Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

September 13, 2022

NASDAQ US Communication Services Wireless Telecommunication Services conference_presentation 44 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Diego Aragão

analyst
#1

Yes. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. My name is Diego Aragão, I'm Head of LatAm TMT team at Goldman Sachs. Glad to have Mauricio Ramos CEO of Millicom, here with us today for this session. Thank you, Mauricio. Thank you for joining us.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#2

And thank you for having me Yes, pleasure to be here.

Diego Aragão

analyst
#3

Yes. Here we go. I guess, look, there are like a few topics that I would like to cover today. But why don't you start providing maybe just like a very short overview of the story on the company and the momentum and again, we can start for them.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#4

Yes. So we're very happy to be in this space that we are with the ability to provide broadband connectivity, fixed and mobile to a region that continues to demand it and will continue to demand it in the long term. As you've heard me say a number of times, our story is one of giving our customers, both fixed and mobile, the broad connectivity that they want. And our broadband mentation in the region, both in fixed and mobile are still very low. So happy to do that. We operate, as you know, in 9 countries across the region, in Latin America, smaller and medium sizes where we can drive great market share positions and use those to provide with our investors great return. The first half of the year was one in which-- I hope this is better. So we had a phenomenal start to the year and the first half of this year was slightly ahead of what we had budgeted. So we came in with a very, very strong momentum. And as I said during Q2, the second half of the year obviously has had some of those macro headwinds that the entire world is experiencing. We've seen some of those in a region. So there's been some slowdown that we expect will weigh on the second half of the year, but it doesn't stop us from continuing to believe in the long-term business and perspective that we have driving broad penetration in the region. I hope that's enough of a context for this conversation.

Diego Aragão

analyst
#5

Yes, it is. And I guess the idea is to go maybe on a country-by-country basis. Of course, Guatemala, I think it's the first topic in here because, first, you just buy out right, your partners in there. So I guess the first question is how much room do you see for this business to accelerate and to change now that you own 100% of it?

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#6

So as you know, over the last 3 years of so, we've reshuffled the company's portfolio quite significantly. We sold out of all our 6 country positions in Africa and our tower company position in Africa. And we've used that and additional capital, both debt and equity to redeploy it into Latin America. When you put all of that combined, we've deployed about $5 billion, give or take, of capital into Latin America. And the common threat of that is we deployed it in markets that have 2 key characteristics. One is they are very stable, both economically from an FX point of view, and Guatemala is probably the most stable country that I've come across in the last 20 years. And the second country is Panama, which is a dollar economy. And the second thing that they both have in common and it can talk about Panama in a minute is they have very good market structures. And to your point, in Guatemala, that's precisely it. In Guatemala, the quetzal is one of the most stable FX around the world. It has remained stable throughout every crisis and has remained stable through this crisis, in particular. It is a great industry structure. There's only 2 players. That market consolidated into 2 about 3 years ago. And we have a phenomenal market position in a business in Guatemala with phenomenal margins. Now going forward, we expect Guatemala to continue to do that one thing, which is give us continued cash flow. Short term, you do know that during the pandemic. -- we took quite a bit of market share on our main competitor today. So as we speak here today, they're trying to gain some of that back. That will, as I've always said, create a quarter or 2 in which there's some finding of a new equilibrium. But long term, it's a very stable 2-player market. The developments on that market, we launched 5G, not a hiccup. Our competitors launched 5G, not a hiccup in terms of the marketplace, check that box, done, not a meaningful significant increase in CapEx, that has always been said. And the upside for us in Guatemala remains as it always was, drive cash flow, and we will continue to become more and more efficient in Guatemala to drive that cash flow. We have a very long efficiency project already kicking off, not just in Guatemala, but everywhere in the region, and that will include a lot of that. And there's also a lot of upside for us in home, B2B in Guatemala and Tigo Money which I'm sure will talk about that. So steady as she goes and with upside in the businesses that are underdeveloped for the size of our Guatemala operation, and those are on B2B and Tigo Money.

