Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 29, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Brian Fitzgerald
analystGreat. We can jump right in. It's Brian Fitzgerald from Wells Fargo's Internet research team. We're very happy to have with us Gary Swidler, CFO of Match. Gary, thanks for being with us.
Gary Swidler
executiveThanks for having me. I think this thing is a tease. You can't get outside in this really nice weather.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystI know. I want to start with a couple of questions at the top of funnel on Tinder, the user base, the top-of-funnel trends there. You've approached stabilization over the summer. But zooming out, what are the puts and takes there in terms of what you're dealing with postpandemic? Any shifts in user behavior, attitudes? What's key to what's going on at the top of funnel for Tinder?
Gary Swidler
executiveYes. I would say overall, we made good progress on top of funnel from February to the end of June. Marketing campaign, I think, was really resonating and some of the work that the Tinder team have been doing on product was helping. And that is an area that needs a lot of attention. We need to get the top of the funnel back to a reasonable level of growth, and that's the #1 job at Tinder to make that happen. It's got to happen through a combination of marketing and product. At the end of the day, this is a product-driven company. Marketing can help, but product really needs to drive it. And we need to see product innovation which we can market, which people can talk about virally. And we can kind of get this flywheel of virality and marketing and product excitement going again at Tinder. And I think we have the resources and the focus to do it. We just have to kind of keep working at it. And we've made good strides over the course of this year with the new team at Tinder, firing on all cylinders with marketing improvement, with product execution, velocity improvement. So we're making progress. We've seen a bit of a step back since the middle of the summer as we pulled back a little bit of marketing spend in kind of the quieter July, August time frame. And so that's kind of slowly bouncing back. And we've got a lot of product stuff going on at Tinder here at the end of the year, UI/UX refresh. We're going to market pretty aggressively at the end of this year and into next year. So the momentum just has to keep building. The other thing I would point out is that you asked about changes in behavior. I do think that Gen Z is different. They have different focuses. They have different approaches to socializing and dating. They tend to date more like -- or hang out in groups and have groups of friends, and sometimes date one of their friends for a little while. They don't really like the label dating. So I think dating apps are still a bit more of a struggle for them, and we need to meet them where they are. We need to adjust our products to try to satisfy Gen Z a little better. When you look at the 2 key areas of initiatives for Tinder as we make the turn into '24, satisfying the next generation of daters, Gen Z, if you want to call them that, and satisfying women are the 2 key things. That's the recipe for success at Tinder, and the marketing efforts and the product efforts need to be focused with those 2 goals in mind.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay. You talked about the campaign. You talked about pulling back a bit. And so It Starts with a Swipe. So I guess that's a bit of indication or validation that the branding campaigns work. Could you talk about what you're seeing kind of exiting this year and going into the cadence of brand spend for 2024?
Gary Swidler
executiveYes, sure. So I do think there's been some very good signs over the course of this year around the marketing spend. It's been targeted at the younger users. It's been targeted at women. And it has worked with those groups. We've seen real improvement in brand consideration intent among women. In fact, the user growth was more than we were expecting in that first half of the year. So we were expecting more improvement in brand sentiment. We got that, especially with the targeted demographics of younger users and women, but we did get some lift in users as well. So we've taken all the learnings from this year, we're factoring that into our plans for next year. I think there are a few important takeaways. One is we do need to have some level of always-on marketing. So that pullback in July and August was damaging to us. We can't allow that to happen. So in key markets like the U.S., the U.K., we have to have some level of constant brand marketing as many brands do. And then we'll have some other markets where we focus on them from time to time. And we'll have some special events or pulses from time to time, too, throughout the year. So we have a very clearly laid out calendar of marketing for next year that has both those special events and that always-on marketing country by country. And so I think we have a good plan of attack on the marketing side. Obviously, we're also going to try to market product. As new product innovations come out, we'll put some marketing muscle to call attention to those product features that are rolling out. I'm expecting that we're going to make a pretty heavy marketing push, especially in the first quarter of the year. We're going to spend heavily into that kind of peak season that happens between Christmas and Valentine's Day. And so you should expect some pretty heavy marketing from us, not only at Tinder but at Hinge as we try to really build momentum for '24, get user growth going at Tinder in particular and try to have a strong year with a good first quarter and a good start to the year from a user perspective.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay. The other thing you talked about in terms of driving Tinder is the product redesign. Anything else to unpack there or a time line for how that product redesign is kind of rolling out?
