Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
August 3, 2026
What were the key takeaways from Merck & Co., Inc.'s August 3, 2026 earnings call?
In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK:US) reported strong advancements in its HIV treatment pipeline, particularly with the positive Phase III results from the islatravir and lenacapavir studies. Revenue figures and earnings per share were not disclosed in the transcript, but management emphasized a significant long-term market opportunity, projecting over $5 billion in revenue by the mid-2030s from new HIV treatments and prevention options. The company maintained its commitment to innovation in HIV therapies, signaling robust growth potential in this sector.
What topics did Merck & Co., Inc. cover?
- Positive Phase III Results: Management highlighted 'positive Phase III results from the ILN 1 and ILN 2 studies' for the islatravir and lenacapavir regimen, indicating strong efficacy and safety profiles. The regimen demonstrated over 90% viral suppression rates, supporting its potential as a first once-weekly oral treatment for HIV.
- Innovative Treatment Options: Merck is advancing a 'new approved daily treatment option' and a 'potentially first once-weekly oral treatment regimen' for HIV, which could significantly reduce pill burden for patients. The management emphasized the importance of these innovations in addressing the evolving needs of HIV patients.
- Market Opportunity: Management projected a 'greater than $5 billion non-risk-adjusted opportunity' in the HIV market by the mid-2030s, driven by both treatment and prevention options. This reflects confidence in the growth of the HIV treatment market, which is expected to grow from $26 billion to $32 billion.
- Collaboration with Gilead: Merck's collaboration with Gilead on the weekly oral regimen involves a 60-40 split on global development costs and a 50-50 revenue share up to $2 billion. This partnership is seen as crucial for bringing innovative treatment options to market quickly.
- Patient Preferences and Compliance: Management noted that 'weekly oral therapy offers a less frequent dosing approach' which aligns with patient preferences, addressing issues like treatment fatigue and stigma. This is expected to enhance compliance among patients living with HIV.
What were Merck & Co., Inc.'s August 3, 2026 results?
- Projected Market Opportunity: $5B (Projected revenue from new HIV treatments and prevention options by the mid-2030s.)
- Viral Suppression Rate (ILN 1): 90% (Demonstrated efficacy in Phase III trial against daily treatment regimens.)
- Viral Suppression Rate (ILN 2): 95% (Efficacy rate in open-label study, indicating strong patient satisfaction.)
- Development Cost Share with Gilead: 60-40 (Merck's share of global development costs for the weekly oral regimen.)
- Expected Growth of HIV Treatment Market: $32B (Projected market size by the mid-2030s, up from $26 billion.)
- Patient Switch Rate: 1 in 5 (Percentage of patients living with HIV who switch therapies annually.)
Merck's advancements in HIV treatment, particularly the promising Phase III results and innovative product pipeline, position the company favorably in a growing market. The collaboration with Gilead and focus on patient-centric solutions are key catalysts for future growth. Investors should monitor the regulatory progress and market reception of these new therapies as potential risks and opportunities unfold.
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorWelcome to the Merck & Company Inc. Rawa New Jersey USA. Investor Event following the 2026 International AIDS Conference. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Peter Dannenbaum, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Peter Dannenbaum
executiveThank you, Amanda. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Merck's HIV Investor Event following the 26th International AIDS Conference that took place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil last week. Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that some of the statements that we make today may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are made based on the current beliefs of our company's management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. If for our underlying assumptions prove inaccurate or uncertainties materialize, actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. Our SEC filings, including Item 1A in the 2025 10-K, identify certain risk factors and cautionary statements that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from those projected in any of our forward-looking statements made this morning. Merck & Company Incorporated Rahway, New Jersey USA undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements. During today's call, a slide presentation will accompany our speakers' prepared remarks. These slides and our SEC filings are posted to the Investor Relations section of our company's website. Joining me today are Dr. Eliav Barr, Senior Vice President and Chief Medical Officer; Dr. Liz Rhee, Vice President of Clinical Research for Infectious Diseases, and Brian Foard, Executive Vice President and President, Specialty Pharma and Infectious Diseases business unit. Now moving to the agenda. Eliav will begin with an overview of the HIV landscape and our strategy. Liz will then discuss the data that was presented at AID2026 and Brian will finish by discussing the commercial opportunity associated with our portfolio before we then move to Q&A. During Q&A, we will be joined by Gregg Szabo, Head of our global HIV franchise. With that, let me turn it over to Eliav.
