Marston's PLC (MARS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everybody. Thank you for taking the time to join us. Marston's Interim Results for financial year '25. My name is Justin Platt. I'm the Chief Exec. And with me is Hayleigh, who you all know, is our CFO. To take you through the results today, we'll do the following running order. I'll touch on the headlines, hand over to Hayleigh, she will give you the details of the financials. And then I'll come back to give a bit of color on the progress we're making on the strategy we outlined in October, and then we'll pull it all together and give some time for questions. So a really good first half for us, a first half when we're really seeing the results now of the strategy being implemented. Good like-for-like revenue growth at 2.9% year-to-date. Importantly, we're converting that. So despite the headwinds, we've grown our margins, so the EBITDA is at GBP 86 million, which is 14% up year-on-year. And really, that's about the progress we are making with the strategy, whether it be driving the operating model and the execution of the operating model, the progress we're making on our new formats, but also increasingly, the opportunity that we're seeking to unlock on digital transformation. All these things are starting to get momentum now and the benefits are starting to accrue. And we only really see the results from all of that work starting to accelerate. And for that reason, we're feeling very confident in our outlook for the year. I'm very committed to the targets we laid out. We're very much -- hopefully, you'll see today, we're very much now in delivery mode. And the early signs on that delivery are good. Hence, we're feeling very good about the outlook. So that's the headlines. I'll hand over to Hayleigh, and she'll take you through the financials.

Thanks, Justin. Good morning, everybody. I'll take you through for the next few minutes, the financial performance for H1. So if we start off with the highlights then. Total revenue of GBP 427 million, which is flat year-on-year because it includes the impact of the disposal program versus last year. More importantly, the graph on the right-hand side shows you like-for-like sales performance where you can see there's been growth in each of the quarters and particularly in the last 5 weeks. Accommodated and a like-for-like sales growth of 2.9% over the 31 weeks. Coupled with our cost efficiency program, you can see that EBITDA is nearly GBP 86 million, as Justin said, 14% growth year-on-year, and EBITDA margin to 20.1%, which is nearly 250 basis points improvement year-on-year. And I'll come back to that shortly. I've got a graph to show you some of the details. An underlying PBT of GBP 19 million, which is significant growth on the previous year, with recurring free cash flow at GBP 6 million for H1, which has the impact of working capital and timing adjustment, which we expect to unwind in H2, but more importantly, the extra GBP 9 million to GBP 10 million of CapEx on change in our format as set out at the Capital Markets Day. So within that, we've got interest cost reduction from the sale of CMBC and the contribution to the pension, as we previously set out. So this gives us confidence in achieving the GBP 50 million of recurring free cash flow in the near to medium term as set out in October at the Capital Markets Day. And as a reminder, that near to medium term was sort 12 months to 2 years. So good progress so far. So H1 performance gives us that confidence in the full year outlook. I already talked about EBITDA margin growth. Pub operating profit growth of 20% increase to GBP 63.3 million in the period. Savings and interest and that profit before tax of GBP 19 million versus a small loss in the prior year. And an earnings per share of 2.2p in H1. And as I've said, we're focused on our targets from the Capital Markets Day. So margin expansion is one of them, that 200 to 300 basis points of the medium term and our disciplined execution in H1 to deliver this. So H1 last year, 17.6%. We