Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd. (8801) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, everyone. I am Uchida, Executive Manager of Investor Relations at Mitsui Fudosan. I will explain the details of our results for the fiscal year ended March 2024. Similar to previous briefings, I will use the financial results and business highlights materials dated May 10, which are available on our website. Let's get started. I will begin with an overview of the full year results for fiscal 2023. Please turn to Page 3 of the presentation materials. As shown in the blue box in the upper part of the page and the table, Mitsui Fudosan reported year-on-year growth across the board for operating revenue, operating income, ordinary income and profit attributable to owners of parent. Once more, we were able to set new record highs as well as beating our forecast for fiscal 2023. These results marked the 12th consecutive new record high for operating revenues and the second consecutive new record highs for each of operating income, ordinary income and profit attributable to owners of parent. ROE for fiscal 2023 was 7.5%. EPS adjusted for the 1 to 3 stock split implemented on April 1, 2024, was JPY 80.2 for EPS growth of 15.7%. We show our forecast for fiscal 2024 in the lower blue box and table as well. We project operating revenue of JPY 2.6 trillion and profit attributable to owners of parent of JPY 235 billion. The forecast represents the 13th consecutive year of new record highs for operating revenue and the third consecutive year of new record highs for net income. With regard to the new quantitative metric of business income, which was set out in the recently announced group long-term vision and Innovation 2030, we forecast JPY 370 billion for fiscal 2024, up JPY 23.8 billion year-on-year versus the JPY 346.1 billion achieved in fiscal 2023. Please turn to Page 4. Here, we show shareholder returns for fiscal 2023. As shown in the blue box on table, we have decided to raise our full year dividend per share by JPY 2 from the JPY 82 announced last month on April 11 to JPY 84. As a result, in combination with the JPY 40 billion share buyback already announced on April 11, this represents a total payout ratio of 52.7% of profit attributable to owners of parent for fiscal 2023. The management decision to strengthen shareholder returns for fiscal 2023 reflects the front loading of the total payout ratio policy for fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2026 announced last month as outlined in the & Innovation 2030, in which we raised our targets for a total payout ratio of 50% or higher and a dividend payout ratio of 35%. We have chosen to apply the new shareholder return targets from fiscal 2023. With regard to our DPS forecast for fiscal 2024 and based on a target dividend payout ratio level of 35% applied to the net profit target of JPY 235 billion, we are guiding for a full year dividend of JPY 30. We implemented a 1 to 3 stock split for the common stock on April 1, 2024. On this basis, the fiscal 2023 DPS of JPY 84 mentioned earlier would be equivalent to JPY 28 per share for the full year. As such, the fiscal 2024 guidance for full year DPS of JPY 30 represents a year-on-year increase of JPY 2 per share. Next, please turn to Page 5, where we show a detailed breakout of segment profits. All 4 segments of leasing, management, facility operations and other reported year-on-year increases in operating income. In particular, the segments of leasing and management, which generate core profits on a stable and continuous basis, we're able to achieve new record highs. The facility operations segment, which was newly established in fiscal 2023, also reported substantial year-on-year profit growth of more than JPY 30 billion. Please see the upper blue box where we highlight the key profit growth factors for each segment. I will now discuss the results in more detail. Please turn to Page 62 of the presentation. I will start with the consolidated profit and loss statement. Operating revenue for fiscal 2023 was JPY 2,383.2 billion, up JPY 114.1 billion or 5% year-on-year. Operating income was JPY 339.6 billion, up JPY 34.2 billion or 11.2% year-on-year. Ordinary income was JPY 267.8 billion, up JPY 2.5 billion or 1% year-on-year. Profit attributable to owners of the parent was JPY 224.6 billion, up JPY 27.6 billion or 14% year-on-year. On the right, we show the progress rate relative to our forecast. Please see the box titled Progress comparison with full year forecast on the right. We revised up our forecast twice in fiscal 2023. Relative to the upwardly revised forecast, our results exceeded plan for all key levels from operating revenue to net profit. Also, in comparison to our initial forecast, operating income and net income exceeded plan by JPY 9.6 billion and JPY 14.6 billion, respectively. Next, before commenting on the segment details, please return to the table on the left. I will touch upon the