Morgan Stanley (MS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Continuing right along, very pleased to have Morgan Stanley. If we could put up the first ARS question while I go through some housekeeping stuff. But representing Morgan Stanley today, very pleased to have Dan Simkowitz, who is Head of Investment Management and also Co-head of Firm Strategy. As we answer the first question, Leslie would be mad at me if I didn't read this, but this discussion may include forward-looking statements, which reflect Morgan Stanley management's current estimates and subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Morgan Stanley does not undertake to update the forward-looking statements in this discussion, which is copyrighted by Morgan Stanley, and may not be duplicated, reproduced without its consent, is not an offer to buy any security. So there, out of the way.

Thank you.

What I want to do is -- actually, we can put up the next ARS question while I jump in with Dan. So obviously, you run investment management, a great business. But I want to leverage the fact that you are Co-head of the Firm Strategy, have worked throughout Morgan Stanley and maybe ask you some more -- kind of broader Morgan Stanley industry questions. But one of the things that jumped out to me on the 2Q earnings call, James and Sharon were encouraging on the return of capital markets -- activity in capital markets, M&A. Are you still seeing some leading -- positively leading indicators across ISG businesses? And how does that translate for the third quarter, both for investment banking and sales and trading?

Sure. Well, thank you, Jason, for their time and everybody for coming. I would say we are more confident now than any time this year about an improved outlook for 2024. I think it's clear to us now that the first half of the second quarter was probably the low point in sentiment around capital markets and M&A. And I think what we're seeing now versus July is that we've moved from maybe sentiment shift or backlog building to early action and some real data points in the market. I think we're also seeing improved execution quality across the capital markets and M&A. And so I think that leads us to believe that 2024 should be meaningfully improved versus last year, and that we're in the midst of a sustainable recovery. When I ran capital markets -- August was always really an interesting month, especially when you came out of periods of uncertainty because you could either go home and just hope that the fall or September was better or you can start to move forward on some either quality situations or M&A that had some more urgency. And it was pretty clear. August, we were highly engaged. And so I think you saw a noticeable uptick in M&A announcements. There were LBO announcements in August, exceeded April and June combined. So there's no doubt that there's an increased confidence among corporation and PE firms. Now back to your question, there is a real lag in a lot of that revenue between announcement and revenue realization. So that's a third quarter comment. But it is sort of broad based. And I think foundationally, as we think about it, the credit markets, credit capital markets, are performing very well. So they're more expensive because of rates and the fact that some of the commercial banks have pulled back. But whether it's the public credit markets or the private credit market, as an example, they're all functioning well. So as an example, Subway I think, was one of the largest restaurant LBOs in history. We are the adviser of the buyer, but we did all the debt financing. Just in the last week, Enbridge's big energy company did a $14 billion deal, and we were the bridge provider, lead bridge provider, for $11 billion. So you've got functioning credit markets, which I think is key to that confidence point. And then the other element is it's starting to bleed through into equity market execution and improved equity markets. And so I think you've seen -- it starts in sort of hybrid capital. So we did a transaction with Blackstone. It's close to MSIM a little bit where they have a BDC. It's a credit vehicle, but it's executed in the equity market. So that got done well. It was a balance of institutional and wealth management owners. Apollo did a big convertible because they saw opportunities in the market. So that was interesting. The Enbridge I mentioned, the day after they announced the bridge and the M&A, they did $3 billion of equity. So we weren't seeing that in the first half year as an example. So we've got a couple of IPOs coming in the large-cap space. Our sense is broad, growth IPOs take 6 to 9 months to get through the process. But it gives us confidence that if we're on the current trajectory, if execution quality holds, you have a meaningfully better 2024 than we've had.

Interesting. Maybe shift gears to the retail side. Is sentiment continuing to improve? And maybe what trends are you seeing this quarter with the deposit dynamics and retail behavior?

