Mineral Resources Limited (MIN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

August 29, 2022

Australian Securities Exchange AU Materials Metals and Mining earnings 148 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Christopher Ellison

executive
#1

Good morning, everyone. Welcome. Thanks for joining us at our full year results presentation. I think James would like me to mention that anything we say or do here won't be taking down as evidence and used against. This's what we're after, James, isn't? Don't take anything too serious. We've made a little movie up, actually we made 2. We've got a little movie we want to show you now. So we'll let you run through that. Then I'm going to tell you what we've been doing over the last 12 months. And Mark's going to share with us the detailed run-through on the financials. And then I'm going to tell you where I'm taking the business over the next 2 to 5 years, and then we'll have some Q&A. So should we roll the movie? [Presentation]

Christopher Ellison

executive
#2

Pretty amazing, all those people, all those sites you just saw they're all ours, which is quite incredible because on July 1 this year, was our 30th anniversary. I started MinRes in the lounge of my house, my rented house, just over 30 years ago, a $10,000 cash in the bank and a credit card, they forgot to take it off me. And we listed in 2006 with a market cap of about $100 million, and we've just gone into the ASX 50, and we've got a market cap of about -- we did have on Friday of about $12 billion. So I mean, our little business has come a long way, and it's got an incredible future ahead of it. We've done some milestones over the years. And the one that just passed is probably one of our busiest ever. I mean, when you look at that and think s***, did we get all that done and we run the business, and we did. So look, I'm going to -- I'll be as quick as I can. I'll run you through the performance of the business over the last 12 months. I want to talk about where we're going over the next 5 years. It's really important. I mean it's not where we hope to be going. It's where we're actually going. We got most of it is pretty much locked in. And at the end, we'll spend a bit of time on Q&A. If anything I haven't really explained here as properly. So highlights in the business. We've had just over $1 billion EBITDA, second best performance that we've had financially. We had about out $2.5 billion cash at the bank. We did a bond raising with JPMorgan over the U.S. Earlier in the year, we got our timing right on that, very happy to have that done. We're going to pay a dividend for this financial year of the dollar. We didn't pay anything in the first half, but we're more or less holding back to make sure that we got our bond raising down. We understood where we're going on our funding, and we had everything in place. So we think we can afford to give our shareholders a $1 a share. I've restructured the business over the last 12 months, which has been substantial. I spent almost 30 years trying to make sure I had a fully integrated business, and we're no silos in it. And I've now got 4 main operating pillars sitting in the business, and we brought in some extra help to make sure that they're all self-managed. That's gone incredibly well. We've got -- we've done that because over the next 5 years, the business is going to grow significantly. So commodities part of MinRes over the next 2 years will at least double. The mining services part of the business over the next 5 years will double and then some, so getting a much more difficult creature to manage, but we're just going about doing that in a different way. Some of the other highlights in terms of BD business development without a doubt, our best period ever. I mean we've been working on some things for a number of years, but we've just got a whole lot of things to come together over the last 12 months. The mining services as part of the business always performs pretty well. We are the premium Mining Services business in the country. If you got MinRes on the job, I mean, you're going to get your tonnes down every day, whether it's mining, crushing or running process plants or some of the innovation we've brought online lately. We're well known for delivering and not just delivering with the way we deliver with the culture that we have, and some of our major clients tell us we -- they monitor our productivity. We're generally sitting 30% to 40% above our clients. And that's just because the nature of the beast, the culture that we have in that business. We've got some really good innovation we brought into the mining services. We've got these big trucks. We've really killed the price of inland haulage, we've got it down to a number that's getting closer to owning trains without the capital cost. And we've established the Marine business. And as I said earlier, we're currently out there, we're building 4 transhippers. There'll be a fifth one that will be going into the order line up shortly. On the lithium front, again, it's been a pretty good year for us on lithium. Wodgina is back online. We're cranking up trains 1 and 2, both of them are running now. We restructured completely the Albemarle deal, which I'll tell you about. And we're doubling production down at Mt Marion. So we're going from 450 to 900,000 tonnes. There are mix tonnes, which I'll talk about as well. The iron ore, we have got as of Friday night just past. Finally, it's been -- we were talking a little bit earlier, we were heading towards trying to buy that asset about 2013. It's going to be about $1.25 billion for us, and I've now been able to secure the majority of that. And we had FID from all our partners, 3 great partners in there with Baosteel, POSCO and AMCI. We also were the winners of the last cape-size carrier berth in Port Hedland. We got a majority share in that given to us, and we use that majority share as currency, and then we went and sat down with Hancock and we got a binding deal with them where we're going to put together a port and rail structure for probably the last forever. And then on the energy front, our fourth arm of the business, we've probably got the largest onshore gas discovery sitting up in the Perth Basin. Sustainability, really important. We've got to grow our business around people, people are everything to us going forward. They are getting more difficult to get. And even then when you get them, you've got to keep them. We've developed a fairly amazing work environment and our new head office we've only been in it for a couple of months, but it's already changed the way people view it, the way they behave. We don't have 1 single person that wants to work from home anymore. It's fully equipped with wellness center, medical facilities, a great coffee shop. We're serving over 1,000 meals a day in there, and there's a choice of probably 30 different meals you can have for lunch at 4 or 5 that you can take home at night. So your wife no longer has to cook. She can trade the kitchen and for about $8 a meal. They've got a really high-quality offering. So we've got a large training intake through apprentices, graduate programs, trainees, Unikids, we've got a lot going on in that front, and we're exceptionally good at what we do when it comes to training. The safety, we've got a really strongly entrenched culture in the MinRes business. If you have a look at our results, we're running over 5,000 people, and we're throwing stones at bits and metal pretty much all day long. We haven't had 1 total recordable injury, sorry, lost time injury over the last 12 months. And our TRIFR rate is at a standard that you would expect an insurance company to have. So the results we're getting there are incredible. Most of these results are a direct result of either the culture that we run in the business in conjunction with all of the training that we do, and we're very heavy on training, but that's the result you get out of it. Supporting local indigenous communities has really amped up a lot more over the last couple of years for us. Very, very focused and engaged with the traditional landowners around the Wodgina, Onslow project. In terms of community donations, MinRes put nearly $6 million into the community and a different range of donations that we've done about $1.7 billion spend into the local community and about $10 million spend into the indigenous communities, and that's going to grow a lot more over the next couple of years. The environment, I think the environment, the mining industry in Western Australia is out there. It's probably -- if it's not the best in the world, it had been in the top 2. I mean the way that we manage the mining, the environment, the land that we're on is almost second to none in the world. I know that we've had some bad press over there for blowing up a cave. But you need to remember that, that was the way it was done in those days. It is -- they were fully approved and permitted to do what they've done. It's just that the timing got wrong. Generally, I think I look over rehab ground that we do. When we walk away from it, it's generally a better state than when we found anything, any doubt about that. And we're doing a lot of work around innovative ways on how we can better use water. We've had a lot of success on that. We're using less water now per tonne of ore processed, and we're spending quite a bit of money on that going forward that's becoming really important. So if we can get that water usage down, we're also looking hard. We've been working the last couple of years on tailings management, dry stacking and trying to eliminate tails dams. So we're hitting all -- I mean we're all aiming for a net zero on carbon emissions by 2050. I think the whole world is starting to think we can do a whole lot better than that, and we're trying to look in every area that we can. We're using gas and solar to transition away from diesel. So our focus has been for a couple of years on getting out of burning diesel wherever we can. We're installing solar, solar is as a good friend for us in the regions that we live in. So we can certainly create a lot of power during sunlight hours, and then we're looking at wherever we can, we're heading down the path of going electric, so that we can reduce emissions, the big haul tracks that we're running it on. So we're confident by 2025, we'll have them all running electric, and that will get rid of about 120 kilotonnes of carbon out of the atmosphere. The 1 manner solar that we put out there got rid of 1,800 tonnes out of the atmosphere. Our new head office already is totally carbon neutral. So wherever we can in those areas, we're working pretty hard to make sure that we can get the right outcomes. So look, I'm going to pass over to Mark to talk to you about financials, and then I'll come back to you.

