MP Materials Corp. ($MP)

Hi, everyone. I'm George Gianarikas, one of Canaccord Genuity's sustainability analysts. And we're blessed to have with us today, Ryan Corbett, CFO of MP Materials. Ryan, thank you so much for joining.

Thanks so much for having me, George. Appreciate it.

Maybe to start, if you could give us a high-level overview of Q4 and any highlights you wanted to share?

Sure. Yes, happy to do it. Obviously, we reported a couple of weeks ago, maybe it was last week, I'm losing track. But I think the story for Q4 was continued strong execution from the team. As you all saw, we continue to ramp both in the Materials segment and Magnetics segment very, very rapidly. We exited the year in the Materials segment at nearly a 4,000-ton production run rate. We produced our first commercial magnets to customer specifications on our commercial equipment down Independence, where I'm actually sitting right now. And I think what we've seen over the last several months, and it's continuing and frankly, accelerating is real customer engagement across all parts of the business. And so we came out of Q4 and into Q1 with a tremendous amount of momentum. I think the other thing that is particularly exciting from a financial perspective is you saw a strong return to profitability in the business, which we expect to continue and really be enhanced with the market pricing environment that we're seeing. And our expectation is that's just going to continue to accelerate.

Awesome. Maybe to keep it topical, I'd love to hear your thoughts on the announcement yesterday from Lynas in Japan. What that means for you, what that means for the market and the overall magnetics supply chain.

Sure. I think certainly, we laid the groundwork with our transformational partnership with the Department of War to really bring focus to the criticality of fighting sort of a mercantile set of policies that have governed the economics of this industry for so long, an industry that is so critical to future-facing technologies. I think -- frankly, I think investors are really underappreciating how meaningful that announcement was, not just for Lynas in particular, but really for the market. If you think about it, they've committed 5,000 tonnes of NdPr production capacity to Japan and 75% of their heavy rare earth capacity to Japan. And so Japan has sort of secured their magnet industry from a supply perspective. If you look at what we're building, we will become a fully vertically integrated player over time. What that means is there's not much NdPr to go around at this point. And so I'm sure you know that we tend not to prognosticate on what that -- what pricing is going to do. But I think fundamentally, looking at the value of our franchise that we've built here on a vertically integrated perspective, frankly, we almost benefit from what happened doubly versus Lynas given what this means for our magnetics business as really the only ex-China player at this point that has true security of supply to be able to continue to build and grow this business. And so certainly, there's a view that this announcement provides further support under the $110 minimum price as one would expect. That's sort of the obvious conclusion. I think perhaps the less obvious conclusion is how beneficial this is broadly to the market and what that means for scarcity of NdPr, given what we've seen from an announcement perspective on sort of various projects out there on the magnetics side. And it really just plays into our strengths as a vertically integrated player. So I think it's tremendously positive for the market.

Speaking of getting to your NdPr refining and production. You have this target out there of 6,000 tonnes. Maybe an update on the current progress and any -- the issues that you have overcome in the past and getting to that 3,000 plus that you're at now? And how you foresee the next several months of getting to full scale up?

Sure. I think certainly, exiting the year at nearly a 4,000-ton run rate, I think, speaks to the fact that the plant is operating in a way that gives us tremendous confidence that we will hit our target. And our view is that we will be there by the end of this year. Michael spoke to a 20% sequential growth target for Q1 versus Q4. We talked about a bit of a plateau in the middle of the year and then reaching escape velocity, if you will, at the end of the year. And really what that's from is addressing the various -- really what they are our mechanical reliability improvements, primarily on materials handling that are very clear opportunities for us that we have been sourcing for the last several months and have very, very clear plans to address. And so hopefully, folks can understand producing at the rate that we are producing, we're tremendously pleased with the progress and the debottlenecking that we need to do to get to that 6,000-tonne run rate is very, very clear to us. And we think we have a clear execution plan that we'll execute over the rest of the year. We've always focused on hitting that 6,000 tons before we really talk about further growth. But given everything we've seen in the market recently, it shouldn't be lost on folks, of course, that we've talked about our recycling opportunity, third-party feedstock opportunities, some of these other things that undoubtedly will bring incremental volume of production into Mountain Pass. And so we'll work to size those opportunities for investors as we get to the target that we've laid out. But I think overall, we're tremendously pleased with the progress. I think Michael and his team have done an unbelievable job getting us to where we are, and I feel very confident in the execution path to getting to the target.

Maybe just to focus on that for a second. So you have the recycling opportunity. You've also talked and we'll get to this later, but Upstream 60K that should, in theory, at least enable additional processing volume. Is that fair?

Yes. I mean what you've seen from us on the upstream side, we exceeded 50,000 tons of REO production last year. And that is in the midst of really optimizing the quality of concentrate instead of quantity. And so the fact that we've been able to grow 12% annually last year while really shifting the focus to really maximize the full suite of economics as opposed to just maximizing volume on the upstream, I think speaks to the sort of latent opportunity and capacity that we have in the upstream business that undoubtedly, as we debottleneck the refining capacity, I think, will be a very clear opportunity for us. And so we're working maniacally on all fronts. The focus continues to be maximizing REO production that maximizes the economics of the full suite of products, but that is not to say that there does not remain pretty significant opportunity to grow volumes on both sides over time.

