MTN Group Limited (MTN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day to everybody, and thank you for joining us on this call to discuss the MTN Group trading update for the 9 months ended September 2024. Apologies for starting 5 minutes late. My name is Thato Motlanthe. I'm the Head of Group Investor Relations for the group. And on the call with me, I've got Ralph Mupita, who's our Group CEO; as well as Tsholofelo B. Molefe, our Group CFO. Also on the line, we've got MTN SA CEO, Charles Molapisi; as well as MTN SA CFO, Dineo Molefe. So if we kind of go into what we're going to discuss, you'll remember that the trading update was published this morning on the JSE. It's also posted on our website on the Investor Relations page. I trust that you've also seen the Q1 releases from our listed opcos over the past couple of weeks as well as being able to join their respective calls. When I look at the agenda that we'll walk through today, it will follow the usual running order. Ralph will get us going with an overview of the operational performance. He will then be followed by Tsholo with an overview of the financial highlights. Ralph will then come back to wrap up with some key focus areas and outlook comments, after which we'll move on to Q&A, and I encourage everybody to just send through their questions on the webcast platform, just to send your questions, and we'll read them out for our speakers to answer. Finally, just a reminder that this call is scheduled for about an hour, at which point we'll close off the call. On that note, let me hand over to Ralph.

Thank you, Ralph. Thank you, Thato, and a very good afternoon to you all from me as well. I trust everybody is keeping well. In terms of our Q3 trading update, we're encouraged to once again report a resilient performance for the period in what has remained a challenging macroeconomic and operating context. As Tato has outlined, we will cover 3 overall areas in our commentary this afternoon. Firstly, I'll start with an operational overview covering the performance highlights. I'll then ask Tsholo to cover our financial highlights, and then I'll come back at the end briefly to talk about our outlook and priorities. Before we delve into some of the detail, let me spend some time on six key messages we would like to leave with you in terms of how we looked at our performance for the period. The first point is that we have managed to sustain the commercial momentum in our core connectivity business. This is critical as we navigate the near-term headwinds facing our operations as it gives us the confidence in the underlying resilience and strength of the business. The continued structural demand for our services underpins our medium-term growth outlook and capital allocation. In that sense, the second key message is that you will also will see a strong result in our Fintech business, which spearheads our platform strategy. In particular, we're driving continued strong growth in advanced services in line with our strategic priority in fintech. The third message, we have made further progress in Q3 in executing on some of our strategic priorities that we've articulated to the market. If I outline these in brief, in Ghana, we've completed an additional 2.1% localization. This brought the local shareholding of MTN Ghana to 30% and makes it compliant with the regulatory requirements for both GSM and the mobile money business. This follows the 7% sell-down of MTN Uganda in June that reported with our H1 results. So both of these operations now align fully with local requirements in terms of localization. In terms of the overall portfolio optimization priority, we have exited Guinea Bassa in August, and the work is ongoing to complete the exit of Guinea Conakry. Of course, we'll update you on that progress as and when appropriate. We also reported the progress in extending the 2016 broad-based economic empowerment scheme managed through MTN Aqulefuti. As a reminder, this was due to unwind at the end of this month, November 2024. With this extension, it will now run up to a further maximum of 3 years to November 2027. Not only does this align with our commitment to transformation and the creation of shared value for South Africa, it's also integral to the future success of the group. So this extension was supported by shareholders of both MTN Group and MTN Aqulefuti in their respective extraordinary general meetings held in October. You may have also seen the announcement from 2 days ago that related conditions precedent have been fulfilled, so the extension has now been finalized. If I move to the fourth key message, which is balance sheet resilience, supported by upstreaming and localization proceeds. I'll leave this to Tsholo to unpack. Suffice to say that we're pleased with the overall shape of our balance sheet and financial flexibility. This is enabling us to deal with the macro impacts from our operating environment as well as continue to invest in the growth of our business. The third point is the macro environment. Whilst this has remained challenging, the directional travel for some of the key variables in Q3 was encouraging. For instance, the blended inflation in our markets averaged 13.9% in Q3 compared to 17.9% in the same period last year. So coming down steadily and the key markets -- so only the key market of Nigeria is where there's still some upward pressure on inflation. In terms of currencies, you would have seen that there's still some depreciation and volatility against the U.S. dollar, but these movements are much less pronounced than they were 6 to 12 months ago. The sixth and final message is that we have maintained our medium-term guidance. So I'll come back to that at the end and the Board's expectation of a ZAR 3.30 ordinary dividend for FY 2024 remains. Turning to the high-level performance highlights. We