N Banka d.d. (NLBR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

March 4, 2022

Ljubljana Stock Exchange SI Financials Banks m_and_a 41 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Ladies and gentlemen, the Management Board of NLB welcomes you to the webcast, where they will present the acquisition of Sberbank banka d.d. Today's presenters are Blaz Brodnjak, CEO; and Archibald Kremser, CFO. [Operator Instructions] Before we go on, we would like to draw your attention to the disclaimer on Slide 2 of the presentation. By this, I pass the word to Mr. Brodnjak.

Blaž Brodnjak

executive
#2

Good morning, everyone. We are back pretty soon, right? We haven't expected we would be back so soon. But frankly, in the last days, we've had very, very dynamic developments, and we're practically confronted on Saturday morning by the circumstances of a significant liquidity squeeze and eventually then also, of course, interventions of the regulatory bodies, in this instance, Single Resolution Board as the European authority for this matters in connection obviously with the Bank of Slovenia. And we have learned on Saturday that Slovenian subsidiary of Sberbank Group, Sberbank banka Slovenia, has had actually significant outflows announced. And by that, obviously, the Bank of Slovenia, in cooperation with the SRB, actually stopped operations of the bank for 2 days, so frozen all the operations and shut down the branches. And within this period, they tried to find a solution within the regular framework of how to tackle such situations by the Single Resolution Board as one of the key, of course, European bodies within the European monetary union and banking union idea. So in this respect, of course, this was a regular process that is pretty standardized and is, of course, also clearly prescribed. NLB has been made sure and known that in this respect, there is an opportunity for the bank to eventually place the bid. And basically, we've had 2 days to deliver the binding bid within the competitive process. We understand there were at least one, if not more, competitive bids. But at the same time, clearly, not only the price mattered but obviously as well as the capacity, the capital strength and liquidity strength of the bank that is actually jumping in. So in this respect, NLB, and I'm really proud my team, was able to pull off within more or less 1 -- 0.5 working day actually, so over the weekend and 0.5 working day, a credible binding bid, which was then also accepted by the Single Resolution Board. And practically at the end of Tuesday, so just 8 hours before actually the branches would have to close, we actually were informed that the -- everything is more or less concluded in a sense that NLB has been selected as the recipient bank, that NLB has been actually also, of course, by that, get into a possession of shares. So on the morning of Tuesday -- or on Wednesday, I apologize, March 1, we actually then -- March 2, I apologize, we actually were already in a possession of the shares of Sberbank banka, so 100% owner of Sberbank banka. We already conducted all the necessary communication to the public. And I'm really happy that actually there was a bit more traffic in the branches for the first 2 hours, but mainly people giving positive feedbacks and praise to the bank rather than there would be any significant outflows. So we practically immediately contained eventual liquidity squeeze. And we practically stabilized the entire operations of the bank in a matter of moments frankly, not even hours. So in this respect, this was obviously a unique exercise. We have not hoped for something like this coming out of the Ukrainian crisis that, of course, no one believed could be possible. But of course, at the end of the day, we have proven as a systemic institution, together with Single Resolution Board and Bank of Slovenia and also the government of Republic of Slovenia, that in such a crisis situation, we've had mechanisms and we've had the power within the system to immediately resolve and immediately recover the situation for the benefit -- to the benefit of clients actually, depositors, the businesses and, of course, by that, also the entire banking system. We have taken over the bank that we believe is strategically fully fitting. This is, of course, our core market. We are headquartered in Slovenia. This is our home market. And Sberbank has been, of course, a reasonable bank, a very reasonable bank, a very nice distribution of portfolios and fully complementary to NLB's operations on one side, on the other hand, clearly a bit subscale for stand-alone, high competitive edge in long term. But of course, in view of the synergies, this is absolutely a complementary and absolutely covering operations. So in this respect, this caters for significant in-market consolidation opportunity. And of course, we will be tackling this, and we have proven we can handle integration successfully also just in the recent past. So we have successfully integrated the bank in Montenegro last year. And we are just closing the integration -- finishing integration in Serbia of two banks. So we do have the toolbox. We do have the roadmaps how to effectively conduct such an integration. So in this respect, this is really a very, very interesting add-on to our business, significant number of retail clients, also some very interesting corporate relationships. And in this respect, we are above all happy that NLB has demonstrated its responsibility as a systemic institution, on one side, its decisiveness and agility and was able to pull this off. So there is absolutely full strategic rationale as Sberbank also has some very innovative products, be it from digital and be it from card business and so on, a nice talent pool. So we have met quite some already talented people, highly talented people, which we believe can contribute also to the development of the group. So from a strategic point of view, absolutely an opportunity that was worthwhile exploring. And I'm happy actually we were able to pull it off. By that, I would pass the word to Archibald to give you some more information on the financial rationale. And I would wrap up then at the end, of course, and then open floors for the discussion. Thank you.

