Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

February 12, 2020

NASDAQ US Information Technology Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment conference_presentation 36 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Mark Delaney

analyst
#1

Okay. Thank you, everybody, for being here. My name is Mark Delaney, and I cover Microchip for Goldman Sachs. I'm very pleased today to welcome Microchip's Chairman and CEO, Steve Sanghi; and CFO, Eric Bjornholt. Thank you both for being here.

Steve Sanghi

executive
#2

Thank you, Mark.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#3

As many of you know, Microchip is a leading semiconductor supplier with more than $5 billion of annual revenue. Microchip recently reported that the company has seen a positive inflection in bookings and backlog. Can you elaborate a bit on what the company has seen on this front and what it means for Microchip's business?

Steve Sanghi

executive
#4

Is this because of the change of the room?

Mark Delaney

analyst
#5

Yes, I think so. Let's just give it just 30 seconds to let everybody get settled here.

Steve Sanghi

executive
#6

I see they're coming from the other room.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#7

Yes. The last minute change in room location. Apologies for the background noise.

Steve Sanghi

executive
#8

Okay.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#9

Right. We only have 35 minutes, unfortunately. So yes, so maybe we can start while people get settled. But again, the company reported a nice increase in bookings and backlog on your most recent earnings report. Just talk a little bit about what the company is seeing from a cyclical perspective.

Steve Sanghi

executive
#10

So thank you, Mark. Before I make any comments, I wish to remind you that during this discussion, I may make some projections, and these are forward-looking statements regarding the future financial performance of Microchip and usually involve predictions, and the actual results may vary materially. So I refer you to Microchip's filings with the SEC for some important risk factors. Now we announced earnings just last week. So there's not a whole lot of new news. But basically, what we saw was a strengthening of the business environment that started last quarter. And as we ended the last quarter, December quarter book-to-bill ratio was well above 1, with the September quarter being less than 1 and prior several quarters were less than 1. We saw the starting backlog for the March quarter to be up in double digits over the backlog, at a similar point in time, we saw for the December quarter. So when we announced the earnings last week, most of those trends were still in place, and it was very early part of coronavirus, and all those effects were not known. We had just gone into Chinese New Year. So now as I look at today and there are -- do you mind if we talk about coronavirus a little bit?

Mark Delaney

analyst
#11

Yes, we'd love to hear it.

Steve Sanghi

executive
#12

So there are 3 sides of coronavirus. So one is the human toll, which is extremely bad, with people who are sick and the people who have died. But the other two, really, one on the supply chain and one on the effect on the demand. So when you look at the effect on supply chain, Microchip has a very small supply chain out of China. It's in single digits for Microchip. So not a whole lot of effect. But that even single-digit supply chain is coming out of 18 different factories throughout China. 11 of those are IC Builder-like assembly plants and all that, some are system plants and some are building modules and boards and some others are discrete products. These are all subcontractors. We don't have any manufacturing footprint of our own in China. So a small single-digit kind of assembly test and system manufacturing coming out of China is coming out of 18 plants. I get a daily report because of the coronavirus from our Director of Ops on what's happening in various plants. So as of this morning, 17 plants were back to work. And one last one was looking for government approval to come back to work, which could happen in a day or 2. Now the 17 plants that are back to work, some of them are back to work 100%, but many others are back to work with anywhere from 35% of their people to 100% of their people, but somebody who is 80% today was just 50% a day ago and 35% the day before. So it's rapidly, people are returning to work, and they're going to back -- back to work 100%. It's my expectation that, certainly, by the end of this week or the start of next week, all the subcontractor plants would be fully back to work. So now what you have to account for is a week extension of the Chinese New Year plus a week of less than 100% loading, which would mean about 10 days or so. And most of the plants, so far, the information we're getting is they'll make it up in the quarter, so there will not be any supply loss. They'll work weekends. They'll work Sundays and whatever, and it will be made up. So from the supply side standpoint, we don't really feel there'd be any impact of anything pushed out. Now when you switch to the demand side of it, there, we have 80,000 customers and products coming out of -- demand is coming out of hundreds of factories, and we're not able to track all that because of 80,000 very long-tail customers and all that. But if we were to guess what's happening, in them coming to work, it ought to be fairly similar to the subcontractors coming to work because factories are all in the same region. Many of them are right next to each other. So my guess would be, based on the data I know on the subcontractor side, the customer side of it will all be -- most of it back to work already or will be back to work in a few days, really, by the end of this week or early next week. And they will see then a similar phenomena where Chinese New Year was extended by a week so they lost a week of production and then being underloaded for a week, they lose another 0.5 week, so about 10 days or so. And will they make up 10 days of that demand a quarter? That has got to be analyzed. Subcontractors are saying they would not have any impact, and it's possible that customers would say the same. I take one example of Huawei who came to work a week earlier than everybody else. They got a special permission from the government to come back to work on February 3. As they came back to work, they didn't push out any orders. They didn't cancel any orders. In fact, we got a large number of new orders and expedite requests of certain products they needed in the quarter rather than the next quarter. So I think my best guess, as I see today, I don't think there's going to be a lot of impact. But you can't say anything with certainty right now until probably another couple of weeks.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#13