delivered overall service revenue growth of 12.9% for the 9 months in constant currency terms, with the underlying margin down 3.2 percentage points to 37.3%. Of course, this includes the performance of MT and Sudan, which remains in a conflict situation. If we adjust our results for MT and Sudan, service revenue would have been up by 14%, which is within our targeted growth range of mid-teens. In terms of the key drivers of our top line, data revenue increased by 21.3% and Fintech by 28.9%. In the overall mix, the performance of MTN SA continued to be slowed by initiatives implemented to recover legacy extra time data advance balances through data bundles. So this impacted especially prepaid data, which you would recall we spoke about at the half year results. To give you a sense, the underlying performance of prepaid data was more mid-single digits revenue growth if we adjust for the bundle clawbacks. Notwithstanding, the performance remained steady and resilient with total service revenue up by 3.3%. MTN SA implemented some pricing revisions in prepaid between May and July. We communicated previously to the market that this is something we'd anticipate it will take a few months to settle. Because as a value-seeking segment, prepaid customers will optimize their consumption and spend, there would be a bit of a lag before the effects of the price ups come through. As we indicated before, we believe that this is the right approach to ensure sustainability and support for continued investment in the network. The business has also done a lot of good work to enhance customer experience and value proposition in order to support growth. We have seen a good improvement in customer satisfaction through measures such as Net Promoter Scores. You will have seen from our release that MTN SA was awarded the Best in Test certificate for its network performance. This was a result of the independent peer group benchmarking and substantiates the investment we've made in South Africa's network over the past year or two. This leadership in network quality and performance underpins the commercial initiatives we're executing to accelerate the financial performance of MTN SA. MTN Nigeria reported its results two weeks ago. In terms of the headline, they grew service revenue by 33.3%, which was ahead of local inflation. This was achieved in a trading environment that was quite challenging, and that is now quite familiar to most of you. The drivers were broad-based with strong growth in data, digital services and the enterprise segment. The key feature of Q3 for MTN Nigeria was the tower contract renegotiations. To remind you, the revised terms with IHS in Nigeria reduced the U.S. dollar index component of the leases linked to a discounted U.S. consumer price index and removed technology-based pricing to ensure that payments for new upgrades were based on tower space and power usage. The renegotiated leases incorporate an energy cost component index to the cost of providing diesel power. However, the terms also include discounts and incentives over the life of the contract. These discounts will start to kick in from 2025 onwards. So relative to where we were before, this helped to mitigate the effects of the business in Q3 of factors like foreign exchange volatility and inflation. In our markets portfolio, the respective regions continued to grow the service revenue above blended inflation on an overall basis. MTN Ghana continued to spearhead growth with top line growth of 31.9% and MTN Uganda was also a solid contributor to the market's performance. In terms of the commercial progress that underpinned our financial results, our subscriber base was up 1.6% year-on-year to 288 million. This was impacted ZAR 288 million. This was impacted by subscriber registration regulations, particularly in Nigeria as well as a decline in subscribers in Sudan amongst the ongoing conflict. Active data subscribers were up 7.4% to 152.8 million. This was a net addition of 3 million data customers in the quarter. This was -- this supported a 37% year-on-year rise in data traffic on our networks, excluding JVs, which was also boosted by increased monthly usage within our customer base. Finally, before I hand over to Tsholo, I talked a bit earlier about the strong results in our Fintech business. Revenue grew by 28.9%, which is in line with our objectives to grow top line in the high 20s to low 30s over the medium term. This was driven by the continued expansion of our ecosystem KPIs and strong commercial execution, the focus on monetization of our services. Our mobile monthly active users increased by 5.7 million to 61.5 million. You would recall this measure excludes OTC customers in Nigeria, so it focus on our active wallet base. For Momo PSB Nigeria, you will have seen the decline in the active base, as Karl and the team explained. This was due to an increased emphasis on building out the ecosystem in a more profitable way. This entailed streamlining of incentive structures in the distribution channels, particularly reducing acquisition costs and making sure that we grow in a way that drives service penetration and commercial monetization. In terms of the broader group performance, we're pleased with the 17.4% increase in fintech transaction volumes. Our transaction value was up 27.1% in constant currency term. This underpins the strong growth in our advanced services revenue of $53.1 million and aligns to our stated objective of accelerating the mix of our fintech revenue towards advanced services. So overall, I'd say I'm pleased with the commercial and operational performance in a very challenging macro context. We are also managing to advance some of our strategic initiatives, which I believe speaks to the execution excellence across the group. I'll pause at this moment and hand over to Tsholo for our financial highlights.