major items below the line. First, under nonoperating income and expenses, the net interest burden increased JPY 18.3 billion year-on-year. The major factor for the increase is related to the sharp rise in U.S. policy rates in fiscal 2022. Higher interest rates had a full year impact in fiscal 2023. We note that given the vast majority of domestic borrowings are long term and fixed rate, the impact on overall earnings is limited. Equity in net income or loss of affiliated companies declined JPY 3.3 billion year-on-year. This primarily reflects a high year-on-year base for comparison on the back of strong profits in overseas property sales in the previous fiscal year. Factoring in net other nonoperating income and expenses, such as retirement losses on tangible fixed assets related to reconstruction and asset turnover, overall nonoperating income and expenses was a negative JPY 71.8 billion, which was a JPY 31.7 billion widening of losses. Next, I will discuss extraordinary gains and losses. As shown in the table titled Extraordinary Gains and Losses on the upper right, Mitsui Fudosan posted JPY 66.1 billion in extraordinary gains, including a combination of gains on sales of investment securities and sales of tangible assets. There were no extraordinary losses posted in fiscal 2023. Next, please look at the lower part of the table shown on the left. In fiscal 2023, we recorded a loss of JPY 3 billion in net income attributable to noncontrolling interest. This is mainly the result of profit distributions to noncontrolling interests related to property disposals in the U.S. property sales to investors business. Please turn to the next page. I will now cover the segment results in more detail. I will start with the Leasing segment. Please turn to Page 64. As shown at the top of the page, fiscal 2023 operating revenue was JPY 815 billion and operating income was JPY 167.8 billion. This represents year-on-year increases of JPY 59.7 billion and JPY 18 billion, respectively. Operating revenue of JPY 815 billion and operating income of JPY 167.8 billion are both new record highs. Relative to our forecast, while we revised up our full year operating income forecast when we announced third quarter results by JPY 5 billion to JPY 167 billion, we were able to exceed the revised forecast by JPY 0.8 billion. In the comments section on the left, we describe recent conditions for the Leasing segment. In fiscal 2023, in addition to revenue and profit growth at New York's 50 Hudson Yards, which was completed in the previous fiscal year, Mitsui Fudosan generated significant year-on-year growth in revenues and profits on higher GMV at existing retail facilities and contributions from LaLaport KADOMA and MITSUI OUTLET PARK OSAKA KADOMA, which opened in April 2023. We show the office vacancy rate in the box in the middle of the page. Mitsui Fudosan's nonconsolidated Metropolitan area office vacancy rate improved 0.9 percentage points from 3.1% as of the end of December to 2.2% as of the end of March. Our forecast for the fiscal year-end vacancy rate was initially around the 3% level. As of the end of the first half of the fiscal year, we guided for a fiscal year-end vacancy rate in the mid-2% range. After third quarter, we guided for a level in the low 2% range. Progress on tenants moving into Tokyo Midtown Yaesu and the steady progress on re-leasing vacant space in existing properties allowed us to achieve a vacancy rate that was significantly better than our initial and first half assumptions. Next is the Property Sales segment. Please turn to Page 65. As shown at the top of the page, overall fiscal 2023 segment operating revenue was JPY 627.6 billion, and operating income was JPY 131.9 billion. On a year-on-year basis, this represents a JPY 14 billion decline in revenue and a JPY 13.8 billion drop in operating income. However, operating income exceeded the forecast of JPY 131 billion by JPY 0.9 billion. Looking at the individual subsegments, I will start with property sales to domestic individuals. Please look at the second row from the top. Operating revenue was JPY 314.4 billion and operating income was JPY 49.7 billion. This represents year-on-year increases of JPY 43.8 billion and JPY 10.4 billion, respectively. As stated in the comments section on the left, the main driver was progress on handovers for Park Court Jingu Kitasando The Tower and Park Tower Kachidoki Mid. Other key reported properties are listed in the box below the common section on the left for your reference. The number of reported units are shown in the middle of the table. The combined units for condominiums and detached housing were 3,700 units, up 84 units year-on-year. The average unit prices for condominiums and detached housing was roughly JPY 85 million, up around JPY 10 million year-on-year. Near-term selling conditions remain strong. Completed inventory, as shown in the table on the lower part of the page, was 24 units for condominiums and 22 for detached