all know that April last year, National Living minimum wage went up by 9.8%. And what you can see is we've laid out as our productivity initiatives and the gains that we're going to get for the remainder of the year starting to offset some of that. Savings in energy costs predominantly down to the rate and on purchasing power year-on-year. But generally, across all of our P&L focused on making sure that we have tight cost control to deliver further efficiencies therein 0.4%. But the margin benefit isn't just from cost efficiencies, you can see there, 1.2% from revenue growth initiatives and Justin will talk to you shortly around what we've done on strategy and what's driving that, which delivers the 20.1% in H1, that 250 basis points improvement. But as we move into the second half, as we know, profitability from Marston's is around more weighted to H2, 60% of it come in more in H2 than H1, with National Insurance and National Minimum Wage increasing from April just gone, we fully expect to offset that this year with our productivity gains. We already know what our food and drink costs are for the remainder of this year, and we've got pretty good cost control across our P&L. So therefore, on track to deliver the 25% EBITDA margin in line with market expectations. From the profit growth, that's led to an underlying cash flow performance that remained strong, again, a reminder of that H1 to H2. Last year, we did GBP 7 million of recurring free cash flow, increased profitability, savings and interest, reduction in pension, but we're able to spend a further GBP 9 million on the strategic CapEx related to the formats that Justin will take you through shortly, and then I've already touched on working capital, which means we ended up around GBP 6 million of recurring free cash flow. Broadly similar to last year. For the full year, in FY '24, we delivered GBP 44 million of recurring free cash flow. So we expect and we are confident in achieving that GBP 50 million in the near term. Clearly, all of that cash has helped us to invest in pubs, but also continue to delever. But the balance sheet is also supported by GBP 2.1 billion of property assets, which is 83% freehold. And as a reminder, we have a revaluation in H2, not in H1, profits moving in the right direction. We've had the sale of CMBC, which means net debt has reduced overall year-on-year to GBP 881 million, meaning that net asset value per share has moved up 13% to GBP 1.7 billion. And on debt, what we've got is clearly a long-term stable position. So we have the securitization of GBP 540 million. That is out to 2035. It has a liquidity facility that we've not utilized, so plenty of headroom there. We've got the long-term leases from a sale and leaseback point of view, but also the IFRS 16 leases. And then within Q2, we extended our bank facility from July '26 out to July '27. And at H1, that was GBP 40 million drawn. And as you can see from the graph on the right-hand side, leverage has continued to reduce over a number of years. And we are now at pre-IFRS 16, leverage below 5x. So long-term debt stable position, and we continue on that leverage reduction program as set out at the Capital Markets Day and our capital allocation investing in pubs, reducing debt as the first 2. So in summary, H1 performance has been really strong. It gives us that confidence on the full year outlook that we've set out today. Trading has been strong in H1 up to 31 weeks, sustained like-for-like revenue growth. Our focus on costs and productivity in labor and across our P&L, meaning that we've delivered margin improvement and efficiency gains, but also underpinned by some of the revenue initiatives that we've set out today. And that has led to an improvement in cash in terms of being able to reinvest in the business and long-term strategy alongside deleveraging. So on track to deliver FY '25 performance in line with market expectations. I'm going to hand back to Justin. He's going to give you a little bit more color and flavor on how we've done that and what's to come.

