MOL Magyar Olaj- és Gázipari Nyilvánosan Muködo Részvénytársaság (MOL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to MOL's Capital Market Update Call. My name is Marton Teremi, Head of Investor Relations. And as usual, we have a strong lineup for this call as well, while we would like to discuss most strategic directions set until 2030 and beyond. We have Dr. Gyorgy Bacsa, Executive Vice President of Group Strategic Operations and Corporate Development, who will cover the topics that are relevant to group level, while the business unit level objectives and targets will be presented by their respective heads, namely Mr. [ Zsombor Marton ] Executive Vice President of Upstream; Mr. Peter Ratatics, Executive Vice President of Consumer Services; Mr. Gabriel Szabo, Executive Vice President of Downstream, Mr. [ Zsolt Petho ] Head of Circular Economy Services; and Mr. Peter Labancz, Senior Vice President of Industrial and Corporate Services. We use Microsoft Teams as a platform to all our conference call. The presentation can be downloaded from our website at molgroup.info and we will be referring the slides. After the presentation, we will move to a Q&A session, where you will have the chance to ask questions by using the raise your hand functionalities. [Operator Instructions]. Before we start, I would like to draw your attention to the cautionary statement on Slide #2. Let me now pass the floor to Mr. Bacsa, who will discuss the evolution of MOL's strategy and [indiscernible].

