Metair Investments Limited (MTA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning. Welcome to the results presentation of Metair Investments Limited for the 6 months ended 30 June 2026. My name is Paul O'Flaherty. I'm the CEO of Metair, and I'm joined today by Alastair Walker, the CFO. I'll provide you with a bit of an operational update for the 6 months, hand over to Alastair for the financial review and then talk about some prospects for the next 6 months and hand over for Q&A. So just a reminder of who we are as Metair. We are in the auto component manufacturing as well as the aftermarket parts and retail. comprising of a number of subsidiaries in South Africa, supplying to major OEMs. You can see that on the left of the screen, Toyota, Ford primarily, but also Isuzu, Volkswagen and Mahindra. And then in the aftermarket division, we have a number of subsidiaries all working under a cluster, but separate from a management point of view to make sure we have channel protection. Our products go into vehicles that are exported around the world as well as for local production. And our aftermarket presence is primarily South Africa, but also with footprints elsewhere in Africa. If I talk about the results for the 6 months, our underlying earnings are stable and as a result of our operational reset, AutoZone is recovering and our cash conversion is a key term priority. So we spoke a lot about to the market over the last 2.5 years about a strategic reset. We went through the hard yards in 2024, then really looked at our operations in '25 and made sure we had stability, made sure we closed down operations that were not profitable, look at our profitable operations and make sure that they were running to the full of their potential. And that is substantially complete, but always subject to market conditions. And now we really are in the growth phase for Metair. Very good performance from our OEM manufacturing companies. We had a seamless model changeover with our customer without any issues, as I've been told, happen -- has happened in the past at Metair. So very, very good performance from our manufacturing units. Our OEM production levels are stabilizing, but they're at lower levels, and we'll go into the production for the first 6 months. Aftermarket, as we try and recover through AutoZone, challenging market conditions, but definitely signs of improvement, particularly towards the end of the first half. And overall, for the first 6 months, AutoZone is growing ahead of the market and is returning to profitability. In terms of our Rombat Competition Commission fine for Rombat, we have appealed that fine and Rombat have paid the first installment of the fine of EUR 4.2 million in August of '26. So a very solid half 1 performance from us in terms of lower production from our OEMs, but we still managed to keep our revenue stable in this challenging environment. Our EBIT increased by 1% with our EBIT margin in line with the prior period and sustainable margin improvements in all of our OEM businesses other than Hesto, which had the biggest effect of the lower volumes, but excellent performance in the rest of our OEM manufacturing. And our HEPS from continuing operations increased by 4% to ZAR 0.71 per share from ZAR 0.68 per share in the prior period. Our earnings per share from continuing operations improved from a loss of ZAR 0.90 per share in the prior period to a profit of ZAR 0.70 per share. Alastair will unpack that a little bit more, really focused on our debt, really focused on EBITDA and cash flow generation, and our net debt is down from ZAR 5 billion to ZAR 4.3 billion. And we successfully concluded a total refinance of our SA Obligor finance package and extended for another five years during this period. Our cash at the end of the period, up from ZAR 143 million to ZAR 620 million, and all of our debt covenants were complied with. On the right-hand side, just we talk about the aftermarket and we talk about the potential of the aftermarket. And recently, there was a survey done by the localization support fund. They did present it to the market. They were supported by EY. And you can see the size of the prize. The market size today in South Africa estimated at ZAR 100 billion and growing. And with an aging car parc, that's where we see the potential for growth in our aftermarket parts and retail. If I look at vehicle volumes, mainly let's look at sales. Let's start with sales. So sales of passenger and light commercial vehicles in the first 6 months of the year was very robust, up by 12% or 12.9% year-on-year. And in June, it's the strongest SA vehicle sales performance in 19 years. However, impacted significantly by Chinese and Indian imports and most of that growth is as a result of that. In addition, the SA vehicle exports declined 7.8% year-on-year, impacting local OEM manufacturers. And therefore, you can see the pressure on our local OEMs, and it's depicted in those production volumes, where period-on-period, half year -- last year to half year this year, basically the stable, 3,000-odd vehicles up. But for Metair, where we predominantly serve, our net vehicles are down if you look at Toyota and Ford. Despite that, we had strong resilient results. So just a little bit on the import surge from all the various studies done through NAAMSA and various other bodies. You can see from 2021 to 2025, the imports into the South African market going from 56% to 69% in 2025. And this isn't stopping and continues through the first 6 months of the year. So a lot of -- again, a