Mineral Resources Limited (MIN.AX) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
August 28, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
OperatorThank you for standing by, and welcome to Mineral Resources FY '25 Full Year Results Briefing. Your speakers today are Chris Ellison, Managing Director; and Mark Wilson, Chief Financial Officer. And a bit of admin before we kick off. This is a sell-side call with analysts able to ask both text and live audio questions. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded with a written transcript being uploaded to the MinRes website later today. I will now hand over to the MinRes team.
Christopher Ellison
ExecutivesGood morning. Welcome, everyone, and thanks for joining the MinRes full year results. I'm Chris Ellison, I'm the Managing Director. I'm joined today by our Chair, Mal Bundey; and also by CFO, Mark Wilson. Mark will speak on the financials once I get through. I want to start by acknowledging it's been a tough year. We've had been on board for 3 months. And as chair for 2 months in this short time, we've made extraordinary progress on the governance front, and I'm confident the changes we made sets MinRes up for an incredibly strong future. Our focus is on strengthening Board improving transparency and reviewing our governance framework while prioritizing and strengthening our balance sheet. I want to thank our workforce, more than 6,800 people. Their focus and commitment never waived thanks to our partners for their support and to our clients over the past 12 months. From an operational perspective, it's been an extraordinary year. The delivery of Onslow Iron was the most significant achievement in this company's history. We moved from a final investment decision 3 years ago to first ore on ship in May of '24, with more than 100 vessels loaded with our transshippers and over 19 million tonnes have been shipped. As we demonstrated our investors site visit in May, we've achieved so much in a short period. We constructed a 150-kilometer private haul road to carry 300-tonne payload road trains. That's an industry first globally. It's never happened anywhere in the world. We established a complete Port Marine operation, including truck or load storage reclaim, transship laid out and designed and built and commissioned 5 transshippers with 2 more due to arrive in mid '26. We developed resort style accommodation and facilities at our workforce. We want to create a safe environment for our female workforce and address the significant mental health issues that have existed in the mining industry for decades. As with any new project of this size, we faced challenges during commissioning, most notably the Haul Road. The team acted quickly, making the right investment decisions to future proof and improve the haul road I'm pleased to confirm the operators on track for full completion in mid-September. Even with Roadworks disruption, the entire supply chain performance has been outstanding over recent months. Onslow iron has operated at an annualized run rate of 35 million tonnes in the 4 weeks to the 26th of August. The strong performance is in line with guidance of achieving nameplate capacity in quarter 1 FY '26. While the immediate focus is to achieve our FY '26 volume guidance of 30 million to 33 million tonnes on a 100% basis, we now have a clear pathway to operate above nameplate with minimal additional CapEx. Our sixth transship will arrive by the end of this financial year. We'll be set then to increase beyond 35 million tonnes per annum. Our Mining Services business which deserves credit for the success at Onslow Iron remains the heartbeat of MinRes. I view it more like an infrastructure business. It's anchored with fixed assets like the crushing plants, port facilities, the Haul Road. Also, more than 85% of our order book are from life of mine contracts beyond 15 years. Mining Services earnings grew over 30% last year, and volumes will grow over 10% this year. This continues the track record of strong growth over the last 20 years. As a reminder, our IPO in July of 2006, mining services contributed a little over $20 million EBITDA once on soon is a 35 million tonne run rate, this whole business will contribute over $800 million in EBITDA for our share. This represents a 19% compound annual growth rate since IPO. The business was awarded 3 new contract wins and 6 contract renewals during the year. We have an exceptional retention rate, which speaks to our ongoing focus on delivering value for our clients. In the past 10 years, we've only lost 2 contracts to competitors, both of which we won back. These contracts give us stability through the cycles. They underpin our earnings and they allow us to take on large-scale projects like Onslow Iron. Turning to lithium. I acknowledge we got the pricing wrong when we look back over the last 2 years, I've been in the lithium business for over 16 years, and I did not expect to return to prices around $600 a tonne in my lifetime. Back in '23, consensus and allies were all forecasting FY '25 SC6 spot prices of around $1,500 a tonne. This year, we're focused on reducing costs, lifting performance to protect us through the cycle. We've made good progress, and we expect lower costs in FY '26. After lifting out of care and maintenance 3.5 years ago, Wodgina never performed better. While the market remains volatile, the long-term reality hasn't changed. The global energy transition can't happen without an increase in lithium supply. And with the support of our great JV partners, we've maintained flexibility to scale up quickly when the market turns. In the iron ore business, we've decided to close the Yilgarn hub and to sell the mines. This closed a long and productive period in the