Eliav Barr
executiveThank you, Peter. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We are meeting at an exciting time for our HIV development program. It AIDS 2026 we presented important updates across several programs that have a potential to improve outcomes for individuals living with or at risk of HIV infection. Most notably, we shared positive Phase III results from the ILN 1 and ILN 2 studies. -- evaluating once-weekly islatravir plus lenacapavir while continuing to advance our broader efforts in both treatment and prevention. Now before discussing our strategy and the data presented at the AES conference, I wanted to step back and frame how we think about HIV today. For more than 4 decades, Merck has remained committed to HIV research innovation. Over that period, the HIV epidemic has transformed from a uniformly fatal disease into a chronic, manageable condition for many people around the world. At the same time, we are far from ending the damage caused by this epidemic. Despite the availability of active anti-retroviral regimens and prophylaxis options, we are far from meeting the 2030 goals. Public health authorities have set some years ago. Progress has slowed for many reasons. The most important of which are the known limitations of current HIV treatment and prevention regimens and the evolving nature of the epidemic. Now putting a real dent into the HIV epidemic will require a diverse set of highly efficacious treatment and prevention strategies that reduce the burden on people and practitioners and fit seamlessly into the fabric of the communities impacted by HIV. Now many of the medical tools needed to further reduce the impact of the HIV epidemic are already within reach in our pipeline. -- we have focused on developing simple, easy-to-use pills that can be highly effective oral treatment and prevention regimens. Now we've made tremendous progress over the past year in our clinical development program. We now have a new approved daily treatment option, positive Phase III data supporting a potentially first once-weekly oral treatment regimen. Continued advancement of another weekly oral program to provide more choice and ongoing Phase III development of a monthly oral prep. Phil. Today, we're excited to share with you our innovative weekly oral approach to treatment and monthly approach to prevention. With that, let me turn Liz Rhee. Liz?
Elizabeth Rhee
executiveThank you, Elias. Good morning, everyone. I'm so pleased to be here this morning to share with you the data we presented at ASE 2026 across both of our weekly oral treatment programs. I'll begin with the Phase III results for islatravir lenacapavir and then discuss the Phase II data for islatravir lunivirine and the path forward into Phase III. This slide highlights how dramatically HIV treatment has evolved over the past decade. It has progressed from the early days when complex regimens required as many as 16 pills per day or more than 5,800 pills per year to the modern single tablet regimens that are taken daily. Today, we are evaluating the potential for once-weekly oral treatment, reducing the floor for pill burden from 365 tablets per year to just 52. The data we presented at ADS on our 2 weekly oral treatment programs that are given weekly support that next step in HIV treatment evolution. We'll start with ILandND-1, which is a global Phase III double-blinded study evaluating islatravir lenacapavir, once-weekly 2-drug combination given orally against the daily 3-drug treatment of bictegravir FTC PA studied in virologically suppressed adults. In this trial, a total of 607 participants were randomized 1:1 to each treatment group. The primary endpoint was HIV RNA greater than or equal to 50 copies per milliliter at week 48 by the FDA's snapshot analysis. Secondary endpoints included rates of viral suppression, CD4 cell count changes and treatment discontinuations. Results for -- in ION-1 for islatravir and lenacapavir show that non-inferior efficacy was achieved against the comparator istegravir FTC TAF. The regimen demonstrated efficacy as well in terms of rates of viral suppression, which were above 90% through week 48, and importantly, there was no treatment emergent resistance to either ezlotivir or lenacapavir in this trial. These strong efficacy results support the potential for logabilicapavir as the first complete once-weekly oral treatment regimen for HIV. In Islend-2, the second Phase III trial, we also evaluated islatravir lenacapavir, but in this study, the design was open label and the comparator was a variety of daily oral treatment regimens. In this study, we enrolled 626 participants to randomize to these 2 regimens. And similar to Islend-2, azatalenocapavir also demonstrated non-inferior efficacy rates of viral suppression as well in this study remained high at approximately 95%. Importantly, in Islend-2 because of the open-label study design, we had the opportunity to examine participant satisfaction with weekly oral treatment. Participants reported being more satisfied with is logabilenecatavir than with their standard of care therapies that they had come in on. And as well found as logic alenacapavir to be less of a burden compared with daily oral. We were very satisfied and we are very pleased to see the satisfaction rates. In addition, safety across Island 1 and Island 2 were consistent. Islatravir lenacapavir was well tolerated with a safety profile comparable to etegravir/FTC TAF and standard of care regimens. There were no clinically meaningful changes in lymphocytes, CD4 counts or body weights that were observed. And there were no participants discontinued due to declines in CD4 or absolute lymphocyte counts Taken together, these data support the potential for islatravir and [indiscernible] to become the first 1 oral once-weekly oral single-tablet regimen for the treatment of HIV. Across both Phase III studies, we observed high rates of viral suppression, no resistant signals and safety and tolerability comparable with the control arms. We look forward to submitting isltravir and aleicapivir to global regulatory authorities and working to bring this innovative weekly option. -- to appropriate people living with HIV as quickly as possible. I'll now turn to our wholly owned investigational once-weekly oral treatment regimen containing islatravir and ilanivarine. As we've discussed in the past, the once weekly 2-drug combination of islatravir and ulonivirine has the potential to be the smallest weekly pill approved, with no loading dose and a favorable DDI profile. In addition, this is being evaluated, not just everilogically suppressed, but also in treatment-naive participants. At AIDS 2026, we presented data from the Phase IIb trial of islatravir and ulonivirine. With week 24 results demonstrating that the combination maintained viral suppression and demonstrated efficacy comparable to continuing daily bictegravir FCC Pat. There were no participants on the islatravir and ulonivirine group with an HIV RNA greater than or equal to 50 copies per mL and viral suppression rates were high at over 94% of participants remaining suppressed. Importantly, there were no treatment-emergent resistance cases detected. In this trial in islatravir and ulonivirine was generally well tolerated. There were no new safety concerns identified. In addition, the adverse event profile was comparable to bictegravir FTC has, and we observed no meaningful effect on lymphocyte counts or CD4 accounts. Based on these results, we plan to advance islatravir and ulonivirine into a comprehensive Phase III program. The sempra studies will evaluate this combination in both virologically suppressed adults switching from daily therapy and in adults with HIV without prior treatment experience. The Phase III trials in virologically suppressed adults ZYMfORIA #1 and #2 are anticipated to open in the first half of 2027. Sofora #3, the study in treatment-naive participants is a Phase II/III trial. The Phase II component has been completely enrolled. -- and we anticipate results in the first half of 2027. With that, I'll turn it over to Brian.