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining the call. Just as for the introduction or recap for those who are not so familiar with the past history of MOL's strategy. I would like to give you a short summary. 2016, we officially announced the MOL 2030 Enter Tomorrow strategy. At that time, I think we were one of the first players in the industry who recognized that we have to start diversification. Diversification in product portfolio, diversification in our supply, goods so on and so on. There will be change, change in technologies as well as change in demand structure. So beyond the fossil fuels, we have to invest in new product lines. In 2016, so that's why we announced some of the pillars that we constantly repeated later [indiscernible] backend transformation with [ diversification ] from fuel-to-petchem production. The other one was the growth in the Consumer Services, the other one was [ steering ] operation to a more sustainable solution, both in terms of production and in operational efficiency. So also energy efficiency and having more and more low carbon investments or not fossil-based investment. By 2021, so after the first 5 years of experience, we issued a strategy update. One of the reasons was, of course, the experience during the COVID and the turn in the global economic growth into more declining or more volatile environment. The other one was the European green deal implications fit for [indiscernible] and many policies that were involved in the Europe. So in 2021, we issued a strategy update, more focus on the green transition, on the ESG targets, on low carbon investments and, of course, on CO2 [ HSC ]target setting. Now in 2024, we have practically already off of the way behind us. So I think it's the right time to make first a summary what we achieved, what we are lagging behind, what we have to prioritize and what we have to deprioritize in our strategy. Lots of things has happened also up to 2021 since -- after the post-COVID era is also painted with high volatility, lots of challenges, changing environment, both in terms of economic environment and regulatory environment. And also, the outlooks are not comparable to the last decade economic growth driven -- low interest rate-driven environment. I think we have to -- a strategy, we continuously have to address all the sustainability aspects, the stability aspect. So having a stability in supply, having self sufficiency; and the third one, which is sometimes it's very [ ignored ] by certain policymakers is the profitability and the competitiveness. I think these are the 3 aspects that we are [ operating ] in our strategy priority setting and the target setting for '25 and 2030. If you go to the next page in the presentation, first, we start with a summary. A summary of our 2021 strategic update targets and their status of their delivery. As you can see on the line, I just would like to quickly remind you, most of our targets are not just simply delivered on time but even over delivery. So we over-performed many of our set specific targets. We are very proud that in our core traditional businesses, the EBITDA targets or the simplified free cash flow targets are delivered and even over-performed. So if you look at the E&P, we are very proud that we managed to decline, managed to decline in our core traditional assets and in Europe. The CEE year-on-year baseline decline is kept at 1% in the last years. The other amount of simplified free cash flow delivery from the targeted $1.8 billion, at least for '21 and '25, even in '21 and '23, we already delivered $3.7 billion. We also managed active portfolio optimization since now just we acquired new regions or new core regions like [ capacity ] and the region, and we managed to put alive some of the standard assets like [indiscernible] but we also managed to make the right exits, right time, right value exits from the North Sea, from the U.K. before all the big ways in the regulatory and the order for [ North ] celebration. And also, we managed to exit from Angola as well, which was also a long-standing small-scale asset in our portfolio. In Downstream, I think here, I would like to highlight also the good EBITDA delivery of the downstream. I think we retained all market positions in our core wholesale market. We extended our presence, mainly in Slovenia and Poland and we are, of course, in a take of further market expansion. We managed to deliver [ $150 million ] efficiency improvement, execution is underway and these are sustainable efficiency improvements in our portfolio. The results of it will be seen later on as we talk about staying business CapEx and all other efficiency harvest that we are projecting for the coming years. In the fuel-to-petchem transformation, I will talk a little bit later. Here, we have a more mixed picture. We have our strategic projects on track. We have many fuel-to-petchem transformation projects ongoing and close to completion. Most of them will happen this year as we foresee that. Definitely, here, we have some [ confluence ] that I will explain later. In the Consumer Services, the 2025 target is already met practically in '23, so increased both in fuel and the nonfuel segment, increase stake in the nonfuel segment contribution, 34% from the 24%. So more 10 percentage points increase in the total margin stake of the nonfuel segment. I think this is one of the biggest success story for fresh [indiscernible] program and the related FMCG market employment. The network size also increased, and we have new core markets in Poland and Slovenia [ ended ] into a captive market, captive fuel and nonfuel market. Other big steps in our strategy in the circular economy, we made a major starting to the waste management, integrating waste into a portfolio, looking at circular economy of waste management from the integrated portfolio perspective. We have the concession for Hungary, and we have the investment plan and we have the target for our base management to become definitely as a core fundamental segment of circular economy. In the sustainability targets, we are proportionally of time-wise in [ 30% ] GHG, Scope 1, Scope 2 emission decrease on a like-for-like basis. That's compared to 30% target by 2030 is proportional and in line with the implementation. Here we have an updates since -- based on the regulatory descriptions, but also to have a more transplant picture. In this -- that in the [ present ] strategy update we will issue absolute targets as well, not only like-for-like comparisons. And the other ESG target was the Taxonomy aligned CapEx. And here, I would turn to the second part of the discussion that where we are behind or where we have to the realize proposition in details. In the Taxonomy aligned CapEx, we have a goal set in 2021 that we share reached the [ as we retesting ] the aligned 50% of the CapEx of all of the recurrent spending by 2030. In 2022, we were at 4.8%. The 50% goal for 2030 is, I would say, not only doubtful, but not reasonable and doesn't really make sense in our industry. I just would like to highlight 2 changes that happened. The Taxonomy is up to '21, in the course of the last years, are defined stricter than we anticipated before. Under current definition, for example, in the most of the [ expansion ] come across, it is impossible to fit in to the taxonomy alignment. And definitely taxonomy alignment is a narrow description then talking about low carbon, taking lean, talking about emission, talking about sustainable fuels, alternatives at least for [indiscernible]. So what's the previously considered small sites to be taxonomy aligned based on the current definition, per se, we are not. So that end, we are working on sustainable, competitive and self-sufficient portfolio mix. So that's why in our current strategy revision, we will later talk about green and low carbon CapEx, which is in line with the changed communication and changed target setting [ our peer ] in the industry as well. Since we are in the chemical, oil and gas industries strong position. So we have to align strategies that to the business and industrial and technology reality. So we are better issuing smart dream targets, smart meaning they're deliverable, implementable because we have the technology available, we have the business case, which is supporting them. And these are also I would say, in line with the long-term green deal target, and these are also leading to the same carbon neutral goals by 2050. But they are achievable. They are timely deliverable in the next 6 years horizon, and we can find a business case to support them. And all other CapEx spending has been released as we highlight this as something that we have resources technical, human, financial resources [ deliverables ]. The other one I would like to go back is the fuel-to-petchem [ road ]. We set out in 2016 and 2021, we reinforced it. But under current market expectations and market conditions, taking into account the demand for traditional fuel, taking in -- which is a high segment, stable demand so far, especially in the core markets and especially [ eased ] from us by the Eastern market. So that's how we think that further strategy of fuel-to-petchem road is not economic and not justified. The petchem margins are low, the demand, the recession fees and the demand in the -- demand decline is not justifying further high scale or big-scale to capital investments in our core markets. So we are rather focusing on margin and efficiency-driven smaller-scale projects, and we are improving our product portfolio mix to give more [ derivative ] more bigger margin petrochemical products to customers. So we will not give up the petrochemical investment, but we are shifting the focus on the fuel-to-petchem diversification in terms of how to -- diversify our petchem portfolio mix, and to have a more -- have a bigger margin product portfolio. If you go to the key messages and key targets of our new updated strategy. First slide, I would like to just to setting a context. Previously, I mentioned that in the current circumstances that volatility and challenges are higher than ever before. We have to give almost, I would say, equal rate to the 3 aspects of our strategy. The sustainability part, so the green transition. The affordability of competitiveness, profitability, as you would like to understand depending which aspect you're thinking and the supply security of the stability of the self-sufficient part of it. Since we cannot over such any element or any aspects at the [ pool judgment ] of the others. There is a consumer expectation of stable, affordable supply of feedstock, which is driving the industry, which is giving energy [indiscernible] there is increase in geopolitical tension. So there's a need for self sufficiency. There is a need for security of supply roles, and there's a need to secure your markets. There are trading goods, which are going against each other -- differing -- distancing from each other more and more. So we have to work on improved European competitiveness. This is our core market. This is our home turf. We have to stay profitable here, and we have to increase our profitability and competitiveness here as well also taking into the opportunities, internationally especially in some of the segments that international presence has already given or it's just that backdoor of core market. The sustainability regulations being [ honored ] safe for compliance. And as I mentioned, we are implementing a smart green CapEx program, not pure taxonomy-driven CapEx program since we believe that the goals can be achieved only if there is a supporting business case and technology behind. So all answers just to put it also in a further context that -- I think that the strategy is quite clear in terms of that we will continue to invest into the transformation, both in the petchem where we are focusing on medium-sized, small-sized investments. We also reinvest into the sustainable downstream portfolio. So we have [ green ] alternatives already available in hydrogen, in recycling and biogas opportunities. We have opportunities in renewable energy generation and usage as well and, of course, integrating the waste. The waste management is not only a concession, the waste management is a raw material, which is valuable for the entire industry into bigger regions as well. So in all regions, I think we are starting to integrate these waste collection and these recycling activities also into the supply security. I think maintaining the security of supply and maintaining the self-sufficiency is also, I think we highlighted that how important is in the upcoming years. In the year, we have to still focus on the low break-even and the high cash generation capability of our upstream portfolio. And the hydrocarbon prices are also volatile. They saw historical high and sharp decline in hydrocarbon prices. That's why I think this volatility and the integrated model -- model has, of course, natural hedging, actually [ we missed that ]. In terms of fuel strategy, we have to invest into the security of supply for routes. We have to invest in the crude diversification, but we still focus on exploiting the existing fuel market potential. There is healthy demand in our region and there is healthy demand and growing demand [ East ] of us as well. So these opportunities, we shall also capture, we shall also adapt this west to east shift of demand in terms of fuel for that. In the mobility, our target should be that we certify the mobility system, we provide all the alternative fuels received. However, we have to take into account the pace -- the changing pace of certain alternative like EV infrastructure development. And if there is a delayed ramp up, if there is a slowing, of course, all investments to be adjusted as well. So in Consumer Services in retail, generally in fuel and nonfuel retail growth is still [ driven ]. And that's why we will talk later on. We also wanted -- we increase our EBITDA target for the consumer services for the retail. So some of the -- next one is the -- where we are now, we are leading ONG player in the CEE region, and we have a strong presence in [indiscernible] and the Pakistan area in our upstream business. We are building on these strongholds. We are building on this strong region in presence. We want to keep the leading position in terms of [indiscernible] we are #1 and #3 in most of the countries that we are present. We are looking at extending, taking or capturing the opportunities that are in front of us. And we are also strengthening our upstream regional approach as well with management because we believe that hydrocarbons is a global commodity is still a very profitable business, and we have to be part of it since we have [indiscernible] being successful if we have a selective and careful [ core ] region approach. If you go to the other one. So we have a transition path ahead of us, and we have a robust operation that is the core fundamental of this one. So if you look at the 3 angles of this transitional strategy, which is always that in the core activities, is still leading potential growth, growth in terms of profitability and growth in terms of market presence and consumer reach. So in the upstream and [ downstream ], because they generate stable cash for the group. Refining and marketing, still a significant value, can be added by new markets, by extending markets and, of course, new product portfolio. Consumer services, the robust network that we're already having. We can still capture further margins, and that's why we are confident to increase our EBITDA targets for consumer services. Gas midstream is now -- which had one of the highest [ year ] last one, of course, there's a change in directions of transmission, but there -- it's a strategic value. It's a strategic asset portfolio. In geographical diversification, you can hear some sorts both in terms of Downstream but also in Upstream as well, that all business in the international upstream is not stabilized. We have core regions where we can show the low-cost [ tax revision ] [indiscernible]. So definitely, we managed to step out for the CEE Upstream every month to become in certain regions core player as well. And of course, in the new segments, the low-carbon circular, we already started investing into it. So waste management, I mentioned biogas production, we talked about the green hydrogen, the solar and other renewable was alternative mixes. In the Consumer Services, digitalization, the potential into digitalized retail and with the petrochemicals to have -- petrochemicals is not only a diversification of fuel, but also petrochemicals as a good margin product portfolio mix as well. So we [indiscernible] combination, of core, for [ some ] business, which is -- which we see in the diversified demand and industrial business atmosphere which stayed with us, and we have to hear continue to give the security of supply on a profitable manner, but also to have the new businesses, the low-carbon business and some of -- we have already started, we will keep on growing that. So [ positive with that? ] So if you go to the next slide. Of course, we have to the reshape the structure of capital expenditures. Here we only talk about organic CapEx program between '25 and '30. There is a slight increase in average 5 percentage points -- 5% increase in real terms of 2024 figures on the overall CapEx spending. There is a decrease in the [ same ] business type of CapEx in the [ industry ] these are mainly the result of the last decades continuous efficiency improvement, maintenance improvement, programs and energy efficiency programs as that. A lot of the lifetime extension projects we all delivered. So here in the coming 6 years, we comfortably say that the stay in business CapEx we can lower compared to the previous average. In terms of the strategic CapEx, the increase is taking the strategic CapEx and within the strategic CapEx, we increased the stake of the green CapEx. I mentioned that the green CapEx is not the taxonomy definition. Green CapEx -- everything, which is helping the low-carbon share of the group, which is helping the renewable progress share within the group and having all these sustainable [ non-fuel side ] elements of our production of our product portfolio. So this low-carbon is green CapEx where represents 30%, 40% of our CapEx spending, which is higher than the previous 10%, but definitely, it's something that we have to lower, which we had to reduce compared to the previous 50% taxonomy aligned CapEx spending escalation. This is, as I said, this is a smart green CapEx program, which is very durable, which has a business case, which has the technology, and we have the implementation capability behind. So we think that this is a [indiscernible] defined routes forward until 2030. And this also gives us the possibility to meet the 2030 ESG targets. So if you go to the next page, here in the ESG targets, we had [indiscernible] of our targets. On a like-for-like basis, we increased the 25% Scope 1, Scope 2 decrease to 33%, so 30% to 33%, and in absolute figures compared to 2019, we announced that we will decrease it by 25%. So practically, with the new businesses, we add on the new investment type of businesses. This will still deliver comparison to 2019, 25% absolute reduction of the greenhouse gas emission. We haven't set segment level emission targets, because we would like to maintain the flexibility of allocating resources in the -- where we have the most significant impact. We focused primarily on Scope 1 and Scope 2 but we are also addressing the Scope 3 emissions, which, of course, is an inherent part of our value chain because we are [ best reproducing ] fuel that it represents Scope 3 emissions. We expect to decrease between 5% to 10% in absolute Scope 3 emission by 2030. It is also demand driven. So of course, it can -- it is not only just technology, but also local and [ digital demand-driven question ]. We also building the greenhouse gas emission reduction and the [ HSC ] TRIR recordable injury rate targets into a management incentive scheme. So it is already part of our compensation -- internal compensation scheme. So if you go to the next slide. So if I talk about our ESG targets, we reinforced 2030 ESG targets, not only in the climate and environment, which I discussed before, also in the [ HSE ] part, zero fatality, TRIR by 2030 below 1.1 for the core activities, and also process safety events, number reduction. People and inclusion for women in management, the targeted now it increased 30% by 2030. Sustainable employee engagement, we shall keep at minimum 75% and the 50% of our social investment should have been dedicated to the local communities. Integrity and transparency, we also put it at the highest standard. Ethical compliance and training 100% for zero tolerance. And in the procurement and the procurement policies, we also enforced GHG emission targets in our supply chain, so subcontractors and suppliers share will be [ complied ] aspects. So now I would like to stop here. I'll come back a little bit later to talk about the CapEx in details. But now I hand over to Gabriel Szabo to cover downstream part.