lot of pressure on the OEMs in South Africa, which ultimately is a lot of pressure on Metair. And again, just talks to the resilience of this company and the good results that we've had in half 1. If I look at the Automotive Components division specifically, as I said, local production subdued due to the import penetration. And our localization targets as per the South African auto master plan are below the industry targets, putting a lot of pressure on the industry. Logistics, energy and infrastructure constraints still hamper exports. Yes, we've seen improvements in certain parts of the infrastructure, but there's still significant issues to be dealt with. In terms of Hesto specifically, which is our flagship harness or wiring operation, it's a remarkable turnaround when you think of it from '22, '23 and even into early parts of '24. And that turnaround continues and significant effort that we've put into Hesto, but very exposed to those OEM volumes and probably more exposed than others, particularly to the volumes from Ford that have gone down. And its revenue is down 17% year-on-year and EBIT down by 36% year-on-year, but still a very good performance. In the other OEMs, which are more agile, more flexible, even though they've had lower revenues of 3%, the EBIT growth is 30% year-on-year. And that shows the adaptability and the flexibility and the focus on cost cutting that we have introduced into the other operations. From a Metair aftermarket parts and retail, and it's integral to our diversification strategy. It's currently around 1/3 of our revenue, and we've always spoken about a medium-term strategy of getting the aftermarket parts and retail to 50% of our total revenue because of the pressure on the local OEMs. And AutoZone, as I reported at the year-end was trailing about 6 months behind the expectations, and that continues. So they haven't fallen further behind. But to the original business plan that we had when we purchased AutoZone at the beginning of '24, we're trailing 6 months behind that. Total new management team in place as we announced to the market and has started to return to profits from May of this year. So good signs, but a tough market. First Battery, we've spoken about that, challenging market conditions, particularly with imported cheap batteries. And there's a market preference for those more affordable batteries. But again, stable performance from First Battery, and we continue to monitor that operation. We did announce, as you've seen in our results post the period end, we did have a strike in our First Battery business as we downsize, as we make sure we have the right footprint, but we've managed to settle that strike and everything is back in operation. Our Africa growth strategy continues, particularly focusing on the aftermarket parts and retail. We've appointed a permanent team in the period. And that growing aging vehicle parc still represents a very good opportunity for Metair. If I look specifically at our operational performance from a segmental point of view and the Hesto numbers, I'm not going to get into the accounting confusion for the first 3 months of the prior period. But if you look at Hesto, total revenue of ZAR 2.6 billion, down 17% from half 1 '25, and that's the lower volumes. You've seen in one of those previous slides, very exposed to Toyota and Ford. And with the net of those 2, the volume is down. EBIT at ZAR 136 million, again, down to 36%. But if you look at the EBIT margin at 5.3% versus the half 1 of 6.9%. That's the challenge we have for the next period, and that's where we are really focusing on to get those EBIT margins back where we needed to be, and it's about footprint. This is about footprint. As those volumes come down, remember, this is the most people that are employed in Metair, around 7,000 people and how do you reduce that footprint for the lower volumes. So the reaction to do that is a little bit slower, but we're confident that we can get those EBIT margins back up to where they have been previously and certainly in the second part of the year. If you look at the rest of the OEMs, Smiths, Lumotech, Automould, Supreme and Unitrade, again, revenue down because of the net down in the volumes to ZAR 3.5 billion from the previous year of ZAR 3.6 billion, but a great performance in our EBIT, up 30% to ZAR 297 million from ZAR 228 million at a margin of 8.5% and the half year last year at 6.4%. We believe those are sustainable, significant work done in those factories to get the footprint right and significant work in how they flex and are agile to market conditions. So great performance from that collective. In the Aftermarket Parts and Retail, if we talk to Africa aftermarket parts and retail, which would be First Battery, AutoZone, ATE and QSV and MOVE. Revenue up 6% overall to ZAR 1.9 billion from ZAR 1.8 billion, but the EBIT remained unchanged. So there was a loss in AutoZone, which we've disclosed, but the last 2 months returning to profitability. And the EBIT margin at 2.9% period-on-period versus 3.1% last year. Rombat, which we now completely separately report, and Alastair will go through that in the segmental. Revenue down by 21% to ZAR 955 million. Tough conditions in the European market. They've been more affected by the Middle Eastern issues than possibly we have done here. So revenue down and EBIT slightly down, but their margins, significant improvement in their margins to 5.4%. So very strong performance by Rombat in very trying conditions as they go forward. I'll now hand over to Alastair.

