Maruti Suzuki India Limited (MARUTI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Q4 FY '24 Earnings Conference Call of Maruti Suzuki India Limited. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Pranav Ambaprasad. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Thank you, Ria. Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon once again. Welcome you all to the Q4 FY '24 earnings call. May I introduce you to the management team from Maruti Suzuki. Today, we have with us our Chief Investor Relations Officer, Mr. Rahul Bharti; and CFO, Mr. Arnab Roy. Before we begin, may I remind you of the safe harbor. We may be making some forward-looking statements that have to be understood in conjunction with the uncertainty and the risks that the company faces. I also like to inform you that the call is being recorded and the audio recording and the transcript will be available at our website. You may please note that in case of any inadvertent error during this live audio call, a transcript will be provided with the corrected information. The con call will begin with a brief statement on the performance and outlook of our business by Chief Investor Relations Officer, Mr. Rahul Bharti, after which, we'll be happy to receive your questions. I would now like to invite our CIRO, Mr. Rahul Bharti. Over to you, sir.

Thanks, Pranav. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us. Today, I'll share some overview of the industry sales performance, followed by the business performance of the company. The passenger vehicle industry for the first time crossed the 4 million sales milestone in financial year '23, '24. And consequently, India maintained its position as the third largest PV market in the world. The PV market grew by 8.4% year-on-year in the year, '23-'24, on the back of new SUV launches and improved semiconductor availability. However, this year, the growth was lower than that of last year of 26.7%, owing to the tapering of pent-up demand. Since the last 3, 4 years, there has been a steep shift in consumer preference towards SUVs. The trend continued in '23-'24 as well, with SUVs contributing to over 50% of the market. Much of the growth in PV market was contributed by SUVs. The demand for Multipurpose Utility Vehicles also continue to remain good. However, the share of Hatchback segment continued to shrink. In '23-'24, the share has reduced to 27% from a high of 46% in '18-'19. This is also reflected in terms of the declining share of first-time buyers in '23-'24. In terms of powertrain mix, the better availability of CNG vehicles, coupled with increase in CNG infrastructure, helped improve demand for CNG vehicles. The share of CNG vehicles in the industry further expanded to about 15% in the year '23-'24 compared to 10.4% in '22-'23. Hybrid vehicles have seen a good traction, and now the share of hybrid vehicles has increased to about 2%. EV penetration was also at about 2%. Let me now share some of the business highlights of the company. In financial year '23, '24, the company could achieve several significant milestones. The company crossed the cumulative production milestone of 30 million units since its inception. The company's overall sales volume surpassed 2 million units in this year. The company is first among the PV manufacturers in India to achieve this feat. During '23-'24, the company recorded its highest ever annual sales of 2,135,323 vehicles, which includes highest ever export 283,067 vehicles. The company continued to be the top exporter of passenger vehicles in India for the third consecutive year. Interestingly, while the export from the rest of the industry declined by nearly 4% over the previous year, the company could increase its export by about 10%. In '23-'24, aided by new SUV launches, the company could grow faster than the industry. France SUV has set a new benchmark in the passenger vehicle category by becoming the only new model launch to clock 1 lakh sales in 10 months. Besides, Grand Vitara became the fastest mid-SUV to clock the 1 lakh sales milestone. The sales of CNG vehicles increased to over 480,000 units in the year, clocking a growth of about 50% over the previous year. The intelligent electric hybrid technology offered in flagship products such as Grand Vitara and Invicto, received excellent response from consumers. Overall, the customer preference towards green vehicles increased significantly during the year. The share of sales from green vehicles comprising CNG vehicles, smart hybrids and strong hybrids, increased to 42% from 37% the previous year. On sustainability initiatives, the company increased its captive solar power generation capacity from 26.3 megawatts in '22-'23 to 43.2 megawatts in '23-'24 and is on course to achieve its target of 48 megawatts by '24-'25. In the year '23-'24, the company achieved a milestone of highest ever dispatches by railways of about 450,000 vehicles. With this, the penetration of dispatches through rail mode in overall dispatches has increased to 21.5% from 17.6% in '22-'23. Also, the company commissioned India's first automobile in-plant railway siding at its Gujarat plant. The company in its growth strategy, Maruti Suzuki 3.0, aims to produce 4 million vehicles a year by 2031, almost double from current levels. On the