Gary Swidler
executiveSo the way that I think about all these things is there are a series of things. It's not sort of one big splash and once and done. And so the product redesign, the first couple of pieces of it are coming out imminently, certainly in the next week or two. And there's going to be more to come. There's going to be a series of product features focused on women, a series of product features focused on younger users. It's going to happen all through the course of '24 and into '25. It's going to be constant refinement. And we're just trying to make sure we calibrate it to have benefit with those target audiences and do it in a way that's revenue-enhancing and logical for the Tinder ecosystem.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay. And so just to put a bow around it, between the product enhancements, the product redesigns, the marketing changes, how are you thinking about 2024 Tinder users and top of funnel?
Gary Swidler
executiveSo look, we've been down single digits and we just need to see improvement from there, sort of get back to flat and improve from there. And I would just like to see us make progress on those lines over the course of the year. Moving to the top of the funnel is definitely the hardest piece, but it's also the most important piece. And we need that combination of strong marketing and product execution to really make that happen. And so I just want to see constant improvement to get ourselves to a better position. So when I sit here looking at the good weather next year, we'll be in a lot better shape from a top-of-funnel perspective.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay. I wanted to move on further down the funnel right now just talking about monetization at Tinder. What have you seen with younger user cohorts over the past couple of years? Changes in the overall propensity to pay or lifetime value? Anything unique with cohorts?
Gary Swidler
executiveI mean not really. I would say that I do think the younger users have been under a little bit of pressure from the macroeconomic environment, not just in terms of the cost of the dating app but just the cost of dating and going out generally, which has -- inflation has driven those costs up pretty significantly. So I think people have been a little bit more careful with their spending, especially with their discretionary income. And what we've seen is pretty good stability on the subscription side but a little bit more pressure on the à la carte side. That's something that's discretionary. If you feel you have extra money, you do it; if you don't, you don't do it. And I think in the last 12 months and in certain pockets of the last 12 months when gas price went to $5, as the student loan thing becomes an issue, you start to see some level of pullback on some of those kinds of purchases. So I think a stronger economy would give a little help to us in that regard, that people would feel a little better about purchasing à la carte. I think there's things we can do to tweak the à la carte offerings. It was very interesting to see when we tweak subscriptions and went to more weekly subscription, lower price point, really saw people take that at a very high level. And so I think there's room for the -- on the à la carte side to make some adjustments and see some kind of similar benefits.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay. You mentioned on the 3Q call student loan repayments, and those are first coming due right now in November. Any further anecdotes on that?
Gary Swidler
executiveNothing worse than we were expecting. I think there was a little bit of a shock to the system back in July, when people first sort of became aware of this issue. October, November, I think people sort of realized it was a real thing for the first time. But in general, it's tracking what we expected.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay. The -- you've had the opportunity to catch up on price. The changes have been really nice, right? U.S. RPP up more than 40% in the third quarter. Now that you've kind of caught up in the U.S., how are you thinking about your pricing strategy going forward? A more regular cadence of pricing alongside other optimizations? Or how should we see that panning out?