Thank you very much, Ralph, and a very good afternoon to everybody joining us on the call, and thank you for taking time this afternoon. It is my pleasure to walk you through the financial performance overview of our Q3 performance. I would echo that it was a solid outcome given the macro challenges that we continue to navigate. Now turning to our overall financial performance. As you heard earlier, that group service revenue grew by 12.9% in constant currency for the 9-month period under review. Quite encouraging was the growth acceleration in the September quarter to 14.7% in constant currency, which highlights the positive momentum in the business. This was underpinned by an uptick in MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana service revenues, which I will talk more about shortly. If we exclude MTN Sudan, group service revenue growth was 14% for the 9-month period. Again, I think this highlights the underlying strength of our top line performance. In terms of our revenue BRS, voice held steady, up 1%, while data was up 21.3% and Fintech up by 28.9%. Again, an important call out here is the overall acceleration we are seeing in the underlying BRS on a sequential basis. For Fintech, Ralph talked about the growth in advanced services, which grew by 53.1%, which was really a key highlight. This means that the contribution of advanced services to overall mobile money revenues was 29.9%, which supported the EBITDA margin improvement in the business. Our constant currency EBITDA margin for the 9 months trended 3.2 percentage points lower to 37.3% due to the upward pressure on costs from elevated inflation in our markets, local currency depreciation against the dollar as well as the conflict that we continue to see in Sudan. As mentioned earlier by Ralph, these pressures were mitigated by the benefits from the renegotiated tower lease contracts in Nigeria. In the 9 months, MTN Nigeria accrued the equivalent of ZAR 602 million in OpEx savings from the revised contracts and ZAR 503 million in cash flow savings. Given the nature of these revised agreements, you can expect that we would incur higher depreciation and finance costs in the early stages. This is due to the extension of the lease period to December 2022, as we have reported previously for these contracts. However, the benefits should actually be more pronounced in the later years in light of the discounts built into the agreements that starts to kick in from 2025. So really, the objective was to put MTN Nigeria in a better position to manage the potential volatility in its macro environment. Of course, we also continue to aggressively drive expense efficiencies across the group with the objective of realizing the savings of between ZAR 7 billion to ZAR 8 billion from 2024 over the next 3 years as we've communicated before. If we turn to the performance of MTN South Africa in the period under review, service revenue increased by 3.3%, and it was the same growth that we saw in the quarter -- in quarter 3 specifically. There were stronger base effects in some of the business segments. However, there was also positive momentum in some underlying trends. Overall, data service revenue grew by 2.1%. This continues to be affected by the ongoing initiatives to recovery of our legacy extra time. However, the momentum of the underlying drivers remained quite robust with growth in usage as well as traffic. Consumer postpaid service revenue increased by 3.5% in the period with an acceleration in the growth to 4.1% in the quarter. And this was supported by growth in the adoption of home propositions, particularly fixed wireless access packages. Consumer prepaid service revenue was up 1% year-on-year, again, with an uptick in growth in the third quarter to 1.9%. Extra Time was a key driver here as well as increased penetration in CVM-driven bundles. Wholesale service revenue held steady, and this was impacted by pressure on national roaming revenues from Cell C, where some of the pricing was renegotiated. Fintech revenue was up by 61.8%, driven by growth in both Extra Time and Momo from a low base. MTN South Africa's EBITDA reported margin was a touch lower at 36.3%, which included some one-off factors impacted in H1 in particular, which we have reported on previously. Excluding this, the underlying margin was 0.9 percentage points to lower to 35.8% . The margin was impacted by higher Cell C roaming fees and some dilution from lower-margin ICT revenue from the ICT business within the enterprise unit. What was more encouraging if you look at Q3 as a stand-alone was the EBITDA margin for MTN South Africa, which reached 36.4%. \Briefly on MTN Nigeria's performance, strong top line growth with service revenue growth of 33.3% coming in ahead of local inflation. The underlying drivers were data, which was up 52.6% and underpinned by increased usage and traffic. as well as digital service revenue, which more than doubled during the period. Voice revenue was solid as well and was up 13.8%. When you look at the Q3 momentum in total, service revenue was up by 35.4% year-on-year. So again, a testament to the underlying strength of the demand in the business here. EBITDA margin in Nigeria contracted due to higher inflation and energy costs, the naira devaluation as well as the impact on the new VAT on leases. The margin came in at 36.2%. However, adjusting for FX and VAT on leases in particular, this underlying margin would have been more around 53.8% in constant currency. At a high level, the market portfolio continues to perform well overall with both SIA and WECA growing service revenue ahead of their respective blended inflation rate at 20.2% and 9.2%. Within there for SIA, particularly MTN, Uganda delivered another strong performance, growing service revenue by 20.1% with a 1.2 percentage point improvement in EBITDA margin, reaching 51.7%. Very good momentum in that business across its key revenue drivers, supported by expense efficiencies, which helped to sustain the EBITDA margin above the medium-term target threshold of about 50%. MTN Ghana within the WECA region grew top line by 31.9% for the 9-month period with an uptick in Q3 growth to 33.4%. Again, a robust margin performance in constant currency terms with a slight uplift of 0.2 percentage points, reaching 56.2%. Finally, a few comments on our financial profile. Let me start with CapEx. You would have seen from our sense that we deployed CapEx of ZAR 19.9 billion, excluding leases, with CapEx intensity of about 14.7%, hovering around the lower end of our targeted medium-term guided range. Overall, I think we are still on track to exit the current financial year within the guided range in absolute terms of between ZAR 28 billion to ZAR 23 billion, probably towards the upper end of that range. This incorporates the increase in CapEx signaled by MTN Nigeria to enable them to accommodate the increase in traffic on their network. Our balance sheet remains in good shape. Overall, consolidated net debt-to-EBITDA came in at 0.8%, which was comfortably within our covenant limits. Holdco leverage ticked up to 1.8% -- 1.8 points at the end of September. We did signal at the start of the year that it is something we expected to happen and that the ratio would trend slightly above our medium target threshold of 1.5x. This was in light with the various divestments through the course of the year, including prepayments get towards mitigating against FX volatility. We still anticipate that this to come back within the range in the coming financial year. And in terms of the 2024 Eurobond expiry, we settled the outstanding balance of around ZAR 97 million earlier this month as we had indicated previously. In closing off my comments, our cash upstreaming from OpCos is tracking reasonably well. In Q3, we up streamed ZAR 2.2 billion, which brought the year-to-date total to ZAR 8.7 billion. So over and above this, we have completed ZAR 2.3 billion in gross localization proceeds year-to-date, specifically from Ghana and Uganda. We have maintained a very healthy liquidity position with headroom of ZAR 32.1 billion as at the end of September. So overall, we retain a flexible financial profile guided by our disciplined capital allocation framework. As we navigate the near-term challenges in our macro, this will enable us to continue to execute on our strategy. So thank you very much. I'll stop here and then hand back over to Ralph.