region. At the Pilbara Hub, we're well advanced in our planning to bring out the next satellite deposit Lamb Creek will be coming into production. We expect approval shortly with the first store in the second half of FY '26. The investment in Lamb Creek will extend the Pilbara Hub life by at least 5 years. Looking ahead, our immediate priorities are clear. We'll continue to lift governance standards, complete the ramp-up of on low iron strengthen the balance sheet, continue to grow our mining services business and best with discipline across the lithium to maximize returns. Against some challenging conditions. We finished the year with plenty of positive momentum, particularly at Onslow in, and that has continued into the start of FY '26. Onslow Iron is proof of our ability to deliver big, ambitious projects quickly and to a standard that creates lasting value to our shareholders. That about wraps that up. And I'll hand across to Mark for his commentary on the financials.
Mark Wilson
ExecutivesThanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'm pleased to run you through MinRes' financial performance for FY '25. As Chris said, it was another transformative year for MinRes, headlined by the delivery of Onslow iron and record mining services earnings. We've strengthened our position as a leader in mining services, continued to invest in world-class assets and we unlock substantial value from our core operations and infrastructure. This was achieved despite sharply lower commodity process, particularly in lithium and iron ore, which inevitably impacted our results. Even so, we delivered a robust financial outcome with revenue of $4.5 billion and underlying EBITDA of $900 million. This performance reflects the strength of our diversified business model. cost and capital discipline and the repositioning of our portfolio to transition to higher-quality assets and increasing recurring Mining Services earnings. Mining Services delivered record underlying EBITDA of $737 million. This was driven by record production volumes and the strong ramp-up at Onslow Iron, with the first earnings recognized from the Onslow Iron Road Trust. In iron ore, underlying EBITDA was $252 million in a year of transition. We placed the Yilgarn hub into Karen maintenance from December 24, as Chris noted, but the change was more than offset by growth in Onslow Iron, reaffirming our focus on longer life, lower-cost assets. In lithium, challenging market conditions saw prices fall to multiyear lows yet, the division still delivered a positive underlying EBITDA of $23 million. The key focus was on operational improvements and disciplined cost control, while Bald Hill was placed into care and maintenance to preserve value until conditions recover. Our disciplined approach to cost and capital management continue to underpin the business. And this year, we reduced corporate outflows through efficiency measures, workforce optimization, IT savings and the off-hiring of surplus equipment. Given our financial position and ongoing investment commitments, the Board has taken the prudent decision not to declare a final dividend for FY '25. At 30 June, liquidity stood at over $1.1 billion with no near-term maturity pressure. Our first U.S. bond maturity is due in May 2027, nearly 3 years away. And the potential refinancing rate today is now something like 7.5%. During the year, we unlocked significant liquidity through strategic transactions. We sold a minority interest in the Onslow Iron Private Haul Road to Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners, validating the quality and longevity of that asset. We also completed a substantial gas and oil transaction with Hancock Prospecting, accelerating cash realization. Capital expenditure was $1.9 billion over the year, with the majority directed towards finishing Onslow Iron. Total CapEx was $200 million below guidance, though $100 million of that is a timing difference that will flow into FY '26. For FY '26, we expect capital expenditure to reduce to approximately $1.1 billion, with roughly half being sustaining capital. and the rest directed to Onslow Iron's completion and expansion, Pilbara Hub operations and targeted exploration. As the chair noted in a shareholder letter, with Onslow in generating growing cash flows, alongside strong liquidity, declining CapEx and the ability to accelerate deleveraging inorganically, we do not need to raise equity to fund our growth pipeline. We've also been proactive and begun to initiate some iron ore hedging in the near term, while we're completing on slow construction and spending the majority of our FY '26 growth CapEx. With the iron ore price around or slightly over USD 100 a tonne in recent months, and as I flagged at the June quarterly, we've prudently hedged a portion of our remaining calendar year 2025 production across a mix of collars with floors of USD 100 and ceilings around USD 107 and fixed prices averaging around USD 103 million. As of today, we have about 1/4 of our remaining production over the next 6 months hedged. In conclusion, FY '25 demonstrated our ability to operate effectively through challenging conditions while advancing key projects that are central to our future. We've laid the platform for a stronger balance sheet, improved cash generation and transitioning to long-life, low-cost assets that will sustain earnings for decades to come. We remain committed to disciplined capital allocation, prudent financial management and the creation of enduring value for our shareholders. Looking ahead, we're reviewing our capital allocation framework to ensure future investment decisions, maximize shareholder returns while reinforcing balance sheet resilience. Thank you. We're now happy to take your questions.
