Mitsui Chemicals, Inc. (4183) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

This is Nakajima, CFO of Mitsui Chemicals. Thank you very much for joining us today despite your busy schedule. We are pleased to announce today our financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2023 and our forecast for the fiscal year 2023. In the first quarter, due to weak demand and consumption in smartphone and semiconductor market and the decline in raw material prices, both sales and profit declined year-on-year. The forecast for operating income before special items in FY 2023 has been revised downward from JPY 150.0 billion to JPY 125.0 billion based on the first quarter results. But the forecast for the growth domains as a whole remains unchanged at JPY 121.0 billion, and the annual dividend is forecasted to stay at JPY 140 per share. I would now like to explain our business performance and its overview and the financial statements with the materials provided to you. I will begin with an overview of the first quarter results for the fiscal year 2023, followed by an overview of the forecast for fiscal year 2023 in full year. Page 1. This is about market trend for our main businesses. First, our outlook about eyeglass lens market in Life & Healthcare Solutions segment. In the first quarter, there were some inventory adjustments in the market. However, we expect the demand will recover from the second quarter onward and remain firm. We are expecting downswing from our previous forecast due to the inventory adjustment in the first quarter. Agrochemicals has seasonality, but we are expecting firm trend. Next is about an outlook of global auto production volume that relates to our Mobility segment. We basically expect recovery of global production volume. However, we are also worrying about rising interest rates and its impact to North American market. This means changes in volume could be different by regions, up or down. However, we still forecast the total production volume would be the same size of our last forecast. In ICT segment, we expect demand in semiconductor market would continue to decline through the first half of this fiscal year but start recovering from the second half. Demand for smartphones would keep falling throughout FY 2023. And for both semiconductors and smartphones, our outlook has been revised lower than the last one. In Basic & Green Materials business, polyurethane market would be remained unchanged from our last forecast. Operation rate of our crackers in the first half would be lower than our original forecast but would improve in the second half with recovery in demand. Please turn to Page 2. This is about our major investment projects. The items in yellow are the projects we start commercial operation in the current fiscal year. The blue one is an investment decision we made this year. Since the results announcement last time, we have decided to split Mitsui Chemicals Tohcello, Inc. and to transfer part of those shares. We have also established LLP for PPG production. Please turn to Page 3, consolidated financial highlights. Sales revenue in the April-June quarter was JPY 407.9 billion, down by JPY 68.2 billion year-on-year. Operating income before special items was JPY 20.9 billion, down by JPY 23.7 billion year-on-year. Net income attributable to owners of the parent was JPY 9.6 billion, down by JPY 18.4 billion year-on-year. Exchange rate was JPY 137 against U.S. dollar, JPY 7 weaker than last year. Domestic standard naphtha price was JPY 67,500, down by JPY 18,600 from previous year. Page 4, summary of year-on-year comparison about operating income before special items in the first quarter. In volume, vision care materials sales decreased due to the impact of inventory adjustments in some markets. Sales of automotive applications increased thanks to the recovery in automotive production. Sales of semiconductor applications were down due to a slowdown in demand in semiconductor and smartphone markets. Polyolefins and phenols were also down due to weaker demand. In terms of trade, the terms of trade improved as a result of our price revision and the currency exchange benefit. But due to a rise in raw material prices, we no longer have inventory valuation gains as we had in fiscal year 2022. As for costs, et cetera, repair and maintenance costs and business and product development costs kept increasing year-after-year, and equity earnings also got worse. As a result of these, out of the year-on-year decline in profit of JPY 23.7 billion, volume impact was minus JPY 12.7 billion, terms of trade was minus JPY 2.2 billion and costs, et cetera, was minus JPY 8.8 billion. Page 5 is sales revenue and operating income before special items by business segment. Generally, impact by declining sales volume was significant, and we have recorded a decline in both sales and profits in all the segments of Life & Healthcare, ICT and Basic & Green Materials but Mobility. I am going to further explain about factors of increase or decrease in detail by segment. Page 6. In Life & Healthcare Solutions, operating income before special items in the first quarter was JPY 4.5 billion, down by JPY 1.7 billion year-on-year. Decline in volume was a negative impact of JPY 2.8 billion. Vision care materials sales were down due to the inventory adjustments in some markets. Sales of nonwovens, especially for disposable diapers, also declined. In terms of trade, the segment had improvement of JPY 1 billion with price revisions for vision care and nonwovens. Costs, et cetera, were on par with last year. Page 7. In Mobility Solutions, the operating income before special items in the first quarter was JPY 12.3 billion, up by JPY 2.8 billion year-on-year. Volume change impact was plus JPY 0.9 billion, and the main factors were growth in solar cell encapsulants and also PP compound volume growth due to the automotive production recovery. Solution businesses are now showing signs of