Thank you, Tsholo, and the important call out there, the strength and flexibility of our balance sheet really underpins our ability to continue to drive our medium-term growth ambitions and deliver on our investment case to shareholders and broader stakeholders. In terms of how we see the shape of the business going forward, I would like to outline and reiterate a few key messages. Firstly, while the near-term challenges in the operating environment are still there, the trends are a lot more encouraging. Inflation has started to abate in most key markets, and we see a lot less volatility in local exchange rates against the U.S. dollar. In other words, as we move forward, this would have less of an impact on our business, especially in terms of costs. And the underlying strong demand and top line we see in our markets should translate better into profitability, cash flow and returns. In South Africa, the investments made in the network there is bearing fruits. We are seeing a much better network availability and quality, which has been borne out in independent benchmarking and network NPS. This underpins the commercial activities in South Africa, including price adjustments that are geared to returning the business to a more sustainable growth and profitable trajectory within the medium-term targets. And specifically for EBITDA margins, as we guided at H1, we should be moving towards the lower end of our 37% to 39% range in the near term. For MTN Nigeria, the underlying demand and operational momentum remains quite strong, and the focus will be on sustaining that. We have spoken about the initiatives being implemented to recover profitability in MTN Nigeria and particularly to turn around the negative reserves and balance sheet position. The tariff engagements with the relevant authorities in Nigeria remain an important element of these initiatives, and these discussions are ongoing. We remain constructive with the progress there, even if timing is a bit hard to pin down. In the engagements that we've had, we've discussed having a multi-period framework, and we're anticipating that is the structure of the tariff increases as and when they are announced. The renegotiated tower leases in Nigeria have been an important development for us. When we look ahead to the next few years, we're positive on the benefits that will accrue over the tenure relative to where we were, especially as some of these discounts built into the agreements kick in over the next few years, starting with 2025. In our markets portfolio, the key focus areas will be sustaining the good performance we're seeing in key operations such as Ghana and Uganda, which we have called out, along with a couple of others in the portfolio. We've also spoken about the work that is underway to improve the performance of OpCos such as MTN Côte d'Ivoire, MTN Rwanda and Zambia. This work continues and as they recover, we should see this benefit come through in terms of supporting the growth and profitability of the business. For our Fintech business, the momentum is quite pleasing, and we will sustain the top line growth in the bracket of high 20s to low 30s, supported by acceleration of advanced services. And we are satisfied that the EBITDA margin is tracking as planned, remain fully engaged in progressing the structural separations at the OpCo level in terms of constituting the group fintech structures. As you are aware, this is key to unlocking the proceeds from the minority equity investment made by Mastercard. I think Tsholo touched on the importance of maintaining a strong and flexible financial position and profile. This enables us to execute on our plans. As part of this, we maintain our goal of realizing expense saving of ZAR 7 billion to ZAR 8 billion between 2014 and 2017 and bringing our Holdco leverage back within our 1.5x threshold. Again, just as important to maintain that balance sheet flexibility. Finally, we maintain our medium-term guidance, which is the framework that guides our growth ambitions and investment case. In that context, our CapEx guidance range remains unchanged at ZAR 28 billion to ZAR 33 billion. MTN Nigeria is accelerating investment in Q4, having made very good progress in reducing its U.S. dollar LC obligations, and this is to support the stronger data traffic growth that we see coming through there. And in terms of our single year dividend guidance, the Board still anticipates to pay a minimum ordinary dividend of ZAR 3.30 -- as Tsholo mentioned, we've seen good upstreaming of ZAR 8.7 billion to the end of Q3 in terms of management fees and dividends. We've also had the localization proceeds of ZAR 2.3 billion, and we anticipate seeing a similar level of upstreaming in Q4 that, again, will support and underpin the dividend guidance that we have. So in closing, as a management team and organization, we remain excited by the medium-term growth opportunities presented by our markets. We're committed to executing on our strategy to unlock value for our stakeholders. Thanks very much for listening, and let me hand over to Thato for Q&A that myself, Tsholo , Charles and Dineo will tackle.

