MONY Group plc (MONY) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Moneysupermarket Preliminary Results 2023 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Peter Duffy, CEO. Please go ahead.

Well, good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Moneysupermarket Group's Full Year '23 Analyst Q&A. We've had a good year. Moneysupermarket Group is all about saving household's money, and that is exactly what we did last year with a record GBP 2.7 billion saved. The more we can help households save, the more the Group grows. So this meant record revenues for us of over GBP 430 million, that was growth of 11%, and EBITDA at GBP 132 million, which was up 14%. And that was on top of another strong year of strategic execution. Our data transformation is complete and our marketing infrastructure is firing on all cylinders. We are making great progress with the tech platform, and that's already allowed [ us ] to launch new initiatives in 2 key areas: firstly, what we're calling membership-based customer propositions, that's SuperSaveClub from Moneysupermarket, it's the MSE app, and of course, Quidco; and then secondly, we've also made big strides expanding the services that we offer to our partners. So all this means that we are now so much more than the original price comparison websites. We're a tech-based savings platform that not only supports our well-trusted brands of MoneySuperMarket, MoneySavingExpert and Quidco, but also other brands outside the group who want to offer comparison services. There is strength in our breadth. We're in the best shape ever to get after reducing our dependency on paid traffic to grow loyalty by unlocking rebuy and cross-buy and, in turn, growing revenue per user. Our performance in '23 and our confidence in continued strategic delivery means that we're delighted to have grown the dividend by 3%. So with that, I'm going to open for questions. First question, please.

[Operator Instructions] We will now take the first question from the line of Jo Barnet-Lamb from UBS.

I'm going to ask sort of two areas of questions, if that's okay. The first is on Insurance. With regards to Insurance growth, you sort of presented a little bit of a matrix in the presentation, I guess, 3 levers of 2023 outperformance: premium growth, product post-FCA, and market share. And then you have your different verticals, so Car and Home obviously being the most important. Can you just talk a little bit through those levers and the two verticals into 2024 to help build a little bit more detail around insurance expectations into 2024. I guess the key thing I'm building towards is in H2, when premium comps get tougher, should product and market share offset these headwinds? Maybe I'll stop and let you take that one because that's got quite a lot in there. And then I'll go on to my second question, which is on tenancy.

Great. Thanks, and really, really good to hear from you at UBS. So yes, I think it's a great question. Look, how would I describe that? There were two factors -- two big factors, I think, in terms of our performance in '23. So the first, obviously, the market and then the second, our performance. So let's just talk about the market. Premium inflation essentially accelerated across the course of '23, getting to circa 35% by the end of the year. I think what that means is if you're renewing your car insurance policy now, for example, you're probably still seeing significant price hikes on the price that you were presented 12 months ago. So that suggests that we would continue to have some reasonably good growth in certainly the first half of the year, but we're going to then begin to sort of phase into more significant comps as we get into the second half of the year, as your question kind of describes. Now in saying that, we've obviously made good progress in terms of market share. That's all about our efficient acquisition. It's about our proposition work. It's about our data work. It's about our B2B platform. And so to your point, we would hope and expect that we will continue to make progress across the course of '24 which, to some degree, is a tailwind to what we're seeing in the overall market. So I hope that answers your question.

Yes, that's helpful. Then on to my secondary question, if that's all right, which is around tenancy. So you discussed tenancy or sort of sponsored slots, Peter, in the presentation. These are obviously major drivers of some of the other marketplace-based businesses that many of us cover. You said it was up double-digit percentage. I guess, really a series of questions, trying to get a little bit more color and information around this quite exciting area. Firstly, can you give us some idea of the approximate scale of that business in absolute terms? Secondly, you mentioned rolling out beyond results pages. When we consider your sort of site architecture, what proportion of page visits at the moment is sort of tenancy available on? I'm just trying to consider how far through that rollout we are. Presumably incremental margins are very high. Could you just touch on that? And then finally, how meaningful a driver of group financials could that be? Apologies for the four-part question.