Thank you very much for that update. One of the other geopolitical topics that's impacted business conditions has been the trade war. And Steve, you've spoken at length about how uncertainty that was created by tariffs made it very difficult to run a business. Trade war isn't completely done. There are still tariffs in place, but they've been rolled back or eliminated for certain products. What kind of impact has that had on your business?

Steve Sanghi

executive
#14

So I think the biggest impact of trade war actually wasn't tariff. It was tariff-driven uncertainty towards the landing cost of the products in the U.S. By that, what I mean is, if there's a finality in tariffs at 10%, then customers and industry can deal with it. They can plan, move the product out of China or raise the price to the end customer, pass the tariffs to them as long as there's a finality. For more than a year, there was no finality. Our customers in U.S. and our customers in China couldn't figure out what the landed cost of the product made in China would be in U.S. Would the tariffs be 10%? Would they go to 25%? Would they go higher? Would they totally go away? So you bring a whole bunch of inventory on the show floor in U.S. and you pay 25% tariff on it. And then all of a sudden, tariffs go away. There is a settlement. The customer will not be able to pass that tariff that he paid to his end customers. Nobody would pay if the current regime is 0. So it was -- that was the biggest problem. And we said that before that as long as there's a finality of what the tariffs are, then industry can manage it. That's really what happened with Phase 1. And there is probably a Phase 2 somewhere a year out. But short term, there is really no change. And whatever tariffs are there, they are here to stay until Phase 2. So therefore, we are seeing the industrial demand and other product demand and appliance demand and others largely return because people can now plan.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#15

One of the cyclical dynamics that the company has spoken about is inventory of your distributors. I think you said it's the second lowest level in the last 15 years. If I remember correctly, the company is unsure if distributors will restock. But maybe just to put some potential framing around the impact if they did choose to restock, how much revenue could that potentially add to Microchip if your distributors even got back to normal levels of inventory?

Steve Sanghi

executive
#16

So Mark, somebody in my one-on-one earlier asked me that -- actually, his question was, Steve, what is the best question we can ask you. And I told him that the best question you could ask me is this one, which is if the distributor inventory were to go to normal, how much additional revenue does that mean. And I said I couldn't answer it there because it's a private meeting, but I can answer it here when it's a web-compliant medium. So let's kind of talk through it. Our distributor inventory has been going down now for 6 or 7 quarters where the sell-through demand has been stronger than sell-in. And the distributor inventory last quarter was 28 days. Over the last 15 years, the inventory has been between 27 days and 47 days. I mean those are kind of the bounds. So we look at the midpoint of the inventory, where the distributor inventory would be normal, to be about 36 days. So with the distributor inventory right now at 28, if you were to -- and you have to make certain assumptions because we don't know what customers and distributors will do. If you have to make an assumption that the distributor inventory would go to normal by the end of fiscal year '21, which is 5 quarters from now, then distributor inventory going to normal from 28 days to 36 days, plus if there is a revenue growth between now and end of next March, then there has to be a distribution inventory growth to account for that. That total incremental revenue to take the inventory from 28 days to 36 days will be over $180 million. But I add a caveat that I'm not seeing that will happen. I'm not guiding to that the distribution inventory will go to normal. I have relatively no control over at how distributors will run their business and whether a distributor inventory will go to normal or go halfway or go higher than that. I'm simply giving a mathematical calculation that that's really what it means going to normal.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#17