Brian Foard
executiveThank you so much, Liz, and good morning to everyone. I'd like to first start off by saying that it is particularly exciting to join a company with such a rich history over 4 decades and enduring commitment to HIV. I'm energized by the science, the innovation and the possibility of helping provide new options for HIV prevention and treatment. Now as you heard from Eliav's continued progress against the HIV epidemic will require a diverse set of prevention and treatment strategies. The HIV landscape is also continuing to evolve people with HIV or aging. Roughly 1/3 of people living with HIV have comorbidities today and the need to manage multiple different therapies for comorbidities is likely to increase. While the existing anti-retroviral medicines are generally safe and effective, certain classes also can impact renal, bone and other areas of health differently, further highlighting the need for multiple treatment options with different mechanisms. And for the majority of people living with HIV who choose daily oral treatment options, despite the important progress that has been made, the daily pill burden remains. Daily dosing can contribute to treatment fatigue and stress as well as concerns about inherent HIV status disclosure. In prevention, opportunity remains to reach more people who could benefit from HIV prep. Starting and remaining on prep can be complex and many people who could benefit from prevention remain unreached. We are advancing a series of potential options designed to address these evolving needs. Avino, our newly approved once-daily oral treatment marks the beginning of a broader portfolio strategy. Avinzo is the first and only non-entity tenofovir free once-daily complete 2-drug regimen to demonstrate noninferior efficacy in a head-to-head Phase III trial versus 3-drug regimen F/TAF. Avinza provides people living with HIV an important new option when looking for switch therapy. The key drivers of switch include tolerability desire for simplification from multiple tablet regimens to 2 drug single-tablet regimens, comorbidities and drug-drug interaction considerations. We're pleased with the launch progress so far, including the early access announcements and look forward to access ramping up over time. Beyond Envinzo, we are preparing to bring forward weekly oral treatment options and looking ahead to our entry into prep where we are aiming to launch the first monthly tablet. I will address each of these opportunities in turn. We are particularly excited about the potential for Islend to be the first once-weekly oral treatment option. The need for additional treatment options remains clear as many people living with HIV continue to experience challenges related to daily dosing fatigue, stigma and the practical constraints of injectable therapies. Weekly oral therapy offers a less frequent dosing approach that aligns with preferences frequently expressed by people living with HIV. In collaboration with Gilead, we look forward to sharing the positive results from Islend-1 and Islend-2 with regulatory authorities with the goal of bringing sale to adults living with virologically suppressed HIV as quickly as possible. One of the strengths of this opportunity is that it combines what we believe is a highly differentiated product profile with the capabilities of 2 global organizations with a shared commitment to advancing innovation for people living with HIV. From a launch perspective, planning is already well underway. The collaboration structure allows both organizations to prepare for commercialization while coordinating around a shared global strategy. For the long-acting oral program, Gilead will lead commercialization in the United States and Merck will lead outside of the U.S. Finally, I'd like to briefly touch on Alimatravir, our investigational monthly oral prep. This differentiated approach offers the potential for discrete monthly dosing and a rapid onset of protection predicted within 1 hour. Alimatravir as a molecule developed specifically for prevention. The Express of 10 and 11 trials are anticipated to read out in 2027. Recently, we announced initial plans intended to support rapid, broad and sustainable access to Alimatravir in low and middle income countries, should it ultimately be approved. Those plans include voluntary licensing agreements covering more than 129 countries, support for regional manufacturing capabilities and investments intended to facilitate timely access following approval. We believe innovation has the greatest impact when it reaches the people who need it most, and this announcement reflects our long-standing commitment to HIV and global access. Now stepping back, we believe the combination of Avinza, Iselin, IsoLo and Alimatravir creates a meaningful long-term opportunity. We see an opportunity of greater than billion on a non-risk-adjusted basis by the mid-2030s. These programs reflect a long-term commitment to advancing HIV science and a vision for a future in which prevention and treatment are increasingly simple, accessible and fit seamlessly into the fabric of the communities impacted by HIV. And with that, I'll hand the call back over to Peter.
Peter Dannenbaum
executiveThank you, Brian. Amanda. We're now ready to begin the question-and-answer portion of the call. Before we get started, I'd like to request that today's questions remain focused on our HIV treatment and prevention programs.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Trung Huynh with RBC.
Trung Huynh
analystSo just 2 questions from outside. The Islend 2 CD4 data that showed continuing -- continually gradual decline of the ISO LEN arm versus Biktarvy over 48 weeks, even though both arms ended at equivalent levels. Islend-1 and the ISO Ulu Phase IIb, they were both modestly better than Biktarvy on this metric, which helps contextualize. But how are you interpreting the Island 2 curve divergence? Is that a baseline imbalance artifact? -- the class signal you're monitoring or something that you believe will fully resolve at 96 weeks? And how does FDA engage with this in the context of labeling discussions? And then second question, just can you walk us through the planned ISOuLu/SIMPORIA Phase III program in the treatment experience patients specifically design, enrollment time line, any expected readout -- and relatedly, what does the 48-week secondary endpoints and treatment-naive Phase II/III data need to show for you to be confident in an NDA path towards that 2030 approval target?