Gary Swidler
executiveYes. I mean the easiest way to think about this is pricing optimization is something that just needs to happen on a continuous basis. It's part of running one of these apps. And Tinder didn't do it for a period of time very effectively. With inflation and other apps raising prices, Tinder fell behind. And so the gap between where Tinder was priced and where competitors and other apps were priced had become pretty significant. And so we closed most of that gap, and so Tinder is more appropriately priced now versus the other alternatives out there. And so a lot of that work has been done, at least in the U.S., where the gap was the most pronounced. And now I think we'll go sort of market by market. The other markets are smaller, aren't going to cause as much kind of disturbance on the payer side of what we've seen in the U.S. But we'll go market by market and optimize and make sure we're constantly optimizing, we're on top of our game. We've dedicated a team to this, so this is their primary job. And this will be an always on kind of thing for Tinder. And that is a source of some of the revenue growth every year, that we can always be optimizing and generating a base level of revenue growth just from those optimization efforts.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay, okay. And so pricing is clearly a lever for international monetization through all of 2024.
Gary Swidler
executiveYes. I mean if you look at it, we did the U.S. and then we looked at about 5 or 6 other markets, U.K., Canada, Japan, et cetera. But Tinder operates in 190 markets. And so there's work for this pricing team to do to go market by market, cohort by cohort to figure out how to maximize price. And we can leverage ML and AI to be smart about this. We can have dynamic paywalls. There's lots we can do. So that's going to be a big body of work into 2024 as well for Tinder. And that gives us a base level of revenue growth that we can reliably expect is going to be there, which gives us some ability to focus on top of funnel and engagement and other things aside from revenue generation because we know that there is the ability to generate revenue from some things that need to be done around the world on the Tinder monetization side.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay. And last point on international Tinder monetization. Is that focused more on the subscription programs? Is that focused on à la carte? Is it both?
Gary Swidler
executiveIt could be both. Certainly, on subscription, that's where we've made changes, rolled out weekly subscriptions, adjusted pricing. That will happen in more markets. I think the payer effect will be much more muted than it was here because they're smaller. But there's work to do there. I think on à la carte, we haven't done a lot with à la carte over the last years either. We've had these 2 à la carte offerings for a long time. Thinking about what else we can do on the à la carte side, I think, is very interesting how we merchandise and price those à la carte offerings, how we bundle them. All of that needs to be further explored and provides, I think, a significant amount of opportunity for us.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay. Wanted to switch over to Hinge for a bit. You're seeing accelerating user momentum, strong product market fit. We've talked earlier about some of the attitude shifts among users in dating, and it seems like Hinge aligns well with how the market is evolving. So just to start, could you talk a bit about how you weigh your investments across the portfolio, maybe specifically investments to reposition the Tinder brand versus stepping on the gas at Hinge?
Gary Swidler
executiveYes. What you said about Hinge is all right. I mean the product market fit is extremely strong. The momentum there is great. It's really performed well, not only in the core English-speaking markets but also in all these European expansion markets. And they're different. France is different than Germany, and the product is resonating in all of these markets. So we're really happy with the progress Hinge has made. There's a lot more to do in Europe, and so we're focused on Europe in the short term because I think there's still a lot more open space there in Europe for Hinge. And all the work of user growth that we've done in '23 will start to pay off in terms of revenue generation for Hinge next year in Europe. So really, we're firing on all cylinders on Hinge. And our plan is to invest in that business as if it was our only business. We're going to continue to put the pedal to the metal, put gas on the fire, whatever analogy you want to use, to keep driving the growth of users at Hinge. That's the key, and the revenue will continue to follow. And so I feel really good about the outlook for Hinge through the course of '24 and really beyond.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay. You've talked about testing pricing optimization at Hinge as well. What can we expect there? Is it going to be more gradual than what you -- what we saw at Tinder in '23?
Gary Swidler
executiveYes. I mean I think it's a much more minor component of the strategy. Given the level of user growth there and the opportunity to keep that going, we'll continue to tweak. But we're -- we'll do some, but it's really not a main focus of the Hinge team. The main focus of the Hinge team is to continue to drive user growth and continue to make the product fun and exciting and something that people enjoy using, which is what's been key to its success so far.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay. Hinge seems to be resonating really well. International markets, it's a -- with the launches across Europe, how should we think about additional market expansions for Hinge and how you roll out?