Thank you very much for that detail. One of the financial metrics that the company had spoken about prior to the downturn was the potential to get to an $8 annual non-GAAP earnings number for Microchip. And then we went into the downturn, and so that created some revenue headwinds. Now that we're coming out of the cyclical downturn, is there a time frame that investors can have in mind about when Microchip can potentially get to the $8 earnings estimate?

Steve Sanghi

executive
#18

Can you take that?

J. Bjornholt

executive
#19

So we're not going to put a time frame around it. What I would say, Mark, is that we are relentlessly focused on getting towards our long-term operating margin goals, which is 40.5%, with 63% gross margins and 22.5% operating expenses. And even in the current environment, current quarter, we're forecasting about 36.1% operating margin. So I think we're well positioned to be able to have operating margin expansion as the top line grows. But what the shape of the revenue curve is going to be, we don't know at this point in time. We're underutilizing our factories today. Back in the December quarter, we had about $16 million of underutilization charges from our various wafer fabs and back-end assembly and test plants, and we need to ramp through that to get -- make progress towards the gross margin targets as well as some other initiatives that we have there. And then OpEx, I think we were known to be quite efficient in terms of the way we run the business and the investments that we make to make sure we're investing enough but investing what we can afford, and so we'll get there over the course of time. And so in terms of the $8, we're not willing to put a date on it, but I think we've got a lot of things within how we've invested in the business and how we're set up if we get revenue growth plus distribution inventory growth back to a more normalized level to be able to achieve that in a relatively short order.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#20

Maybe I can jump to the target margins since you spoke to that a little bit. If I add the $16 million underutilization expenses back, the company, by my math, is already at 62.7% gross margin and pretty close to the 63% target even in the midst of a downturn. So one, I mean clearly, obviously, the gross margins have held up very well in this cyclical downturn. But as we think about the go forward and that 63% margin target that you have, are there any headwinds that we need to be thinking about that could limit the ability to go above 63%?

J. Bjornholt

executive
#21

So there really aren't. We have not updated the long-term model, and we typically don't do that until we get very close or meet the model, but we have very high confidence in the 63% gross margin target. You've already kind of quantified what that $16 million of underutilization does. We're also doing a restructuring of our Colorado factory and moving some of that production to our more efficient 8-inch factories. We've quantified that, that over a 3-year time period that brings about $65 million in annualized cost of sales improvement. And outside of that, we're continuing to invest to bring more assembly and test activities in-house. So you can see we have a lot of things working in our favor to show improved gross margin over the course of time. And as we get closer, we can update the model. What we found in the past, over the last 10 years, is every time we get close to the model, we do another acquisition. And those acquisitions have been of companies that typically have lower gross and operating margins. We don't know if that's the case for our future. And again, we're very focused on paying down the debt on the balance sheet at this point, deleveraging the balance sheet, and we'll evaluate that as we get a few quarters and years away from now.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#22

How should investors think about the timing for the $16 million in underutilization expense to roll off? And has it continued on a certain revenue level?

J. Bjornholt

executive
#23

So it is -- it's somewhat dependent on what the product mix is when the revenue returns to a higher level. So it was $16 million last quarter. We're showing improvement at the midpoint of guidance this quarter on our gross margin. And some of that is because we're having lower underutilization charges out of our back-end factories, assembly and test factories, this quarter. On the wafer fab side, we are not increasing starts at this point in time. We're kind of keeping that steady. So those charges will be with us until the point we start feeling we can ramp the factories and our inventory position is in a little better position. We're carrying higher inventory on the Microchip balance sheet today and particularly for the products produced in our own factories where we haven't wanted to jerk the factories up and down.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#24

You mentioned doing new acquisitions has been one of the things that's taking gross margins down historically. Right now, the focus is on debt reduction with cash. But Steve, you made the point a few months ago that by the time the company is back at its target leverage ratio, there may not be attractive M&A assets this time around given how much consolidation has already occurred. Some semiconductor companies have ventured into the software space to do M&A. And I'm curious if that's something that would be interesting to Microchip.