Yes. I think in retail, they're starting to invest in the market. We saw that beginning summer in fixed income. I think we continue to see that with a little bit more duration in their investments, a little bit more credit risk. So in MSIM, for example, our private credit fund, they had their best month distributing into wealth management in 15 months. So you've seen a pick up a little bit in risk in the fixed income part of the wealth category. Money market funds, still pretty attractive at those rates. We're seeing a small modest, early equity move. We -- the wealth management clients were sort of frozen/equity outflows for much of the last 12 months. So it's just starting, but it's encouraging. It's consistent with the backdrop I mentioned around the capital markets execution. I would say the other element here is the asset retention, we're seeing, is pretty -- is phenomenal in Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. So regardless of where the client is allocating their assets, it's staying within the system. But as they deploy cash, we are seeing sweep balances impacted and some associated impact in the near term around NII. And then lastly, our sense is, looking back at history, as that confidence starts to build, it will get broader. So equity new issues, alternatives, you'll see that follow in terms of retail buying, retail sentiment.

Got it. Obviously, Basel III Endgame has gotten a lot of attention at this conference. Anything in that maybe translate in terms of how that kind of plays into from strategy and just how you kind of think about the overall impact?

I don't think it's going to -- it's not changing the strategic trajectory of Morgan Stanley. But the rules as proposed, the initial proposal, is very negative for U.S. consumer, U.S. economy. It's pretty clear, it's been commented on, that it will raise credit expenses and probably credit accessibility out there. I think the other element that you're hearing is it's incredibly inconsistent with the process we've been going over for the last decade around CCAR, extreme severely stressed scenarios where, if you think back over the last several years, the banks proved to be very, very capitalized. I think it's also inconsistent with the real -- the last decade, the banks have -- the large banks all dramatically raised their capital bases, and all played a really important role around the strength and stability of the global economy in real test, right, pandemic, inflation and rate and then the ring around some of the midsized bank of financial and liquidity as [ really direct stepping ] up out of the large banks. That's a bit clearly something that we're focused on. There's -- I think a comment period that's going to be really robust. We're engaged. We think the regulators are genuine, and that it's a real comment period and there's a real dialogue out there. But there are certain things which just don't make any sense, right? There's operational RWA. If you're a financial services company, that's exactly -- [ easy ] business is exactly what you want to do to make the financial institution more diverse and more durable. So we're highly engaged in that part of the comment period. I hope you would agree we have a pretty good track record of planning -- working through new capital rules. And so we were prepared for a whole bunch of outcomes, and we were carrying a fair amount of excess capital coming into that announcement. What that means and we all [ have guts ] around really fluid, the transition, the timing, what the final rule is. But as written and fully phased in, our initial estimates are -- that are capital will be approximately in and around the regulatory requirement at the end of the phased-in process. We -- just like the Fed said, that means the dividend is great. The dividend strategy is intact, but we'll be fully phased in and as written. And again, we're not agreeing with as written to be clear, and I think you've heard that throughout the past couple of days. But under that circumstance, we're flat to the regulatory requirement. But even though we're prepared and we're flat at the end, that is just -- it's not a good outcome for the U.S. economy. When you take the impact of that across all the large banks, it's just -- it's not the right answer. And so we're going to be highly engaged. And again, there was some commentary from the regulators that they were quite open to getting to the right answer for the economy. It was not unanimous around how that rule looked and how it will come out. So we're in a period of real engagement.

Got it. I guess Morgan Stanley has had a very busy several years with acquisitions, integrations, E*TRADE, Eaton Vance. Maybe talk about kind of where the focus is now and just how you think about the broader firm strategy.