Mark Wilson

executive
#3

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everybody. Apologies if I sound a bit croaky. It's a pleasure to be here this morning to walk you through the financial results for the group for FY '22. And as Chris said, it's been a huge year for the business in many ways. From a financial perspective, it's been a year of 2 halves for us. First half was a challenging year First half was a challenging year financially -- challenging period financially with a steep decline in iron ore prices, widening discounts and increased costs, particularly in the shipping. We took steps to cut production in the Yilgarn to remove high-cost tonnes and worked to preserve capital by targeting CapEx. Second half was very different. We saw the emergence of lithium as a real generating powerhouse for us. We expect that to contribute into the future. We saw lithium driven by higher prices and first contributions from hydroxide sales, which we talk about. Plants stabilized through the period and discounts tightened. And as Chris said, in the second half, we took steps to strengthen the balance sheet with the debt raise to help make sure we're well placed to fund the growth in front of us. So in summary, we're in a strong position, a strong balance sheet with great liquidity, ready to deliver all these opportunities in front of us. In terms of the underlying P&L, as Chris said, underlying EBITDA was $1.024 billion, a strong performance for us from where we were at the end of the first half. It was driven by record contributions from lithium $585 million. Mining services, $333 million, both very strong. Iron ore rebounded from a loss in the first half to contribute $64 million. We did see a considerable cost pressures through the year. And I'll talk about that when we get to the guidance section, but the costs did land within the guidance that we've provided. Overall, solid performance. And as Chris said, gave us the confidence to declare -- the Board to declare a $1 fully franked dividend. In terms of the next slide, you'll see a bridge that shows how the year looks compared to the prior year. You can see from that graph, the significant impact of fall in iron ore price had on us about $1.4 billion, offset to an extent by spodumene prices rising, that's a $400 million benefit for us. Overall, adjusting for pricing and so on, underlying performance of the group saw about 9% growth through improved volumes and so on. In terms of the cash flow, historically, the group has had a very strong record of converting EBITDA to cash. This year, we saw an increase in working capital, which I'll step through in a little bit more detail shortly. So we converted about 62% of the EBITDA into cash in the period. The tax and dividends that you see there on that slide referenced 2021, and we've invested about $800 million in CapEx over the year. I'll talk through that in a bit more detail, and you can see the impact of the bond raising and the cash flow, of course. In terms of the working capital movement, just to explain this a little bit better, saw an increase in working capital required of about $404 million in the year. 3/4 of that is tied up in receivables. Half of that spot -- sorry, half of the lithium receivable is spot, and that's real spodumene. That's the shipments of spodumene right at the end of the period. So that's a sign of the increased working cap demands of the higher price in spodumene, including true-ups on earlier shipments. And there's $223 million worth of lithium hydroxide receivables at the end of the year, and that ties to the commercial arrangements we have with Ganfeng through the conversion of that hydroxide. In terms of the capital expenditure of the $800 million, $431 million of it is referable to investment in growth for the future. You can see in this slide the breadth of activity that we have across different categories, the recommencement of operations at Wodgina, continued expansion or growth in new opportunities in iron ore as well as Onslow. Chris so that we've started there. We have mining services, continued investment there and the investment in the office, not just in the office, but we've also started to invest more heavily in technology and moving towards the implementation of an ERP. In terms of the balance sheet, balance sheet was solid position, closing cash of $2.4 billion, undrawn facilities on top of that, borrowing sitting at $3.1 billion following the new notes offering. Overall, I'm comfortable with the way the balance sheet shapes up. It leaves us in a great position to be able to move forward and deliver on the opportunities in front of us. Just note that there is playing with the numbers. There is a noncurrent payable of just under $200 million. That's part of the deal for the Red Hill deferred consideration effectively on the Red Hill Iron JV tenements. Net debt. So this is only the third time in the last 10 years that we've been net debt at balance date. So historically, we've been conservative. We've been happy to sit net cash, where we see opportunity to invest, we will. And we have -- last time we went net debt was 2019 when we funded the lithium expansion. And what we saw then was a rapid transition back into net cash. We're happy to go net debt, where we see good quality assets with long-term horizons. That's what we see here with strong returns. And we've talked consistently. We haven't changed our view. We want these assets, these investments to deliver a 20% return on invested capital. That's an after-tax return. We haven't changed that metric. So we finished the year, $700 million net debt. There's more details in the appendices around the credit metrics, which remain strong. As we move to this next -- through this next half and complete this next year, credit metrics will look very strong. And to be frank, that's why the bond investors were prepared to back us in the middle of a very uncertain debt market a few months ago. In terms of value creation. We like these graphs because we think they tell the story of the business. We focus on return on invested capital. Historically, we've averaged 21% since listing. That focus has helped us drive operating cash of almost $7 billion, $6.9 billion over that period. That's allowed us to grow dividends at a rate of 20% per annum. Balance sheet's doubled in size over the last 5 years and will continue to do so in coming years. Key thing I want to leave you with as I thought this morning though, we're in great shape to be able to take on what we have in front of us. In terms of guidance, in terms of iron ore, we're keeping production flat. We're being a little bit more targeted, particularly in the Yilgarn. We're trying to simplify operations there a little bit as we start to think about other opportunities down there. In terms of costs, the midpoint of our cost guidance is up 14% year-on-year. So we're seeing that industry-wide cost pressures, labor, labor increases, cost of retention of people, energy costs. We're seeing costs being passed through to us by OEMs on heavy equipment and so on. In terms of lithium, as Chris said, a significant ramp-up of production ahead of us with Marion targeting to a run rate of 900,000 at the end of this year. Costs at Marion are going to be in line with where they were last year, and that's showing the benefit of improved scale. Wodgina, we're giving guidance there on the basis of 50% share in the asset, just no doubt. We haven't moved legally to that point, but you'll see that detail that Chris will get to. Costs there are high, and that's just showing the ramp-up at Wodgina with lower scale. Life of mine Wodgina is probably 20% cheaper than Marion to mine -- to operate. We haven't provided hydroxide guidance at this time because we're still working on finalizing the long-term downstream arrangements, and Kemerton hasn't yet reached commercial production. Gas mining services, I expect those volumes to remain steady over this next -- this current year, FY '23. In terms of capital expenditure guidance, debated whether to round some of these numbers up because they look very precise. But anyway, about $2 billion this year, 70% of it's with Onslow Iron. That's the spend that's underway now with FID taken on Friday night and the binding term sheet entered into, we'll be accelerating that in the months ahead. The team are ready. Some growth spend in lithium. Notably, we've set aside about $100 million to do more drilling and energy. We think there's a huge opportunity there. Chris will talk about that in more detail, but the payoff has already been huge, and we just see enormous opportunity in the tenements that we have. So in summary, we're in good shape heading into this new year. The combination of those numbers that you see in the guidance will give you a good outcome in the current year. Balance sheet is in great position to be able to help us fund the opportunities in front of us. Thanks, everybody. I'll hand back now to Chris.

