Mercialys SA (MERY) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
February 15, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our Mercialys full year results conference for the year of 2022. The conference is recording. Over to Vincent Ravat, CEO of Mercialys. Over to you, sir.
Vincent Ravat
executive[Interpreted] Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Mercialys 2022 results meeting. Yet another year of operational excellence and very good operational and financial performance for the company. And yet, as you all know, 2022 was characterized most notably by the war in Ukraine; of course, presidential elections, which seem far away now; the pandemic in China; shortages; and most of all, inflation, which all had a significant impact on our economy. In this context for a general overview of Mercialys' specific situation and positioning, please go straight to Slide 4. There you are. As you know, over the years, Mercialys has refined its asset portfolio and retail concept to become today a European leader in the convenience shopping center segment. Mercialys' success is based on 3 competitive advantages: firstly, an asset portfolio focused on key regional catchment areas with positive demographic dynamics and solid purchasing power in spite of the context. Secondly, a proven ability to refine customer journeys to generate engagement and repeat -- repeated visits, first via our proprietary digital tools, but also thanks to our merchant mix that's continuously adapted to the needs of the catchment areas where we operate. Lastly, by consolidating its balance sheet, Mercialys now has solid fundamentals to implement its pipeline in a market environment that's volatile, but with potential acquisition opportunities. Thanks to this positioning and its strong balance sheet, Mercialys has delivered excellent financial results in 2022 confirming the end of the COVID effect on our business. So after almost 3 years of health crisis, our main indicators are on excellent levels. Let me quote but a few of these excellent results: plus 4.1% in organic growth supported by a positive reversion of plus 2.8%; normalization of collection; occupancy cost ratio is almost stable compared to 2019, they're around 11%; and an LTV ratio excluding transfer taxes of 35.3%, allowing for a stable property holding value like-for-like. We will analyze these indicators in detail later. Mercialys' strategy is always conducted responsibly and in the interest of all of its stakeholders. Our 4 Fair Impacts CSR strategy illustrated on Slide 5 is based on 4 pillars, 13 key objectives, a number of ambitions as well for 2030 and, of course, hundreds of initiatives which are taken by our teams on a daily basis on the field. And these reflect the commitments of all our teams. Energy savings are now a short-term emergency, but our results do encourage us to keep up with our long-term action. The steps taken over the past several years have resulted in significant advances in 2022. And here are but a few highlights. For example, year-on-year reduction in our energy consumption of 19% like-for-like, reduction of our carbon emissions, increasing of our waste recovery rate to 65%, 100% certification of our strategic centers and close to 10,000 trees planted. The -- so that's the -- in terms of equivalent tons of CO2, you're looking at 1,500 equivalent tons of CO2 stored, thanks to our loyalty program. And these convincing results have once again been recognized through numerous awards and extra financial rankings that place us among the best performing companies in Europe. We were ranked second in the benchmark for the representation of women in management structures on the FBF of 120. We ranked third the year before. We have obtained the Great Place to Work status yet again. We were granted the Green Star status in the GRESB rating; we ranked second in our category. And we are still in the CDP A List, a top 2% out of 15,000 companies in the world. And for the second year in a row, we were shortlisted as best regional and in our sector performer by Sustainalytics. Over to Slide 7 now for a quick snapshot of the economic context in 2022. By 2021, inflationary pressures were apparent. The debate on whether they were temporary or not was quickly settled in 2022. Inflation initially affected the energy sector only to spread to all other consumption sectors, particularly food. Year-on-year consumption prices, thus, rose by 5.9% over 1 year at the end of December 2022 according to the INSEE. The most striking feature of the economic here was the resurgence of a sustained and generalized rise in prices, which led to an almost general tightening of monetary policy. 2022 thus ended an exceptional period of negative rates. In France over 2022, the unemployment rate has remained almost stable at 7.3% of the working population. It has hovered around this level since the fourth quarter of 2021 or 0.7 points lower than the third quarter of 2021 and 0.9 points lower than before the health crisis. Despite the macroeconomic context, in the third quarter of 2022, the number of unemployed people even decreased by 17,000 people compared to the previous quarter to 0.39 million people, unprecedented according to the INSEE. Household purchasing power also remained almost stable, minus 0.1%, and it was supported by various government subsidies to cushion the inflationary shock, a non-exhaustive list of which can be seen on the right hand side of Slide 8. As for household consumption, it remained dynamic throughout 2022. It finished up 2.2% compared to 2021 with a very good month of December in store. After a difficult start to the year, French growth recovered in the second and third quarters. Overall, the French economy seems to be holding up better than its neighbors for the most part. In this general context, as you can see on Slide 9, our ability to evolve as closely as possible to our clients' expectations was once again the basis for a very robust performance. In 2022, our organic growth in invoiced rents was plus 4.1% compared to plus 3%. A year earlier, our EBITDA remained stable at EUR 144 million, above 83%, one of the highest levels in the sector, despite the additional nonrecurring costs incurred during the year due to the finalization of function in-sourcing previously outsourced to the Casino Group. Earnings from operations or FFO per share amounted to EUR 1.13, up 3.1% above the annual target