Sure. And again, Basel III Endgame, that's not going to change the strategic sort of philosophy of the firm. We really like what we have. And what we have today strategically is a function of sort of the strategic mission of the firm. We think it's pretty powerful and very disciplined, straightforward. We help clients allocate capital and get market access. And as James highlighted at the beginning there, that's sort of all we do. It's not -- it wasn't always the case, but that's all we do. And we do it in -- it's a constant in all parts of the business. So in sales and trading, we're helping asset managers where they're the largest Blackstone, BlackRock, or the start-up hedge fund or a new private credit firm; in investment management, big institutional asset owners, sovereign wealth funds, pension insurance companies, but also the wealth management platforms around the world. Obviously, in wealth, it's individuals. And then in investment banking, it's corporations, whether it's privately owned, publicly traded, owned by DC, owned by private equity asset managers, which is helping all of that client base allocate capital. And what that means is, as an operating committee, we meet once a week, the language that we're all operating under, both strategically and at the client level, is so similar. And that drives a whole bunch of collaboration and synergies. And we think it's been well appreciated by clients who like to focus, employees of the surveys would indicate people know the strategy, and then the market. So when we think about the market, to me, a big important week for us was early October 2020. We closed E*TRADE and we announced Eaton Vance in the same week. And the stock's up 77%-ish versus that period of time. So we think the market appreciates it. But I would say we're still growth-oriented it. Within that strategic footprint, we are still growing or still opportunity risk. So let me just get this businesses for a moment. In ISG, which is sort of core DNA of Morgan Stanley, it's also places where we have the highest market shares, we still think there's opportunities. There's opportunity in investment banking to grow share. We sort of lost a competitor in Credit Suisse. As the market picks up, we think there's a share play there. We've been investing Continental Europe across all of ISG. So we think there's a share opportunity there. And sometimes it gets lost with the big M&A we've done, Smith Barney, E*TRADE, Eaton Vance. We're -- and investment management. We're very international. It's where to capture some market growth. So India is starting to grow. We've got a franchise there. Middle East across all of our businesses, well, in IM and ISG, are growing. And then it doesn't have to be GDP, and it's certainly not all international, is China, Japan. So as Japan changes its economic framework and situation, and as it moves from savings to investing across all of our businesses, there's a real opportunity in Japan. In MSIM, we'll talk probably more about this. We operate in an intensely fragmented market. And so the active management market represents 90% of the revenue. So an increasing portion of that active is the private markets. I think it's circa $400 billion wallet a year. The top 3 firms on that wallet combined are 9%. So it's incredibly fragmented, we think one of the most fragmented parts of all financial services. So against that fragmentation, we've been able to triple revenue over the last 7 years. We think we're well positioned in secular growth areas. And as the Eaton Vance integration hits the final phases, a number of deal-related expenses and other items will roll off. And so the profitability will, I think, meaningfully rebound in that business, especially when you think about and account for intangible amortization out of the deal and funding of the deal as an example. And then lastly is the big one. So I'm lucky in my dual role, as you mentioned, I get to see -- maybe not as much as you, but I get to see every financial institution in the world that matters. And when you -- we're either a client at MSIM or they're the client, either way around. And what's pretty clear is the most attractive scaled opportunity in all of financial services is Morgan Stanley Wealth Management from here. And when I talk to those institutions, they would love to be where we're at, but what they love more is where we're going. And I think that's just a function of the strategy to date, but also now just the scale. As you know, we've gone from 2.5 million households to 18 million households. A lot of those households' net worth compounding is in front of them. And we've got the capabilities to service them as well as any in the world. So we aren't just a category 1 funnel, we got the capability set, and that is pretty exciting from a strategic standpoint.

I guess, combining some of what you just said, James has talked to this $10 trillion goal across Wealth Management and Investment Management. Just how do you think about achieving that?

So I think the $10 trillion, and there's a derivative James has talked about as well, $50 billion of revenue circa between Wealth Management and IM against, let's say, that $10 trillion. Those are -- to a degree, both the $50 billion and the $10 trillion, they're milestones against the strategy. So to a degree, it's a matter of when, not if we hit that. And I think in Wealth, I talked about 2.5 million goes to 18 million households. In that household cohort, we're -- there's $10 trillion of assets away. But also because of digital and because of workplace, the target market now is 100 million-plus households in the United States. So there's a lot of share. And again, if you think about now through workplace, we're going to get a 30-year-old software engineer or junior executive, we're going to be -- their wealth accumulation, their complexity of their needs is going to go up. So we're going to grow assets with them. Their complexity goes up, and our ability to serve and retain them is really incredibly strong. And so if the complexity of their needs go up, we have the largest alternatives platform in wealth management in the world. We have a partnership between Wealth Management and Parametric to deal with taxes. We've got mortgage lending and tailored lending. We can do it all in the digital framework, so we can wherever or however they want. And so the retention, I think, around those assets as well as the ability to grab them, either digitally or through the workplace, and then put increased value as their life gets more complex, is really powerful. And one thing that we think may be underappreciated out there is that we have the ability to use technology to drive real scale revenue and client service throughout the whole business. Some of that we bought and some of that we built. So if you think about it, it's across the business. The equity platform, sales and trading platform, is one of the premier platforms. MSET, Morgan Stanley Electronic Trading, is a core piece of that. So here's fintech, tech platform that we built that is really powering client service and revenue in ISG. Parametric is the #1 customization-driven technology platform. It's now an important driver of client service in both wealth and investment management. And then obviously, E*TRADE and Solium are both funnel drivers around workplace and digital, but they also drive our ability to service and retain assets. So the ability to do real scale technology to drive value and then drive revenue, either through M&A or organically build, is a big part of sort of, I think, our value add. And it's part of that mission to sort of get the $10 trillion and treat as a milestone, but it's not the endgame.