Archibald Kremser

executive
#3

Thank you, Blaz. Just to quickly wrap up the strategic rationale, clearly Sberbank, as Blaz said, in a way, is subscale with 3.6% market share, but of course, nicely adding up to our market share. But actually not that this is something to underline but maybe worth mentioning, it puts us back in the #1 slot, which I think is also interesting. In terms of the financials, clearly '21 is unaudited. But you see that we have a bank with a relatively stable development over the last couple of years in terms of revenues and costs. Obviously, the net income is below expectations from what you would expect as a return on capital employed. But in any event, of course, for us, a very nicely complementary business. So from a technical financial point of view, clearly something we can easily absorb. And if you look at portfolio composition, again nothing out of the ordinary, very, very good distribution of portfolio with an overhang on retail, which we also like, of course, and of course, a corporate footprint that again can be easily absorbed by NLB. You see a balance sheet size of EUR 1.7 billion, loan book, EUR 1.2 billion roughly. I think more interesting, capital absorption, Blaz has mentioned NLB is strong in terms of capital and liquidity. We always call it a fortress balance sheet. So we are ready for these kind of moments and opportunities. It is also true that for months, we were running kind of strategic M&A preparation project in Q1. And I think this is what, amongst others, made us really able to react towards quickly to such unexpected opportunities. You see that the immediate absorption will reduce on capital adequacy by some 130 bps. And this is pre-negative goodwill, which, of course, there will be some. There is now a technical recognition process initiated. So the purchase price allocation, as it's called, has to be conducted technically. But then they will also onboard experts, who helped us already in case of Komercijalna Banka to do this swiftly and then properly. And then of course, we will have to assume there will be some fallout from the Swiss franc, some residual Russian exposures. We have tried to quantify it. And we seem to have a stable number of something in the range of EUR 50 million to EUR 80 million. In a good scenario, that includes the Swiss franc impact also on the side of Sberbank Slovenia and so easily absorbed by the negative goodwill. And so by that, just to conclude, this is nicely complementary, if you want, unexpected, acquired at, for sure, a good price, not, I think, overpriced. And in this sense, there is a good strategic and ultimately also financial rationale. What we will now trigger immediately is, of course, a preparation for integration process. And again, the group has, of course, in the last 2 or 3 years, acquired a good experience how to approach such a project. We have a team in place. And of course, we will immediately get going with the technical preparation. For now, I can say this situation that Sberbank banka, or from today on, N Banka, is stable and the liquidity situation is under control. From what we understand, there is no more liquidity support after our initial efforts necessary. And business, I think that's also very important to underline, is resuming normal. So all services, all business needs from clients that are formerly Sberbank banka can be serviced normally. By that, I would pass back to Blaz to wrap it up and then, of course, happy to answer questions.