Diego Aragão

analyst
#7

That makes a lot of sense. And I guess just maybe a final question regarding Guatemala, Mauricio, the country will be holding general elections right next year. So is there anything in there that we should be aware in terms of either candidate A and B and how this could eventually impact the industry and your business in that market?

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#8

That's not one that we're spending a lot of time worried about. I have now seen 3 presidential elections in Guatemala in my tenure as CEO of Millicom. All of them have been organized democratic transitions. We will be with the Financial Times, hosting President Giammattei in New York in a session on investing in Guatemala. And that will be a further sign of how stable that country has become not just economically. I mean, the quetzal a very strong currency for the last 20 years, but also politically, we're expecting a democratic, no issues, no to telenovela democratic transition when that comes about.

Diego Aragão

analyst
#9

Perfect. And I guess shifting gears here, Panama. Of course, it's a great market for you. You promoted this integration of Telefonica and Cable Onda in that market. Now Liberty is in the process of integrating Claro and is to have like a kind of a third player in a very weak position, right? Which is used to sell. Digital has recently stated that they can eventually exit the market because competition will become harder for them. So what can you tell us in terms of the prospects for Panama, especially as we enter the market, we move from a 4-player market structure to a 2-player market structure, right?

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#10

So when I think about Panama, I think of when you do acquisitions, you have a thesis, and you expect that to play over time. And more often than not, it doesn't come through just quite as you expected. In the case of Panama, everything that we thought would happen and drove our investment thesis has been happening and check the box. So we like Panama from the very beginning, the dollar economy, highest grower in the region now consistently in terms of GDP growth, and it's got that anchor, which continues to grow and be enhanced, Canal Panama but it's also a very open economy. So we like the macro, but our investment thesis went beyond the stability of the dollar. Our investment thesis was that we could go into fixed. There would be an opportunity in mobile. And later on, the market would consolidate because we thought out of the 4 players that were 2 that were not long-term players in the market. All of those things have checked as we speak. I'll tell you a little anecdote. When we did the first deal, the Cable Onda deal, which gave us basically nationwide position in cable with a very good plan and high customer market shares, we negotiated in there with our partners, what we call the Telefonica acquisition close. It was actually down the Telefonica clause so that there was an agreement that when the Telefonica as came into play, which at the time we didn't know, we would know how to pre-agreed with them. And that happened sooner than we expected. It happened within 6 months or check that box. That acquisition -- the Telefonica acquisition was predicated on cross-selling because our high market share on cable allowed us then to cross-sell to that mobile subscriber base, which at the time had just around shy of 30%. And that began happening. We've integrated, as you know, the brands. We integrated Telefonica, Cable Onda in to Tigo. We are today the largest telecom player in Panama, we weren't there 3 years ago. Our NPS scores are high. We bought spectrum. We've upgraded the network, modernize the network, and Panama has become this just amazing cash flow producer for us in dollar terms. And the couple of last bits of that are indeed that we always expect that the industry -- the mobile industry to consolidate further. And we knew and when we started the M&A process, there would be national consensus to facilitate that because a lot has already been passed that allowed that consolidation to happen. So as we speak, indeed, 2 of the smaller players have made decisions to enter -- sorry, to leave the market. One of them sold to our competitors, and that process has been approved. And although there are still 2 brands on the marketplace and the integration, I think, will take them still less than a year. The consolidation is coming. And the fourth player has thrown in the towel, I guess, it's as good as a word as anything. So the government is managing that asset. But quite clearly, it's a market that is strong and small, but it's consolidating, and that's a good position. It's just amazing that we've been able to create this position in 3 years from nowhere to #1 in a 2-player dollar economy business in Panama.

Diego Aragão

analyst
#11

Indeed. And I guess the question we've been getting from investors is a scenario where DGCL decides to fully exit the market. Theoretically speaking, the regulatory -- the regulation in there does not allow the market to move from 3 to 2, right? But would you be interesting then to be buying those assets or?

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#12

So the asset is now run by the government. We're not in a significantly positive mood towards deploying that kind of capital in that manner in Panama. So my expectation is that this will be a situation in which we'll need to be very attune and he will sort itself out over the next couple of years.

