Microba Life Sciences Limited (MAP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

If you have any questions, just please feel free to type them into the chat at any time. And as always, I'll aim to address as many as I can during the Q&A at the end of the presentation. But then any that I can't get to during the session, I'll ensure that we answer them on the Investor Hub platform after. So after 8 years of building at the forefront of this field, we have the market-leading products and assets in this category. We have growing AI durable moats around the business. We have expanding operating leverage and margins. We've delivered 11 quarters of consecutive growth for our core testing products. And over the last 18 months, we've completed critical investments in product, in infrastructure and more recently in AI efficiency. And aligned to all of this, we've just completed a capital raise to deliver the company to full cash flow breakeven. I'll just move past the disclaimers. There are 4 key messages that I want you to take away from this call. The first is streamlined operations and costs. So we're in a strong position and are streamlining the business to a structurally lower cost base, leveraging recent investments that we've made across product, infrastructure and our advancements in leveraging AI efficiency. Second, we will continue to grow sales and contribution margin. So we have real sales momentum, and that is set to continue. Third, our margins to increase. So we have increasing operating leverage and economies of scale in this business, which are set to continue to open up margins. And those factors combined will deliver us to a major milestone we've been getting into position for, which is delivering the whole company to cash flow breakeven. With the capital raise led by our 3 substantial shareholders who have invested strongly above their pro rata rate and led by Sonic Healthcare. So here's our summary of the 6 key reasons. It's a compelling time to become or become a larger Microba shareholder as we deliver this major milestone and value inflection point. So first and most important is the milestone itself. We're delivering cash flow breakeven. So this raise plus streamlined, AI efficient operations takes the whole company to cash flow breakeven delivered on a run rate basis in 2027. Second, we have a large addressable market with [indiscernible] demand. So $25 billion initial market, 82 million patients a year with gastrointestinal disease, and clinicians and patients are actively seeking a clinical grade solution, and we have that solution. Third, accelerating sales and adoption, as I said before, 11 consecutive quarters of core test growth over 100% year-on-year growth in core test sales and revenue. Fourth, we have expanding operating leverage. So based on the investments we've made, we are set for a breakout year for operating leverage, delivering a material increase in revenue per employee aligned to recently completed product and infrastructure investments and company-wide AI efficiencies. And finally, our Therapeutics division is primed to partner. So multiple recent positive clinical trial readouts have validated the Microbiome Therapeutic modality and seen over $100 million of investment flow into the sector just since February. So this is the validation that pharma have been waiting for and we are in a position with our assets, and we are active in a partnering process with a Boston-based specialty advisory firm. And at the center of this, the business is continuing to deliver strong growth for its core diagnostics. To deliver on cash flow breakeven, the core growth is not a new plan. The momentum is already enforced here. As I said, 11 consecutive quarters of sales growth. That's ninefold cumulative growth since 2023, 106% growth in core testing sales in the last 12 months as compared to the prior 12 months. So that growth is consistent and that growth is compounding. The key message here is that, that growth is set to continue. We have growth momentum across our core markets in Australia and the United Kingdom. In Australia, we've moved beyond innovators and now into the Early Adopters with these enterprise style clinic contract with reoccurring volume potential. In the United Kingdom, we're capturing that innovator segment, and we are outperforming Australia at the equivalent time post launch of those products. On top of this and further supporting the continued growth trajectory, we are set to launch a major new category-defining product next quarter, and I'm going to talk about that more on the next slide. And our progress here with these enterprise style contracts with health care clinics underwrites a lot of this next period of growth. So we have over 130 key account targets in the Australian pipeline that represent ordering potential of over 60,000 tests a year. The sales team have been systematically working through them. And over the last 7 months, we've already signed 