MLP SE (MLP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon from MLP headquarter in Wiesloch, and welcome to our analyst conference. I also welcome the CEO of MLP, Dr. Uwe Schroeder-Wildberg as well as our CFO, Reinhard Loose. Before we move into our presentation, I will give you some information on today's setup. [Operator Instructions] And now I hand over to Uwe Schroeder-Wildberg. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Please allow me also to welcome you to our online annual analyst conference. The MLP Group can reflect on a very solid financial year 2023. It demonstrated pronounced resilience during a time characterized by serious external pressures at time, which are consequences of overall economic developments and ongoing uncertainty among current consumers due to inflation, interest rate rises, high energy costs, global crisis and political uncertainties become clearly visible. Germany is the only country among the world's leading economic powers that slipped into recession in '23. The prospects for '24 are also not much better. This will obviously have an impact on people and companies in this country. The real estate sector has been hit particularly hard over the course of the last 18 months. Indeed, hardly any other branch of the economy has suffered such a pronounced economic slump. However, other areas also faced significant setbacks. There was a massive increase in pressure on the household budgets of German citizens due to rising costs, although inflation actually began to decline overall. It is becoming increasingly clear to us that the economy and the companies in Germany have been gradually using the buffer established in previous years. Companies have gone to great lengths to retain their employees even when there may not be sufficient work to keep them fully occupied. Yet this approach, which impressively underlines the notion of a social market economy become increasingly difficult to maintain the second half of last year and is now clearly coming to an end. Stability can certainly not be taken for granted in such an environment as the past financial year clearly demonstrated. At this difficult time, we're really benefiting from a strategically developed MLP business model. We've several pillars that compensate or even reinforce one another. Our growth factors are also gaining momentum, not least since they're based on comprehensive long-term trends. We successfully and responsibly exhibited the digitalization of our internal processes. This includes the use of digital robots and artificial intelligence. The same applies to the ongoing expansion of our client portal to create a real financial home as well as to our digital platform solution. In addition to this, we're developing our consultant base and our workforce in the context of AI and in light of the changes that have occurred due to demographic developments, thereby also laying the foundations for future growth. I will come back to this in more detail later on. But first, please allow me to give a brief overview of MLP's performance over the last financial year. Firstly, we're able to increase total revenue to a new record level of EUR 973 million. Our stable and strategically interlinked revenue structure once again had a positive effect here. The strong interest rate business made a significant contribution to this. At the same time, we were able to secure increases to new record levels in 2 key figures relevant for future revenue development, the assets under management in our group and the non-life insurance portfolio volume. As you may already know, we will use fees for ongoing client support. This represents an important part of our business and make a key contribution to the impressive stability that MLP enjoys. Secondly, as already reported in [indiscernible] modification on February 1, earnings before interest and taxes were only at EUR 70.7 million due to a specific effect in the real estate business. And thirdly, we remain extremely attractive and particularly reliable dividend share for our shareholders. Accordingly, the Executive Board is happy to reaffirm its proposed dividend of EUR 0.30 per share, which is the same level as in the previous year. This underlines the strength of our business model and our high level of trust and confidence in the future. MLP has once again proven to be extremely stable and is on a very positive trajectory. In addition to the challenges already mentioned, which the entire German economy is facing, we also like to take a look at several important trends that will shape our markets in the medium term. In many cases, this can and will also provide lasting benefits for our business development as can already be discerned today. Alongside sustainability, the top priority here is digitalization, including artificial intelligence. Digitalization and AI are certainly not