housing. At a combined total of 46 units, completed inventories remained at record low levels. Although not shown on this page, the fiscal 2023 OPM for the domestic housing business was 15.8%. Next, turning to property sales to investors and overseas individuals, please look at the third row from the top of the table. Operating revenue was JPY 313.2 billion and operating income was JPY 82.1 billion, down JPY 57.9 billion and JPY 24.3 billion year-on-year, respectively. In fiscal 2023, property disposals from asset turnover generated profits of more than JPY 100 billion, including sales of overseas properties such as lab and office property, Innovation Square Phase 2 in Boston and rental residential property Alta Revolution as well as domestic properties such as S-class office buildings, Toyosu Bayside Cross Tower and Osaki Bright Tower logistics facilities and rental residences, However, the rise in cap rates on the back of the interest rate hikes in the U.S. led to valuation losses on some U.S. properties. As a result, this subsegment reported year-on-year declines in operating revenues and operating income. Next, the Management segment. Please turn to Page 66. This segment consists of the property management business, which focuses on managing properties under contract and the car park leasing business Repark and the brokerage and asset management business, which includes the corporate and retail brokerage business and the asset management business for our sponsored REITs and others. Please look at the top row of the table. The overall management segment reported operating revenue of JPY 462.8 billion and operating income of JPY 66.2 billion in fiscal 2023. This represents year-on-year increases of JPY 16.9 billion and JPY 2.9 billion, respectively. The segment posted new record highs for both operating revenue and income. At third quarter, we revised up our full year forecast for operating income by JPY 5 billion to JPY 65 billion, but we're able to exceed the upwardly revised forecast by JPY 1.2 billion. Looking at conditions for the individual businesses, I will start with Property Management. Subsegment operating revenue was JPY 347 billion, and operating income was JPY 38.5 billion, up year-on-year JPY 12 billion and JPY 1 billion, respectively. The key factors were improved profits at operating companies backed by higher occupancy rates at Repark and the management subsidiary profit growth, reflecting a recovery in GMV at retail facilities. Next is the brokerage and asset management subsegment. Operating revenue was JPY 115.8 billion, and operating income was JPY 27.7 billion, up JPY 4.8 billion and JPY 1.8 billion, respectively. The key factor was an increase in project management fees on the back of the completion of a joint venture property. Next is the facility operations segment. Please turn to Page 67. Please look at the top row of the table. Overall, fiscal 2023 facility operations operating revenue was JPY 194.5 billion, and operating income was JPY 26.3 billion. Operating revenue rose JPY 49.9 billion, and operating profit grew a substantial JPY 30 billion year-on-year. We revised up our full year earnings forecast at the time of announcing second quarter and third quarter results by a combined total of JPY 10 billion to JPY 24 billion, but we're able to overshoot this forecast by JPY 2.3 billion. As well, the full year operating income was significantly higher than our initial forecast of JPY 14 billion, up JPY 12.3 billion. The key factors as outlined in the comments section on the left were the significant improvement in ADRs for hotels and resorts and the increase in spectator numbers and operational days for Tokyo Dome. Looking at the individual subsegments, the Hotel & Resorts business posted operating revenue of JPY 140.5 billion, up a hefty JPY 45.3 billion. Operating revenue for the Sports and Entertainment segment was JPY 53.9 billion, up JPY 4.5 billion year-on-year. As you can see, both subsegments were able to grow revenues. Next, the Other segment. Please turn to Page 68. Please look at the top row of the table. In fiscal 2023, overall Other segment operating revenue was JPY 283.3 billion, and operating income was JPY 2.1 billion. Operating revenue rose JPY 1.6 billion year-on-year, and operating income grew JPY 3 billion year-on-year due to improved profitability at Mitsui Homes, new construction under consignment business and the profit contribution from increased orders for interior construction at Mitsui Design Tech. Next, for reference, we show figures for the overseas business. Please turn to Page 69. Overall combined overseas profits in fiscal 2023 were JPY 56.8 billion, down JPY 2.4 billion year-on-year. Please note, there is a 3-month lag in reflecting overseas profits. The figures included in fiscal 2023 earnings reflect the results for the overseas business for the period of January to December 2023. Within this, the Leasing segment reported an increase in operating revenue of