Thanks, Ralph and Tsholo for those setting comments. Just a quick apology that the slides were delayed in coming up. That was part of the technical challenge we had in getting going. But thanks for your patience and understanding. We'll just jump straight into the questions. A couple of questions on South Africa. Can you please talk about the price hike time line? And why is it taking so long to trickle down? Are you facing high elasticity? Or is there some other issue preventing the price hike to cover the base? I'll probably just do them one at a time.

Thanks for the question, Thato. The pricing started in May and July. So in May, we did the pricing for internal channels. And then in July, we did the trade. We saw a little bit of an uplift. If you look at the internal channel, the USSD, M, so a little bit of an uplift that came through that. But the external ones have not really shown the sort of numbers that we're looking for. But I mean, the feedback that we're getting from the trade, I mean, we sort of work with our partners in the trade is to really hold the line, I think, on the pricing. And I think it's important that we remember that we -- in this market, we have never really increased prices on prepaid. So if you think about it, I mean, of 30 years, pretty much we had prepaid prices going down or staying the same. So first for the market, we need to allow the market for this to ferment in the market and see how long before it comes through. So we remain committed that we need to manage our network with inflationary pricing profile. So let's see going forward how this comes through.

And maybe just to add to Charles' comments. I mean, I think this is a very important point. that we have to sustain this level of price increase. And my guidance to Charles is that we just have to hold hands for a couple of quarters. It takes some time to have these price increases established across the markets, the internal channels. We're seeing some good progress there. I think we'll have to work on the external channels, but we do need to see this through a couple of quarters. So probably Q1 and Q2 will probably remain tough, but I think we'll start seeing the base effects coming through.

Yes. Maybe just a question that's linked to it. I think it's more around consumer behavior. Can you give a bit more color on consumer behavior that you're seeing since the price increases on prepaid bundles. We haven't really seen a change in ARPU. You mentioned a lag, but are you seeing any early trends that give you trends in customer spend over the last month or so?

Look, I mean, because this is new, I mean, you have to think about on prepaid. And remember, we did the price changes both on what we call BTL, so our private pricing regime and also on the headline pricing. So customers, when they see this, I mean, they look for other areas where they can optimize. We have to manage, especially around the BTL pricing. So we'll think that there's a little bit of movement in the customer trying to optimize, but we are adjusting prices across all price segments. So whether it is private pricing on M for you or is pricing on open market, we'll have the again just to give you time and to see the profile of the customer going forward.

Thanks, Charles. And then I'm not sure if this is a question on SA or the group. Can you please discuss quarterly adjusted margin trends -- can you confirm what magnitude the 3Q margins or quarter 3 margins improved versus quarter 2? That's attached to questions.

So I think maybe from a group perspective, we have seen an overall improvement in Q3 relative to Q2. And as we've said, this came about also as a result of firstly, better performance on the revenue line, but also improvement in the cost as a result of the IHS negotiated contracts from Nigeria. So we are seeing an improvement quarter-on-quarter. I don't know if Dineo wants to say anything on SA.

On SA as well, we do see an improvement quarter-on-quarter when you normalize for the underlying effects, the biggest one being the once-off revenue that's -- or income that we received on the disposal of the insurance book.

That would have been in the first half of the year. Just another question on the markets. Can you provide some color on why Ivory Coast revenue is declining in local currency? Is this due to revenue market share losses?

Yes. Côte d'Ivoire has been a competitive market in recent times, actually, both for the GSM business and fintech. We're kind of realigning our own pricing strategy. So we've had to cut pricing to remain competitive, both in the fintech as well as the GSM business. So we've got a turnaround strategy there, in particular, to win data market share back. So that's much more competitive dynamics. You will know the market there is Orange, there's move there, and we are realigning our pricing to take on -- to rebuild market share in Côte d'Ivoire. That's what has impacted the revenue trends that you see in Q3.

Thank you, Ralph. If we come to -- there's a balance sheet question. Holdco leverage is at 1.8. Does this include all localization proceeds? Have all the proceeds been up streamed? And in the absence of meaningful growth in SA EBITDA, how should we be thinking about Holdco leverage progression? Are you experiencing any kind of step-up in cash upstreaming in the fourth quarter? Or should we expect leverage to remain at 1.8 in the near term?

Yes. So I mean, as we indicated earlier is that we do expect to see an improvement. We have, however, indicated at the beginning of the year that -- we expect Holdco leverage this year to be slightly above the guided medium-term target of 1.5. We do expect an improvement, however, from the 1.8 of where we are currently. We don't expect to see a deterioration in MTN SA, EBITDA, and we do expect to see additional upstreaming coming in the last quarter. So we expect overall our cash upstreaming for the year to be in line with similar trends as last year.

Thanks. And then just back to South Africa. It's linked to the prior question. So margins were good in handset sales did not have the uptick we're expecting from your move to sell more handsets. Have you abandoned plans to push more handset sales? Or is it still coming?

Yes. I mean we remain a bit more balanced on the issue of devices. Prepaid, I think we continue, but we're also working with our partners. I mean we have the likes of PEP who are working with us in terms of the acquisition of devices. The idea is that can we find a better way to finance our devices while we continue to compete. So I sort of like to balance the issue of working capital cash implication and the customer acquisitions, Dineo?

