Neste Oyj (NESTE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon all. Hope you can hear me okay. And welcome to this pre-silent call. My name is Anssi Tammilehto, I'm the VP of IR at Neste. And welcome to this call regarding our Q4 performance and current topics. The silent period starts on January 9, and the Q4 financial results will be published on February 8 in '24. We have published our pre-silent newsletter today on our website. It wraps up the latest quarter, including the most important releases published during the quarter and highlights our upcoming IR events. You can find it on the Neste Investors site at the Materials segment. With these words, I will now let our CFO, Martti Ala-Harkonen walk you through some of the topical items. Please, Mart.

Hello and good afternoon everybody. This is Mart. Just to check that you can hear me well, if somebody can put a thumb up or -- okay. I assume you are hearing me well. So -- and welcome, everybody, to the call. I will go first through the topical items by business, including our outlook. And after that, we will have a look at some of the most important topics during the fourth quarter. And finally, we will have time for questions. First of all, and importantly, the outlook provided at our third quarter reporting at the end of October remains valid. All forward-looking outlook statements relating to the first quarter of next year as well as the full year of next year remain to be published in our financial year '23 financial statements released to be published on February 8 of next year. As we stated in late October, the outlook in the global economy was expected to continue to be uncertain due to high inflation, reduced economic growth expectations and continued geopolitical uncertainty. We expected volatility in Oil Product and Renewable Product markets to remain high. In this volatile market, I'm satisfied with how Neste has been able to progress forward or during this quarter so far as well as for the whole year of 2023. But let's now go through our businesses one by one, starting with Renewable Products. As for the sales volume firstly of Renewable Products, our fourth quarter sales volume was expected to be somewhat lower than in the previous quarter. This was, for examples, due to our planned maintenance in both Martinez and in Rotterdam. This remains valid. With regard to the ramp-up of our new facilities, importantly, the Singapore new line was expected to be restarting in the first half of November and targeted to reach approximately 75% capacity utilization by the end of this year as well as to contribute to SAF sales volumes in 2024 from the second quarter of next year onwards. I must say that we have proceeded well forward according to this target, and this is definitely positive. We currently have already several weeks of renewable diesel as well as SAF production behind us at the Singapore new line. At Martinez, the full nameplate capacity was expected to be reached by the end of this year. Unfortunately, we did have a fire at the site in November at one of the furnaces related to one of our production lines. We have altogether 3 production lines at Martinez and production at the one line with -- where the fire was -- is for the time being halted due to the ongoing investigations for the root cause of the accident. Our JV partner Marathon Petroleum is acting as the operator for the site. And thus, in this role, they are taking forward the lead in the investigations. One employee was unfortunately injured in the fire and our thoughts continue to be with the coworker and his family during this difficult time, and we have conveyed our concern and support for the wellbeing. Marathon Petroleum cruise responded well to extinguish the fire and as always, we're reviewing all events to understand the root cause. At the time of our third quarter reporting, we told that the Martinez Facility is expected to produce 730 million gallons annually by the end of this year. At this stage, there is no further update to this to share. Except that, as I said earlier, we're currently operating 2 lines out of the total of 3 lines at Martinez. Then turning to the sales margin outlook for Renewable Products. Our fourth quarter comparable sales margin is still expected to be very strong and within the range of USD 800 to USD 900 per ton. The outlook has remained valid. Then a few comments on how some of the main price components have moved so far during this quarter, impacted also our margin for the quarter so far. To start with the average diesel price in the fourth quarter so far, approximately 8% down compared to the third quarter. However, having said that, as a very recent, we have had some problems or the Suez Canal has had some problems, and we've again seen an uptick in the diesel price during this week, which is supportive. As to other pricing components, the largest change has occurred, as you probably well know, in the U.S. and in the RIN D4 value ticket price level. The RIN D4 has been quite stable as such throughout the quarter, moving in the range of about $0.80 to $1 per gallon, but this is, of course, clearly below the third quarter levels of about $1 to $1.60 per gallon. However, importantly, we have hedged quite a large part of our existing RIN D4 ticket base, and this was taken into account when providing the comparable sales margin range of $800 to $900 per ton for the fourth quarter. Going into next year, however, we will, in steps be more exposed to current RIN D4 market prices. The difference between RIN D4 price levels seen on average in the first quarter to the third end of the third quarter was approximately $1.50 per gallon. And in Q4, we're currently standing roughly at $0.85 per gallon. If we just take this difference, there is a difference of about even up to USD 380 per ton in this price component, all other things being equal. As to the main feedstock prices, on the other hand, we have in general seen decreasing based on residue prices, which is, of course, positive to us. Let me provide a couple of examples from the market. The UCO price in China and ARA has decreased by about 10%, whereas in the U.S., the prices come down by as much as 25%. Also animal fat and PFAD prices have been trending downwards, but there are relatively large differences today between the markets. The same declining trend has been seen in vegetable oils. For example, soybean oil has so far decreased by about 20% whereas palm oil only about 3% when comparing Q4 so far versus the third quarter. So overall stating the market price parameters have been trending mainly downwards, like I highlighted on the RIN D4. But on the other hand, also the feedstock prices have been trending downwards. In this volatile environment, I want to highlight again, Neste's competitive advantage and capability of being able to constantly optimize across feedstocks, markets and products. Let's then move to Oil Products. In Oil Products, our fourth quarter total refining margin was expected to be somewhat lower than in the third quarter. The fourth quarter sales volumes were expected to be approximately at the same level as in the corresponding period last year -- previous year. All this remains valid as well. Diesel margins come off, but still remained on a rather good level compared to historical averages. In the third quarter, the diesel crack, for example, was approximately USD 34 per barrel and now we're looking at approximately USD 29 per barrel for Q4 currently. In