Thank you very much, Gyorgy. So good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Let me continue with the downstream part. I've prepared for today 4 slides, and we can get to the first one, which you might remember because I presented this slide within our Shape to Tomorrow 2030-plus Strategy 3 years ago back in 2021. So we imagine more group and especially our Downstream division in 2050 as a sustainable company both in chemicals and in mobility. So there is no major change in terms of our vision, and we follow our legacy as a successful company. More downstream regional primacy will be based on excelling in meeting 2 basic consumer demands. This is sustainable chemicals and the second power in mobility to keep our position #1 in the region. So we have to look behind these 2 business areas, and there are 4 common layers there. First one is efficiency. So we are very much aware that the cost efficiency and productivity are the competitive advantage, and we should continuously maintain it as a baseline of our operation. Energy efficiency is closely connected with the source of energy as the traditional fossil fuel electricity production is levied by CO2 tax. In this respect, we believe in green renewable energy, and that will be further presented by my colleague, Peter Labancz. But we go further, and we think that the circular economy is the answer for both CO2 emissions and preservation of natural resources. All these 3 layers are closely connected and have a significant impact on our asset portfolio, which in 2050 will consist of very much recalibrated to additional asset pool and new investments as well. So all in all, we lead the transition in an intelligent way, as Gyorgy mentioned it, enhancing efficiency and creating value in a sustainable way via low-carbon and circularity. One would comment that our Vision 2050 is nice or even correct, but we are here to present how we are going to do the transition itself and how we create the value in midterm as well. So the trick, as you may recognize, is how to get to 2050, what are the steps in transformation journey. And the big question is what is expected in money terms during the challenging times of energy transition. So let me get to my second slide, and let's focus on the period till 2030. Actually, at the end of 2022, we created -- divided the whole downstream value chain into 3 business lines. This is the Fuels, the chemicals, and New and Sustainable businesses. So Fuels, what we are going to do there, we would like to keep the [ pattern ]. We have been successfully performing so far. So we believe that at least till the end of the decade, do we lock in the market potential by keeping the market and profitability or even we increase our exposure to the Eastern region. Beside of it, we will enhance our fuel portfolio by new products, new alternative fuels and also new services mainly in the car business. The new products I will describe shortly. Seeing the challenges of the chemical industry phase today. So as Mr. Bacsa mentioned it, we also recalibrated our investment steps in petchemization. So in 2021, we said that we would like to transfer the fuel molecules to petchem molecules in a few steps. Now we would like to rather invest very cautiously. We believe in chemicals. And we have been long enough in this industry to understand that the chemical market is profitable in mid, long term, but we would like to grow via rather midsized projects. We are able to accomplish, as mentioned before, the [indiscernible] projects. We continue with our MSA projects, metathesis and propylene [ 3 ] enhancement and we are having several other midsized projects in the pipeline. Further in [ marine ] chemicals, we believe that the circular economy will play a crucial role as, for example, sustainable feed. And with this, let me raise your attention to our new and sustainable businesses. In this division, we target new value chains as biogas, as hydrogen, but also small and mid-scale projects, which ones developed get to the fuel and chemical division as, for example, recycling projects. This new and sustainable organization is also responsible and supervises the total CO2 emissions and CO2 projects of the group via the so-called CO2 Board, which we established 2 years ago. It is very much important to mention that besides of the sustainability, we do not lose our focus on business performance, which, of course, leads us to profitability and asset efficiency. The transformation will overall support our EBITDA. We aim at keeping the [ $1.2 billion ] EBITDA delivery on average. Efficiency will continue to be at the forefront of our thinking. As mentioned, we are on a good way to achieve $150 million cost efficiency by 2025, mainly coming from our production units. In terms of production units, the refineries, we remain in Hungary and Slovakia, our refineries will remain in the top quartile in terms of cash margin over the full strategic horizon. Important to notice that the efficient asset is also a sustainable asset. Beyond the more structural sustainability transformation, we are also targeting energy consumption. And in terms of this, we are targeting in the better half of the benchmark group by the end of the decade. Now let's get to my first slide, please. And here, let me share with you a few details on the topic, which is very, very exciting. And this is the circularity, how the kind of ecosystem will look like. So we think that circularity is a very central concept to how we are driving to improve our efficiency, mainly energy efficiency, sustainability and also appeal to our customers. There are many, many projects related to the circular economy in various phases. So let me first highlight that while we are firm in our ambition to rely on circularity-based solutions, it is in many instances, to be deciding on case by case, whether we will internalize the capacities by investments, and by this, I mean, either organic or inorganic or by buying the products from the third parties. This decision, of course, will be made on the economic basis. So we will check the profitability of projects and the opportunities. Within the circularity and within this ecosystem, which you can see, there are 3 main directions there. So we would like to use waste as alternative feedstock and not just the waste feedstock for our refinery, for our petrochemical business, but also we would like to use within the circularity, the energy production from municipal waste. You will learn today that -- within the waste management, there is roughly 1.5 million tonnes of waste only in Hungary and of course, the downstream is keen to utilize part of it. So in terms of the alternative feedstock for refining, we aim to increase the feedstock consumption via co-processing, via waste oil, I mean, noncoking recovery, recycled carbon fuel, via [ pyrolysis ] of municipal and industrial waste, and that is also hydrogen which, I believe, should be mentioned here. So we are completing our lighthouse investment, 10 megawatts projects, electrolyzer and then in refinery as we speak. Then we would like to use this alternative feedstock in petrochemicals. So first place, this is a mechanical recycling, where part of the waste will come from our waste management, but we also expect to look for external partners who will be able to supply us with the feedstock. The other part is the chemical recycling, which will be very much needed for polyolefin production and feedstock will be covered by different waste streams. There is also energy production mentioned. We will be relying more on renewables in terms of satisfying our energy need. We plan to recover some of the energy content of waste as a key aspect, that is why waste incineration projects are also on our agenda. Moreover, there is a biogas, which will be utilized more extensively than currently. And this area we acquired biogas production plant in Hungary in 2023. So my last slide is the translation of all I have talked about to how it will affect our CapEx budget. Overall, what you can see, we expect that around $2.5 billion of CapEx will be spent for transformational purposes, and $2.5 billion on sustained type of CapEx. Overall, the CapEx mix reflects our strategic directions perfectly. There is a low carbon CapEx, which will be focused in both traditional refining and petchem wind energy efficiency being a key element, there is a petchem CapEx having a larger foothold in our CapEx than in the current revenue mix showing our commitment to petchemization. And as I mentioned, not done in 1, 2 major steps, but rather via several midsized CapEx projects. And there is several times mentioned supply security investments, which aim to get an independence and to decrease our exposure on Russian crude. Now let me highlight the process how we will conduct our investment. Our aim is to decide on our investments based on the return profiles and we will be very, very selective and decide case by case. On that note, it's always a choice to have capacities built out in-house, what I mentioned, the organic investment or we can acquire the competence and capacities from the market via inorganic investment or by the products we need instead. I believe that with this balanced approach, we can ensure the long-term profitability of our downstream business. And with this, let me pass the over to my colleague, Peter Labancz, who will sum up our strategy in the renewables. Thank you very much.