Yes. So I'm going to have to try and remember all those four parts, Jo, apologize if I forget any of them. So look, tenancy has now rolled out pretty much across all of the site from something that we trialed back in '22. And essentially, a customer can see a tenancy slot as they get search results delivered back in most of our categories now. And increasingly, those tenancy slots are segmented, so providers are able to target the cohorts of customers that are specifically wanting to. They really clearly marked as advertising slots for customers, and so they sit very nicely alongside our traditional comparison journeys. But there are opportunities for us to think about that more broadly and expand that across the course of the site. In terms of the numbers that you're talking about, we don't actually break out specific numbers both in terms of page visits, apartment -- you can have a look at it and see, but it's pretty widely available across the course of the site. And whilst the absolute numbers aren't in themselves enormously material at the moment, in terms of everything we're doing on provider services, where we think about tenancy plus data plus B2B, in time, I think that will become something that is more significant. So you should see it as one of a number of initiatives rather than something which free stands in its own right. Niall, would you add anything to that?

I think that's exactly right. I think we're excited. Through the course of this year, we've rolled it out more and more. There's probably more to do in terms of getting it across the site. So certainly as we went into '24, there will be some annualizing as well of what we've done in '23.

Sorry, just one follow-up. When we sort of think about that going forward then, so if it's rolled out across the rest of the site, is it that sort of like broadening out of targeting that will drive those revenues up? Or what are the major drivers behind pushing that further?

So I think as we can begin to offer providers more refined services to begin to target the cohorts of customers that they want to begin to speak to, that creates an opportunity for it to become a more sophisticated, more valuable channel for us. It's not about more slots to more places, it's about the quality of those slots to more targeted.

We will now take the next question from the line of Andrew Ross from Barclays.

My first one is a follow-up on Jo's first one on Insurance. So maybe just push you a bit harder in terms of what you're budgeting for the motor piece of insurance specifically as we get into the second half? And I guess what kind of gives us confidence about business couldn't go quite sharply negative if you start to see less of a tailwind from premium inflation. And then, the next, I guess, a bit of a question mark about what the underlying level of structural switching is post the FCA reforms in early '22? It would be helpful to get, I think, more granularity in terms of how conservatively you're budgeting for that in the second half and into '25? And then the second question is to ask you about the gross margin outlook for this year and how we should think about that.

Niall, do you want to pick up on both of those?

Sure. Thanks, Andrew. So I think with Insurance, I think what we've said is that we see toughening comps as we get into the second half. I think picking up on Peter's point, why are we seeing that. We're seeing that through the course of last year, we saw premium inflation grow, so low single digits up to 35% by the time we thought to November. So therefore, when we get looking at H1 this year we say, okay, well, then someone who's coming back to the site will see something material in terms of an increase. But as we get into the second half, we're basically saying we don't see that sort of same level of year-over-year. So we expect that to toughen as we get into the second half. So that's kind of the sort of how we see the inflation. But I think then the offset or some of the offset of that is think about -- thinking through that work we've done on gaining share. That will come into this year as well. So as we've gone through the year, we have taken more share, and our obviously expectation is that we're going to hold on to that as we go through and that will come through into the second half. And in terms of the sort of the piece about switching, I think look at the number of new products that have been introduced into the market since GIP has been introduced. So we've launched 96 products. Besides, the pace at which we've done that is a record pace in the history of Moneysupermarket. Those products really are a reflection or a reaction to GIP by the providers. They're kind of pointing the way to us there about how they're seeing the market play out. And that's true whether or not inflation exists or not. So that's the structural element of that market. So in a world of increased complexity, you now have different tiers, different types of products, new brands, all being launched on our site, increasing the complexity for the user. We think, therefore, our service becomes even more valuable in that environment and we'll probably see some of that play out in 2024. And so hopefully that is, number one, good gross margin. So gross profit, we're up 11% in the year, GBP 292 million. And in that, we've maintained gross margin. And I think you kind have got a mix of different things going on there. Clearly, Insurance has grown very, very strongly. That's been a tailwind for it. PPC and the work that we've done there has been a tailwind as well. And then that's been -- the other side of the coin, I guess, is B2B has grown very strongly. And obviously, Quidco is in the mix as well. So you've got those mixing effects that are going on inside the business. And as we look at each market in any individual year and we -- where we get gains in certain areas, we can look to reinvest in other areas whilst you'll get changes in the underlying vertical. So we'll make choices based on what's available to us. So you'll see that mixing effect every year as we go forward. And obviously, overall, what we're trying to do is grow the revenue and grow the profit.