Blaž Brodnjak

executive
#4

Thank you, Archibald. This just wraps up the whole story right pretty shortly. So there is all strategic and financial rationale for NLB do it. It was, of course, a very intensive couple of days behind us, but it ticks all the boxes of strategic fit and financially reasonable. So in this respect, we believe that we have just delivered even more value to our stakeholders, that this is, of course, an accretive transaction. And we have proven the agility on one side, but on the other side, also the preparedness of the capital and liquidity base for further such activities in the region. So in this respect, we will continue with our ambitions. And we are -- we have practically performed a single-asset analysis in last couple of years within the region. So as soon as any of meaningful assets might get actionable, of course, we might be looking at that. We have announced that we are working obviously on further strengthening the capital base through eventual Tier 2, potentially AT1 issuances. And in this respect, that's something that, of course, would be pursued as soon as markets allow. On the other hand, clearly, we have, by this transaction, not compromised this year's dividend suggestion. So in this respect, that's something that, I think, is very relevant for investors as well. So we added value. But we are, of course, also still planning to pay out the dividend that was envisaged for this year. So this is further more strengthening the message that this was a very good deal to take at the end of the day. Not that we liked the reasons why we had to do it. But of course, the outcome is, I believe, win-win for Sberbank banka that is going to be renamed into N Banka very soon at the upcoming General Assembly. The rebranding is ready. So it's going to be, of course, painted blue as NLB colors. And we will call it N Banka for the easier, of course, recognition and acknowledgment of being the member of NLB Group. And of course, then as soon as we can reasonably integrate, and usually this takes 12 to 18 months, of course, this will be then one bank in Slovenia again only. By that, we return to more or less leading position. And of course, this is less relevant potentially as the outcome. But we have above all stabilized immediately the banking sector and above all protected fully, not with taxpayers' money but with bank money, the deposits of citizens and businesses. And we are receiving pretty high credits for that and appreciation for that. NLB was actually rescued by the people, now NLB was rescuing people. So we are simply returning the trend, more or less demonstrating that the trust we have been granted was more than justified. Now we are there to support. Now we are again a systemic institution. Not much from our end. And of course, now we open for any questions. I would kindly invite you all, hopefully the situation will allow for it obviously, but on 12th of May, we are organizing our first Investor Day in Belgrade. We already announced that on previous occasions. So there will be much more that we could discuss also then hopefully live and in person on that occasion. Now I would open the floor for Q&A. So any questions or comments are more than welcome. Thank you very much.

Operator

operator
#5

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes via the webcast. And newspaper, Delo, would like to know how much subordinated debt to Sberbank d.d. Slovenia still has? In the past, they have subordinated debt from parent bank, Sberbank AG from Austria. And we would like to know what happened with the components of regulatory capital.

Archibald Kremser

executive
#6

These are, if any, immaterial amounts. So I wouldn't comment specifically on that now. Sberbank in Austria in Europe, as you know, is undergoing a separate process. It's basically being liquidated by SRB. But I don't expect material fallout. As we have mentioned on the presentation, we have accommodated in our valuation also for some uncertainties that we are not yet fully aware. Obviously, the process didn't allow for full due diligence. So one of the immediate steps we are initiating is, of course, to run full financial due diligence on the asset. We really need to do this for the purchase price allocation purposes. And we have indicated the amount of adjustments we are expecting from that process. And that can be a variety of all kinds of positions, including ones you mentioned. But of course, paid-in capital is paid-in capital. So in this sense, I'm less worried about such a position.

Operator

operator
#7

Our next question comes from Jovan Sikimic from RBI.

Jovan Sikimic

analyst
#8

Question, I think I'm not sure whether I understood it correctly. The impact on capital is 130 basis points, right, as it is right now?

Archibald Kremser

executive
#9

This is technically risk-weighted asset effect. Obviously, there will be a subsequent effect of purchase price allocation from those adjustments to net asset value and, of course, the residual negative goodwill. So I mean, given the adjustments that we indicate, there will be still room for a substantial negative goodwill eventually. I mean, the equity position is something like EUR 180 million. So if you have to take it up at hypothetically EUR 80 million, obviously, there is EUR 100 million negative goodwill from that transaction. This is all hypothetical as clearly numbers haven't been audited. We didn't do the purchase price allocation. But for illustrative purposes, this is eventually the effect.

Jovan Sikimic

analyst
#10

Okay. And what else did I want to ask? What about the portfolio quality roughly, I mean, corporate business and retail? Does it compare well to your, let's say, NLB Slovenia operations? Or is it significantly weaker?