gasoline, however, the seasonality shows and the margins have come down from USD 31 per barrel in the third quarter to approximately half of that at this stage. On a positive note, our utilization rates in all products in the quarter have so far remained on a high level. And now also, as Martinez, I highlighted a little bit the Suez Canal problems, also the crude price where after it went first down, now it has again ticked upwards of about USD 5 per barrel, probably mainly because of that. To conclude and as a summary for Neste overall then and for the group overall, we expect to have another strong quarter in the fourth quarter. The outlook provided for the fourth quarter in late October remains valid. However, it's good to know that there are, of course, a few weeks still to go into our quarter close as well as into a full year close. Related to Neste's strategy overall and looking forward, we also remain confident that our flexible business model here that the global optimization across feedstocks, products and markets will continue to deliver us a source of sustainable competitive advantage into the future. Next, and before the question-and-answer period, I would still like to summarize some of the key activities, announcements that we have made during the fourth quarter so far. And there are actually quite a number of important issues from the past 6 to 7 weeks. They can also be found in our quarterly IR newsletter, which you can find at our website. To start with, on November 1, we announced the plan to simplify our organizational structure and operating model to secure the execution of our growth strategy with improved cost efficiency as well as to strengthen our long-term competitiveness. With the planned changes and the simplified structure, we also aim to strengthen accountabilities and efficient decision-making at Neste. The planned organizational changes and a more streamlined development portfolio of concrete steps of our Neste Excellent Program, as outlined in our Capital Markets Day in June last -- this year. With Neste Excellence, just to recap, we're targeting over EUR 350 million of EBIT accretive value creation by the end of 2026 compared to the 2022 baseline year, and we're currently well on that track. On November 6, on the other hand, we announced that Neste's ownership in Neste Demeter has increased to 80%, and that Neste has also agreed to acquire the remaining shares of Neste Demeter B.V. over the next few years as agreed with the minority shareholders. Neste Demeter is an important part of our global raw material supply. This is a vital step forward in our strategy of building a global waste and residual material platform to secure our raw material availability and competitiveness going into the future. On November 15, we announced that Neste is issuing EUR 600 million green bond with a 7.5-year maturity under our EMTN or Euro Medium Term Note programme and we will pay a fixed coupon of 3.875% for the bond. The proceeds from the issue will be applied for eligible projects and assets as set out in our green finance framework and I must say it was very pleasing to see the strong investor support that Neste got on our third green bond issue this year. The order book was reached over 5x oversubscribed with participation truly widely from institutional investors across Europe. I think they were all together about 240 investors. And to me, the successful outcome serves as say, clear indication of our strategy transformation and vision to become a global leader in renewable and circular solutions. On December 14, going forward, we provided information that the next major turnaround at Neste's refinery in Porvoo, Finland is scheduled for April, June of next year. During the scheduled time, the entire Porvoo refinery will be shut down for regulatory inspections, maintenance and selected asset improvement initiatives. The estimated duration of the turnaround is approximately 9 weeks. There were some questions from the investment community, while I'm also taking this up why we are having the major turnaround already now and not following a 5-year interval. I can fully assure you that there is nothing extraordinary with this decision. At the time of our last major turnaround in 2021 at Porvoo, we noticed that the 5-year interval is clearly too long and already we saw that it results in a massive one-time scope. At that time, an initial plan was already laid out for a 3-year major turnaround interval going forward, which we are now executing forward. The turnaround is an investment in securing, of course, safety, availability and competitiveness of the refinery. And in addition, this turnaround will contribute importantly to our ambition to make Porvoo refinery, the most sustainable refinery in Europe by 2030 and to reach carbon-neutral production by 2035. As to the Porvoo transformation finally, we announced this morning on December 20 that Neste has completed now the strategic study, which was launched in September of last year and now begins a gradual transformation of our crude oil refinery in Porvoo, Finland into a leading renewable and circular solutions hub. The planned transformation will proceed in phases and requires multiple separate investment decisions during the next decade before targeted completion in about the mid-2030s. We expect the long-term capacity potential after the transformation to be about 3 million tons of renewable and circular products with a lot of optionality, where how to gear between the different products such as renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel and both renewable and circular petrochemical feeds. The total investment estimate for the transformation road map is approximately EUR 2.5 billion. I think this is great news. It being one of the key components in our renewables growth strategy execution as well as in reaching our vision. First, the long-term transformation of the Porvoo refinery is a key element of our renewables growth strategy, like I said, and also completing Neste journey into 100% renewable and circular solutions provider when finalized. Second, it again builds importantly on our capability on flexible raw material usage and flexibility in producing different renewable and circular products. Third, it contributes importantly to the realization of our climate commitments of reducing the greenhouse gas emissions from our production goals 1 and 2 and reaching carbon-neutral production by 2035 and to target to help our customers reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20 million tons of CO2 equivalent by 2030. Finally, and importantly, I also look forward with confidence that our Porvoo transformation will, in due course, provide additional value for all Neste stakeholders. As to our recent IR activity, during the fourth quarter, we have had road shows and attended various conference in London and New York as well as attended several conferences virtually. During the quarter, we also hosted several investor meetings in Helsinki and Espoo, and one investor site visit was also completed in Singapore. And finally, of note is that our silent period will start on Tuesday, 9th of January next year. And as I said earlier, our full year results will be published on Thursday, 8th of February next year at around 9 a.m. Eastern Time. With this, this was a bit longer review going also into some of our topicals, but hopefully helpful. So I would like to thank you for your attention. And now we will have time for questions.