A question we get a lot is whether or not the U.S. can truly scale its own competitive NdFeB magnet supply chain. So the way you see it, do we have the labor pool? Do we have the technical expertise that's required to compete against China?

I think, frankly, George, we have proven here where I'm sitting that we do. We've built this business methodically with a view towards executing for a large volume customer and focusing on knocking it out of the park from an execution perspective for this initial launch of EV traction motor magnets. In the midst of that, we've invested really significantly in our technical talent. We have over 100 engineers here working on exactly the things that are needed to scale the business. And we talked a little bit on our last earnings call about what we've been able to do just in this short period of time. I mean, short is, I guess, in the eye of the beholder, we've been at this for 5 years, building this business from scratch. And we had targets in our mind of where we would be, for example, from a heavy rare earth content in order to hit the demanding needs of performance and heat tolerance of EV traction motor magnets. We are currently locking for production a recipe that has 60% less heavy rare earths than what we originally anticipated. And that original anticipation was towards the cutting edge of what is possible globally right now. And so I think we have certainly proven that with the right leadership, with the right team, with the right strategy, you absolutely can do this in the United States. I think what's becoming clearer to my point earlier, is there's a critical missing link for a lot of other players out there, which is security of supply of the upstream. And I think that the platform and franchise that we've built here to be able to provide to customers visibility all the way through the chain in addition to some of the best technology available is completely unique in the marketplace. And so I think that when you see projects out there that are -- can pencil on a spreadsheet, but when you ask where you're getting your NdPr, it's like, we'll get it from the market. That world changed 2 days ago. And so I think that, that is something that really plays to our strengths. The other thing that we're seeing that I think really plays into the platform that we've built, we talked about recycling a moment ago, is one of the ways that customers have engaged with our engineering team to continue to reduce heavy rare earth content per unit of NdFeB magnet is looking at various opportunities like more segmentation in magnets as an example. If you put more segments within the same footprint of a magnet, oftentimes, you can create an environment where you reduce eddy current and the temperature overall of the application can lower, and so you need less heavy rare earths within that application. What does that cause? Well, it plays into our strengths from a heavy rare earth perspective by reducing that need. It also plays directly into our strengths of you have more segments, you have more cuts, you have more swarf. And so an integrated recycling capability is also absolutely essential to remain on the cutting edge in this space. And so we've tried to be very, very thoughtful in how we've built this and having the Mountain Pass asset, not just from a feedstock perspective, but having that platform to build scaled recycling is absolutely essential to be competitive in this space. And so all of the trends that we're seeing, I think, really give us a tremendous amount of confidence in our go-forward opportunity set and really the potential margin profile of the magnet business over time.

So speaking of heavies, it's a question that also comes up a lot. So can you maybe give us an update on your -- the heavy rare earth separation circuit that you -- I think you have slated for mid-'26 or late '26?

Yes. Yes. We expect to begin commissioning of the separation assets in the middle of the year. What we've designed there is an opportunity to separate dysprosium and terbium for use in our magnetics business, both from the ore at Mountain Pass and the feedstock at Mountain Pass, which mind you, we've been producing SEG+ concentrate for 2-plus years now, and we have that stockpile available for us to begin separation immediately, and we're producing more SEG every single day as we produce our NdPr products and other products. And of course, as well, bring in third-party feedstock. So we've talked about a 200 metric ton per annum Dy and Tb capacity at that plant. We think that, that will meet our needs for the magnet business growth plans that we've laid out. And if you think about how we've built the customer base, we've got General Motors as our foundational customer within the Independence facility. We'll be meeting all of the needs of those magnets from a heavy rare earth perspective from the material that's coming out of Mountain Pass directly. We have Apple slated to come online from a magnet perspective in 2027, mid-2027. That is an engagement that we're tremendously excited about given the technical collaboration and frankly, the business that we've been able to build with them, not just in magnets, but in recycling, where we'll bring recycled feedstock in and we will meet the needs of heavy earth needs for them through that recycling channel. And then for the 10X Facility, we're partnered with the Department of War in that facility. They have been tremendous partners so far in how we've built out the product set that we intend to produce at the beginning as well as sourcing for third-party feedstock to bring into the Mountain Pass refinery. We are in the market buying heavy-rich third-party feedstock as we speak. And so we feel very good about meeting all of the needs of our customers at both magnet plants.

Speaking of magnets, you're due to start delivering commercial scale magnets by year-end. Can you sort of walk us through the work to complete list that's out there to make sure that you can transition?