JPY 30.8 billion and JPY 4.2 billion in operating income, mainly driven by the revenue and profit contribution of 50 Hudson Yards. In the Property Sales segment, although there was a significant year-on-year increase in profits on the back of sales of properties in the U.S., there were some properties in the U.S. that incurred valuation losses as a result of the rise in interest rates, which pushed up cap rates. Operating revenue rose JPY 2.8 billion, while operating income declined JPY 1.4 billion. The combination of management and facility operations segments reported a year-on-year increase of JPY 5.9 billion in operating revenue and an improvement of JPY 1.9 billion in operating income as a result of higher occupancy rates and ADRs at the Halekulani Hotel in Hawaii. However, taking into account the decline in equity method investment gains and losses, which reflects the high base for comparison in the previous fiscal year for overseas property sales profits, total fiscal 2023 overseas profits came in at JPY 56.8 billion, accounting for 16.6% of total operating income. Next, I will talk about the balance sheet. Please turn to Page 7. At the bottom of the page on the left, total assets as of the end of fiscal 2023 were JPY 9,489.5 billion, up JPY 648.1 billion year-on-year. Of the increase in outstanding assets, slightly less than 30% or approximately JPY 170 billion is attributable to the impact of changes in foreign exchange rates. I will now discuss the major components of change such as investment and cost recovery. Please turn to Page 71. As shown in the table on the upper left, the total outstanding balance of real property for sale was JPY 2375.2 billion, up JPY 211.6 billion from the end of the previous fiscal year. New investments were JPY 614.6 billion, cost recovery was JPY 417.4 billion and other, which includes elements such as ForEx impact was JPY 14.4 billion. As you can see in the breakdown by company, Mitsui Fudosan reported a net increase in investments of JPY 99.4 billion, Mitsui Fudosan Residential, a net increase in investments of JPY 95.9 billion. Mitsui Fudosan America, a net increase in cost recovery of JPY 84.4 billion and Mitsui Fudosan U.K., a net increase in investments of JPY 75.3 billion. Next, looking at the lower left, the outstanding balance of tangible and intangible assets was JPY 4405.5 billion, up JPY 112.3 billion from the end of the previous fiscal year. The key contributing factors for both investments and cost recovery are shown in the comment section on the lower right. New investments, including the Nihonbashi 1-Chome Central District redevelopment and construction investment for LaLaport Kaohsiung in Taiwan were JPY 246.6 billion, while depreciation was JPY 133.7 billion, and other factors, including ForEx impact was a negative JPY 0.4 billion. Factoring in all of the above, on a net basis, there was an increase of JPY 112.3 billion relative to the end of the previous fiscal year. On the liability side, please see the table on the upper right. The outstanding balance of interest-bearing debt as of the end of fiscal 2023 was JPY 4430.4 billion, up JPY 381.8 billion from the end of the previous fiscal year. Of this increase, slightly less than 40% or JPY 139.3 billion is due to the impact of changes in foreign exchange rates. Going back to Page 70. As a result of the factors discussed earlier, the D/E ratio as of the end of fiscal 2023 was 1.42x and the equity ratio was 32.8%, as shown in the table on the lower right. As it is the end of the fiscal year, we have reviewed the market value of rental properties. Please turn to Page 72. As shown on the upper table, market value as of the end of fiscal 2023 was JPY 6961.6 billion. Unrealized gains, which is the difference between market and book value were JPY 3,368.9 billion, up JPY 106.3 billion from the end of the previous fiscal year. As was the case previously, the cap rates used this time for appraisal were not changed. The main factors behind the increase in unrealized gains reflect the additions of newly completed properties such as LaLaport Taichung and the foreign exchange impact. Finally, I will elaborate on the details of our forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025. Please turn to Page 75. We note that from this fiscal year, our explanation of our forecast will be based on a new quantitative metric as set out In & Innovation 2030 of business income rather than the previous metric of operating income. First, the leasing segment. While we expect some profit impact from asset turnover, we project operating revenue of JPY 830 billion and business income of JPY 170 billion, up JPY 14.9 billion and JPY 0.9 billion, respectively, from fiscal 2023. We project Mitsui Fudosan's nonconsolidated metropolitan area office vacancy rate as of the end of the fiscal year to be around 2%. Although, as always, there will be some variance over the course of the fiscal year, reflecting new contracts and terminations. This