Steve Sanghi

executive
#25

We're not a hog.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#26

Yes, we'd move on. That's -- I got a lot of questions. So maybe we could talk about market share in microcontrollers. The company has been dominant in 8-bit microcontrollers, close to 30% market share, and I actually think still taking more share in that space, 32-bit, I think by the numbers you'd shared about $1 billion of revenue and roughly 10% market share. How should we think about your market share in MCUs as we move forward?

Steve Sanghi

executive
#27

So as we are analyzing the year ending December data, which SIA released recently, it clearly shows that we gained market share pretty much everywhere: in microcontrollers, 8-bit, 16, 32 as well as analog. So the small amount of market share gains really just almost are constant year after year after year, how we've gained market share over the years. I think beyond that, as we look forward, we have identified 6 large megatrends, which we see in the industry. Those are 5G, IoT, electric vehicles, advanced driver assist, called ADAS, data center growth and machine learning and artificial intelligence. Now you pick various companies in semiconductors, and you'll find that they have very deep exposure to one area. Somebody could be 5G. Somebody else could be totally dependent on data centers. I don't know if you will find a company that has significant exposure to all those 6 megatrends as Microchip has. Maybe you can find another one, but I think we are the only one. So that is exciting to me because 1 or the 2 megatrends in the past, IoT has been going on for many years, they haven't been able to change the growth rate of the industry, and the growth rate of the industry has been very low in the last 20 years. But as I look ahead, the 6 megatrends working together, I feel that -- and with a very, very low distribution inventory, I personally feel that we are better positioned than we have been in 2 decades.

J. Bjornholt

executive
#28

Maybe one thing I'll add, as we typically share information based on the Gartner data that will come out in the March, April time frame, we'll share that on our next conference call and this kind of specifics that we see calendar '19 compared to calendar '18 in terms of market share in the various segments that you mentioned.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#29

Yes. A couple of directions we can take this. But since you brought up the megatrends, maybe I can follow up on that topic. Of those 6 megatrends that you pointed out, is there 1 or 2 that the company's seen the most momentum with at the moment?

Steve Sanghi

executive
#30

When it's only 1 or 2, we don't like it as much. So I think our focus is really distributed across all 6. Many times, they're very similar products. They're analog products from oscillator to converters to power management products. We are seeing them in data centers. We're seeing them in 5G applications. We are seeing them in IoT applications similarly with our connectivity products. Similarly, I think if you take some of the products in the networking area: USB, Ethernet and other products, they're going in multiple markets. So each of those products are going in multiple markets. So it's really not -- I can't say that all of our growth is dependent on 5G or IoT, really none of the above, I think it's all of the above.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#31

Okay. And then on the microcontroller product line, one of the areas that the company acquired from the Atmel acquisition was a 32-bit ARM core. And Microchip has been pretty clear, it's not the core that drives the sale, it's about all the peripherals and the full solution that you're selling. But can you just talk about how helpful it's been for Microchip to have 32-bit ARM and how the growth rate with ARM has compared to the MIPS space core products?

Steve Sanghi

executive
#32

So since we bought Atmel, our growth rate for ARM products and MIPS products have been about the same, which further justifies what we said before that we don't really believe core matters. Now some customers like MIPS, some customers like ARM and some customers don't care. So there are people in each can. What has happened by having ARM is we now have a solution for those customers who do care about ARM. There were other customers who don't care and other customers who hate ARM and they like MIPS. And I think we are the only ones who have all 2, both of them. And I think that has been beneficial. But the growth rate has not been really better on one or the other.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#33

One of the topics that's garnered more discussion in the investment community in the automotive landscape is the potential consolidation in the number of engine control units in cars, they're getting very sophisticated with all these capabilities, and there's a movement at some of the auto Tier 1s that talked about trying to simplify the number of ECUs and have fewer -- a few of the ECU units but have more powerful compute in each one. What potential ramifications, if any, are there for an MCU supplier like Microchip?