Eliav Barr
executiveThanks for the questions. This is Eliav Barr and I'll moderate, but I'll take the first 1 and then Liz can take the second one. With respect to the CD4 content Islend 2, there was a small statistical difference in change in baseline CD4 T cell can at the week 48 time point. But we didn't consider it to be clinically meaningful for a variety of reasons. First, as you noted, none of this was seen in Islend-1 nor in the Phase II ULO studies. There was a baseline imbalance as you also noted, the CD4 T cell comp was higher in the Alen group compared to standard of care at baseline and the changes were greater in those -- the changes that we observed in terms of CD4 cons were greater in those with the highest baseline counts. So we think that it's probably a regression to the mean. And we looked at a variety of different other factors in the studies, including the percent changes in baseline CD4 T cell counts and discontinuations and other metrics that both Gilead and Merck together assessed from the perspective of changes in CD4 counts. None of these were any -- were statistically significant. And so bottom line is that we don't see this as being at all clinically meaningful. We don't anticipate this to be a problem with this drug or any islatravir containing regimen going forward. And in terms of the SYMFORIA trials, let me turn it over to Liz.
Elizabeth Rhee
executiveSure. Thanks, Eliav. So for the Velogica suppressed indication, we are planning 2 studies, as I indicated earlier, SIFI and SYMFORIA to both of these studies in terms of primary endpoints would follow FDA guidance with the primary endpoint being those with viral load greater than equal to 5 analyzed by the FDA snapshot. We would also be looking carefully at safety, of course, in these studies. And I think with INFRA number 1, which is an open-label study, we would have opportunity as well here to collect PRO or patient-reported outcomes, such as satisfaction as we had done in other weekly trials. At this point, we are anticipating starting the studies in the first half of next year. The details of the secondary endpoints and time lines of the trial, we don't really have ready to share at this point in time, but we will share them in the future when they are ready. We are in the process of sharing our plans and discussing with the FDA.
Eliav Barr
executiveBut just to make -- to be clear, I mean, I think the SYMFORIA studies are going to be very important. -- addition on the Q week regimen. Just to remind everyone, we'll have both treatment experience and treatment-naive patients. This is something we heard loud and clear at the HIV meetings, a lot of interest in starting people right on QE to really help them in that period of time when they're still grappling with the fact that they're HIV positive. So we're really looking forward to starting those studies, and we'll let you know about the time lines when we are more set with them.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Mohit Bansal with Wells Fargo.
Mohit Bansal
analystMy question is regarding some feedback we get from both experts as well as Glen is also talking a little bit about is that integrase inhibitors are considered the gold standard of treatment in HIV as of now, I mean if you look at the guidelines, there are like 4 integration inhibitor combos there. But your tutor combo does not include integrated inhibitors just yet. How do you think about when you agree with that? Number two, how do you think about the positioning of your [indiscernible] based combinations or is there a subpopulation out there that could actually benefit from these combinations rather than this being a frontline agent?
Eliav Barr
executiveFirst of all, as you know, we were the discoverers of the integrase class, but I think that it's important to have options for patients -- these options are very, very -- this is a very long-lasting disease requires many, many different options. I'll turn it over to Liz to talk a little bit about how we've -- what we've heard and what we're thinking about in terms of the ins free regimens.
Elizabeth Rhee
executiveRight. So the feedback we've heard is that there is a need for options for patients that are regimens that don't contain inverse inhibitors. Remember, this is a chronic infection. People are aging now with HIV, meaning that they have carried a cytosis sometimes for decades, and one type of regimen is not going to fit all. So one size does not fit all. In addition, as people living with HIV H and deal with comorbidities, there is a particular concern on effects, for example, on cardiometabolic factors on weight that can lead to people needing to switch due to tolerability issues as well, drug-drug interactions as people are taking more medicines for their comorbidities. So Eliav, to your point, we hear loud and clear from providers and also patients themselves, people living with HIV that they want more options and that integrates is not going to solve every problem for them.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital Markets.
Malcolm Hoffman
analystMalcolm Hoffman on for Evan. So you framed a $5 billion nonrisk-adjusted opportunity in the mid-2030s from new and potential HIV launches. I know this reflects Merck's share of collaboration revenues. Can you help us think about the relative contribution of treatment versus Prep within that $5 billion target?
Eliav Barr
executiveI'll ask Brian and Greg to address.
Brian Foard
executiveAnd I think it's a really great question. And just as we're talking about today, think about it overall, first and foremost, -- we're talking about 4 potential therapies. One is approved in the marketplace today with Avendo and then 3 additional potential options for those living with HIV or looking for PrEP. And so we framed it first and foremost in the treatment category. The treatment category today in 2025 is about $26 billion. We're expecting that to continue to grow to more like $32 billion by the mid-2030s. We're also expecting the prep market space today, which is a much smaller market space it's about $4 billion today. We expect that to more than double over time. And we see this as a significant and meaningful reason for us to be in this space with these potential therapies. But maybe, Greg, if you want to give a little bit more detail to it.