Gary Swidler
executiveWe don't plan to go beyond Europe in 2024. So Asia will be something we'll think about for 2025. Hinge has -- a lot of the revenue potential really is in Europe. So Hinge has a lot of momentum for example, in India, and that's a market we could go into for Hinge. But when you look at the revenue opportunity in India versus Germany or France, the European markets are just much more fruitful from a revenue perspective. So it makes sense to sort of go down in revenue order, and that's why we remain focused on Europe. But we look at markets like Korea, we look at markets like India. Southeast Asia has become a very good dating market and in certain markets in Central and Latin America, like Brazil, Mexico. So those are logical to come over time, but they're not planned for 2024.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay. I wanted to finish on Hinge with maybe a broader, bigger-picture question. What about Hinge's experience really makes it appeal to its users, particularly women?
Gary Swidler
executiveHinge has like a little bit of a layer of more seriousness that I think does appeal to people. It takes a little bit more work to onboard. There are certain questions you have to answer. There's a certain number of photographs you have to put on. And so because they have to do a little bit more work, they're taking it a little bit more seriously. And that sends signals to people that, hey, I've put in the work. I've been willing to spend the time on this. I'm a bit more serious about this. I'm not just jumping on. And I think that, that has really resonated well with people. And as a result of that environment being created, the behavior and the way people interact on Hinge, I think, resonates with people, particularly women better. When Tinder was created, it had a mantra of getting on quickly and easily. Just one picture, not very much information and get going. And at the time, I think that really resonated very well with people. But it has had some other effects because you have people who aren't very serious. You have people who don't fill out their profiles. You don't know a lot about them. And so when we go back to learnings from Hinge that we can apply to Tinder, there are certain things that now, 10 years later, we learned from Hinge and other things we do that we have to incorporate back into the Tinder product experience and raise the bar a little bit. So Tinder had a very viable and thoughtful approach 10 years ago. It is still a great business that satisfies a lot of people and has a really big user base. But like everything, things evolve, and we need to make sure that Tinder adjusts to kind of keep up with what people want today.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay. Maybe thinking out loud, can you talk a little bit about how you kind of cross-market or grow people out of Tinder and into Hinge? Is that -- do you get good momentum with that type of movement? Or...
Gary Swidler
executiveWe don't do a lot of that. We don't kind of cross-sell. And so the brands really sort of compete with one another based on their marketing and based on their product. And Hinge's product and marketing has clearly been resonating. The overlap between Tinder and Hinge is not nearly as high as I think people think it is. But Hinge really resonating is having some knock-on effects to Tinder. I think it's hard to deny that. And there's also the factor of -- the fact that people use more than one of these apps at the same time. So you have a lot of people who have both of these apps on their phone. They might use Hinge for a while. They might use Tinder for a while. They go back and forth. Some people use 2 at once, some people flip from one to another. And so that is a factor for us. And the average younger person can use 2, 3, 4 of these at a time. And so that makes our category a little different than probably some other types of companies that you and the investors pay attention to.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay. I want to shift over to the opportunities at Match Group Asia. You've seen really nice uptick at Azar. But what else are you seeing in terms of the Japanese market with Match Group Asia?