Steve Sanghi

executive
#34

So if we only made low-end 8-bit microcontrollers, that would be negative. Today, we make everything. We make very high-performance microcontrollers for pretty much any application. So if the trend goes in that direction, we are equally positioned like everybody else is. However, I am -- I don't think that trend would be as successful. And let me give you a historical example. There were other large-sized companies that I wouldn't name who believed 30 years ago that the cars will have one powerful engine control, 1 or 2, and they'll run copper wires to everything to really run those microcontrollers. I disagreed with that thought that long ago, and the reason being that car manufacturers do not build cars, car manufacturers assemble cars. And every single component in the car, the door module, the cockpit module, the seats, the taillights, everything comes from first-tier manufacturers who had a microcontroller with software, fully functional to each of those modules. If you think of a concept that all these are dumb, nothing works, you put it on a car together and then you expect that everything will work and you test them, that's a very, very difficult concept. That concept didn't even work in a PC, forget about a car. A PC has multiple microcontrollers, one in a keyboard, one in a mouse, one in a camera, one in a fax card, other card, sound chips and others. So there are multiple microcontrollers in a personal computer system, which is very connected, has a very powerful microprocessor, and one could think why does it need anything else. It didn't even work there. Why? Because PC manufacturers don't build PC either. PC manufacturers assemble PCs. Logitech builds a mouse. Somebody else builds something else. Somebody else builds a disk drive, and they are all put together. So when you go to car where the distances are much larger, I believe the concept of a few powerful ECUs driving the entire car is not a viable concept and I don't think would happen. But if it happens, we are equally prepared to deal with it.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#35

That's interesting. I wanted to talk about the FPGA business. It's a segment that's had a lot of nice growth recently. And I think it's one of the underappreciated assets that Microchip has, there's just not that many FPGA providers that are available. Historically, FPGAs for your business were more tied to the aerospace and defense business, but I think there's been some focus about expanding that into new markets. And I was hoping you could elaborate a little bit on the opportunity to take your FPGA line into a broader set of the industry.

Steve Sanghi

executive
#36

So we got the FPGA line through the acquisition of Microsemi. Our FPGAs are very nicely positioned between a very low end of Lattice and a very high end of Xilinx and Altera, Altera now being Intel. We largely do not have much competition in the middle of our space. We do have competition on the edges, both on the low end with Lattice and high end with Xilinx and Intel. But in the middle space, we largely do not have competition. I think we're putting a significant focus on that market, I would like to believe more than Microsemi was doing but -- although I don't really know what the real plans would have been. And we have recently introduced a few chips that really were developed on our clock, and we're developing the next-generation architecture that will actually take it to higher end and will compete more effectively with Xilinx and Intel. Our expertise happens to be very low power. We are the only company where the FPGAs are Flash-based,where both Intel and Xilinx chips based on SRAMs, which take much more power because you have to constantly refresh it. So there's a unique position we occupy. And with that, we're trying to take them into various different markets other than just aerospace and defense.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#37

Steve, you spent some time at analyst days, on different investor conference calls, talking about the importance of culture. And I know it's something you've put a lot of thought into. What do you think it is about Microchip's culture that makes the company successful and unique?