Blaž Brodnjak

executive
#11

No, it is actually quite of high quality. So we were actually positively surprised. So in this respect, when it comes to large corporate orders, we haven't found any weird positions. There is some in Russia and Belarus, but I think it's manageable and well within these NAV adjustments announced. So in this respect, this seems to be fully contained. And we are amazed about actually the client satisfaction of retail segment. So we really found out that there is a very high NPS. For example, for retail clients, there are really some innovative digital and card-related solutions and that people in branches are very, very much client-oriented focused. So we really like the retail book and the retail approach, so -- and we found also a significant talent pool as well, which we believe is highly committed, hard-working and we can really be benefiting from it as a group.

Jovan Sikimic

analyst
#12

Yes. And synergies, you cannot right now quantify, I mean, cost synergies? It's too early, right, so you'll do it in Belgrade?

Blaž Brodnjak

executive
#13

Do what to quantify what, sorry?

Jovan Sikimic

analyst
#14

Cost synergies.

Blaž Brodnjak

executive
#15

No, cost synergies not exactly. We will, of course, come out with that. It's soon. But they come on negative clearly. I mean, this is really, we believe, of course, a very transaction [indiscernible].

Jovan Sikimic

analyst
#16

Yes. And in general, I mean, how does it -- I mean, I don't know, the end, let's say, impact on capital. But it is probably much less than this 130, of course, so I don't know, tens of bps maybe. But how does it affect your, let's say, future M&A strategy, given this kind of surprising move or unexpected move? Does it have any impact? Can you say something on that or it's still too early again?

Blaž Brodnjak

executive
#17

Well, it is a full strategic fit with what we have communicated so far, right? This is our core market. This is an incremental add-on, fully palatable, well within the margins of what is also accepted by the antitrust perspective and so on. So this is fully a strategic landscape fit. We were a bit sorry that, of course, the entire Sberbank Group at that point of time was actually sold to the other competitor. But at the end, this now has given us the opportunity to actually come in possession of Sberbank Slovenia, which we believe is a very reasonable operation. So sometimes you need a bit of luck, I guess, coming your way as well. And this is in no way in conflict or in collision with our other ambitions on this turf. So let's see whether there might be still something happening in Slovenia. There might be clearly something happening in Croatia. But of course, we don't yet have clearance. So we have hoped for the clearance to be able to enter the Croatian market by the politicians until Slovenian elections. But unfortunately, we have not got the clearance. So I wouldn't expect it also happens until the end of April that we see what's happening after the election. So great shot for us still. And other markets are, of course, always under the scrutiny and the analysis, right? So if there were any reasonable opportunities in Serbia or Albania, we wouldn't shy away from analyzing. But that has to be actionable assets. So, so far, we haven't found such actionable assets.

Jovan Sikimic

analyst
#18

Okay. And the last one, if I may, on -- I mean, I understand the deposit outflow stopped, right, immediately more or less. So is it okay, business as usual more or less if one can say this?

Blaž Brodnjak

executive
#19

This was immediately contained on Wednesday morning. So there was a bit more traffic in the branches, but more or less out of curiosity and simply making sure that the money is there and they can withdraw. But then they actually -- people recalled majority of the outflows that were already in the pipeline. And we had completely normal afternoon on Wednesday and absolutely normal yesterday and today. So the situation is back to fully normal. The bank is fully depending on its own liquidity. So they don't need our backup line at all, although we have, of course, provided up to EUR 5 billion backup line, if needed, but it's not needed.

Archibald Kremser

executive
#20

I mean, to be sure, there was some support on day 1. And I think it's also important to mention, this is always a self-fulfilling prophecy. So once people understand their money is safe and there is a strong backup line, then of course, the desire to withdraw money immediately evaporates. This is by no means to say that the effort was in vain by SRB. I think SRB did the right thing by choosing NLB as a strong partner and us providing and having the capacity to provide this material liquidity in case of need, of course, immediately stopped the urge of many people to move their money away.

Operator

operator
#21

Our next question comes from [ Anton ] from Allianz Croatia, who stated congratulations on achieving such a good transaction price. Will the acquisition impact the planned dividend policy for 2022 and 2023?