entirely new concepts. However, the consistency with which they're being developed is most definitely new, as are the far-reaching opportunities they offer particularly in the case of AI. The key for us is that we definitely do not consider the use of digital concepts and AI as an end of in itself or a means solely to increase cost efficiency. Whatever we do in this field needs to benefit our clients. In line with our digital strategy, we're more committed than ever to combining highly qualified consulting with complementary digital services individually tailored to each client with an MLP customer portal serving as a true financial home. At the same time, we've also successfully launched purely digital client support models under the MLP Choice brand for those clients who are not engaged in any active consultant support. Simultaneously, we're harnessing digitalization to further accelerate our internal processes while also unlocking significant additional potential through responsible integration of robotics and artificial intelligence in both the short and midterm. We also rank among the forerunners in our sector when it comes to sustainability as evidenced by awards the MLP Group has received from rating agency such as ISS and MSCI as well as by the offerings for our clients. Taking the example of FERI with our own [ SEG ] office, we've successfully established a center of expertise for advising institutional investors and family offices on all sustainability issues. The expertise of a FERI specialist is also developed -- deployed throughout our entire group. Moving on to the example of MLP's private client business. Within the scope of our partner and product selection, we can provide well-founded and quality assured offers for those clients that have a high preference for sustainability when selecting the insurance coverage or investment solutions. Including offers from both insurers and fund companies. As the MLP Group, we also benefit greatly from other relevant trends in all markets, above all from a fact that wealth in Germany is continuing to grow and that more and more people are also inheriting wealth. By the end of '27 up to EUR 400 billion are expected to be transferred to the next generation in Germany alone. With our multi-asset investment house FERI as well as MLP Wealth Management, we're particularly well positioned to cater to the growing client demand for highly qualified advice on this difficult and often a substantial task for companies. Offering protection from inflation is obviously a key topic in this regard. This trend affects the business development of our group, not only through increased demand for consulting services in the fields of wealth and life health -- life and health but also in another field, property and casualty especially due to the significantly increased premiums in the nonlife insurance market such as protection for residential buildings. Last but not least, the demographic development, is becoming an increasingly important factor both in the private client area and for companies. Our clients have recognized that it is going to be increasingly difficult to maintain the performance of a statutory pension system at its current level, especially since the reform approaches of the government seem to be insufficient in parts even counterproductive. This is evident from just taking a look at the ratio of premium contributors to pensioners and the entry of the baby boomers into retirement has only just begun. In addition to this, people are living longer on average. This development is clearly and discernibly increasing demand for supplementary old-age provision and generating a corresponding need for consulting services. Companies have been experiencing a growing shortage of labor and skilled workers for some time now. Based on forecast, this is likely to become even more urgent over the next few years, especially since the government has not at all shown enough action to counteract this. Many employers will, therefore, work even harder and offer intelligent benefits to find good personnel and retain them. With its digital platform, pxtra, MLP is also offering the field of employee benefits that enables corporate clients to provide high-quality benefits, which are both perfectly tailored and reliable. This makes MLP an even more attractive partner for medium-sized corporate clients. pxtra obviously also includes our offers in the field of occupational pension provision and health insurance. A prime example of a strategic interlinking within our group. Before I now hand over to Reinhard Loose, who will go into greater detail regarding the '23 business figures. I would like to take this opportunity to express my sincere thanks to all MLP consultants as well as all employees in the group. You have delivered exceptional performance in an extremely challenging environment.