Also from a margin perspective on devices, we are quite pleased with the performance that we are seeing. We are tending to sell our devices more and more in a positive margin range. So that's quite pleasing for us.

Thank you. Just a question on fiber. Given the decision on CIVH Vodacom deal, how does that change or impact your fiber plans? You still try to go for Telkom with fiber assets?

It's a very leading question. Look, I mean, the tribunal decision has been made, but the reasons have not been disclosed. And our understanding is that it's quite likely that Vodacom will challenge the competition appeals court. So I mean -- and that's still to all play out. our anticipation that the reasons will be communicated well before the end of January. That's our understanding. Look, I mean in terms of strategy for South African and Charles will come in here, I mean, we remain quite focused on ensuring we have a blend of technologies to get to the home. Fixed wireless access, we're exploring some POCs on millimeter wave and the fiber remains a strategic view that we have that ultimately, you need that to compete in the medium to long term. So I mean, let's wait and see what comes out of the reasons from the competition tribunal as and when if Vodacom will appeal, it's to be seen. Charles, anything else?

Yes. I mean while we were in discussion around the future strategy around acquisition, what we want to make it very clear is that we are still executing our fiber-to-the-home acquisitions. So we are making progress on a number of fronts. So the way we are taking the home, we're taking the home using what you call fixed LTE. And then we're also pushing the customers through 5G, FWA and then fiber to the home. So from an MTN perspective, on the organic basis, we continue to execute. And I think we're seeing quite a nice uplift in terms of the FWA customers. We're seeing a very good uplift in terms of FTTH as well, while in the process we work on the issue of acquisition.

Thank you. If we get into -- still on South Africa, what was the data traffic in -- I think we can give that -- we'll give that to you offline, Mike. Just to confirm, MTN Ghana has reached localization in both the GSM and the Momo businesses? Or is it just one?

No, it's both businesses. Actually, the GSM business localization is 25%. But whilst the Bank of Ghana wanted to 30%, so the 2 different regulators were at different levels. So we went for the higher level, so which means that we exceed at the GSM level but meet at the Bank of Ghana level.

Thanks, Ralph. What sort of elasticity do you have in the Nigerian business? What revenue growth could we expect for every 10% increase in prices?

Well, that's a complicated question. You asking us to make a whole lot of assumptions. I'm sure Ever ask is much smarter than us. I mean I think what I would say is that in Nigeria, the underlying demand for data remains very, very robust. And that's why we put additional CapEx. We're starting to see some cells congest because we're seeing enormous amount of traffic coming towards. So we have added a bit of CapEx. I mean, I think the quantum is order of magnitude of just over $100 million that's gone in to ensure that we release congestion in some of the cells about 5,000, 6,000-odd cells where we're seeing congestion. And for us, that's a good indicator that the underlying structural growth will be there. I think if you're asking the question about price increases and elasticity fix, I mean, we can just go back to last year. I mean, last year, we put in -- we did the bundle optimization, took out about 28 bundles of data bundles that had an effective price increase of about 13% there. And that's what's fueled the growth. So increase in usage and some of that increase has supported the very strong data growth that you've seen that's kind of above 40%. And when we experienced that increase in October last year, we kind of had a bit of negative elasticity, if my memory serves me right in November and December came back in January it was very strong. So that may help you kind of frame what could happen if there's a tariff increase regime. I mean, not to belabor the point on tariff increase, I mean, what we would -- we have been engaging on both group and locally is that what would be really ideal is a multi-period regime, not just a single year increase. So that provides a framework for kind of sustained investment going forward. But as I said, the timing of that has not been determined, but we've been encouraged by the discussions we've had on tariff increases in Nigeria.

Here's another question on Nigeria. Based off the renegotiated leases in Nigeria and assuming no headline tariff increases, when do you expect to move out of a negative equity situation in Nigeria?

You guys do your own modeling, I'm sure you put your assumptions about -- I mean, there are many assumptions here, what's inflation going to be, what is the currency going to be? I mean, I guess we know our rollout plan. You don't know what our rollout plan is. But we gave guidance towards the impact for this year where we said we take the 33% to 35% becomes a 35% to 37% as an EBITDA margin impact just for this year as an uplift. And we're seeing the momentum coming through. So I mean, it certainly wouldn't be a 1 year. It wouldn't kind of wash itself out next year. I mean that mathematically won't be possible depending on the currency assumptions that you put in. But as Tsholo mentioned, I mean, I think what you'll see is every year as we go towards the 2032 the impact of the lease extensions becomes one year less. So that impact in terms of finance cost line becomes more muted. We do have an inflation cap right now at the local CPI at 20%. I think next year, we'll still be kind of in the money on that part of -- if you look at projected inflation. So that should support both the OpEx and also some of the finance costs below in the way we split the leases. So we're encouraged by the profile. But certainly, we won't come out of it in 1 year. The math just simply doesn't work that way. So -- but I think what you should see is an improving profile of EBITDA margins. You'll see the trend that Tsholo showed a little bit earlier will progressively improve.