Gregg Szabo
executiveYes. Thank you, Brian. I would really start by mentioning the very positive reception that we had at the Congress last week for our data and for our portfolio. We had a strong positive reaction across scientific leaders, prescribers and advocates. And I -- it really gives us growing confidence in our potential to achieve that greater than $5 billion revenue by the mid-2030s. I think as Brian laid out, we've got several options. And each of these programs is well differentiated and I think brings significant value to the space. In talking about the treatment market, which is the larger market, we do see evolution today, and we expect it to continue into the future towards 2 drug regimens and also towards long-acting regimens. Ultimately, we expect long-acting regimens to represent a solid majority of patients by the mid-2030s. And we feel the Q weekly orals will have a strong place within that segment. Each of these assets, including alimatrevir in the prep space will be contributors to that overall $5 billion number. And I think alimatrevir just has such an exciting profile with rapid onset once-monthly discrete oral dosing, and we believe that also will be an important option within the prep space.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Alex Hammond with Wolfe Research.
Alexandria Hammond
analystCan you kind of walk us through how we think about alumatrivir in the context of a market that's actively organizing around injectable who the target patient population is how you're thinking about that window before yes and altitude, establish those the prescriber and infrastructure relationships, what the access and pricing strategy may also look like in both the high income and high burden markets.
Eliav Barr
executiveThanks for the question. Let me start by saying that for the PrEP market, what we've heard very loud and clear is the need to have regimens that are seamlessly integrated into communities that require minimal medical intervention, that enable patients to have access in various locations that don't require the need for advanced care. And with all of that in mind, we think that an oral monthly would be very, very useful indeed. In fact, if I had to say what was just a wow moment for everyone at the meaning was alimatrivir. We could not get away from anyone who wanted to say something about alimatevir, to think about alimatravir as part of their treatment regimens and so on. Maybe I'll turn it over to Greg to talk a little bit about his impressions.
Gregg Szabo
executiveThanks, Eliav. And I would start by saying that despite the availability of a number of highly effective prep alternatives today, either daily oral or injectable. We still see many new infections. And we still see that a relatively small percentage of people who can benefit from PrEP are actually taking it regularly. Certainly, less than half the people in the United States and less than 1 in 5 globally. And there can be a number of reasons for this. Some of them are just low perception of risk on the part of the patient or low awareness of prep, but there's also a number that are potentially mediated by the drug profile itself. And these include things like concerns about side effects or tolerability. The stigma that's associated with using PrEP and also suboptimal ease of implementation and accessibility within the health care system. So we feel very confident in an oral once monthly pill. We believe this is something that's easy to access. It -- in that it doesn't require HCP administration the fast onset of action, that was something that got a lot of favorable feedback at the conference last week. Current options often take days to be effective. we believe that Alimatravir can be effective within an hour. It also has a favorable DDI profile, which can be really important within this population. And with regards to stigma, this is something that can be very discretely taken or stored to really protect the user's privacy and avoid stigma. So ultimately, we feel like this opens up new models of implementation to increase the number of people using Prep, and we also feel it has a very strong value proposition relative to all the other options that will be available.
Brian Foard
executiveMaybe just a couple of extra points here. While it's too early to really specifically speak about the access strategy as it relates to that. We do think that it does have a compelling value proposition and key differentiation which should assist in gaining access. We're also too, and I want to make this point because I think it's an important one. We're encouraged by the SCOTUS ruling for the USPSTF that was important for individuals to access prep with no out-of-pocket cost and has implications for all preventative and services and medicines. And so the environment is set up for innovation. And so we're excited about potentially bringing that innovation.
Peter Dannenbaum
executiveGreat. Thanks, Alex.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Geoff Meacham with Citibank.
Geoffrey Meacham
analystAnother one on the weekly oral, I just wanted to get some perspective on the PK/PD. Do you have residual drug extending beyond a week? I'm just thinking about real-world compliance and the risk of resistance. And then commercially, would you view this as a switch opportunity at the onset? Or is it more upstream to perhaps newly diagnosed patients?
Eliav Barr
executiveSo let me ask Liz to talk a little bit about PK/PD and the forgiveness that's already in the -- in our Q regimens. And then I'll ask Brian and Greg to talk about the commercial potential. Liz?
Elizabeth Rhee
executiveRight. So for both of the oral weekly regimens, istralapir and linicapivir as well as easier later bringing. The doses were selected to enable a window for forgiveness of about 7 days. And this is to take into account the fact that people may forget to take their dose on a certain day, may need a window to catch up essentially. So that week of forgiveness means that if you get your dose on a Monday, you have a week to get back on. And then if there -- if that window is exceeded for each of these programs, we have thought really carefully about how people would need to then restart the regimen. So this has been factored into the development program in the Phase III studies. So from that perspective, we feel that there will be very clear instructions for participants on what to do if they do miss a dose and outside of that forgiveness window.
Eliav Barr
executiveAnd indeed in the Phase III trials, compliance was extraordinarily high and a lot of satisfaction around the use of Keane D. But maybe I'll ask Brian and Greg to talk about the other piece.
Brian Foard
executiveMaybe just at a really high level, and then I'll pass it over to Greg for a bit more detail. Now we know, again, in the treatment space, as I mentioned before, this is 1 of the biggest areas today, and we anticipate it will continue to grow. And just as Liz nicely said, we believe it's because individuals like options, and this is really important to continue to bring options. I know you didn't necessarily specify which week the option, but it's exciting to be bringing to, to be quite frank. And so maybe Greg can give a bit more details about the 2 opportunities as we see it.