of at least plus 2%. At the end of 2022, our LTV ratio excluding transfer taxes amounted to 35.3%, down sharply from 36.7% at December 31, 2021, due in large part to the continued rotation of our portfolio. The EPRA NDV reviewed net asset value was EUR 20.94 per share, up 6.6% over 6 months and plus 19% over 12 months. The change of plus EUR 3.34 per share over 12 months results mainly from the favorable impacts of the result of operations and the fair value of our fixed rate debt. Based on these results, the Board of Directors of Mercialys will propose to the AGM of the 27th of April, 2023, a dividend of EUR 0.96 per share or plus 4.3% compared to the EUR 0.92 per share dividend paid out in 2021. Mercialys' operating results in 2022 are amongst the highest in history and we thought it would be interesting indeed to take a look back at our history. Organic growth in 2022 was the highest recorded since 2015. However, the full effect of inflation was not yet felt at that stage in 2022 since the positive contribution of indexation only stood at 1.9% due to the annual delay in the -- in its application on leases. The EBITDA margin despite the one-off effects of function in-sourcing remained above the company's 7-year average for this indicator. And over the same period, in the context of rising interest rates, our balance sheet has never been -- has never had such low levels of debt. This review shows how well proven Mercialys' model is even during periods of severe economic, political or even health hazards at both national and global levels. Slide 11. If we look back at the change in invoiced rents over the last year, we -- you will see that this plus 1.3-point change is mainly due to the following: first, as mentioned above, the effect of indexation to the tune of EUR 3.3 million; second, increase in the contribution of casual leasing, plus 0.7 point or plus EUR 1.3 million. Variable rents were virtually stable at minus 0.1 point. Actions carried out in the portfolio had an impact of plus 1 point or plus EUR 1.7 million, accounting impact of rent relief granted to tenants in the context of the health crisis, plus 0.9 million. And finally, outside the organic scope, the effect of asset acquisitions and disposals in 2021 and 2022 stood at minus 2.5 points, and other effects, including mainly the strategic vacancy linked to the restructuring programs underway for 0.2 points. Taking into account the first 5 effects described above, organic growth in invoiced rents is therefore up by 4.1 points. Let's move on to the analysis of FFO in Slide 12. We can find here again the previously described increase of 1 million in rental income. The costs and expenses included in the calculation of net rental income represent EUR 7.3 million for 2022 compared with EUR 12.2 million in 2021. A significant upturn in management fee-related costs was recording -- recorded in '22, factoring in the catch-up achieved on collection levels for '20 and '21, as well as the normalization of collection during '22. This catch-up also had an impact during '22 in terms of provisions recorded for the previous 2 years. In fiscal year '22, structural costs have evolved unfavorably. In an inflationary environment, certain operating costs have risen partially offset by our deliberate efforts to moderate operating costs and by the gradual phasing out of the costs of services and mandates with the Casino Group. And thus in '22, personnel expenses include the staff recruited to finalize our in-sourcing of functions. And the terminated mandates have given rise to the payment of fees for Mercialys to the tune of EUR 6.6 million in '22. Personnel expenses amount to EUR 18.7 million in '21 compared with EUR 14.8 million in -- before. The financial results take into account in the calculation of operating income. FFO is EUR 29.7 million as of the 31st of December, 2022, compared with EUR 32.8 million the year before. This amount does not take into account nonrecurring items, notably premiums and expenses associated with bond buybacks, the unwinding of hedging products and the exceptional amortization in connection with bond buybacks. Provisions and the contribution of other operating income and expenses driven by the ramp-up of Ocito and Cap Cowork business were up by EUR 0.5 million. Mercialys recorded a tax charge of EUR 0.4 million in FFO, mainly consisting of the CVAE corporate added value tax expense and deferred tax income. Lastly, Mercialys benefited from a slight improvement in the contribution from non-controlling interests and the share of net income from associates and joint ventures for EUR 200,000. On the basis of these items, earnings from operations, FFO, amounted to EUR 105.5 million compared with EUR 101.8 million for the financial year of '21, up by 3.7%. Considering the average number of shares at the end of December, the FFO represents EUR 1.13 per share as of the 31st of December, 2022, compared with EUR 1.10 per share as of the 31st of December 2021. So an increase of plus 3.1%. The proposed dividend if approved by the general meeting, as you can see on Slide 13, would offer a yield of 9.8% on the year's closing price. The payout would correspond to 85% of the FFO for '22 and would offer a yield of 4.6% on the NDV net asset value of EUR 20.94 per share at the end of 2022. This proposed dividend is based on the distribution requirement with the REIT status concerning exempt profits from property, rental or subletting operations, including dividends paid to -- by the subsidiaries subject to the REIT system, so that's EUR 0.71 per share; the payout based on 70% of exempt profits for 2022 from the disposal of properties and investments in real estate companies, so EUR 0.05 per share; and the distribution of exempt income recording -- recorded on the company's balance sheet, EUR 4.2 per share. This payout would be the second highest level of dividend on year and price for Mercialys since 2016. This is in line with Mercialys' historical pattern of high and stable payouts between 85% and 90% of FFO if we exclude the payouts for 2019 and 2020, which were affected by the COVID-19 crisis and government requests to moderate dividend levels. Combined with this payout, the past year has been characterized from a shareholder point of view by the good performance of Mercialys shares compared to the EPRA sector index, leading to a high total price return of plus 24% for 2022. Over to you, Elizabeth.
