Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

February 14, 2022

NASDAQ US Communication Services Wireless Telecommunication Services investor_day 206 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#1

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. If you remember nothing from this session today, and I mean nothing at all, I beg you to just do 2 things. One, print out the press release we put out earlier today, keep a copy of it, put it in your pocket because it has all the key messages we will be delivering today. In fact, it spells out the operational, financial, capital allocation, value creation and ESG targets that we're boldly setting ourselves for the next 3 years. Keep a copy of this press release remind us often of it and hold us to those targets because this session today is refoundational. It's a refoundational moment for us as a management team. We have worked hard and made key decisions over the past few years to get to where we are today, out of Africa and with a clear focus on Latin America with a stronger leading market position in every market and even in the new markets like Panama that we've entered. And with every single business line now growing and with some exciting new ones coming and with young, modernize and state-of-the-art networks that have simple and cost-efficient future-proof technology paths and all of which, after such focused hard work leads us to today. The foundation we have built is so solid that today, we can set ambitious and realistic, again, operational, financial, ESG and capital allocation targets for the next 3 years of our journey. And I said 2 things. So the second thing I urge you to do is to remember this video because none of this has happened. None of this will happen if not for this wonderful culture we have created, this beautiful thing we call Sangre Tigo. Take a look. [Presentation]

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#2

See, Sangre Tigo. So let me tell you briefly how we have set up Tigo up for the journey to come, the foundation for the targets we're setting forth today. The very first thing we did, we centered Tigo around a clear sense of purpose, a simple purpose, a powerful purpose, a purpose that speaks equally to employees and customers and government officials as much as it does to you, a purpose that is tied to that is consistent with our strategy. Because our strategy, our purpose is to build digital highways, digital infrastructure, the digital highways, the digital infrastructure that enables the digital development of the economies of the futures in the markets we operate in. When I was fresh out of college, I used to help write speeches and papers for the government of Colombia. Those were on development policies. These policies all centered around the need for infrastructure for development. Those were the big words: infrastructure for development. Back then, that meant pave roads and highways and ports for ships, so that coffee and bananas and textiles could be exported and so that the real economy could prosper. Most of those projects today in many of our markets, they remain unbuilt. Many of those roads are still just dirt and stone. And this is why our purpose is so strong and so important because for the next wave of development for the digital economies and the digital societies of the 21st century, for the fourth industrial revolution to be real in our markets for our next generation to be able to show its talent worldwide out of Latin America. Our economists will still need infrastructure for development. But what they will really need is for that to mean digital infrastructure for development. And that is what are purpose calls digital highways. The stuff we do every day. The difference is that this time around, and this is the key difference we, Tigo, we are building that infrastructure, not the government, us, the private sector with your capital. They're called mobile data networks and fiber cable networks, and we're doing it while earning you a return. And that is important because that way, we can keep the investment cycle to remain sustainable in the long term. And we can make sure that this time around those digital highways, that infrastructure for development, this time around for digital development, it actually does get built because that's our purpose because that's our strategy. And because it is being done by this amazing team that lives and breathes Sangre Tigo. So yes, the solid blocks to the foundation we have built to everything else we can and will say today, they start with a unique culture, Sangre Tigo, and they're driven by our ambitious purpose to build digital highways. The next foundational block has been the articulation of a clear and focused strategy to create value, sustainable value for all our stakeholders. The slide you're looking at simply depicts the structure we use to create value. You will hear from all of my team on each one of these topics in detail today. So we will discuss how we will drive organic growth in our operating cash flow to 10% on average for the next 3 years. How we will do it by providing more and more fixed and mobile broadband connectivity to our communities. How we aim to unlock hidden shareholder value out of our already large and growing fintech and infrastructure assets. How we plan to allocate our sizable and growing and now true and finally visible to you equity free cash flow. How we aim to allocate that to the business to reduce leverage and to buy back our stock and how we aim to make Tigo an even stronger agent of positive change in the communities we operate in by making enhanced and bolder commitments today, around our already powerful ESG story. So let's rock and roll because we got a lot to tell you. So a few years back, we showed you this very simple chart with 6 key points of focus. This simple organic strategy has informed everything we do, has informed how we allocate capital inside the business, how we put it into network centricity and superiority, how we put it to drive customer focus and how we put it into convergence and digitalization. I'll tell you this, everyone in the organization. If you were to walk around the holes, they know this chart. They call it, although it doesn't look like it, la casita because it's a building block. It drives focus, clarity and unified direction. If it's not here, it doesn't get funded. If it's not here, it doesn't get done. And the most important thing, the most important thing is that this clear operational strategy is working. Today, every country in the perimeter is growing. Every line of business we operate is growing, cable, mobile, B2B, fintech. Our networks are all modernized. Our market shares are growing. Our convergence is happening in key markets, and we are doing that with increasing levels of digitization and better customer satisfaction. We're stronger in every market, in every line of business than we have ever been. I want to focus for a minute on the key investment decisions, the 4 key capital allocation decisions that we have made with your capital over the last few years because they inform how we think about our strategy, and they built the foundations for the next years to come. And because they have been consistent with the operational strategy that I just described to you a minute ago. They basically have gotten us to where we are and are the foundation for our growth going forward. First, we decided to exit Africa. We had no scale, no meaningful market share positions, negative cash flow and no outlook for an adequate return on our capital. Having made this decision has allowed us to free up capital and drive a clear strategic focus into Latin America. Second, we went big, very big and are still going big on fiber cable on broadband connectivity to the home. We ramped up our network build and our expansion. We set up logistic facilities across multiple countries. We created trained and deployed residential sales organizations and customer service capabilities across all our 9 markets. Since then, we have added 5 million home passings in the last 5 years. And we have doubled our customer base over the same time frame. Today, our subscription-based cable fiber business passes over 2 million homes, serves over 4 million households, generates 40% of our revenues and its top line is growing at around 10% annually. And if you can hold your attention for a bit longer today, you will see that we are actually only raising our cable fiber ambition in the region for the years to come. Third, it hasn't been just about fiber cable. We have focused our CapEx on the clear opportunity ahead, the increasing demand for broadband connectivity in our Latin American markets. We have invested to improve and strengthen our market position in every market. We deployed and modernized 4G networks from scratch, and our networks today now consistently rank as the best networks in our markets. We invested in software and tools to transform ourselves into a customer-centric organization, and our NPS scores are today strong and improving. We also embraced a company-wide digital transformation, helping deliver a better customer experience, drive customer loyalty and improve our efficiency and our margins. And we kept doing all of this throughout the pandemic. Today, our brand is stronger and closer to consumers than it was just 2 years ago before the pandemic. And that is reflected in our strong customer intake in the last 2 years across all our markets. We have more happy [ to you ] customers now than we did before the pandemic. Our fourth key capital allocation decision was to enter and strongly so both Panama and Nicaragua to complete and strengthen our footprint in Central America and to own 100% of Guatemala. With Panama, we entered the financial and transportation hub and the fastest-growing economy in Central America with an investment grade and a dollarized economy. And today, Tigo Panama is a clear leader in that market with a #1 position and EBITDA growing now close to $300 million. In Nicaragua, where we are now #1 in mobile in a 2-player market, and we're growing fast on the large fiber cable opportunity, we see more to come. And recently, in Guatemala, we have allocated capital to an immediately accretive to free cash flow transaction, which increases our exposure to one of the most stable and fastest-growing countries in the region and helps us drive our strong equity free cash flow story going forward. And hold your breath for a second because you'll see the results in a minute. And the fifth and most important thing we have done to cement our solid future is to paint ourselves blue with Sangre Tigo. This thing, this Sangre Tigo culture is simply the most lasting thing we have done as a team. It is our strongest, our unique, our real competitive weapon. Come see it for yourselves. Here our teams chant Sangre Tigo before they go to market, before they go get customers, before they serve customers, before they go out to make our communities better with a clear sense of purpose that what we do with our blue Sangre Tigo makes a difference for the long-term future of our communities. So today, we're not spread thinly over 2 large continents. We're focused in a single market, Latin America. We're not just prepaid. We are a lot more than prepaid with a ton of subscription in the system. And we're not mobile only. We've added home residential connectivity and a lot more to come. And today, we have a very cash flow positive business. Today, we're #1, sometimes #2, in most of our markets, in mobile, in broadband, and in Pay-TV. We have strengthened market positions in every market with more customers, better networks, and good and growing margins, partly or largely, I should say, because we have redeployed our capital, your capital in markets with very good industry structures. The region indeed has been consolidated and likely will continue to consolidate, and we have played a role in making that happen. Take a minute to decode this slide. It simply says that we have deployed our capital well into or to help create healthy 2-player markets. To make it easier for us and for every player in those markets, to invest more confidently and to generate attractive returns on those investments that will help develop these economies. And with the additional confidence that comes from knowing that there's still plenty of growth ahead of us because penetration rates for broadband, both mobile and fixed are well below the average even for our region. You don't even have to believe that our countries will eventually close the gap in broadband connectivity and catch up to the U.S. or to Europe or to the more developed economies. Just catching up to Mexico to Brazil to Chile or Puerto Rico leaves us in Tigo with a lot of room to grow for our business. And that's why we continue to invest so confidently in our networks, in our people and in our brand. Only half of our mobile customers today use a smartphone on our 4G networks. And only 1/3 of the households in our markets today have access to reliable broadband at home. And if there is one thing that the pandemic has taught us, it is that having broadband connectivity on the streets and at home has become essential for everyone. So bringing all of this together, today, we have a clear sense of purpose, we've a clear sense and articulated strategy of where we're going. We have a brand that is the strongest it has ever been, a culture that buy rates with Sangre Tigo and a robust and world-class governance structure that I'm going to talk a lot about later on. And we also have quite a sizable and unique business. Our core connectivity business today serves more than 44 million mobile customers that are growing every year, more than 4 million residential customers that are growing every year. And our hidden and undervalued infrastructure assets, they passed more than 12 million homes and 150,000 kilometers of fiber with over 10,000 valuable towers and 13 Tier 3 state-of-the-art data centers. And we continue to add more and more to this infrastructure every day as we expand our networks to meet the strong customer demand that we're seeing. And finally, we have a growing and also hidden fintech business, Tigo Money, 5 million users and $50 million of revenue. They feel quite small, but only relative to the size of our core broadband business. So don't let that fool you, with 5 million users and $50 million in revenue already, we are one of the largest and leading fintech players in our markets. And we know that we're just beginning to scratch the surface of what is possible with our Tigo Money business. This is a unique blue ocean opportunity for us in our markets. No one is doing it quite the way we are and can do it. But as you'll see later, owning and operating these assets is not core to what we do, and they can grow better and reach their maximum potential if we share the upside with savvy and well-connected investors. So we will talk about our plans for these 2 assets, fintech and infra later today. So let's go back to our core business and what it is today. We are a well-balanced and well-diversified portfolio, both by line of business and by country. Yes, Guatemala and Colombia are bigger contributors, for Guatemala gives us steady and growing cash flow, and Colombia offers us a sizable growth opportunity. And roughly, 50% of our EBITDA is split evenly among the other 7 countries. 60% of our business is subscription-based today. That includes the cable fiber business the growing mobile postpaid subscriber business and a part of the B2B business, which is subscription-based and which is accelerating quickly. And our business today has more than 80% of its cash flow coming from countries that are dollarized or where the currencies are either linked or pegged to the dollar. The point I am making or at least trying to make is that we have on purpose and massively rebalanced our portfolio to lines of business like cable, fiber and mobile postpaid and small enterprise B2B and 2 countries like Panama and Guatemala that make our cash flows a lot more predictable and stable than just a few years ago and likely much more than most people realize. So we've effectively allocated over $4 billion to lines of businesses and to countries that provide our cash flow with predictability and dollar-linked growth. So now to the key messages, the part where I tell you what's next. Call it the preview to what we will cover the rest of the day, but effectively, it's a preview to what we will do for the next 3 years, the road map for the next 3 years. The key messages. So let's go. First, we will be accelerating our cable build and upsizing our ambition. We plan to add 1 million new home passes to our footprint in 2022 and about 3 million home passings in the next 3 years in total. That means that we will get to around 15 million passings by 2024 and that our cable fiber longer-term ambition is to pass around 20 million homes. With a network penetration that we're see increasing from the low 30s where we are today to the mid-to-high 30s as demand continues to strengthen for cable fiber in a region. Esteban will walk you later in detail through our enhanced ambitions on cable. Not also that we will speed up our carefully planned evolution to fiber, in 2020, well over half of our new passings will be built directly with fiber all the way to the home. And from 2023 onwards, virtually all new greenfields will be fiber. By the way, the cost to build greenfields is now about 30% lower for fiber than it is for HFC. And as many of you know, the fiber cable network that we have been deploying over the last few years has been built with a plan and cost-effective and very customer-friendly transition path to fiber because we've built more than half of this network over the last 5 years, And almost the entirety of it in just the last 10 years, we've built it with a vision to a migration to fiber. And that is why our network today is so very fiber deep with high available capacity so that on a very targeted basis, we can cheaply as we had planned, drop fiber all the way to the home. I know that this is in your minds, but Xavier here will talk about our smooth fiber evolution and our technology road map in more detail later. What you will soon see is that we have no fiber CapEx surprise for you nor do we have a 5G CapEx surprise for you in the next 3 years. What we're talking about is all within the CapEx envelope that we will discuss later. Second, we are -- and Marcelo will walk you through this, and we will continue to win in Colombia. We are off to a phenomenal start. You know that we went big in the last spectrum auction. We bought 2 blocks of 700 megahertz spectrum. We finally got our hands on low-frequency spectrum, and we fixed for good a big competitive disadvantage that we have because we became the largest holder of 700 megahertz spectrum in the country. And finally, today, we have both high and low frequency bands. And once we've got that spectrum, we quickly built a state-of-the-art network. And today, we have the best mobile network in Colombia with speed, with resiliency, with capacity and with coverage. And on the back of it, we have expanded our commercial distribution capabilities, and it is working. That's the punchline. It is working. For years, our market share in Colombia was stuck in the mid-to-high teens. We have picked up 300 basis points of market share just in 2021. And we are already in the 20s and growing not only in customers, but also on revenue despite the price competition. We added $10 million of revenue in Q2 compared to Q1, then we added $20 million in Q3, and then we added $30 million in Q4 and all of this despite the impact of a new entrant. Here's the point. We're finally winning in Colombia, and you will be inspired and convinced later by Marcelo on why we will continue to win in Colombia. Third, we're making some ambitious and very real and delighted to do so, commitments on climate and diversity. Those of you who know us best know that we are proud to be agents of positive change in our markets because we're large and because we're very visible in every market. We need to lead. Our ESG responsibilities need to be serious, and we need to be leaders so that we are followed by others in a region in making, hopefully, similar commitments on climate and diversity as the ones we are boldly making today. So today, in our press release early this morning, we made some bold commitments, a piece of paper that you have put in your pocket. But they're also here on this screen. So it is clear that we are committed to doing our part to help fight climate change. And to do in our part to foster more diversity, equity and inclusion in our workforce and to, therefore, lead with example for what we deem can be world-class governance for all of our markets. Fourth, the time is right for us to unlock the hidden value of our infra and fintech assets. On the left is a summary of our infra assets. Let's start with what they are, 3 buckets: towers, fiber and data centers. All 3 buckets are important and very valuable infra assets. We will start by unlocking value from the tower portfolio. Why? Because, one, it is a sizable and attractive infra asset. At 10,000 towers, it is one of the largest tower portfolios in Latin America. Two, because it is not a core asset or any longer strategic asset to our core connectivity business. In fact, we believe it would be better managed if more focus could be given to increasing tenancy ratios, growing the base and managing the [indiscernible] contracts; and three, because as a result, this asset will better maximize its full value potential, if we carve it out from our telco business, if we provide it with a separate management structure to operate it and make it grow independently, and if we bring in a financial partner to own a minority position, we will crystallize the value of the asset, provide it with the capital it requires to grow and enhance our own strategic optionality. Indeed, by retaining a minimal portion of the equity within Millicom, we will not only highlight the value of the infra asset, but also preserve the value creation opportunity and optionality that's embedded in this infra asset, and we will do it for you, our investors. The financial carve-out process is already some months underway for our tower business. And on the right-hand side of this page is Tigo Money, our fintech business. The slide show what Tigo Money is today. Pablo, our new Tigo Money CEO will come in later today to discuss what Tigo Money can be. Let me tell you for now that it is a unique value creation opportunity for us. With our brand, our existing mobile payment system and our large cash in, cash out network, we can not only reach the banked in a digital way, but also the unbanked in a most cost-effective way. And that's why we're so excited about this blue ocean opportunity because in our markets, we have been preparing, investing and growing a business that we think can really digitize mobile payments and fintech in our markets. We have already opened up a hub in Panama. We're building up an independent team, and we have been laying the foundations to enlarge a business that can really scale. Pablo will walk you through the opportunity and will take you through our strategy to tackle it. Like the infra tower asset and for the same reasons, we will carve out the business. As a matter of fact, we've already done that with independent management, and we aim to bring in a minority financial yet savvy fintech investor to help us lead the business again like the towers, to its full potential. Unlike the tower portfolio, we aim to retain the bulk of the value creation upside and the strategic optionality of this as a carved out business. And the fifth and last of our key messages for today is our Jerry Maguire moment. For those of you who like the movies, it is the -- when we show you the money movement. All of this work, this entire first half of the game that this team has played together. The investments that we have made into the networks and into the consumer and into fiber cable and into Panama and into Nicaragua and into being bigger in Guatemala and into getting out of Africa, they have all been to build a cash flow machine with clear financial goals in mind and which after the last Guatemala transaction allow us to actually and clearly show you the money. So here are our clean, clear and crisp financial targets: one, to deliver operating cash flow growth of 10% per year on average over the next 3 years. And two, to deliver cumulative equity free cash flow of between $800 million and $1 billion over the next 3 years. Just to be clear, this is cash flow after everything. This is a spectrum, the whole enchilada. Our new and shining CFO, Sheldon will tell you how we plan to allocate this capital, your capital, and he'll do that later on. But please do the math, and I know that you're good at it. Our market cap today sits at less than $3 billion. And we're saying we're going to generate about 1/3 of that in equity free cash flow over the next 3 years. This is what we have been working this hard for. So let's get to the details. put your calculator back in your pocket, and let's get to the details. First, I want Susy, our CHRO to start with Sangre Tigo. She will explain how we have created this unique and wonderful thing called Sangre Tigo and our plans to further elevate our position as the employer of choice in our markets.