Thank you, Hayleigh. So October, we outlined a strategic refocus. As I said earlier, very much now in delivery mode. So what I'll do on the next few slides is just give you some evidence of what exactly we've been doing and how that's contributing to the results we're now seeing. You will remember, we set out to be a high margin highly cash-generative local pub business, and we will do that by driving growth from 5 key value drivers. So by executing a market-leading operating model, it's the bread and butter of running a pub, using CapEx to create differentiated formats, complementing what we do with some digital transformation, continuing to expand our successful managed and partnership models and, in time, leveraging the synergies we create in targeting acquisitions. So I'll spend a bit of time now on the first 3 of those and things we've been doing in the last 6 months to drive value. So first of all, on the operating model, of course, the operating model is the balance between getting it right between driving revenue, efficient management of cost; whilst at the same time, ensuring you drive guest satisfaction such that people have a great time when they come and visit your pubs. So first of all, in terms of revenue, as we said earlier, good like-for-like momentum ahead of the market. Partly, that's about capitalizing on those big trading days. So we had a record Christmas Day and a record Mother's Day. But you can't just rely on those big trading days. You've got to give people a reason to come and visit your pub all around the year. And that's the reason we've been focused on building these consumer-driven events that give people a reason to come. And these have proven really, really popular. We deliberately set them to work across different demographics. So the example there on the chart, the darts event where we partnered with the world #1, Luke Humphries, this worked really well for our local pubs and our local sports pub, an event that ran for 2 months. With a different story and different reasons to come every week around that, proved really, really popular and supported us through the winter months on a reason to come for the darts. Equally, we had a partnership with the filmmakers of Paddington in Peru, and we run a Paddington event in our family-based pubs with Paddington theme menu, Paddington events for families. So deliberately working across different demographics to give people a reason to come. Proving really popular with our guests, but also proving really popular with our general managers because it allows them to drive some interest in their local. So working really well, and you'll see more of that to come in the second half. So a good picture on revenue. As you know, we've worked very hard on cost. Hayleigh said earlier about what that looked like in terms of numbers. Initiative-wise, you would expect it works across labor, it works across food and drink, but also energy and estates. Labor particularly are variable labor, is probably front and center of our efforts on this in the last 6 months. Done an awful lot of work on our labor scheduling. Some of the technology that supports our labor scheduling with our teams. The example on the right there is that's one of our people at the right time from their labor scheduling tools. And there's the capability now that within a shift, the GM can act, use the data, use the tools in order to adjust labor. And that's really helping us on the productivity. So good strides on labor scheduling, a constant journey for us though, always looking to improve that. Food and drink, the formats here are helping us because we're being really clear now that we've got 5 formats; of course, that drives what your product range should be. So your product range with food and drink looks quite different in a family pub than it would look in a sports pub, and that's allowing us to be really clear and really simple in what product range we offer in each of those, and that then drives efficiencies. So of course, we're always rigorous in our approach to the input cost. But really, our overall strategy on product offer helps in terms of management and cost. Fixed price, electricity contracts help us on energy. But I think the crucial one there is on the estates. Again, as we start to spend more investment CapEx and we look at our investment CapEx that gets us more efficient on reactive maintenance. So we're spending less on reactive maintenance because we're being more forthright and more ahead of the game on investment capital. So doing well on revenue, really good progress on cost. But importantly, our guests still want to come and see us and enjoy us when they do. You will remember there's a high correlation. Once you're up in the high 700s of reputation, there's a high correlation to sustained revenue growth. So we've been able to grow versus the same period last year to 800 and a whole raft of an issues on this. I mean, look, this is simply about are your guests having a good time when they come? Do they want to come back and visit you? So we continue to agitate with our menus. We should continue to work really hard on our menus. We've partnered with Tom Sheppard, a Michelin-starred chef, on the best-ever pub pie. That helps us from a news point of view. It gives people a reason to come and visit, but also helps our food scores and helps people satisfaction with the visit they get. The order-at-table service, which I'll come on to at the moment is improving the way we deliver. But really, the biggest driver of reputation is always about the local general manager and the extent to which that local general manager is creating a great atmosphere and giving great service. And our job is to do that consistently across 1,300 or so pubs. And so constantly, relentlessly what the operational team are focused on is ensuring we find lots and lots of different ways of doing that and doing that consistently. So far, we've got that really right and balancing that well with revenue and cost. So good progress on the operating model, that was value driver one. But you'll remember value driver two about the formats was something we talked a lot about at the Capital Markets Day. If anything, this has gone a bit quicker than I anticipated and a bit smoother than I anticipated. So the picture on the left is the first one we launched. So back in February, we opened The Glassworks. The Glassworks is in Stourbridge