Diego Aragão

analyst
#13

Yes. No, that makes sense. I guess changing topics here, Colombia. This has been a very competitive market for you, right? For a couple of different reasons. So the first question is how do you see the current competitive landscape in there? There were like some changes recently, right? After Telefonica sign up this agreement with KKR, but you also signed up agreements with ETB and Unified in this market. So I guess what can you tell us about the market structure, year ago and how do you see this progress in the coming, let's say, 2 to 4 years?

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#14

You may know this, but there's a saying in Spanish and [Foreign Language]. So in a house of a black man family tends to use wood spoons. And I say that because it's a way of saying that, of course, it needs to be the most complex market for us because it happened to be Colombian. So it serves me right. We've improved our position in Colombia to the point where I'm extremely positive that this will become a market that will earn its cost of capital for us and will be one of our key markets. And I'll tell you why my optimism is, I think, well grounded in long term. So look at mobile. 3 years ago, give or take, we were extremely handicapped in Colombia. The only company with no low-frequency spectrum. And as a result of that, we were unable to compete in that market. And we had to do it with low market shares and only have frequency spectrums, which effectively meant we had to put a lot more sites than our competitors. As you look at where we said today, we bought the largest chunk of 700-megahertz spectrum. We're now the largest holder of the 100-megahertz spectrum in Colombia. We quickly set out to build that network. And today, we rank as the #1 network in the region. We built the commercial distribution, and you've seen our numbers over the last few quarters. We are gaining market share and adding subscribers, particularly post-paid. So in a context in which all the focus was on the new entrant and what the new entrant would do in terms of capturing market share, the reality today is that, that new entrant hasn't really captured any meaningful market share. This is particularly available information. They sit today, 18 months after their launch at around 5% or 6% market share. And we have picked up about 300 basis points. So now we've got spectrum. We've got commercial distribution. We got a great network. We've got phenomenal NPS. Customers are liking it, and we're gaining market share. If you look at mobile for us in Colombia, it's growing 20%. Now just cigars don't think I'm dilutional. Of course, during that period, there was a price erosion caused by the new entrant. But if you look at last quarter or so, the price environment in Colombia has started to shift. And for those of you who are looking even closer, our competitor-- that competitor, the new entrant started raising prices a few weeks ago. So there is a recomposition and as I always said, direct composition would see us when it happened, having had picked up some market share. So mobile for us is working in Colombia. Now that's not enough because there's still 4 players in the mobile marketplace in Colombia, right? Telefonica, Claro, ourselves and [ One ]. And 3 of those 4 basically share far less than 50% of the market share. So I do expect that Colombia will go through, and I can't tell you when or how, but it will go through some form of consolidation simply because those 3 players need to find a way to create a better scale. And I do believe that politically, that will make sense for Colombia because rather than 4 going to 3, but the markets you really understand is that, that would go from one very large 2 that are long-term viable. And that is something that I think politically will be understood in Colombia. So the summary is we are making really good progress. Mobile growing 20%. And I do imagine that there has to be an inorganic solution to this. Now don't read into that, that we are going to be deploying additional capital into Colombia. That organic solution -- inorganic solution needs to be one in which there's no further deployment of capital in Colombia, but rather the goal here is a consolidation of the market. And we're happy with fixed. As you know, we've created, we are now, by far, the second largest provider of mobile broadband and pay TV services in Colombia. Our market share is actually quite significant in that space in Colombia and the gap to the #1 player is much smaller than it is in mobile. Telefonica indeed cut a deal to basically, in a sense outsource the upgrade of its fiber to the KKR engine. We've taken what we think is a really interesting route, which is we have cut deals just over the last couple of months. They were announced, I think, about a month ago with both Ufinet and ETB, which have a ton of fiber in Bogota. And combined, they give us access to 1.5 million homes to sell fiber in Bogota. That is an area where we have never had the ability to sell. We simply hadn't. Our own footprint in Bogota, just to give you an idea, Bogota about 30% to 40% of Colombia's GDP. Our own footprint in Bogota covers 11% of the households in Bogota. So really, we've never had access to sell fixed in Bogota. With these deals, ETB and Ufinet, we will be able to sell into Bogota and our effective penetration of the higher economic, socioeconomic strategy on a capital-light model, it's going to be 100%. It is meaningful, this transactions for us. And when you look at the history, 3 years ago, we didn't really have access to sell mobile into Bogota because with high frequencies in Bogota, you can't really penetrate. With low frequencies, we are now selling in Bogota and that's why you see our mobile pickup in post-paid and the revenue growing 20%. So this acts on a capital-light model because we're basically just commercially offloading the CapEx investments to these fibers is very exciting for us. Expect that you will begin to see that maybe fourth quarter, maybe early next year, some commercial traction for us accessing Bogota. So that's a meaningful change for us. It also means that our CapEx investment in Colombia in terms of network in Colombia, just got a little bit lighter, significantly lighter because we don't have to deploy capital again in Bogota. We can do that on a capital-light model, which is -- helps really, really good in these days in which indeed the second half, as I said earlier, it's a little tougher than the first half. So it is very helpful for us to be able to have a more capital-light model on the CapEx, therefore, allowing us to still be very, very focused on reaching those goals for the company that you're very familiar with that 10% operating cash flow growth on average for 3 years and the equity free cash flow of about 100 to $1 billion. Now lastly, on Colombia, and I went Millicom White for a second there, but these deals do help us in that regard. I hope that's clear to everybody because it's a capital-light model. The deals with ETB and Ufinet. In Colombia, our B2B business is growing really, really well. And that's on the back of all the things that we've done to improve our B2B business, which you're very familiar with. We've streamlined the product line, we streamlined the final and commercial distribution, and we've struck deals with big providers. And if you couple that with the data center that we put in Colombia, but also everywhere, you've begun to see that our B2B business is becoming a meaningful driver of growth, not just in Colombia, but in the region.