Gregg Szabo
executiveYes. Thanks, Brian. And I think you're right. I mean, options are important. Obviously, if you look at the daily market, there's been continued innovation there that ultimately has led to more and more satisfaction for patients as time has developed, and we think the same thing can happen with long-acting therapies as well. I start with sale, again, I think there was a great reaction at the Congress last week. This has the potential to be the first weekly oral regimen to market. There's really strong patient interest and it's highly differentiated. And I want to double down a bit on the patient interest because I think this is something that is really important from the perspective of the long-acting oral regimens. It has the potential to address Pill fatigue. This is an important issue for people living with HIV. And also the potential to address what can be injection fatigue. I mean, any -- this is designed ultimately for people who want more freedom that they can get with less frequent dosing, but not be tied to a physician visit for administration. So obviously, we're excited about is a lens because it brings together 2 highly potent agents that have the potential to maintain the viral suppression and do it with reduced dosing frequency. But then if we move to IzlUlo, this is also a highly effective program based on our Phase II data so far. -- effective with a small 2-drug tablet. This has the potential to be the first weekly regimen that will address treatment-naive patients. As Eliav mentioned earlier, this could be an important opportunity to really start people, especially when they're undergoing reaction to being diagnosed with -- also importantly, there's no loading dose associated with Isle. As I mentioned, the small pill and it has a favorable DDI profile. So we believe that the unmet needs and the desire to switch to easy oral dosing for a once-weekly will persist beyond the launch of [indiscernible] and we see is izulo continuing to expand that market category. And over time, we feel the biggest opportunity is really moving people from daily to weekly supported by a portfolio of differentiated options.
Peter Dannenbaum
executiveGreat. Thank you, Geoff.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Vamil Divan with Guggenheim Securities.
Vamil Divan
analystSo maybe 2 follow-ups on one, just on the comments you were just making around ISOs. So I appreciate some what you said there on the benefits that YUGO may provide in terms of no loading dose, smaller pill, favorable DDIs. What about the other way around, if both of them are available, what would be the benefits of Isola other than maybe getting to the market first. And then the second, you spoke previously around the $5 billion commercial opportunity and the sort of breakdown between CRE versus treatment. I'm curious if you can give any sort of similar breakdown on how you see the U.S. versus the ex U.S. contribution that created a $5 billion number.
Eliav Barr
executiveThanks so much, Vamil. Let me take the first, and then we can talk about the commercial elements. So it's exciting to have atrial lenacapavir as the first drug because lenacapavir safety profile and efficacy profile are well known and understood. They're part of a lot of lenacapavir as part of a lot of regimens. And so we have here a new class of drug that has a strong and well-defined efficacy safety profile. And people are aware of the drug-drug interactions that one needs to keep in mind. So the islatrapri and [indiscernible] cap, I think, will be an excellent first option and a continued option over the course of the years along with the letabirliniverine. So if I could switch to Greg.
Gregg Szabo
executiveYes. Thanks, Eliav. I would just say that this product, these products are highly differentiated, and I think they're going to have a big impact in that regard outside the U.S. as well as in the U.S. We're not specifically breaking down the opportunity across geographies at this point in time. But I would say one could imagine something similar to the breakdown in the current market for HIV.
Brian Foard
executiveOne last point that I'd make about that, too, is we get this question commonly about these 2 assets. I think one is important. The first asset actually comes with the power of 2 organizations that have been in this space for a long, long time. But we think about that space, the long-acting is really where the growth is going to be in the future. And so we believe that marketplace is going to be largely dominated by the long-acting therapies. And so while we don't -- we're excited about bringing 2 therapies. We're not necessarily thinking about one versus the other. We think the space is going to have options, and we think a lot of the growth is going to be there for the longer acting treatment versus PrEP.
Peter Dannenbaum
executiveYes. Good. Thank you, Vamil.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Chris Schott with JPMorgan.
Christopher Schott
analystJust can we be back to the role of your initial weekly, the slate airline. Can you just elaborate a little bit more in terms of the role that can play in the treatment experience market? I guess, specifically, -- what percent of the market do you think this is going to address? And when you think about switches, how quickly you can ramp as you just think about that commercial opportunity? And then to my second question, just given some of your peers are pursuing injectables in both PrEP treatment. Is this an area Merck is looking to explore as you just -- you mentioned the market's bifurcating lots of options. Like is there an opportunity to take these assets into one of our treatment regimens?
Eliav Barr
executiveSo let me take the second one first, and then I'll turn it over to Brian and Greg. Of course, we're looking at all different options, and we have a robust discovery pipeline the past few years at Merck, we've really focused on simplification. And if you think about Lipfendra, for example, as a simplification option compared with injectables, and then you apply that to the HIV space. It's the reason why we spent a lot of time thinking about easy to administer, long-acting orals that will ultimately make it just much less complicated to get patients their medicines at -- with reasonable access. So that's where we are right now. But of course, we're looking at all the manner of opportunities to provide both treatment and prevention. We'll look at that in our discovery pipeline, and we'll be able to share some of that as the drugs progress into later development. So Brian, Greg?