Christopher Ellison

executive
#4

Well done, Mark, thanks for that. Okay. So I'll just give you a little bit of rundown on what we've done over the last 12 months from an operational point of view. For those that aren't really familiar with the MinRes business, we're sort of running 4 key parts -- pillars to our business. So we got mining services, lithium, iron ore and energy. The mining services part of the business is sort of where we started. It's sort of the heart and soul of us. It's where we stay agile and productive. That means that we use those skill sets, and we can find deals, we can move on them very quickly. We've got good analytical people in our business. We know what we're doing. We generally get it right. We run mining services generally across. We started in crushing. We do crushing, processing, flotation. We also run mining fleets in specialized areas. We're not real big on that, unless it's one of our key clients where they're looking to get productivity and they're willing to pay for our services, and we have a number of them. And we have this very unique build-own-operate model that a lot have tried to replicate and copy around Australia over the last 20-or-so years, and they just for some reason, haven't really been able to nail it and get it. So it's a little bit like the Bunnings model for summary. We must have some trick in there that they can't see. But it produces a very long-term annuity cash flow, incredibly reliable business. Every time I look at doing something out there, whether it be a joint venture or going and doing a deal where we're mining. I'm forever looking at where the mining services part of that deal is because each part of it has to have that in services for us to make our model work. Lithium, we're in the top 5 global producers. We're going to do better than that over the next couple of years. We'll get bigger and better. We have got 2 of the most significant hard rock deposits on the planet. And I think that as time goes by, people will really get to realize what it means to have a Tier 1 mine even more importantly, sitting in a Tier 1 location. So Tier 1 locations don't exist, for example, in Africa. They don't exist in parts of Europe. They sure shouldn't exist down in South America because you can own those assets and your ownership can change and the rates change. So we're very fortunate that ours sits right here in WA. So we're progressing also in that area in the lithium, all of the spot that we produce, we're eventually going to turn it into hydroxide. We're well advanced on doing that now. I can't talk a lot about that at the moment. But at the AGM, we'll be able to give you a lot more news on that. In iron ore, top 5 producer. We're transitioning into long-life, low-cost operations. We're currently running about 20 million tonnes a year. Over the next 5 years we've got to move out to 90 million tonnes a year. A lot of people ask why we put money into iron ore? Why don't you put more into lithium? And the answer to that is really simple. We're going after lithium as hard as we can with securing as much as we can and whatever we get, we can fund. But just remember, the amount of cash that these iron ore mines they consistently pump out cash decade after decade. I mean they're an incredibly reliable business and where we're heading now. We finally got a balance sheet where we can go develop some iron ore assets that higher cost in terms of the capital spend but lower intensity per tonne, a good business. Our energy business, it's been around for a while. It basically looks after all the power that we run now goes out and buys the gas runs the power plants. Where we're heading now is into a different area, we've acquired land over the last few years. And the Perth Basin. So the Perth Basin is probably the most unexplored and the most prospective region in Australia for gas. So we're the largest holder in that region and also in the Carnarvon Basin. So that's sort of the business in a nutshell, that's what we do. Performance of the Mining Services business over the last 12 months. Again, it's been quite exceptional. I was road showing out in New York in 2019, we've done our first bond. And I said to them that over the next 2 to 2.5 years, we're going to double the Mining Services business and the common theme was that every time you grow a business like that, you melt away the margin. So I said not with us. I mean we have a unique model. So we've doubled that business and then a bit from '19 through to '22 and we've increased our margins by 14% and doing that. So quite an outstanding achievement. We've had record volumes over the last 12 months. We've retained 100% of our contracts, and we've added 5 new ones. So they're always a great performer. We're running 23 operating plants. Construction division inside our Mining Services business is very strong, the leadership have been in there for 15 to 22 years, leading that business and running it. And they can time and time again, we can go -- we can go build a plant at the number that we thought we could do it for because we got people that know what they're doing. They've recently recommissioned Wodgina trains 1 and 2, and they're almost there on Train 3. They're doing the upgrade, obviously, down at Mt Marion and they got a fairly big chore ahead of them. They're spread out right across from the case to 150,000 case in land and onsite. And they're getting ready to crank that up. Haulage part of the business in our mining service has been really busy to develop these big road trains. They're the largest road trains in the world. Our cost of moving dirt now is under $0.03 per tonne kilometer. And if you have a look at the capital cost of being able to put these things together compared to a heavy haul train system. I mean these things open up stranded deposits. So we've got about 25 of them running that we've developed over the last sort of 9 months. Again, they are one-off the first work with Kenworth to develop these big girls that pull them. We've actually had 1 in the ad the other day and we've got a hydrogen injection that goes on the side of the engines now. So we basically from what I understand, we kind of get some more, and we sort of inject it in the engine, and it gives us about a 30% fuel saving already. So we're working down that path. But big trucks, and they can move a lot. We have also had an organization of the U.S. working with us for about 18 months. We've actually got these big deals now they're autonomous, but we've still got drivers sitting in them. Over the next 12 months, those drivers will come out and will no longer have cabs on our track. So on Onslow Iron will be running Stage 1, about 150 of these big girls. And for that, you need about 550 drivers. So probably over 500 drivers will disappear. Obviously, a big saving, but you take the drivers out of trucks to the safety that it adds to them just goes to another level as well and consistency and running. And so a lot of good work done there. And also on the mining services we've started the marine division. We have got the first 4 of our 5 transhippers getting built. When we operate the onsite port, it will be our lowest cost port, even though we're running these transhippers, it will be lower cost than Esperance that will be lower than Kwinana and will be much, much lower than what we're running out of Port Hedland. So good result for us. Commodities on lithium has performed well. As you can see the average price of lithium going back a year ago is about 1,600 per tonne for spot and hydroxide was up to about 22,000 a tonne. Today, realistically, around about 6,000 a tonne, for a tonne of spodumene 6% and we're getting on all the tonnes we're selling on hydro. So we're getting plus USD 70,000 a tonne. I think last quarter, we averaged about 77%. So numbers are in good shape. All of the hydro -- sorry, all of our offtake now coming out of Mt Marion as of February, we're converting that into hydroxide, and we're doing that with the help of our friends from Ganfeng who are toll treating for us up in China and come to a really great commercial arrangement. I've got to acknowledge Ganfeng have been just a great partner from day 1 and very easy to work with. So Wodgina restarts going well, 1 and 2 are running. The first shipment of spot went out in July for conversion in -- over in China, the conversions, the responsibility of Albemarle. So what we're doing is that we're buying and building plants. And as quickly as we can, we want to be able to convert all of our hydroxide or spot that comes out of Wodgina over the years into hydroxide. Iron ore, we've had record tonnes, 19.2 million shipped, up 11%. Pricing has been challenging. If we go back a year and a bit ago, we were selling it like it was gold within about 69 days. We had the greatest crash in history of iron ore. So we went back to work. We thought on the verge of retirement, but the price disappeared from under us. And then it's sort of been up again and down. But it's okay the way it is. I mean if it hangs in the way it is, we'll be happy. I don't think that -- I don't think we're going to see it getting back down around at the $80 level. I shouldn't produce by saying it. I don't think it will. I mean, there is a lot of challenges out there on the supply side at the moment. So there's not as much iron ore running around the market as everyone perceives. [indiscernible] So as I said earlier, a great achievement, we've given that by the WA government. We converted that into a binding agreement on a supply chain with gone really well. And the early works have started on Onslow and in fact, we're getting into that in earnest. Energy. How do we go on Energy? We doubled our land holding. There was a tender coming out. So we had the large land holding in the Perth Basin, and we just went up and doubled it. We won the tender convincingly. And since then, every gas company in the country has approached us about being our partner. And the second thing we've done is we just got lucky. We've got some very talented people that looked at all the land and figured out if we drill a hole 4.25 deep, we should hit gas. And we did. We spent $15 million, and we've hit what they believe is the largest onshore discovery in Australia. And there's no doubt there's a lot of gas down there. We've got a lot of work to do on that. We're doing it now, doing test work. So more to happen down there. We think that we can bring our Red Gully plant that we've had in [indiscernible], bring that back into line over the next couple of years. And we've got a lot more work to do up and in the Carnarvon Basin as well. So that's the year that's been. Where are we heading over the next 5 years? We've got some projects that are locked in. We've got some great opportunities sitting in the beauty lineup. The first 1 that we're looking at, obviously, is I want to say, to be able to do what we're going to do over the next 5 years, it's a people thing. It's not money. I mean we can get money. It's not getting great opportunities. We've got all of those sitting and unit. It's just purely people. So in the next 5 years, we're going to go from 20 million to 90 million tonne of iron ore production. In 2 years, we'll be at 50 million tonnes. We're going to go over 100,000 tonnes of hydroxide production in our own right. Mining services, it will more than double. I mean if you just have a look at what we got locked away at the moment. I mean we're adding 3 major mining services contracts out of the Onslow region and crushing, tracking, transhipping. We've got the supply chain from Marion mine site to ship through Port Hedland. So huge numbers. We're going to be doing the 30- to 40-year contracts, and the thing that we need the most out of all of that is we're