Thanks, Paul. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Gives me great pleasure to present the results for the first half of FY '26. As Paul mentioned, overall, a pleasing performance in a challenging period, which was evidenced by lower volumes in one key customer and the model changeover in another key customer, but which was seamlessly executed on. So despite these challenges, the group delivered a solid performance due to the rightsizing and restructuring initiatives, which commenced in 2024 to ensure that the business remains agile and adaptable to the market conditions and customer shifts. When reviewing these results, it is worth noting the change in accounting treatments and the consolidation of Hesto Harnesses with effect from the 1st of April 2025, which impacts the comparable period and should be borne in mind when reviewing the results. The group delivered a slight increase in revenue of 1% to ZAR 8.5 billion for the 6 months. EBITDA was up 8% to ZAR 760 million, and EBIT was up 1% to ZAR 444 million versus ZAR 439 million in the prior period. Group net debt was ZAR 4.3 billion at period end versus ZAR 5 billion for the comparable period. Net debt comprises ZAR 4.9 billion of gross debt less net cash of ZAR 620 million at the period end. The group's cash flow is fairly cyclical with significant outflows in the first half and liberation of cash in the second half due to the working capital cycle, mainly in the OEM businesses. We are pleased with the cash balance at the half as this compares to ZAR 143 million at June 2025, which represents a significant improvement versus the comparable period. Headline earnings per share from continuing operations rose to ZAR 0.71 per share, which compares to ZAR 0.68 per share in the prior period, which again demonstrates the operational stability in the business being a key feature as the benefits of the rightsizing and restructuring, which commenced in 2024, continue to buffer the volume volatility. ROIC, which is our key performance metric, increased to 11.2% from 11.1% at the end of FY '25, which again reflects the stable operational performance in the period. Our reporting segments are the OEM segment, which supplies components directly to the original equipment manufacturers and the aftermarket parts and retail or AFM segment, which primarily serves the independent aftermarket and retail distribution channels. This period, we've also elected to split out Rombat within aftermarket to show its results separately from the rest of AFM Africa. Rombat is a separate debt obligor and is managed independently from the rest of the business. The OEM segment highlights. OEM production volumes were stable in the period, up 1% versus the comparable period. And despite the stable volume growth, the EBIT increased 12%, resulting from the benefits of those restructuring initiatives, which we've spoken about. Hesto, as Paul mentioned, was adversely impacted by the lower volumes at one of the key customers, and Hesto's revenue and EBIT is down 17% and 36%, respectively, versus the prior period. The remaining OEM businesses grew EBIT by 30% period-on-period and improving that EBIT margin from 6.4% to 8.5% due to the effect of those operational improvement initiatives. On the AFM side, we split it into AFM Africa and Rombat, as I mentioned, AFM Africa reflected revenue up by 6%, mainly AutoZone, but flat EBIT period-on-period. As Paul mentioned, AutoZone incurred losses, but which were reduced modestly from ZAR 24 million in the prior period to ZAR 21 million in this half. AutoZone is trailing about 6 months behind its original recovery plan. Within AFM Africa, First battery delivered a solid performance with EBIT increasing about 4% to ZAR 82 million with battery volumes increasing about 5,000 units period-on-period, which is a good performance in a very challenged market. Rombat had a solid first half despite the lower revenue due to input cost containment. Turning to the cash flow bridge for the half. Please note again, like we did in the segmental report, we've separated Rombat out from all figures and shown it separately. So the group ex Rombat generated ZAR 697 million from cash from operations and invested ZAR 493 million into working capital for the period. As I've mentioned, the group is quite cyclical in terms of its working capital cycle with an investment in working capital in the first half of each fiscal as the factory start up at the beginning of the year, but a liberation of working capital, which turns to cash in the second half as the factories close in early December. This is evidenced by the group's cash balance of ZAR 1.2 billion at the end of 2025 compared to ZAR 620 million at the end of June 2026. We remain very focused on the inventory levels. And in the first half, and this focus is evidenced by a moderate investment of ZAR 39 million into inventory in the first half despite the volatility from the U.S.-Iran conflict, which is impacting global supply chains. The investment into receivables is higher due to higher volumes in June. April and May were slower months with a model changeover, but June was a very strong month, reflecting higher sales volumes and higher receivables as a result. Trade and other payables increased by ZAR 339 million, partially offsetting the receivables build as production volumes ramped up in June. During the period, the group paid interest of ZAR 307 million and tax of ZAR 50 million. Investing activities comprises CapEx of ZAR 232 million, offset by interest received of ZAR 25 million. The CapEx for FY '25 and FY '26 remains elevated due to the required investment to prepare for the model changeover that happened in the first half of the year. Finally, the group had a net outflow of ZAR 167 million from the financing activities, which reflects debt repayments and lease payments of ZAR 102 million for the period. Rombat cash flow, which is separately shown on the right-hand side, reflects cash generated from operations of ZAR 68 million, less investments into working capital of ZAR 85 million and CapEx of ZAR 12 million with outflows for tax and debt-related repayments of ZAR 40 million in aggregate. Turning to the debt structure slides. As we've mentioned before, the group is managed in 3 separate ring-fenced debt obligors, SA Obligor, which comprises all the South African assets, except Hesto. Hesto as a separate obligor and Rombat. Just to note, there's no link between the South African obligor groups and Rombat. During the period under review, the group successfully executed a refinance of the group's SA Obligor borrowings of ZAR 3.3 billion and consolidated the debt with one lender being Standard Bank. The objective of the SA Obligor refinance was to align the term of the debt with the forecast earnings and cash flow generation and to remove the ZAR 1.6 billion Facility C repayment previously due in June 2027. Important to note, the EBITDA trigger per the previous debt construct, which required the group to meet cumulative EBITDA targets, failing which an asset sale or write-off was required has also been removed as part of this refinance. The new debt terms include a ratchet down of the interest rate as the SA Obligor delevers, so we remain principally focused on deleveraging to reduce the interest payments through a reduced debt quantum and also lower rates as the leverage ratio improves. Separately, we are renegotiating the Hesto debt package to consolidate the debt with Standard Bank. We are in the final stages of the Hesto refinance and expect completion shortly. As Paul has mentioned, all covenants and debt requirements were met in the period. This slide reflects the group's total repayment obligations for the next 5 years. The top table reflects SA Obligor and indicates the refinancing has successfully pushed out the majority of the maturities to FY '31. The facilities contain leverage-based pricing ratchets, as I've mentioned on the previous slide, meaning the interest costs reduced as our debt levels decrease. This creates a double benefit from a debt reduction through both lower debt balances and lower margins, which is why EBITDA, free cash generation -- free cash flow generation and debt reduction remain our #1 priority. In addition, we have negotiated with Standard Bank to classify the loans as sustainability-linked loans, which subject to meeting certain sustainability KPIs, we will see further margin benefit. This slide sets out our capital allocation and commitments for the second half of the year. The top left part of the slide indicates the CapEx spent in the first half, which amounted to ZAR 244 million, split between maintenance of ZAR 60 million and expansion in project-related CapEx of ZAR 172 million plus Rombat CapEx of ZAR 12 million. As we have highlighted before, the CapEx for FY '26 will be higher than normal at around ZAR 733 million for the year, covering maintenance and project CapEx. Project CapEx relates mainly to the investment for the new model changeover. We do expect total CapEx to moderate to between ZAR 400 million and ZAR 450 million per annum from FY '27 onwards. On the right-hand part of the slide, we reflect the ROIC, which is our key performance metric. ROIC is 11.2% at June 2026, slightly up from December 2025 due to the operational and financial stability in the period. Historically, ROIC has tracked volumes as evidenced by the lower ROIC in FY '24 following the Toyota engine certification issues in Europe, but the recovery came through in the ROIC in FY '25. We do expect the ROIC volatility to be less going forward as we diversify our revenues and our earnings through the increased exposure to the aftermarket segment. We remain intensely focused on disciplined capital allocation for investments in CapEx as well as working capital. ROIC is our key metric for all OpEx, working capital and CapEx deployment. We also analyze return on assets, IRR and payback to ensure that investments meet the appropriate return requirements. Thank you.