Diego Aragão

analyst
#15

I guess just maybe one final question regarding Colombia. If we would compare your organic CapEx, right? Relative to this agreement you have with Ufinet and ETB, how does it compare? I mean, in terms of returns, where you can get like the best return over our investments.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#16

It would be a theoretical question because the reality is deploying capital to build a fiber network in Colombia -- in Bogota, which is what we're talking about would be extremely difficult from a practical point of view, but also from a penetration point of view because there are significant competitors there. So what we like about this transaction is that it allows us to do on a success base. The CapEx has already been deployed; the fiber networks exist there. And our commercial agreements are basically CapEx-light and success driven. We'll get the customers that we get. So the return on those for us it's a capital-light model, so very high.

Diego Aragão

analyst
#17

Yes. We've been seeing a lot of those transactions globally. Personally, I think it makes a lot of sense instead of creating all those overlaps, right, that we've been seeing in a couple of countries. It's just better to have like a good partner, right, that you can go with?

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#18

Yes. 3 years ago, we had no ability, no real network to sell mobile into Bogota. Not really any ability to sell fixed into Bogota. Today, we do on both. So forget about Q3 or Q4, long term, it really changes our position to be able to compete organically in Colombia, both of those things combined.

Diego Aragão

analyst
#19

Yes. I fully agree. And maybe getting the chance to speak about the CapEx and the CapEx plan. I guess the first question is on the fixed broadband investment cycle, where are you at this point? How many investments do you need to upgrade the network, some of the most important markets for you, especially in those that you've been seeing a growing competition from either like smaller regional players that have been emerging recently in the region, right?