going to get people. We got to get them through the door. We got to do it in the right way, and we've got to make sure we get that retention. And we're going to go to -- we have already started. We're going to a different level than anyone's going to in the mining industry. We're going to be really innovative with this. When you walk into a head office, you'll think have lost the plot. But about 2 minutes later you'll go, this is the place you would want to work. We don't have anyone that wants to work from home. They all want to come to work. They love the experience. We're going to carry that forward into our camp. So typically, a room and a camp is about 12 square meters when we build on, so it's going to be about 30 square meters plus on suite, plus laundry, plus a balcony with a barbecue on the front of it. So we're looking at how do we get people to go there from a different area that we've recruited from. We're looking for couples, boyfriend, girlfriend, husbands, wives. I mean if the husband's a mechanic and the wife wants to do something. In about 8 weeks, we can put her through a training course and we can give her a job for about $120,000 to $140,000 a year. and they can live there as a couple, they can do 1 on one-off or 2 weeks on 2 off. So we're going to have a whole range of different opportunities to bring people to site. Young people can go out there and earn some good cash and go buy a house. Older folk can go up there and just make sure that they really secure their retirement. So I also want to get away from this thing, where the guys walk in the camp, they hang up their hobnailed boots, they dominate the wet mess, they drink [indiscernible], they throw darts. Here, we're going to have Olympic-sized pools in the camps. We're going to have restaurants. We're going to have taverns, very small taverns. We're going to have a lot of training on the site. We're going to get involved in sport, all those sort of things. So my concerns, mental health, safety of our female population. So I'm going to create a community, not a single men's quarter. So community is going to be full of couples. It's going to have a very different atmosphere and that we get some pretty average press on the safety of our women in our camp, our women and our camps are safe. They always have been. I can't guarantee at 100% when you consider the communities they're coming out of, they're not safe. And so they're much safer in my mine site than anywhere, but we're going to multiply that up. So I just want to let everyone know that a typical room that I would have spent $40,000 on last week. I'm probably going to spend $120 million on now. So it's going to be 3x the cost. But if you knew the cost of losing people and not having retention in your workforce and the missed opportunity on production is -- sorry, the room costs and what we're doing in the camps in absolute pit as to where we're going. So I'll explain that a little bit more shortly. So I wanted just to be prepared for that because it's really important. So operations where we're going over the next 5 years, iron ore to our point, it's pretty much going to be business as usual. We're going to run about 11 million tonnes out of the year. It's coming out of Wonmunna and Iron Valley. Later down the track in years to come will probably open up Lamp, Creek and Wedge. There are other opportunities out there for us. But look, as long as that Utah Point thing makes money, I'll keep it running. It doesn't make a heap of things, it's a high-cost operation, but it's like a cat with 9 lives that just keeps surviving. So as long as it does that, I'll keep doing that. The Yilgarn, again, it's sort of high cost. We're running -- we're going to be running about 7 million tonne a year down there for the next 4 years. We're running hematite out of there. It's challenging again. It's 15 pits that we're running, north to south, they're spread over 200 kilometers. So we're bringing them into a central hub processing them, and then we're shipping them about 600 kilometers south to Esperance on rail. Where we are going with the Yilgarn, the upside in that is that we have got an awful lot of magnetite down there. So I'm going to transition out of the hematite over the next 3 to 4 years, and it will be a full-on magnetite operation. I can see us getting to a good solid 15 million tonnes of magnetite coming out of there, about 67% if it's up the top of where you want to be in terms of quality. And then if you combine that with where we're going with gas. I mean, we'll have gas that's probably going to cost us about $1 a gigajoule. I want to be able to get power down there. I've got the lowest-cost gas in the world. If I can palletize my magnetite. It's a much greener product. It's dust free, and it's going to go to places like Korea and Japan into specialty mills. So I can see a 30-year-plus operation in that, and we've already got a great supply chain. So that's where I'll be going with that. It's one that all might certainly happen. The Pilbara hub. So as I said earlier, we won the right to develop the South West Creek berth. We've married in with Hancock, and we've got the approval process is running. We've got a binding agreement with them. We're going to develop a 40 million tonne supply chain up there at rail and port. Great partners. We've known Hancock for a long time. They're an exceptionally good organization to work for. With high-quality people. So that's going to be a great opportunity. We're going to develop Marion. It's 50-50 between MinRes and Brockman. And we'll haul that down and put it into ships. It's about a 30-year mine life, 20 million tonne run rate, about 60.5% or so good product. About 2 years to do the development and get the approvals done and then about another 2 to 2.5 years to go do the build. So no real money to spend there until the Ashburton sort of in operation. So a bit more detail here around the Ashburton as I said, finally on Friday night after many years, and I'd hate to think how many thousands of manhours I put into this, but this is the toughest joint venture deal I've ever put together, but it's 3 good partners, POSCO, AMCI and Baowu from China. So we've got good partners in there. It's transformation. It's low risk. It's a long, long-term project. There's over 3 billion tonnes of ore out in that region. We'll be there for a long time. Stage 1, 30 million tonne design. All of the equipment we're putting in there has the capability of doing about 35 million, 36 million. It will do 35 million when it's running. Stage 2, we can easily kick it up to 55 million without spending a heater beans. So the project has been structured. We're MinRes are the managers. They're the manager of everything. So we're the managers of providing funding, design, build it and then once it's built we're the operators. So in terms of funding it, we go up, went 40% to 57% of the project. The project pays that money back to us out of cash flow. We've got a formula in there how we -- so we get that money back relatively quickly. And then we got another 3.3% shareholding through our ownership Aquila. So the way we've broken this up is we've got what we call MineCo, MineCo is owned by the JV. MineCo owns the iron ore, the tenements, the pit, everything inside the gate where the miners, the camp, the airstrip. We will operate that when the ore goes through the gate, it goes down privately owned haul road into Onslow, into storage and on to a transshipping wharf. All of that's the [indiscernible], that owned 100% by MinRes. We charge a unit rate for the use of that forever. And then the third part of it is that we got 3 mining services contracts actually for. We've got the crushing, the haulage, we got the port management and then we got the transhipping. So in a nutshell, it's got all of the recipe that MinRes like. We've got the management control of it. We're going to get this thing built fast. We're going to be efficient. We've got the mining services carved out of it. And the reason that -- the Mining Services, adds a huge benefit to our clients. It's not like we go and make our margin, which we do. But no one else has got a next-gen plant. For us to go and put one of our plants on site, capital cost of putting our plant there is about 1/3 of putting the traditional plant. That reflects in the rate. Yes, we make good profit and make no excuse for that. But also our client gets it for a listed cost than they can get it for. Otherwise, the trucks without the traction, the transhippers, this project would never go. So it didn't -- it couldn't afford the traditional cape carrier berth, 20 miles of dredging and heavy haul rail, it can stand this. So we bring a lot of benefit to our joint venture partners. And yes, we do. We always make money in our Mining Services, and we're proud of the margin that we make. We just don't like to share it. So look, just a brief, central hub, 150ks in land, the central hub, the main feeder pit is going to be [indiscernible] there. That's where we put everything. We put one of these resort style camps in airport right beside the camp. The cost of [ MineCo ], we've got a number against that fixed price for us to do that, $1.3 billion. As I said, MinRes funded and the money comes back out of the surplus out of the iron ore. And the mine cost of MineCo, operating costs -- or sorry, the cost of iron ore FOB on slot is about AUD 32 a tonne. That is inclusive of the MinRes Mining Services margins as well. So take note of that. Baowu have given a commitment they want to market at least 50% of MinRes' share of the iron ore, and they've got an option over another 25% of it. So I think they'll most likely do that, and I'm more than happy for Baowu to be hauling all our dirt into China for the next 50 years. Mining Services, I think you got a good growth of that. The infrastructure, as I said, we own it forever. We charge a fixed rate per tonne. Same with the Mining Services. It's based on charging a fixed rate based on 30 million tonnes. If I do 35, 36, even up to 55, it's still charge the same rate. Under normal conditions, those rates diminish. In this case, they don't. Same with the infrastructure. I mean, I charge that for -- as many times it goes over the road, and I charge it for the next, whatever, 100 years, so another great asset for us to own. Total projects about a $3 billion spend. Capital intensity is about USD 65 a tonne, but that kind of includes everything. A good solid 20% internal rate of return. If the price of iron ore, the indices is around $75. So energy, getting towards the end, we've got a lot of gas, and it's going to be a very substantial earner for MinRes going forward. I mean I think there's a lot of opportunity out there and what we can do with it. There's opportunities to convert it into LNG. Personally, I'm a strong believer that I think gas is going to be around in the market for the next 40 or 50 years. I think a lot of people have forgotten that. We certainly want to get it really carbon out of the atmosphere, but it's got to be staged. There's a lot of third world countries out there that can't stop using coal, for example. If they stop using coal, they'll freeze, they'll die. They don't have the capital. I mean it's like Australia when we were -- before we came a first-world country, we went out there, we burned coal. We chopped down all the trees and burned everything that we could. And then we become first world, and now we're a really, really good people. But to get here, it gets there at a cost. So I think coal is going to be burned for decades to come. I think the world is trying to get rid of it, but it's a long way down the track. I think gas is a transitional fuel, and I think that we're going to use gas for our own power. Obviously, we're