Thank you, Uwe. I couldn't agree more. Please also allow me to wish everyone a very good afternoon. In the financial year 2023, total revenue rose to a new all-time high of EUR 973 million. We were also able to slightly increase income from commissions and fees. While revenue from the real estate development business suffered a significant decline due to the disruptions in the real estate market, revenue from the interest rate business actually enjoyed a significant increase. Indeed, the total share of recurring revenue was 68%, which once again serves to underline our excellent stability. With regard to the various consulting fields, non-life insurance recorded the greatest growth with an increase of 15%. MLP's private client business as well as its underwriting agency and industrial broker business contributed to this. In the health insurance sector, MLP recorded an increase of 8%. The consulting fields of wealth management and old-age provision recorded virtually constant revenue. As anticipated and in accordance with the extremely difficult market conditions, both the real estate brokerage and loan of mortgages displayed significant declines. The compensatory effect of the device -- diversified and above all, intellect positioning of the MLP Group was also clearly visible in the last financial year. At this point, I would like to introduce something new. Given the strategic advancement made by the MLP Group in recent years, we've revised the approach to presenting figures in our financial reporting. As you can see here on this slide, the 3 competence fields wealth, life and health and property and casualty sit at the heart of this approach. The existing consulting fields as well as the interest rate business are being transferred to one of these 3 competence fields. In terms of concrete implementation, this has the following significance. And the competence field wealth, which compromises wealth management and the interest rate business as well as real estate brokerage and loan and mortgages, recorded revenue of EUR 408 million in the financial year 2023, following on from EUR 398 million in the previous year. The competence field life and health, which includes the 2 consulting fields of old-age provision and health insurance, revenue was EUR 294 million, following on from EUR 285 million in the previous year. The non-life insurance business with revenue of EUR 201 million, following on from EUR 174 million in the previous year is now recorded in the third competence field, property and casualty. Other activities, which are not assigned to these competence fields generated a combined revenue of EUR 38 million. These include the so-called other commissions and fees as well as the real estate development business, which has been already reduced. By taking these steps, we've also significantly lowered business-related risks. Key figures for future growth also showed successful development. Both assets under management totaling EUR 57 billion and the non-life insurance portfolio volume amounting to EUR 687 million reached new record levels as of the 31st of December. FOM, DOMCURA and our MLP consultants all contributed to the latter. The growth recorded in assets under management is attributable to the positive development at both FERI and MLP banking. As the MLP Group, we're now more than ever on par with renowned private banks, the development that only a few market observers believed we're capable of at the start of our strategically strengthened commitment in the competence field wealth. In the meantime, we've also successfully established this among clients. At the same time, this competence field still holds great potential in our client base, which we're actively addressing. The number of family clients served by the MLP Group rose to 580,000 as of the 31st of December. The gross number of newly acquired family clients was 19,500. The number of corporate and institutional clients totaled 27,400. The number of consultants in the MLP Group stood at 2,055. This figure includes a shifting effect due to the incorporation of the trainee program in mid-'23, which prepares the employment trainees for their role as consultant. By the end of the financial year '23, 122 trainees had already joined the program, which marks a successful start. Please allow me to talk about EBIT, which we already communicated on the 1st of February '24. EUR 70.7 million for the financial year '23 represents a solid result. Even if you were not quite able to achieve our forecast corridor of EUR 75 million to EUR 85 million, this can be attributed to the pronounced pressure in the real estate market, I already mentioned, which impacted both the real estate development business and the real estate brokerage business. In light of this, MLP reassessed this business within the process of drafting the financial statements, and as a result, performed the goodwill impairment within the DEUTSCHLAND.Immobilien segment. However, all other operational segments of the MLP Group recorded solid performance. Group net profit was EUR 44.1 million. Shareholders' equity rose to EUR 532 million as of 31st of December. The core capital ratio for the financial holding group was 18.1%, which represents a very solid basis. The liquidity coverage ratio, LCR, which serves as a benchmark for the short-term liquidity situation in stress scenarios and as such, is an indicator of resilience is 1,850%. It is, therefore, also well above the ratio of 100% required by the supervisory authorities. The MLP Group stability and the level of trust we've in its ability to perform and grow is also reflected in our dividend. The long-standing policy of maintaining a consistent dividend payment will therefore be continued. As the Executive Board at MLP SE, we reaffirm our proposal of EUR 0.30 per share for the financial year 2023, which represents the same level as the previous year. The payout ratio, therefore, stands at 74% of the consolidated net income. We've also completed another share buyback program. Since the 2nd of January '24, we've acquired 577,000 shares with a total value of around EUR 3.1 million via stock exchange, which we're assigning to our participation program for MLP office managers as well as MLP consultants. By taking this step, we're keen to further strengthen the collaborative component in our business model. As my final point, please now allow me to discuss our share price. The MLP share was not able to withstand the temporary sharp downturn in the stock markets in '23. However, after reaching its lowest point in October of last year, the MLP share has recorded significant gains. Lately, it was also announced that we will reenter the index for German small caps on the 18th of March, and therefore, we received even more attention from further potential investors. Of course, we appreciate this. All in all, there is still a great deal of potential for further price rises. I will now hand over to Uwe Schroeder-Wildberg, who will take a bit more about -- will talk a little bit more about how we will further leveraging this potential in the MLP Group.