Elizabeth Blaise
executive[Interpreted] So the results that Vincent just described is a result of powerful business models deployed across the dynamic territories. Our business model is also based on the notion of sustainability, both with respect to tenants and consumers. These characteristics have contributed to the resilience of our performance in a once again troubled environment. You can see an illustration of this on Slide 14. Firstly, in terms of footfall in Mercialys' shopping centers, which reached 88.7% of the total footfall. This was normalized from [ 2019 ] in line with the national FACT panel, an improved trend compared with 2021 when footfall was 86% of 2019 levels, but which also reflects continued efficiency-driven consumer behavior. Visitors prepare their visit ahead of time and they come less often and in more limited numbers. However, these useful trips are reflected in a higher transformation rate and this is reflected in the sales of our tenants, a central indicator of their performance, the sustainability of the rents and the potential for growth. Sales of retailers positioned in Mercialys' portfolio were up 1% compared with 2019, while the national panel was down by 2.3%. The attractiveness of Mercialys sites and the sustainability of rents are also demonstrated in Slide 15, first, by an OCR of 11.1%, which remains at a low level in the French sector despite the impact of inflation in 2022. Let me remind you that the affordability rate was 10.4% in 2019. And this reasonable ratio includes a very controlled average level of rental charges per square meter invoiced to tenants of EUR 40 per square meter, excluding property tax. So this seems to be central to us in terms of the current inflationary environment. Another indicator which reflects the excellent performance of our operations is the current financial vacancy rate. This stood at 2.9% at the end of 2022 compared with 3.2% at the end of 2021. The total vacancy -- financial vacancy rate, which includes the vacancy created by the company to carry out its restructuring projects, was at 4.4% at the end of 2022 compared with 4.9% at the end of 2021. At the beginning of 2023, the financial vacancy was significantly impacted by the retailer Camaieu going into liquidation, and this was followed by the liquidator effectively terminating its lease in January. While liquidations occur regularly and have only minor impacts for Mercialys over the past 5 years, the Camaieu liquidation has more noticeable consequences given the size of its network. Camaieu operated 16 stores within Mercialys portfolio, representing 0.9% of its rental base. The process of reletting these stores is well underway with 40% of the rents concerned covered by leases or approvals, including a positive reversion at 13 -- plus 13.8%. So one store is still in operation in La Reunion, 8% of the rents concerned, 2 new leases have already been signed on 2 stores, i.e., 17% of rents concerned, 2 approvals were concluded for stores representing 12% of the rents concerned. Finally, one 12-month lease was signed for an additional store representing 3% of the rents concerned. Discussions are also underway on other stores that have been released. I mentioned earlier the dynamics of the regions in which we operate. You can see the details of this on Slide 16. Our sites are positioned on a map by showing 2 things. On the one hand, the share of taxable households, which shows a good distribution of our assets in the areas where purchasing power is the most solid. On the other hand, you can see the 15 most attractive retail zones in France, as identified by Mytraffic and FACT data. Mercialys has sites located in 5 of the 10 most attractive areas outside the Ile-de-France, where we have a marginal presence. You may be surprised to learn that the most attractive areas include Marseille, Annecy, Arles but also Agen or Clermont-Ferrand. This is a clear illustration that the prime retail asset is not determined by the size of the city in which it's located, but by the dynamics of the city, and beyond that, by the leadership of the shopping center in its catchment area. So a few retailers went bankrupt in 2022, the most significant being Camaieu, as I mentioned. In Slide 17, you have the details of the 10 -- Mercialys' 10 largest tenants, excluding large food service. You will see the diversity of these brands, with 4 textile brands positioned across different customer segments: H&M, Armand Thiery, Mango and Jules. You have 3 health beauty brands with Sephora, Nocibe and Yves Rocher. FNAC on the culture, entertainment gift segment. A telecoms operator with Orange, and Feu Vert with car-related services. Diversification is also seen in terms of rental exposure, because excluding Casino, which represents 80% of Mercialys' total rental exposure adjusted for minority interest and including companies accountable by the equity method, only H&M accounts for 2% of rental income. In total, these top 10 tenants, excluding large food service stores, account for 13.3% of the property company's rental base. Confirming the decline in the vacancy rate in 2022, the illustration on the right of the slide shows the retailer rotation capacity in Mercialys' portfolio. In the transactions carried out in 2022, we've been able to replace ready-to-wear brands sometimes with other brands in this segment that are more in line with visitors' expectations and to integrate new stores in the growth sectors of cosmetics with Normal, culture with Cultura, food with Picard and sport with Lacoste and Intersport. This permanent attention to the market mix at our site is also the subject of a focus on Slide 18. You will see the overall exposure to the different retail segments and this exposure between the end of 2017 and the end of 2022. Over the period, Mercialys significantly reduced its exposure to Casino as a tenant via a drop of 710 basis points decline in large food stores, substantial -- minus 170 basis points reduction in exposure to personal goods to 30%. At the same time, we've fine-tuned our offering in culture, beauty, health, restoration services and home equipment. Mercialys