Gary Swidler
executiveYes. Look, I mean, when we acquired Hyperconnect, the business wasn't delivering what we needed to deliver. We've spent a lot of cycles there with them, and they've done a lot of great work improving their AI algorithms. They're very advanced on the AI side. And Azar has really benefited from a much better AI matching algorithm. And so we've seen double-digit revenue growth there for a while now. I'm expecting that to continue into next year. The momentum is very strong, and we're trying to take learnings from that AI matching algorithm and see where else we could apply it across the portfolio. We're also trying to deploy the AI capabilities that Hyperconnect engineering team has across our portfolio as well. So there's some really good benefits we're getting out of that acquisition now, and we just need to keep that going. But the outlook for next year for Hyperconnect is very strong. I just came back from Seoul and Tokyo right before Thanksgiving, and very optimistic about what that business can deliver next year and what it can do for the overall platform. Japan is a more complicated story. Japan has the lowest data penetration of any Western market, sub-20% data penetration in online dating. And they have this massive problem where it's hard to find a partner, and the marriage rates and the birth rates are low. And the Japanese government is actually really concerned about this. So dating apps really fulfill a need that really is acute in the Japanese market. But I think there's a real reluctance from that 82% or whatever it is of people who haven't been using these apps to try them. They're worried about safety. They're worried about how to interact on these apps. They need more education and more comfort. And so we have a new head of our Japanese business. He's been spending the bulk of his initial time helming the business, understanding the user issues and concerns. And the '24 plan is to go out and make changes to the product to address those concerns and really try to grow the user base. So that is the plan for '24. Plus, we're getting a bit of a lift because we're being allowed to market on TV now, which hadn't been allowed in Japan. And that shows you the skepticism that Japanese society has around dating apps. They didn't think they were worthy of being marketed on TV. But now given the pressures to get people to get married and meet others, they're allowing the apps to be marketed on TV. And being on TV gives the apps a certain kind of level of trust inside it. You'll see it on TV. It feels like a legitimate product. And so I do think that's a really good step forward for us. So we're hopeful that the combination of some changes to the product to better account for the concerns of Japanese society, particularly around trust and safety, and the marketing on TV and improving the credibility should really drive better user growth in that market. And in fact, we're partnering with the Japanese government in a bunch of different jurisdictions in Japan to try to team up with them and have them speak to their constituents and demonstrate that dating apps are a valid way to meet people. And so I'm hopeful that those 3 things, the government partnerships, the increased marketing efforts and the changes to the product, should lead to enhanced user growth. We're not contemplating that in our financial outlook because we want to see it actually happen before we plan for it, but we're pushing to make that happen.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystSo beyond the trust and safety, beyond the marketing issues, is there any other things you have to do with the product to deal with the cultural nuances of the Japanese market in terms of how you monetize? Who pays for what? Is that different in that ecosystem?
Gary Swidler
executiveWell, it's different than in other places. Mostly, men pay in Japan. Women don't really pay. But the app that we have there is an app called Pairs that is solely focused on the Japanese market and has been for a long time. So that market is properly localized and optimized for the Japanese market. The issue really is that it has captured the people who are willing to use the app as it's currently constructed. And so we need to make evolutions on that app, capture people who have not been as comfortable using it. And there's things we can do with verification, selfie verification, ID verification to try to enhance the perception and the actual safety of that app and then market that to make sure people understand, hey, we've confirmed that this person is a real person, that we know who they are and we verified them. So there's work we can do on that front in Japan, and that's what we're planning to do.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay. I want to spend some time talking on investment plans and margin outlook. So for '24, margins at least the same level as '23. Could you go over what factors into that outlook and maybe the key swing factors we should be aware of?