Chilukuru, I think you are raising your hand.

Can you hear me?

Perfectly, Sasi.

Great., I had 2 questions, and maybe I can pick it up from the -- from today's announcement. You talked -- in the press release, you talked about the plant transformation taking -- proceeding in phases and requiring multiple several investment decisions. I was just wondering if you could provide some details on what these phases would be and what should we expect in the near term and the CapEx associated with it? And maybe after that, I can follow up with my second question.

Okay. Thanks. We will surely comment many times in our IR communications. Now the overall plan has been approved, which we start executing. And why we actually -- the transformation, as I have said many times in those meetings, where I've been meeting investors, it has started already. So for instance, in June, we made investment decision into liquefied waste plastics upgraded facility, FID value EUR 111 million. And during this year earlier, we said that we're entering the engineering phase, looking into the first electrolyzer, so being able to produce green hydrogen also at Porvoo. So not yet an FID, but engineering phase. Well regarding the overall program, if I look into the next 2 years, we have, of course -- we have a full focus, of course. We have the Martinez now with Phase III and big hopes for that. We have the -- of course, the Rotterdam large-scale investments in construction phase. So we have quite much already in the pipeline, but -- so my main point is that for the majority of this road map will be starting after a couple of years. It will start, of course, already now with certain engineering phases, et cetera. But when it comes to capital outlays, it will be more towards the mid or more towards mid late and late end of this decade and early part of next decade. And of course, then we have an opportunity to accelerate or do adjustments on the time line as we move forward depending on the markets. Mostly, I want to underline what I already said on the optionality side. So we have really worked hard to find a program, which we feel will really add value from the optionality point of view and where we can get a great advantage for the kit that we already have at Porvoo in many ways. So I'm very happy with the overall outcome, and I think it's really, I'd say value over volume type of a program that has been now outlined for the transformation.