to the west of Birmingham. And since then, we've done another 17 so far. So 18 of the new types of format so far this year, really strong results. So revenue improvement of new pub versus old pub across those 18, revenue is up more than 30%. Guest feedback is really strong, too. So in our best performing ones, that reputation score rather than being 800 across the state, the estate is north of 850. Really good from a revenue point of view, really good from a satisfaction point of view. It is worth saying it's still early days. Some of these have been open 3 or 4 weeks. Some of them have been open a couple of months. So we need that to settle before we can be clear what the extent of the return is, but early signs are very good. You'll remember we talked to 5 formats. The locals pubs and the adult dining that we refer to as signature pubs are largely already out there. The 3 on the chart that you can see now are the ones that are, if you like, new. And they're the ones that we're focused on delivering new ones this year. We will launch across each of these this year. So, so far, the Two Door is dominated, but during the rest of this year, we will also have Grandstand, which is the local sports pub and Woodie's, which is the family pub. So we will have launches across all of them. That to our point about test and learn will allow us to read how effective each of them are being? How they are in terms of driving returns? And crucially, that then guides decisions for future years about where we may choose to spend that precious CapEx. But so far, so good in terms of that rollout. So of the 30 this year, that we will do this year, probably about 2/3 will be on Two Door. And that's because Two Door is the one that we've got the most conviction of at the early stage that it will deliver. So I thought I'll just give you a little bit of color on what that Two Door launch looks like on the next slide. So let me take you to Bradford. The Flying Squirrel opened just outside Bradford in the middle of April. There's about 250,000 people live within a 3-mile radius of The Flying Squirrel. And prior to this conversion, we were only able to access 40% of that market because it was largely a family dining pub. The opportunity that we identified was that if we could find a way of appealing to an adult drinker audience as well as a family eating audience that we could double our appeal from 40% of that audience to 80% of that audience. And the simple way to do that is to zone the pub, so it appeals to both demographics concurrently. So that's about building a wall down the middle, creating a great environment that families want to eat on one side and a great environment like with a pool table and a dartboard that adults want to come and drink on the other side. We don't need to spend too much capital on that, approximately GBP 250,000 a time. It varies. Some pubs at a bit more than that, some pubs a bit less. But if you can do that, that's the way you can access both audiences. And that's the reason Two Door so far is showing really good signs for us. It really is two pubs in one. You're able to offer both propositions concurrently to both audiences and deliver for the needs of what they want. I mean, really, it's not too dissimilar to the old-fashioned lounge side and tap side of a pub, but it works. So really positive progress on the formats. We're really pleased with how that's going. More to come on to this year. And at that point, we'll then be in a clearer position to outline how we think we should be investing further in Two Door Grandston family. The third one that I said I would touch on is digital transformation. So we launched our new order-and-pay platform in late March. This is a much slicker, much cleaner, much more customer-friendly platform to drive order from your table. It can make a big difference in terms of upsell but also in time, the opportunities for us for data capture are very, very important because obviously, we can build that into our marketing programs. Really pleasing so far. So far, it's about 750 of our pubs have got it. So we're in the process of rolling it out and driving adoption through our teams. As you would expect, we've got high hopes for this for the summer. We've got really good beer garden space. Not having to come all the way in from the beer garden to the bar and being able to order at your table, can make a significant difference, as I say, both from a service point of view and from an upsell point of view. And our data to date proves that guests using the app are spending 10% more than guests ordering at the bar. So it's very early days on this, but it is one that we think will start to get benefits from this year, and we'll then really capitalize on it in time. So that was value driver 3 in terms of progress on digital transformation. So all of those together leave us feeling good about the rest of the year. From the revenue side, we've got a lot of conviction we can continue to drive demand to build that revenue growth. So the events that we've talked about, and there are some examples of it around the room in here, there'll be more of that to come. We've just agreed a partnership with Hasbro, so we'll be doing a big activation on trivial pursuits in the second half of the year and a number of other demand-driving events through half 2 to give people a reason to come and visit our pubs. We think that will complement us in terms of our outdoor spaces. Our outdoor spaces in this weather, as you know, are very popular. So that gives us big hopes for the summer as well. As I've just touched on, we really think order and play can play an important role. On the right-hand side, a lot of confidence in our cost management. It's the same areas I talked about before. We're really clear we can deliver on those cost management commitments as this is a step up in the second half with National Insurance, et cetera. So great opportunity on revenue, very confident in cost, leaves us feeling good about H2. So in summary, strong H1 performance, encouraged about the full year outlook. We're getting real momentum now on the value drivers. Hence, we're confident in our delivery. And I'd just emphasize, we are very much now in delivery and execution mode. We're very much now about getting the results for the strategies we've put in place and so far, so good. Thank you very much and take as much time as you like for questions.