Many thanks, Reinhard. As we know from our many conversations with investors, the capital market is fully aware that we're strategically advancing MLP Group. I would now like to briefly discuss 2 key strategic focuses. We're consistently pursuing and expediting our digitalization strategy. The intelligent and -- that comes from the personal support provided by our consultants continues to sit at the heart of the strategy, coupled with the digital self services that our clients request. Our client portal, which we recently significantly enhanced is a visible sign of this. In fact, we've developed this into a true financial home. Our strategic objective is already evident in the name, in the portal, clients have a comprehensive overview of their finances in a digital environment that is convenient for them to use and available around the clock. And most importantly, not only their banking transactions, but also all insurance policies from product partners. Why do I stress this here? Well, a client portal of this kind offers extremely high transparency and also enables clients to act independently. It therefore represents true added value for every single user. From MLP's perspective, it also offers a clear competitive advantage over banks, insurers and fintechs. At the same time, we're also continuously improving the consultant portal at MLP, which essentially serves as a kind of cockpit for our highly qualified consultants. This provides consultants with modern and digital support for their personal client relations from sophisticated and perfectly tailored overviews and modeling of financial situations to an application process for appropriate insurance coverage adjustments in wealth management all accomplished in a matter of seconds. Alongside the described advancement of front ends, we're also working hard on further automating back-end processes, especially those involving repetitive tasks. We already have various digital robots in use, for example, for standard processes at MLP Banking AG. Last but not least, we're further delving into the field of artificial intelligence with great focus, but also very responsibly. Our group-wide AI task force has been supporting the first applications in the MLP Group and is working hard to determine new potential users in collaboration with the subsidiaries. Speech recognition is likely to play a key part here, particularly in our service units. As such, we already have a claim spot in use at our subsidiary, DOMCURA, with quickly and reliably answers routine questions in claims handling and records clients entries. This reduces waiting times, which represents an important factor, particularly following severe data events with large-scale damage, and a large number of affected policyholders. The technology is now so good that the claims spot itself creates a positive client experience. Otherwise, we should not take such steps. However, we obviously also learning more about AI on a daily basis for its use, while expediting it in a highly targeted way with specialized partners. Ladies and gentlemen, all these things I've just presented should not be seen as answering themselves. In fact, the targeted and responsible expansion of automation and AI services has a higher objective, freeing up more time for complex client topics, which represent the core of our consulting services. We're also focusing on the use of AI in another field of major strategic requirements for our group with further development of our consultant base and our workforce. However, by no means do we aim to simply replace with people in the professional environment. In any case, with fierce, we repeatedly see and hear in the media, but I will soon make us all dispensable. It seems rather far fetched to any person taking a closer look into how it actually works. To this date, AI is definitely not developed its own consciousness, and there are a whole host of experts who are highly skeptical as to whether this will be even possible. Within the MLP Group, we continue to engage very intensively with AI our understanding and thereby also our approach to responsibly use this technology, as that -- it is a resource which can unquestionably be used for highly versatile deployments and offers impressive results, as becomes particularly clear with example of ChatGPT. We're, therefore, examining further options for prudent integration of this technology and our processes, imprecisely this context. This will also involve supporting the development of employees so that they can perform their existing duties even more effectively or take on new ones, thanks to the use of AI. However, the human element always remains at the heart of all these plans. This is particularly true for financial consulting itself. After all, this is precisely where empathy and emotion are required, alongside the financial data prepared with digital support for respective clients. In other words, people want to be advised by people and not by algorithms or neural networks. Our clients rightly have high expectations of their financial advisers. The key is, therefore, to offer outstanding quality in the consultancy process said specifically against this background, we not only invest in recruitment of the best consultants, but also intensively in their comprehensive training and qualification. With our MLP Corporate University, which offers a wide range of qualifications up to certified financial planner or CFP for short, we're more than ever pioneers in the market. After all, our goal is to establish a highly sophisticated occupational profile, where financial consulting is actively lift out as a real profession. As already reported, we successfully launched our innovative training program last year, which will help to put us in the best possible position to achieve our goals, both now and in the future. As employed consultant trainees, participants can focus fully on their consultant training during this phase. In the midterm, we use this attractive program to ensure recruitment of the future aspiring consultants we need for the young segment at MLP. As such, it constitutes a particularly important component in terms of demographic management of our consultant base. As part of a dedicated location planning, we also ensure the smooth transition of successful junior consultants into the group of colleagues with longer professional experience and an established client base. In this context, other issues gain importance was requiring complementary further training and new expertise. This transition typically takes place after around 6 or 7 years. MLP consultants in a 3-digit