You mentioned $20 trillion on the last earnings call.

Yes. All right.

Yet another milestone, maybe take a little bit longer. We're at the half time here. So maybe we'll kind of shift gears and maybe focus more on the Investment Management business. But maybe to start out, just maybe describe your overall strategy for this business and kind of longer-term goals and aspirations.

Sure. I think the strategy also reflects some of the history here. So 7 years ago, we put together a leadership team in MSIM with a growth mandate from James and the Board. And I think that mandate was to take advantage of the investment excellence we had and the footprint we have and against the fragmentation, do so with a balance sheet-light strategy. And we felt like because of those dynamics, there was a real growth opportunity as well as sort of a balance sheet-light opportunity in the marketplace. And we had some success against that fragmentation, as I mentioned. So we were able to triple revenue. About 2x of that was organically. And then the last piece was Eaton Vance and Parametric, and it was about a quadruple of AUM, as an example. And being able to do that by focusing on where was the secular growth, where can we have differentiated Morgan Stanley value. And so that includes saying no to certain subsegments in the market and trying to figure out where there was value in the marketplace. And that will just continue to drive that strategy because that fragmentation remains, the balance sheet light, strategy remains and we're now pretty well positioned in a number of secular growth areas.

Got it. Maybe you could kind of maybe delve deeper into kind of the secular growth areas and what you can kind of capitalize on that.

Yes. Look, historically, MSIM -- it's always interesting to speak to a room of investment managers about investment management. So historically, we were quite concentrated in growth and disruption equity investment. And I think as you know, the last couple of years have been really challenging in that environment. Some of our peers big, big outflows. So we've had sort of negative flows in what used to be our biggest segment. But the investments in private markets, which is I noticed a whole bunch of people presenting here today, we had great value-add fixed income that came with Eaton Vance. So the Premier loan fund, we also had a whole bunch of international wins around their high-yield emerging markets and even muni bonds outside the United States, as an example. The Parametric positioning as #1 in customization and direct [ investing ] was important. I think you got to make tough decisions when markets are rough. So in our liquidity business, we stayed in it. So money market business, we stayed in. We invested in the tech platform and a lot of other firms didn't when rates were 0, but now rate is not 0, and it's a really attractive business. And we really worked to diversify the equity business. So our equity long business now is sort of dominated by quality investing. It's about 100 -- the quality teams. There's multiple teams. There's about $160 billion. So we've got teams in London, a team in Asia, team in Boston, Atlanta Capital, Calvert. So we've diversified in essence, the equity business. And within those long-only business, and again, I'm speaking to probably multigenerational talent in this room, trying to really focus those businesses around grooming and building internal talent. And we've got a great example, we had a gentleman leave our New York growth team to go do a global GARP type strategy in Asia. When I joined, it was just called as an AUM and today, it's $45 billion. What's also great about that strategy is 1/3 of the assets are from clients in Asia, 1/3 Europe and 1/3 Asia -- 1/3 U.S. So what it means is if we can get alpha in any part of our business, we have the footprint to go then take advantage of that and meet client demand. So we feel pretty well positioned in that context, around the secular growth areas and what we want in the marketplace.

Dan, can you talk to just how do you think about investing for the future in MSIM.