has thus responded to customer expectations, illustrated on the right, by the change in openings since 2014, and since 2020, across the French market, which clearly reflects the changing appeal of the various segments. Mercialys' distinctive food anchoring also enables it to benefit from a retail mix that is better distributed across all consumer needs. One of the characteristics of Mercialys among listed shopping center companies is its focus on large food stores. There is a -- so this depends on the large shopping centers where we operate, whether it is Mercialys alone or with our partners, BNP or Amundi. For these assets, we own the hypermarket or supermarket. The retailer in question belongs to the Casino Group, Delhaize or Monoprix, with the exception of the Aldi store. For those shopping stores where we do not own large food stores, there has been a diversification in the large food store operators over the last few years with notably Carrefour, Systeme U and Intermarche. Beyond operators -- the positioning of hypermarkets or supermarkets as central players in food retailing in France remains confirmed due to a closer footprint on the -- you can see the regular increase in sales achieved through this type of format between 2016 and 2022. The power of large food stores have nevertheless been questioned over the last decade in the non-food segment, but super food stores are still popular for -- and they focus particularly on specialized food stores, however. So we've seen the reduction of non-food services for adjacent galleries. So however, in order to offer the visitors the most appropriate offer for each catchment area, we now need customer knowledge tools. We have been perfecting these tools every year for the past decade, and you can see an overview on Slide 20. Database of 1.3 million customers is fed and renewed regularly via WiFi access, events, gems -- games and contests organized regularly on the sites, the loyalty program and the digital platform also. This database offers a wealth of knowledge that serves us in a very operational way to ensure that the stores are adapted to the specific needs of each shopping center via receipt scanning to analyze the purchases and the relevance that the sites offer to increase the capacity of each center to serve not only its catchment area, but also to reach out beyond it via the shop or Ocito. So such customer knowledge is now a significant driver of the added value of a lessor and contributes to the positive reversion of rents because customer knowledge is what drives the growth of our retailer revenues. On the basis of these solid fundamentals, Mercialys has the leverage to accelerate its growth in the medium term, especially with the development of service platforms. I was just talking about Le Shop, Ocito. Le Shop is a new name of the Ocito service that you all know. It's a marketplace of our shopping centers. Ocito is still alive and kicking and its name is now dedicated to the last-mile delivery service. As you can see in Slide 21, Le Shop is deployed in 28 of our 48 shopping centers. 190 stores have deployed their offer on these platforms, representing approximately 10% of the total rental base. It's interesting to see that the average basket reached EUR 42 in 2022, which is quite close to the average [ IRL ] basket. So the whole objective of the shop is to take into account the changes in consumer habits and to satisfy them, not by transporting products from national or regional warehouses, which is economically and environmentally negative, but by delivering products from a store closer to the consumers, thus favoring local stores. Our challenge in 2023 is to develop retailer adoption. Any additional revenue will help to balance the affordability rate and preserve the reversionary potential of our rents. Another growth area is capitalizing on all our spaces. In 2022, Mercialys continued to pursue its functional and service mix strategy. In a context where artificial ground cover is very limited, it's necessary to maximize the use of all the service areas held, whether this is through our commercial -- co-commercial business or through complementary uses. In Slide 22, the 2 drivers of this mix are detailed. Our most recent initiative but already well-established is the deployment of co-working spaces via our Cap Cowork platform. These spaces are successfully operated in Anjou, Grenoble, Toulouse and Nimes with a total of nearly 150 workstations. We will be able to optimize the results of this activity on a like-for-like basis via the pricing policy. We also have development potential with an extension underway in Anjou and the opening of co-working spaces in 6 additional sites in the medium term. An initiative in which Mercialys has been a forerunner since 2014 was casual leasing. It allows us through a constantly renewed offer to consolidate the place of our shopping centers at the heart of visitors' daily routine. In 2022, casual leasing represented revenues of nearly EUR 10 million. That's up 15% on 2021. Although the performance of the shopping centers that we operate has been very satisfactory, over the past decade, the question of competition from online retail and the potential pressure it could put on brick-and-mortar retail rents has remained largely unanswered. 2 years of health crisis have favored online business with 3 administrative closures of physical businesses in France over a cumulative period of 6 months. However, as soon as they reopened, the sales figures of retailers in our centers and of the major listed real estate companies returned to levels close to and even above 2019. Customer surveys have shown that customers are keen to return to their retailers. You can see in Slide 23 that the French show a strong preference for physical retail compared to other countries in Europe, North America or Asia. In France, more specifically, it's interesting to note that by 2021, the market share of physical retail has stabilized or declined down by 7% compared to 2021, and the share of e-commerce in product sales is estimated at 12.5% of retail trade compared to 14.1% in 2021 and 13.4% in 2020. A balance between online businesses, whose economic equation remains unsolved, and physical retail could take shape. Rental dynamics remained strong in 2022, as you can see on Slide 24. 