Sure. Yes. We were really pleased with the team's progress. We talked about in our quarterly report that we had made the first sort of GM specification magnets on commercial equipment here at Independence. It's a huge milestone given where we came from and how quickly we've built this capability from scratch. As you can imagine, we've talked about, for example, second half deliveries of those commercial magnets to our foundational customer. What we need to do between now and then is the pretty typical scaling of a brand-new industrial process. And so magnet making really is a string of a variety of processes from -- we obviously have electrolysis fully integrated into Independence. So we've been making and delivering, as you've seen from the earnings power of the business in magnetics, NdPr metal out of Independence. We've really scaled the capability and throughput capacity of our integrated alloy flake and strip casting capabilities. And so we feel very good about that. Then it's powder production. So hydrogen decrepitation, jet milling, pressing, sintering, finishing, grain boundary diffusion, all of those various process steps have been commissioned at this point, but just need to ramp to initial steady-state volumes to go through our qualification process with our customer. That is beginning imminently. And given the engagement we've had with them from the inception of this business, we expect that to go quite well. And once we're through that, we'll begin official commercial deliveries in the second half of the year. And so it's really just scaling the capability that we already have in place here right now.

And how about customer demand? I know you're sold out of your facility. We try to make an estimate once upon a time that you were 50% sold out with Apple and you told me I was wrong, which was great. We spent a lot of time on that. But what about 10X? I mean, how much customer inquiry are you getting to making sure people have slots in that new facility that you're building?

Sure. Yes. I think the great thing about how we've approached this problem is with the agreement with the Department of War, having them as the 100% offtaker for 10X has allowed us to go at warp speed. And so we get a lot of questions about our level of confidence in being able to execute the timelines that we've laid out there. But really work on 10X began July 10. I think we signed the deal July 9, right? We're through a decent amount, a very significant amount actually of our long lead equipment procurement. We've selected our site. We're about to be moving dirt. This is moving really, really quickly. And so that gives customers, obviously, the confidence to really step up and step forward. I think that when you saw the initial restrictions come into place out of China in April of last year, there was sort of -- everyone was thrown into disarray. Customers that we were talking to were hosting calls with their senior management on a daily basis about where our magnets coming from, what is the status. And so that was sort of a tactical how do we get through the next several months. I think the great thing that we've seen since then is really an increase in a view of how do we strategically tackle this problem and ensure that we have security of supply. And so the customer engagement and the conversations that we've been having, frankly, are more intense and are more attractive, more long term, more profitable than even what we were talking about in April when everyone was just I need a magnet tomorrow because I don't know if I'm going to get it. And so the way we built this business from the beginning with the foundational customer framework, with GM, with Apple and then with DoW is we have no gun to our head. I can't imagine being in a position where I'm building a 10,000-tonne plant and I don't know that I have a customer on the other end, and I need to be making decisions to ensure that I could bring one customer or the other in. The way we've designed this is we've agreed with the Department of War on a set of specifications to begin production. Those specifications will allow us to meet the vast majority of commercial and defense needs that we can foresee. And so the customer conversations that we're having, we're already down the pathway of development for a lot of these products. And so we feel extremely confident that, that facility will be significantly more profitable over time than sort of the minimum numbers that we've provided for folks. But the great thing is we are in no rush. And I think that the value that we bring to a customer and the value of our platform that we've built gets more valuable by the day as evidenced by what we saw 2 days ago. There really is no other player in the space that can provide what we do. And so I'm sure you will continue to see us make certain announcements, but we'll do it at the pace that maximizes long-term value. Jim always says, we will be long-term greedy in partnership with our customers where they are getting great value and we are getting great value over time. We're doing this in a way where we're being methodical and really ensuring that we bring the best customers that we can into the facility.

You mentioned something earlier that you're -- I think, if I heard correctly, essentially decontenting some magnets, but segmenting them more. Can 10X facilitate that? I mean how many lines of production do you need to make sure that they can happen?

Well, so the segmentation really is just a matter of how you finish the magnet. At the end of the day, you're making a magnet block and cutting it to shape. And so certainly, we are designing the 10X Facility to have flexibility to meet a variety of customer needs. And so we've seen certain new applications in consumer electronics and data centers and things like that, that have very unique shapes where you need to ensure you've got, for example, the right pressing capability to make the right block to machine the part into some of these more unique shapes. The segmentation though really is just instead of making a block and cutting it into four individual pieces and bonding it together, you cut it into 8 or 10 or 12. But what that does is it necessitates having the right capacity on the finishing side of the equation. We actually have had finishing capability commissioned and ready and in trial production at Independence for some time now. So we have a lot of experience in that sort of machining side of the business. We have a lot of folks that came to MP where that was actually their specialty. And we actually have certain IP that we partnered for that we have specifically in that space. And so I think that, that is a unique capability of ours where not only do we have the ability to meet that need from a new product perspective, but you're sort of fighting with one hand tied behind your back if you're trying to add more segments and you don't have an ability to recapture the value of the swarf that you're creating, every incremental cut is an incremental piece of yield loss. And so if you can't address that yield loss and recreate value from recycling, you're in a tough spot. And so that is why, again, we're so focused on looking at this from an integrated value perspective where we can do well, our customers can do well, we can meet those needs in a way that many others can't.

Well, Ryan, that's a great place to stop. I think we'll go on for hours, honestly, I have about 10 more questions. But thank you for your time. Best of luck and we look forward to you bringing magnets back to the United States more. You've already started. Just -- we just need 10,000 more tonnes.

We'll get you more. We'll get you more. Thank you, George. I appreciate it.

Thank you.