Thank you, Gabriel. And let me also welcome everyone on the call. I would try to be short and concise and describe you how we imagine and how we plan to expand ourselves into the renewable electricity base. So first about the demand. As Gabriel also mentioned, we are just about to close the 10-megawatt hydrogen project, clean hydrogen project, a lighthouse project in the [ new ] refinery. As this electrolyzer also our future brand electrolyzers would be fueled and supplied by renewable energy -- renewable electricity. Couple that with an ambitious decarbonization road map that is ahead of us. It is fair to say it is [indiscernible] installed. It is set best that more groups green electricity demand is increasing. Our expectation that this would mean about 2,500 gigawatt hour of demand, what we see in -- from renewable sources. To put it into a perspective, last year or 2022, more groups electricity demand was about 2,000 gigawatt hours. So it is fair to say that the electricity consumption and the demand of the group will dramatically increase. And the majority of those would be set to be come from green electricity sources. So then let's also talk about is how we get that and how to do it. As we see the demand is located and centered around our flagship countries, in the downstream countries of ours, so the [indiscernible] flagship countries. It is also defining a geographical and technological barrier or narrowing down our opportunities in both type of renewable energies and technologies we are able to invest into. Currently, the most valuable is the [ Photovoltaic ] [indiscernible] solar power plants. And in that regard, the first step has been already taken. We already installed 44-megawatt capacities. But then also referring back to the previously stated supply security and the need for the diversification. These are also applicable for the renewable space of -- and renewable strategies of MOL Group. So what we are seeing and what we are planning in terms of diversification, we are seeing to [ foster ]. Currently, the solar is the most economical and the most valuable. So we believe that majority of those suppliers are going to come from these sources, yet we would definitely explore automatic sources beside the photovoltaic, so not all eggs in one basket strategy apply here. Complementing technologies are seen as a solution there as well. And the other way of -- the angle of diversification would be the classical maker by solution. We would continue to monitor what is the most viable to produce it or buy it on the market. So surely, we will build and acquire capacities ourselves, but we would carefully monitor whether it is most viable to make or buy. And then closing, I would also like to highlight that the renewable energies would also define a new space around us, which is around the storage. So the storage is to assure that it is economically viable to use the renewable energy sources. We will also venture into these areas. We would like to take our fair share in these growing market opportunities. And on that note, I would has divert to Mr. [ Zsolt Petho ] to guide us through the waste management strategy of MOL Group.

Thank you very much, Peter. And hello, everybody, good afternoon. Gabriel already had a great introduction of how waste management is integrated into our operation. But I really hope that after my presentation, you will even more deeply understand why we have this huge step and why we try to be the new business unit with the MOL Group. And we have been talking about waste management and how to enter waste management and how to get access to [ waste ] feedstock. In the past years and the Hungarian concession was really a great opportunity to enter this market and start the operation. So there was a tender regarding municipal waste management. In Hungary, we entered and we won the standard, which means that from last year, 1st of July, we started managing and coordinating municipal waste management in Hungary, and it's a long-term contract that we signed for 35 years. So our main strategic target is to almost double the recycling rate in Hungary, from the existing 35%, reaching 65% and another very important target set by the European Union is decrease the landfilling to 10%, which is currently 45% for almost half of the waste is landfilled. And these targets will very much contribute to providing or building circular economy in all Hungary. So it's not only within the energy industry, but really have been circular economy in the whole economy. Apart from these targets and by the way, I've been working for the company for 35 years. So I know the oil industry, and I started to learn waste management industry. And I really have now the opportunity to state that waste management as an industry, in general, very much lagging behind developed other industries such as oil industry, which I was familiar with. So to see there is great room for improvement and development, not only in the recycling but also in any type of efficiency, cost efficiency or [indiscernible] efficiency or just being simply increasing the income, for example, and increasing all the revenues. So I think that one of the mission will be to really improve the efficiency, transparency or even seeing that decreasing illegal activities and make it the whole industry really transparent. We also -- we already started some projects reaching landfillings -- 10% landfilling can only be achieved by building waste management plant, which is on our agenda and our first project was introducing depository fund system for the beverage bottles, reaching more than 90% of recycling of those products. And we will be as the winner of this concession, be responsible for the extended producer responsibility schemes, which by the way, provides great financial funding for our whole operation. So if we can go to the next slide, I think that I can talk about this for hours. But I think that the most important point here is that from 1st of July, we had or we took over the operation, the households and the companies, the partners, we provide service to practically didn't realize any big change. So in general, we can say that we takeover can be considered seamless and successful which was a great challenge for us, and now there is a continuous good operation. So from now on, let's say, from 2024, we really turn our intention and attention to be more efficient and starting optimizing the whole industry decrease in costs and increasing possible income through increased recycling rates. But I think despite of the fact that it's always good to have an efficient operation, our main goal and main motivation in line with the whole strategy, which has been provided to you and is presented right now that our main goal is to create great amount of waste for feedstock. And I can say that you can see in the slides that roughly 1/3 of the municipal solid waste we are managing, can be utilized in the open industry and can be agreed to help for the MOL Group as well to turn to circular economy. You can see some examples here, I think that plastic recycling is really important part. You can see the other examples. But I think that as we will learn waste management we can come together with our colleagues within the group to even more ideas how to utilize [ waste ] better. And I think that talking about that we will provide roughly $1.5 million. I think it's quite obvious that Downstream can be one of the biggest customers for us. And in general, managing the whole municipal solid base, I think that we can further not only to the energy industry, but the whole other industries, we will contribute to the circular economy transformation of the whole country of only the energy industry. And waste management, transformation and reaching almost twice as much recycling cannot be reached by operating the same way as today, so all obligation already in the concession contract, but also in line with our strategy and our targets, we are very much committed to invest and develop. And you can see this -- I would say that this is a minimum number that we will invest minimum USD 0.9 billion, that some part is improved in the existing infrastructure. And I think as I would like to highlight is the sorting facilities -- just to say that right now, sorting is like 80% manual, which is even talking about it, it's a terrible way of sorting waste that some people are doing it manually and in Western Europe and a more developed waste management companies, robotic or automatic or semi-automatic sorting is already a very good technology. So we start applying that and that's the plan in the next 5 years. We will try to -- we'll build sorting facilities, which will do the sorting automatically and in much better quality than today. Just as an example, so we will investigate all areas of waste management, and we are ready to develop and we invest to make it more efficient. I already talked about waste to energy plant and deposit refund system, which will be also a great part of this investment portfolio. So I think that -- I don't know what was the term maybe today used the term green CapEx. So I think that we can consider all these investments and all these CapEx as green CapEx really contributing to go to circular economy and really through low carbon achievements are reaching our goals. So our mission is really to create value by making waste more utilizable and not only for MOL group, but really benefiting the whole society and the industry of Hungary. And as a finishing sentence, I would like to pass the word to Péter Ratatics to talk about Consumer Services. Thank you very much.