number will take this step over the course of the next 4 years. At the same time, we're focusing on the further development of consultants to become office managers. Another key component is structured succession planning. This focus on ensuring ongoing client support even when MLP consultants leave a profession due to retirement. Ladies and gentlemen, please allow me to move on to the forecast of a current financial year. We're not expecting the challenging conditions to fundamentally improve in the short term. Nevertheless, even in such an environment, we expect, thanks to our strong position in EBIT of EUR 75 million to EUR 85 million in the current financial year. This is subject to revenue growth in the competence fields, wealth and life and health. In the wealth competence field, MLP is anticipating another pronounced increase in the interest rate business. This is due to the interest rate policy of central banks, which are likely to take slightly more time with the steps for reducing interest rates over the course of a year than initially expected. We're also anticipating an end of a negative development in the real estate market, starting from the low level recorded in the previous year. We're, therefore, forecasting significant growth in the real estate brokerage and in loans and mortgages. Of course, this is contingent upon the signs of recovery, further stabilizing the market, albeit with gradual and potentially slow development. Financing interest has also already visible decline from its interim peaks. Additionally, MLP clients are able to contribute a substantial portion of equity to the real estate investments as part of a diversified investment portfolio. In any case, investment of assets will play an increasingly important part for our clients. Accordingly, we're anticipating a continued high demand in wealth management solution. This also supplies to our subsidiary, FERI, especially in the field of true multi-asset solutions, where our specialists have further refined their offering. In the competence field, life and health, MLP is anticipating growth in both private and occupational pension provision. This results primarily from the consequences of the advancing demographic changes, which entail additional need for insurance coverage. At the same time, initial provision components also playing a part for clients in our growing young consultant segment. In addition to this, corporate clients will persist in the efforts to foster employee loyalty through strategic offerings, such as occupational pension provision schemes. In light of a shortage of labor and skilled workers, personnel requirements of employers are likely to increase even further. In the competence field, property and casualty, MLP is anticipating constant revenue for '24, following on from the significant increase recorded in the last financial year. FOM and DOMCURA continuing along the successful course, while non-life insurance policies remain an established part of MLP's private client business. In addition to substantial investments made in recent years, in particularly those targeting the IT infrastructure, along with effective cost management, will also have additional positive and results relevant effects. Please allow me to move on to our planning for the end of '25 -- 2025, which we reaffirm today. This includes an increase in EBIT to a level of EUR 100 million to EUR 110 million, which continues to be based primarily on 3 strategic success factors. Firstly, a further increase in assets under management in the group. MLP is still planning to record a level of EUR 62 billion to EUR 68 billion by the end of 2025. The road to achieving this has already been paved with a figure of EUR 57 billion that was recorded in the last year '23. We're expecting the positive developments to continue both in MLP's private client business and at FERI. In addition to this, asset successions and investments from maturing life insurance policy will present particular opportunities within our client base. The second success factor is the ongoing expansion of non-life insurance portfolio volume to a range between EUR 730 million and EUR 810 million by the end of 2025. This is based on further organic growth in MLP's private client business, industrial broker business and underwriting business. And last but not least, we're anticipating a sustainable growth in all parts of MLP Group. Old-age provision will also make growing contribution to this existing potential is to be further exploited here. Many long-standing clients have a need for consulting service with regard to retirement planning, demographic developments with more and more baby boomers now taking retirement are serving to accelerate this even further in our business. A growing need for consulting services and corresponding solutions can also be discerned in occupational pension provision. Apart from that, real estate brokerage remains important for many of our clients in terms of diversifying larger assets. With the expected further normalization of real estate markets, it is likely to be in greater demand again. And I've not yet spoken about acquisitions. These are explicitly not yet taking into account our planning for 2025, although they remain a part of MLP Group strategic agenda. At the same time, we're not subjecting ourselves to any pressure, but rather performing very carefully checks as a part of our M&A strategy to determine what actually fits us in terms of all parameters from price to corporate culture. And last but not least, continuing with our consistent cost management approach will help support our positive EBIT development. Ladies and gentlemen, I would now like to move on to our summary. Firstly, the MLP Group once again demonstrated its pronounced stability in the last financial year. More than ever before, we're benefiting from a mutually compensating and reinforcing pillars of our strategically developed business model. Secondly, given the challenging conditions, our forecast for '24 underscores both the resilience and growth opportunities of MLP Group, whereby we can build on what we've consistently expanded in recent years, our pioneering role in the market for high-quality financial consulting services. And thirdly, we've once again reaffirmed our planning for 2025. We persistently move closer to our target of reaching a new level of earnings within the MLP Group. Indeed, we're consistently and alertly pursuing our broad-based ascend on the EBIT level of EUR 100 million to EUR 110 million. Many thanks now for your attention. We're now happy to answer any questions you may have.

