, RMI, we're maintaining our market-leading position in a much more competitive market, and we have grown share in social housing. Now this is a core resilient end market for Marley and protecting share here underpins the earnings resilience of this business unit. We're also growing value from our full roof system-offer, increasing the attachment rate across accessories, ventilation and solar, where we have seen an increase of 2 percentage points compared to half 2 in 2025. And again, this is a really important lever for maintaining margin and customer loyalty as we sell more of the complete system rather than the roof tile alone. Alongside social RMI, we're driving share in private RMI. And by deepening contractor engagement and making it easier to specify, buy from and indeed install our products, we have grown our specification bank by around 20% on a last 12 months basis. And underpinning all of this is operational excellence. We're maintaining service, quality and cost discipline whilst progressing our capital expenditure plans. We've already deployed 20% more capital to maintain the quality of our products, and that investment program is on track. So the key message again here is very simple. Marley is a resilient profit contributor. We are defending share in our traditional heartlands, growing attachment rates across the system, and we're investing with discipline to keep the business fit for the future. And now on to Viridian Solar. Now the primary driver in this business unit is structural growth, and this is evidenced by successfully scaling this business unit through the Part L transition, where we've seen revenue increasing 300% between 2021 and 2025. And as we see the Part L adoption becoming largely embedded, our focus is increasingly on optimizing market share and margin and maintaining customer relationships from the platform that we've already built. Now the next regulatory opportunity for this business unit is the Future Homes Standard, and our analysis indicates this has the potential to materially increase the addressable market. Now in preparation for this increase, our focus today is on being ready for our customers through specification support and capacity planning as the transition develops. And alongside the core market, the ArcBox product provides a safety-led adjacent opportunity. Now half 1 export sales increased significantly, and we continue to develop this opportunity through international partnerships and disciplined validation of demand. And again, a very simple key message. Viridian Solar has already scaled successfully, holding share and margin in a dramatically expanded market. And we also have a clear phase of regulatory growth ahead, and we are building additional optionality through targeted innovation. And on to Water Management. Again, Water Management will benefit from structural growth drivers, and we continue to pivot this business unit towards infrastructure-led growth. We're focused on demand visibility, specification influence and operational readiness. And this will enable greater conversion of sales and support future growth in this business unit. The objective here is very clear to create a scalable and agile infrastructure-driven business. Looking at demand visibility, the AMP8 investment cycle is now underway, and that is showing up in our numbers. AMP8 sales are up more than double compared to the first half of 2025. Our quote activity is also increasing and the pipeline is improving. And this is supported by broader climate adaptation trends and the adjacent infrastructure opportunities that we see. And just to frame the scale of that, the U.K. physical adaptation market is estimated at between GBP 57 billion and GBP 64 billion out to 2035. We're also starting to influence specification by engaging earlier in project life cycles. We're working with consultants, water companies and utility providers, and we now have framework agreements in place with three water utility organizations. And when we talk about operational readiness, we are very well placed. Our national manufacturing and delivery footprint supports scale, and our technical and engineering capability remains a key differentiator for us. Our investment plans are kept deliberately capital light within the existing network. So the focus here for the second half of the year is firmly on the development of our infrastructure growth platform to ensure that we unlock those opportunities as they move from design into delivery. And in the meantime, we will maintain a competitive position in our existing markets. Now finally, turning to Bricks & Masonry, and this is very much our cyclical upside story. And in the current environment, we are protecting margins through disciplined execution. Now this is the most challenging market where competitive supply conditions persist and new housing demand does remain subdued and customer decision-making is slow. But against that reality, our first half focus has been squarely on what we can control and how we protect margin. Now that means execution excellence across service and delivery and disciplined management of our cost base, including supply chain, manufacturing and logistics. And of course, staying close to our customers through site support, ease of use and national partnerships. On capital allocation in this business unit, we are being deliberately selective. We have no plans to further convert Landscaping lines to brick lines, but we do retain capital-light optionality should conditions warrant it. So again, a very simple key message. We're protecting our market position and strengthening our execution model now so that when demand recovers, the business delivers meaningful operational leverage. So now let's turn to the summary and the outlook before moving into Q&A. So as a reminder, our strategy is unchanged, and our focus on execution is feeding through to delivery. Self-help actions have driven higher profit, earnings and dividend despite marginally lower revenue. Market leadership is strengthening through new product development, more disciplined pricing and overall reliability. Landscaping is recovering as the performance improvement plan converts to profit with greater customer engagement, new product development and disciplined cost management. And our product portfolio diversification is providing countercyclical defensiveness. We have more than one value bucket. self-help and structural drivers are within our control. And finally, we have strong financial discipline that has seen deleveraging track in line with our expectations. So yes, our end markets do remain subdued. However, we are not banking on any material market recovery in the second half. Our confidence in our ability to deliver on our full year expectations comes instead from what is within our control. I said to you back in March that I was focused on commercial and financial discipline, and that absolutely remains the case. We are delivering against the plan. The GBP 11 million worth of annualized Landscape savings remains on track. And the operational improvements that we set out in March is translating into outcomes in line with our expectations. And as a result of all of this, our expectations for full year profitability are unchanged. And beyond this year, our Transform & Grow strategy will continue to underpin the medium-term improvement in margin, cash generation and returns that this investment case is built on. Apologies. With, of course, the pathway to doubling our operating profit over the medium term. So in progress -- so in summary, good progress, a resilient and diversified portfolio and a business that is extremely disciplined on the things that it can control. Our strategy is unchanged, and we remain firmly focused on execution to drive better returns for shareholders. And with that, I'd like to ask Justin to join me for question and answers.