Susy Bobenrieth

executive
#3

Thank you, Mauricio. I am delighted to be speaking to you about our most important assets, our people. People are my passion and have been for over 25 years. So I could talk about this topic for hours. But in the interest of time, I'll keep it short and share with you who we are as a company and our unique culture that we call Sangre Tigo. You all have heard Mauricio speak about our purpose to build the digital highways that connect people and improve lives. Our 21,000 employees don't come to work, collectively, we are on a mission, which is defined by our purpose, in order for us to win in our markets we need everyone fully engaged in bringing their best selves to work each day, whether it's fixing towers, serving customers, or leading teams. . Our Sangre Tigo creates an environment where people feel energized, have opportunities to grow and are contributing in a meaningful way. Sangre Tigo was brought to life in 2018 and defines our behaviors and shapes the decisions we make every single day. Sangre Tigo is at the forefront of everything we do and exudes teamwork and passion. We get things done the right way, no compromises, no excuses and no exceptions. We are proud to share that in 2021, we were ranked the #1 telco to work for across LatAm. We also placed 13th moving up from 21st place as the best place to work across all industries according to our Great Place to Work independent survey. In the majority of our countries, we rank in the top 10. Being the best place to work enables us to scout the best talent, exceed our business goals and crush the competition. Instead of me continuing to speak about Sangre Tigo, I would like to share a video where you can witness our Sangre Tigo come to life. [Presentation]

Susy Bobenrieth

executive
#4

Diversity, equity and inclusion play a critical part in our Sangre Tigo. One of our Sangre Tigo values: we are one. Tigo embodies our commitment to diversity, equity and inclusivity. When everyone feels empowered to contribute authentically, it results in advancing innovation that elevates our business, products and our services. We recognize that the strength of our company flows from creating an environment that attracts talented professionals with a broad array of backgrounds, experiences and perspectives that are also representative of the communities in which we operate. We launched our DE&I journey in 2019 with an ask to our employees of where they thought we stood as a company. The feedback was extraordinary with the majority of our population responding. It confirmed a rich multicultural workforce and serve to identify a few gaps we needed to address. Our strategy evolved from this to focus on 3 specific pillars: one, equal opportunities for all; two, diverse leadership; and three, inclusion. Everybody has a voice and feels they can bring their best self to work. Over the years, we have implemented a number of measures to support our 3 pillars, including creating awareness and educating our people. We created leadership standards, which highlights each leader's responsibility in creating diverse teams. In 2021, each Tigo operation established DE&I councils. These helped us identify specific gaps in our DE&I approach and to make targeted improvements in each location. Increasing gender representation in our management and workforce at large is a key focus. And to enhance our commitment to a diverse and inclusive culture and workforce, Tigo is now publicly sharing its diversity, equity and inclusion targets. These 4 targets aim to grow the company's gender representation and underrepresented talent around in our markets. Our 2030 DE&I targets are as follows: we are targeting 50% of women at all levels of the organization. We are also targeting 50% gender balance in upper management positions globally. We commit to train 100% of our employees on DE&I annually. And we will work only with strategic suppliers that have DE&I policies and training in place. Furthermore, we have and will continue to monitor our compensation practices to ensure no gender pay gaps exist. This work will not only shape our company, but it will also shape the industries and the countries in which we operate. We are the first telco to make this big bold move in our markets. I have no doubt that we will accomplish our mission. Let me turn it over now to Karim to talk about our commitments on climate.

Karim Lesina

executive
#5

Thanks, Susy. You already heard on several of our ESG priorities. That's why I will go straight to the point, complementing what was already presented. 2021 was a cornerstone year because we revamped our whole ESG strategy, which today reflects more currently the significance it has in our business in relation to the UN sustainable development goals. Being good environment stewards is a core element of fulfilling our purpose. And to this end, I will cover in a moment how we set our new and most ambitious target yet, our Science Based Target initiative. In addition, climate change is present in different aspects of our business because we believe that our action needs to go beyond mitigation with a more holistic view that also tackle adaptation and the decarbonization of our value chain. You will see this in the scores we received in our most recent CDP report, where we continue to lead our region. And by the fact that we also meet the TCFD framework, which we're all familiar with. Our business maturity has enabled us to identify sound base lines and set targets in D&I, as Susy showed you. We measure the impact because we believe strongly in the positive effect it has in our business, and we want to demonstrate this loud and clear. This is why I want to go back to the ambitious near-term SBT targets we have submitted this year, which I mentioned at the beginning. We will announce this publicly once validated, but they are already active internally and factor into our budget plans for 2022. Our commitment to reduce our carbon footprint in alignment with the Paris agreement goes beyond the next few years. We also joined the Business Ambition for 1.5°C campaign and committed to set net 0 target by or before 2050. This is a big milestone for us, committing to become net 0 by or before 2050 and doing so through the very strict standards of the Science Based Target initiative demonstrate our strong commitment to climate action. For Scope 1 and 2 emissions, we are combining different actions. The most important are the technology investment and planning that we are constantly making to become more efficient in our network management. We're also working on sourcing cleaner energy, which requires a lot of collaboration with different sectors. We seek to work with local government in closely monitoring and finding ways to contribute to the fulfillment of the national determine contribution of our countries. Countries like Paraguay, Panama, Colombia and Costa Rica have been an example of this desire to lead efforts in the region. Lastly, for any remaining gap in our emission reduction efforts, we will use market instruments like Power Purchase Agreements and energy attribution certificates. This way, we are effectively investing in the development of renewable energy options in our markets. With this 3-pronged approach, we will increasingly decarbonize our energy consumption, decoupling our growth from our carbon footprint. I want to touch briefly on another aspect of SBTs. That's the emission from our value chain. We have a big opportunity to continue working with our key suppliers, our procurement team and even with our competitors to make sure that together, we fulfill our potential to enable a new era of low carbon driven economy in the Latin America region. Finally, when it comes to society, we have a lot to share based on our comparable experience in the region. First, let's take a moment to appreciate that our target audience are essentially multiplying agent, creating ripple effects for our program and communities. They reconfirmed the importance of our role in creating value for our communities. This program reached teachers, women, children, parents, mentors, suppliers, as you can see from these numbers, we have exceeded all of our targets for 2021, and we will continue to do this year and so forth because it's the right thing to do, and it's good for business. As a summary, I'm especially pleased with the 5-year partnership we have signed with Fundación Real Madrid because that's another example of how we make a difference for young generation, bringing together sports, value and education to our programs [indiscernible] and Conectadas. This partnership will allow us to reach more than 11,000 children and adolescents, their family and mentors for access to digital literacy. Finally, we could not do any of this without the collaboration and support with some very important partners of global scale. We work together with our partners to make things happen. And this is also how we look forward to working with you, the investor community, as a big part of shaping our ESG approach. We are our [ own ] communities for the long term, which is why we haven't stopped investing in our digital infrastructure, even during the worst moments of the pandemic. With all the projects that we have been running, we have proved that companies don't need to choose between being good ESG steward or doing good business. We can do and will do both. Thank you. And I now leave you with Sal Escalon, who will present you our world-class government system that's unique and a leading example for our region. It's based on European and U.S. standards, something very rare for our emerging markets. It's something we take pride in and it makes us who we are. Thanks.

Salvador Escalon

executive
#6

Thanks, Karim. At Millicom, we're proud to provide investors with the opportunity to invest in emerging markets through a company that's subject to rigorous governance standards and is fully committed to doing business in the right way. Let's start with a look at the various corporate governance standards, which Millicom is subject. These provide a high level of transparency and protection to our investors. First, Millicom is a public company organized under the laws of Luxembourg. It's subject to Luxembourg corporate law, which governs matters such as decision and action by the Board and shareholders, as well as corporate transactions. This also means we're subject to European regulatory reporting requirements and insider trading regulations. Additionally, almost 90% of Millicom's outstanding shares are held in the form of Swedish Depository Receipts listed on Nasdaq Stockholm. As such, Millicom is subject to Swedish securities regulation and Nasdaq listing rules. Millicom has also adopted the Swedish Code of Corporate Governance, which sets forth a number of requirements regarding matters such as the election of directors and the composition and roles of the Board, its committees and management. In keeping with the Swedish Code, 8 of 9 or directors and all members of the audit and remuneration committees are fully independent. Millicom is also listed on Nasdaq in the U.S. where Millicom is registered as a foreign private issuer. As such, Millicom must comply with U.S. securities laws and U.S. NASDAQ rules as well as strict internal control requirements under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. For more on our corporate governance, I would invite you to review our annual report which contains detailed descriptions of the government's requirements applicable to Millicom as well as the work of the Board, its committees and our management team to ensure a transparent and effective control environment at Millicom. Millicom operates entirely in emerging markets, which have traditionally suffered from high levels of corruption. As such, no discussion on governance will be complete without including anticorruption and compliance. Millicom is subject to international anticorruption laws such as the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the U.K. Bribery Act, which established rigorous compliance standards. Our compliance program is geared towards complying with and exceeding the requirements of these laws. We're also subject to local anticorruption laws in our countries of operation. These laws all seek to prevent improper influence on government officials, which can have a tremendously negative effect on the market and business environment. Demonstrating leadership through best-in-class business practices is an important part of driving positive change in our markets. To do this, we have established a corporate Ethics and Compliance program whose mission is to ensure we always do business in the right way. The program has been tailored to address the risks specific to our industry and our countries of operation in relation to anticorruption laws and given our MFS business and the anti-money laundering sphere. Compliance is embedded in our daily decisions and in everything we do. This culture is a vital strength that contributes to the success of our business and meets the expectation of all of our key stakeholder groups. The Millicom Board of Directors has established a Compliance and Business Conduct Committee, which oversees our compliance program, and our management team has established a strong tone at the top that reaches all levels of the organization. As Chief Legal and Compliance Officer, I am a member of the executive team, which reviews compliance-related matters in our regular meetings. There is a strong corporate ethics and compliance team, which includes a VP Ethics and Compliance as well as a director for each of the 3 major areas: corporate compliance, compliance strategic response and anti-money laundering. Additionally, there are local rules for each area in each operation. a local compliance officer, a local investigator and a local AML officer. This allows for a unified streamlined company strategy with company-wide priorities, as well as a local presence to implement that strategy and provide boots on the ground level deployment and presence. We conduct trainings on a regular basis, we run risk assessments, and we run a communications campaign in ethics and compliance all year long. Our code of conduct and its related policies apply to all Millicom and management of Millicom, our operations and our business partners. We measure and report on the actual impact of this program on our employees, our customers, our stakeholders and the communities in which we operate. Millicom operates a global compliance helpline, the Millicom Ethics Line. It's available to all colleagues and equally to third parties, and it allows them to raise genuine concerns or report potential or actual breaches of law, regulation or company policies. The Ethics Line reinforces our Speak Up policy, which strongly encourages employees to raise any compliance-related concerns. So to summarize, here are some of the key features of our world-class compliance program. At the corporate level, we have a robust program that is characterized by an embedded culture, a strong training program, careful vetting of suppliers and encouraging employees to raise concerns so they may be addressed. At the operations, we ensure the compliance program is integrated at all levels of the organization by having strong local teams in each country and by linking compensation to successful completion of compliance KPIs. And the compliance program is subject to strict oversight from the Board's compliance committee, from the executive team and from internal and external auditors. There's much more information on Millicom's culture of ethics and compliance on our website, which I encourage you to visit. Thank you for your interest in this important part of our Sangre Tigo. And with that, I'll turn it back to Mauricio.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#7

Thank you, Sal. That was really good. As many of you know, governance is a topic that I was forced to focus since my very first day at Millicom. And the work that we have done since with Sal and with the Board and with the entire management team just allows me to say today that what we are doing in this area simply means that I hesitate not to say that we are the gold standard in governance and compliance in all the markets we operate in, in Latin America. I want to be extra clear on this. We have built a world-class governance, a world-class compliant organization that has no comparison in Latin America. And yes, I know that we operate in markets that pose additional governance and compliance challenges. But this is what we're doing about it. First, we operate within a strict legal framework. We apply the legal framework from the U.S. and from Europe strictly and by the book to all our operations. We comply with U.S. and with European securities laws and corporate governance, with FCPA, with anti-bribery and with transparency laws to the dot, through the letter and to the spirit of the law. Second, we adopt strict controls and compliance processes. It is not just that we comply and we have complied every year with Sarbanes-Oxley. It is not that we have a dedicated compliance committee of the Board that we meet with regularly. It is not just that we monitor closely the brand health and the social listening of what's happening in our markets to make sure that we are in full compliance. It is that I, personally, speak in my monthly reviews with all the GMs and the CEOs about how we're making Tigo a leader in compliance in our markets and they know that we are keeping score on that. And finally, because of this, we have embedded good governance, good control, not just legally, not just regulatory, but into our culture because good governance and compliance starts with the tone at the top, and it cascades down the way it has for us throughout the organization so that everyone knows that we are about doing business, but mostly about doing business the right way. And that is an intrinsical part of Sangre Tigo. Now let me introduce Esteban. Esteban will walk you through the key pillars, the 6 key pillars that make up our organic growth strategy, and that will drive that 10% operating cash flow growth on average in the next 3 years.