Maybe just to follow back up on the first one. So it sounds as though you are expecting the motor premiums will stop increasing in the second half, maybe not go negative but definitely stop kind of going up the way they are. But are you still expecting the switching of motor insurance will grow in the second half or not?

So I think in terms of the inflation -- I mean, the inflation is coming through because providers are passing on the increased cost that they have in their businesses. So if you're looking at what some of the things that the providers are saying, they are saying that they're seeing their income ratio, their profitability ratios get back into the right place. So you take that in a range, you kind of -- that's why we're saying we're seeing that second half toughening comps. I think the structural piece, I think, again, I've looked at the number of new products that have been brought on to the market there. We think it's a different market even without the premium inflation cycle.

We will now take the next question from the line of Bridie Barrett from Stifel.

It's Bridie. Just a first point of clarification and then I have a question on Quidco. You're talking about momentum coming into the year being similar to that, that we saw in Q4. Could you just clarify whether we're talking about year-on-year growth in sort of low double digits continuing year-to-date? Or are you talking about the sort of same absolute level that you saw in Q4 kind of running into Q1? So that's just the first piece, please.

So I think we're talking about the trends that we're seeing in the market in terms of the -- what's happening in Money with interest rates playing out in savings borrowing, for example, or what's happening in car in terms of premium play. Those trends are playing out in the same way as we saw at the end of Q4. That's what we mean by that.

Okay. So you're not specifically talking about growth year-to-date.

No, we're talking about the trends in the markets.

Okay. Fine. And then on Quidco, I mean, obviously, the last year or so has been a little bit difficult with the macro and everything. And you're clearly making much more push on Quidco this year. Are you sort of budgeting, given all of the activity that you've got going on a return to growth in the current environment?

In terms of the work we've done in Quidco, we're very positive. Clearly, in the Q4 of this year, we took the choice to invest behind the brand and put TV advertising on for Quidco through -- and we will continue to back that up through Q1. So we're positive about the momentum that we've seen in the business, and clearly, we got that member growth momentum coming through into 2024.

And we said in the presentation as well, Bridie, but we will, at a later point in the year, starts to begin to introduce Quidco offers into the Money SuperSaveClub as well. So I think there's plenty of opportunity for Quidco going forward.

And then just finally, obviously, there's a lot of focus on motor insurance given premium inflation. But could you just update us in terms of the market environment in home insurance and then how you see that sort of playing out through the course of 2024?

Yes. In so many ways, it follows similar trends but sort of lags between 3 and 6 months, essentially. And I think that's how I would sort of -- that's how I would describe it. Providers naturally focus on the most profitable products first. That's where we've seen all the product innovation coming through. That product innovation is now starting to come through on home as well. That's where we started to see the premium inflation. That premium inflation is now catching up on home as well. So very similar trends, but I think see a 3- to 6-month lag on motor.

Okay. So potentially, if we start to see motor softening into H2, home should still kind of be a bit stronger through -- perhaps through the course of the end of the year? I mean, obviously, I know you don't have a crystal ball.

We don't have a crystal ball, but that's what we'd expect.

We will now take the next question from the line of Ciaran Donnelly from Berenberg.

A couple from myself. Firstly, look, I know there's a lot of moving parts, but can you help us understand, on average, what is the rough kind of gross margin differential between a switching customer that comes through SuperSaveClub and benefits from the rewards versus an average customer acquired via pay channel? I guess, look, are these loyalty customers margin-accretive based on a single transaction? Or is it predicated on multiple transactions? Just trying to understand the medium-term upside potential to margins. And anything you can say to help understand that would be great. And secondly, just in terms of your outlook, should we read into your comments that you expect performance to be above or below the current consensus range in terms of the average?