34 of them, representing just in those accounts over 22,000 tests a year of annual volume potential. And the majority of that volume is yet to flow through. So the key message is we have growth in the numbers today, and we have a signed pipeline that converts to growth tomorrow. And land on top is this next growth catalyst, a category defining new product launching next quarter. So this is a well first complete microbiome and gastrointestinal test. And I would say that this is the culmination of the last 8 years of work with Microba building at the forefront of this major new diagnostic category. This product is designed to address our core target patient population which is the 40% of people living with a gastrointestinal disorder. And with this new test, we have achieved what no one else globally has been able to achieve which is to make this complex specialty testing, something that's able to be rapidly understood by any health care professional in 2 minutes before consultation with their patient. So this is a premium new product in the category, and we expect to command premium pricing alongside that. This opens up the next part of the adoption curve as we move up from innovator and early adopter clinicians and into the majority. So this product opens up the mainstream medical professional market and is at the center of why Sonic invested and continues to invest in Microba, including in this round. So how does all of this deliver to cash flow breakeven? So the recent build period has required a high monthly cash burn, which in recent months has added about $1.3 million per month. So based on the infrastructure we now have from that investment, to deliver -- to run rate breakeven in 2027, the bridge is relatively simple around $700,000 rapidly comes from streamlined operations with cost reductions and multiple leverage AI efficiencies through the business. And around $600,000 a month comes from revenue growth on top of a fixed cost base. And combined, they quickly close that gap. In a little more detail, there's 4 levers over on the left, which do the work. So sales and marketing efficiency, continuing to lower customer acquisition costs from our AI supported targeting, a unified global brand that we've implemented, automated life cycle marketing and self-service sign-up infrastructure. The second there is core cost and operational efficiency. So AI automation, which we've been updating on over several quarters across customer support, HR, legal, finance, all structurally lowering our cost of service we continue to scale and engineering science and product efficiency. So this major new product build is about to complete. And on top of that, AI-supported development efficiency is further reducing our maintenance and release costs. And then the final ingredient there is sales growth with margin expansion. So continuing our growth momentum, rising volume on a fixed cost base with real pricing power and scaling economics. So the core product and infrastructure build is done. Now we can harvest the fruits of those investments, streamline and rocket to cash flow breakeven for the whole company. So here is what that operating leverage looks like in practice. Today, we sit at around $135,000 in revenue per employee, and our 2027 target is over [ 2.5x ] so that would rapidly place us in a class of strong, differentiated molecular diagnostics and devices company. And then our next target aims to ratchet that up and push us up into the top tier. Three things that get us there: strong organic growth, leveraging our years of market development and the latent potential in our pipeline, streamline operations leveraging our recent infrastructure investments across the business. And of course, our market-leading products with defensible technology, our clinical accreditations and proprietary data modes. And the market in front of us is big. The $25 billion initial market, 82 million, sorry, tests per year across 7 major markets in just one indication, which is gastrointestinal disorders. So our near-term focus is only a tiny fraction of that, a little dot down the bottom. As I've consistently said, the market is big, and we only need to capture a small slice to build up -- sorry, to build a business at scale. So we're going to take it slice by size, [indiscernible] aligned to the adoption curve. Underneath all of this sits 5 pillars: Latent demand for our products, our efficient growth engines, essential clinical utility for our products, reoccurring sticky revenue and powerful technology modes. I'm going to leave the detail to be read later, but I think it's really worth pausing for a moment on that last one in particular. So our moat is physical and proprietary. So from our measurement methods to our bioinformatics IP to our clinical accreditations and our growing clinical grade data set. These are things that are importantly durable in a world of AI fear and disruption. So I just wanted to put a fine point on that. And