Gary Swidler
executiveYes. I mean so there's a lot of considerations, right? The first is investment at Tinder and Hinge. And we talked a little bit about Hinge before. We're investing in people there. We're investing in marketing spend to continue to build momentum in that app. So that's clear. I actually think that despite all that, given the strong revenue growth, it may not be an investment year for Hinge. I think we could keep margins pretty similar at Hinge to what we've seen this year and still do all the things that we want to do at Hinge. So that's a very, very good story. I think Tinder, when you look at it, it's been around a 50% margin business. We've talked a little bit about needing to spend a few more marketing dollars there. I don't think it's a lot as a percentage of revenue. It's probably 1 or maybe 2 points. And so we're prepared to do that to try to drive that top of funnel, to market the product innovation, to invest in some people at Tinder, to really build out some more AI capabilities and other capabilities, to innovate on the product and drive growth. So I think there'll be modest margin degradation at Tinder but not very significant. And the way to pay for that is really by being more efficient across the company with overhead and kind of keeping the belt tight on our Asia business and also continuing to be judicious on our Evergreen & Emerging businesses. We're going to start combining platforms and reducing -- continuing to reduce duplication. And so the impact of that cost efficiency in our Evergreen & Emerging Brands and our overall corporate overhead is enough to offset what the planned investment is at Tinder. And so that's how I get to roughly flat margins when you mix it all together. And that assumes a certain level of growth for Tinder, consistent with what we've provided in terms of our outlook of high single digits. If Tinder can do better through new product innovation or the marketing, then that's very margin-enhancing because it's adding more revenue dollars at obviously very high margin. So that's the plan for next year. I feel good about it. We're still finalizing it and tweaking it and everything else, but that's what it's tracking to.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystYou talked earlier about AI and some of the matching algorithms, but I wanted to drill down on that a bit. It's an area of investment you've talked about. What are some of the key priorities there for using AI? And anything you can tell us about the scale of investment with your AI initiatives?
Gary Swidler
executiveSo I think there's a couple of things to keep in mind. One, we operate in a very dynamic environment, and the preferences change and what people are interested in and focus on change from a user perspective. And so we have to constantly be looking to buy or build kind of new ideas. We operate a portfolio. The apps are at different stages of their growth curve, and we need to take that all into account. We also have to take into account the fact that while a significant percentage of the population is interested in using and has used the existing crop of dating apps, the Hinges and the Tinders of the world, and we can evolve those apps to satisfy more people on the margins, there's lots of people who look at the universe of dating apps and say, "That's not for me. Those don't resonate with me." They're single, they want to meet people, but they're not using the products. And so we need to continue to try to innovate new ideas to serve those category resistors and bring them into the fold. There's lots of them, right, around the world. And so we have a central innovation team whose job really is to think about how do we bring in those resistors, how do we create new products, come up with new ideas that can bring more people into the fold. And the advent of -- or sort of the momentum that's building on the AI front now really provides us with an exciting opportunity to come up with products that wouldn't have been possible 5 years ago, that have a different interface or have a different matching algorithm or both and can really give people a different experience. And so we need to keep trying to build those. We have more data than any other company about daters, right? We've been in this business since 1995. We know this space extremely well. As you, I'm sure know, large language models depend on data. So the fact that we have this big repository makes us very likely to succeed in terms of building AI-driven products. And so we've got to take shots on that front. And I think we have a good chance of making it happen. It's hard to know if it's 1 product or it's 5 and it's hard to know if it's 2 years from now or 3 years from now or 6 months from now, but we have got a team leveraging the Hyperconnect capabilities, leveraging other capabilities we have to really build in this area and see what other innovations can happen. And we have a pretty good track record of doing this. When we took over Hinge, that was an idea that somebody else came up with, but that was a $1 million revenue business. It's going to be a $400 million revenue business, on its way to $1 billion revenue business. So we -- and we've incubated other things as well, Chispa, BLK and other apps. And so we need to keep doing both buying and building those out and building for ourselves as part of our portfolio strategy. And I think AI gives us a real opportunity to build some exciting and very cool things.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay. A couple more from me. We got a few minutes left. Maybe not a margin driver, but you announced sentiment with Google on the 3Q call. Could you unpack the changes there?
Gary Swidler
executiveYes. I mean as you say, it's sort of net neutral. We're going to adopt user choice billing, which we think will overall be a good thing. The fee structure will be higher. But we're entering into this arrangement with them around marketing and other products that they have, which we think will roughly be net neutral to us. And so we think just kind of putting the uncertainty of the litigation behind us was a good thing and focusing on our core business and having a good relationship with Google, who is such an important partner of ours, and there's a lot of things we can do together with them. So it's good to put that behind us. Although it will be interesting to see what happens to that trial, as you probably know, Epic continued along and that trial continues to play out. And it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystYes. And maybe riffing off of that point, the Google sentiment in your mind reflecting changes in terms of your outlook for regulatory relief on app store fees or no?