Steve Sanghi

executive
#38

Well, I wrote a book on it a long time ago. Title of the book is Driving Excellence, how we took a failing company and made it a market leader. So if anybody want to pick up that book, I think you will get the answer to that question. But a smaller version of the answer would be we run our company based on 11 guiding values, which begin with: quality comes first, customers are our focus -- I'm losing my voice. The third one is continuous improvement is essential. Fourth one is employees are our greatest strength. Fifth is growth and profits provide for everything we do, and it continues with communication and professional ethics and business partners and others. And the thinking is that we design the enterprise where all parts of the enterprise: our products, our strategies, our factories, our various initiatives all work in unison to achieve our mission. There's a culture where the company is not disjointed, and we have bought plenty of companies and acquisitions where we have found that the left hand doesn't know what the right hand was doing, and they were underperforming, spending a lot of money, having lower efficiency of product output, half of the products they will put into R&D would be canceled before they go to market. Those were signs of poor decision-making, poor coordination and R&D and decision-making across the company. When you look at that at Microchip, it is extremely efficient. 90% of the products we produce go to market successfully. And that's why you're seeing a company where our OpEx and operating profit and gross margin has been much higher than the companies that spend that much, much more money in R&D. And I think that is a result of not that we have better engineers but that's a result of we have a better culture. There is a better system. There's a better methodology, and people work together with the lowest cost to achieve our mission. If I take one example of it, and this comes from some of the companies we have bought in the past. These companies have multiple design centers around the world. And after we buy the company, we compare all the metrics to Microchip, how much CAD spending per $1 million of revenue, what is the revenue per employee, profits per employee and all those kind of metrics, and then we compare those metrics to Microchip metrics. And wherever there is a substantial divergence, we put a circle around it and assign an executive to analyze and see why is that happening and get that to a Microchip metric. And then you have learning from the prior acquisitions, you look for those things in the new acquisition, which increases the speed of how we get the synergy. So one thing we saw in some of these acquisitions were, on the CAD spending, essentially, what we found was these design centers in the various geographic regions of the world were individually getting licenses for CAD and they were all local licenses, they will use it for 8 hours a day. And then for the rest of the time, the idle will -- it will sit idle. And Germany will get their own, and Norway will get their own, and U.S. will get their own and Shanghai will get their own. And we found that the CAD spending was 2x or more higher than what Microchip was per design engineer or per any kind of metric they wanted to use. So we converted it to our system. And our system is we -- global worldwide design centers cooperate. And then with the combined purchasing power, we go and negotiate the CAD licenses, and the licenses are then available on a wide area network. So India comes to work first as the sun rises, and they use it for 8 hours. Then the sun rises in Germany and France and Norway, and they use the same license. Then it arrives in New York and Austin, and they use the same license. Then Phoenix, then San Jose, then Japan and Shanghai and around the world. So our licenses are used 24 hours a day. And so we cut down the number of license that we needed substantially. And from some of these acquisitions, we eliminated 2/3 of their spending. And that's a sign of really efficiency at its best. And that can't happen by somebody giving an order or a CEO doing it all the time. To do that, you have to build a culture. You have to build a culture of various people, company, design engineers, business units working together, pulling together in the same direction to get the maximum speed and efficiency of making improvements. That's what Microchip culture at its best.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#39

Thank you very much for all those details. Maybe we have time for one last question. Just ramifications long-term from the trade war, one of the things investors discussed is the potential for it to become harder for U.S. companies to do business in China. Curious if Microchip has seen anything along those lines.

Steve Sanghi

executive
#40

So we have seen a lot more talk than action. No question that during the last year with the entire U.S. rhetoric, customers will talk about it, but it didn't impact our business. What we are seeing is that Huaweis of the world and their semiconductor arms are trying to build SoCs. They will replace high-end Xilinx FPGAs and others. I think they're trying to design products that can move the needle in revenue. We make 8,000 different microcontrollers, more than 12,000 different analog parts, and no single product makes even 1% of our business. I don't know if any product makes even 0.1% of our business. So you have to accumulate hundreds of thousands of products to really move the needle. So we're not seeing that kind of effort with the larger companies, like Huaweis and ZTEs, to replace these small chips. They're working on a much larger thing. But we are seeing a bunch of start-ups making noise that they will build this, they will build that with very little success because, again, one, you can't move the needle. Secondly, I think this coronavirus is going to kill them. They just can't survive with -- they were not strong enough. They didn't have enough traction to survive a swan event like that. I think coming out of this, my sense is the Americas will be loved more again.

Mark Delaney

analyst
#41

Understood. Well, unfortunately, we are out of time. I want to thank both Steve and Eric for being with us today.

J. Bjornholt

executive
#42

Thank you.

Steve Sanghi

executive
#43

Thank you.

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