Thank you, Uwe and Reinhard. And now we're happy to answer your questions. [Operator Instructions] So we will start with the first question that comes from Henry Wendisch from NuWays.

I hope you can hear me. I think my camera is not working at the moment. But yes, anyway, just continue with my questions. I have a couple of questions, but first of all, congrats to the stocks uplisting and it's pretty promising news and also on the results. I was positively surprised with Q4 and the real estate business development and brokerage came in above my expectations. Was that mainly due to a larger project that has been finally developed and hence, also brokered? Or is that early sign of the market recovery that you can give also an outlook into Q1, Q2 2024? This is my first question. My second question is the one that's always my question regarding performance fees. Do you have the Q4 number or the full year number for '23 for us? And also in that regard, the capital inflows of -- into assets under management, that would be nice to have. Regarding the outlook, it seems that you're very positive on the real estate turnaround in that case. How confident would you say that given the current outlook in real estate is -- that the downside risk in real estate should be rather limited in your view? But also given the mix that you guide very positively for wealth and you now have the competence field for wealth, which of the contained fields like wealth management interest income is the one where you're most positive about in that regard? And also the outlook -- regarding the outlook, is it just the top line outlook? Or is it also for profitability, something that's important for us to know? And yes, that's been it.

Okay. Mr. Wendisch, thank you for your question, and thank you also for the congratulations. We're also very happy as we've said this, and I will start answering your question with the numbers and then later hand over to Uwe Schroeder-Wildberg little bit for the outlook perhaps. Concerning question performance fees in Q4, we had EUR 2.2 million in Q4, which is overall performance fees than of EUR 4.4 million for the whole year. For us, a relatively low figure in comparison to the last year, but we all know the reason why. You also asked for inflows. I will give you the numbers for the full year. For the full year, we had inflows of EUR 4.8 billion. We had outflows of EUR 5.5 billion and we had performance changes, although the overall performance was positive with EUR 3.5 billion performance for our customers in the last year. Concerning the real estate numbers in Q4, perhaps as the last question on my side. Yes, we saw -- let's start on the other way. Q4 2022, as you all remember, was the first extremely negative part for the real estate sector. In comparison to this real negative part, we had -- we saw a good positive tendency in the last quarter, and this continues in comparison to the last year, also in Q1, in 2024. Therefore, our, let's say, outlook for 2024 for the real estate sector is that it will be better than '23.

So -- and coming back to your question of outlook and for sure, it's also heavily linked, as you just mentioned already, with the real estate sector. So perhaps to make it very short, our task is now to keep on track in the fields, which developed very well over the last years and bring real estate sector back to track again. So I think it's a simple story for this year and especially also for the next year. And the support from outside seems to be more positive. For sure, we're always in life, downside risk, I will come to that. But we see, as Reinhard just mentioned, we see a pickup, we see growing interest again in this very important -- still very important sector. It's -- as we know also from the overall big social questions in this society having enough building activity for enough apartments to rent is -- it has to be a key question also for our government. And we see first slightly movements. For example, KfW came back to support a lending for energy-efficient new buildings, which helps to finance these projects. And we all know as a further supporting aspect that the new [indiscernible] is still under discussion, but it seems to be that the depressive depreciation possibilities, which are described there could be, for sure, a very helpful step for customers to recalculate investments in real estate, again, which should be an extra benefit for sure of our planning. But for sure, again, this is a positive signal after a very, very low activity we had, especially at the year-end '22 to '23. We see now that it's coming up step-by-step on a very solid way. And as I mentioned also, for sure, we're serving a very specific mass-affluent customer base, which not -- can be compared with the broad average is also, for sure, very important to know. And the rest should be on track. For sure, we've also some competition like in the asset management part you mentioned. But due to our very specific offering here, real multi-asset approach, FERI has further developed and also a customer base, which has a growing interest in this question. I also spoke about expiring life insurance contracts as additional effects, inheritance is coming up. So that means overall, we're -- we feel that we're very well on track. But for sure, we will also take care that we stay there and again, bring real estate on track again in the next forthcoming months. Hoping this has helped you, Mr. Wendisch.