Operator
Operator[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Lachlan Shaw at UBS.
Lachlan Shaw
AnalystsJust 2 questions from me. So firstly, at well done on the 35 million tonnes annum run rate. But I do wonder if you can just give us a little bit of an update on the latest jumbo truck rollover I suppose that the cause, potential remediation measures and any production impacts?
Christopher Ellison
ExecutivesYes. Lachlan, it was a little disappointing. We did have a truck that lay on its side on Saturday night. But look, fundamentally, it was just simply a driver error. We're not immune to what the rest of the world is with running these highways. The truck driver thought that he was nearing a [ restage ] and he was about 180 meetings from it when he took the truck off the side of the road. And when he saw where he was. He applied the brakes and the front prime mover and the 2 trailers just lay on this side. We're straight in touch with the regulator. I think the regulator appreciates that we face the same problem as the rest of the world with these highways. We've in fact traveled since our last accent we've traveled almost 13 million kilometers accident free, and we're running about 600 drivers in the operation up there. So look, we want to be totally accident free, of course, but these things are going to happen from time to time.
Lachlan Shaw
AnalystsGreat. Okay. So just any production impact to speak of?
Christopher Ellison
ExecutivesNo. No. Lachlan, we were down for a couple of hours. We shut everything down to make sure went back through and spoke to all the drivers. Look, fortunately, I mean, the driver in the truck, there was no injury at all. I mean, we still to return to work. He was stood down pending the investigation. But no impact on downtime, a couple of hours last time, but the transhippers are running and plenty of stocks in at the port. But I mean the focus was on -- if we thought there was some other issue out there, we would have pulled the operation up because safety is a priority. But no, it's no impact on time returns.
Operator
OperatorOur next question comes from Bennett Lyons from Jarden Securities.
Ben Lyons
AnalystsChris, in terms of all the comments in the shareholder letter, not so much about the no present need to raise equity, but more so that you're actively exploring opportunities to accelerate the deleveraging through an inorganic pathway. Obviously, you need to get some cash in the door via that path. So it sort of sounds more like asset refiling. So First question, I guess, is, can you please elaborate on any potential opportunities that you're considering to accelerate that inorganic deleveraging?
Christopher Ellison
ExecutivesYes. Ben, look, we're always looking at opportunity. And if you have a look at particularly over the last decade, we've been able to take up a range of different opportunities and recycling capital. We've been able to buy assets very cheaply develop them using our in-house resources and be able to go out there and sell them for a fairly reasonable price. And at the same time in doing that, we've collected some incredibly high class Tier 1 joint vendor partners around the world. So I mean that partnership has evolved out of us, bringing in capital onto our balance sheet has really turned the business into something that's fairly successful. But we're looking at opportunities out there that they do present from time to time. And look, certainly, if we're going to do something, once we've got something binding in hand, we'll let the market know.
Ben Lyons
AnalystsOkay. Maybe just one follow-up on that. I think previously, we've chatted about the potential U.S. listing maybe for a portion of the lithium business, for example, is basically being considered -- just wondering if you've investigated whether you're actually able to issue a prospectus or equity in the U.S. under the SEC jurisdiction whilst the company remains under investigation by SEC down here?