other hand, given the carbon neutrality requirement, several powertrain technologies, like EVs, hybrid, CNG, ethanol, et cetera, will coexist for a reasonably long period of time. Managing this scale and complexity of production with multiple powertrains under different managements would pose several challenges. Greenfield project in Kharkhoda, Haryana is also a part of the company's ambitious growth plan. Construction is already in progress at Kharkhoda. And the first plant with annual production capacity of 250,000 units is on course to be operational in 2025. The company has space to set up 4 such plants with total capacity of 1 million units in Kharkhoda. Recently in the Vibrant Gujarat Summit 2024, the company signed an MOU with the government of Gujarat to set up a new automobile manufacturing facility, a greenfield facility. This is subject to availability of suitable land and other parameters. The annual production capacity expected to become 1 million units, with a total investment amount of about INR 35,000 crores or INR 350 billion. After finalization of land and due approval from MSIL's board, the exact location of the plant will be shared in due course. Coming to the financial results in the quarter and the financial year, the company recorded its highest ever quarterly performance in all the 5 parameters, that is overall sales, domestic sales, exports, net sales and net profit. The company sold a total of 584,031 vehicles during the quarter, higher by 13.4% compared to the same period previous year. In the quarter, the sales volume in the domestic market stood at 505,291 units, up by 12.2% over that in quarter 4 '23-'24. The sales volume in the export market was at 78,740 units, a growth of 21.7% over exports of 64,719 units in quarter 4 '22-'23. During the quarter, the company registered net sales of INR 366,975 million against INR 308,218 million in the same period of the previous year. Net profit for the quarter was at INR 38,778 million, an increase of 47.8% over INR 26,236 million in quarter 4 '22-'23. This was on account of higher sales volume, favorable commodity prices, cost reduction efforts and higher nonoperating income. And since investors look for the sequential comparison also, I'll share. The overall sales volume grew by 16.5% quarter-on-quarter. And the net sales grew slightly lower by 15.2% quarter-on-quarter owing to mix and reduced CNG volumes due to supply shortage of a particular component. The share of CNG in domestic sales also reduced sequentially to 26.9% in quarter 4 from 30.8% in quarter 3. Now the supply of the CNG component is getting normalized, and we don't see such a constraint going forward. The increase in quarter-on-quarter sales volume resulted in operating leverage benefits of approximately 140 basis points. The sales promotion has come down considerably from INR 23,300 per vehicle in quarter 3 to INR 14,500 per vehicle in quarter 4. However, it may be noted that the discounts are given on retail sales and a portion on wholesale in the books. So the difference in wholesale and retail sales makes quite a difference between actual discounts in the market and what has -- what reflects in the P&L. If we see the discount on retail sales basis, it's being almost the same at around INR 18,000 per vehicle. In quarter 4, the retail sales were 398,000 units, and lower than the wholesale by around 92,000 units. While in quarter 3, the retail sales were higher than wholesale by about 114,500 units. The impact of commodities and ForEx was largely neutral. Overall, the operating margin expanded from 9.9% to 10.8% sequentially in quarter 4. Coming to the highlights of the full year. The company sold a total of 2,135,323 vehicles during the year, a growth of 8.6% over that in '22-'23. Sales volume in the domestic market stood at 1,852,256 units and exports at 283,067 units. The company registered net sales of INR 1,349 billion. The figures are so big, it makes you pause -- INR 1,349 billion in '23-'24, a growth of 19.9% over the net sales of INR 1,125 billion in '22-'23. The company achieved a net profit of INR 132 billion approximately in '23-'24, 64% higher than the net profit of INR 80 billion approximately in '22-'23. The company was able to better its net profit on account of higher sales volume, favorable commodity prices, cost reduction efforts and higher nonoperating income. In full financial year also, the company recorded its highest ever annual performance in all the 5 parameters, and that is overall sales, domestic sales, exports, net sales and net profit. And finally, on dividend, the Board of Directors recommended the highest-ever dividend of INR 125 per share on a face value of INR 5 per share compared to INR 90 per share in '22-'23. And we are now ready to take your questions, feedback and any other observations that you may have. Before I close, there is a happy news for our investors. In terms of our Investor Relations, Maruti Suzuki has been awarded the #1 position globally among all car manufacturers for its annual integrated report by the League of American Communications Professionals. And of course, we will always -- would like to strive more and take your feedback along the way. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Yogesh Aggarwal from HSBC.