Esteban Iriarte

executive
#8

Thanks, Mauricio. Millicom is first and foremost organically driven. This is the primary way that we expect to create lasting shareholder value over time. Our strategy is both network and consumer-centric. Mauricio showed you this chart a few moments ago. You will remember that our operational strategy to drive organic growth has 6 key pillars. So let's talk about each pillar, starting with number one: Expand broadband. Mauricio mentioned earlier that one of our big capital allocation decision was to go big in cable. And we did, under the fantastic leadership of Luciano Marino and his team, we built a business that now generates 40% of our revenue. And the residential part of that business is growing 10%. Let me give you a more specific example of what we have done in Bolivia. When we decide to go big in Kivu back in 2015, we had 15 Southern customers and 1 network passed only 150,000 homes in Bolivia. Six year later, our network now passes 1.6 million homes, and we have grown the customer base to more than 600,000 with a 40% penetration rate. This is an incredible success story for Millicom, and for our General Manager, Pablo, and the entire team on the ground who have made this happen. And there is no doubt that our significant investment in Bolivia is paying off, both for Millicom and for the people of Bolivia, who now have access to high-quality broadband service, and there is still a long runway ahead of us. This chart tells the broadband adoption story a bit differently, so let me explain. The [indiscernible] shows how broadband adoption evolves in the U.S. market, where penetration is now about 90%. Now look at those white bubbles with penetration rates in the 30% to 40% range, most of our countries have the same level of penetration that the U.S. had back in 2004, 18 years ago. Now, maybe our countries won't catch up to the U.S., but look at where Mexico, Brazil and Chile are on the same chart. Catching up them will imply a doubling of the market from here, and that's the point on the next slide. There are 32 million homes in our footprint today. If we can eventually achieve penetration rates of 60% or even 80%, that will imply a potential addressable market of 20 million, 25 million homes. And if we build the network to reach all these people, we could have somewhere between 7 million and 10 million customers. That's roughly double where we are now. And then when you consider sociodemographic you can see that it is not a static number. Our markets have very young populations, with household formation growing at about 2% and a growing middle class. So the main message from this slide is that we think there is room for our cable business to grow to growth, let me repeat it, very rapidly for a very long time. And on this slide, we show you that we plan to continue on building, about 3 million homes over the next 3 years, and this should translate into at least 1 million new customers over the years. And that's why we expect our home business will continue to be our main engine of growth for the next several years. So now let's talk about our mobile business. In hands of Luciano Marino and his team, it is a great story of growth and acceleration last year. And this is the result of some key decisions we made to continue investing throughout the pandemic, and it paid off with significant customer growth in each of the last 2 years. On the bottom of the chart, you can see that our 4G network now covers more than 80% of the populations in our markets. And we have tripled the number of points of present on our network in the last 5 years. And this investment is fueling our customer growth. And this underpins our medium-term targets on the next slide. As you can see on this slide, we have our sights on passing the 50 million customer mark in the next 3 years. As we gain scale in Colombia and maintain our market leadership everywhere else and just as important, we see room to grow our postpaid base by as much as 50%. We have seen what has happened in other countries in the region, and we are very focused on driving prepaid to postpaid migration, and we continue to see a big opportunity here. Pricing is the key variable to watch, and we will continue to be disciplined in it. Our experience in Panama is a good case study to show a case what conversion means for us. After the integration of our investment in Panama, led by Marcelo Benitez and his team, we quickly adapt our commercial offering to capture this new opportunity. Cross-selling was one of the key areas of revenue synergies that we had identified when we acquired the mobile asset and look at the results just 2 years later. 20% growth in mobile customer base, and we are on track to double our postpaid in less than 3 years. We are now the clear #1 mobile player in the country. In fact, we are the #1 in every product category, and we did this in a profitable way with a well-planned and well-executed integration that unlock important synergies. And this has allowed us to increase our margin EBITDA by 60 basis points, and most of that EBITDA went straight to our operating cash flow, even as we complete our mobile network at grade. And in Panama, in particular, we are just getting started with conversions. Another important pillar of our organic growth strategy revolves around accelerating our B2B growth. A couple of years ago, led by Santiago Londoño and his team, will refine and put in place a new B2B strategy with 5 clear components that you can see on this slide. And the foundation of this strategy was a clear segmentation by customer group to make sure we bring the right resources and the right capabilities to each business relationship, depending on their needs. Going forward, there are 2 key drivers that will dictate whether we can hit our goal of accelerating B2B to mid-single-digit revenue growth, SMB and digital. SMB customers are our faster growing segment with B2B. And when we look at the revenue opportunity in B2B, this is where we see the greatest upside to our growth. Our customer base has been growing rapidly, and we expect that to continue. With respect to digital, this is a part of the business that is exploring. The pandemic has forced many companies to embrace cloud services and other high-value service like cybersecurity, and we have been able to capture a lot of that growth. Thanks to our leading-edge infrastructure, included the Tier 3 data centers that we have in every one of our countries. And we have been retooling our sales force to make sure that they are able to serve services that did not exist just 2 or 3 years ago. The fantastic job our team is doing in the region is getting noticed from global technology companies and we are very pleased to have secured very significant partnership with Amazon Web Services, Microsoft and many others. And while we are on the topic of digital, let me tell you what we have been doing internally. Martin Gallone and his team many years ago recognized the opportunity. And we would map it out our plan to build the ecosystem to manage the end-to-end digital customer journey with a clear goal to make digital the customer first choice in how they choose to interact with us at very touchpoint along their journeys. And you can see on the next slide how rapidly digital adoption is expanding. We don't talk about it much, but we have invested in technologies and in talent over the past few years to make sure that our customers have the best possible experience when they interact with us digitally. Look at the chart on the right, the Mi Tigo app ranks #1 in every country. In most cases, the gap compared to the #2, it's very large. We focus on this a lot because it helps drive adoption. As you can see on the left, digital reloads grew at a CAGR of 55% over the last 3 years and our digital collection grew 50% during the same period. Every digital interaction lower our cost of interacting with our customers. For example, the cost to care to serve our customers had a reduction over the last 5 years of 28%. And it's also enhance the overall customer experience, which usually drives lower churn and higher ARPU. So our focus on digital is an investment that we make in the business, where we see an immediate return with happier customers and lower cost. And talking about happy customers, on the next slide, you will see our customer ecosystem. Under the leadership of [ Nina ] and her team, there are many tools we use to measure the quality of interaction with our customers, and our customer perception of our service and of our brand. On this slide, you can see a sample of the various tools we use. The results on this page are all incredibly positive. I track these metrics on a daily, weekly and monthly basis. Our local teams track this info. And our entire management team analyze this information constantly so that we can continue to improve, anticipate potential channels and take actions quickly so we can incorporate all the opportunities that we see. Our Tigo brand is one of our most valuable assets and we have developed very detailed tools that allowed our teams on the ground to make that brand more valuable every day. So when Mauricio talks about investing to enhance our market leadership in the region, is not just about building homes and adding [ pops ]. It's also about investing in the system and tools that help us to deliver the best possible customer experience. And I'm very proud of the amazing work that our team has done in this area over the past several years. The last point I want to make on organic growth is that we have a relentless focus on efficiencies. And the Paola Ballesteros and her team, leadership, we have a new project every year. We starting back in 2016 with project HEAT. This is embedded in our DNA. This project allowed us to drive efficiencies that can drive our margins higher or that allowed us to capture additional growth. And with these efficiencies and continued service revenue growth, we expect to grow our EBITDA faster than our service revenue. So thank you so much. And with this, I will turn it back to Mauricio. Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#9

Gracias, Esteban. There you have it. Our focus is organic -- we build the networks, those digital highways. And we take care of our customers, and we make it easy for them to interact with us digitally so that we can meet the demand that we know is still there. Now let's move on to Guatemala, where we have decided and gladly so to allocate a ton of capital to increase our stake in our beautiful business. There were many reasons, and you know them well, why we did this. Transaction was significantly and immediately accretive to our cash flow. The business, as we just showed you last Friday, during our Q4 call, has performed really, really well and there's a ton of untapped potential to continue to come from the business. Another factor that we're very happy about investing more and more in Guatemala is the stability of the macro and the political environment. So we have invited and he has kindly accepted, President Giammattei, to say a few words for you today. Thank you, President Giammattei, for accepting our invitation. Let's watch the video. [Presentation]

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#10

Thank you, President Giammattei. We're delighted to be in Guatemala. We have been so for the last 30 years and expect to be there for a long time from today. As you have heard from President Giammattei, the country is opened up for business for our investment and for much, much more investment from the world. Next, is our actual business in Guatemala. We'll start with a short video and then move on to have Luis, our General Manager and CEO in Guatemala, just tell you a little bit more about our broad outlook for our business in Guatemala. [Presentation]

Luis Valladares

executive
#11

Thank you, Mauricio. Hello, everyone. It's a pleasure and an honor to give you a brief introduction to our operation. Today, we are the leading company in the telecom industry in Guatemala. We are a story of leadership, passion, relentless effort and success. We started this journey more than 30 years ago, back in 1990, when we were the first to offer mobile services in Guatemala. In 2011, we entered the home business. And 10 years later, we became the leader in cable and broadband Internet. In 2019, Guatemala telecommunications market consolidated and became a 2-player market in mobile. In these market dynamics, we have been able to keep our growth path and consolidate our leadership, reaching 64% of market share. As you all know, at the end of 2021, Millicom acquired the remaining 45% of the business. This is an exciting new chapter, both for Millicom and for us in Guatemala. We have grown tremendously over the past 31 years. We now have 12 million mobile customers and almost 700,000 home customers. We have invested consistently over the years, building the best networks to provide superior quality and experience to our customers. In mobile, we cover 89% of the population in Guatemala with our own 4,400 towers. We have 2 of the most advanced data centers in the region and more than 21,000 kilometers of fiber, and we are widely recognized by our main attributes, the best signal and the largest networks coverage. We have built a business that generates $1.4 billion in service revenue and more than $850 million in EBITDA, and we continue to grow rapidly with our EBITDA up 10% in 2021 with a 54% margin. And here is the punch line. Tigo, today, is the clear market leader in every product category in Guatemala, and our share of the 2-player mobile market is more than 64%. Now let's look at our financial performance in more detail. As you can see here, we continue to grow our customer base very rapidly, and we grew right through the pandemic. And look at our home business, you can see that we have nearly doubled our customer base in the last 5 years. We are translating that customer growth into healthy revenue and EBITDA growth -- and we have continued to drive our margins higher and higher. The growth of our cable business has been impressive, as you can see on the left. This is our customer growth since we entered the cable business 10 years ago. And we still have a lot of room to grow as you can see on the right. Broadband penetration is still very low in the country at only 24%. And compared to Millicom, home revenue is only 15% of our revenue mix as compared to 29% of the broader group. So we expect our cable business will continue to be a key driver of growth for our business in Guatemala for years to come. Now let me wrap up with a quick summary of the keys to our success. First, let me start with our networks. We provide best-in-class products across mobile, home and business. Our mobile service has the most extensive coverage. We reached 89% of the population with voice services and 76% with LTE, and we are widely recognized by consumers for having the best network in the country. Second, our distribution network is the largest of the industry with over 70,000 points of sale. We have a very robust and solid platform served by experienced dealers. The third key is that we have a very strong brand and we offer a superior customer experience. The way we interact with our customers is superior in many ways, that is shown by our Net Promoter Score, where we lead with more than 30 percentage points versus our competitors. Creating operational efficiencies is part of our culture. We have been able to increase our EBITDA margins steadily in the last 6 years, reaching 53.6%, 1 of the highest for any telco globally. And we continue to look for opportunities. And lastly, and perhaps most importantly, all this success has been only possible because of an amazing team. We are proud to say that across all levels and functions of our organization, we have the most talented and passionate people in the country to drive this great company, full of Sangre Tigo. Back to you, Mauricio.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#12

Gracias, Luis. As you can see, our Guatemala business is performing well, and we continue to see tremendous opportunity to grow in that market. Keep up the good work, Luis and the entire Guatemala team, we need you guys, too. Now let's talk about Colombia. Colombia is another country where we have invested a lot of capital. We have high expectations. You know what we're doing in Colombia, but I want Marcelo to give you a feel for the reality of what we're doing and how and why we're winning in Colombia. Go for it, Marcelo.