probably going to use gas if we can convert it to LNG and go sell it, and we're certainly going to do downstreaming wherever we can, where we add value. So I think we'll end up with 40 or 50 years of gas up in that Perth Basin. We're going to put about $100 million worth of holes down over the next 12 months and go find some more. That Lockyer Deep has no doubt, it's a large deposit. We think we're probably going to bring that Red Gully plant that we got up there, we inherited. We'll bring that back online in the next couple of years. And we've got a lot of work to do out there. Lithium, just a few notes on lithium. The governments generally are putting policies in place around the world, and they really want electric vehicles to be a large part of the transition away from all the nasty fuels that we're burning. It's going to be a game changer. They're already well on the way. In the last couple of years, we've just seen them going from a couple of car companies doing electric cars to pretty much everyone. If you're not building electric cars, you're probably not going to stay in business long. The global car companies, they are definitely responding. They're targeting to have at least 60 million EVs by about 2030. They're always understating the number of cars they need on the road, the amount of power storage that's needed about every quarter. There's new numbers that come out. We identified back in 2010 that lithium is certainly going to be a metal of the future. And it's going to have an important place in the world. There is no alternative for lithium at the moment, and it can't be replaced. It's one of the few commodities out there that has got really good visibility, and that's -- I don't understand with a lot of the analysts. I mean, if you get a little thing called Google, you can get on there and it will tell you how many cars they're going to make this year, next year and the year after, and we'll tell you where the producers are with rock and brine. It's not a hard equation, but we're in supply deficit at the moment, and it feels that it's going to stay there through to at least 2030. The hard rock is probably the better source of lithium. I think that generally speaking, the battery manufacturers get much more power retention in the hard rock batteries. And the best place to find it in the world is in WA. We've got most of it so we're in a good spot. The price outlook for it. And again, I read that article a few weeks ago from Goldman Sachs, and you just got to wonder what they were smoking. But if you have a look at this chart here, that's us. If you're down in the black and you own rock in the ground, you're God. If you're in that other space and you don't own your rock, you literally, you're screwed by us, and it's a really good place to be. I mean I haven't been there very often. I've been on the other end. But right now, I feel really, really good about this. So in simple maths, you need about 7 tonne of hydroxide of that spot to make a tonne of hydroxide around 6%. It currently sells at the moment for about USD 6,500 a tonne, do the math. Chuck about another 4,500, 5,000 at that for reagents, labor and capital, and that's what it costs you to make a tonne of hydroxide. So over half the hydroxide around the world has made by people that don't own rock in the ground. So if I go to what the analysts say the long-term consensus price outlook for hydroxide is at $16,500 a tonne. That means that all those guys in the blue are out of business. That means there's a huge supply problem. I like it. Again, we're in the right place at the right time. So I just think that -- you have a look at California come out of the blue last week and said by 2035, no more combustion engines on the road. And you go, "Yes, that's sensible." But none of that is factored into the numbers that people are looking at in terms of where the supply is coming from. So look, I just think I'm not trying to pump our tires up, but I just think we're in a really, really good place. We've got great lithium, great partners. Both partners know how to make hydroxide, and they're making it. So I'm very hopeful that we're going to do a lot of good things with this part of the business. Mt Marion asset, it's a great asset. We have been down there since 2010. We own half of it. We designed it. We built it. We've got a great partner in Ganfeng. We're doubling production down there at the moment. We're going to 900,000 tonnes. It's mixed grade. So what we do is that we scavenge last bit of the lithium out of the product. So it's not all 6%. But if you went 900,000 tonnes back to 600,000 tonnes of 6% equivalent, we're spending $120 million down there on -- just on improvement on recoveries, and we're just growing the plant and growing the camp. So about $120 million, it gives us an awful lot of white powder, and it's a great return. So all our share of that goes into hydroxide up in China and we sell it. Finally MARBL, MARBL Joint Venture, that's the JV between MinRes and Albemarle. They decided to call it MARBL, which is a mixture of Min and Alb, nothing difficult with that. So we've just restructured that JV. So what it means now is on the Wodgina site, we've gone back to a 50-50 joint venture, MinRes run the mine. We run the whole process out there. We've throttled back from Kemerton from 45% to 15%. And then we are jointly funding all the future development going forward in terms of hydroxide. We're looking at a couple of plants offshore, buying 1 and building 1, well advanced. That's all in hand and started. The 1 that I'm very keen on, I want to build at Wodgina. I think I build at Wodgina for less than I can build up in Asia, and we're about 80% of the way through that study. We've done a lot of work on it, and it just makes a lot of common sense. If I can get it for the same capital cost here in Australia at Wodgina, I've got the cheapest power in the world. We own the gas. I've got great water supply. We've got total control over the whole thing. It's a great site. My people go in there. They go and they do 2 weeks on, 2 off. I've got them held total captive. So once they're on site, I own them. It's a good place to be. So we'll get our costs down fairly low there. The other thing that we've done is that a while back, Albemarle had all the marketing rights, so they could market it whoever they wanted for whatever price they wanted. So part of the trade down on -- the sell-down on Kemerton was that I want control back of my pricing. So they're still going to sell our product, but they sell it under our model. So we have combined indices that we want them to sell it. So whatever the indices is on the day when we load the chip, that's what they'll pay. Very much like iron ore. When you load a tonne of iron ore on a ship, it's that number that's published. So what I don't like to do, I don't like to hedge any of our commodity or any of our dollar. We just take the price of the day. So I think Albemarle asked me what I'm going to do 1 day when it all turns around and there's more supply than demand, and I said I'll do what I always do, I'll change. But in the meantime, while it's supply short, we're going to take advantage of the price on the way up. And I am fairly convinced that I've got 5 to 7 years of that. So Wodgina, it's probably close on the best deposit out there in the world. It's opened at depth. It's opened in 3 directions. We've got it back into operation. It's running well. And as I said, it's -- my preference is to build up the, say, I mean it's just a great asset at Wodgina. We're probably between now and the end of the middle of next year, and it will be pumping a lot of product. So our 5-year plan for lithium. Almost, there it is. So in about 5 years, we land at about 118,000 tonnes of hydroxide. That's sort of where we're aiming to get to. And we're also -- we're looking around the world to make sure if there's any other opportunities out there on lithium we're keen. So I feel that's sort of a minimum of where we're going to be. I mean, I don't know where the development of Wodgina ends, but I mean, it can handle another 3 or 4 trains on top of what it's got now with a lot of ease. We'll see how that develops. We've got a joint venture partner, and we bring product on in line with some demand. The last part on our electric part of our business, I've got to really desire to develop battery manufacturing here in WA. I think it's logical. I think we have all the resources here. And what I really like to do is see how much of the value I can capture. I mean, we can go from, obviously, digging rock out of the ground and turning into spot, and we can turn that into hydroxide. That's just purely value adding. It's capturing all the value. I don't think there's any risk in us going down the path of manufacturing batteries here because, again, the one thing we've got that most others don't have is that we got surety of supply. So if we own the supply, we can command the terms and conditions. We've got cheap energy in terms of our gas. And I think if we want to create jobs for our kids, it's really smart that we do it. In most of the battery factories, I mean they're not overly labor intensive, but we should be able to make a very high-quality battery here. All I have to do is go and get a battery manufacturer to come over here with the technology and a big bag of cash and we can add surety of supply. And our vision is to see if we can make that work over the next couple of years. So we're certainly going to be out there being in the drums. We spoke to the government about it, and they think that it's not a bad idea and they're very happy to support us. So the last page, and then I'll get out of here. I said earlier, it was our 30th birthday recently. We started in my lounge with $10,000. We've gone through the list at about 450 people on the payroll in 2006 and about $100 million market cap. Today, we've gone to over 5,000 people. We're on the ASX 50. We got a market cap north of $12 billion. Our track record since listing, total assets have gone up 50x to almost $8 billion. So that's 30% per annum growth. 21% average return on capital per annum. $7.4 billion in EBITDA, we've grown that by 25% per annum. No equity raises. So I haven't [indiscernible] my shareholders down. We haven't gone out and issued shares and taken the easy way up. Fully franked dividends, growth of about 20%, 30% per annum of total shareholder return, and we are the best TSR performance on the whole of the ASX and aiming to get to the 1 spot position. Over the next 3 years, our business will double. When we get 5 years out beyond that, I think we'll probably double it again. So that's pretty much with what we've got in hand with the funding that we've got and the quality of people we got. That's about as much as I can tell you on where the business is going. So thanks for joining us. And if you got any questions, Mark will join me up here and try and answer of anything you've got. Sorry. We got another little video. We've got some great people in-house that we're using them for recruitment and all sorts of things. Photographer, Russell James, you may have heard of him. He used to be the guy that photographed all of the Victoria's Secrets, all the super models around the world. He -- he lives in Perth. He does our mine sites and videos, and they're doing a lot of work around our branding, which has really done a huge amount for our business. So we really want to make sure that we're a respected company as we go forward as well. The only difference now is we get to keep the close on. But I got to say, I have been in L.A. with Russell a couple of times and bumped into our Alessandra Ambrosio, and then [indiscernible] and it's not a bad experience. So roll the video. [Presentation]