So just firstly, Rahul sir, I missed in your remarks. So there is a 140 basis point one-off in material cost.

Yogesh, could you speak louder, please?

So in your prepared remarks, you said 140 basis points of one-off impact in material cost. Is that correct? And what was it regarding?

See, we had many small one-offs that add up to about 60 basis points, spread all over on the expenses side. So some are in material costs, some are in some development kind of cost, which we took upfront. CSR had some lumpiness, et cetera. So they add up to about 60 basis points on the expenses side.

Okay. 60 basis points is the one-off?

About 60 basis points.

And anything related to plant inventory accretion, decretion? Anything related to that?

Plant inventory is normal.

Okay. The second thing was [Technical Difficulty]. Any outlook there? What can it be in FY '25-'26? And what is the profitability in exports? And thirdly, on safety, NCAP ratings, et cetera, any views on how are Maruti cars now doing versus competition because that has been one of the concerns, which keeps coming every now and then?

Okay. Is your first question on exports?

Sir, I was asking exports. Anything -- they've done so well? But anything on the outlook for this year? And what is the profitability like on exports?

On exports?

Yes.

Okay. I'm not sure I heard you right. But on exports, we did about 283,000 this year. Despite the fact that we've increased substantially over the usual 200,000 per year that we used to do, that's about 4 years ago, we wish to take it further in the future years. And next year, we should be doing about 300,000, fairly diversified across markets, across products. And in terms of profitability, it's always a mix, but it changes with many parameters, mostly ForEx rates, et cetera. So it's never stable. At the moment, it is perfectly fine. And your other question was on safety. Yes, we have -- I think one good thing that has happened in India is the Bharat NCAP. The reason it is good is because the government itself is trying to get into the process. So there is no private conflict of interest, and they are testing for safety standards above the minimum compliance levels. And let me mention to you the minimum compliance level is also very close to European standards. So Indian cars are at a good safety level. We have offered about 3 cars right in the first go to Bharat NCAP for testing, and we are waiting for the Star ratings results. It may come out any time now. And of course, we are extremely cautious. We have many safety features in our cars, which many times go beyond compliance what we think is important for the customer. And so -- and in most of the -- almost all new models starting almost 1 year ago, 6 airbags has been standard now. So safety levels are very good in these models.

Next question is from the line of Pramod Kumar from UBS.

Just a clarification, Rahul san. You said that all the one-offs right from the -- across all the expense line item add up to 60 basis points, right?

Approximately. Yes.

And you expect the [Technical Difficulty]. Ideally, it should mean that next quarter onwards, they should ideally roll back to normalized levels? So there should be a 60% -- everything remains same 60% should be the addition to the margins. Is that understanding right?

So these one-offs will not exist. But different margin drivers may exist for the next...

Yes, yes, that I absolutely understand. That I absolutely understand. And coming to the margin drivers, looks like CNG is a pretty significant margin driver because we have seen a fair bit of reversal in the ASP trends quarter-on-quarter. And even the gross margin trends have changed because -- correct me if I'm wrong, but there was no big adverse movement in the commodity basket quarter-on-quarter. Were they on the -- compared to third quarter?

No, no. Let me explain. The fact that we did less CNG in quarter 4 affected the ASP and the top line. We don't comment on segment-wise or product-wise margins. But we did have these one-offs, which should not happen next year. Of course, the other regular margin drivers like commodity, ForEx, operating leverage, all those will have their bearing on whatever next year financials come.

And Rahul san, now that the CNG, you said the component supply chain disruption has been dissolved. Where should we look at the penetration in 1Q? Because the retail penetration continues to keep going higher and higher. So I'm just trying to understand, should the CNG penetration pick up meaningfully for you at the wholesale level from 1Q? And where that number could be? And where would you see from an FY '25 perspective? Because you were at 27% for the full year, right, on the domestic dispatches. Where should one put that number for FY '25 given the improved supply chain. And also related to that, has the 100,000 capacity on SUVs for Ertiga and Brezza has gone live. And if yes, does that also improve your CNG penetration going forward?