Christopher Ellison
ExecutivesYes. Look, Ben, we kind of got our timing wrong on that. We probably -- if we had to started 6 months earlier, we would have put it away. But look, our timing was right. And I think I've said quite a while back that that's not on the cards anymore. We're not going down that path. I mean the lithium is in a fairly significant downturn, as you know, and hopefully, on a come back. So it's not -- that hasn't been on the cards for a couple of years.
Operator
OperatorOur next question comes from Rob Stein from Macquarie.
Robert Stein
AnalystsJust a quick one on the sustaining investments in the Utah hub. Can you talk to any sort of return protection strategies that you're putting around that given the CapEx investment in an asset that could be susceptible to losses if iron ore prices were to fall? And I've got a follow-up.
Christopher Ellison
ExecutivesRob, we've been operating in that central Pilbara region for I mean I started way back at the beginning of 2,000 on manganese. And through a lot of commodity downturns, I mean, we've always made that hub work extremely well. I mean it's -- it contributes both on mining services and on obviously, the iron ore value. And at $100 a tonne, that thing sort of kicks in combined with services and iron ore, it kicks in between about 100 and 130 million EBITDA per annum. So -- and we also -- we also need Lamb Creek to be able to support Iron Valley. We need to be able to do that land. So look, we just see that, that hub up there is it's been valuable to us for a long time, and it's contributed for a long time, and we can manage it. Look, I remember a few years back, we got -- we went under USD 40 a tonne an iron ore, and we've managed to keep that thing limping along. So I don't think I could do it again at $38 a tonne, but I don't expect iron ore over the next 5 years to get down to anywhere near those levels.
Robert Stein
AnalystsAnd just on the lithium side of the business, noting the CapEx, it was not light on, but I mean the CapEx didn't include any major development at Mt Marion such for a float plant or anything like that. Can you give us an update on how you're looking at development options at Mt Marion and Wodgina if the lithium prices were to continue their recovery and against any sort of sustaining needs over the next few years?
Christopher Ellison
ExecutivesYes. Look, again, we simply with the price of lithium dropping below $1,500. We just basically pulled out any capital that we cut out of the business. We just simply tour every dollar out of the business that we could in operating and capital spend. And until we see sustainability up around the $1,500 a tonne plus. No real plans on doing anything. The -- once we repair our balance sheet, I think the priority would be around Mt Marion. I'm getting a float plant in there. It's a fairly small capital spend and the -- look about 18 months payback down there. And the other thing it does at Mt Marion, it takes us away from 2 products up into 5 products. So not a common sense in doing it, but we need to see 2 things. We need to see a better balance sheet, and we need to see sustainability in the long-term price.
Operator
OperatorOur next question comes from Kaan Peker from RBC.
Kaan Peker
AnalystsIn 4Q, I think Mark mentioned that there was some hedges carrying up and appears that has continued. I think in 4Q, the volumes are around 1 million to 1.5 million tonnes. What's the quantum growing to? And do they mainly linked to the Pilbara Hub volumes? And I'll circle back with the second question.
Mark Wilson
ExecutivesIt's to touch under 3 million tonnes now and the combination of forward sales at around 103 and 0 cost collars between ceiling of 107 and the floor of 100. We're not specific in terms of the location from where they get sourced.
Kaan Peker
AnalystsSure. And then recently, one of your peers has carried out a low-cost RMB-denominated debt facility. Just wondering if MIN has looked into this option?
Mark Wilson
ExecutivesYes. I'm familiar with the transaction you're referencing. The headline number looks great. It does. When you swap it back into the equivalent currency the pricing differential isn't all that great relative to the cost of transacting in the U.S. market. So I think if I step back from that particular question, we're constantly evaluating a range of sources of capital to this business. And I think that the debt market understands us well having been in the U.S. now since 2019. So we have a range of options available. We'll continue to assess them as we go.
Operator
OperatorOur next question comes from Matthew Frydman from MST Financial.
Matthew Frydman
AnalystsFirst question for me. Can you maybe expand on exactly what's being considered as part of that capital allocation review that you've alluded to? I guess, what's within the scope of what you're working towards there? You're talking about putting guardrails or targets on the leverage ratios in the business and so on? And if so, how do you think about the leverage that the business can sustain when you compare the commodity exposures across the business versus compared to maybe the more -- the cyclical but arguably more repeatable services earnings?