Unknown Executive

executive
#5

[Operator Instructions] I'll now hand to Mr. [ Ellis ] to take questions from the room.

Mitch Ryan

analyst
#6

Mitch Ryan from Jefferies. You've outlined the long-term strategy for lithium and spodumene. And more specifically, Wodgina. I guess, at the fourth quarter, you had produced and shipped tonnes from Wodgina but not yet booked doses revenue. Can you give us any update on where those tonnes are and if you booked any revenue from at this point in time?

Christopher Ellison

executive
#7

So there's a bit of a lag with -- when we move into hydroxide. So we've got from and from get them down to the birth, put them on a ship. They're all heading for China at the moment, and they are getting converted in China. We then have to go and sell that product, then we can book the sale. So it's quite a lead time. Mark, do you want to add to it?

Mark Wilson

executive
#8

Sure. Thanks, Mitch. The whole logistics chain around moving the spot through China to the converters that using at this point a little bit slower. So you need to add a few months for that process. And then there's the conversion process. And then there's the sale process, including the logistics of the sale, delivery to the customer. And then there's the payment terms from the customer to Albemarle. So it adds months to the process, we will be booking in this half, though.

Rahul Anand

analyst
#9

Rahul Anand, Morgan Stanley. So with the announcement today, I just wanted to check on a couple of things. Firstly, you've called it Stage 1. So I want to touch upon that perhaps. I believe the whole system at the moment will probably be constrained by the haulage on the road. Is that a fair assumption? And what kind of capacity you can the port do? Because I'm trying to think about Bungaroo South, how those look going forward as well?

Christopher Ellison

executive
#10

Yes. Look, the constraints probably going to be around the transhipping. That will probably be the bottleneck, not hard to add more trucks on the road. I mean we could double the number of trucks on the road very easily. Then we would just have to manage the port storage. I'm thinking to go to from 35 to 55 almost certainly going to have to put more storage in at the port because, I mean we've developed this whole thing on the basis that it's totally dust-free. So the ore doesn't see the lighter date from when it goes in the trucks until it goes into the cape carriers offshore. But look, I think the answer is, there'll be more tracks pretty easy to bring them online. It will be a different crushing plant in a different location. So we'd be outside [ against ] Baowu. The road will easily handle it. Different storage shed probably even different products. So we want to keep them segregated. And then I probably need to add about another 3 transhippers.

Rahul Anand

analyst
#11

Okay. Perfect. And just one follow-up. In the announcement, there was a mention about Bungaroo South and Kumina last time, which had perhaps the ability to not have to pay royalties. How is that to be -- how is that going to be going forward? Is that a combined package now and you have to pay the royalty on these assets? Or if you develop them in the future, you don't have to pay any?

Christopher Ellison

executive
#12

No, we have to pay the royalties.

Rahul Anand

analyst
#13

Okay. It would still be paid. Okay. Perfect.

Christopher Ellison

executive
#14

We did have a holiday down in that region for 30 million tonnes. But somewhere down the track sadly, that runs out, and I haven't been able to renew it.

Glyn Lawcock

analyst
#15

Chris, it's Glyn Lawcock, Barrenjoey. Just interested a little bit more. If you could -- you mentioned about toll treating downstream through the JV. So it's the downstream 50-50 JV for Wodgina, not just going to be through jointly owned or Albemarle owned facilities? Just a little bit curious because I assume you can probably ramp Wodgina up faster than you can build downstream conversions. So I'm just -- that was...

Christopher Ellison

executive
#16

So what's going to happen is that we're going to do a combination of buying plants and upgrading them and building plants. So I mean, that's actually coming into progress. In the meantime, we're also out there using toll treaters. So we're obviously upfront, we're going to be producing more spot than we can treat because we don't have the plants for it. And we may -- look, we may use toll treaters long term. So...

Glyn Lawcock

analyst
#17

But if you -- can you sell spot if you can't find a toll treater? Or is that part...

Christopher Ellison

executive
#18

Yes. No, we have an agreement with them that if we're producing more spot, then we can either told treat or got put through our plants, we're going to wake it into the market and sell it. Yes, we've agreed to do that.

Glyn Lawcock

analyst
#19

And Train 3 seems to be slipping a little bit. It was sort of like now you're talking about mid next year. Is that still in line with the decision before Christmas?

Christopher Ellison

executive
#20

Yes, yes. It's about -- so Train 3 needs more tailings, facility storage, more water to come online. We've got to double the mining fleet. Getting mining fleet nowadays, you just don't get it over the calendar. It's about mid-next year when we've got all those issues addressed. We're going to have Train 3 commission, I'd say, within the next 3 or 4 weeks. What we're going to do is we'll rotate the train. So at any given time, we'll have 2 of the 3 running. So there's -- if we need maintenance, like we do on Train 1, it needs some work done on the BOO mill. So we'll put that down and bring Train 3 and run just to make sure they're all match fit, but we just don't have the downstream capacity to run all 3 at once. But we will get there, but it's about 8 or 9 months away.

Glyn Lawcock

analyst
#21

Okay. And then just switching to Ashburton so you want to call it. Just two quick ones. Just the quality of the product, I think that showed 57%, 57.3%. What sort of pricing do you think that will attract? What are you expecting?

Christopher Ellison

executive
#22

It's about -- it's going to average about 58% over the first 7 or 8 years. The pricing, what do you think the plant is looking like...

Glyn Lawcock

analyst
#23

Is that just going to be sort of sold against the 58 index in? Is that what you sort of could probably get that?

Christopher Ellison

executive
#24

Yes.

Glyn Lawcock

analyst
#25

Okay. And then just dollars per tonne on the contracts, you're going to run or [indiscernible] to 140 million tonnes, a bit more than I thought. You said a couple of bucks a tonne you can clip on that.

Christopher Ellison

executive
#26

Always. We always get our share of that. Were you going to add something, Mark?

Mark Wilson

executive
#27

No, I wasn't going to add anything to that, Chris.

Paul Young

analyst
#28

Paul Young from Goldman Sachs. First question is on -- well, actually, just on the joint ventures. First of all, well done getting those 3 partners aligned on Ashburton. I mean, that took you a long time. I know and they are Tier 1 partners. I'm interested in 2 things. One is that on the fact that you're funding your partner share of capital to get it into first production. So I'd love to hear your thoughts or maybe, Mark, around why that was the case is because Baosteel does not want to actually physically put money into Australia at the moment. Is that it? And secondly, with Baosteel taking the offtake, I mean, they're clearly interested in this product, and they're taking 50% of the offtake and it's low grade. So just curious about with your discussions with Baosteel, what is their view on the market? Is this a diversification strategy away from the majors? Or is the fact that they see the iron ore market tied to the long run?