Douglas Jack at Peel Hunt. I've got 3 questions. What's the timing in terms of rolling out and completing the rolling out of labor scheduling, and the order-and-pay app? And on that basis, how far we can look into the future in terms of the benefits from the current process on that? Then the second one was, the working capital outflow, is that likely to reverse in the second half? And then the third one is, how far into the future are you hedged on electricity and gas?

Okay. Thank you, Doug. I'll take the first one, Hayleigh, and then you take the next 2. The order-and-pay app will be pretty much rolled out in the coming weeks. Certainly, everybody will have it by the end of the financial year. And really, that's about the adoption that we can drive with gas, and we'll do a lot of merchandising of it in pub as well. But certainly expect to see benefits of that this year. Likewise, on labor schedule. I mean, labor schedule, everybody's already got. It's just our new improved version of it that will help. But that's pretty much there now. The ones who haven't got the new improved version will have it by the start of June. So essentially, it will be in for summer.

Working capital, as I've said, Doug, we'd expect a large reversal in H2. So broadly neutral for the full year position. Electricity and gas, we are hedged for all of this financial year, as it stands today.

Fintan Ryan here from Goodbody. Two questions for me, please. Firstly, in terms of the inflation outlook for FY '26, I appreciate FY '25 is pretty much locked in, but we are seeing a pickup in inflation around some of the primary meats. What would you be -- what would you have budgeted in at this point in time for inflation in FY '26? I guess, related to that as well, how much pricing was in the H1 like-for-like number? And like what additional pricing have you taken already to offset the labor cost inflation for H2?

So in terms of inflation for FY '26, look, I think we need to see, and we'll give more guidance at the prelims. But at the minute, there's some variability in some contracts, but we are still committed, Fintan, to 200 to 300 basis points over that time, and we wouldn't be saying that if we didn't think we could manage some of those costs. Do you want to take pricing?

Yes. And in terms of pricing, the first half is a mix of value and volume, slightly more value than volume, but it is both. And then within that, as you'd expect in half 1, given the climate, food volume is stronger than drink volume at that time, but it is a mix of value and volume. But the thing I would stress in terms of that value is, as you know, we don't think of it in terms of blanket price increases. It's about revenue per guest overall. So that's the way we might optimize menus or the upgrade from -- to premium drinks, et cetera, et cetera. But fundamentally, it's a mix of value and volume.

Caroline Gulliver from Equity Development. You mentioned in the presentation that the local pub manager was like really important for overall satisfaction. And you've obviously seen that really nice increase to 800 in overall customer satisfaction. Could you just talk a little bit about how you're training your pub managers and their staff with the new events, the new pub style formats? Are you taking people who already work in the firm to run the new pubs as they're opening and so forth? Just a little bit, how would you categorize the overall employment market as well?

Yes. I mean, you make a very good point. Bluntly, what we do we're a smaller cog in a much bigger and more important wheel. Whether this business is successful or not is based on how good are GMs are running their local pubs. That's where we drive revenue. That's where we manage costs. That's where we deliver good experiences. So we invest an awful lot of time and money in training our general managers, their teams and within that their chefs. So an awful lot of work to do that. And we have started to introduce -- the nature of the new strategies we've introduced quite a lot of change. These events are new. These formats over the time are new, and they're still relatively embryonic across the whole estate, but they're new. And whilst we've used digital technology before, our emphasis on it is greater than before. So we've not underestimated that. That was one of the reasons when we did the restructure is we brought in a single Chief Operating Officer to drive that capability and that commitment across the whole group. What's great, though, is the enthusiasm in the business for it. You can imagine if you're running a darts event with Luke Humphries, imagine the buzz you get internally amongst the GMs. And not all the pubs did it. And then some of the ones who didn't do it wanted to do it. And then likewise, the vibe that's going around already about the Two Door pubs because the GMs talk to one another, they're now on the phone saying, well, can I be a Two Door pub. So that is really, really important. In the FT survey, we were voted best pub employer. So a big focus for us, very, very important. And employment market terms, remember, we're in the heart of our community, so a lot of our employees tend to live locally to the pub. So we're in good shape in employment terms.

Charlie Pullan from HSBC. Just a few questions. Just wondering if you expect the difference between like-for-like growth and total revenue growth to persist for the full year from H1? And secondly, just broadly on the FY '25 outlook, are there any timing considerations, phasings or comps to consider for 2025 like-for-like growth?

So clearly, Charlie, in terms of like-for-like, consensus is sort of that 3% to 3.5% revenue growth for the full year. Total revenue growth is less than that because of the impact of disposals. So we'd expect it to be that sort of level by the time we get to the full year. Should I take the second question on phasing? I think there's only the euros last July, but as you can clearly see today what was set out around event driving some things to offset that. There isn't really a movement like Easter and Mother's Day in H1.

I think the important thing to say about the H1, H2 is the comp. So last year's H1 was up 7.3%, whereas H2 was up 2.7%.