Marcelo Cataldo

executive
#13

Hello, everyone. I'm very glad to be here to talk about our operation in Colombia. You can see in the slide, our highlights of the biggest numbers in our operation, 11 million customers in mobile, 1.8 million customers in the fixed business. We are over 4,000 employees working every day very hard to keep growing our business. We have 2 data centers with all the certifications of the highest quality and over 50,000 kilometers of fiber. Our business is very well balanced, as you can see on the right-hand side of your screen in the service revenue. we have over $1.3 billion of turnover annually, which of those near 60% is on the home business, on the fixed network and near 40% is on the mobile network. And of those, 20% is on companies on the B2B business. So we are very, very well balanced. Our 2021 was a great year for us, 6% in growth in service revenue in total, 6% in growth in the mobile business, 8% growth in the home business and double digits, 16% growth in the digital services for our B2B customers. What does this mean? This means that in Colombia, we have a great opportunity to keep doing what we have done in the past years. You can see here our market position. We are #3 in mobile, #2 in the fixed business, in TV and in broadband. But you can see also that we have successfully grown last year, 1 point in the fixed and in the broadband business and 3 points in the mobile business. How did we achieve these 3 points of market share in 2021? Well, the story started in 2019 when we got in the auction of spectrum, 40 megahertz in 700. This increase our spectrum position near 50% and was the key thing for us to grow our network. You can see on the right-hand side, the amount of antennas, we have put together over 5,000 to increase our cover as just look at the number in the urban coverage increasing 10 points from 87% to 97%, which is a great result to keep growing. All this effort you see on the upper side of the slide. On the left-hand side, we have tripled our network capacity in these 2 years. This is significant. And you can see the impact of 700 spectrum in our total network now being responsible for over 90% of the data traffic and 40% of the VoLTE traffic. With all this network and all these recognitions, we were able to capture customers. And you can see in the last 2 years, we have sustainably grown 9% CAGR in these 2 years. And a better network, more customers. You see on the right-hand side below, the increase in revenue, which what I'd tell you is 6% year-on-year at the end of 2021. Obviously, after building this massive mobile network, we have been recognized as being the best network in Colombia. Opensignal, you can see on the 2 tables on the upper side of the slide, the position we were in 2020 in January and after 2 years, how we have moved on the 7 categories that Opensignal measures the network. We were gaining only in 1, and now we leap for 3 semesters the 6 categories that you see in the slide, and we have closed the gap in [indiscernible] now being the second operator with the biggest 4G network in Colombia. One thing to highlight here is that our download speed is 40% more than our competitors. This was also recognized by Ookla in the Speedtest Awards. You can see the 2 below in the slide, where we gain on speed, again, by over 40% more speed than our competitors and also in video experience. Our story in the fixed business has been no different. You can see on the graph on the upper side, on the left-hand side, how we were able to reconvert our older copper network in the last few years, moving from 80% of the home passes being fiber to over 96% being in fiber as of today. And this is reaching near 6 million home passes across all the country. With this better network, we have also moved our users from the copper to the fiber reaching now 90% of our fixed business users connected to the fiber network. This was also with a good management of the ARPU that has been growing quarter-on-quarter on the last 14 quarters. With that, we were able to grow our service revenue constantly and with a high single-digit 8% in the last year. All in all, Colombia is a story of investment but also results. Our service revenue has grown 6% last year. And with the EBITDA, we were able to manage it, considering that we are selling near 100% more than the last years, doubling our commercial capillarity, commercial capability and managing a new entrant that started also last year. Good results, keep investing and keep growing. This is a story of Colombia. And now I will leave you with a short video that shows the story of this beautiful country. [Presentation]

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#14

As you can see, the team in Colombia -- Marcelo and the team in Colombia have the energy and they drive the Sangre Tigo that we need to take Colombia further because today, we're better positioned in Colombia than we ever have been. We got the network, we got the commercial distribution, we got the spectrum, we got the team, and we're driving the financial performance. Marcelo and entire team in Colombia keep it up because we need you to and you're a key contributor to that 10% organic operating cash flow growth that we're committing ourselves to over the next 3 years. Now let's shift gears and talk a little bit about our technology road map. As I said in my introduction, the investment we make in our networks is the first priority of our capital allocation is what I normally call allocating capital internally to the growth opportunity that we have. And you know that we have been investing consistently into our network and into our customers for the past few years. Xavier is going to give you a lot of detail, but we scrub this inside out -- and we expect to manage all of our capital expenditure needs going forward within an envelope of around $1 billion per year, and we can do this because we've invested so heavily in both modernizing our mobile networks and putting it on and very deep into the network fiber. Now let me turn it over to Xavier to actually walk you through the technology road map and give you a better sense of those infrastructure assets that we own and that we think have a lot of hidden value.

Xavier Rocoplan

executive
#15

Thank you, Mauricio. So let me start by saying that one of the strengths and backbone process of Tigo is its agile and strongly govern capital allocation process. So this allowed us to weather many situations as well as capture many opportunities historically. We're both very tactical when needed and strategic and long-term focus were required. Our priority is to drive an investment plan that secure our competitive position on quality and footprint and also to prioritize very strong investment towards revenue-generating activities. And frankly, the results speak for themselves. And within a very fairly stable expenditure plan, we have managed the 50% mobile traffic growth over the last few years. We have increased our 4G population coverage by 9 percentage points, and we've added more than 1 million passed in the last 2 years. So for that reason, we believe there's a good track record to say that going forward, we anticipate a similar CapEx envelope of approximately $1 billion per year, which should lead mechanically to a slight decrease in CapEx intensity overall as we continue to grow the top line. Very important precision, this envelope actually includes the 2 industry evolutions to 5G and FTTH as we will explain in the next chart. So let's start with our 5G agenda. First, I would like to say that there's no specific ask or immediate ask for 5G that we can foresee in our markets, being specific demand or needs that cannot be met with 4G or competitive or regulatory situation that would trigger a 5G launch soon. Of course, this picture will change in the future but 4G penetration remains a top priority agenda and actually best opportunity. We have still only 55% of our data users on 4G, and so plenty of room to go. And 4G is a technology that is still evolving and benefiting actually from 5G development, bringing significant benefits to still handle more capacity when required. This being said, we are actively engaging with all industry stakeholders around the best way to introduce 5G in our markets, of course. And maybe more importantly, we've been using all this time to organically prepare for 5G, as once again, we are still driving 4G adoption. Then on this specific point, it's important to mention, in particular, I mean, first of all, that we've assembled a really good spectrum portfolio over the years with tactical acquisition of 5G spectrum blocks, if we could. Second point is that we have evolved our radio access footprint with through massive modernizations and about 45% of radio access equipment is 5G ready already today. I think the third aspect and not the least that we have prepared and evolved our core networks for 5G, and we're ready to add the additional components to add them when it's necessary. Next point is that we've already also built our multi-tenant, multi-country cloud infrastructure that's going to be important to meet 5G requirements. And last but not least, we have built now a very strong transport network about 70% of our sites are [ backhauled ] of the fiber already, which will be an incredible asset for 5G when that time comes. So my conclusion is for all these reasons, we believe our current investment pace is more appropriate to take the 5G needs on the back of the preparation that has already been executed in the last few years. So a quick update on our spectrum real estate. So a few years back, we communicated on our long-term ideal spectrum allocation per market that is essentially to secure long-term rights for 45 megahertz x2 or 90 megahertz of FDD traditional spectrum everywhere. We're happy to report that we are now in this position in all markets or very close to be there with the right quantity of spectrum like I indicated, but also maybe equally importantly, the right mix of low and high band in all spectrum. We have, like I indicated also in parallel, started strategic acquisition of 5G spectrum in mid-band with a target of 60 to 100 megahertz pair per country in long term. However, it's clear that the 5G regulatory framework is still developing in Latin America, and we're obviously trying to lead these conversations, [indiscernible] with regulators and other key stakeholders, while remaining extremely tactically active on spectrum acquisition as we've demonstrated, we can do very efficiently historically. On the fixed wireline side, our long-term investing investment strategy is paying off and unfolding and let me remind what it is. And first of all, we have no doubt that FTTH will be the retained technology eventually, okay? Actually, there's been very interesting developments as FTTH adoption gained momentum in general and in the region, in particular, as we know. So volumes have been driving costs significantly down and network economics are now more appealing than HFC for new footprint is around 30% cheaper for us to run FTTH for greenfield. For this reason, we decided last year that new footprint will be built directly FTTH from 2022 and this means that the majority of our new rollout this year will be on FTTH, while we will keep expanding through HFC in more brownfield situation. The other important reminder is that we've been rolling out best-of-breed state-of-the-art HFC plant that will allow us by design, a smooth evolution to FTTH, when and where required. And before I get into the details of our evolution path, let me remind you that we're starting from a very, very good place. First of all, we have a very modern new HFC cable network system, about 83% of the networks that have been rebuilt over the last 10 years and almost 50% in the last 5 years alone. We've also made it extremely fiber deep, and we have about 180,000 kilometers of fiber in total these days, an average household per node of less than 500 homes per node in the most strategic area, even less. Third point is that the average speed offered in the market today is still less than 100 megabit per second, while our network are easily capable of more than the 300 megabit per second. And on that note, 67% of our networks is 1 gigahertz and about 24%, 850 megahertz as a minimum. So we have more than what we need to manage growth in speed and capacity in HFC is the message. But as to the evolution to FTTH is concerned, this will happen basically in 3 different ways. First, by using the spare fiber pairs or dark fiber extra capacity, if you will, we deployed as we were deploying HFC, and that can be used now for poor networks simply by adding distribution to it. The second way we're going to introduce FTTH over HFC is by dropping fiber from the nodes we have been installing over the last 3 years. About 15% of the nodes, we have, will allow us to surgically drop over FTTH on top of the HFC connections we have already. And last but not least, by leveraging our dedicated B2B fiber footprint or B2C, where possible and appropriate only more granular distribution is required, which is, again, not a major investment. In summary, it's clear that we are now entering a phase where HFC and FTTH will coexist in our markets. I think it's going to be so for quite some time. We will leverage our HFC historical design and investment to manage that transition very efficiently in the three ways that I have been mentioning and describing. And by being extremely surgical on timing and location depending on the demand of the customer or the competitive dynamics. To give you an idea, we -- you have about 80% to 90% of the households where we anticipate we'll have to introduce FTTH that we can surgically and inexpensively upgrade to fiber, as I explained. And for this reason, we do not expect any difference in our capital expenditure profile compared to the historical levels we've seen. Last but not least, it's really important also to mention the important key technology openings that have made a lot of these possible and that will also help us going forward, increase efficiencies actually create new enablers for the business over time. I think the first one is that we launched the first open RAN network in Latin America, and we are committed to leading the charge on this topic in the region. We see great openings with this technology, efficiencies, capabilities, and we'll drive that agenda strongly to make sure the best use cases for us going forward. We've also launched our own multi-tenant, multi-country private and public cloud. This hybrid cloud really will give us the best of both words, which is capability, scalability, capacity in each market while we also integrated to a public cloud at the same time. This is really critical for our B2B agenda going forward, and it's already in place. We've also evolved our video offering to distribute content, it's part of our supermarket strategy. It's been a great opportunity for rationalization and it's now a critical enabler to push content of a fiber going forward. And finally, we're leveraging automation through AI and ML techniques to increase the efficiency of our network operation, and we've already evolved our managed services model to these new technology openings. We believe that these are really important levers and efficiencies going forward and will lead to even further innovation. So all in all, I mean, the transition to 5G and FTTH will be a continuous and gradual evolution of what we've been doing over the last few years and can be accommodated within our CapEx envelope as we call it. In addition, there are important technology developments open RAN, cloud and AI, ML, like I mentioned, that will help us further realize efficiency gains and drive innovation at Tigo. So over the years, as we have explained, we have invested consistently in our network through our organic investment plan. And as a result today we own a significant amount of state-of-the-art infrastructure, more than 10,000 towers, more than 150,000 kilometers of fiber and 13 Tier 3 data centers. On top of this, we operate, of course, leased infrastructure, another 10,000 and 15,000 sites that we lease and about 30,000 kilometers of fiber that is leased as well. So the long story short is that we believe there is a significant opportunity, first, in operating these assets with an increased focus and secondly, in a more infrastructure-oriented approach. For this reason, we are well underway in our preparation to carve out these assets, beginning with our towers. The idea is to create the optionality and unlock the underlying value of this infrastructure in the future. So for our towers in particular, it happens that we own one of the largest tower portfolio in the region with the key strategic value that Tigo is obviously the [indiscernible] tenant and obviously one of the best quality tenant that you imagine in the region. So now you can also see that 40% of these towers are in Guatemala. So obviously, the timing of the acquisition of the business in Guatemala puts us in a much better position to move the infrastructure opportunity forward. Of course, as expected, our tenancy ratio is still at a fairly modest level and represents an opportunity going forward as we drive additional communication and market synergies along with other operational initiatives that we aim at operating the sites more efficiently than we currently are. The first step to create that value is to separate the assets and also to manage them independently from an operational perspective. This will allow us to place more focus to harvest operational efficiencies as well as improved utilization levels as we discussed. And the carve-out will open also opportunities to optimize the capital structure around infrastructure going forward. So as you heard from Mauricio in his introduction, we are actively preparing ourselves to crystallize that value and the carve-out is the first step in that path. And by the way, this is really not new for Tigo, and we've done this in the past. In fact, I personally participated in a similar transaction in Africa with Helios when we carved out our African tower assets, until the company went public, and we finally did exit the business. This is a well-known topic for us, and we're committed to create and crystallize the value going forward, again, starting with the towers. In fact, as you can see, we have interesting perspectives about the real potential of this opportunity for Tigo. And first on size, as we mentioned, 10,000 tower is actually very relevant. And secondly, the operational levers and the tenancy targets or potential in particular, while managing the towers in -- with a different mindset should lead in a much better utilization overall. Actually, incidentally, our tower portfolio in Latin America, relatively to Helios today is a very good illustration of the size of the opportunity for us. For all these reasons, we really expect to unlock significant value for Millicom shareholders as we execute on this project over the next 12 to 18 months. Now let me turn it back to Mauricio.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#16

Let's see Xavier. As you can see, there's a ton of potential value creation in that tower portfolio. And we will, of course, be looking at our other infrastructure assets in due course. Despacito says the song. Now let's talk fintech, Tigo Money. Earlier on, I told you why we're investing in this area. In a sense, we're approaching Tigo Money, the same way we did with cable in Bolivia and Guatemala and in many other places, some years ago. We saw an opportunity, we set the strategy, we built the team and we went for it. That is exactly what we're doing with Tigo Money. There's just a blue ocean of an opportunity that makes sense for us with the infrastructure that we have to develop. So let me introduce Pablo. He is the new CEO of our Tigo Money business, and he will tell you in detail what we are planning. For Pablo, this is a little bit of a [indiscernible] moment, a moment where we present to you what Tigo Money is and can be. It's a debut moment. Pablo?