Thank you very much, [indiscernible] and welcome, everyone. If you would compare the next slide to the previous strategic material what came out from the consumer services, that you much wouldn't be able to find significant difference. And that's intentional because I believe that the strategy what we set a few years ago, that's still very rock solid and that's the direction what we have to follow in order to deliver the additional results and benefits to the group. But the strategy still depends and stay on the 3 pillars, what we need to be followed in order to be successful. We need to develop further our competitiveness in order to be the regional leader in pure and convenience retailing. Here, the most important part is that we build our internal competencies, in-house competencies towards to the FMCG type of operation. The second pillar is the continuous improvement of the operational efficiency that's practically based on data analytics, everything, what you can measure, we can improve here. And in the current or the past several years, the energy crisis and also the inflationary environment where the wage pressure was a significant burden on our operation. The strong standardization or the optimization of the OpEx is extremely important. And the third leg is the diversification of the sales channel, both on digital channels and new store formats under the Fresh Corner umbrellas need to be further pushed, need to be further sophistication. We need some level of sophistication. In case of the mobility and the alternative fuels though, I have to emphasize that -- we have to accept that some of these aspirations, what we said earlier, are clearly demand driven. And it's not worth to be running in front of the demand. Alternative fuels or the mobility services that we entered quite a few years ago are not demanded at the scale. So we have to be on one had patient, on the other hand, consciously kind of slow down the investment towards that direction. It means that the rollout of the electric chargers or the extension of the car sharing services should wait. It wouldn't mean that we will stop it, but we will not push it with full extent. As a quick summary of the past few years, we have been successful at raising our presence in the retail fuel and nonfuel market with a combination of the organic or the inorganic or the acquisitions. I'm very, very proud of my team that the innovation based mostly on mobile digital channels have contributed significantly to larger market shares, better margins and also the operational efficiency, what we gained. If you turn the page to the more numeric targets, then you can see that, yes, the original 2025 EBITDA and also some other KPIs practically we have already achieved last year. So it was high time actually to set a new target to a bit kind of larger distance. So on the 2030 EBITDA target now -- from now is $1 billion and more importantly, that the free cash flow generation over on this kind of 5 years horizon between 2025 and 2030 would almost reach the $3 billion. So it will not just be our growth engine anymore, the consumer services, but also our cash engine. In order to achieve that, we consider a significant growth on the convenience sales increase or the nonfuel performance compared to 2021, we believe that we need to triple the performance, what we doubled in this past period. So there is a significant growth needed. On the fuel volume sales side, I think what we originally envisioned that much probably the reality, but the second part of the decade, actually, the fuel consumption will not increase further, but rather stagnate. And that would be the market environment where we have to succeed. With that, I truly believe that we need a very strong customer interaction, customer communication capability and also to measure and understand what the relevant services products for the customers would be. So this shall be strongly supported by the increasing active loyalty customer base. We believe that we will be able to reach 10 million active customers by the end of the decade. And that will create based on the digital platforms that we have additional business opportunities for us. And on the next slide, on the last slide, just a bit of an overview of the CapEx, what we need for the upcoming period. Our investment mix, we have focused mostly on the organic investments and we concentrate on the rollout of our nonfuel offers -- the general fresh corner concept, but also the further development of the new types of store formats. We need to better integrate our new acquisitions. And obviously, we need to invest towards -- to the more efficient operation of our real estate of our service station operations. In total, we expect that the Consumer Services organic CapEx will be around $1.4 million between 2025 and 2030. And that will mean that this transformation what we plan to finish by the end of the decade what we said earlier that really will contribute a significant free cash flow to do operation. So thanks very much. And with that, I will hand over the word to [indiscernible]. Thank you.