Brian Foard
executiveSo maybe I'll start and then, Greg, if you want to add anything additional to it. I think first and foremost, the market today -- the treatment market today is largely daily therapies. I mean, so we believe the longer-acting therapies are going to play an important part, as I just mentioned a moment ago. And number two, as you look at today from a switch standpoint about 1 in 5 people living with HIV switch annually for a variety of reasons, tolerability, long-term toxicities concerns, comorbidities, as was mentioned before, and desires for simpler regimens. And so we believe, again, for a variety of reasons, it will create a significant opportunity there. But I don't know, Greg, if there's any additional points you want to make?
Gregg Szabo
executiveYes. I would just reinforce again that we do see current evolution in the market, both within and away from, I guess, the daily class. So within the daily class towards 2 drug regimens. -- and then towards 2 drug long-acting regimens. We do expect that to continue. And as mentioned earlier, we really expect the long-acting regimens to ultimately represent the solid majority of people within the market. Within that, we could -- we see a solid place for the Q Weeklys. We could see that ultimately getting to about overall, about 1/3 of the overall treatment market. And I would just reiterate the strong patient preference. And I think that will also help with the initial ramp is there is a strong patient-driven aspect to these long-acting oral therapies. There are people that want to get away from that daily pill and want to also may not be right for injectable treatment. So we do feel that progress will be substantial in this space.
Peter Dannenbaum
executiveGreat. Thanks, Chris.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Daina Graybosch with Leerink Partners.
Daina Graybosch
analystTwo on [indiscernible], trying to say that correctly. I wonder if you can talk about a weekly, monthly path versus a weekly oral prep, why monthly might be better or differentiated for weekly? And then the second question, you talked about the hours onset. Is that something you can measure as an outcome? And will you measure it in any of your registration trials so that gets on label? And does that matter for that differentiation to really get out there and be used by clinicians in the community?
Eliav Barr
executiveI'll ask Liz to comment on the clinical trials program. In terms of a weekly prepress monthly, the ideal for people who are in a prevention mode, right, this is not infected individuals is to have as little as possible need to do anything really to get protected. So just as much as a little -- I want to go somewhere to get an injection, you want to just get it and be done with it. So I think that the longer the interval on the oral, the better in that circumstance. The other piece of that is with regard to the second question, then I'll turn it over to Liz to talk about is I don't want to think about it and plan ahead because it's Saturday night, et cetera, et cetera. So being able to have your prep available and effective within an hour is consistent with what life is really like. And Liz, do you want to talk a little bit about the PK?
Elizabeth Rhee
executiveRight. So actually, a Cray earlier this year, we presented PK data for alomatrevir and justification for the 11-milligram monthly dose that was selected. And as part of the dose selection process, we look carefully at the PK and at the onset. And when we expect drug levels to be at the -- above the threshold that we expect to be efficacious. So the 11-milligram dose has this baked in where you'd expect levels to be protective within 1 hour. There's no need for a loading dose. There's no need for a higher dose to start with. I think the dosing regimen itself is quite simple because of these PK attributes. In terms of the label, I mean, the PK section of the label will include all of this data. We are collecting PK data in the Phase III program, and we'll be able to report that out.
Eliav Barr
executiveAnd I would add that there's been a lot of interest in the PEP study post-exposure prophylaxis program. and we are taking that under advisement. Maybe I'll turn it over to Greg for the commercial side.
Gregg Szabo
executiveYes. And maybe just one last comment that I would make that one of the key things for PrEP is avoiding the stigma associated with taking prep and having a longer option such as a monthly and an oral option where you're not having to have frequent trips to the physician to have that administered this can be very helpful. So a monthly versus a weekly, for example, just gives you less opportunities from being observed taking the product, it gives less opportunities for somebody finding stored products. So it allows for a lot more discretion that can really help to protect the user's privacy and we think this will ultimately be something that's very important within the community.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Carter Gould with Cantor Fitzgerald.
Carter Gould
analystI want to come back to ilimtrivir. As you think about the bar for efficacy here, I recognize that the studies are against B/F/TAF, but the cross-trial comparisons are pretty straightforward and purpose 1 and 2 set a pretty high numerical bar there. In light of all your commentary around the differentiating features. Does Merck sort of address this with potentially some more leniency on efficacy in terms of the bar they might be held to or from a clinical and regulatory perspective, is it going to be critical, they match that sort of very high 90s sort of what we saw in purpose 1 and 2?
Eliav Barr
executiveYes. The standard that is applied for all of the prep drugs are the same with -- in terms of regulatory agencies. And so our expectation is that this will need to have the same kind of efficacy that would meet those statistical criteria.
Peter Dannenbaum
executiveGreat. Thank you, Carter.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Jason Gerberry with Bank of America.
Jason Gerberry
analystJust 2 follow-ups. You mentioned potentially the ability to get 1/3 share in the treatment market. with his last river lens. What is your assumption regarding ability to take share from injectables? Do you view the injectable space as sort of a separate segment that's harder to claw away share? And is the assumption mainly that it's an oral switch -- and then as a follow-up, any updates? I know last time you did this call about a year ago, you talked about your injectable options being early stage, but when do you think we could be in a position to potentially get an update on the efforts Merck has with this injectable offering?