Okay. And let me try to combine all the parameters. So CNG, this year, we did about 450,000. Next year, we are hoping to do something like 600,000 vehicles in '24, '25. And you're right, Ertiga is one major car that has a lot of CNG traction in the market. So the 100,000 capacity at Manesar largely addresses the Ertiga supply bottleneck. And you're right, a good part of the waitlist is on the Ertiga, about 30%.

30%. And Rahul san, like you commented on the third quarter for the fourth quarter profitability, given what all is playing out in terms of CNG ramp-up, and clearly the numbers this quarter show that CNG has a big bearing on the profitability as well and the ASP, as you highlighted. So how should one look at profitability going forward, sir, for FY '25? Because the volume growth will be muted to an extent of the industrial because of the base, and you will have hopefully, better growth. But how should one look at margins evolving from here on?

So margins are always a consequence of so many parameters, and we are all aware, we have commodity. So steel as of now is kind of -- I mean we really don't know. There are news that it will marginally go up in the next financial year. But the 2 commodities that we are slightly concerned about are copper and aluminum. Copper is about 1% of our net sales. Aluminum is about 3% of our net sales. Platinum, palladium, rhodium may slightly be more benign. So we don't know how it emerges and commodities, you can also watch in the market. Steel exposure is about 10% to 11% of net sales. Platinum, palladium, rhodium is about 2.5%. And ForEx this quarter has been neutral. But it may happen that next year -- of course, ForEx is anybody's guess. So next year, we have some exposure on -- we have about 3% direct exposure for import, 2.5% in yen, about 0.5% to dollar. And we have indirect, which happens with a lag of a quarter, about 4% on the yen and about 4.6% on the dollar, about 1.2% on euro. And you can watch the indices and decide for yourself. Operating leverage is one of the factors. We have to keep in mind that we've just increased capacity in Manesar by 100,000. And depending upon how the volume grows next year, it may have an impact on the margins.

Yes. So Rahul, san, thanks a lot for the minute details what you shared. Just some clarification on export profitability, sir. Given that a lot of these suppliers are through the Toyota Suzuki network. How does the pricing work? Is there a cost-plus formula, which works or do you decide the pricing at your end? How does the pricing and the margin mechanism hence work, sir?

So finally, it's a market. So we have to be competitive in that market, and we have to be better than our competition. We have to increase our volume. Sometimes when the commodity -- sorry, when the ForEx rates become benign, you get a windfall profit, sometimes even much more than domestic. It keeps on varying. The best strategy in exports is to diversify. So the good part is that Maruti exports to about 100 countries of the world across several products. And it's quite -- it's very common that one of the very high performing markets suddenly becomes 0 the next year. Algeria, for example, at one point of time, it was one of our top 5 markets. Suddenly it became 0 because of some government norm. Sri Lanka was a good market, suddenly. So these keep on changing. It's a long-term derisking strategy. And overall, the profits are also healthy.

But it's not a fixed cost plus formula, right? And that's what I'm trying to understand, is like there could be variability for various factors, but it's not like you just get a contract manufacturing margin on the exports?

So finally, it's a distributor -- it's the contract with a distributor. And based on that, we negotiate.

Next question is from the line of Raghunandhan N. L. from Nuvama Institutional Equities.

Congrats on the recognition that Investor Relations award. Sir, firstly, on CAFE norms, what would be the current position of Maruti on future CAFE norm changes? Can you provide some color as well?

Okay. So you're right, CAFE is one of the central regulations that determines our whole product strategy, our powertrain strategy and our overall approach towards decarbonization. Fortunately, in the first year of CAFE 2, which started in '22-'23, Maruti, in absolute terms, it's -- I think we are the best from whatever information is publicly available. We have the lowest CO2 emission. And we would like to maintain it this way. CAFE 3 discussion will also start with the government sometime. It will kick in from the year '27 because the current phase is 5 years. And we'll have -- it will be in discussion with the government, and there are multiple parameters that are being discussed. We'll keep sharing with you as we get more information.