Blaž Brodnjak

executive
#22

No, I mentioned that in principle, this dividend should be safe, right, for '22, and of course, then in normal evolution of '22, of course, also '23. So we stick to the envisaged plan. Of course, the situation has become much more dynamic, right? So we will see what this Ukrainian situation will bring into the strategies of some other players from the region. And you know who is playing in the region and you know well who is, to what extent, exposed to Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and so on and adjacent countries. And what this could bring to the eventual their thinking in terms of strategic positioning, capital adequacy, eventual capital measures and so on and potentially even as much as the management bandwidth allows also eventually vendor engagements. In this respect, we would always be ready to look at and analyze assets. So this might simply accelerate certain things that we have been planning for the years to come. But they might come our way much earlier. And here, our message is always very simple and very clear. We always apply the utmost discipline in understanding the accretion of value for the stakeholders. So we would not undergo into any of such transactions if we didn't really believe that there is significant EPS accretion and that, of course, we can earn north of the cost of capital engaged. So in this respect, if there were material opportunities, of course, we would -- we have still a significant toolbox with Tier 2 and AT1 and so on. And there might be then, of course, considerations whether it makes sense to pay out so significant dividends if there is such a lucrative opportunity to grow through the M&A. But this would be then, of course, discussed at the General Assembly at the end of the day. At the end of the day, General Assembly discusses the dividend, right?

Archibald Kremser

executive
#23

I would just complement that we are trying to elaborate a bit more specifically our thinking for the Investor Day as well, so give a bit of a better feel for the tradeoffs involved, Blaz mentioned then dividend versus M&A capacity and, of course, ability to raise incremental capital. So we'll try to order this equation a bit more structured for the upcoming Investor Day.

Operator

operator
#24

The next question comes from Gaynor Davies from EBRD, who is asking will Sberbank Bank become part of the Slovenian resolution group? And if so, what impacts will it have on MREL requirements?

Archibald Kremser

executive
#25

So the MREL equation, of course, is always the same. The risk-weighted asset base of the resolution group, which, of course, after a merger, I'm talking after a merger, so not as a subsidiary but after a merger, the Sberbank assets and liabilities will become, of course, a part of the resolution group. And then it's relatively simple. You take the risk-weighted asset base, that's roughly EUR 1 billion and roughly 1/3 of that adds to the MREL requirement. So of course, we are also getting very focused on our meeting and meet the needs. And that's why you will see us very active also in acquiring MREL-eligible liabilities.

Operator

operator
#26

The next question comes from Dino from InterCapital, who is asking Sberbank shareholders' equities, EUR 195 million. You mentioned a possible EUR 50 million to EUR 80 million hit for Russia and CHF. This leaves really a lot of room for your profit or negative goodwill. Taking into account that you're only paying EUR 5 million, is there something else I'm missing? How come no one offered more?

Blaž Brodnjak

executive
#27

Well, it is not -- now it's easy to be smart. But on Saturday morning, it was envisaged that on Wednesday, the bank would need up to EUR 500 million of backup liquidity line. So equity is one category, but the money you chip in and risk is a different category. So NLB actually didn't offer only EUR 5 million but offered also up to EUR 500 million liquidity support. And that's not trivial. There was no one else providing such a backbone. Even if there was someone maybe offering more capital, it was not able to offer such strong liquidity backup if needed. And on Tuesday evening, no one knew what would Wednesday morning bring. I actually claimed that we performed an excellent communication and by that, actually calmed down the whole stuff, right, so going down to people by really properly communicating. If we didn't pull this one off well, it could easily be that we would have to be extending today still significant lines in hundreds of millions, right? And we would simply be losing customer base as well. So it was not such a trivial case if you look at now. Of course, we are all generals after battle. But no one really knew how this battle would be evolving on Wednesday. And I'm really enormously proud how effectively our communication actually contained the whole stuff. So this was really -- I really played down the communication that was done excellently. But we, as said, we didn't provide EUR 5 million only. We provided also up to EUR 500 million liquidity. And that's meaningful.

Archibald Kremser

executive
#28

And obviously, the obvious -- to mention the obvious, this was a transaction happening without due diligence. So I repeat, we still have to run a due diligence process. And then of course, when you make a bid, you have to make your call, what is your view on value, what is your view on risk and of course, what is your absorption capacity. As Blaz mentioned, it's not just liquidity support, it's also capital support in case of need, so -- and of course, there are just a limited number of players that ultimately can pull this off, as Blaz said, overnight and -- but it's a competitive process run by SRB. And with regards to competition, the questions raised, you should be asking SRB.