150 renewals and relettings were concluded during this period. All of these negotiations resulted in a reversion on renewals and relettings that averaged at plus 2.8% for the whole of 2022, with a steady growth as the year progressed, since the reversion was at plus 0.1% in the first quarter, plus 1.7% at the end of June, plus 2.4% at the end of September. Now it's on this basis, a solid performance, that Mercialys can build its medium-term growth. In Slide 26, you will find the sequence of disposals carried out by Mercialys since 2019, a cumulative total of almost EUR 500 million, involving 6 hypermarkets operated by Geant, 7 Monoprix stores, a retail park, 3 shopping centers and isolated units. These sales were made at least at the appraised value level. They reflect Mercialys' ability to position itself on these opportunistic disposals in order to take full advantage of cyclical effects and changes in investor demand, the liquidity of the assets, particularly in large food stores, and therefore, the ability to gradually reduce exposure to Casino tenants. The possibility of disposing of isolated plots or small galleries, as was the case for the 2 Mercialys' sites sold in the fourth quarter of 2022. These disposals allowed the portfolio and its management to focus on the most profitable sites with development potential, and therefore, a residual value extraction in the long-term. They will also contribute to the resumption of investments, contributing to a very healthy financial situation. In fact, on Slide 27, you'll find information on the strength and liquidity of our balance sheet. Thanks to refinancing operation carried out in February 2022, the maturity of the debt has been significantly extended to almost 5 years as regards to bond debt compared with 3.6 years at the end of 2021. There are no bond redemption dates before February 2026. Mercialys has also undrawn credit lines of EUR 385 million. The collection of rents and charges has largely normalized in 2022, as you can see in Slide 28. Normalization for the year of 2022 with a collection rate of 95.5%, but also with normalization operations for the years 2020 and 2021. This structurally very positive generation of operating cash flow together with the proceeds of disposals and good performance of appraised values contributed to a further reduction in the debt-to-equity ratio, excluding transfer duties, of 36.7% at the end of 2021 to 35.5% at the end of 2022. Mercialys' financial rating has been confirmed at BBB with a stable outlook. Now given the changes in interest rate, we felt it was important to give you some information on debt coverage. Since 2015, Mercialys has been financed at a fixed rate -- this is Slide 29 -- and this is with bonds and commercial papers. The company has put in place mechanisms to vary and re-fix its debt, which has enabled it to benefit from a downward trend in interest rates. The optimization is still illustrated by the significant difference between the average cost of the debt drawn and the average bond coupon between 2015 and 2022. In 2022, against a backdrop of sharply rising interest rates, Mercialys significantly increased its debt coverage, firstly, during the restructuring operation in the first quarter, then in the third and in the fourth quarters. Taking into account these transactions, the fixed rate or hedged debt position is 100% at the end of December 2022. The positions also result in a fixed rate debt position of 96% in 2023. The sensitivity of Mercialys' financial income to changes in interest rates appears to be limited in 2023. 100% basis point increase in interest rates would have an impact of EUR 0.2 million on the financial income, all things being equal. Now if we look at the value of assets on Slide 30, this is at EUR 3.1 billion, including transfer duties and EUR 2.9 billion, excluding transfer duties. The value, excluding duties, is shown by 1.5% over 12 months, by a drop of 1% over 6 months at current scope. On a like-for-like basis, the value of portfolio fell slightly by 0.8% over 6 months, but rose by 0.9% over 12 months. Over the year, the change in value on a like-for-like basis was generated by a rent effect of plus 1.5%, an interest rate of minus 0.8%. You can also see the change in the value of the assets on the current scope, including transfer taxes with a significant impact from asset disposal.
Vincent Ravat
executive[Interpreted] To complete the analysis of the value of the assets, we have detailed some appraisal parameters on Slide 31. The average appraisal rent is EUR 228 per square meter. This reflects the very sustainable level of rents for our retailers. The average annual rate of change used in the appraisals over 10 years is 3.2%, again, a prudent growth scenario, especially since it includes the effect of indexation. Appraisals show a value per square meter of EUR 3,727 and an initial yield according to the EPRA methodology of 5.29%, reasonable levels that have been validated in recent years by the sale prices. The average appraisal yield was 5.75% as of the end of December compared with 5.71% at the end of June '22 and --- June '21. This level still offers a very significant differential with the risk-free rate. This brings us on Slide 32 to the change in NDV, which amounts to EUR 20.94 per share, up 6.6% over 6 months and plus 19% over 12 months. The main changes over 12 months are the dividend for '21, minus EUR 0.92 per share, more than compensated by the FFO for plus EUR 1.13 per share. The change in the unrealized capital gain for plus EUR 0.18 per share, including an interest rate for minus EUR 0.25 per share, a rent effect for plus EUR 0.49 per share and other effects for minus EUR 0.06 per share, the change in fair value of fixed rate debt for plus EUR 3.02 per share and the change in fair value of financial instruments of other items for minus EUR 0.07 per share. In view of these factors, Mercialys has significant room for maneuver to increase