And then just linked to that, thanks, Ralph. Is there scope for a repeat of bundle optimization in Nigeria?

Look, I mean, there's scope for that. I mean all our efforts right now have been focused on working through the industry and engagements with the authorities about how do we sustain investment or create an environment where we can actually put more investment into the market. That's an industry conversation, not just MTN. -- we, Airtel and others are having that similar discussion. So that's where we put all our kind of efforts. We didn't want to muddy the regulatory engagements at the same time and talk about many things. So as I said, we feel a lot more comfortable that the discussions will yield positive, just a matter of timing. So to answer the question, we frankly have not been discussing with the authorities bundle optimization. But it's always a possibility, but that's not where our energy has gone through in the last couple of months.

Thanks, Ralph. Is there any reason -- I guess this is Nigeria again. Is there any obvious reason for why the U.S. -- the naira to the dollar rate in the parallel market is 17.40 and has started to widen versus the NAFEX rate of 16.60, as liquidity at the NX rate remained strong?

I guess the one thing you always have to look at in the parallel market rate is how much liquidity, how much dollar liquidity is available at that price point. I mean what we're experiencing is for the dollars that we need to cover LCs and CapEx, we're able to get it at the official rate. There isn't -- we're not procuring any of the foreign currency at the parallel market rate. So at the BDCs, the volume effects, the BDC probably drives mostly what you see in the parallel market rates. There may be very limited liquidity there. But for the volumes we need, we haven't had to purchase at that level. So I can't give you an answer more than that in terms of the liquidity. I think if you look at what the Central Bank has been doing, and I think they've been focused on reserve accretion. And my guess is that's where the focus has been as opposed to providing ample liquidity, particularly the BDC. But we're not procuring at those levels of the parallel market.

Thanks, Ralph. Then is there any reason why MTN continues to operate in Sudan and South Sudan? Surely, the group would benefit from exiting this region?

Yes. I mean what's formally on our to do list in terms of portfolio optimization has been the small weaker market. So Guinea Conakry, Guinea Bissau is done, Conakry, we're working on, and we'll look at Liberia in due course. Look, we are assessing the situation, and let's split these into 2 different buckets. There's Sudan and then the South Sudan. South Sudan, we have an operation there. It funds its own growth. It's not a massive, massive market, but we're not having to put our own group capital there. Sudan or some people call North Sudan, of course, it's in a war contract, and we are managing as best we can within that context. We've got the Switch, which was impacted in Kraton. We've rebuilt that in Port Sudan and that supported some the revenue coming back. I mean we'll continue to assess the situation. It's difficult to manage the business with your management teams in Egypt and Dubai. So we're assessing that situation, trying to get a better understanding is the situation, the war situation going to abate. And at the right time, the Board may make a decision around that market. But for now, we are operating there, but assessing the war conditions and the risk issues in that market. But South Sudan is a very different situation, which is kind of funding its own growth.

Back to Nigeria, given that the Nigeria lease negotiations in the rearview mirror, all else being equal on inflation, currency, et cetera, would you be able to pay a dividend to the group from Nigeria? I guess that's linked to the negative equity question.

Yes, not next year. I wouldn't do that. I mean that's a very straightforward answer. You see the size of the negative equity. And I mean the issue is not just negative equity, it's distributable reserves. So actually, the problem you have to solve is to deal with the distributable reserves before you can. But outside of something structural, I mean, next year, we wouldn't be able to do that. And I guess that will inform the guidance on how we think about dividends when we speak to investors in March next year. I mean it will -- right now, that dividend is being supported by the cash upstreaming that Su spoke about. If we have a similar levels of cash upstreaming, I mean, I think one would anticipate that we are looking at the business in that frame where there is no contribution from Nigeria in next year.

Your IFRS 16 CapEx seems to be ZAR 43 billion in the 9 months, which is already in the high end of the 2024 guidance. Can you explain?

Yes. I mean I think it will likely be above that. I think what -- how you should think about this is that the guidance would exclude the effect of the renewed contract in Nigeria when we did the guidance. And this would obviously be quite meaningful since the signing of the renegotiated contract and probably adding ZAR 7 billion to ZAR 8 billion in the range of what we've given on our sense.

And then just a follow-up to that. Can you disclose your leverage in IFRS 16 standards net debt to last 12 months EBITDA. So net debt in IFRS 16.

Yes. I mean I think it's definitely in the order of our medium-term targeted range of 1.5x or thereabout.

So IFRS would be 1.5x.

Yes.

Okay. That one has been answered. How much of the ZAR 7 billion to ZAR 8 billion cost savings have you already achieved?

Yes. I mean it remains a key focus. I think we reported about ZAR 2.8 billion in Q1. I think we're just above ZAR 3 billion by now in quarter 3 for the year-to-date.

Also for 2024?

Yes.

So it's the year-to-date progression. Would you consider -- I guess, it's similar to the other question, would you consider to deconsolidate Iran, given the developments there?

I mean, financially, it's an associate.

Yes. It's an investment in associate, which we show separately on our income statement and balance sheet.