recovery. Terms of trade was plus JPY 3.5 billion, and we enjoyed overall benefit from price revisions, currency exchange rate and also our shift to high value-added type products in elastomers. Costs, et cetera, was minus JPY 1.6 billion due to the fixed cost increase as we are accelerating development activities for new products and businesses and also due to the decline in equity earnings. Page 8. In ICT Solutions segment, operating income before special items of the quarter was JPY 5.2 billion, a decrease of JPY 4.0 billion year-on-year. In terms of volume, sales of EUV pellicles and coating and engineering materials remained firm, but impact by the slowdown in demand in semiconductor and smartphone markets were so significant. Overall volume impact was minus JPY 4.0 billion. Terms of trade was plus JPY 2.0 billion. Other than positives, thanks to currency exchange rate, there were also improvements in terms of trade in coating and engineering materials with fall down of raw material prices. Costs, et cetera, was minus JPY 2.0 billion as there was a start of new plant operation and an increase of R&D and other expenses. Page 9. In Basic & Green Materials, operating income before special items in the quarter was negative JPY 0.4 billion, down JPY 21.2 billion year-on-year. Volume was minus JPY 6.8 billion due to overall declines in sales. Terms of trade was minus JPY 8.7 billion with significant impact by the absence of inventory valuation gains in FY 2022 due to changes in raw material prices. Fixed costs and others were minus JPY 5.7 billion mainly due to the deterioration of equity income. Page 10 is about nonrecurring items. Nonrecurring items in total was minus JPY 7.0 billion or a decline in income by JPY 5.3 billion year-on-year. This decline was mainly due to the impairment losses as a result of separation of Mitsui Chemicals Tohcello's packaging film business and transfer of part of its shares. Page 11 is consolidated statement of financial position. Total assets was JPY 2,062.8 billion, down by JPY 5.4 billion from the end of March in 2023. While sales were declining, the increase in inventories was managed to be about JPY 7.2 billion. So total assets were about same level of the end of March in 2023. Page 12 is about cash flow statement. Cash flows from operating activities was minus JPY 11.7 billion due to an increase in working capital. Cash flows from investing activities was plus JPY 9.9 billion with cash received for the sales of the phenol business in Singapore. As a result of this, the free cash flow was minus JPY 1.8 billion. Cash flows from financing activities were minus JPY 23.0 billion due to the reduction of interest-bearing debt and other reasons. Now let me explain our outlook for FY 2023. Please turn to Page 13, highlights of consolidated financial outlook. This time, I'm going to explain outlook for the first half of the year and our revised full year forecast. In the first half, we forecast JPY 870 billion in sales revenue, JPY 46.0 billion in operating income before special items and JPY 23.0 billion in net income attributable to owners of the parent. That means we expect a decline in both sales and profit. As for the full year outlook, sales revenue is to be JPY 1.85 trillion, down by JPY 29.5 billion year-on-year. Operating income before special items is forecasted to be JPY 125.0 billion, up by JPY 11.1 billion year-on-year, but this is a downward revision by JPY 25 billion from our previous forecast. Net income attributable to owners of the parent is to be JPY 84.0 billion, up by JPY 1.1 billion year-on-year. Currency exchange rate assumption is JPY 139, which means depreciation by JPY 4 from last year. Domestic standard naphtha price is expected to rise as the economy should start recovering from the second half. So our forecast for the second half is JPY 72,000 per kiloliter and JPY 69,000 for full year. Page 14. Let me explain about details of the downward revision from our last forecast. We have revised Life & Healthcare and Mobility segments upward but downward for ICT segment as environment of the business has been very difficult. Overall, the full year forecast in growth domains total remains to be JPY 121.0 billion. In Life & Healthcare, due to the impact by inventory adjustment in vision care business in the first quarter, volume would be down. However, thanks to the exchange rate gains by weak yen and the cost saving activities, we forecast profit increase of JPY 2.0 billion from our previous outlook. Mobility would also improve by JPY 3.0 billion from previous forecast thanks to the improvements in trading terms due to exchange rate benefits and fall down in raw material market even with the smaller volume than our assumption. In ICT, as we expect smaller volume due to weaker-than-expected demand in smartphones and semiconductors, our current income outlook of the business is now JPY 5.0 billion smaller than previous one. In Basic & Green Materials, smaller volume is forecasted with weaker demand than we assumed. And together with deterioration of terms of trade by inventory valuation losses and lower production yields caused by low utilization rate or cracker-related troubles and also by a decline in equity income by market fall down, we expect JPY 25.0 billion smaller income than our last forecast. Page 15, outline of operating income before special items in our full year outlook. In volume, sales of vision care and agrochemicals will be continuously firm, automotive applications recover and solar cell encapsulant sales will be also firm. Polyolefin sales increase with demand recovery. Generally, we also expect demand recovery in the second half for other products. As for trading terms, price revisions in response to rising costs, such as utility, logistics and others, [ could ] progress. And we also expect positive impact by weak yen. However, the inventory gains in FY 2022 disappears as a result of changes in raw material prices. So