Thanks, Alastair. So what do we expect over the next 6 months as Metair? Obviously, as reported previously, as you would read in the media and is highlighted on a regular basis, the automotive sector is at a critical crossroads and strategic government decisions are pivotal working with the industry. Government is relooking at the APDP2 and the Automotive Masterplan itself. And close collaboration is needed by all the industry stakeholders to make sure that we can create the secure platform for the automotive industry going forward. Specifically in the OEM markets, you saw the higher volumes from Toyota, and they're expecting slightly higher increases for the second half. There's been very strong demand for the new Toyota Hilux model. Ford volumes are lower as we had indicated at the full year, but we expect them to be stable going forward for the next 6 months. And the margins we've reported, we believe, are very sustainable in the OEMs in the manufacturing companies for the next 6 months. AutoZone remains an absolute near-term priority. There's definitely signs of improvement in the general aftermarket. And if we look at trading sales per day, AutoZone is growing ahead of the market, and we continue to focus on that. Yes, 6 months behind, new management team in place, and we're confident for the next 6 months that we can show the turnaround at AutoZone. And our diversification strategy continues to grow that aftermarket part components. There's an aging vehicle parc in South Africa, but also in the rest of Africa and reduce our dependence on new vehicle production. A lot of stress in that sector. It doesn't mean we're walking away from that sector. It remains critical to Metair, but we have to diversify. And as I said, African aftermarket provides growth opportunities for us beyond South Africa. New team in place, strategy signed off and opportunities identified. Thank you very much. I'll now hand over for the Q&A.