Christopher Ellison

executive
#29

No, look, on the marketing first, Baosteel, because they own part of the project. They want to be seen to be able to use that product back in China. But they like the product. They simply like it. So they're going to take -- if you take 35 million tonnes, 60% of that is ours. So they want 50% of ours, plus they've got an option to take another 25% and they're saying that almost certainly will do that. Plus, they take 100% of their own allocation. So they're probably sitting up at about -- if they talk all of ours and all of theirs, they're sitting at about 82% of the product they'll take. They like it.

Paul Young

analyst
#30

Okay. Great. And then just on the funding and how that came about with respect to...

Christopher Ellison

executive
#31

Oh, look, the funding was easy. There's a mechanism in there that said he who funded has got another 7%, 9% of the project forever. It was a no-brainer. So we funded it, and we get the funds back fairly quickly when the project goes into operation. The other side of that, too, is that it gives us total control as managers. So now that it's approved, we're in total control. We go out, raise the funds, we have the funds and we just go build it at our speed. And we don't have a committee from 3 joint venture partners overlooking us and giving us approvals to do everything. We've got a fixed price which we're good at. I mean, pretty much every project we've ever built like for FMG or Rio Tinto or any of those guys, we always -- we're only interested in doing it on a fixed lump sum. We're not interested in doing reimbursable.

Paul Young

analyst
#32

And then on the gas, pretty unbelievable discovery it seems. And you said it's the largest onshore discovery. So you must have a number, at least a minimum number, that maybe you can point to in that regard? And then so I'd be interested in your views around how we get to first resource, the size of it? And then you said you're being approached by big gas companies. So what's your thoughts high level around how you monetize this to your JV?

Christopher Ellison

executive
#33

What I'd like to do basically is I want to build a gas plant to it. So we're looking at it now. We've got to do some more development holes around it. So we step those holes out, and it will grow. At the same time, we're getting our development approvals in place. I'd like to be able to have a gas plant operating there by, let's say, no longer than '24. So the opportunities with that, the -- I like what like Beach and Mitsui are doing. They've got a pretty good deal. Woodside have got capacity to turn gas into LNG fairly economically. I'm going to power all of our plants that we've got. So I shouldn't be much more than about $1 a gigajoule in cost on my own gas internally. I want to be able to turn magnetite into pellets. I mean, that adds a huge amount of value and whatever else.

Paul Young

analyst
#34

[indiscernible].

Christopher Ellison

executive
#35

Good question. I need to get a bit more information on it. We were thinking about a 250 terajoule a day plant was sort of day 1.

Mark Wilson

executive
#36

We're looking at a modular design that we can scale up because we know that there's a lot more gas there. This wasn't the most prospective hole that we dug first.

Lachlan Shaw

analyst
#37

So just a couple of questions on Wodgina, from me, Lachlan Shaw from UBS. So just firstly, on your thoughts and your comments around onshore processing, Chris. So I get the gases, but what about reagents and waste handling? And I guess, what are you thinking in terms of timing for when you might look to start construction and ultimately get that capacity up at Wodgina?

Christopher Ellison

executive
#38

So you're talking about hydroxide at Wodgina?

Lachlan Shaw

analyst
#39

Yes.

Christopher Ellison

executive
#40

So reagents are fairly simple. We'll import them all in Port Hedland and they're building lump sum point out there that will facilitate that. All of the waste is pretty much that comes out of these plants is totally inert. We've done a lot of test work on that through what we're doing in Kemerton, and that waste can actually be used for a whole range of different things. Road base is an easy one, so not an issue with that. But the facilities that we got at Wodgina, we've got good water out there. We've got a large gas pipeline that comes in. I mean, we've got enough gas capacity to be able to fire that thing. And the good thing about having it at Wodgina means when we control the energy cost for the next 30 or 40 years, we're not going to get a spike like you're seeing in all over the world at the moment. Urea plants, anything that's operating on gas, are going out of business because of the cost of energy. So I just think that we got the total package there. And I think it's NWA. And if we can keep growing downstream in WA, we're creating jobs and future for our kids. Chemical plants that we're putting kids through uni, I mean I want somewhere for them to go. So we could be, in those areas, we may not be the best in the world at making cars. But all of these products that we're producing, we got to do a lot better than just sell the rock.

Lachlan Shaw

analyst
#41

And then just on timing, I mean do you have a sense of how that might play out?

Christopher Ellison

executive
#42

I would like to be talking sooner rather than later because the easy way out for me is I went and got partners that knew what they're doing with hydroxide, I don't have to take a risk on that, and I'm happy with the partners I've got to do battery manufacturing. We've just got to go find someone. I mean -- and they all -- I mean, I get calls from car companies regularly because they want surety of supply. I mean -- and they're happy to pay market price. They just got to know that they can get it. So if I can get someone that wants to make batteries, and I think we'll get a bunch of them, they don't care where they make them as long as they guaranteed supply. But I also want them to bring the funding. I think we'd get a free carry on our half of the funding.

Lachlan Shaw

analyst
#43

Yes. Okay. Great. And then just a second one. So going back upstream to spodumene at Wodgina, so 6%. How are you thinking about the balance, 6% versus 5.5%, 5% for more volume coming through the plant?

Christopher Ellison

executive
#44

We've done a lot of work on that. And across both the operations and the dropping it down to about 5.5%, it gives you more lithium unit recovery. So we sell more lithium units, it's a better value proposition. So we will probably eventually hit in that direction. We've just got to make sure that the plants at the other end are adjusted to take it.

Matthew Frydman

analyst
#45

Matt Frydman from MST here. A couple of questions. Firstly, on the Mining Services business. You're guiding to flat Mining Services volumes year-on-year, which I guess is a little bit different to some of your prior overarching guidance of volume growth in that business. I'm wondering if you can give a bit more detail on some of the moving parts there? I noticed, internally, you're guiding to lower sales from the Yilgarn, which is obviously a pretty important driver of at least internal Mining Services volumes. But maybe there are offsetting factors externally. So wondering if there are any opportunities for growth in FY '23 that you see and might be working through, but haven't factored into that guidance? Or otherwise, what are the key moving parts to that flat guidance?

Mark Wilson

executive
#46

So we see significant opportunity externally. As Chris said, there are some real challenges in the industry at the moment around supply. And because of our agility, we offer a solution that others -- well, really, there aren't many other choices, but we have this great record with the majors working with them. So we see a lot of opportunity externally. The reason you're seeing that overall guidance number flat is because strips coming off on the projects that we're working at quite considerably. And as you say, combined with the lower tonnes out of Yilgarn, we're seeing the internal tonnage dropping considerably.

Matthew Frydman

analyst
#47

Got it. Maybe another one for you. Wondering how you think about the right level of gearing or debt on the balance sheet? If we look forward to FY '23, you're spending $2 billion in CapEx, that's without any new conversion assets in the MARBL JV. It does seem like gearing will start to creep up even if your operating cash flows are pretty strong. So just broadly, what level of debt or gearing are you guys comfortable with? And where would you have to start considering the timing of projects or the timing of spend if you reached a certain threshold?

Mark Wilson

executive
#48

We finished the year about 3x -- 3.1x on gross debt to EBITDA, and that was including 6 months of almost no EBITDA. So as I said earlier, when we run the full 12 months and even on a rolling 12-month basis by December, that ratio is going to come down significantly. We feel very comfortable with quality of the assets that we have and the ability to delever quickly with them to be able to hold this debt. We don't anticipate needing to go and raise further debt at this point.

Unknown Executive

executive
#49

We might just go to the phones, if there are any questions. Moderator, Darcy?

Operator

operator
#50

Your first phone question comes from Hayden Bairstow from Macquarie.

Hayden Bairstow

analyst
#51

A couple from me, Chris, just on the iron ore business. Just keen to understand, you sort of talked about the availability of mining fleet. You've downgraded these assets a little bit on volume. But if we do see weaker iron ore prices, is there options to do that even more aggressively and shift some of the gear to Wodgina out of Iron Valley and stuff like that?

Christopher Ellison

executive
#52

Yes. Yes, there is -- we -- I don't see that happening, Hayden. I mean our main -- the main fleet we're hunting at the moment is certainly for Wodgina, and we're going to start gearing up for Onslow Iron as well. And I mean, Onslow Iron has got pretty good returns with it. But yes, look, the answer is we can easily move that around. I mean, if we had to back off on a mine site like Iron Valley, we could easily move that and accommodate that into Onslow Iron and probably wouldn't fit in Wodgina. I mean we're going for bigger equipment in there.