Okay. Our next question is from Philipp Häßler from Pareto Securities. [Operator Instructions] So -- okay, it seems it doesn't work. You told us you could be -- that you have technical issues, but you told us your questions. So I will read them out for us. So the first question is, I think we answered it already is about the net flows in the fourth quarter in the last year. Also, the second question, I think we deal it with, it's about performance fees in the last quarter. Then the third question is about net liquidity. Why was it down by EUR 80 million in the last quarter, could you comment on this?

Yes, I will take over to answer this question. The short answer is because we changed the method to calculate the net liquidity. Why did we do so and to just to explain what we did there. In the past, we also included liquidity in the banking book, short-term liquidity. But what we, let's say, found out in the last -- especially in the last months due to the change of interest rates that due to the longer duration, the old way of calculating the number would lead to extreme high net liquidity. Therefore, if we -- again, if we would have calculated it in the old way, then the net liquidity would be higher. Therefore, our new way of calculating the net liquidity is only the net liquidity, which is the liquidity, which is lower than 3 months in all our areas, except the banking business. And therefore, this is the new way how we calculate it. We believe this is a little bit closer to what we like to express, which is exactly, as I said, the liquidity which we've on our books there. This perhaps would answer your question.

And I will go on with further questions of Philipp Häßler. And the next question was about the tax rate outlook for 2024. The next question is about the EBIT guidance for 2024. It seems to look cautious looking at our plannings for 2025. That looks optimistic in relation to our -- to 2024. That's the next question. And the last question from Philipp Häßler is the net interest income in the last quarter around EUR 9 million, is this a good run rate for the next quarters in the next year?

Uwe, will you start with the outlook and I take over the other question.

I was just waiting for camera. So coming back to the outlook, I just gave some explanation. I think they should be clear. That is our viewpoint for sure. One can say we're cautious. On the other side, we all know and I stated that in my remarks that the environment is still challenging, so we've to be careful. But when we come back to track and we're -- as I said, some good signals for real estate segment, the turnaround effect would be quite high, which is also for sure part of our planning. And so therefore, we're overall -- we're positive, and we will -- we're very motivated to also in the existing other fields to stay on track. And the signals we've here so far from this very early year are supporting us. So just to have some -- another aspect to the question, I just already asked for with Mr. Wendisch.

Okay. Then I will take over, start with the tax question. The outlook concerning our tax ratio. We've relatively -- just looking back where we had relatively high tax ratio in '23. This is especially due to the negative results in the segment of Deutschland.Immobilien, as we planned to dramatically reduce the losses there. Our expectation for the tax ratio in '24 is that it should be more -- a little bit higher than 30% over the whole year and in '24. And concerning the interest revenues in the last quarter, we've some shifts or we had some shifts between how we -- and where we allocate our -- or the money of our customers in the balance sheet, and there was a little shift from short term to long term in the expectation, that the long-term interest rate or that we will see some tax -- sorry, interest rate reductions in '24. And therefore, we tried to secure higher interest rate on a more long-term basis, but the high interest rate, as you well know, at the moment are lower than the short-term interest rates. And therefore, we changed from short term to long term.

Then we go on with the next question. It comes from [ Olaf Heine ] and he wants to know how exactly do we think to increase our assets under management by around EUR 8 billion at FERI within the next 2 year? And in addition, what net margin does FERI active for its assets under management?

Yes, I will take over. First of all, just for comparing figures, we're at the moment at EUR 57 billion asset under management. And our outlook for '25 is a corridor range between EUR 62 billion to EUR 68 billion. That means the lower level, of course, we'd like to have not the lowest level, but the lower level is only EUR 55 billion, number one. Number two, it's not only FERI, but also banking. And we saw in the -- let's say, not in the last 2 or 3 years, but we saw in, let's say, more normal years and years with less changes in the overall environment, we saw increases, which were even higher. And therefore, due to the fact that our outlook -- let's say, for '25 also for the overall economy, economy is better than for '24, we expect this as possible. Obviously, with the risk that we're -- let's say, we're not -- we can perform as part of the market, but we can't make the market, if the market overall is negative. There definitely is a risk that our overall performance is not as positive as it was this year. And therefore, it is as always a challenge.