Mark Wilson
ExecutivesI'll take that. So the capital allocation framework is a key priority of the board, and it's something we're discussing regularly. The intention is to come back to the market with an update in the coming months. But broadly speaking, it will include a consideration of financial policies of the group, and it will consider how we think about allocating free cash in the group.
Matthew Frydman
AnalystsOkay. Understood, Mark. And then secondly, again, noting your comments on the run rate that Onslow's been able to achieve in August and the fact that you're aiming to finish up all of the remediation works on the haul rate in September. Just with reference, I suppose, to the $200 million deferred consideration, is there a window that, that could be achieved in, say, the August to November sort of window before really cycling season ramps up? Is that the aim of the business? Or how are you thinking about, I guess, the windows to achieving that deferred consideration?
Christopher Ellison
ExecutivesYes. Look, our focus basically at Onslow, I mean, yes, we want the $200 million, no doubt about that. But look, our real focus out there is just to get sustainable operation. That's what we've been working through from May back in '24 when we wanted to get early cash flow in. Now we've got all parts of the project are operating. The Haul Road will come off that in mid-September, as we said. But August has been just an evolution of where we've been heading, getting everything getting everything commissioned from on the mine site right through to the transhippers. It's a challenge on any of these major projects. And look, if you have a look over the last 15 or 20 years on large commodities that have come online, I mean, this thing has got a ramp rate in terms of the build time and the time we're able to turn it on has been awfully quick. But look, I expect that the run rate that we're getting in August will carry through into September, October and it will be a continuous operation save for any weather events that we get out there or things that are out of our control, whether or well, that's the things that we look out for. And look, we've had a lot of years in the Pilbara where we had no cycling. So the opportunity for us to pick up that $200 million is -- I mean, it's real all the way through. I mean I don't expect a very unusual for November and December cycle. So yes, we've got another months to do that and then March, April, May, June beyond. So look, I expect that we'll do it, but the focus is on just consistent operation, goods, consistent, safe operation.
Operator
OperatorOur next question comes from Glyn Lawcock from Barrenjoey.
Glyn Lawcock
AnalystsChris, can I just talk to you a little bit on Wodgina and then your overall guidance? I mean, Wodgina's 3 trains operational, always running 2 of the 3, and I was always thinking $250,000 a train and then of course you can swap. Is the guidance just conservative across the board? It just feels like it feels like that. Just any comments you could make.
Christopher Ellison
ExecutivesNo, Glyn, I mean, look, under the circumstances of where we are. I mean we're both -- and what you said is quite right. We're running 2 out of 3 trains at any given time, we're alternating them. But look, we're not really going flat out trying to push a lot of product into the market. We're trying to make sure we're conservative on the product we sell when we're not making a lot out of it. And at the same time, we want to make sure that the budgets that we put out in the market are achievable. I wouldn't say that I would -- the budgets we got out there about what we're going to achieve. There may be a bit of upside with them, but we're operating with a commodity, and we're operating in the Northwest of WA. So I mean, we used our experience up there to be able to make sure we've got a budget that's pretty much on the money the Same with Mt Marion.
Glyn Lawcock
AnalystsOkay. And then just staying on Wodgina. I think it was Pilbara last week talked about maybe getting floor pricing to restart luggage I mean, is there an opportunity because I think Wodgina is still fully uncontracted, so it's all selling spot. Have you entertained the idea of floor pricing for Wagner for pricing to maybe get bought hill back up, given that you've already hedged your iron ore a little bit just -- is that considerable or just not even in your thinking?
Christopher Ellison
ExecutivesNo. I mean, Glyn, we've been doing this a long, long time. And I mean if you're going to go and put floor pricing and what you're actually doing is you're giving a discount on your product for surety of sale. And we've never needed that. We've got some really good lines out there. And I've always kept all of the lithium business floating. Look, we've had some of the prices you've seen lithium spiking out over the last month. I mean we've been right up there and achieving that. and say no, look, we just don't get any value out of putting a long-term contract away with some clients. The only thing I want to talk about is discount.