Well, thank you for the presentation that was done there. That was a prerecorded presentation. Today, we've got Simon and Justin who are able to answer your questions live. [Operator Instructions] Now moving to the questions that have been submitted so far. First question that we've got for Simon and Justin is, how is the order book now? And are there any signs that demand is beginning to improve?

Okay. Thank you, Scott. I'll start here and feel free, Justin, to chip in. The order book status is mixed in areas where we are exposed to new house build, as you would expect. But what we have been doing over the period is building a very healthy pipeline specification, certainly through commercial infrastructure and infrastructure generally. And we certainly have a growing order book in reference to our pivot towards Water Management. So overall, we're happy with the performance of the order book given the markets. And clearly, it is slightly more subdued in those areas that are more exposed to new house build.

And the next question is the share price doesn't seem to reflect the improvement in profitability yet. What are people missing? And what are you doing to help this?

Justin, do you want to take this one?

Yes, sure. Well, I guess the share price has had a pretty decent run ahead of the results announcement. It was up by about 30% in a month. And subsequent to that, I guess, we've maybe seen a little bit of profit taking from people that have taken short-term positions. So there's also the context of what's going on in the macro economy, which certainly does have an impact on U.K. cyclicals. Now having said that, we're really focused on what's under our control. And hopefully, you can see from the results in the presentation for the first half of the year that we're focusing on what we can -- well, we're focusing on the controllables and executing where we can. So we're just really focused on improving the business. And as we deliver -- continue delivering improved profitability, we'd expect that to be reflected in the share price over the medium term. So our real focus is on what we can do for the business and not so much on the day-to-day fluctuations of the share price.

Thank you, Justin. Lots of focus on operational efficiency. Are the easy cost wins done? Or are there still a significant opportunity to make the business more efficient?

Look, I think cost opportunities are never easy in the context of restructuring businesses. So that must be said. We've done an awful lot. I mean, we talked about the GBP 11 million worth of cost saving that is supporting our performance to the half year this year. Is there more to do? There's always more to do as far as I'm concerned. We will continually scan our network to make sure that we're absolutely operating at optimum and most efficient. So I do expect opportunities to arise as we travel through. And we need to look at that in the context of what's happening in the markets that we operate. So we do expect to continue to scan the network and make sure that we're absolutely operating at our optimum. And if we see an opportunity to make ourselves more efficient, then we will do so. What I will say in terms of cost, that's not always about restructuring the network. There are other areas that we look at in terms of what we're doing up and down the supply chain. But yes, we will continue to look at those opportunities.

I'll just add something to that one on this occasion. So we're running -- as a business, we are running with significant surplus capacity. And volumes across our end markets are significantly lower than they were four years ago. And we are taking a conscious decision that we will run with that surplus capacity certainly for some time because we see the benefits of being able to bring that capacity back online when our end markets recover. If we thought there was a more structural reduction in demand, then that may necessitate a different approach to the cost base. But we don't think that's the right answer at the moment. And as Simon said, we'll focus on seeking efficiencies across our network rather than something which is more significant. But in the event that, that did come to pass, then we would take a very different look at the way we're organized and the amount of capacity that we have.

Thank you. A question on a similar vein here, but how much of the margin improvement is structural and therefore sustainable versus benefits of one-off actions that won't repeat next year?

So the GBP 11 million of savings that we've talked about is -- of which GBP 3 million was delivered in 2024 (sic) [ 2025 ] and the balance of 8 will be delivered this year. That is all structural. So that feeds through in perpetuity.

Thank you. Now on to housebuilding. A couple of questions, which I'll just answer both of them, ask them both at the same time. What are your views on the new leader and the impact that he may have on housebuilding and also mixed views on the housing market in the press, what's your view?