Thank you, Péter, and let me welcome everyone. So our Upstream strategy, similarly to the group focus is on the same 2 directions. Firstly, we strongly contribute to the energy supply security by committing to keep our hydrocarbon production above 90,000 oil equivalent -- better oil equivalent today for the next 5 years. We aim to do this with a low breakeven and super cash generation capability. We will keep our focus on production costs aimed to keep it in the range of $6 to $8 per barrel. And at the same time, we come in to deliver a healthy unit simplified free cash flow above $20 per barrel of oil equivalent. So all these grant us an optimal magnitude of natural hedge to the group's operations. Of course, needless to say, to be able to fulfill that commitment, we will go even more beyond our CEE home turf, and we aim to further diversify and high grade our international asset portfolio as well. Secondly, Upstream will continue to fund and be the engine of the green transformation should it be our own 1 or the groups. We will leverage our subsurface expertise in geothermal, lithium, CCS, as we consider these projects as natural value chain extension of our current competence which encompass innovative technologies to drive this transformation. So talking about the 3 pillars, as you know, MOL's Upstream portfolio is quite diverse already with a solid base of assets in our core CEE region, complemented with the international assets in Asia and Africa. We are generally comfortable with this current setup, which is well diversified and still has strong cash flow generation potential for the group. However, our portfolio is now set to become even more diverse with the addition of low-carbon initiatives, which I will talk about a little later. With regards to our traditional upstream assets in the CEE region, we will continue to keep in mind supply security costs in the region of MOL and maximize value from the assets here. We have a plan to identify several more opportunities to exploit synergies in terms of debottlenecking, infrastructure, simplification, energy efficiency and operating costs in general. We see value further in capitalizing on the group being present in neighboring countries and explore further opportunities in cross-border initiatives, specifically between INA and MOL. With regards to our international assets, we are rarely operating an asset currently alone, and we plan to keep it in that way in the future as well when we will talk about our portfolio going forward. We aim to be highly professional and trusted partner in the assets and in the countries we are currently present and we believe that this cannot only contribute to simply value generation for these assets, but also can open doors for us for further growth. So we will still continue to nurture strategic partnerships with local champions and other majors even beyond CEE. For that, we will rely much more on our key expertise in offshore and mature field management, global drilling and production optimization. So our target for our organic CapEx budget for the 6 years between '25 and '30 is $2 billion, ensuring a healthy flow of cash to the group. Most of this budget will be roughly equally shared between the CEE and the international portfolio with most investments relating to stabilize and increased production level and entering efficiency projects throughout our portfolio. In regards, especially to international portfolio, the diversification and the high-grading might also include potential divestment of assets when we see that its risk-to-return profile will not meet our expectations. In addition, we are also adding a new element of low carbon investments to our CapEx mix, and we believe that the first results of some of these investments can materialize already within the current strategic horizon until 2030. So on my last slide, how we exactly mean low carbon for Upstream. First, let me note that these initiatives are so far constrained to our CEE assets, namely Hungary and Croatia, but let's say big project by project regarding geothermal. Hungary and Croatia has relatively good geothermal potential, and we have successfully bid for licenses in both countries last year. These projects also carry expiration risk with a certain level of uncertainty. However, if these tests are successful, we currently believe that the geothermal production can start in 2029 latest. We aim also to generate here primary green electricity with a heat up site as we believe that this is going to be a non-weather-dependent green baseload and the sufficient low-carbon energy source for MOL. For the methane regulation, there are several regulations in the EU that have entered into force lately, and 1 of this is the methane regulation also targeting upstream operation. We will comply with these regulations and introduce 0 looking flaring, and we will install these necessary leakage and other monitoring sensors at our sites to comply with the regulation. On the CCS side, we believed and our approach is to think global and act local. And this is something that no player can really do alone. We have been quite deeply examining technologies in the past for a number of years. So far we have not found the appropriate partners to deploy this technology, but we will still continue to do our study work and seek partnerships as we still believe carbon capture and storage could become an important pillar for the low carbon in the future. And lastly, with regards to lithium, we have launched the pilot R&D project last year as well and found that the lithium concentration in the brine at one of our sites in Hungary is high enough to consider extraction. We are currently in the assessment of different extraction technologies. And after the selection of such technology, we will come to test production on site. And again, this is still uncertain and requires a lot of testing and still a lot of work to grow into a commercial scale. But we believe that this is a part of transformation, and we will take the right gradual steps in the R&D pilot works. The schedule is expected to start around 2028. So in summary, MOL E&P aims to contribute to the low carbon goals to the group by delivering on its efficiency targets and committed production. And with that, let me reinvite Gyorgy Bacsa to discuss group financials and conclude today's session.

Thank you, Just summing on the financials at the end. CapEx, we told a lot on all of the CapEx. I also would like to hire this is organic CapEx for the '25 to '30, so the 6 years covered by this program. Total organic CapEx level USD 11.6 billion. The split of the CapEx is USD $6.5 billion for stay in business that is sustain CapEx, USD 5.1 billion for strategic CapEx. And previously, it was same as mentioned at out this $5.1 billion, roughly $4 billion is all the CapEx because that's the kind of green or smart green CapEx or not to confuse it with taxonomy line. This is what we consider as part of the circular, the [indiscernible], and low-carbon strategy, which will lead us to the same goals also the European green deal setting for us for the low carbon era. This is an increase compared to previous stakes for various targets. In the previous updates, we rather talked about $1 billion investment now in these 6 years, we talk about the diverse portfolio of different investments in the CapEx programs negative of $4 billion. So renewal, growth and transformation simultaneously, the sustained CapEx or the stay in business CapEx in absolute figure is comparable to the previous time. So the previous 6 years, also spending. But here, I have to remind that the -- due to the efficiency programs, there's a bigger, more robust asset portfolio, we will deliver the same reliability and availability of assets. Next slide, please. And here, I think something that I would like to understand that the underlying and tactical make you understand that all assumptions are based on conservative set macro figures. So you can see the assumptions of breakeven, breakeven as for me that this CapEx program, so both the sustained CapEx and strategic CapEx including funding cost tax and other working capital related expenses and the base dividend, [indiscernible], and we aim to have funded on our operating profits, following full strategy and full sustained CapEx and dividend to recovered from operation. So we are not eating up or we are not eating into a financial headroom. And that's why we say that whatever a as a surplus on whatever we have available on financial headroom, these are all available for good inorganic investments, for reducing debt levels or refinancing debt and of course, distributing excellent results to shareholders after exceptionally good years. So I also would like if you see the figures, I also would like to know your attachment or macro forecasts are not based on these breakeven figures. These breakeven figures are there to give you an understanding that even throughout the 6 years the average of brand gas refinery margin and integrity margin. This whole program is financeable at the fund fundable by the own operation. However, I have to make a comment that here, we don't calculate it further significant extraordinary government tax. We would assume and we need to demand more stability in the government sales and taxation part because it can also straighten the delivery of the green CapEx spend and sustainability CapEx spend. So here, I think we are getting to the end of the presentation. And I think one of the key topic is the shareholder return that we have -- we can propose I think what we can always do is we continue on the dividend policy announced before, we presented a summary of that one. Post COVID, you can clearly see that MOL was offering double-digit dividend yield, including the base dividend and extraordinary dividend. The base dividend we increased by 50% last year. So there is a -- continuously we would like to keep up the competitiveness of our dividend policy. After extraordinary good years we offered a special dividend and the shareholders' meeting proven. It's a full discretion, of course, to shareholders on the side of support. We are proposing to stay on this competitive edge. We continue with the dividend policy. And of course, keeping up a pure practice of having base dividend because we believe that we plan to keep at a value and of course, offering extraordinary dividend after extraordinary good years. And also before the question-and-answer, I also would like to highlight that this call will not be about the actual dividend proposals after last year. So before you start asking about dividend of '23. This is not something that we are ready to answer in this call since it's undecided yet quarter will be proposed.

Thank you very much, gentlemen, for the presentation. So the follow-on part of the presentation concluded. [Operator Instructions] Anna, please.

Good day. Thank you very much for this very interesting and insightful presentation. I have several questions, if I may. And if I may, I will start with the free cash flow reach which you show in previous slides, it looked like you lowered the macro assumptions for the breakeven free cash flow from your previous strategy. Does it imply that you are even more confident in your cash flow generation potential. This would be my first question. The second would be on the CapEx side, and you said that you will be focused on return profiles. What is the targeted IRR guidance you have in mind for the new projects? And 1 more question on the dividend side, not for full year '23, but you put on slide that you expect some gradual growth for the base dividend. Do you have any rate in mind over the years? Or how should we look at it?