Blaž Brodnjak

executive
#29

The alternative was frankly liquidation. And liquidation is fully unpredictable. So Sberbank Europe is immaterial in Austria, Sberbank banka in Ljubljana was not immaterial. So for Slovenia, this would have spillover effect, which would be very, very difficult to contain. If the bank simply went into liquidation, by that, compromise eventually 50% of deposits of corporates in the bank that are not protected by any scheme, right? So this would cause a significant turmoil for the liquidity of the entire economy here and banking system, obviously. So now we're all happy and now we all breathe easily. But this could be, on Wednesday, a real mess, a really big mess. And I'm really happy how the whole system works, that these banking union principles do work. We have now a proven case that the SRB works, right? The mechanism of resolution as a better alternative to liquidation is obviously meaningful. And we were able to pull it off. And I'm really, really proud of that.

Archibald Kremser

executive
#30

And not just liquidation, state aid eventually was usually the old option, right? So I mean, not to praise SRB here, but here, the new regulation really prevented very swiftly and with really certainty -- I think, that's also important to mention what SRB and the framework, they provided certainty under very unusual circumstances. So that, I think, really has to be underlined. And this framework really, at this particular case, I think showed that it works.

Operator

operator
#31

Our next question comes from Maja from Croatian Insurance Company, who is asking please give us more details on real expected cash flow, outflows particularly related with this acquisition, especially parts related with potential impact of CHF law and exposure to Russia and Ukraine.

Archibald Kremser

executive
#32

I think we can't be more specific at this moment as we've been. I think we've been very transparent already, given circumstances. And everything else, I would ask you for patience for offsetting then the homework in due diligence. I would assume for the Investor Day, we can share more. But for now, that's pretty much it.

Blaž Brodnjak

executive
#33

We are guiding with NAV adjustments in principle. So we wouldn't expect this goes any way out of this territory. And liquidity, we mentioned it's contained. So the bank is practically independent again. And on the other hand, when it comes to the other implications, we are guiding with the NAV adjustment range.

Operator

operator
#34

Our next question comes from Dino from InterCapital. He was asking do you have an idea of how high a market share the regulator would tolerate for you in Slovenia?

Blaž Brodnjak

executive
#35

Well, there was hardly time to discuss that. We were actually in a resolution mode. And we are now just about the size of, so far, our largest competitor. So OTP Group, as you know, bought the bank #2, 3, 4. And before that, there were 6 banks actually consolidated into 1 to come to just short of 30% market share, and we are now somewhere there. So we are a couple of tens of million away. So there was no -- I guess, any dilemma on that. What is the potential endgame? And would NLB be allowed to do more? This is, of course, much too early to discuss and to speculate on. But there are some markets where you see players such as Ireland, such as Latvia, I think, such as Greece, where you would see the largest player holding higher market shares. And by that, I don't prejudge or preempt any of eventual outcomes.

Operator

operator
#36

We have another question from Maja from Croatian Insurance Company, who is asking do you plan to strengthen your capital position plan regarding that?

Blaž Brodnjak

executive
#37

We commented, right, we are continuously working on potentially issuing some capital instruments and say it's not necessarily only to beef up the capital, but of course, optimize the capital as well. And on the other hand, there are also MREL requirements. So if we are issuing such instruments, we prefer for them to tick all the boxes. The markets, we know, have been very volatile as we speak, right? So we would hope that in Q2, they would stabilize a bit. Specifically, we are suffering really with this situation in Europe. And generally, of course, we cannot accept mentally any aggression among human beings anywhere in the world. So we are suffering from this all mentally, I guess. But we would hope that at the end of the day, the markets will provide some windows of opportunity in Q2 for us then to eventually approach the markets with such instruments. But otherwise, we don't have a desperate need, clearly. So that's for -- so this would only be needed if we saw really significant opportunities. And for that, obviously, you would have to provide also the capital. But if you are able to transact in this way and then of course, we would hope for quick reactions from regulators to, of course, also then acknowledge the negative goodwill within the capital adequacy and so on, then this, of course, is helping your capital structure pretty effectively. So if any valuations would be done available below the book, again we will be potentially talking about negative goodwill coming, obviously, with a bit of delay but coming, so -- but we cannot be more concrete than that. So we have announced publicly, we are considering options. We are testing the market. And as soon as markets allow, we might come out with meaningful capital instruments.