on top of all of this, there is a major upside as a Microba shareholder today, and that is Microba's [ crinkle ] stage therapeutic platform and pipeline, which is prime to partner based on this recent sector activity. Important to call out upfront here, we are not funding more R&D. We are in an active partnering process with a capital-light path to potential outsized returns from here. So after many years of work in discovery, development and significant investment, I would say that it is game time for Microba Therapeutics. This is what we have been waiting for. Between November last year, in February this year, the sector delivered a run of positive clinical trial readouts across graft versus host disease, allergic disease, irritable bowel syndrome, inflammatory bowel disease. The modality has now been validated. It is clear that live microbiome therapy work in real patients in multiple chronic diseases. And this is the exact data that pharma partners have been waiting for. And as a first indicator the capital is flowing. So over the last 4 months, we've seen over $100 million of fresh investment flow into the sector, and so that validates the appetite that's building for these assets. And our portfolio is ready and in position for this activity. So MAP-315 is a derisked Phase II ready asset targeting ulcerative colitis, which is a $10 billion-plus market with a large underserved patient population. We have a fast follow immuno-oncology program ready to rapidly move into a Phase Ib and a broader pipeline in autoimmune disease and immuno-oncology. And that's all underpinned by our driven therapeutics platform, leveraging Microba proprietary clinical data bank. So again, we are not funding more R&D from here. We are in an active partnering process with a Boston-based specialty adviser, and this provides a capital-light path to potential outsized returns from here. And fundamentally, we strongly believe that these assets will help millions of people. So the world needs these therapies in the hands of patients across a range of different chronic diseases. And to deliver the company to cash flow breakeven we completed a capital raise on Friday, and we'll now open up a share purchase plan for all Microba shareholders. So the placement was completed and announced on Friday for $5 million. To enable access to the opportunity, we have a $1 million share purchase plan for all Microba's shareholders. What that means is that all shareholders can invest on the same terms as the institutional investors that invested into the placement, which is a $0.05 per share with a one-for-one free attaching option for every share that's exercisable at $0.0625 with a 3-year expiry on those options. And so that's a valuable opportunity for shareholders to bolster their position ahead of us delivering the set of milestones over the coming period from launching the new category-defining product, to delivering cash flow breakeven and potential therapeutic transactions with our active partnering process. So to lay that out with less words on the page. Under the share purchase plan, eligible shareholders can apply for new Microba shares at $0.05 per share. So it's the same price the institutional investors paid in the $5 million placement. And like the placement, every new share comes with 1 free attaching option. So for each share you subscribe for, you also receive 1 option on a one-for-one basis. Those options are unlisted and they have an exercise price of $0.0625 and they can be exercised at any time up to 3 years from the date that they were issued. So in other words, they give you the right but not the obligation to acquire further shares at that fixed price during that 3-year period of value creation. There's no brokerage fees on the SPP and you can apply for any amount up to a maximum of $30,000. So on the right-hand side, you can see what that looks like in practice. How do you take part? First is eligibility. So the SPP is open to shareholders who were on the microbe shareholder register in Australia and New Zealand on the record date, which was Thursday, the 11th of June. In terms of how much, as I mentioned before, up to $30,000 per shareholder at $0.05 per share with no brokerage fees. Applying is quite straightforward. So the SPP offer booklet and prospectus will be sent to all eligible shareholders and they will also be available on our website and the ASX platform. So keep an eye out for those. You can pay via [ V-pay ] using the reference in your personalized offer documents that will come out or you can apply online. The key thing here is to make sure that your application and payment are received before the offer closes. So that brings me to the dates on the right-hand side of the slide here. The offer opens this Friday on the 19th of June, and it will then close on Wednesday, the 22nd of July. So if you have any questions, please just speak with your financial adviser about all of that. And that takes me to questions.