Okay. I'll take SuperSaveClub; Niall, want to pick up on outlook. So thanks for asking that, Ciaran. Look, we're really excited about SuperSaveClub. You remember that we trialed it in May. We rolled it out in September. We started off with 4 products that was Car, Home, Travel Insurance, and Broadband. We quickly added Mobile and Pet Insurance. We've now added credit monitoring. You'll see loans and credit cards going in, in the next few weeks and months as well and there's more to come. We also announced today that we're just shy of 200,000 customers joining the club. Look, the purpose of the club is two-fold. One is to acquire customers loan costs essentially, to reduce our dependence on third-party media. And thirdly -- secondly, begin to drive the revenue that we get from them because we encourage them to buy more products and services from them. Now naturally, it's really, really early doors. We're only sort of 4 or 5 months into the rollout. And the reason that we can't sort of share richer data at this point in time is that we need to make sure that what we see with the early adopting cohorts then becomes more typical of the cohorts who join us later on. But what we have said is that thematically, it's doing what we would expect it to do in that, we are acquiring customers directly rather than through expensive third-party media at a greater degree than we do on the core part of the business. And secondly, that we are seeing them go on to buy additional products and services from us at a greater rate than we see from customers in the core part of the business. So at this point, we can't really share any more detail because I think it's just genuinely too early to say. So yes, thematically, it's looking interesting. Let's wait and see how the numbers begin to mature, Ciaran. And then Niall, on outlook.

Yes. Thanks, Ciaran. So there's a large range here on the outlook. So it's bottom end GBP 133.8 million -- talking about EBITDA GBP 133.8 million to GBP 146.2 million. I think then, thematically then, we are seeing in our guidance for energy that we're not seeing a material -- any material increase over FY '23. I think some of that higher end of the range probably reflects people with larger amounts in for energy in 2024. And then we're seeing on insurance, think about that sort of hardening of comps through the year here and for some of the lower end of the range, there's an element there of insurance. We're kind of already at some of those numbers. So that's kind of the up and the down within the consensus range.

Okay. And so I mean, just in terms of indication versus the average, any comments on that?

It's in the range.

[Operator Instructions] We will now take the next question from the line of Rahul Chopra from HSBC.

I have 3 questions. I mean, coming back to energy market. I mean, obviously, the market stabilization charge is going to expect to end in March 2024. So I just wanted to understand basically what would it take energy market to return basically back besides the market stabilization charge, which we thought should have been a bit positive for the energy market. That's the first question. The second, you talked about mid-single digit -- sorry, low to mid-single-digit operating cost growth. Could you give a bit more sense in terms of how you're thinking in terms of pacing of marketing expenditure in 2024, given the step-up in SuperSaveClub launch and how should we think about the breakdown itself? And finally, in terms of capital allocation, I think we should expect it to net cash in '24. So I just wanted to understand your thought process of cash returns versus bolt on M&As in 2024 and how you're thinking about that?

Okay. Thanks, Rahul. I think, energy, now you want to do operating cost growth and capital allocation. So look just on Energy, just to recap, we had a small number of deals in '23. Obviously, wholesale prices are still high. There's still a high level of volatility. And to your question about what it takes for the markets to come back, I think that volatility needs to reduce significantly. So if you were a provider, you wouldn't want to be essentially [ be ] on the wrong side of that. So yes, the regulatory shift with market stabilization charge is helpful. Let's see what happens on acquisition tariffs. The cap is dropping to [ GBP 1,635 ] in April, that's the full of 15%. The cheapest fixed rate deal, I think, at the moment is something around [ GBP 1,750, ] so above that in terms of where we are. So clearly, what we want to happen is for wholesale prices to drop below the price cap. With a significant enough margin, the customers get a saving, and we want those wholesale prices to be a little bit more stable than we've seen up to now. And we think that they're probably the conditions that are required to begin to get the market moving again. Niall, do you want to pick up on costs?

Yes, sure. So Rahul, I think just pulling apart this year's number a little bit just to then kind of give context for '24. I think inside our distribution cost this year, we spent a little but extra 1.8, which means we're up 4% in distribution costs, marketing costs. We've done that on purpose. We decided to invest into TravelSupermarket and Quidco. And as I sort of look into next year, I wouldn't consider we'll be repeating that. And then for the rest of the operating costs, when we strip out the one-off around amortization and some like-for-like effects, we're seeing the underlying effect that is 6% up in 2023. So we're seeing low to mid-single digit for 2024 kind of reflects some of that efficiency coming through. But as I say, I wouldn't expect a repeat in terms of that ATG and Quidco.

And then capital allocation?