Anna Barnfather from Panmure Liberum. A couple of questions. Just on the sort of second half, you mentioned that you expect to fully mitigate the labor costs. Does that mean you expect margin progression in the second half?

So for the full year, we've got margin progression.

Okay. So not necessarily...

It's the same again in H2, yes.

And the second thing was just on the sort of CapEx. I think you're sort of guiding GBP 60 million of CapEx this year. And there's a bit of disposal proceeds to come in? Is there a figure for full year disposal pricing?

No, because I mean, I guess we haven't got a huge disposal program. The GBP 4.5 million was the hangover from the GBP 50 million last year that came in, in October. I mean, clearly, there's always 1 or 2 here, but nothing in the way you would say is material.

Okay. And then just final question, just picking back up on the sort of price/volume/value mix. I know it's very difficult to strip out when you've completely -- and renewed the menu and changed it. But what is your sort of strategy? I mean, given April's hike in labor costs? Are you trying to sort of tally that with your price increases? Or just I'm trying to draw out a specific figure on pricing.

I understand. Look, what we certainly don't do is a linear relationship between, oh well, look, labor cost is going up by X and therefore price needs to go by Y. That is just not how we approach it. We approach the margin in totality where we'll look at the top line as well as the cost element. But if I focus on the top line to answer your question, we literally think about it about how -- first of all, how do we ensure we drive value for our guests. That's the most important thing, the mix of both the experience and then the price charged. But then the way we look at that value is we look at it in terms of revenue per guest. So if there's an opportunity to premiumize from 1 lager to a higher-priced lager. That's something we prioritize. If we can look to upsell from 1 drink to 2 drinks; likewise, you can imagine how we do that in food menu terms. We're clear about the extent to which we use discounts. So we'll use discounts and offers in off-peak, but not in peak. And, therefore, one of the ways in which we can drive value is by being a lot more disciplined about not giving those discounts away at the wrong time. So there's a whole raft of -- price laddering is another one where if we've got 6 lagers on the bar, the levels you've got between your prices on all of them. So when I don't answer the question about like lead prices because we don't really think of it like that. We do a whole raft of initiatives, but fundamentally, what it's attempting to do is drive revenue per guest.

And just final question on the events. What would you say the take-up in percentage terms of the events has been?

I can't give you a percentage figure because it varies massively by pub. But what I can tell you is the interest in it is incredible. You get a lot of local PR. So it gets the pub in the local paper as well as a little bit of national PR. So it creates that interest and it gives people a reason to go in. And really, the uptake strengthens according to how much the local pub then gets behind it. And I think over time, back to the question earlier about the GMs, over time, the more we execute these events, the more the team get behind them and the more they will increase. So, so far, they've gone way better than I thought they would.

Greg Johnson, Shore Capital. A couple of questions. Firstly, just picking up on previous couple and pricing. How do you think your value proposition has developed versus the peers in recent times, say not just price, but in terms of the offering? Secondly, just thinking about the order and pay, the 10% uplift. In those pubs it is in -- what proportion of total transactions is it now? And thirdly, just given the sort of ongoing deleveraging, have you thought further about refinancing the securitization at some point?

Okay. Thanks, Greg. I'll take the first 2, Hayleigh will take the last one. So in terms of order and pay, between 10% and 20% of transactions is where we'd expect to get to this year. Some of our best pubs are doing better than that and some of our pubs who were early adopters are in single figures. But that's within the first year. We think there's real opportunity within the best pubs. What was your question about price, Greg?

The value proposition.

Sorry. I think the best example of the value proposition is the reputation score. That 800 is top of the industry of all the pubcos in the study, that reputation, which, of course, measure price impacts in terms of value. So again, I don't think of it in terms of what Pub X charges for a part of Carlsberg versus what Pub Y does. It's about value for the overall experience and that reputation score is our best measure. And then on finance...

So refinancing, as we said at the Capital Markets Day, we're 6 months into this. We've got a capital allocation framework that says invest in pubs, and you can see we're doing that today, continue to delever, keep an eye on the market, market conditions are good. But we're sticking to that, and we'll just keep it under review.

Thank you very much, everybody, for your time, and we'll see you all again soon. Thank you.