Eliav Barr
executiveJason, I'll take the second one first. We're still working on a variety of injectable options. You see that there's a lot out there. So we don't want to have just something that would be "me to" have to be differentiating, and we're working on that. In terms of the commercial elements, Brian, Greg?
Brian Foard
executiveYes,. I'll first start off by saying 1 of the things that we reiterated a bit earlier is that we feel like in the treatment marketplace, you're going to see the marketplace continue to move to the longer-acting therapies, the weekly therapies and we're really excited about that. Today, it's largely daily therapies if you think about where the market is today. So we see the marketplace going to continue to grow, and we think it's going to be growing primarily because of these longer-acting therapies. But Greg, maybe a bit more specifics
Gregg Szabo
executiveYes. I just want to address. I think what we had mentioned earlier around 1/3 was for 2 weekly options, not specifically for Isolens. So I do just want to correct that comment that was made and I think your other question was, do we see it as primarily coming from dailies versus injectables I think the value proposition is there for either. But as Brian has mentioned, the market still today and expected to be next year is still dominated by daily. So I think the pool in which you're operating is likely to be much higher on the daily side.
Peter Dannenbaum
executiveGreat. Thank you Jason.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from Michael Yee with UBS.
Michael Yee
analystGreat. Maybe 2 questions here. On the weekly treatment option with Gilead. Can you just talk a little bit about the economics there and how you think about a profit share there given that the partner already has wholly owned rights on the standard of care and complications of a partnership there. in that context and how that works? And then a second question on the monthly which sounds very exciting. Can you talk about the window and margin are there for retreatment and compliance there? I know you said fast onset of action. So perhaps there's definitely room just because of the fast onset, but how that works there with the monthly pill and the PK, if you missed the dose.
Eliav Barr
executiveLiz, could you comment on the forgiveness of the Q monthly? And then I'll ask Brian and Greg to talk about the economics.
Elizabeth Rhee
executiveYes. Thanks, Eliv. And actually, this was also addressed in the data we presented at Cray earlier this year that I had mentioned before about alamatrivir. So the 11-milligram dose allows for approximately a week of forgiveness in case the dose is missed.
Eliav Barr
executiveAnd Brian, Greg?
Brian Foard
executiveYes. So across the programs that we have with Gilead. Gilead and Mark will share global development and commercialization costs, 60-40, respectively. And then for the long-acting rules, as we said, Gilead will lead commercialization in the U.S., Merck will lead commercialization ex U.S. And Merck and Gilead will share global product revenues 50-50 up to around $2 billion or up to $2 billion, and then 65% Gilead, 35% Merck thereafter.
Gregg Szabo
executivePerhaps I can just add to that we've had a very productive partnership with Gilead, and I would start with what is the most important point. which is that working together, Merck and Gilead is allowing us to provide a new and important option for people living with HIV. In fact, this is the only way or the way that we could get to the market, the fastest was something that will be highly desired by the community. And so ultimately, we've worked well so far, certainly in developing the launch strategy. We're beginning to move into execution. We've established appropriate governance for all the key decisions. We believe it's working well, and I think both companies are firmly committed to establishing the oral weekly category and Islend, as we've noted, has the strong potential to be the first option.
Peter Dannenbaum
executiveGreat. Thanks, Michael. Amando, I know it's a busy morning for most. So we'll take time for one more question, please.
Operator
operatorP1 Our last question comes from Louise Chen with Scotiabank.
Louise Chen
analystI wanted to ask you, if you think what you have have what you need for a full product offering to HIV patients in both your commercial and pipeline products. Or are there other areas that you think will be important for you to be involved in?
Eliav Barr
executiveSo maybe I'll start with the future. Look, I think everyone is looking for new therapeutic classes, this is a disease that people have to grapple with today for up to 50 years. And so there are always going to be important enhancement that will need domain. There's a lot of desire for functional cure. We're working on a lot of those elements. And I think we've got a very unique set of discovery assets and also capabilities given our interest in immuno-oncology and immunology in general. -- to think about how we might address that. But these are our long-term plans. I'll turn it over to the -- to Brian and to Greg to talk about the commercial outlook.
Brian Foard
executiveI think it's a fantastic question. I think, and I'll pass it to Greg here in just a minute. I think the Key thing for us is due, as we've continued to do for many, many years now is to continue to collaborate with the community and make sure that we understand exactly what it is that they need. And so I think from that, we'll continue to work tirelessly, I think, to develop innovation, innovative options for the community. Greg, anything else?
Gregg Szabo
executiveI would maybe just say that we already have, I think, a very clearly defined and well sequenced portfolio strategy. Each of these assets is really designed to address distinct unmet needs. Each of these assets has meaningful scientific differentiation. And we're putting around that. We've undertaken extensive internal and external benchmarking to make sure that we have the resources, the capabilities and the investment levels that are aligned with the competitive dynamics of the field to make sure that we can be confident in our ability to allow us to compete and we're confident that we can invest at that level. So I think this begins with EdVinzo. We're already out there in the marketplace across medical affairs, market access, commercial function, actively engaging with stakeholders, leveraging our long-standing relationships and so far, the progress has been good and the reception has been very positive.
Peter Dannenbaum
executiveExcellent. Well, thank you, Louise, and thank you all for your interest and time this morning. Please reach out to the IR team for any immediate follow-ups, and we look forward to speaking with you tomorrow. Thank you.
Operator
operatorDisconnect at this time.
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