Okay. Thank you for the question. I think 1 is that -- so going to the breakeven assumptions. Yes, I think I wanted to make it clear, but these are not all assumptions for -- but how we see the next 6.5 years ahead of us as a kind of prevailing market condition. This is able to show that how resilient is our brand and it's that even on the low hydrocarbon price since this breakeven assumption for brand and for TTF gas is whether low or conservative and real market consumption. And of course, our refinery margin is also far from the prevailing one, and it's also the lower end. And regarding the petcare margin, it takes into account the volatility. And of course, we are also integrating rebalancing of the best technology, but it's still not an excess sign estimation on petcare margin. I think what it shows that the whole operation is resilient, robust enough and profitable enough that even under the conservative breakeven premise I said, it will be able to fund not only the ordinary sustained CapEx, but also the strategic CapEx, dividend and funding costs and taxes. As I said, of course, all in all, it's rather kind of making ensuring the investors and ensuring the key stakeholders, as you shareholders, this CapEx plan on the normal sale processes is deliverable on financial part. Of course, there's no hiccups, no big government levies or extra tax built into this model, but also we are not investing the company and cutting from the inorganic and other opportunities that use by delivering this increased slightly, I would say, in total CapEx terms, for planned. So this is regarding the breakeven. The other 1 is that business case. Yes, business case did for all CapEx investment, including the green CapEx as well. Of course, that business case is also regulatory [indiscernible] regulatory impacted. So in those business cases, we take into account both the subsidies and of course, the [indiscernible] that may occur. And we are also anticipating increase in cost of noncompliance that would be that way. So that's why emission reduction and compliance as, of course, a positive or a kind of value preserving what [indiscernible] value as well. We don't have IRR for this project [indiscernible]. We have, of course, made beverage cost risk of countries that needs to exceed that should deliver positive [indiscernible] in general, what it changes cut country or to say, not each country, but particularly country profile driven [indiscernible], but we expect from these investments also to deliver positive NPV, but also I'd say that since the cost of compliance will increase during the year, throughout the year, it's also taking into account in the valuations and with the business case. But also, as I mentioned, there are more limitations typical implementation resources and capabilities not the billing as of the affordability is the only question here. The fourth one, yes, on dividend, I would say that I cannot give guidance on the dividend proposals that we are booking up this year. I'm just saying that in the strategy, we said that for the next period, has to keep this -- the pattern that we started after the 2016 most we have to have a competitive base dividend. And of course, they are also that the high interest rate environment, peer groups dividend policies, but we also need to take into account more performance, all our performance and the big taxation that we also had to deliver last year.

Tamas Pletser from Erste Group.

I got a couple of questions. Let me start with them. First of all, on crude diversity, you mentioned in the presentation that you work on this. Where do you see yourself by 2030 to receive crude oil? Do you expect it to come from the sea or do you expect it come for Russia? That would be my first question. The second question is, am I correct with this understanding that this strategy includes only organic developments. It doesn't include any M&A. And do you expect or do you see any areas where you want to expand via acquisitions? That will be my second question. And the third question, you mentioned you want to build an incineration plant somewhere. Do you have already a place where you want to do it? Can you tell us a little bit more on this? And finally, on your indebtedness, what kind of net gearing do you see in the future? Do you want to keep the current low gearing? Or do you want to increase the indebtedness?

Tamas, Gabriel Szabo speaking. So thanks for your points. I will try to answer the first one. So in terms of the crude diversity, we believe we can conclude the projects within the group diversity in 2026. So once everything goes smooth, I believe from 27 on we will be able to process alternative crudes beside of the currently euros. So what will be in 2030, it will be a set of factors, I believe, which will influence our decision. Of course, that there will be political, technological and economical factors taken into consideration, what kind of crude is supplied to our refineries. And I believe my colleagues will answer the second and third question.

Second is what is strategy on inorganic. The strategy is that financial care does not set inorganic target, so -- and it does not include inorganic spending. It's only about the organic, but including also the information and the growth strategic CapEx needs of the organic projects that we can make on our asset base and our operational base, existing right now. Inorganic targets, of course, because they are, how to say, third-party dependent as that. We are constantly -- we are continuously aiming for inorganic growth as well. The headroom is there, the ability to grow inorganically in our segments and new businesses are available for us. So definitely, the directions where we would like to generate cash and increase our low carbon support to increase for traditional cash generating businesses. There, we are continuously looking for inorganic targets. We also mentioned some directions, where there is potential for further growth and -- further EBITDA growth. And I think, of course, that's why we had mentioned that the surplus that we may deliver on top of the breaking a set and of course, the headwind that we have for -- in the group, this is all can be [indiscernible] room for organic projects as well. So this is what wanted to mention and here, I also would like to mention we force on that we didn't change, but we didn't issue any kind of indebtedness strategic target, but we are also not revising concurrent giving net-debt-to-EBITDA guidance, not the so-called comfort zone guidance. So currently, we have a guidance that we stay under 1 and [indiscernible] and we have a comfort zone under 2. Of course, with this organic strategy, there's nothing to -- that would require us to change it. Of course, when we are talking about the future potential inorganic steps. We still aim to have this comfort zone, but that can change the actual guidance is if it happens, but there is nothing planned the time that we should build in.

Yes. And regarding the incinerator, we are still evaluating different locations. There is no decision yet. But I think there will be great citing the group. So I think that some more group sites viewed in the location at the end of the day.

Just for me to understand this correctly. So you say that the 90,000 barrels per day plus production target can be done only by the current portfolio. So you don't need any E&P acquisitions to reach this target. Do I understand this correctly?

The 90,000 -- so keeping for 5 years a 90,000 barrel of production assumes further international acquisitions. But in the CapEx, you always see the organic. We don't have a dedicated target neither a budget for that. We've been selective and focused for those barrels going forward. But the current portfolio will not be able to give that 90,000.

So you need to buy something for -- to reach that target. Okay. That's clear then.

Oleg, please go ahead.

Yes, the presentation. Oleg Galbur from Raiffeisen Bank International here. I have several questions. The first 2 are actually a bit longer. So please stay with me. Could you please -- speaking about the financial framework, could you please disclose the contribution of core business segments to the estimated less EBITDA of almost USD 17 billion for period of 2025, 2030. Because you have disclosed the 2025 EBITDA target only for Consumer Services. And I would wonder if you could also provide some visibility on the expected EBITDA in other core segments such as Downstream and Upstream, which together consume more than 60% of your cumulative CapEx. The reason I'm asking is that if you do a back on the envelope calculation based on the information we have provided so far in terms of EBITDA contribution, I would get to some USD 18 billion of EBITDA without including waste management and renewables. And I don't think that you have not assumed any contribution coming from these 2 new business areas as well. So that would be my first question. Secondly, in Consumer Services, you target a 40% volume increase by 25% and 43% by 2030. I assume this increase is mainly driven by the retail network expansion. But could you also tell us what level of like-for-like growth do you expect by 2025 and by 2030. And the last 2 questions are rather short. So first of all, if there is a sensitivity analysis to key macro drivers that you could disclose. And here, I refer to oil price, gas price, maybe refining margins and exchange rates. Then could you also disclose the macro assumptions used for your 2025, 2030 financial framework? And lastly, you are talking about midsized chemical projects going forward. Could you give us an idea what does it mean in terms of CapEx and development time for midsized projects in chemicals.