Pablo Montivero Araya

executive
#17

Mauricio, it's good to be here today. Let me tell you a little bit more about Tigo Money. Tigo Money LatAm's journey started back in 2008 in Paraguay when we launched Tigo Cash to enable P2P money transfers in USSD. 2 years later, we launched Giro Tigo Cash focusing on financial inclusion. We expanded them to Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador in 2011 and then to Bolivia in 2013. We have evolved the portfolio of products available for our customers encompassing last mile delivery for international remittances, bill payment services, bulk collections and salary payments, and we are connected to the ACH system in most of the countries. In 2020, we completed a strategic review of the business, and we concluded that we had a significant opportunity to go big in this business. I joined the company in 2021 to lead this effort and have established a new fintech hub in Panama with a stand-alone Tigo Money organization that we are building out as we speak. Tigo Money today is present in 5 out of 9 countries where Tigo best business in LatAm. In 2021, we have more than 5 million unique customers that generated over $4 billion of transaction value and total revenues, just over $50 million. Our revenues has grown double digits in each of the past 2 years, and we know that there is a significant room to accelerate our growth over the next 3 years. Tigo Money has a solid opportunity to become a leading fintech player in the markets where we operate. Look, banking penetration is below 50% in most of our markets, while smart phone penetration is much higher at 77%. And the LatAm region is going through a massive tech disruption with a young and digitally savvy population heavily reliant on cash. We estimate that total addressable market in terms of revenue is about EUR 14 million, which provides Tigo Money with a long runway of growth ahead. We believe that Tigo Money has a blue ocean opportunity in a geography where it has already a strong market leadership. Tigo Money already reaches 5 million active customers, significantly more than any other fintechs in our markets. Tigo Money is already the leading mobile wallet in a growing number of digital use cases in our markets. Tigo has more than 45 million mobile, 5 million residential cable and 340,000 SME customers, providing a wealth of historical data that we can use to cross-sell our products. Tigo Money can also leverage the capillarity of more than 300,000 telecom points of sales. And of course, we have a strong brand awareness across all markets where we operate in. We have a dual growth strategy focused on both individuals and merchants, interacting across different platforms and services. We are now building the digital ecosystem, which will rely in 4 main platforms: First, wallet, which provides main access to the ecosystem, facilitate digital payments to consumers, which drive recurrence and generate data to cross-sell our products. Our key objective here is to drive the traffic. Then merchants provides a high value proposition for users, making the wallet a universal payment method, generating data for financial products. The key objective of this platform is traffic and engagement. And lending give access to digital and immediate credit to both B2B and B2C customers with the objective of monetization of our user base. Money allows users to manage at value, protect and grow their money in the ecosystem with a key objective of increasing users' engagement. The ecosystem that we are building will rely on a solid tech stack with build to replicate consistent user-centric experience, operational efficiency and adaptability to local context, which will enable long-term scalability of our solutions to reach mass market and to unlock economies of scale and context. In parallel with our platform development work, Millicom teams are increasingly focused on capturing the opportunity that already exists and this is starting to come through in the results. We saw this in Bolivia last year where Tigo Money revenues more than doubled. Paraguay had a solid double-digit growth as well, while Honduras is more than 60% over the past 2 years. In 2022, our priorities will be to release Tigo Money Wallet 2.0 with a totally new user experience and more relevant use cases. We're going to launch our merchant platform, and we have a target, which is to reach more than 90,000 merchants by end of year. We are going to initiate also our lending platform. Over time, we expect that lending will become an important revenue stream for us, and we are already piloting some services. And last, we will begin the Tigo Money access car, allowing intent access to a wide network of point of sales. In terms of markets, we're going to boost Guatemala. Now that Millicom 100% of that business, we have a very limited presence in that market today, but a great potential. And we are entering new markets such as Panama. 2022 is going to be a really important year for us, the year of the transformation of Tigo Money into a full digital fintech business. And I'm really excited of leading the team that is going to be working to make this happen. With that, let me turn it back to Mauricio.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#18

Gracias, Pablo. So hopefully, you can see that we have a bold ambition. We have strategic clarity and that we are supporting Pablo and his team independently so that they can execute on the game plan. We also realized that for this business to thrive for this business to realize its full potential. It will need more independence from Millicom. And that's why we're carving it out as we speak. That is a first and a necessary step. And of course, a more independent Tigo Money will also be able to tap new pools of capital, grow with our capital and reach its full potential. We are indeed in the early stages of attracting one or more new partners who have LatAm fintech expertise to complement what we already know and what we have done elsewhere, like in Tanzania. Remember that we're not new to this. We created and have operated one of the largest mobile financial services businesses in the world -- in Tanzania and we cannot see that there is a large opportunity for us to replicate and improve on that model with a ton of success in fintech in our Latin markets, and the time is right for us to focus on that hidden opportunity. All right. We're almost done today. It's time for that talk than money talk. I said earlier, we expect to generate between $800 million to $1 billion of cumulative equity free cash flow over the next 3 years. And just to be clear, this equity free cash flow, this range is after leases after spectrum, it's up everything. This is the amount of cash that we expect to have available for things like debt reduction or buybacks. Normally, this is where I would hand it over to Tim to present this. But as you all know by now, Tim has announced that he will be leaving us in the next few months and that he will miss out on the most fun part of our ride, the second half of our game, but I want to dearly, really, dearly thank Tim. On behalf of the rest of the team, we have the Board and they have so many investors because he has been a true partner, a true friend and has helped create these foundations that allow us to look into the second half of this game so positively. He has been a partner. He has been a friend, and we will, I will miss him dearly. Thank you, Tim, for helping me select Sheldon. No better man could continue to do what you started. I'm extremely pleased to introduce Sheldon. He recently joined us, but you'll see in a minute that although he'll come on as CFO just on April 1, he's already up and running. He's got it. He can answer any questions you throw at him. So he's going to present the next stage, our second half, and he will tell us what he plans to do with the capital that we expect the business to generate over the next 3 years.

Sheldon Bruha

executive
#19

Thank you, Mauricio. First, I want to say it's great to be here at Millicom and to work with the talented group of colleagues that are presenting today, and I look forward to communicating with all of you in the quarters ahead. I want to start with the macroeconomic fundamentals of our markets. As everyone viewing is aware, the overall economic backdrop is much more complicated than in previous years. Global concern about markets, continued COVID impacts and an uncertain recovery, increasing interest rates, higher inflationary expectations and so on. But the key point I want to emphasize is that the markets we operate in are much less risky than you think and generally are expected to perform reasonably well, particularly in the context of the overall Latin American trends. GDP growth for our 9-country footprint, as estimated by the IMF is forecasted at 3.5% for the next 4 years, materially better than the LatAm average of 2.5%. Importantly, our largest countries are all at or above this 3.5% average led by Panama with 5% forecasted growth. Turning to inflation. Forecasted inflationary levels are higher than historical levels, but relatively stable at just over 3%. Again, this is significantly below LatAm averages. In fact, almost 50% lower. Next is forex. People look at us and tend to think we have a lot of volatility within forex of our businesses. A few areas to highlight. Over 25% of our revenues are dollarized. What I mean by that is that they are either from El Salvador Panama or from Bolivia, which is paid to the U.S. dollar. Another 1/4 of our revenues are from our largest market, Guatemala, where the forex rate has been extremely stable to the U.S. dollar over the last 20 years. In fact, it is actually modestly appreciated against the dollar during that time. So around 55% of our revenues have little or no forex impact. Our most significant country volatility is within the Colombian peso and the Paraguayan coronary, which together account for a little over 30% of group revenues, but much less than that on a proportionate basis, recognizing our 50% ownership in Colombia. And as you heard from Mauricio earlier today, it's less than 20% of our operating cash flow. So to conclude here, we see improving macroeconomic environment. We're not being complacent about it, but need to look at it in the context of where we were and relative to the other countries in the region. The reason for this is that one of the big drivers of economic activity, particularly in our Central American footprint, are dollar remittances. Remittances make up a significant portion of the GDP of Central American countries. This slide shows that the U.S. dollar remittances have been at record levels in 2021 and have increased substantially since the onset of COVID. In 2021, we have seen remittances up 35% in Guatemala and 28% in Honduras. So very strong remittance growth. And it is important because Central America is where we generate approximately 60% of our group revenues, and this dependency on U.S. dollar remittances makes us highly correlated to U.S. markets. Another positive backdrop to our markets is the improving position vis-a-vis COVID. Mobility in our markets suffered more severely than a lot of other places in the world during the initial lockdowns of COVID. But not only has mobility recovered, it now exceeds the levels pre-COVID. Even more, the recovery is better than the recovery in the U.S. and other key countries on this measurement. This is partially fueled by increasing vaccination rates, which after initially being delayed, have been accelerating strongly. Before getting into our outlook, I want to spend a moment reviewing how our reporting will change in 2022. The acquisition of our remaining minority stake in Guatemala, our largest operation means that we will fully consolidate that business in 2022. Additionally, Tanzania, our last remaining African business is expected to close shortly. These two events are key to enabling us to simplify our reporting to you going forward. In terms of our other partnerships, under IFRS, we consolidate 100% of our 50% owned Colombia business and we consolidate 100% of our 80% owned Panama business. But we do not consolidate any of our 67% owned Honduras business given the arrangements of the shareholders' agreement. The result of all this means that beginning in 2022, our group IFRS financials will very closely align with the proportionate ownership of our Latin American business operations. So going forward, we will discuss the group using our IFRS reported numbers. And this is the basis of our medium-term targets that we will discuss in a moment. This means that Tanzania for the remaining time in the group and Honduras will be outside the scope, although we will continue to report these numbers in our segmental reporting. So our financial reporting, disclosures and presentations will be greatly simplified and much, much clear starting in the first quarter. So now let me bring together what you've heard from the team today and connect the dots to what this means for our business outlook. As I do, please be reminded that we have a pending equity rights issue about to commence. So we cannot give guidance specific to 2022 at this time. As you've heard today, we have an effective strategy and attractive organic opportunities that can deliver organic revenue growth in the mid-single digits. Our home business is the key driver. We intend to build around 3 million new home passings and connect at least 1 million incremental homes over the next 3 years, which will result in high single-digit growth for the business during this time. with a long runway of growth beyond. B2B will also be a key contributor, and that business will accelerate to mid-single digits through 2024. Our mobile can grow at low single digits, fueled by continued customer and traffic growth and from the ongoing migration of customers from prepaid to postpaid. Finally, as you just heard, we have big plans for our emerging Tigo Money venture. And we expect it will accelerate and become an important contributor to the top line growth in the next 3 years. Walking further down the financials, operating leverage and continued operating efficiency will drive EBITDA growth and excessive service revenue growth. Xavier walked you through our capital investment plans, and we can achieve our objectives while maintaining CapEx at around $1 billion per year. So you should see our CapEx to sales gradually decline from 2021 levels, all of which results in organic growth for operating cash flow or EBITDA minus CapEx of around 10% per year. Taking all this and subtracting our fixed costs of interest expense, lease costs and taxes, adjusting for any working capital movements, subtracting spectrum costs and incorporating dividends received from Honduras and paid to our minorities were as Mauricio says, after everything, we are targeting equity free cash flow over the next 3 years of $800 million to $1 billion. Again, all of this is rebased to reflect our new IFRS reporting parameter. Just a word on spectrum. If you go back to 2015, you'll see that we spent approximately $80 million on average per year. And the only year we spent more than $100 million was in 2020 when we spent $180 million to acquire 700 megahertz spectrum in Guatemala and Colombia, both highly strategic purchases. It's always hard to predict the exact size and timing of future spectrum purchases, but we think it's prudent to assume that we will spend more in the future than we have in the past. So we assumed $150 million per year in our 3-year equity free cash flow target range that's equivalent to about 2.5% of sales per year. So finally, I want to conclude on our capital allocation framework. Investing in connectivity, customer acquisition and IT to maintain and increase our competitive position is the first of three capital allocation priorities. As indicated throughout this morning, we believe we can achieve our organic growth ambitions with an annual CapEx spend of around $1 billion. Even after these capital expenditures, and as I just indicated, we expect to generate cumulative equity free cash flow of between $800 million and $1 billion in the 2022 to 2024 period, which takes us to the second and third capital allocation priorities. We reiterate our leverage target of 2x as the foundation for disciplined capital allocation and a commitment to returning capital to shareholders over the long term. In 2022, we will prioritize leverage reduction and expect to drive our leverage to below 3x by the end of 2022. We also intend to return capital to shareholders over the long term with the resumption of buybacks planned for 2023 and as we progress with our deleveraging, we will allocate a higher and higher proportion of equity free cash flow to shareholder remuneration. With this capital allocation approach, plus the organic growth of our EBITDA, we expect leverage to fall to around 2.5x by 2025 and progress thereafter to our 2x target. Thank you. And I'll turn it back over to Mauricio.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#20

Thanks, Sheldon, and again, welcome to the team. Now before we take your questions, let's recap the key messages that we put out in our press release this morning and that you have heard today. First, we will drive 10% organic operating cash flow growth on average in the next 3 years. Two, we will generate equity free cash flow of $800 million to $1 billion over the next 3 years. We will do this by continuing to invest in our networks and by continuing to focus on our customers to drive adoption and customer growth in reline business with relentless focus on efficiency that will help us drive our margins higher. Third, we plan to use our free cash flow to reduce leverage as our first priority, and we will resume share buybacks in 2023. Four, we have huge potential to unlock hidden value by carving out and bringing in fresh capital into our infrastructure and Tigo Money businesses. And fifth, we are again raising the bar on ESG by setting new and ambitious goals on climate and diversity, and we will continue to ensure that we do all these things within our world-class governance framework. Thanks for joining us today. We're now ready for your questions and hold on to the press release we put out today.

Operator

operator
#21

Thank you, Mauricio, and to the whole Tigo team for your remarks this morning. We definitely covered a lot of material. We now will begin the Q&A portion of today's event. [Operator Instructions] Our first question today will come from Diego Aragão at Goldman Sachs.