Gary Swidler
executiveAbsolutely not. I mean just a couple of interesting data points. The first thing is, I don't know how many people read the risk factors in Apple's 10-K, I'm guessing not that many. But they just updated their risk factors to basically say, we expect or it's possible that we're going to have to make changes in light of regulatory changes that are happening related to App Store fees. So that's not a guarantee that change is coming, but they clearly see it as a possibility, if not more. And then you've got the trial, which we just talked about. And then most notably, and I think this is what Apple was reacting to, you have the Digital Markets Act in Europe, which is going to start to be enforced in the first quarter of next year. And so we're getting pretty close to that. And I think Apple and Google both recognize that, that is probably going to require changes to their systems. And so '24, I think we haven't factored any of this into our margin outlook or anything else. Obviously, we're eager to see what happens. But '24 could be a year of significant change on this front, which will be great for consumers and great for the developers overall.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay. Last question is on capital allocation, how you're thinking about that and maybe what you're seeing in the markets, public and private.
Gary Swidler
executiveI'd like to think we've articulated this fairly clearly, which is we have a lot of cash flow generation, we plan to return at least 50% of that to shareholders through share buybacks or other means. Obviously, with our stock where it is, we continue to buy stock back aggressively. And the other 50% we're holding for investments or we're holding for M&A. There's not a lot for us to buy, and we're planning to stick pretty close to our knitting in terms of the dating space. And I don't see a lot of interesting sort of tech lift-outs out there. So I don't think that's likely to be a source of M&A, but we keep an eye on it. So unless something breaks on the M&A side, I expect to be returning a lot of capital to shareholders. But we'll continue to preserve it. People come up with new ideas all the time, circumstances change. Companies in our space have definitely been hurt from a valuation perspective. Things have gotten a lot cheaper. So we'll see how things continue to play out. We have financial resources to do whatever we need to do on the M&A side, on the investment side. We're primarily obviously investing through our P&L with these new efforts. So I feel the company is in very good financial shape. We've got leverage levels below our targets. We refinanced out our maturities a long time ago and put them out far away so that we don't have a debt maturity until 2026 and really, the bonds don't start until 2027. So the company is in really good shape from a balance sheet perspective. And that lets me sleep well at night, and we just got to keep executing on the business.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay. So we touched upon a lot of different things. A couple of seconds left. Anything in your mind that The Street is not appreciating with your story?
Gary Swidler
executiveThe only other thing I would add, which we didn't touch on, is on the Tinder payer front that has become a very big focus, shall we say. And we created a lot of noise on payers with all the price changes and the introduction of weekly subscriptions, et cetera. The noise from weekly subscription is pretty much behind us at this point or will be very shortly. And we will anniversary the effects of the U.S. pricing changes in Q2 of next year. And so we've provided an outlook that says year-over-year payer growth will improve as the year goes on, which we continue to stand behind. And I think that should position us to get back to sequential payer growth at Tinder in the middle of next year. So the company is positioned for double-digit revenue growth here in Q3, Q4, positioned to carry that momentum into the beginning of next year and get to a point next year where we see sequential payer growth at Tinder as well and year-over-year payer growth by the end of the year. So that all lines up, I think, to be a pretty good story with strong margins, strong cash flow and return of capital. And so when I look at the $32-ish stock price and I know that all those factors are out there from a financial and operating metric standpoint, I struggle to understand kind of where people's heads are at. But it gives us an opportunity to keep buying back stock and buying it back at pretty low prices. And I'm optimistic we'll look back in a few years from now and say, we should have bought even more than we were buying back in 2023. So I feel good about all of that.
Brian Fitzgerald
analystOkay. Well, we'll leave it there. Gary, thank you so much.
Gary Swidler
executiveOkay. Thank you.
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