For full year FY '24, can you share some color on the mix, first time replacement additional buyer? You alluded to the reduction in share in first time and how do you see that going forward?

The first-time buyer is between 40% to 43%. There are so many ways of collecting data. So there's a sense of approximation. The additional buyer is about 38% and the replacement buyer is about 20% to 22%.

And first time, how much was it last year? And given the expectation that rural will do well in FY '25, would you say that first time should see some recovery?

So as of now, we are not able to see any recovery in the first-time buyer, unfortunately. And it may -- and if you are talking about small cars, for example, at least this year and maybe next year, it will be difficult.

Understood, sir. And rural share continues to improve. So what would be the share here for FY '24?

So now the definitions are also kind of blurring. So rural, at this time, this year grew at a better rate than urban. But now the definitions are blurring. So we are talking about -- for example, we have now NEXA rural outlets. So until this year, it grew more than urban, slightly higher than urban.

Got it, sir. Just a last question. I mean Transport Ministry has been making positive statements on GST cut for hybrids. Would GST cut allow the company to become more aggressive on the hybrid strategy, especially for below 4-meter vehicle. Assuming GST cut, can hatchbacks be considered for hybrids? Or would you focus on hybrids irrespective of GST cut?

See, the hybrids are a very potent and consumer-friendly, environment-friendly technology for India, particularly when charging infrastructure is still very low. So -- and we are thankful to the government that they are thinking on these lines. We do not know the outcome because there are several ministries involved. We want to pursue this technology over the medium term. Of course, if the government does something for the consumer, we'll be very thankful and we'll welcome it. We have to stay committed to this technology anyway. And as a first priority, it lends itself slightly to bigger cars, which have more space under the bonnet to accommodate both the powertrains. But if volumes grow, innovation and R&D can happen and it can come to compact cars also.

Next question is from the line of Kapil Singh from Nomura.

Sir, just one question on the raw material sales. This quarter, we saw almost 140 basis points of drop in discounts. And we also raised prices by 50 basis points or thereabouts. And I think ForEx would also be favorable or it is not negative. So in that context, if you could help us understand why the raw material, the sales has actually increased slightly on a quarter-to-quarter basis?

I think if you look at from a quarter-to-quarter basis, it's a marginal increase by almost about from 74% to 74.2%. So it's only 20 bps. It's not very significant. And as Rahul said, there are a couple of one-offs, which are already there in that. So I think it's not very significant. Overall, the commodity outlook remain flat.

No, I understand that, sir, but your discount drop is quite significant, right? It's almost 140 basis points, and you took up pricing also by 50 basis points, sir. I mean there was a tailwind of nearly 200 basis points.

So Kapil, there was one phenomenon of mix also that affected the ASP. [Foreign Language] you're talking about raw material to sales percentage. So of course, there have been some one-offs, as we have mentioned. And commodity, also, we have to see how it affects us.

Okay. So was there an increase in commodities as well? Or this is mostly driven by mix?

Some commodities that we expected did not exactly come in line with that.

Okay. Sure. And one question was on how do you see the evolution of the market in terms of SUVs and other segments? Because if I look at SIAM definition of UV, it's almost sitting at 60%, right? So in the medium term, do you think this mix keeps on rising. And when you look at long-term target of 50% market share, is it contingent on recovery in small cars or do you think you can keep raising market share in SUVs also, which will help you get there?

See, okay, 2 questions. So I'll break it into 2 parts. First question is, do you see more increase in SUVs? Yes. Currently, the trend shows that SUVs' share may keep on increasing, at least for some more percentage points. How much? We don't know. It could be between 5% to 10%. But honestly, anybody's guess. The second is -- within this, I think SUVs, since they have very large wheels, they are larger, heavier vehicles. So they come at a cost of CO2. And what view does the government take on large SUVs is also to be seen, because it comes at a huge cost of CO2. The second part -- I missed your second question.

I was just asking in terms of your own ambition to achieve 50% market share, is it contingent on recovery in small car segment? Or even if SUV mix keeps on rising, your plans should be achievable?