So as I said, we really like what we have. To a degree, what we -- the phrase we've used, if you had to build and you asked about the goal, the goal is to be the premier global diversified asset manager in the world. And I say diversified because of our history in MSIM, we're pretty balanced between the public market and the private market. And so the client base sort of demands that breadth. But the goal was to be the premier global diversified asset manager. And we can't be just private, there's some great private managers. We can't just be beta, there's some great beta managers. We've got to have the whole package. And so what we used to say is if you had to build that from scratch, it would look a lot like this. So we like what we have. and we're investing in all parts of the business. But if I had to highlight 2 places that I'll touch on, I think it would be customization in wealth management and the private markets. On customization, customization in the wealth management sector, predominantly dominated by the United States, is a big secular growth driver. So this -- the independent consultants would say this is double-digit plus-plus type growth. We have the #1 firm, Parametric. So that's $400 billion in AUM. And since we announced the acquisition, it's up $100 billion. And what that is, is it's a technology platform, it's a brand, it's got great leadership, and we're double-down in the investing around that. And some of that has shown up in the flows. The demand means that we are investing pretty heavily in automating that customization process front to back. And using some of the Morgan Stanley technology capabilities to do so. I think the second element is teaming up, partnering with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management across the whole life cycle of tax-efficient investing. So that's educating advisers, that's educating clients. It's having a seamless onboarding process, good reporting and really having it technology-enabled front to back throughout the whole firm. And then the third, I'd say, point we're trying to work on is the Eaton Vance acquisition brought this premier Parametric franchise, but also they are the lead business in helping clients' risk management, their concentrated stock positions. And trying to put that with Parametric and create a holistic tax-efficient solution for clients and advisers is really important. And this applies not just to the largest private banks or the big wirehouses but also to the RIA world and just try to be a bit more comprehensive in that context around the value we can provide. The second one is private markets, and I think there's people in the room next to me doing a whole [indiscernible] from private market. So I'll try to be try to be brief. But again, we think in early stages of client adoption, especially in wealth management, not just in the United States, but all around the world. And I think you're seeing that in some of the data. Within the private market, we're a $230 billion franchise. So it's a bit more than doubled over 4 years ago. If I had to point to 2 sort of core areas. One is mid-cap private equity and that ecosystem. And if you go back to differentiated value, we have to make an active decision. The world did not need another mega cap private equity fund. And so our focus has been to be in the mid-cap market. We've got some funds that do direct alpha in the mid-cap PE or in special situations with -- taking advantage of the sort of Morgan Stanley networking and origination capabilities but also our analytics. But the real driver of growth has been partnering with other private equity firms. So we have a series of funds that have been very successful in co-investing with other private equity firms. But the big scale mover has been private credit. So in private credit, frankly, 7 years ago, we were behind. We had $1 billion of AUM and 1 fund. And today, we're at approximately 50 -- or almost $50 billion of client investable assets across a whole platform, includes CLOs, include some real estate private credit, but the dominant part is in corporate private credit. And it makes strategic sense for us to be partners with these mid-cap private equity firms. We can help them raise capital in their fund. We can help them transact and co-invest at the transaction level with our co-invest funds. We got to fund the deal with private credit. And as they grow up, they can match up with the capital markets and M&A capabilities of the investment. Strategically, it just makes a lot of sense. And the other area, which is like a traditional strength rather than a big doubling and growth element is our real assets franchise. So infrastructure, core real estate, we have the largest core real estate fund open ended in the United States. Opportunistic real estate, real estate private credit, where we have real sort of domain expertise, scale and capability set. And historically, it was an institutional business, but over time, we're adapting around our vehicles to introduce it into more wealth management platforms, not just in the United States but around the world, as an example. So I think that shows the sort of capability set. What I would say on the private markets is we did Mesa West M&A. This is the place where there could be certainly some specific product capability M&A. I think over the next 5 years, there will probably be a couple more Mesas for us to do, as an example.

It's interesting. I guess -- and maybe taking a step back at the firm level, again, you mentioned collaboration a couple of times. How is firm-wide collaboration really delivering value?