is largely in line with the 2.2% level reported at the end of March 2024. For the Property Sales segment, reflecting an acceleration of asset turnover targeting real property for sale and tangible fixed assets, we project significant increases in revenue and profits, guiding for operating revenue of JPY 800 billion and business income of JPY 170 billion. Within this, please see the box on the left side of Page 76 for property sales to domestic individuals. The combined units for condominiums and detached housing is projected to be 4,100 units for operating revenues of JPY 420 billion and operating income of JPY 96 billion, up JPY 105.6 billion and JPY 46.2 billion, respectively. We also project a record-high OPM of 22.9%, up 7.1 percentage points versus fiscal 2023. Similar to fiscal 2023, properties to be handed over will be concentrated on central urban, high-end large-scale properties. We expect an improvement in the profit margin on higher unit prices and strong sales of individual properties. Although not shown on this slide, the current progress rate on contracts for the 3,650 condominium units is already 84.4%. This is higher than the initial progress rate versus projected units at the beginning of the previous fiscal year of 77.5%. Compared to previous levels, it is also the highest contract rate level for the start of a fiscal year we have seen in recent years. Based on this, we are confident in our ability to achieve the subsegment's fiscal 2024 earnings forecast. In addition, the current land bank stands at 27,000 units. We believe we can continue to stably generate profits over the medium to long term, mainly focused on central urban large-scale redevelopment projects. On property sales to investors and overseas individuals, while we will be mindful of achieving stable and continuous growth in both leasing profits and property sales profit, we aim to improve efficiency through continuous asset turnover. This year, we will again focus on realizing the added value created through development by executing on disposals of real property for sale and tangible fixed assets. Next, please turn to Page 75. I will cover the Management segment. Continuing on from fiscal 2023, we expect firm trends in the retail brokerage and repark businesses, but expect the absence of the large-scale project management fees generated in fiscal 2023 to have an impact. We project operating revenue of JPY 470 billion and business income of JPY 60 billion, with revenues rising but profits declining. That said, this will be the third consecutive year of profits at the JPY 60 billion level. Factoring in improvements in profitability in the facility operations segment, backed by further growth in revenue and profits on strong demand in the hotel and resorts business and improved profitability at the Tokyo Dome business as a result of measures to enhance value, we project overall segment operating revenue of JPY 210 billion and business income of JPY 30 billion, with both revenues and profits up year-on-year. Next, the Other segment. In the absence of one-off profits reported in fiscal 2023, we project operating revenue of JPY 290 billion and expect to breakeven at the business income level. Relative to fiscal 2023, we are guiding for higher year-on-year revenues but lower year-on-year profits. Finally, on the net interest burden, reflecting the impact of increased interest-bearing debt on the back of higher investments in past years, we project an increase of JPY 6.6 billion versus fiscal 2023 to JPY 79 billion. In summary, we project fiscal 2024 operating revenue of JPY 2600 billion, up JPY 216.7 billion. Business income is forecast to be JPY 370 billion, up JPY 23.8 billion. Ordinary income is projected to be JPY 260 billion, down JPY 7.8 billion. Net profit attributable to owners of parent is forecast to rise JPY 10.3 billion to JPY 235 billion. We expect to hit new record highs for operating revenue and net profit attributable to owners of parent. As noted at the outset, the full year DPS guidance for fiscal 2024 will rise JPY 2 per share to JPY 30 per share from the fiscal 2023 full year DPS of JPY 84 on a pre-stock split basis, which is equivalent to an annual DPS of JPY 28 on a post-split basis. We anticipate this will be split between a JPY 15 interim dividend and a JPY 15 fiscal year-end dividend. Next, on investments. Please turn to Page 76 and look at the table on the right. The investment amount for fiscal 2024 for tangible and intangible assets focused primarily on domestic development is projected to be JPY 230 billion. On real property for sale in fiscal 2024, we project investments of JPY 530 billion with cost recovery of JPY 570 billion, reflecting the acceleration of asset turnover, we are assuming a net cost recovery. Based on this, we project interest-bearing debt as of the end of fiscal 2024 to be largely in line with the fiscal 2023 fiscal year-end level at JPY 4400 billion. This completes my presentation. Thank you.