On mobile money, SA and Nigeria are the 2 markets where you have been unsuccessful so far. These 2 businesses appear to be changing leadership every 2 years or so. And with the leadership changes comes strategy changes. Are you not being too shortsighted on mobile money strategies in these markets?

I think it's a fair question to ask us. I mean, these 2 markets, we haven't had as much success as we've had in the other markets. But what I would say, starting with Nigeria is -- and we've had Frase join that business. And we're kind of rethinking the strategy of do we need something beyond the PSB license. That's a conversation we're beginning to assess ourselves to say what do we need to ultimately succeed. Now the PSB license has restrictions, particularly around bank tax stock lending. And I think when you look at the other players who've been in the market longer, you take Palmpay, OPay, I think a strong underpin beyond just payments is the ability to leverage an appropriate lending solution to the customers. So we -- the PSB, I think it's a foundational license and construct, but it's not going to be the only way to succeed, and we are reevaluating in particular, what lending would need to look like. And I think when we have completed that work, I think you will hear from us more. So it's not really a leadership issue. So that's on Nigeria. I'll ask Charles to talk about SA.

Yes. Thanks a lot. I mean on the SA, I mean the strategy remains the same. The change in leadership was really not a strategy issue. If I was to be a bit more specific about Bredwind, who did a good job for us, I mean, you got quite a very strong and enticing offer for Jumo. It was not necessarily because there's a conflict or a change in strategy. So we remain very clear on the segment that we need to play within are very clear on the propositions and the products, and we remain very consistent about that. I think for us in South Africa, it's really just about acquisition. We've got a very strong product portfolio. We've got a very good app. So it's just to push onboarding of customers.

Thanks, Charles. Thanks, Ralph. It looks like the last question on the webcast. Any update on your governance issues with IHS? Has that been resolved?

No, we've been focusing on just getting this commercial renegotiation and up and running. That's where all our energies have gone. As we said, we didn't put a time bar to resolving the governance issues. I think if we go back where the pushback from IHS was that MTN was in a process over the near term, needing to negotiate a whole bunch of contracts from Nigeria to Côte d'Ivoire, Rwanda, Cameron and so forth. And that could impact any kind of governance issues related to our asks around the ability to nominate and for our shares at the time of voting to be treated equally with other shareholders and not have a voting cap. Those issues around contract renegotiations have been done. There's no contract to renegotiate with IHS now. All of it is done. So that removes that -- those set of issues. We just have not pushed to prioritize resolving that now. There's no urgency to push it at the moment because we're trying to bed down the stuff that's there in Nigeria as and when we'll pick that up. I spent a bunch of time with the last couple of weeks. And I think our focus has really been around Nigeria and ensuring that the operation is sustainable. We have our sites well fueled with network availability up. And then the other issue that's important is our tariff increase is also important to them. The industry sustainability has very first order effects for them. And they're playing a role as well towards supporting engagements with the authorities towards a tariff increase regime in Nigeria.

Thanks so much, Ralph. I've pressed the refresh button a couple of times. There are no more questions on the call. If there are any further questions as you go, please do reach out and touch base and we'll help you out. Ralph, I don't know if you've got 1 or 2 words to close.

I don't know if it's 1 or 2. I got many words. But suffice to say, I mean, thanks very much to the investors kind of holding our hands through a tough period. As I said, I think as management, we feel although the market is still challenging, there's been kind of an easing of tough conditions. I think the second thing is you're seeing quarter-on-quarter broadly momentum building up, you see the service revenue. For sure, there are a couple of areas we need to work on SA's about prepaid. And I think it's really important that we sustain kind of a pricing thought process, both for CBM, below the line pricing and above the line. We need to sustain a couple of quarters the decisions and actions we've taken. They may hurt a little bit sequential quarters. But I think medium term, it's the right thing. And then that should support us getting margins towards the lower end. And I think we've been quite consistent that in the near term, anticipate margins at the lower end of our range and driving further efficiencies and a bit of more top line is what gets us towards the 39%. Nigeria, it's all about really accelerating the top line. We put a bit more CapEx in, as I mentioned, because we're seeing good growth. And we'll continue to work on the tariff regime and other measures that would resolve the negative equity and distributable reserves. And as Tuas mentioned, we're not particularly worried about 1.8x. I think the debt mix underneath that 1.8x is also an important consideration. A few years ago, that number would have been 80% dollar. It's now the other way around, it's 20% dollar, and we just redeemed the 2024 bonds. We just got a stack of 2026 bonds to come. So that Holdco leverage, we feel will ease and come back as we do more upstreaming for the balance of this year. And then executing on our strategies, fintech, obviously, is critical and important. And we're going to keep pushing also in terms of sustained performance from the markets business, Ghana and Uganda doing excellent heavy lifting, pushing for better contribution, Rwanda, Côte d'Ivoire and Zambia. And that should really sustain the investment case as we go into next year.

Thanks very much, Ralph. So, Charles, Dineo for facilitating the call. We will send, as I mentioned earlier, the slides probably within the next 30 minutes on our distribution, and we'll put it up on the website as well. Thank you very much.

Thanks, everybody. much appreciate it.