So I'm pretty passionate about this. So let me take a moment here and think about it. I think -- I worked across the -- all the way across the firm. I think if you start at the biggest picture, I'll give you a client segment as an example. So corporations as a client segment, so that's where the firm started. That's the DNA and the investment bank. We have CEO and CFO relationship over the years that extended to the treasure, on debt funding in the capital markets. It extended the Chief Investment Officer, so in investment management around pension plan investing. But today, we've added an incredibly important, to a degree, third leg to that corporate relationship, which is workplace. So if you think about it, that's going to lever and create a comprehensive relationship and power at the corporation, not just the CEO, not just the CFO, CIO, but especially for companies where talent is important we're now a partner in their talent business. And again, all of that is happening within the umbrella just helping clients allocate capital. It just happens to be that client is now the employee of a company that has been an important client. And if you think about our competitor set, to be able to go to a corporation with a wealth management and financial planning capability then [ scale ] 16,000 financial peers, I may have the number wrong, but I'm close, E*TRADE digital as well as workplace as a stock plan, as a way to engage and actually have the client, and then combine that with we're managing their money market money in MSIM and we've had this historical relationship investment banking right there, that's pretty powerful. And I would say, to a degree, the workplace has emerged in the last 5 years, and we're just in the early days of that collaboration a little bit that is around attracting clients and winning new business, but the servicing of that is going to be pretty fun over the next 5 or 10 years. I think the other thing I'll just point out is wealth management is obviously a really important distribution partner to both ISG and investment management. But to a degree, at the transaction level, that's not that -- sort of specialty is their open architecture. Where it is special is in new product development or innovation or identifying trends so that both in ISG and IM, we can be ahead of the game in thinking about that. And I think it's certainly appreciated by Morgan Stanley Investment Management. I think it's appreciated by other asset managers who engage with our sales and trading. It's appreciated by our corporations who know when and how we should be accessing the wealth management market to raise capital, as an example. And then there's some micro ones that -- again, I'm just trying to give you a flavor around value. In MSIM, we're running a pretty good, I think, Latin American business that we're doing out of Miami. And the ISG guys came to the Head of LatAm for us and to myself and they said, "Guys, we have space. We have tech, we have licenses. We know exactly who you should hire, and here are the 10 clients who will pay for this thing in a week, open Brazil and get local." We opened Brazil really successful. We've now repeated that. We moved the Canadian team who is sort of headquartered into New York to Toronto and then we just opened Mexico. And that is an edge, which we've seen, because I've talked to Eaton Vance about it. To be able to go internationally when we see an opportunity and do so at sort of no cost, but not just no cost, instant return, is really powerful. It goes the other way. Probably the longest client of MSIM is a big sovereign wealth fund. Sovereign wealth funds, they did funds. They -- maybe they traded liquid in the equity market from time to time, but some of them have built big stakes in corporations. So earlier this year, one of them, longest-standing client of MSIM wanted to monetize their big stake in the company and they go to ISG to execute that trade, that offering as an example. I think another one is -- which is interesting. And again, it's the uniqueness is, as I mentioned, IM and ISG, really international franchises, right, part of our DNA. I worked overseas pre-Eaton Vance, more than 50% of the revenue, and IM and ISG was outside the United States. We have great clients in MSIM wealth management platforms in Europe. A lot of them were sourced originally by ISG banking relationships because they're owned by big financial institutions. Now they are building these wealth management platforms. They want to build the ability to do alts. They really want to learn from Morgan Stanley. So we take the leadership of a wealth management platform, we bring them in the United States, they spend a day with Andy Saperstein and his team, how do you do alts in a wealth management platform because you are the largest alts wealth management platform in the world. They then go back to Europe. And we have to win with alpha, but we also have to win with service, and that's a way to win with service, as an example. The advisers in wealth at the same time, they love the fact that inside the organization, they can get just incredible international perspectives from both ISG and IM. A lot of their competitors or a lot of their peers are very domestic corporations. By sort of definition, an RIA is a very domestic company. But a lot of the big digital platforms are most entirely in the United States. So the financial adviser and their clients know that Morgan Stanley is going to bring an international perspective that's different than some of the other peers out there. And maybe I'll end with talent. And I'll give you -- again, it's specific to IM, but this is repeated all the way through, and I'm not going to even count myself here. The 2 leaders of MSIM, one came from wealth management and one was sourced by ISG. So I had a real advantage in building that team and I was able to go use the firm to go build the team. That private markets business, $230 billion, more than half the team leaders started their career in ISG. So we've got internal talent development, which is phenomenal. That opportunity fund that I mentioned, based in Asia, the one that went from $1 billion to $40 billion. Number two, this will hit home, research analyst in ISG. So a lot of synergies out there. So if I had to leave you with something, it's I'd say we're opportunity rich. I think we're opting rich on growth, but we're also still early opportunity rich on collaboration as an example.

Great. That's perfect. Dan and I think on that note. Please join me in thanking Dan for his time today.

All right. Thank you. Thank you.