Diego Aragão

analyst
#22

Yes. Thanks. Look, congratulations on the event. It was great. My first question is related to CapEx. I was honestly a bit surprised with your guidance for CapEx, nearly $1 billion per year. As this came at least much lower than my expectations. And it would imply, let's say, a number that it's 5% to 10% lower than your guidance over the past 12 months, right? So I just don't want to hear your views about the guidance, especially considering all the current environment. We've been seeing some currencies in LatAm devaluating over the past couple of years. And even though you do not have a lot of exposure to local currency, I think this ultimately could impact negatively you, right? And because we are also ahead of investment in 5G, I just want to understand a little bit about the guidance CapEx? And the second question, if I may, is just related to Guatemala. I mean I just want to hear from you now that you no longer have a minority shareholder in there, is there any kind of efficiency we could expect from Guatemala? That's my second question.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#23

Sure. So let me get a crack at it first, and I have the benefit of today having Xavier our CTIO we can complement at correct change if you want the question about CapEx. And for the last time, I guess, in a set like this, two CFOs that can complement everything I say. So let's start with the CapEx question, Diego. I think there's first a perimeter difference that I think Sheldon and his team can address which is simply not going forward, our presentation will exclude Honduras, simply because I want to show you the clean, crisp consolidated numbers. So you'll see Honduras coming, not even in the consolidated operational and financial numbers, you'll see it come in simply into the cash flow as a [ dividend ] to us. So I think Sheldon can address that in a minute with a little bit more detail. So that's just a pretty [ minor ] difference. But there's also a conceptual difference that we've highlighted for a period of time, which is -- for the last few years, we've invested heavily. My tenure in Millicom has basically been about building a 4G network. We now have 4G coverage to around 80% of the population and 90-plus percent of the urban areas. So that's big. Number two, we've been modernizing networks. So you've heard us talk about the modernization of the networks in Nicaragua, in El Salvador, in Panama and Paraguay, where starting with Honduras. So all of that is also behind us. And on the back of that, we put a lot of 5G, not just fiber like we was talking about, but also 5G into the RAN infrastructure and 5G into the core. So that's also behind that. It's already in the network today. And most importantly, we've also built a ton of network in Colombia. We're about 2/3 of the way into the build of the Colombia network. That's also in the rearview mirror. So as we look ahead, our CapEx is largely, largely consumer or growth driven, as I said on the call on Friday, that's really what drives our CapEx going forward because we have a lot of fiber, a lot of 5G core, and our 5G rank already into the network. And that's what we feel very comfortable to talk about that $1 billion envelope going forward. Now on Guatemala, I think Esteban did a phenomenal job. We just -- we really have an efficiency project every year because that's how you keep getting better. And we call them efficiency projects because they're not about cutting costs. They're about getting better and better and better at all levels. Guatemala's business that we have managed with our partners collectively and with this thing very actively, there are pockets of efficiencies going forward. They're baked into our projections, and we're driving them significantly. So with that, I'm sure Sheldon, Xavier and even Esteban may want to add to my question.

Sheldon Bruha

executive
#24

I'll just add just a quick comment around the CapEx perimeter. We included some tables in the Q4 results in the earnings release rebasing some of the historical numbers to the new perimeter, excluding Honduras. And actually, it was also on the slide of my presentation here. But for 2021, what we were for the full year, the rebased CapEx have been just over $1 billion -- [ $1.4 ] billion to be precise. So what we're saying from an outlook perspective now about $1 billion a year, that would have compared to in 2021, where we spent ex-Honduras about [ $1.4 billion ].

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#25

Xavier, anything else, a step on efficiencies or on CapEx feel free to jump in.

Xavier Rocoplan

executive
#26

No, Mauricio, I would support what you said. We did already three ways that I showed in my presentation in terms of efficiencies, looking to sustain and to grow as we grow the margin EBITDA in Guatemala, which is a very important asset. And we also did the same thing in the rest of Latin America. So going forward, we are very confident that we can go deeper and deeper, getting more efficiencies and managing our costs.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#27

I think the one thing Diego that I think is very important is we are great believers as you saw, in the impact, the power of digitization to bring costs down. We're doing quite a bit of our top-ups now, almost 10% digitally. That's major in terms of getting our margins up. And our collections on the subscription part of the business are 30% to 40% down digitally. When you compound that into the future, that's really where the efficiencies are going to come for this business. Xavier, any comments on the $1 billion CapEx envelope?

Xavier Rocoplan

executive
#28

No, just to add, I think the key is the optics of the change of perimeter is probably the key parameter here. And my message around -- it's more continuity. I think the point that fiber and 5G is getting scale worldwide. And we have the benefit of doing things on a regular basis. So to avoid exactly the spikes of technology change. So we do it as we go, and that's a key parameter here for us. I mean, that's why most of the base stations we push already 5G capable we put HFC, but we put fiber extra pair of fibers in the streets, et cetera. That's the explanation.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#29

Thank you. Diego [indiscernible] you are phenomenal moderator today.

Operator

operator
#30

Our next question will be coming from Marcelo Santos at JPMorgan.

Marcelo Santos

analyst
#31

I'd like to focus a bit on the hidden asset, Tigo Money. So you mentioned a $14 billion addressable market. Could you please give a little bit more of a breakdown. What's in there? What kind of services are there? And as a follow-up to that question, could you talk a bit more on the lending business on Tigo Money, who will be providing the funding who would take the risk? I think that would be interesting.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#32

Good. So I'll get started and then Pablo can -- since he is being set up to be independent, he can be independent. So listen, the $14 billion TAM, it's a number, right? We looked at 1,000 ways and I can give you a much bigger number, depending exactly where it's going to Tigo money play. It could play in so many places at $14 billion is just a number. We've taken our markets, we're taking the size of the banking opportunity there, and that's what we're using. But the key Tigo Money, Marcelo from an opportunity point of view is that we can both be from a product point of view, they're leading to begin with payment system, digital mobile payment system in our countries and from there on, evolve into the more value-accretive ways for higher ARPU generating ways of fintech lending, microcredits, consumer credits, et cetera, et cetera. But our game is clear. First, we become the payment platform of choice in our markets. Where we have the brand, the customer penetration, the cash in, cash allocations and the blue-ocean opportunity. No one is doing these in our markets, and we are already getting there. Pablo's task next year is to create from the 5,000 merchant businesses that currently take Tigo Money grow up to 95,000 so that people can use Tigo Money just about everywhere in these markets. To drop QR codes in all of those merchant locations so that the use case opportunities are really, really strong. And then we tap into all of those remittances that throw billions of dollars into the economies where Tigo Money exists, they basically provide cash in Tigo Money to become the digital platform of choice. If you couple that with the fact that just about everyone in the markets has cable or phone, unlikely that now they already have a Tigo phone -- they trust us. They already use Tigo Money. We need to use them use cases so that they start using us as a trusted digital payment, the digital wallet of choice. And we can do something that no other fintech can do because I just described a regular fintech. We can do something that no other fintech can do, which is we can actually reach the unbanked because we have, as we speak today, 18,000 Tigo Money locations where we take cash in and where we cash out money. And these are Tigo Money. These are not Tigo locations. Those are multiple of those people already trust it. So we've already created the trust to have Tigo Money being a digital wallet, QR codes, merchant banking with hours than to with this fintech reach both the banked disruptive runner and the un-bank in a clear undisrupted manner so far. We've actually done a little bit of this in Tanzania where 30% of our revenue was already Tigo Money. So we have some expertise. The opportunity, however, here is scalable throughout all of our partners in Latin America and the brand has a power that is has nowhere else. So that is why we're so bullish on Tigo Money. We have things that nobody else can. We can be both fintech to the bank and fintech to the unbanked with the strategy that I just disclosed -- so with that, Pablo has been tasked with a tremendous opportunity, which is to make these happen. And in order to do that, like we said during the remarks just a little about our goal, we need to give Pablo and the team more fintech experience -- they already have some but we priming a minority partner to provide that fintech experience. If we provide them from that investor growth capital for the business, then we will allow this business to be all it can be -- what's in it for us, Millicom is the value creation opportunity. And that's why we're interested in retaining the equity in the business and enhancing strategic opportunities. Pablo, convince these guys are you're killing them.

Pablo Montivero Araya

executive
#33

Yes. Well, just want to add one small comment. We are in the process of consolidating the wallet and increasing our digital users. And there is where the merchant platform will come in place in order to create the ecosystem. And regarding lending, you're going to go a little by little, with an MVP 1.0, and you will start to try to deploy that platform. So it's not going to be a big movement at the beginning.

Unknown Executive

executive
#34

Maybe she probably want to [ take ] a little bit on the lending as well complement republisher.

Timothy Pennington

executive
#35

Yes, yes. It will be -- as part of the opportunity set here, lending will be a component of what we're going to be doing. And including in that, we're going to be testing that early on in several markets on a small scale. There'll be a lot of governance around clearly how we're doing this and ensure that, that's all done in the right way. We're not overextending our sales, and we'll be testing the credit quality and so on in customer base as we roll this out.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#36

So on that one, so I want to be super clear because I've been to the team. The strategic part is to grab the opportunity on becoming the digital payment platform of choice in our markets. That's a solid foundation we test lending, learn a little bit about lending. It's going to be microlending, by the way. So limited in scope. And we're going to be doing this with a unique asset, which is all the credit history that we have on all the years of [indiscernible] -- from a client base, we have a ton of credit history, artificial intelligence can be used on that credit history to make our lending unique from Intel point of view.

Marcelo Cataldo

executive
#37

Yes. Complementing on that, that is key. Once you have the data and you have the ability to bring more data, you use pending algorithms and your position will improve and your default rate will go dramatically go down and will, by far, be lower at some point in time than the banking system.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#38

You may not know this Marcelo, I don't know, but we already do quite a bit of lending [indiscernible], Guatemala and other locations, just not money, but will in minutes based on artificial intelligence and credit history for our clients, we just lend them their time, and -- which we have a decent track record of making sure that we land properly.

Operator

operator
#39

Our next question is from Stefan Gauffin from DNB.

Stefan Gauffin

analyst
#40

Yes. I would like to dig into the cash flow target of $800 million to $1 billion over 3 years. I just would like to understand the calculations a bit more. If I start with the underlying cash flow of $490 million for 2021, then we need to also deduct the spectrum, remove Honduras and Africa. But I guess, Colombia was cash flow negative right now. And what's your view on Colombia contribution? And just by looking at the target, grow service revenue with mid-single digits and grow EBITDA faster. If we just assume 6% growth in EBITDA, that would mean EBITDA growing around $500 million to 2024. And you would keep CapEx stable There's, of course, some increase in tax. But your assumption says it should be between $267 million to $330 million per year over this period. And I just think that sounds very, very cautious. Please help me understand the math here.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#41

Stefan, when you get these guys to bridge you from 2021 into the future, can you just give me a call and let me know how to do it because it's just brain damage to try to do that bridge. I'm honest with you. Because up until now was very difficult. But from here on, it's going to be extremely easy. [ Sheldon ] will commit that he has to just give it to you on a quarterly basis. This is what our equity free cash flow is for everything. Obviously, Honduras will come in the form of dividend, et cetera. But other than that, it's going to be clean that we have never been before. So let me perhaps before I hand it over to the brain damage that will require for Sheldon to answer your question, give you the paper napkin view of this. The one that you can just do even without a calculator. So the key number for 2021 rebased to the new perimeter, the one that we're using one is operating cash flow of $1,225. That was in the presentation somewhere. That's basically the operating cashflow, excluding one [indiscernible] for $1,225. And Sheldon [indiscernible] correct me. And that's the number that we're seeing. On average, it's going to grow 10% per annum the next 3 years. So that gives you the operating cash flow growth of the business. Now we basically have fixed costs that are ran 900 -- up to somewhere in the $900 million to $1 billion. So call that working capital and call that taxes and interest costs, it's pretty easy going forward to figure out which is Rich, which is going to be very clearly stated in our financials going forward. So that leaves you with the whole enchilada, I called them before spectrum. And going forward, as I think Sheldon mentioned, we want to be a little bit more cautious on spectrum and put into our projections because we're committing to equity free cash flow targets, basically twice the spectrum that we've been spending in the past. And that's because we've got some renewals in Colombia, and we just want to be very cautious. We're basically saying, instead of the $80 million that we were spending, we're going to be spending twice that or 2.5% of revenue, as Sheldon said, which is basically 150. So we're putting 450 spectrum in the next 3 years. If you put all of that in to the equation, you will get to $800 million to a $1 billion of equity free cash flow. That's how I do the math. They're knocking kind of math. And the last thing I do on that is I kind of go, well, all right, $800 million to $1 billion. On market cap of less than $3 billion today, and you can throw in the rights offering in there. That's pretty darn good equity free cash flow any way -- any day of the week. Correct. That's the CEO back at the envelope. I'm sure you want to hear the details. So Sheldon, knock it out.

Sheldon Bruha

executive
#42

Okay. Thanks. Look, I would just highlight, I mean, I think part and parcel, you're -- highlighting something that's been a little bit of challenge. Part in process [indiscernible] equity free cash flow. And the way we are this time around is the fact we're going to be reporting in a different way going forward. I tried to -- I mentioned those in my prepared notes, in a much more simple, straightforward way now with Guatemala in there at 100% and with Africa exiting, we'll be able to now report our IFRS numbers, which means we'll be able to report an equity-free cash flow number. It's very clear, very transparent. We're going to be able to track this very closely on how we're doing against this $800 million to $1 billion target that we put out there on a quarterly basis without pages of footnotes and pages of sort of reconciliation tables to IFRS. So I think given this guidance and the way we're giving it, I think will support to really not be able to sort of report you guys in a different way on a going forward basis on financials. Now to bridge you a little bit on the equity free cash flow number that you would have seen, I guess, from a 2021 number in a good context of what we're giving to you for guidance or target here for 2022 to 2024. In 2021, you picked up the $490 million equity-free cash flow on an underlying basis for the group. That includes 100% of Guatemala, of course, but it doesn't include the cost of acquiring 100% of Guatemala, so we're putting in about $1.5 billion of debt in the group as part of that acquisition. There was about $80 million or so of interest expense associated with that. So that's one bridging item. It includes 100% of Honduras and Africa, abrogate doesn't contribute a lot of cash flow to us, but there's a [indiscernible] that we don't know, so we got to back that out of about $30 million. It excludes spectrum payments. So we're commenting today that as part of the equity cash flow guidance that we're giving, we've incorporated $150 million of annual spectrum costs in there. So you need to factor that in there. And there are 2 smaller items as well some additional withholding tax. Now that we own 100% of Guatemala as the cash flows come up. And a few of those -- I'm not going to go through them, but I do want to make that clear. We're talking about after everything here. So just recognize that there are other items in there as well. But on a -- sort of on a like-for-like basis, that $490 million that you deduct all those items I mentioned, is just a low $200 million number. So what we're saying is we're going to take that low $200 million number of equity free cash flow and grow that to $800 million to $1 billion over the next 3 years on a cumulative basis.

Stefan Gauffin

analyst
#43

And I agree that it will be much clearer. And at least I assume that you're at least a bit prudent when you assume $150 million in terms of spectrum payments.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#44

Yes. Listen, we debated internally. It was always very transparent. We debated internally whether to give you a number before spectrum or number after spectrum, and we really wanted to try to give you an idea of how much equity free cash flow the business is really producing. So we figured this, we're just going to make an estimate of what the spectrum cost is going to be prudent, be conservative on in. As Sheldon said, it's price we have been spending. It's 2.5% of our revenues. We're hopeful we'll be conservative, for sure. But we recognize as from renewals coming out. So we'd rather be conservative and surprising on the upside and the other way around. And as you do the math, remember that we don't consolidate -- sorry, we consolidated all of Colombia, but we only pay for 50% of that spectrum spend in Colombia. So that gives us also a little bit of boom there. So as I said, what we're trying to give you is a number that's the whole in [indiscernible], the whole thing. And that's $800 million to $1 billion over the next [ few ] years, which is significantly higher than what we're doing before on a like-for-like basis. We think it's pretty strong message out there to commit to that. As I said, just print it out, put it in your market. We're going to live with that. And I realize that most people will start believing kind of this time next year when we deliver the first year towards $800 million to $1 billion of equity-free control that you can actually go to our financials and find.