Operator
OperatorOur next question comes from Kate McCutcheon from Citi.
Kate McCutcheon
AnalystsJust that on -- what is the timing on that $200 million contingent payment? Does it come in on the first of November, if you have another 2 months above 35 million tonnes? Or is it a month later? And secondly, just the Northern Gateway Trust sale, is that still happening? And any comments on the magnitude we could expect on timing?
Christopher Ellison
ExecutivesDo you want to answer that, Mark?
Mark Wilson
ExecutivesIn terms of the $200 million, Kate, the test is $35 million run rate over 3 consecutive months. the payment, assuming that trigger is met will be within a month or so afterwards. The Northern Gateway update, process is well progressed. Trustee is running that process. There are conditional contracts in place over a couple of the assets, and I'm comfortable that our book value will be met or exceeded.
Kate McCutcheon
AnalystsOkay. And then just following up on Wodgina. So Train 3 is built and turning periodically. As you just said, is there a lithium price that the JV would need to see to look to utilize that third train? And what is the ramp-up time line? Because I assume you have to ramp up that tonnes that you're mining out of the pit. Is it something that you can make a decision on and more times could come in 6 months? Or how do I think about that?
Christopher Ellison
ExecutivesNo. Look, basically, we're running 2 of any 3 trains. So all of the trains are operational. So it's immediate to turn a train on. We just simply don't want to put more tonnes in the market. We're giving the future away on the business. And we want to be able to conserve those. And we're running the mine as well at what we consider the optimum. So the lowest operating costs and trying to maximize the best bottom line we can out of Wodgina. And you probably noticed from the beginning of this calendar year, the a lot of changes were made in the plant. We've optimized, and we've made some pretty good changes where we've increased the recoveries quite significantly. So that's really been our focus. But keeping it at optimal operating cost is sort of where we're sitting at the moment.
Operator
OperatorOur next question comes from Lachlan Shaw from UBS.
Lachlan Shaw
AnalystsYes. Thanks for my follow-up. So I just wanted to pick up on lithium again. So Chris, your comment that you'd be looking to sort $1,500 sustainable. That's really helpful. I wanted to sort of follow on then what do you think would be realistic in terms of mobilization time? Obviously, wage probably have to mobilize more kit to get the feed rate up to the plants up to 3 trains. And then Bald Hill is sort of a potential complete remobilization. So how should we think about that in terms of timing of when they could come back in?
Christopher Ellison
ExecutivesOkay. So at Wodgina, in terms of timing, I mean, we've got most of the kit on site. It's just parked up. So realistically, 6 to 8 weeks at Wodgina to get the right mine planning happening then from 2 to 3. And that's about all it would take. Bald Hill, again, we've got most of the equipment sitting on site and it's under care and maintenance. But if you thought about Bald Hill 3 to 4 months to be able to remobilize down there and then gradually start up 2 more must be on that to have everything operating well.
Lachlan Shaw
AnalystsYes. Okay. Great. I might just pop back with one more as well. So Mining Services margins, solid performance in the year. I wanted to ask about looking forward to '26 and maybe beyond, how do you think about that -- sorry, how should we think about your Mining Services margins in the next sort of year 2, 3 years out?
Mark Wilson
ExecutivesI'll take that. I think the best way to think about it is we've regularly said for quite a while now, $2 a tonne is a reasonable indication of the performance. Obviously, they were a little bit ups and downs this year with the ramp-up rates that Mining Services was able to achieve through Onslow and also the impact of additional haulage costs in the second half, in particular. We have coming into this first quarter, and I think I might have touched on some of this in the quarterly, just a little bit. We have some haulage carrying over into that first quarter, but we also have some higher rates in the schedule for the first quarter. So as a general rule, I'd stick with the $2 a tonne thereabouts.
Operator
Operator[Operator Instructions] The next question we have is Ben Lyons from Jarden Securities.