Thank you very much, Paul. We will go to the questions on the webcast. And the first question is from [ Esayon ] at Profitworks. The question is for Alastair. Despite strong cash generation before working capital, receivables absorbed ZAR 779 million in H1. How much of this is timing related and expected to unwind in H2? And what level of free cash flow and net debt reduction should we expect by year-end?

Sorry, what was the last part, Rig?

What level of free cash flow and net debt reduction should we expect by year-end?

Okay. Perhaps if I can just answer the second part. So as reflected in last year, if you look at FY '25, there was a substantial investment in working capital in the first half of ZAR 843 million. And our cash balance at the end of June 2025 was ZAR 143 million. The cash balance at the end of the year was ZAR 1.2 billion. So there's a substantial increase in the cash in the second half. That is due to the natural working capital cycle. To answer the first part of the question, the significant investment in receivables in the first half at the end of the period. Part of that is -- a large part of that is timing related because the volumes in June were high after slower volumes in April and May. So due to the model changeover, there was a bit of a slowdown in volumes, but there was a significant volume pickup in June, and that's really resulted in a large part of that trade receivables. Just to note that the trade receivables includes contract assets, so the IFRS 15 adjustment comes through there as well. But we do expect the working capital as a whole to moderate in the second half and the categorization between it will largely be timing related between receivables between payables and inventory. I think what's notable is our focus on inventory, which you can also see through the moderate investment in inventory. So we track inventory quite cautiously, but we expect the liberation from the working capital in the second half of the year.