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#20

So as you know, we have about 12.5 million homes passed throughout the region. Those have a few important characteristics. One negligible copper. We've upgraded all of that copper over the last 6 or 7 years. when I say negligible, I really mean negligible. Number two, the network is very young. So it's really an HFC network that's very young. There's a little noise in it, limited maintenance on it. Very deep in terms of fiber. We put fiber very, very deep. And as a result of that is a network that has a long path of modular capacity and bandwidth expansions. And thirdly, as you know, going forward, we will build largely substantially, if not totally, starting next year, but even this year, 50% of the build is going to be fiber. And the reason for that is that the ecosystem is now favorable to fiber, meaning you can deliver video and have CPEs that allow to you to deliver a good video product over fiber to our communities; and number two, the cost of deploying fiber is in our markets, 20% to 30% lower than it is cable. So we've laid out, I think a very clear and, in our mind, very, very return-oriented deployment of our capital in fixed. And it's a very simple path going forward. So we don't really lose a lot of time or headache over that.

Diego Aragão

analyst
#21

Understood. And I guess just shifting gears here. Financial services have been something that you are, let's say, talking more during the conference call, the opportunity with Tigo Money. So what can you tell us about this initiative? I mean when exactly we should see and expect something, let's say, bigger coming from the Tigo Money initiative.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#22

Yes. So there are 2 things that I'm excited about the second half in the context of a much tougher macro environment. I want to make sure that that's clear. But in that context, there's a couple of things that I am excited about for in the second half. Number one is the progress we're making on fintech, on Tigo Money. And number 2 is the progress we've made into getting deeper into being in the place for soccer in regions, which I think is important. I want to make sure that, that is understood as a strategic move. So on fintech, Tigo Money is beginning to do all the things that we thought you would be able to do as a fintech. Interestingly, both our fintech business and our tower business are actually kind of already pretty big and one of the largest in their corresponding fields in the region. So a $50 million of revenue on a yearly basis, our fintech business, Tigo Money is already one of the largest fintechs in the region. We basically spent a big chunk of this year, getting the team in place, having them revamp all the many platforms that existed into a simple platform that allows us to manage the business out of Panama in a holistic unified way so that we can then, in the second half, start launching some of the key products. So what are those key products? The more digital wallet for their customers, a merchant product, so that Tigo Money can be something that is used not simply as an individual and in consumer, but it's a tool also for the small merchants in our markets. And that then allows the individual consumers also to have a lot of places in which they can use the wallet, allowing us then to become the payment digital mobile platform of choice in our markets. And those of 2 things give us a lot of support from regulators because they see that indeed, we are creating exactly that, a very inclusive digital mobile payment ecosystem which by the way, can access the most remote areas of where it's being launched, Honduras, Guatemala, Panama, et cetera. And we've just started a pilot on nano lending in Paraguay. And of course, I can't -- and I don't want to start giving out small KPIs because those will change over time, et cetera, et cetera. But there's clearly high demand for that product. And we're clearly bridging a need in consumers that have not had access to a small credit. So very excited about Tigo Money and all that it can do. And as you know, we are organizing this second half the business, so that into next year, we can bring in a savvy fintech-type investor to help us grow the business even further.

Diego Aragão

analyst
#23

Yes. That makes a lot of sense. And I guess, in terms of products, I mean, would you consider adding something to the portfolio, for instance, in terms of credit. I think this has been a great bottleneck, right, for people in general in the region. So is this something that you are considering for the Tigo Money providing credit? And if so, would you bring and onboard a partner, some financial institution that can support you? What are you even considering using your own cash to make this business happen.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#24