So I'm going to take -- I've seen a bunch of questions come through here and a bunch of them are around the same thing, which is last quarterly, we had a statement on the front page, which was there was a mention of a major corporate transaction. And then there were some details at the end of the investor materials released on Friday. So what happened there? What was that about? First, we were approached by a U.K.-based private equity fund. And after gaining alignment, we agreed terms on an in-principle basis for the fund to acquire our diagnostics and supplements business. So just one part of the company. But importantly, that was at a price that was well in excess of our entire $44 million market cap at the time. When the final deal structure was no longer in the best interest of shareholders, we chose not to proceed. To be really clear here the price did not change. It was the structure, which changed at the last minute as we were completing that potential transaction. And Microba, what this signals for me is that Microba is clearly an attractive asset in a very hot area. So this is a real anchor for the valuation of the company. And our view is that Microba's valuation has considerable upside on achieving cash flow breakeven and will be attractive to many more potential acquirers through times, but importantly, the terms need to be compelling for shareholders. Second question here, and I'm just going to go for the next one that I see. Given there are cost reductions and growth required, how can we get comfort that the growth momentum will not be impacted by the cost reductions? Good question. So I'll work through how we're looking at those introductions. So starting with sales and marketing, so that growth engine. There will be no change to the sales team efficiency and capacity. So the cost efficiencies come from in that part of the business, from the recent work that we've completed in unifying our global brands and marketing organization, our automated life cycle marketing work self-serve sign-up infrastructure and a range of AI efficiencies being leveraged through marketing, which all reduced the cost of acquisition and the cost needed to support sales through marketing. But the sales team and the feet on the street and our core engine there don't change. Product engineering, bioinformatics and science is our next category. So the major new product -- the major new category-defining product, I should say. And the build associated with that is about to complete and launch. So the elevated product build phase costs and associated costs have the largest impact to the numbers. So we retain a core platform team and leverage increasing AI-supported efficiencies through those functions, and that lowers the -- both the platform maintenance cost and the cost per release. And then in operations and corporate, we're leveraging as we put out in several quarterlies AI automation across customer support. So if you call Microba now, you'll get an AI support agent as a first triage option through finance, legal, HR which all structurally lowers the cost to serve for these central functions. But in summary, the core growth engine is not being impacted. The cost savings come from other functions after completing major product and infrastructure build for the business. The next one here. You said the existing signed care accounts underwrites or sold for a lot of the growth requirement to deliver on the breakeven milestone. So how long does it take to mature those accounts? So over the past 3 quarters, we've signed those 34 accounts and as I said, that represents now an ordering potential of over 22,000 tests. About 2/3 of those accounts have commenced ordering and about 1/3 the newly signed accounts are now in the process of training and onboarding, and we expect these to commence ordering in the coming weeks. But the data that we've seen so far from our signed and onboarded accounts is that they reach about 40% of their ordering potential within roughly 4 months of going live. And so you've got to remember, these are on their maturing journey. So that's the data we have so far. So the accounts that are at that stage in our pipeline are still only partway through growing towards their full ordering potential. And so all of that upside is yet to be realized. So the answer to your question is if you extrapolate that data you could estimate that to get to full maturity over a period takes about 10 months, and I expect that we'll get more efficient with that through time. And it's also dependent on each account. And just over the last 5 weeks, we've signed 7 new accounts. And we expect to continue signing new accounts continuously as we work through our 130 carefully selected targets. So again, with a 23,000 annualized core test run rate as of last quarter and assigned key account base representing an ordering potential of over 22,000 tests signing new accounts on top every quarter, the growth to breakeven, we do see is largely underwritten by maturing a lot of these key accounts that we've already signed. There's a few more questions in here, but in the interest of time, I'll close out on any of those remaining questions, I will make sure that I answer on Investor Hub after this. Apologies the lights have gone off again. So I'm going to wrap up here and close by saying, as I always do, I'm incredibly excited about the opportunity impacting growth ahead for Microba. We are at a real inflection point of operational focus, advancement up the customer adoption curve into mainstream medical professionals, product leadership in this major new diagnostic category AI efficiency and the validation of Microbiome Therapeutics setting up for transaction and valuation of those core assets. We have a world-class team, best-in-class technology category-leading products. For patients, we see it every day, every week. We are already changing lines, and there are a lot of people that need our help. So really, it is an incredible time to be a Microba shareholder. And I will thank you all for taking the time and tuning in for the update. And I'll thank -- say, thank you to all of our shareholders for your ongoing support. Thank you, everyone.