its investment capacity as detailed in Slide 33. The deployment of these investments will take into account the inflationary context. Rising construction costs may have a negative impact on the target return on projects and prompt the arbitration of part of the development portfolio in favor of external growth operations. In this context, Mercialys will not make any investments or acquisitions. Only on the basis of a positive spread of 250 basis points between the yield on these transactions and the refinancing cost, the resumption of investments will be based on 3 aspects. Firstly, development operations that include a multiuse dimension in which Mercialys has developed expertise over the past 5 years. These operations may involve sites currently in our portfolio or sites which are not currently owned to give you an example. We're participating in calls for projects launched by cities involving developments based on retail, but also housing and hotels. We would position ourselves in partnership with development players in this type of arrangement. In addition, developments may include development margins when Mercialys participates in transactions in which it retains a holding in the retail portion and sales building rights or holds a minority interests in the development transaction itself. Finally, the targeted acquisitions would involve assets or portfolios of retail or related business. In Slide 34, you can see the characteristics of the investments we study. For both projects and acquisitions, we look at retail assets based on convenience and everyday recurring shopping, position in the leading catchment areas and a solid visibility of rental profile. More specifically, with regard to potential targeted acquisitions, Mercialys will focus on, first of all, sites or portfolios with already developed land reserves with a moderate installed valued -- value and indeed in the context of the 0 net artificialization law. This makes it possible to implement transformation projects that are accretive in addition to the immediate cash flow. In the same context of limited land expansion sites, offering the potential for densification would be particularly appropriate, still in the multi-use dimension that I mentioned earlier. Finally, in addition to what I was saying about the development portfolio, you will find a breakdown on Slide 35. At the end of December '22, the company's portfolio amounted to EUR 475 million, up to 2027 and beyond. As I said a moment ago, we will analyze the launch of these projects on a case-by-case basis based on a positive spread of 250 basis points over refinancing costs. This is why in an otherwise volatile context for the determination of costs of construction, especially over the long term, we have removed the notion of target return that was historically presented to you. This portfolio, which covers 22 of Mercialys' sites includes retail space projects, restaurant and leisure projects and service sector projects, housing, healthcare, co-working, et cetera. This potential for reconfiguring sites will make it possible to maintain their attractiveness beyond the local retail sector and thus to maintain their power in their catchment areas and their cash flow profile. To conclude, the year 2022 was a turning point in the history of Mercialys. And indeed, 17 years after the company's IPO, 2022 was marked by the definitive exit from the Casino Group from its shareholding structure. It was also the year when the last functions outsourced to the Casino Group were in-sourced, the year as we saw during the presentation when we achieved very good operational performance and took major steps to consolidate our balance sheet. In an environment with potentially persistently high interest rates and inflation, the company is looking to 2023 with confidence. Mercialys can count on the visibility offered by indexation, high levels of savings in France, as you can see on Slide 37 and the resilient profile of its assets as illustrated by the low vacancy rate and reasonable occupancy rate as we saw. Nevertheless, the company will keep its eyes on its retailers' solvency and on the protection of its balance sheet in the financial year to come and beyond. Mercialys has set a target for 2023 of at least plus 2% growth in recurring earnings per share FFO, as you can see on Slide 38, and as well as a dividend in the range of 85% to 95% of the FFO for 2023. On this note, I thank you for your attention. And let us now proceed to our traditional Q&A session, starting with the questions in the room here.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[Interpreted] [ Straffon Alonso ] from [ Investment Securities ]. I have various questions. Let me take them one by one. First, regarding indexation. As I understood, in 2022, you were able to manage the indexation, especially for the contractual part of it. What are your forecasts for '23? What is your expected level indexation? As I understood, part of your rental basis depends on the ILC ceiling.
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] Well, with regards to indexation, the answer is, all of it was passed on to our customers last year, and the same will apply for 2023. It's already the case as a matter of fact. That indexation was passed on to our leases. There was a ceiling that was decided by the government of 3.5% upon the request of the retailers, which were concerned. And so this indexation impact might not necessarily be as problematic as we've heard in the press. And indeed, that was not necessarily the case in France, but more so in the U.S. in the end of the past financial year. Up until then, they did not really pass on that indexation on their public prices, and now it's starting to be the case. There were a few announcements made by major food retailers lately in this sense.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[Interpreted] A question now on bankruptcies by retailers. Are you expecting any other bankruptcies apart from Camaieu? And for those sites where Camaieu was based, what kind of profile are we looking at in terms of the newcomers, maybe Lacoste as far as I understood?