And may I add to this, and you just mentioned, [indiscernible] means [ MMP ] customer, which are more and more also due to age and their households and wealth development in this sector of wealth management. Additionally, I mentioned that in my speech, life insurance contracts, which are expiring more and more in the forthcoming years. So there's a further growth support possible. And again, inheritances will pick up. And for sure, our customers as well as FERI customers will overproportionately benefit out of inheritance. So it means we saw very specific factors. It should be kept in mind when we speak about wealth and the growth opportunities at all in our highly focused business model.

Then next question, we've a follow-up question from Henry Wendisch. So [Operator Instructions].

Just 1 or 2 follow-up questions that emerged. Regarding the performance fees, I presume that has mostly been private equity carries. That would be number one. And the second one is a brief outlook into Q1 regarding performance fees. I mean, currently, the funds exceed the threshold, at least in my view. You have a rough ballpark estimate that given today's valuation of the funds stays the same, and it's on the last day of the quarter, how much of performance fees do you think are probable for the first quarter in 2024?

Okay. I'll -- we're both eager to answer your question. I'll start and then Uwe will explain what I really wanted to say. Your question concerning performance fee for last year, the -- in fact, the carry were an important part -- or the carries were an important part, but there was a little bit more out of the funds. And therefore, as I mentioned, carries was a little bit less than 50% of this relatively small some of -- or a small amount of EUR 4.4 million. Q1, let's say, we're quite positive that we will see some performance fees in Q1.

So as you saw the funds, the flex families, we're speaking about, performed very well in the last year, which is also good news and also supporting our approaches also to gain new customers for sure. And therefore, also the high watermarks have been reached and that brings us again in the potential. As you know, we're very careful in speaking about this. We're very careful in planning this. But for sure, we would be lucky also to get some higher volumes. And to bring it to historical relation, the year '23, where I think was the worst in this category of performance fees since 2013. But it gives you also an impression what more potential it could be. But again, we're very careful in planning this. Hoping this has helped you.

Then we go on with a follow-up question from Philipp Häßler, and he's optimistic with his microphone this time, so we will try it.

Yes. Hello. I hope you can hear me.

Yes.

Yes. Okay. This time it works. Sorry for that it didn't work before. I have just a follow-up question on the net interest income question. The net interest revenues, Mr. Loose of the Q4 figure. Is this a good run rate for the current year for the quarters? Or should it be lower, higher? Maybe you can elaborate on this. And then on the outlook for non-life insurance revenues, you say you expect a stable development. So don't you expect the effect from last year any more to happen again that due to higher insurance premiums, you benefit from higher fees, am I -- do I understand this correctly?

Yes, 2 very good questions. I'll start with the, let's say, easier one with the non-life insurance question. If you also look at the number of our customers in this segment, you will see that there was a small dip in the last quarter. And this and also the outlook for next year has something to do with each other, but meaning that we've, let's say, looked at our customers and we, let's say, found some customers where we -- with the overall margin, we're not really happy and that's due to margin improvement, there were some, let's say, cuts in contract relationship in the segment of -- in the industrial brokerage area. Nevertheless, with this step, we will see even better margins in this segment. And therefore, the revenues we expect are stable, but the margin is positive. If you would -- typical question from your side could be, can you calculate this without, let's say, the customers, which we now excluded. If we took out these higher customers, we had -- would have -- would see the performance revenue increase of around 6% in 2024. And this underlines that we're still positive for this segment and not only for '24, but also for the following years. Now comes the more complicated question, the interest -- let's say, outlook for the interest income of '24. This obviously depends, number one, what will be the interest rate development of the ECB. At the moment from today on, it's stable, but we expect interest rate results going down out of starting mid-2024. And the second question, obviously, how intense will be the fight for margins, the fight for assets on the balance sheet in '24. What we expect at the moment is, let's say, a little bit more positive development in Q1 and Q2 and a little bit, let's say, less positive development still on a high level, starting from Q3 onwards.

So this means Q1......

I hope this answered your questions.

Yes. It does partially. So Q1 would be on the Q4 level?

I would expect a little bit higher.

So it seems we've no further questions in the moment. And this brings us to the end of our conference. Should you have any questions later on, please do not hesitate to contact us. And a recording of our conference today will be available on our website later on today. We thank you for your attention and wish you a good day. Goodbye from Wiesloch.

Bye. Thank you.