Capital allocation, you're right. We've got the last of the Quidco term loan repayment to be done this year, which we'll do in the second half. Then I think we think about capital allocation pretty simply. First, we invest for organic growth, then we make sure that we pay our dividend, then we think about M&A and then we think about any enhanced distributions to shareholders. So at any point in time, we'll run ourselves through that piece of analysis and decide what's the most appropriate action at that time.

Are there any more questions on the line, please?

There are no further questions on the audio -- sorry, one moment. There's one more question. We will now take the next question from Bridie Barrett from Stifel.

Sorry for jumping back on. But you haven't sort of spoken too much yet about the Money category side. Just wondered if you wouldn't mind kind of giving us a sense of how you see a falling interest rate environment for Moneysupermarket kind of net-net. Would you view that as a net positive on the whole as you move through the course of this year?

So if you -- I guess, again, taking -- using '23 as kind of context for the question, Bridie, what's happened in '23, we've obviously been at the end of a long run of increasing interest rates holding from around August. The effect that, that's had in the year on the banking side, which is the smaller part of the segment, is that we've had a record year in current accounts. Within savings accounts, we obviously had a very, very big one-off last year. So if you strip that out, we'd have also had a very good year in savings. On the flip side, the higher interest rate has definitely impacted on loans and mortgages in particular. So obviously, then you get into sort of crystal ball gazing as to what might happen to the interest rate, then it's hard to kind of say. But clearly, the bigger segment of money has been impacted this year by a higher interest rate. So you can see how that might play out, how that mix effect would play out if it goes in other directions.

Okay. And then sort of looking back, I mean, historically when you -- when the company has gone through a similar cycle, broadly speaking, is that how it played out?

So probably -- there's detail in every year, Bridie, in terms of mix effects and this and that. So it's hard to pick apart any particular thing. But you can see what's happened in '23. I think we'll just have to see how the mix plays out in '24.

Yes. I think the history from interest rates coming off from these sorts of levels is quite a long time ago really. So difficult to actually pull that experience back in, I think, Bridie. I'm being told that, Jo, you've got another question. Jo Barnet-Lamb.

We will now take the next question from Jo Barnet-Lamb from UBS.

So just one more for me. So you stated that the data transformation was complete. It sounds like this sort of enables the next phase of replatforming and product advancements, which sort of enabled the migration to this membership-based customer experience which, Peter, you've sort of been alluding to for some time. Peter, you sort of touched on some of that in the presentation. But can you talk a bit more about what the next phase sort of looks like and what we can sort of expect from the flow-through of that strategy into numbers? Like when can we expect to see that sort of flowing through? I think you sort of said with the launch of the clubs and the number of people involved, it's too early to sort of talk about economics, et cetera. But when should we see that then? And when should we see it flow into market?

Yes, Great. Thanks for asking that, Jo. So SuperSaveClub to work is infrastructure. And so that sits alongside the tech work. The tech work is really well advanced as well in terms of where we're getting to. And the point I was trying to make is already we're starting to then begin to launch the clubs, which we think are -- the clubs of the provider data are the things that are going to make a significant difference to the business overall. So I think because we sell annual contracts, difficult as this is, we're going to have to go through a couple of cycles before we begin to see this working. But we did launch the club fully in September. And so this time next year, we should have a richer view of what SuperSaveClub begins to look like. The app to Money, MSE, slightly different. It's all about content, it's about services which are more immediately available, albeit the Bill Buster is working in a different but similar sort of way in terms of reminding customers to sort their bills out once a year. But we've got some exciting new developments coming down the line there. So we should begin to have a look and expect hopefully some performance there. And then the provider services, we have touched on in a similar kind of way. What I said last time, and I think probably still holds true, is we should probably expect to see it in revenue growth first before we start to see it coming through in margin. So I'm hoping that '25 will start to be a year when we begin to recognize some of the benefits of this investment.

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand back over to Peter Duffy for closing remarks.

Do we have any questions come in directly? No, none. Well, look, thank you, everybody, for your time this morning. Really grateful for that. Obviously, Emma and the team are here all day. If you have any follow-up questions or you want to go into anything in some more detail, obviously, we're meeting some of you face-to-face. Looking forward to that. Otherwise, you know where we are. Please catch up us, if we can help at all, but thanks for joining. Cheers. Bye-bye.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.