See, we have to adapt ourselves to the new realities of the market. If more than 50% in SUVs -- if more than 50% of the cars in the market are SUVs, it has to find a similar share in our new model launches also. So we have to keep increasing the models in that segment. And that, of course, is a model development. And I mean it takes 4 years to develop a model. So there would be some lumpiness around it. So we have to give it that kind of time. We have to keep in mind that, currently, our market share in SUVs is just about 21%. So the incremental gains can be good if we launch more SUVs.

Sure. Sir, could you also talk about the growth in bookings and inquiry levels? And where is the current inventory? That's all from my side.

So high single digit is roughly the flavor, whether we talk about inquiries or bookings, immediate term. And I missed your other question.

Inventory -- inventory levels?

Inventory is broadly fine. We are about 1 month. It's about 136,000 units as at the end of the financial year. In fact -- yes, it's less than what it should be. So for the customer, if we have less inventory. And some particular color, some variant will not be available in the showroom, which is not a healthy situation. So in December, and obviously, the inventories are drained out and it becomes very, very lean. We would like to maintain at least a 1-month inventory in the dealerships.

Just a confirmatory point, I think what you need to remember is now with our higher volume, 1 month is approximately in the range of 150,000 to 160,000. So that should be the new normal for you to calibrate this.

Next question is from the line of Gunjan Prithyani from Bank of America.

I had a couple of follow-ups. Firstly, on this backlog on CNG, can you share what is the pending bookings on the CNG yet to be serviced?

So about 111,000 is our bookings for -- are the pending bookings as of the end of the quarter and a good part is that it is in the Ertiga.

Okay. And it's fair to assume that rest of the portfolio, there won't be much backlog now?

So our total pending bookings are about 200,000, and out of which 111,000 are on CNG.

Okay. Got it. And Rahul san, can you share the royalty number also if there is any meaningful change?

3.5%.

3.5%.

Okay. Okay. My second question is on the EV launch. If you can share the progress on that? And if there's any change to the time lines, especially in the backdrop that globally, there is certainly a change in the narrative where hybrids are being spoken a lot more favorably versus EV. So is there any change to our timelines? And even an extension to that, you did mention in your opening remarks that hybrid has seen good acceptance in your Grand Vitara portfolio as well. So what is holding us back from launching more -- extending hybrid to some of the other models also in the portfolio?

Okay. See, first, let me share a modern development lead time is about 4 years. So month-on-month, the responses to market change may not happen. Secondly, the work has started on the EV much, much earlier. So even if globally, there is a kind of a downward trend, that won't change our launch timing. So that continues as earlier. And on hybrids, yes, we would like to increase it in further models. Of course, it has to -- it's a complex equation where we calculate the CO2, the customer acceptance, the sales, the volume, the viability. And within all these variables, we try to maximize the new technology absorption. So of course, yes, we are quite positive about hybrids.

Okay. Got it. And lastly, just maybe this has been asked multiple times. I'm like still struggling to reconcile the margin because if I look at operating leverage, it's one -- roughly would give you about 140, 150 basis points sequentially. There will be about 140 basis points that you've seen from discounts. There is a drag that you mentioned of 60-basis-point one-off. But still, there is -- the difference is either mix -- is materially the mix been a drag in this quarter? Or is there something else to call out which would have been offsetting factor?

So sequentially, our operating EBIT, which is the right parameter to look at, considering that we buy from SMG and TKM also, we've improved from 9.9% to 10.8%. That's a 90-basis-point jump. Now operating leverage gave us a benefit of 140 basis points, overall sales promotion gave us 80 basis points. There was -- there were other factors of about 1.4 -- or 140 basis points negative. So net, we had 80 basis points. And of course, we have to keep in mind the one-offs that I spoke about across various heads, some in CSR, some in material, some development costs, there has been some cost provision that we had to keep for something. So those miscellaneous add up to about 60 basis points.

I would like to complement here on one point. If you look at it from a commodity perspective, although there are pluses and minuses. But as Rahul explained earlier, the weightage of steel is quite significant. And steel has gone up actually sequentially in the quarter by about 2%. So there is an impact of that about -- in the numbers as well, which you need to factor over and above what we are saying.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. And with this, we conclude today's conference call. On behalf of Maruti Suzuki India Limited, we thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.

Thank you.