The second question is also from [ Esayon ] at Profitworks. This question is for Paul. With the falling share of locally produced vehicles, what opportunities are Metair pursuing to become a localization partner to the new OEM entrants? And when can these customers become material contributors to revenue?

Yes. So there's substantial talk in the market and activity in the market for new entrants. We've seen Mahindra a number of years back enter the market, and we already service Mahindra through Supreme Springs. But there's additional activity going on with all of our other manufacturers to see if we could supply to Mahindra and its requirements. We did a couple of years back or 18 months back, have a lot of engagements with Stellantis, but those have kind of petered a little bit, and we're not seeing a lot of movement. The most active at the moment in looking at the market and dealing with our manufacturing and looking for RFQs is Chery, and we continue to engage with them, trying to understand what their levels of investments. Are they going CKD, SKD, where they're going. So we're very active. I mean our OEM manufacturers know that they've got spare capacity, and they continue to engage with any new entrants in our market. key decisions required from government, we believe, going forward, like the rest of the industry and how companies are incentivized to set up for full CKD in South Africa because that improves the localization opportunity.

A question from Mihai at SE Architectura. When will Metair engage in lithium-ion batteries and/or when will Metair produce an EV?

So lithium ion is not in the strategy for Metair at this stage. It was a previous strategy that unfolded through 2018, 2019 with Mutlu and Rombat and the others. So it's not part of the strategy at the moment. Metair doesn't produce EVs. We produce the parts for EVs. And so we're totally dependent on our OEM manufacturing companies to do that transition. And they prefer to use it as NEVs and not just EVs specifically. And we've seen movements like Ford producing the PHEV for the Ranger. So we supply the parts to that. And as and when the OEMs in the country evolve, Metair is ready and able to supply the parts that are required for NEV vehicles.

Question from Rowan Goeller at Chronux Research. What are your expectations for Toyota volumes? And could they make up for the Ford decline?

So as we indicated, I mean, the Hilux has been a very successful launch. You've seen the volumes of Toyota in the first 6 months. We think that they can at least match that in the second 6 months, maybe a little bit more. And as I said, the Ford volume decrease that you've seen, we expect that now to stabilize. So year-on-year, there will be that decrease overall that we spoke about at the year-end.

Another question from Rowan Goeller. What margin expectations do you now have for AutoZone now that you have operated for a while?

I think if we look at the competitors of AutoZone, if we look at the intent and the reason for buying AutoZone, ultimately, when we complete this turnover, when we get AutoZone back to the revenues that we spoke about, we expect 5.5% PBIT margins from AutoZone, and that's what the competitors are doing. So that's definitely something in the medium term that we need to push AutoZone for.

A question from Irma Venter at Engineering News. Do you get the sense that the OEMs have a workable plan to counter the drop in production volumes? Will a cut in ad valorem tax aid locally motor vehicle sales?

Yes, they certainly have a plan. I mean a lot of the OEMs are very outspoken in the market, rightfully so, giving indications of what's required. I don't believe they just sit back and accept the status quo. Obviously, they're very dependent. They have motherships overseas that own them with many production facilities around the world. The point for this industry is to remain really relevant in global terms. The 1% of total global production remains a goal for South Africa, and we all need to work together to be cost competitive to unlock all of the infrastructure issues that maybe hamper what we try and do. And so we're in this together with the OEMs. And we're very confident that certainly over the medium term, we can get back to the position where South Africa intended.

The next question from Na'ilah Ebrahim at News24. What is the outlook for Ford in terms of production going forward? And how will Hesto respond to this?