Operator

operator
#45

Our next question is going to come from John Hernander at Nordea.

John Hernander

analyst
#46

First, I want to just echo what Mauricio saying, thanks a lot team for the discussions and your patients in trying to increase my understanding in Millicom over the last few years. I look forward to continuing the discussions with you, Sheldon. I have a number of questions, but I'll take the first one and then I get back in line. But first, if we can just turn to Guatemala. And we showed both market penetration being lower on fixed than rest of the countries and also your share of revenues. Maybe if you can shed some light that now when you have sort of full control of the business, what do you see as the opportunity in fixed in Guatemala? And this is a small one there on Guatemala Mobile. I mean, this is a fantastic market. How do you see sort of the regulatory risk in terms of opening up for other players since it's super consolidated. So that was one and a half question, I think. And the last one is on Colombia. And you talk about the growth opportunity. And we know that you've been subscale on the spectrum, et cetera. But how should we see the road map on EBITDA? Now you're investing, so I understand there's going to be some short-term pressure on EBITDA. But that market lags a little bit. So more sort of longer term, what is the ambition, a reasonable assumption that Colombia can do in terms of margin versus the rest of the group?

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#47

Are you sure that's enough? But you know the business is really, really well. So Guatemala. This is a good 2-player market in which both operators have sufficient scale, drive good margins and have the ability to, as a result of that, continue to invest in the economy and in the networks and in the digitalization of the country. As a result of that, you don't have any regulatory pressure saying when we're going in digitization is not where we want to be. And we have President [indiscernible] basically welcoming the way the country is going in terms of investment in telecommunications. So we're confident that we will remain in a very, very investment-friendly economy in Guatemala. It's also one which, as I said, players, both of them are heavily investing as a result of what I want to keep that a well-invested healthy marketplace. Now where we see growth opportunity in Guatemala. It's of course in continuing to do more of the same well. Stefan alluded to efficiencies. And yes, we can work closer with the Guatemala team on certain procurement and other capabilities. But we also see tremendous opportunity on cable, John, hardly work in Guatemala covers about 1.5 million homes give or take. This is a country of 18 million people. So roughly somewhere between 4 million, 5 million houses. So we expect that we will have room to grow in cable in Guatemala. Just like we did in Bolivia, and we see in [indiscernible], continue in Colombia. And where we see tremendous opportunities, we failed this to say this is in Tigo Money, Guatemala. We've launched Tigo Money Guatemala but barely saw -- so Pablo and the team and under 100% ownership will be a lot easier to really go deep on Tigo money in Guatemala. And with the strength of our network, and the capillarity of our distribution network, Tigo Money can do a lot of good for the economy and for the business in Guatemala. Esteban, I don't know if you want to add anything, don't feel like you need to, but if I've missed something really good on Guatemala, please go ahead or [indiscernible].

Esteban Iriarte

executive
#48

No, I think that you covered very well, but going to the John's question in terms of the opportunity to roll out more fixed business there. The other opportunity that I want to highlight in the fixed business is that the actual penetration under our network is around 35%. And we clearly see an opportunity to reach a 50% penetration in the next years. So we have both, I would say, the COVID [indiscernible] anticipated [ his ] answer, but additionally, to increase our penetration. With a very stable, if you go through the last 5, 10 years, the consolidation of the market, it really help us to maintain our ARPU and to reduce the churn. So it's a very optimistic view in terms of opportunity.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#49

Now moving to the Colombia margins. And I'm glad the question on margin comes after we've been able to be very clear on our long-term strategy in Colombia, and how much [ Selo ] explain what we've been doing strategically with the business there. So you can think of the margins in Colombia going through 3 stages. First was the invest in the network, invest in the customer, invest in the distribution, crucial distribution and investing service layers. And that meant that we went down on margins. We pressured that down. EBITDA margins and OCF margins went down for the last 2-plus years in Colombia, as we were investing. Last quarter, we said the second stage of that is about to become, which means from here on, we see an inflection going on, meaning the margins now start to improve going forward. And as you saw last Friday on the Q4 call, where Colombia has started to inflect both on EBITDA margins and operating cash flow margins. And those margins and the absolute numbers, by the way, are beginning to grow. We'll manage for the next couple of years, perhaps, John, and the timing here was not perfect. We'll manage getting scale with improvements in our margins. Our goal, our target is to come out of this Colombia strategic push with scale because that is what drives the long-term margins of the business, both EBITDA and OCF for the long term. You know that we could produce -- I could ask Marcelo to produce phenomenal EBITDA margins tomorrow. Phenomenal operating cash flow margins tomorrow because most of the investment is behind us. But what we need for margins to be healthy and strong is for the next 2 years to really focus on scale so that we can, therefore, have a business that will scale and drive long-term high sustainable margins, I could do everywhere else in our operations. That is the honest answer. That is what the financial targets are behind it.

John Hernander

analyst
#50

I was just thinking about next year...

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#51

We'll back you up for next year, so.

John Hernander

analyst
#52

Yes, I will back you up. But I'm just thinking about in terms of the -- if you put it in relationship because it's quite big gap, if you compare with other market partners. But if I hear you, it sounds like you have a confidence at least it should be able to more longer term reach group average or something like that? Is that how we should see sort of ambition level? I'm not seeing as a target, but to understand how much the scale has been hurt by your [indiscernible], for example, in mobile.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#53

I can say this now. We had a really, really strategically handicapped business in Colombia just 3 years ago. There's no way, no way you could ever have the prospect or decent margins, return on capital without both low and high frequency margins, just impossible. So we've done what we needed to do, which is we went out and bought the spectrum, we've built the network, and we're getting the subscriber base. And on top of that, we're building this fiber cable network that gives us convergence in WiFi offload opportunities on in the future. So when I look at ourselves in Colombia, this is what we're so behind Marcelo has been doing because we're connected in what we're doing. We're driving the right decisions to be the long-term #2 player in Colombia. In a nutshell, that's what we're doing. And whereas I know investors have believed in us for the last couple of years, we can now begin to say that we're delivering the goods in Colombia. Good are Marcelo by the way. You still have a very tough budget next year. You just -- we need better margins.

John Hernander

analyst
#54

Yes. I didn't want to mention the budget, but now that you mentioned, yes, it's to grow on EBITDA and keep pushing the market, yes.

Operator

operator
#55

I just want to remind everybody who's listening that if you would like to ask a question, please email us at [email protected], and we'll add you to the queue. Our next question right now is going to come from Sergey at Gabelli.

Sergey Dluzhevskiy

analyst
#56

My first question is around potential monetization opportunities and bringing in partners at Tigo Money and infrastructure asset level. Could you elaborate on what types of partners you're looking for? It looks like you're primarily looking for financial partners, but is there a benefit, particularly with Tigo Money to bring maybe a strategic partner as well. And longer term...

Unknown Executive

executive
#57

[indiscernible]

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#58

Susy, can you put on mute? Susy? Sorry, Sergey, go back.

Sergey Dluzhevskiy

analyst
#59

And longer term, what are your thoughts on potentially listing one or both of these businesses on an exchange in the U.S. or in Latin America?

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#60

That's a great question and thank you because it allows us to clarify what's in our heads, right? And things kind of, obviously, I think you can change, and it has over the last few months, but we have consulted with all our investment banks and with all our private equity [ brands ] with just about everyone in the industry or the right way to do -- [indiscernible] this is, is we're convinced that with Tigo Money, the right move for us is to invite -- someone can provide growth capital for the business. We do want our capital to go into the business and help it grow. But [indiscernible] also brings fintech connections and expertise. So think of the kinds of groups that have been investing in fintech in Latin America at oncoming private business with growth capital, separate management incentive plans and a little bit of expertise and allow us, as Millicom, to capture the part side of the economic opportunity for us and for our investors, while that business maximizes its potential. And they, too, can provide the growth capital that the business needs. That's our thinking. And the last bit of that will be, all right, once we've gone through that phase, I'm sure that will open up other strategic opportunities. Don't know what those will be. Could be IPOs, could be a strategic sale. It could be something else. But we will have taken the first step in the most savvy way by bringing growth capital independent management, focus on preserving the equity value and enhancing the strategic opportunity. In [indiscernible] identical to us, I'm not going to repeat, with the difference that perhaps that initial investor can be more the private equity type of investor, the financial investor that enjoys investing in our businesses. This tower business will be, as [ Xavier ] said, big, but it will also have a ton of growth, not only because of the towers were building, but also because of the efficiencies and tenancy that it could achieve by, and are bringing in new tenants, whether it's consolidation with the other MNOs or simply just a typical new tenancy opportunities that are independent or half that we're not focused on today. That's a long and short, Sergey.

Sergey Dluzhevskiy

analyst
#61

And my second question, kind of a broad question on M&A. Could you comment a little bit on your thoughts on kind of M&A -- broad M&A landscape in the region and how you see it unfolding over the next few years. And also as it relates specifically to Millicom, what role do you expect to play in that landscape considering your priorities for organic growth and deleverage?

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#62

We've done the M&A that we talked to our Board about and we thought was strategic to do. That M&A was enhancing and strengthening our positions in [indiscernible], getting out of Africa and owning 100% of Guatemala. And by the way, that's $5 billion of M&A into Guatemala and about $1 billion out of Africa. So we're good. We need to take a rest from the M&A. The focus going forward is on, as we've said, loud and clear deleveraging and starting shareholder remuneration in 2023. Crystal focus, operational focus, no M&A that we're proactively seeking.

Operator

operator
#63

Our next question will come from Johan Sunden from Carnegie.

Johan Sundén

analyst
#64

One follow-up question on the tower carve-out. And given that a great proportion of your portfolio is related to a 2-player market, Guatemala. Is there any -- I guess, it's tougher also to improve the tenancy ratio in the 2-player market, but is the -- but is there a fact that a greater portion of your portfolio related to 2 playing market is holding back the value creation potential of your tower company carve out? Or is that anything to take into account?

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#65

So let me start with a little bit of that, and then I'll hand it over to Xavier, who's got just as a PhD on this on towers. The short answer is, of course, these are not 4-player markets with only 1 tower, which tenancies can go to 2.5 or 3x. But despite that, there is tremendous amount of growth opportunity from new towers that we need to build ourselves but also from increasing the tenancy ratios from other operators, but also from other sources that are not tower operators. And it's much more than you would imagine. And Xavier can give you a lot of examples on how this can happen because we've done it before elsewhere. Xavier?

Xavier Rocoplan

executive
#66

Yes. No, I think it's a fair comment. There are different markets in nature [ when ] the 2 players market. But -- remember that there are at least 4 levers that we can use. I mean first is steep consolidation potential on the towers. Remember that it's a topic that was really overlooked by the industry in these markets, and we are more active in that space. There is growth coming up, as Mauricio mentioned, it's not that we're going to stand still. Also, a lot of other smaller players remember for tenancies, it's not only the MNOs. So there's a lot of -- there's demand there that we have not been paying too much attention to, because not our main business. And finally, I think there is an efficiency play, still matters in the telco business. So we can leverage that across markets and within markets by operating differently essentially. So I think these are very -- I mean these forever are quite powerful, actually.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#67

So when you think about it, and Xavier reminds me of this all the time because we've been a driving force in this, Xavier. We don't wake up every day at Millicom to drive tenancy ratios because effectively, we just provide ourselves a service. But these towers could benefit from exactly that kind of operational management. Just simply going out and gaining radio companies to sit on our towers or other type of small cell operators that could sit on our towers as well, as well as talking to the other M&As and saying, okay, why don't we call it more rational and do this together? So independent management and greater focus will come from this being a separate business on top of the growth that we'll provide to it. And lastly, we think, given the amount of growth that we see at our portfolio, and it's better to use growth capital from the outside than our own capital expenditure for this business going forward. And I hope that is also a very, very important piece of the equation for Millicom. It's not just about unlocking and crystallizing value, it's also about releasing some of our cash flow from the constraints that otherwise will have going forward.

Johan Sundén

analyst
#68

So at least from your answer that almost 50% of the business is from a 2-play market wouldn't be a deal breaker for a strategic buyer to look into our tower business at least.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#69

We don't think so. I have plenty of conversations with plenty of interested parties understand that this simply goes down to, okay, where can we go from one. That's a conversation, from one tenancy. How far can you push it? And that's a conversation.

Operator

operator
#70

Our next question will come from Mathieu at Barclays.

Mathieu Robilliard

analyst
#71

I had 2 questions, if I may. The first one on Colombia, where you highlighted your ambitions to gain market share now that you have better tools to compete. My question really is one of the competitors in this market as showed in other markets that it can react strongly to market share losses. So I was wondering what kind of competitive outlook you were factoring in? And where do you think you can gain most of the market shares? Is it because you offer more value and can gain on volumes? Or is it because you can move up in terms of market segments and, hence, your ARPU grow faster than market trends? That was my first question.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#72

All right. So let me have a crack out of it in, [ Selo ] and Marcelo can pile on that.

Unknown Executive

executive
#73

I think I will start -- I will just put the title, Marcelo, you can complement me much well. During [indiscernible] was last week with the team in Colombia, reviewing the plants and everything. We are very focused and gained scale through the volume as we were doing first. At the same time that we try to protect our ARPU. But going forward, clearly, as soon as we get the scale that we were looking for all these years, we see a market going up in terms of [ fire ]. But Marcelo, maybe you can go into the details here.

Marcelo Benitez

executive
#74

Yes. In the fixed business, as [ Steven ] mentioned, ARPU has been steady in 14, 15 last quarter. We've gained 1 point of market share last year, and we still have room to grow as the broadband penetration in Colombia is near 50%. In the mobile business, it's been a little bit of a reshuffle in the market with a new entrant. Having said that, through volume, we were able to capture the service revenue growing at 6% last year and our market share in near [ 3 points ]. So increasing our capillarity with the expansion of our mobile network we were able to capture this opportunity in the market at the expense of the other ones, we are now near 20%. So there's still a lot of room to grow in broadband and also in mobile.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#75

Perhaps the way to look at this, Mathieu, is -- and I realize, and I'm [indiscernible] clean cut here. The price disruption has already happened. It happens on day 1, I say, a year ago, Marcelo, you can correct me a little bit more of a year ago.