Hayden Bairstow

analyst
#53

Okay. Great. And on the downstream hydroxide at Wodgina, I mean, you're comfortable you can convince Albemarle that you can build a much, much lower cost than they've just delivered at Kemerton?

Christopher Ellison

executive
#54

Hayden, your wife could do that.

Mark Wilson

executive
#55

I think to be fair, Hayden, there was a period of COVID, which impacted quite considerably right? And I think the supply chain disruptions have had a significant impact on that cost. We don't expect to have those going forward.

Hayden Bairstow

analyst
#56

And just the final one for me, just on the rest of the sort of downstream within MARBL. I mean, at what point do we think we'll get clarity on where they might be? I mean Albemarle has obviously talked about a fair bit of capacity in China. Is that still the most likely location for at all? Or is there other parts of the Southeast Asia you're looking at?

Christopher Ellison

executive
#57

No. I think our eyes are wide open on a few locations. We're not wed to any particular country. We're doing some sort of -- I mean, obviously, we're looking hard at Wodgina at the moment, but we're also looking at a couple of other regions as well. I mean, labor availability is always a key factor. Cost of energy going forward is always important. But look, there's probably about 4 different locations that we're running the rollover right now.

Unknown Executive

executive
#58

Darcy will take one more from the phone.

Operator

operator
#59

Your next question comes from Lyndon Fagan of JPMorgan.

Lyndon Fagan

analyst
#60

The first question is just on the toll trading. Obviously, an amazing 30% EBITDA margin there. I'm just wondering if you could give us some insight into the toll charge itself. Is that a percentage link? Or is it $1 million charge? I'm just wondering how it changes with price? If prices go down, is it still a 30% margin?

Mark Wilson

executive
#61

Sorry, Lyndon, you're talking about Mt Marion?

Lyndon Fagan

analyst
#62

Yes, that's right.

Mark Wilson

executive
#63

Yes. So with Mt Marion, as Chris said, we've got this wonderful partnership with Ganfeng. And basically, we've developed a formula that accommodates the mixed blend of our grades. So it scales depending on the grade that goes through and it varies from ship to ship. You'll see in the new year -- sorry, in the FY '23 guidance, we've guided higher volumes. We're capturing more lithium units, as Chris said, but we're thinking that about 40% of that product will be higher grade. So you could expect that compared to the first half, where we had much less high grade, that the cost will come down relative to last half. There's no -- there's a combination of dollars and ratio per tonne of feed. So there's no simple formula I can give you, I'm sorry.

Lyndon Fagan

analyst
#64

Mark, maybe just to follow up on that. So at a much lower price, is it possible to sort of talk about how the toll margins would look? Just to be able to give us a sense of -- everyone is forecasting lower prices long term, how would that sort of earnings stream look at a lower price?

Mark Wilson

executive
#65

Everyone except us, we don't think the prices will be lower long term. And we think there's a compelling reason why that's the case. But anyway, if you believe in your world that they'll go lower, we still think we're in reasonable space there. The cost of the spod coming down, we'll come down as well. We'll still be making good margin. The one thing that's great -- or one of the many things that's great about the relationship with Ganfeng is that we can pivot it quickly if we need to.

Lyndon Fagan

analyst
#66

Okay. And then just another question on the Wodgina cost guidance. You mentioned it will be producing at 20% below Mt Marion over the longer term. But how quickly do those operating costs come down? If we're looking into '24, '25, and is it -- I imagine we're not instantly below Mt. Marion or any sort of color on that would be helpful.

Mark Wilson

executive
#67

You can imagine when we're running 3 trains in steady state, that's when we're running at a reasonable indication close to life of mine, plus or minus, depending on the year and the strip. So we need 3 trains to be running steady state to get to those sorts of numbers. These -- you should expect the numbers to come down though from this half. This is a start-up half. We're not capitalizing the costs. So there are inefficiencies. We've staffed up at Wodgina to get ready for 3 trains. So we're carrying overhead and so on up there for that reason. So if you think in those terms, that should help.

Unknown Executive

executive
#68

We've got time for 1 more question.

Lyndon Fagan

analyst
#69

And just -- Sorry, I was going to sneak another one in. You're now guiding for 20% of lump at both Utah and Yilgarn. I remember some previous comments around moving away from lump. Is that now -- is that unique to FY '23? Or is it -- should we now be thinking about 20% lump going forward?

Mark Wilson

executive
#70

I think you can well, sorry, let me go back and say we've adapted to meet the market and we've moved the equipment around to be able to flex for the product that's coming out of the pits. At this stage, you should assume that there's lump going forward.

Unknown Executive

executive
#71

We've got time one more on the floor here, and then we'll have to close it up.

Rahul Anand

analyst
#72

Rahul again here from Morgan Stanley. Look, just continuing on that lithium tolling arrangement, how should we think about the longevity really is what I want to touch upon? You've obviously got a short-term contract in place right now for Mt Marion. How are the conversations looking to extend that further with whilst keeping your capital light and being able to extract some of that margin for a long period of time? That's the first one. I'll come back with a second.

Christopher Ellison

executive
#73

Okay. So on that -- I mean, we've got options on that, obviously. I mean we can kicked that out for a period of time. We're just trying to balance that with what's the longer term that we want. Do we want to own our own plant? Or -- and how long will that take to build? So we're just working through that, and we're working through that with Ganfeng. So we'll keep doing what we're doing. But my guess is we'll keep doing what we're doing for another couple of years. And in the meantime, we'll probably go and put something in place and probably jointly with them, but that will be for the long term.

Rahul Anand

analyst
#74

Okay. That's very helpful. And then the second one on lithium was around the Wodgina stake. You talked about it briefly in your presentation. How are those conversations progressing? Is there any sort of time line that you have in terms of converting that, the extra 10%?

Christopher Ellison

executive
#75

Yes. I mean I think it would be true to say that we've got an effective date that we've agreed on. And all we're doing is we're going through the Albemarle process on getting to binding documentation. It's tedious, lengthy and detailed.

Rahul Anand

analyst
#76

Okay. Perfect. Final one. Iron Valley. There was a mention of Lamb Creek and Wedge. I just wanted to know, are you in that area right now and perhaps getting some tonnes out? Or that hasn't been opened up at all and that's purely in the future?

Christopher Ellison

executive
#77

No, that's in the future. We've been in there and doing our thing getting ready to do something in there. But it's a few years away yet. I think, look, I -- don't quote me, but I think Iron Valley has probably got 70 million or 80 million tonnes left in it. Wonmunna still got a lot, and there's some more land at Wonmunna we got to drill out. So I just added that and I guess, somewhere down the track, we'll probably add 1 of those. But I wouldn't see it in the next 3 or 4 years.

Unknown Executive

executive
#78

Thanks, Chris. We'll wind it up there. If you got some final comments.

Christopher Ellison

executive
#79

Yes. No, look, I appreciate everyone coming along today. I mean it's always -- our businesses can be a little unpredictable. I hope we present and give you as much information as we can. I mean I got a little bit of criticism last AGM around how we're going to fund things going forward. There is some information that I just can't put it out there. We try and get to the market whenever the information is available freely. But I did say then at the time that, I mean, you've got to trust us a little bit. We brought the business this far but we're not going to do a whole lot different. We don't put our balance sheet at risk. And we're pretty good at identifying projects, getting them running and being able to get value out of them. So we've got a better balance sheet now than we've ever had. I mean, I think that where we get to with the business over the next 2 years, especially is going to be really interesting. I mean I think the next 2 years will be absolutely defining on where MinRes goes over the next decade or 15 years. So really critical time we're in now. And if we get all of the things right that we've got it, I think it will be a great business for a long time to come. So look, thanks for your interest in our company, and I'm obviously passionate about it and passionate about making sure the growth in the business is maintained. I think our margins that we've had in the past, I think we can improve on them. They won't diminish. They will improve. And we'll continue to get things done. And hopefully, come the AGM, I'll have an awful lot more news and we can get some real numbers out there that you can really work on. So we appreciate you coming along, and thanks very much.

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