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] We always pay great attention to the solvency of our customers. As I said in my conclusion, there is nothing new here. I mean, in 2015, if you may remember, everyone said careful with 2016, there will be a huge number of bankruptcies. There were a few, but over time, things were spread out and it was completely manageable. In our portfolio, now the bankruptcies which are happening are perhaps a little more sizable for Camaieu, you're looking at more than 500 stores in France. And for the financial year to come, you will be looking at 1% to 2%. But actually that's quite in line with what we had in the past years in terms of at-risk retailers. Our teams have systematic pre-lettings on units for retailers at risk, although there might not be any immediate signal in order to anticipate. So that has -- that makes it possible for a limited impact on our occupancy ratio. Our vacancy rates, whenever there are bankruptcies are quite low and lower than our peers since we're always in anticipation mode. With regards to Camaieu specifically and the available units, of the 16 stores we had -- we have in our portfolio, as Elizabeth said, 14 of them had an EBITDA per store that was positive. In Camaieu's case, the problem was not really the business model or the attractivity and attractiveness of the products and of the retailer profile. That was actually fine. But the LBO at company level was difficult. They had problems with their cash. Due to its historical place in our portfolio, this retailer had prime locations. So very looked out for, very much sought after insights where we have no vacancy whatsoever and where we actually have a waiting list. Lacoste was mentioned. Lacoste absolutely wanted to have a store in Nimes. LEGO as well, they decided to position themselves on a number of units. And so in these cases, we can re-let very effectively with very interesting reversion rates. Okay, that's fine. But with regards to the reversion rates that you mentioned, plus 13%, I believe, but if I remember well, there was already a negative reversion rates in 2021 due to Camaieu. But that was limited, actually. The first units which were re-let were the most demanded. So that will make it possible for you to have high rents. And then with regards to the reversion rates that we communicate every year, that's an average. And usually, that's 13% on average for reversion rates. And fun fact with regards to Camaieu and its business model, as Elizabeth said that we had a franchise that was interested in the Reunion Island and they actually do not want to close their store. They bought as much stock as they could because there's so much demand from consumers and customers. So there you have it. That illustrates the customers' appetite for physical retail.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[Interpreted] With regards to the mix and your merchandising, in your press release, you wanted to have 20% of products representing 80% of customers. So 20% of products for 80% of customers, Pareto law. So the question is, in your assets and in your strategy, when it comes to the differentiation of brands, which are not necessarily present on other brands, what would be the impact for large shopping centers? Well, make no mistake. That difference in positioning and in offering that will not really have an impact on your business performance, the products that are the most consumed in the world or those that are bought by everyone. So you want to have the right appetite on the products that are the most sought after. So for example, your typical club, which will be very popular for 6 months and only to disappear afterwards.
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] So history -- historically, we've had that 20-80 positioning. 20% of products consumed in 80% of cases. So recurring consumption leading to constant cash flow and sustainable results for retailers and ourselves and that's exactly what we are looking for to have that recurring result. Everyone wants to buy a pair of Nike runners, wants to buy Coca-Cola. So if you do not have these products, you're bound to fail. By positioning yourself on a niche market, you may have something that's a little too short term. And so we decided to opt for the second model. I'm not saying that the first model isn't sustainable, but it's not our choice.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[Interpreted] Another question on investment. You spoke about the spread and the refinancing costs. If you target acquisitions with a yield level of 7%, are there already opportunities on the market with such yield rates?
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] Well, as per our communication, this is a topic that's close to our heart. As we announced last year, we're working on it. We have identified indeed market opportunities. We're taking our time. We want to do things well at the right time. We want to be in control. And in the past 6 or 9 months, clearly, the macroeconomic context was so unstable that we could not be in control. And that's something that we do not like. We would much rather work in a controlled climate.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[Interpreted] Okay. So already opportunities with a rate of 7%. But how can you reconcile 7% kind of assets with a yield rate that's at 5.71% that was just up by 4 bp over the past 6 months?
Unknown Executive
executiveWell, that's because you think that these assets that we may acquire or as well managed as those that we already have. And in fact, it's been seen in the past certain assets that we've disposed of, which we're doing quite well. And then once we disposed of them, they did not do quite as well. And conversely, no magic here. We have a certain know-how. We have specific and general skills in this business. We have -- we can answer all needs from marketing to the capacity for casual lessees to be successful to the capacity to look for the right retailer in the right spot. And all of that does for excellent performance over time. That's how you can create value. Our job is to buy well, to add value and to sell well. That's what we do. And I believe that's been illustrated historically time and again by our results.
Florent Laroche-Joubert
analyst[Interpreted] Florent Laroche-Joubert from ODDO. I have 2 questions. Number one, could you speak about your rental business in the start of 2023? Are you in line with the trend that you observed in 2022? Has anything changed? Second question, EUR 87 million of disposals in 2022. Will you dispose of more assets in '23? One third question on asset valuation and appraisal. Clearly, everything is resilient, perhaps above our own expectations. But there is a talk of a potential freeze in the investment market. So maybe in the next 6 to 9 months once the interest rates have stabilized, are you confident with regards to your capacity to sell at such levels?
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] In terms of the question of disposals, yes, we don't carry out forced sales. We've been balanced for several years on our balance sheet. So sometimes -- so you could say that everything is up for sale. We don't have any notion of trophy assets, so we can adapt to what we want to sell in the medium term to any opportunities that may come up and adapt it to investor appetite as well. And this is why in 2021, 2022 and the -- so the disposal of hypermarket, so Monoprix was an excellent condition. So this fulfilled one of our targets that -- which was to bring down exposure to Casino and also to diversify risk. So we have an approach which is very opportunistic. And currently, we have an LTV rate of 35.3%. So we have a profile, therefore, which is very balanced. We don't need to sell things necessarily. If we can make decisions based on the level of investment in order to preserve well, we have a certain leeway today and we continue to feed into that, so sell off some mature assets or risky ones. So we always have to adopt that kind of dynamic. In terms of valorization now, I don't know whether we should say that we are surprised. We have this environment where rates were going up and levels of expertise from Mercialys, which were -- which seemed very reasonable. But in terms of the expertise, the revenue did very well. So we've seen the organic growth there. You can see that in the profit and loss of the company, but we also see it in terms of the expertise, the appraisals. And so this good dynamic then saw a slight increase in terms of rates. But if we look at the spread between the level of appraisal and the risk and the buffer that we've been using for several years, well, and which is very meaningful. We -- this has also been confirmed and confirmed the fact that these appraisals that didn't really change much despite the disposals in 2021. So investors and analysts tend to say, okay, well, watch your disposing. This doesn't represent all of your assets. So -- but we think it's quite a faithful reflection. We sold off some disposals in terms of food store and also some shopping malls. These were small size shopping malls, so which were a number of financial investments were considered as secondary assets. But they were sold at the appraisal value. But also we have the ability to send -- to sell isolated plots. So we're talking about EUR 12 million here. So this -- so even if we sell off isolated low. So there's a type of investor out there, which is very -- and the profile of that investor is very varied. So the fact that the investment market in terms of commercial real estate is being boosted due to institutional investors for this category of asset. And given the seasonal -- or the [indiscernible] effect that you might see in terms of offices and logistics, so there's a better distribution of potential buyers. So we don't consider this is a lackluster environment consider this is a cautious environment, and this is quite normal given the global context. And so let me -- like a link to the first question, commercial dynamics. So it's the same thing there. So it's not about the kind of wait-and-see but something is going quite well. But there's no need to feel too triumphant about this. So we can be serene about this without being overoptimistic. So we have -- we're confident, but we're also cautious at the same time. So I think that this is a flavor of the market at the moment.