Ben Lyons
AnalystsMaybe firstly on RDG and the [ Lucky Bay Ghana ] project. I understand the process hasn't been closed out yet. But if you're successful in the secured debt facilities and you acquired that project and the associated manganese assets as well. just what strategy will be there, whether you intend on thinking any additional capital into the project to try and make it more economic? And if not, what the possible holding cost would be if you move to more of a care and maintenance style management.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesBen, it's Mal. Look, we've got to get through the process first. There's administrators in place, and we're following that process. We've obviously -- it's been reported and it's in the administrator's reports. We've put a bid in via docker, and we'll wait and see how that pans out. Our plans will be formulated as we see the outcomes of that process. really. And so we haven't fully turned our mind because we haven't been in an operating position with any of those assets or the company. So we hadn't turned our mind to what that looks like yet. We've got people starting to formulate that.
Ben Lyons
AnalystsOkay. And maybe one for Mark. I note the indicative guidance for the carry line proceeds that should flow to minimum over the next 12 months? Haven't had a chance to go through all of the accounts in detail yet. But maybe just a quick steer on the right direction where we can see that coming through both the P&L and the cash flow statement, please? And whether that amount also contributes to the iron ore segment EBITDA?
Mark Wilson
ExecutivesBen, the answer is no, it doesn't contribute to the EBITDA. It's the JV partner's share of free cash that they generate from the operations of the mine and then they have to pay out 80% of that free cash flow. When we've modeled that, and it's about $350 million shown as current. We've assumed about 95% for the year and production at a touch over 30%, to give you a broad sense as to how it's how it's constructed or how we've assumed it. In terms of the financials, it effectively comes in as a -- at the moment, it's a receivable, and it just comes in as a contract against the receivable. It doesn't go through the P&L.
Operator
OperatorOur next question comes from Rob Stein from Macquarie.
Robert Stein
AnalystsThe services volumes guidance, the 3 -- sorry, [$315 million ] midpoint. If I net out the Ono contribution, what should we expect from the rest of the business? Is it a straight up sort of 4x the employed tonnes to net off that? Or is there some advanced movement in different parts of the mine plan that we should consider in the year going forward?
Mark Wilson
ExecutivesRob, I'll take that. I mean for Onslow, it is just the 4 tonnes of activity. when you think about the guidance, what's feeding into that is we've got some external wins and opportunities that we will commence and expect to convert. But we also have tonnes coming off from prior year. For example, Mt Marion, we're going to do less tonnes. We've obviously put Yilgarn and Bald Hill on care and maintenance. And so those all feed into that guidance number. I hope that answers the question.
Robert Stein
AnalystsIt does. And sorry, just to come back to Utah hub. It's very informative that you've got the Onslow breakevens in the deck. I was just wondering if you could speak to the Utah Hub breakeven that you guys see on an all-in sustaining basis?
Christopher Ellison
ExecutivesWe're about -- I think we've flagged about $75 to $80 a tonne for the central Pilbara, and it generally sits around there.
Operator
OperatorOur next question comes from [John Campbell ] from the Australian Shareholders Association.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsChris, I'd be interested to know what the transhipper maintenance schedule as I understood that they need to go to Singapore for maintenance. And I guess that takes a while for them to get there and get back again. How frequently do they have to go? And will the #6 and 7 arrive in time for the first 1 they have to go?
Christopher Ellison
ExecutivesYes, John, they have to go in to draw the dock every 5 years. So look, we've got plenty of time for that. And we'll probably -- we'll take just simply one at a time. They get to up there with the tag we'll have 6 operating at any time, and we've got the seventh transhipper arriving about August next year, and that's to take care of any redundancy.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsBut in terms of what happened during the year with the 3 nonexecutive directors who resigned from the ethics committee, can you tell us what the reason was for that resignation?
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesJohn, it's Mal. Look, I'm not going to speak on behalf of the other directors. I think recently, [ Justin Langer ] resigned from the Board, and he gave his reasons for that. And we're still progressing to refresh the Board, which was my intent when I came on board, and I think you've seen 2 very strong candidates, and we're continuing to progress that activity going forward.
Operator
OperatorThank you. There are no further questions. That concludes today's call. Thanks for your time, and have a great day. Please reach out to the MinRes team if you have any follow-up questions. You may now disconnect.
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