So the straight up forward answer to that is the short-term goal is to become the digital mobile payment platform of choice. And I've often said that this is almost a blue ocean for us in all of our markets with the perhaps exception of Colombia because there's little in terms of what's being done. And given our distribution, our reach, our customer base, the strength of the brand, the fact that we already have about 5 million Tigo Money users, all of those things combined give us a really good shot at becoming that. That means creating the merchant platforms and the merchant community so that indeed it becomes the digital payment platform of choice. That's the stepping stone. That's the solid foundation upon which you build the rest of a fintech play. And then from there on, the ambition indeed is to enhance that product portfolio and of course, small credits to basically really be unbanked, provides a great opportunity for us. That will come as a second step. So what we're doing now is we're trailing it in Paraguay just to see if it really should be part of the business plan. And quite frankly, today, as we sit here, it definitely needs to be part of the business plan based on the early results. Now that business, just to give you an idea, about 8 out of -- 8 or 9 out of our Tigo Money users had never had a credit or debit or any form of banking relationship. So this is really a new opportunity for us. And the NPS and the churn on those customers are much higher and the churn much lower. The product really drives affinity. And we're seeing very early day that indeed credit -- nano-credit small do the very same thing. We're basically lending to individuals who never had access to any form of credit short term and with very high NPSs. So down the road, yes, the portfolio will be enhanced to make it a true fintech. That is the purpose of making it a separate business, bring in a savvy investor, create -- allow it to be what it can be, reach its maximum potential. And in response to your question, yes, of course, there will be a separate balance sheet, not ours, so that the business can be all that it can be in terms of its opportunity and that we drive the maximum equity out of it that equity value out of it that we possibly can. So the answer is enhanced product portfolio, yes. Someone else's balance sheet, yes. Carved out entity, yes. Of course, all of the things that would allow that business to be all it can be with us, of course, retaining equity upside for our shareholders. And in the long-term play, this is a fintech that can go beyond that. This is the one business that has the opportunity to become a true platform, a true super app once you drive the usage on that product that we think we can drive. I'm going to stop there because I start getting excited. I'm not talking about -- I'm sure there's a lot of people here that want to know about Q3 and Q4, and I'm looking into the future.

Diego Aragão

analyst
#25

But I love to hear that. So yes, we can spend a lot of time talking about Tigo Money because I indeed think it's a great product. Congratulations on this one Mauricio.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#26

And by the way we get this question all the time on the regulatory frameworks. In my conversations with many of the presidents, and this is in their agenda, whether it is Paraguay or Panama or Guatemala, this product -- this drive is in their agendas. They support it because they understand that this is real financial inclusion, the numbers that I just gave you.

Diego Aragão

analyst
#27

Yes. And the reality is some of those markets are very out of the radar right now for investments from different firms that have been ramping up this business model in costs like Brazil, Mexico, I guess.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#28

Yes. And you all know that we're using some of these years otherwise higher operating cash flow or levered free cash flow to invest in Tigo Money. It's within the business. Otherwise, our cash flows would be higher. We're happy to be doing that. But as we go deeper into doing it, we realized that it is actually not as much as we thought it would demand, particularly going into next year. And the reason for that is that we have a lot of things that new players don't have, just the brand name, the capillarity of the network, when you sit in a country like Bolivia, we have 90,000 points of presence. 5,000 already take money and can be converted into Tigo Money. People already trust us; they give us money when they buy prepaid from us. They already send money through Tigo Money. So there is a lot in this that is already just using assets that we already have.

Diego Aragão

analyst
#29

Yes. That's great. And talk about your cash flow. I mean you announced the potential spin-off of some of the mobile towers that you still have. Can you just help us quantifying the number of towers you are considering the economics for this one?