Marcelo Benitez

executive
#76

April last year.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#77

Yes, we matched it day 1 because we had bought the spectrum, build a network and increased, as I was reporting to John, our commercial and service layer capabilities to be ready for that because we expected that prices would be dropped by the new entrant, and we saw an opportunity to basically drive volume, as I explained earlier. So that big price disruption has already happened. What has happened seems is that our gains in volume have more than offset the losses in price. And that's because, as I said back then, we're not being competent with what we had back there, 15%, 16%, 17% mobile market share, we're still to gain more from volume that we need from price losses. And that's the game we play. And as I said earlier, in that game in which we are the simple game of only more than our existing market share of the net gain. We will, over time, basically creep up as we have for the last year, our market share position. It is no longer the business in which we have disadvantages. We've removed them all. They have Spectrum disadvantage, removed. We had a network coverage disadvantage, removed. We had a commercial distribution disadvantage, removed. We didn't have a fixed level. We now have a fixed network that we can play convergence on. So we stand in complete parity vis-a-vis the market, there is nothing holding us back. And as a result of that, in a market in which prices have already been diluted down and cannot be diluted much, much further. We're gaining on scale and just doing the math of gaining share of net gain that is consistent with the market position will drive our market position north in terms of market share from where we are today.

Marcelo Benitez

executive
#78

There is 1 point addition of Mauricio to mention on the ARPU of mobile is that we are seeing a reconversion from prepaid to postpaid in the market. We were in the 80% prepaid and 20% postpaid the last 5 years. Last year, it moved 2.5 points on postpaid. So there is a post [indiscernible] of the market, if I can say that. And that certainly re-converge the ARPU. So we will see in the mid-, long term, our reconversion from the prepaid base is to the postpaid base that can certainly help to sustain a little bit of the ARPU in the total market in Colombia also.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#79

And you saw that in Q4, Mathieu, we basically added almost 1 million of postpaid subject Colombia last year. [indiscernible]

Mathieu Robilliard

analyst
#80

That makes sense. A second question maybe. Just one on the free cash flow guidance, which I think you made a very good job at explaining the moving pieces. Just curious as if you monetize some of the stakes in the tower asset or in Tigo Money, could that have any impact at all on the guidance, so it's a bit unfair and too early to discuss that?

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#81

Yes. As you can imagine, we don't put M&A into that because it becomes a possible why you did you put, right? But I want to give you a little bit more color on that, largely on our thinking. And I want to set the stage properly. The bringing in of investors into Tigo Money and into Infra is to provide those businesses with the growth capital that they need, the independence that they need and the expertise that they need to grow. We're not doing them in and of themselves as a deleveraging volume for us. That's a really good place to be. The mindset is making the maximization of the value we can create in those businesses by attracting growth capital. So we're effectively thinking about primary transactions or secondary transactions. If they happen, they happen. But as you can imagine, Mathieu, to the extent that these are businesses that we're investing in for Tigo Money and building more towers. And of course, to the extent that the growth capital can come in from a third party to make those businesses grow and the demands on our own business in terms of our capital would be lessened. So there is a positive effect in that sense. None of which is baked into the numbers we gave you, right? Because that's M&A. We don't know the sizes, the valuations, et cetera, et cetera. You want to explain that correct and [indiscernible] .

Sheldon Bruha

executive
#82

I think I can [indiscernible], I mean, this is really, I think, an extension of our capital allocation and how we think about that, finding other capital here to invest in, in great attractive businesses but aren't core to what we're doing. So we can keep focus with our own capital on our core business activities.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#83

From a financial point of view, of course, the growth capital in this business is need should be put in not at our depressed multiples but a better multiple, right? So from a capital allocation point of view, what Sheldon's saying, that actually makes sense. Let's use someone else's capital [indiscernible] multiples to do that rather than our own capital.

Operator

operator
#84

Next question is going to come from John Hernander at Nordea.

John Hernander

analyst
#85

I have a short follow-up on the lines below EBITDA. And that's -- I mean, you've been working intensely with your debt, redeeming bonds, et cetera, and you place the green bond here in Stockholm, which I think was at a lower interest rate than your average, but now you're taking Guatemala, et cetera. So can you give any sort of guidance on what we should expect in interest rate payment for 2022 and also on the taxes, which is always difficult for an outsider to really forecast and I understand that would be really helpful.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#86

I'm going to take a pass on this one to Sheldon, because they're still [indiscernible] . Let's see if you get consistent answers.

Sheldon Bruha

executive
#87

I can try to answer this for you. But we haven't given too much sort of specifics around 2022 in a lot of our guidance this time around, particularly given the context of what we're doing with the upcoming rights issue. But resources kind of laying out some of the bigger numbers around some of our fixed costs. In terms of interest expense, it's a bit over -- just a little bit over $400 million a year kind of on a pro forma basis with the financings that we're doing with regard to the financing of the acquisition of the minority stake in Guatemala. And that's on an underlying basis -- I'm sorry, not on a new perimeter basis. So just over $400 million of interest. We would expect that to come down over time as we delever. On taxes, it's a bit less than $300 million of taxes, more in the area of $250 million. Once again, in the same perimeter, and that's something we would kind of expect to increase over time as we increase profitability and drive the business forward around the growth targets we've provided.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#88

So on my [ nastiest ] kind of, math, [indiscernible] I was alluding to it basically. And here's something that would change going forward. The team knows and Sheldon knows because I asked him to focus on this, how we've guided to equity free cash flow, which effectively means that from here on every month, I'm going to be choosing those numbers like there's no borrower on them, right? Because now every single [indiscernible] item, we get tested on. We've raised the bar here, it comes down to the true cash flow, no more hiding behind the fact that things are unconsolidated, nobody can reconcile them. They don't show up in IFRS, et cetera, et cetera. From here on, it's Chris. Every month is going to be changing those numbers, and they better be delivered because I just committed to them.

Operator

operator
#89

Our next question will come from Bill Miller.

William Miller

analyst
#90

Well, Tim, this can not be the last time we see you because I would make it all too final and sad. So we're not going to allow that to happen, for sure. But looking at the bigger picture of where the fintech could get you and where the tower business could get you an imputed values as you spin them off, they would appear to be much higher than your current market value. Is that anywhere close to being true?

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#91

I think Tim's going to answer that.

Timothy Pennington

executive
#92

Yes. Well, I have now this -- I've done 30 of these. So I think I'll do a rest, and I think Sheldon is a perfect person to take it forward. Look, I think [ we aren't going to ] clearly details on view on valuation on a call like this. But clearly, the -- Mauricio has just made the point about attracting capital into these businesses that sort of reflects the multiple of those businesses and doesn't reflect the multiple of the business that we're sitting on. So absolutely, we believe there is hidden value in there. That's how we described it. Now between today and unlocking that hidden value, we need to caution that there is work to be done. And there's -- whatever we say, 12, 24 months' period. But I think you'll certainly on something there, Bill.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#93

Let me help Tim out here a little bit, because I can hide...

Unknown Executive

executive
#94

Tim is always too conservative. We know that. Sheldon, I hope you turn over a new leash.

Sheldon Bruha

executive
#95

I'll keep in my view...

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#96

[indiscernible]

Sheldon Bruha

executive
#97

I'll keep in my view because it underpins everything we're doing here. So we've all know -- and this is now a Millicom comment, that's a San Harbor, legal. Once a lawyer, always a lawyer. Telecom valuations are at historical low levels. Emerging market valuations are historical low levels. Those are general covenants, and we get caught up in that. So when I look at the way the market sees today, Millicom, we're probably not being rewarded for the fact that in our telco type multiples, our telco type valuations, what you really have is a $2 billion [ enabled ] fiber asset. That's 40% of our revenues that grows around 10% on a yearly basis. That's a cable fiber asset right there. What we also get within our share price today, an infra acid that is large [indiscernible] has tremendous growth opportunities and kind of track capital. That's a different kind of [indiscernible] that you get within the Millicom envelope today. And you also get the fintech business for [indiscernible] concerns is already big and has tremendous potential. So what we're trying to do, and I said it really bluntly is make sure that value gets unlocked by basically making these structural organizations that will highlight what that value is. It will attract the capital growth that they need to use full potential. So what we're explicitly saying is there's a lot more value in really that I think today we're being rewarded.

Unknown Executive

executive
#98

I think that's critical for doing all this, but also, it would mean that the 2.6 or 8 or whatever value that they have today is going to look minute, if you can succeed in your prospects for these 2 entities. That's why I think the key to this is for Millicom to retain the economic upside in themes that independently with someone else's capital [ coming ] grow to their maximum potential. And that's what [indiscernible] this way.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#99

Couldn't agree more. So the question is how soon when you're trying to monetize and carve it out.

Unknown Executive

executive
#100

Every single investing market told me do not commit to [indiscernible], you will be held. So we kind of said 18 to 24 [indiscernible], we're going to get it done within that time frame. Did you hear that, Pablo, did you hear that, Xavier? No pressure.

Pablo Guardia

executive
#101

And why not sooner? We've been working at it for a while.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#102

I'd like to keep some maneuverability. It's in the system.

William Miller

analyst
#103

Could you describe a little more fully why in Colombia, for instance, is the cable percentage which you may have in Colombia. And the cap capital that you spent in Colombia. Why the margins are better than they earn now because without anything else happening, it seems to me a big deal.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#104

So we're not focused in the short term in improving our margins in Colombia. The strategically sound thing to do is to manage the balancing act between capturing the ability to grow our scale in Colombia, and a new [indiscernible] bigger scale down the road long term because once you have that scale, then the margins will not only come, but they would be sustainable. And I realize that for those who are sure TAM oriented, this is not the answer that they want to hear, but it is definitely the right answer from my long-term value creation point of view.

William Miller

analyst
#105

Okay. Maybe. But it seems to me that maybe you should think about the margins sooner than that given the valuation of your stock. And...

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#106

So let me just be clear. Our margins in Colombia are improving. They started to improve in Q4, and they will continue to improve and they will, therefore, allow the rest of the group to show our continued path to margin improvement. When I started in Millicom, I said the business was going to get operating cash flow margins, operating cash flow, including capital expenditures of somewhere between 20% to 25%. I remember that, right?

William Miller

analyst
#107

Certainly.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#108

We are at 23% today, even after investing in Colombia. So we could not be more focused on margins. But in Colombia, we need to balance investing for the future with not driving the margins up too soon. Timing matters in Colombia. From here on, they start growing positive, but we're going to manage so that we get all the scale that we can in Colombia going forward.

Operator

operator
#109

And Phil, we do have some chats that have come in on the side here, but unfortunately, I think we only have time for one last question, which will be from Stefan Billing from Kepler.

Stefan Billing

analyst
#110

I actually have 2 questions. One is very quick, but if we start with Guatemala, I just want to go back there because you have showed that the fixed broadband penetration is very low in that market. And I understand that there are some special difficulties in Guatemala that prevents you from expanding the network as fast as you might have wanted because of the criminality. Maybe you can elaborate a little bit about that and what needs to be done to get going with that rollout in a higher pace?

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#111

Yes. [indiscernible], Stefan, and thank you for bringing it up. So 2 things on Guatemala. Number one, as the country continues to improve economically, young population and social economic growth of the middle class provides us with basically new broadband demand. And that happens within the existing territory and basically comes in the form of household formation. So second to that, there are areas in which we're increasingly going in carefully, but beginning to realize that, yes, we can actually really build a network there. Typically do it with wireless technology. And once we see the broadband peak out and we can indeed put in the broadband teams, then we get a little bit more bold and go build the network. So we've been testing that for the last couple of years. And as a result of that, we see a more evolved ambition towards building a little bit more in Guatemala. Those are the 2 things that drive our ambition cable in Guatemala. And the last is economic growth will bring more stability to Guatemala. I'm a great believer in that. You saw the numbers and that will, over time, allow us to think of Guatemala in its full potential in terms of the homes you can built. That's longer term goal, Stefan.

Stefan Billing

analyst
#112

Yes. Got it. A very quick question on the spectrum side. If you can share any knowledge about any upcoming spectrum auctions in the near term that could be of interest to know about and also the 5G spectrum that you are still missing. You show that you have a good portion already. Are they supposed to come through auctions? Or are they basically trades across operators? Or how will it look?

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#113

Sure. So on spectrum, Xavier and the team have done a phenomenal job over the last 5 years in basically making sure we have the spectrum position that we want. And today, we basically hold more than 90 megahertz of both low frequency and high frequency in every market. So we're very happy at that point of the launch that finally our spectrum position's going forward. On 5G, you saw that we hold a ton of 5G spectrum in 5 of our markets, including Guatemala and Panama and [indiscernible]. We've got a ton of 5G spectrum there, the 3.5 spectrum as a matter of 5G. So we went loaded on 5G spectrum. There are no publicly announced in the world 5G auctions in any of our markets today. That doesn't mean that they cannot count -- they won't count in the years to come. But those usually take time to give -- pull into reality. And most of our markets and the regulators to a large extent, realize that the job in 4G remains undone, and some of them are actually saying it publicly now, realizing that 5G something that is not quite what is needed in our markets. 4G penetration and go and those that remain connected remain unconnected because the new access 4G. So there is no overwhelming cry for 5G from the population, from businesses and less so even from regulators in our markets, but you have seen the U.S. or Europe. Having said all that, we've been investing in 5G, both in spectrum, in the core network and even on the RAN network. So that when the time comes, we can lead on 5G as a spectrum. We've got the fiber. We got the ramp, 50% of it, 45 already 5G and all the cores are either upgraded or being upgraded to 5G. So we can be leaders in 5G when the moment comes and not have, as I described, a 5G CapEx surprise for you who we'll be preparing for that. And on the spectrum conversation, as I said earlier, what we're trying to do is make sure that we provide ourselves with a spectrum envelope that gives us plenty of growth to do their renewals and the tactical acquisitions that we need to do over the 3 years that have come ahead of us without coming to you with something that's surprising or unreal. And as a result of that, we said with the group, let's just have a bigger bucket, two times that we spent in the past. Even though the likelihood is and a lot of that will actually come from Colombia, which we don't own 50% growth. So that gives you an idea that we're trying to be very careful and very methodic on the spectrum envelope that goes before the equity free cash flow, big numbers that we've committed to today. Long and short.

Operator

operator
#114

I don't know if you want to have some closing words, Mauricio.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#115

Well, either printed or save it somewhere in your hard drive, whatever makes you feel more economically conscious and climate oriented. What we've given you today broadly with committed with Sangre Tigo what we aim to do operationally, financially and on ESG for the next 3 years to do. And we have, because of the things we've done, the ability to show you that and show you that money every quarter. So all the stores support us in getting it done and continue providing us with the support and the capital that makes our economies develop the way they need going forward because it is going to be in this virtuous investment cycle that gets all that done. And thank you for your support and your patience today. And thank you for all the questions. We're going to go get it done now.

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