Pierre-Emmanuel Clouard
analyst[Interpreted] Pierre-Emmanuel Clouard. I just want to go over this idea of disposals. So there's a portfolio which is up for sale and this is held with BNP and this will be coming on to the market. So I just wanted to understand if it's very complicated to sell in kind of a co-investment structures. So -- and also, what about your co-partners in terms of these hypermarkets? Do they want to speed up these disposals? And then also after that question, I'd like to know if the -- you're thinking about renegotiating the leases with Casino. Some of these will reach maturity in 2027. And given the financial solidity of Casino which is sometimes rather risky, have you started negotiations with them to renegotiate the leases?
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] Well, concerning the leases for Casino, the Casino Group, so we've got the maturity in 2027 with specific clauses which can be -- so those releases can be reconducted. So food stores is growing, but it's difficult to get authorizations for this type of hypermarket, which is doing quite well at the moment. So there's no specific demand on their side, but also there's no specific need. The renewal clauses have already been formulized. So on our side, there's no particular concern in this respect. They had some 3-year deadlines. So if there were any assets that were particularly fragile, I think that we would know that already. In terms -- and the first question was what?
Pierre-Emmanuel Clouard
analyst[Interpreted] So disposals with BNP.
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] So in terms of what Elizabeth described a moment ago, it's so true that an SCPI or an OPC doesn't have the same timeline as we do. There are certain maturities concerning those particular products and those require liquidity. So it's -- that's not necessarily our strategy because we have an approach, which is much more opportunistic and which is about the long-term. So here, we are dealing with the partners with a certain timeline. So they wanted to kind of sound out the market in terms of the time involved. And we are not necessarily adopting the same approach, but we do have a partnership. We look into things. And we have strong demands. We're very demanding in terms of what we think is acceptable. And as we have done for all our disposals up to now, so we're dealing with the disposal procedure. You have to sound out the market first. It's not selling off at any old price. So there are certain demands in terms of a partnership, price levels. Things have to be well organized. So there's no urgency there. So -- and you don't say that we're going to sell by a certain timeline. So BNP is kind of the driver in terms of these disposals. Well, the partners have an organizational agreement, so they can make some demands. In terms of your hypermarkets, Casinos, there are very few of those. There are 4 left. So excluding BNP -- it was the answer to that question, which was off mic. So in terms of holding hypermarkets and the scope with BNP, it's hypermarkets basically and then we have 4 hypermarkets 100%. And that we have some in Corsica, which are owned to the tune of 60%. And then we also have 2 hypermarkets for Monoprix and a company which is given by the equity method. Sorry, this gentleman speaking off mic. So you don't think that you're going to continue this disposal. So if we have any opportunities like we have in 2022 and see, for example, in terms of valorization and the proposals which are satisfactory, once again, we will -- we said that we want to reduce the exposure to Casino. And if there are opportunities even outside the portfolio with BNP, we will look into those just to specify things, we think. And this is something which made our strategy and which makes our strategy in terms of disposal very strong. It's preferable to never force a sale and to respond positively to sales rather to be part of a sales contact. So if some vehicles with more institutional function and if they need to go through brokerage and test the market in order to get the right price level, then the market tends to react badly because people say, "Okay, they're selling it off, then they need to sell it off." So -- but we try to be opportunistic. It's preferable to respond to a certain demand when that exists and when there's no price pressure. And this is what we've done up to now. And this has worked very well up to now. So -- but then in terms of the process, we're part of this process. But anyway, we'll wait and see. Okay, so it hasn't been done yet.
Pierre-Emmanuel Clouard
analyst[Interpreted] In terms of acquisitions, so how much do you rate your maximum acquisition value?
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] Well, it depends on the acquisitions that we want to do. So if you look at the level of the LTV level, so we've been in a cruising mode for several -- so really as we're talking about EUR 80 million to EUR 100 million.
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] Thank you. Any telephone questions? Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We don't have any telephone questions.
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] Okay. Thank you for your attention. And I'd like to wish you a great year 2023, which is problem-free. [Portions of this transcript that are marked [Interpreted] were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]
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