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#30

So this is when I start making the IR group a little bit and the tech group a little bit uncomfortable, but the reality of this is anybody can take out a napkin and figure out this math, right? So just to separate the 2 conversations, we basically said that our key guidance is 3-year based. I'm talking now about the cash flows. And we're basically saying operating cash flows, EBITDA minus CapEx will grow 10% on average for the next 3 years. That was just a way of saying our business model with the margins we have, with the market positions we have with the industry structures that we've been a part of creating most of our markets, by the way, are 2 player markets. And with all of that, we can drive operating cash flow growth of 10% on average for the next 3 years. Now in a given year, maybe a little higher, a little lower, but that's on average. And we've also said that all things included CapEx spectrum, and I jokingly say even the coffee at the office will yield $800 million to $1 billion over the 3-year period that we have included 22, 23, 24, and we're on target to do that. The reason I say that is because the potential tower transaction is not factored into that, right? Because you don't factor M&A when you put out these things. What we have is we have about 10,000 towers, give or take. The acquisition of Panama, as we said at the time, unlocked those in -- sorry, the acquisition of Guatemala, 100% of Guatemala unlock those. So now we have 10,000 towers. We're building about 1,000 a year. So this tower portfolio, and those of you who attended the tower conference in Miami or somewhere in Florida about a month ago, somebody put up a slide out there, which showed us already at those levels as the fifth largest tower company. So we haven't actually legally carved it out just yet, but we're already the fifth largest company in the region. So the process is indeed having the towers out, moving them out, doing the tax structuring. We're now thinking going through the MLAs, et cetera, et cetera. And as I said, we're looking to crystallize a transaction sometime next year. So when you have 10,000 towers, anybody can do math and just for argument's sake, I'm not suggesting that these are the numbers, just back of the envelope math, which everybody is doing. And so at an annual revenue per tower that is just to make the math easier, I'm not saying that's the number, but around $100 million, right? Of EBITDA. And if you put a range on that, so nobody gets distracted by the number and I'm using these ballpark averages for the industry, all those disclaimers, right? When you do that and you think that we will do a transaction in which we will retain, as I said, an important part of the equity because that's what we're looking for to be in the infra business. Let's say, we deconsolidate for argument's sake and we keep 50%, just to make the math easier, then you can put any multiple you want on that tower business and just factoring our 50%. But if you really go through the math, what happens is in that carve-out, the net effect to our EBITDA and our OCF at the Millicom level is neutral, very close to neutral with the math that I just gave you. Very close to neutral. Why? Because we're uploading a fair amount of the CapEx. We're offloading a fair amount of the cost. Yes, we're paying for those leases. But the net effect of those things gives you OCF neutrality, give or take. But you end up with at the Millicom level, a better capital-light model, higher OCF growth and 50% equity and put whatever multiple you want on that business that our shareholders own through Millicom. And that is as a result of being on Infra. That's the story. And we're on track to do that transaction sometime next year.

Diego Aragão

analyst
#31

Mauricio, I know that we are running out of time, but I do have an additional question, if you may. Millicom is a Luxembourg-based company with shares listed in Stockholm and also on NASDAQ Stock Exchange here in the U.S. And I understand that this is something that does not allow you to be part of some of the indexes. But [ so when ] -- LatAm, I mean, you cannot be considered part of this. So is there any plan internally to eventually address these changing the corporate, let's say, structure in order to be 100% LatAm asset that could eventually be part of some index. I've been getting a lot of those questions from investors because they understand that this could be a trigger, right, for your stock once you can bring and onboard some passive funds to the story, right?

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#32

Yes, this is when they -- you're very smooth journalist, by the way. You could have just easily gotten a headline out of that one, and I’m going to be cautious. I think the important thing is to look at what we've done over the last 6 or 7 years in simplifying our story. I cannot emphasize that. We are out of Africa into simple 9 countries with a broadband connectivity play and carving out the businesses that we think will create shareholder value. Fintech and tower, so they can be seen as part of the story within our connectivity business. We're a much simpler streamlined business than we were 6, 7 years ago. And just look at our conversation, very simple. You go country by country; everybody understands what's happening in one of those countries and happening to our story. We also listed the company in the U.S. some years ago, and we've seen our liquidity increase significantly over time. As you know, we're 100% owned by the marketplace, which is significant. It's huge for an play in Latin America. Our liquidity has been increasing significantly. My guys tell me we're like a $15 million, $20 million per day. So the trajectory is quite strong. And if you were to pull out the list of our U.S. investors, you will see that they've been increasingly building portfolios. And that we have some new names in there, which to me means we're getting a lot of U.S. attention, which is the trajectory that you want, while keeping a lot of support from the Swedish investor base. My wife said, can we just chat a little bit today, and I kind of looked at the agenda we have for today. And I'm tired just look at the amount of U.S. investors that are sitting with us today. So that's simply my way of saying there is momentum in the U.S., and we continue to do everything we can to create that increased momentum here.

Diego Aragão

analyst
#33

That's helpful. Thank you very much, Mauricio, for joining us today. I think it was great.

Mauricio Ramos

executive
#34

Good. Happy to be here. Thank you.

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