Some of the questions are going back to the saying that I actually mentioned that we will not -- we're not ready to give out the full set of macro assumptions which we are working in business valuation. So that's why I think that if you ask a little of the macro assumption of some 6 years, I would rather give you quite a bit answer. I mean I still think that print crisis interest rates will not come back, so higher rate of return, high end average cost of capital share be used on than [indiscernible]. Second, we still believe that the higher energy prices stay with us. So that's why energy consumption, the cost driver. And of course, it will affect the margin span. Third one, we think that the demand is -- the demand decline is a little bit shifted in terms of base at time, but it's still coming down the road. And I think it also -- there's a difference between the global demand, the Western European demand pattern in Eastern Europe demand pattern for the coming years. So that's why I think we gave you that in this strategy to give you in certain segment's EBITDA targets, like you could have that we give you a target for Retail what they will achieve target to achieve '25, and what they target to achieve by 2030. This is one part of their EBITDA target. We gave you a minimum EBITDA -- average EBITDA target and having the target that bouncing is ready to contribute to the operation. We gave you numeric targets or odometry targets for Upstream and also the past delivery of Upstream, which is very much hydrocarbon price, global hydrocarbon price related. So you can taking into account the current production or target is definitely key factor production and make the risk that we place stand in the coming 6 years to keep it up in certain hydrocarbon price, how much EBITDA it can generate. For the waste, the promised in our previous quarterly call that this year, we start reporting the waste. And we will give out guidances later on the growth. And of course, you can see last year, previously we already started reporting. In terms of the waste, we have a CapEx program variable, and we are also aiming to have it positive in terms of both an NPV and EBITDA contributor. But of course, it shall not be calculated in the magnitude of the big businesses, especially in the first period for -- during this investment period of our circular businesses. So all in all, I would say that the EUR 17 billion EBITDA for '25, '30 is not -- I would say, this is the breakeven scenario. So USD 40, EUR 15 even EUR 50-megawatt TTF, [indiscernible] core operation $2.8 billion EBITDA average per we deliver even at the breakeven scenario and anything above that is creating the surplus possibility, which I mentioned that could be for further organic, inorganic further reduction of indebtedness or paying a shareholder return. I think this is the -- how we should understand our assumptions. Let's be this portfolio with the strategy even in the very -- understanding they're very conservative assumptions on average close to EUR 3 billion in EBITDA is the performance of $2.8 billion into 6-year average. This is not more than to you. In certain segments, we give you the [indiscernible] in the other ones we give you a minimum consideration and the others, you can model it based on the [indiscernible] given the possibility that in place, we are updating the guidance is never later down the road, they're giving upfront the EBITDA guidance on for that one. Regarding the [indiscernible] I ask Gabriel to [indiscernible].

Yes. Thank you very much. So as you are very much aware, now currently, we have several chemical projects already in the pipeline, so under implementation. I would mention the big size project Polyol and in terms of the midsize. So there is Metathesis roughly EUR 200 million CapEx investment. Then we have the [indiscernible], so roughly EUR 100 million investments. In terms of the further projects in the pipeline, I would mention the mechanical recycling, I would mention the chemical recycling. So it means Polyol base chemicals and also lifetime expansion of our chemical facilities. And I believe there was also a question about macro and sensitivity.

Yes. And questions about consumer services.

Yes. Let me start with regards [indiscernible]. Oleg, I am Marton. We always include that analysis in our investor presentation. So I am happy to discuss that with you after this call.

Okay. And on the consumer service, please?

I can answer the consumer services. So on the Slide 28, if you can recall those numbers, then all these percentages were presented compared to 2021. So even the original growth this -- in case of the fuel volume increased, the 42% that was compared to 2021. And these numbers also include the recent acquisition. And compared to the original goal actually the revised goal is now 40% until 2025. And also, the 2030 goal is 43% that you should consider versus 2021. So it means with a different kind of angle or with a different translation that during the upcoming practically 6, 7 years, do we expect that the regional fuel market would rather stagnant or just slightly increase over on these horizons, so practically 3 percentage point what we believe that it will increase. If you need the number without the acquisition, I think I can come back to you later, but that's roughly a strong double digit, a bit above than 10%. So practically, around 15%, if I recall without the inorganic.

Jonathan, please go ahead.

Can you hear me?

Yes. We can hear you now.

Most of my questions were answered. But I was wondering, there's talk of, for example, investing in EV chargers. And you didn't give any like target some the penetration you want and how many you want by when is such a target not available. Another target I thought I might see would be the volume of recycled plastics that you'd be producing by the end of the period. Obviously, it's a big part of the waste business and also what you're doing in petrochemicals in general. So could you give numbers on [indiscernible].

Thank you. Péter Ratatics speaking. Let me answer the EV charger question. So yes, you're right that we don't disclose and we don't plan at the moment with a very precise actual number of the EV chargers that we plan to deploy. And the only reason is that if I would say that currently, they are operating 250 locations, 250 chargers. If I would say that -- sorry.

Go ahead, I'm sorry.

So if I would say that 500, this number will be 500 or 600 or 1,000, then I should also classify that what kind of EV chargers we would deploy. Will it be 50, DC 50, DC 150, DC 350. And that's actually the biggest kind of cost on at the moment, but we don't know. But what would be the market demand and also what will be the technological solution towards the EV cars in the close future. And that's why we are on the strategy at the moment that let's be cautious with the speed of the EV charger deployments because we believe that in the upcoming 1, 2 years, the automakers and also the EV charger producers, we have stabilized actually the technology what we prevail in the future. But we don't want to run ahead be faster than the market itself with these deployments. So in the upcoming 2 years, you can't expect from us significant CapEx spending towards to the EV charger deployments. But beyond that, I think after 25, but closer to the end of the decade, we will speed up those, but just part of the development of the market demand. And that's why we are a bit blurrish around the number of the EV chargers at the moment.

Yes. If I may answer the -- your part of the question related to the recycled volumes. So taking into consideration the legislation framework and our expectation in terms of this and also taking into account our targets, I would say that 150 kt could be used for kind of baseline for 2030.

[indiscernible], please go ahead.

I think you mentioned just recently that you expect only 3% fuel demand growth over the year planned period. Am I correct? I mean, it does it mean that it's less than 1% per year. Why are you so conservative? And what kind of demand growth are you seeing this year? So far, I think that's my first question. And secondly, just talking about waste management. So it seems like an interesting story, and you've talked a lot about this area. But do you have any financial aspirations, like what kind of EBITDA contribution do you expect from those projects in the next few years.

As far as the volume prediction concern, I would say that in the upcoming few years, the growth will be higher than 1% leverage a year. However, the second part of the next 5 years, the next 7 years, so closer to the end of the decade, '28, '29, 2030, the decline will start and that will overcompensate the first couple of year higher growth. So on average on this upcoming 6, 7 years, I think you're right that roughly 1% CAGR. But the dynamics is a bit different in the first couple of years than the last couple of years.

And can you tell us what kind of demand growth are you seeing this year so far?

I think it's around 1.8% or close to 2%.

And regarding waste management, I think it's too early to tell. So I wouldn't be comfortable to say a very long-term target with any confidence being or feeling realistic. We will start publishing the data or really reporting the data to you. I think that we'll monitor it together.

Tomasz Krukowski, please go ahead.

Well, actually all my questions have been answered.

Okay. Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation. I can see there are no more questions right now. You can of course contact Investor Relations any time if you have any so. Thank you to everyone. Goodbye.