inventory valuation is expected to be negative. As for fixed costs and others, although we are enjoying benefit from improvement by business restructurings, expenses, such as repair and maintenance and R&D, have been growing year-after-year. Labor costs are also rising, and equity income is being worse. Therefore, we are expecting negative direction. As a result of these, by factors, within our outlook of JPY 11.1 billion profit increase from last year, volume is plus JPY 28.5 billion, terms of trade is plus JPY 1.5 billion and costs, et cetera, is minus JPY 18.9 billion. From the next page onward, let me explain about the factors of increase or decrease by each segment. Page 16. Life & Healthcare Solutions operating income before special items for the full year is forecasted to be JPY 36.0 billion, up by JPY 6.8 billion from last year. Volume difference impact would be positive JPY 7.5 billion. Volume growth in vision care and agrochemicals is to be [ remained ]. But nonwoven sales is also expected to increase as a result of business integration, and oral care would also grow. Therefore, we generally expect overall volume growth. Terms of trade is plus JPY 4.0 billion. This is mainly about price revisions in vision care, but there are other impacts, such as pricing of agrochemicals and exchange rate. Costs, et cetera, is minus JPY 4.7 billion, with an increase in fixed cost with new plant operation in vision care, increase in SG&A with expansion of agrochemical sales and R&D costs. Page 17. In Mobility Solutions, its full year operating income before special items is forecasted to be JPY 57.0 billion, up by JPY 7.7 billion from last year. Volume is plus JPY 13.0 billion. We expect overall sales increase with growth of the solar cell encapsulants and automotive production recovery. Terms of trade is about plus JPY 3.0 billion. Material prices are expected to move higher in the second half. But as yen would be remained weak, positive impacts in terms of trade in the first quarter would still remain. Costs, et cetera, is about minus JPY 8.3 billion with increase in fixed costs, such as labor and repair and maintenance. Page 18. In ICT Solutions, operating income before special items full year is to be JPY 28.0 billion, up by JPY 4.2 billion from last year. Volume impact is plus JPY 5.0 billion as sales of coating and engineering materials would remain firm, and sales recovery in industrial films are also expected in the second half. Terms of trade is plus JPY 3.5 billion mainly by trading term improvements with weak yen and fall in raw material prices in coating and engineering materials in the first half. Costs, et cetera, is minus JPY 4.3 billion as fixed cost increases due to the rise of R&D cost and others. Page 19. Basic & Green Materials operating income before special items in full year is forecasted to be JPY 10.0 billion, down by JPY 7.8 billion from last year. Volume is plus JPY 3.0 billion as demand recovers in the second half. Terms of trade is about minus JPY 9.0 billion due to the reasons such as absence of inventory valuation gains we enjoyed in FY '22, even though there should be some positive impact with price revisions. Costs, et cetera, business restructuring and cost savings are positively working to increase our profit. However, they are not large enough to cover the deterioration of equity income and overall impact is to be minus JPY 1.8 billion. Page 20. Let me continue with explanation about increase or decrease from the first quarter results to the second quarter outlook by segment in our forecast for the first half of the year. The first quarter result was JPY 20.9 billion, and the second quarter outlook is JPY 25.1 billion. So that means JPY 4.2 billion profit increase quarter-on-quarter. We are forecasting JPY 9.0 billion profit increase in growth domains with volume growth in all of its segments. However, Basic & Green Materials is expected to decline in profit by JPY 5.2 billion. In Life & Healthcare, which contributes largely to profit growth in the growth domains, the vision care recovers from inventory adjustment in the first quarter, and sales expansion in overseas markets are also expected in agrochemicals as they are moving into high-demand season. Basic & Green Materials, on the other hand, declines in profit. However, this is due to the deterioration of trading terms because of troubles at crackers and repair and maintenance costs. And this does not mean external business environment are getting worse. Page 21. Let me now explain about increase or decrease from the first half to the second half by segment in our business outlook this time. The outlook for the first half is JPY 46.0 billion and JPY 79.0 billion for the second half. From the first half to the second half, we forecast increase in profit in all the segments thanks to the volume growth, and increase in total company profit is to be JPY 33.0 billion. Especially in the Basic & Green Materials business, we are assuming not only the volume growth with economic recovery, but also improvement in terms of trades, such as production yield improvements, with absence of cracker troubles and higher utilization, inventory valuation gains with rising raw material price. Page 22. Lastly, let me explain about our cash flow outlook in full year. Cash flows from operating activities is to be plus JPY 141.0 billion. As we are now forecasting smaller profit than previous outlook, the level of operating cash flow is also down. Cash flows from investing activities are minus JPY 136.0 billion. The level of capital expenditures has not been changed. As a result, free cash flow would be JPY 5.0 billion positive. Please also refer to appendix slides from Page 23 onwards. This concludes my presentation about summary of our results in the first quarter in the fiscal year 2023 and also our outlook for the full year. Thank you very much for your attention. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]