Operator

operator
#38

We now have a follow-up question on the telephone line from Jovan Sikimic from RBI.

Jovan Sikimic

analyst
#39

Yes. Sorry again, actually, I'm not sure whether we talked about this. But what's NLB's -- I mean, excluding Sberbank's Russian exposure, direct, indirect? I mean, you consolidated, of course, Komercijalna. Is there any exposure there towards, I don't know, [indiscernible] or some companies, which also have some relations to Russia? If you can quantify that, it would be very good in the context of, of course, current situation or indicate.

Archibald Kremser

executive
#40

So nothing of material effects. Of course, I'm talking about direct. Indirect, it's harder to tell, right, because some economies are more leaning towards exporting to Russia or Ukraine, others are not. But for the time being, it estimated there's no material fallout. So it's uncertain times. So we always have to be carefully in making such judgments. But for the time being, we don't expect material fallout.

Blaž Brodnjak

executive
#41

Direct orders are pretty limited. Indirect, Slovenian exporters are more or less exporting 80% of everything that we export to European Union, and there has been distributed huge globally. And Russia and Belarus and Ukraine are a couple of percentage points of the total export. There is Krka, obviously, that is more affected, but Krka has no credit exposure.

Operator

operator
#42

Our next question comes from [ Ben Jann ] from [indiscernible], who stated any update on the CHF law process?

Archibald Kremser

executive
#43

On Swiss francs, no real news here from our last call.

Blaž Brodnjak

executive
#44

We have filed. So the banks have filed the constitutional assessment and the request for suspension of the law on Monday. So it's now Friday, 4 days, there has been no reaction from the constitutional court yet, so we'll see. We hope for the constitutional court to rule within 2 months, which would, of course, prevent us provisioning. Otherwise, of course, we would have to go into the execution and then Q2 provision. But we mentioned this is the ballpark of EUR 75 million on our end. And there might be some within the NAV of there but within what we guided. So nothing beyond that.

Operator

operator
#45

Our final question comes from Xu Han from S&P Global, who asks thanks for the presentation and update, and congrats to the transaction. Has the cutoff from Sberbank also from an operational perspective, for example, IT, been happening in full already? Or are there still some connections or even obstacles that NLB is facing?

Archibald Kremser

executive
#46

We are, as we speak, in the [indiscernible]. And so first, initial measures have been taken. I can't be specific here. And of course, there is still many dependencies here or there, but nothing that worries us at this moment, so -- but it's still at very early days. So I ask for some understanding. We still need to do some homework, but nothing that would particularly concern us at this moment.

Blaž Brodnjak

executive
#47

And nothing that would affect clients. That's very important as well.

Operator

operator
#48

Thank you. We currently have no further questions. I will now hand back over to the management team for any closing remarks.

Blaž Brodnjak

executive
#49

Thank you very much for attending. This has been an exciting week, obviously. So I'm happy that you understand that this was a pretty unique exercise. I believe it is actually to the benefit of everyone involved, so win-win-win, not only for clients of Sberbank, also to Sberbank banka obviously becoming a part of our group, for NLB but for the entire banking system and the Slovenian economy. And I'm really happy that Slovenian key systemic institutions, including obviously the European regulatory constellation. And here, I really have to give specific credit to the Single Resolution Board and the team there, was able to pull this off in such a meaningful way in such a short time and immediately stabilize the situation. Because anything else would be very, very unpredictable. So thank you very much. Again, a kind invitation, you are cordially invited to our Investor Day in May to Belgrade. And let's all keep the fingers crossed that this insanity in Ukraine stops as soon as possible. Take care, and all the best.

Archibald Kremser

executive
#50

Thank you, and goodbye.

Operator

operator
#51

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

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