Great. Any details on what -- you talked about optionality of these products slate, any specific details on what that product slate is? I recognize there is optionality, but in terms of SAF and Renewable Products, what's the maximum it could go? Any details on that?

Yes. I don't want to go into that at this stage because we will have the FIDs done later. But I can assure that there is a big optionality in our plans. So like always, and what we have already been constructing both in Singapore and in Rotterdam, we are building our plans so we can maneuver between the products. So it costs also slightly more, but then we have the optionality. And how we can really continue to get the value out of the different types of feedstocks? So of course, pretreatment has big elements here, the feedstock optionality. And going into the new product area to overall diversify our portfolio, entering to new customer segments are very important. Of course, having said that, SAF is very high on the agenda also in the form of transformation as well.

Sure. And one final question on the major turnaround activity. So we're surprised to see, to be honest, over a 3-year cycle. I'm just wondering what the CapEx was associated with this turnaround activity? And should we expect those kind of CapEx every 3 years now as opposed to.....

Yes, I'm just discussing with Anssi. I think we have decided to comment on the CapEx only in February for the overall turnaround.

Thank you, Sasi. Then we have Pablo.

Yes. Just 2 quick ones on my side. One, the first one is on whether you can probably share any thoughts for cash flow development in Q4? I think we saw already accumulated H1 and 9 months results, a lot of improvement on the working capital versus last year, which I think that was the plan. If anything you can share as well if that trend has been maintained during Q4, at least from what you have seen in the last months? And the second one will be, if you can also advance a little bit on the -- on the term sales for next year. You also hinted after Q3 that you were already initiating the process for next year with a successful outcome. And I wonder whether if there could be something that you can be set on that front? Or if we need to wait until full-year results, I wan to understand?

Yes. Thank you, Pablo, for excellent questions. First on the free cash flow and net working capital. I'm so far, very satisfied on our progress on that side. Actually, we started already a bit more than a year ago a program looking very granularly into the different turn rates for all the components in our working capital, whereas DSO, DPO, DIO, total turn rate and having actions for all those parts, and we have followed that since. And I think we are getting results. So I'm happy. I have positive hopes on that side. I think it has -- of course, in the end, it's all -- it's mainly also the -- having said that, the inventory values, which have a big impact, particularly in the net working capital. So how those work out precisely at the end of the quarter, but so far, all good. Then on the term sales, also positive. So we have progressed forward well. We still have some contracts to finalize, they're probably at the very end of this year or early part of this year. But in significance, no huge surprises on that. So maybe one comment, though, is that we may be placing a bit more. It seems that our volumes next year probably to the U.S. market than we have seen a bit more than historically. So the U.S. market at least is very much growing. Then on the other hand, for SAF, on the other hand, we have been not wishing to term also that much from a tactical reasons. We think it's also good to have volumes available for the spot market. And also because we are not exactly knowing yet when -- how much we'll be producing. We have said, of course, between 500 kilotons to 1 million tons, so for that reason as well. But overall, progressing according to plan.

Thanks, Pablo. I think we have Henry. Please go ahead. I think you're mute, Henry. Wait a second. Okay, do we have another question on the line? I think Kate, you're there, great. Please go ahead.

Can you hear me okay?

Great.

Yes. Great. Could you just give a bit of color on hedging of the RINs going into 2024? Have you actually done any hedging related to the kind of first quarter RINs? Then could you just clarify also what you said the dollar per ton impact was on the change in RINs 3Q to 4Q? And finally, on the Martinez Refinery, you mentioned 2 out of the 3 lines are running. Is the pretreatment capacity online because these are obviously kind of margin dilutive Martinez without that? Okay.

Thank you, Kate, for excellent questions. So we'll be in our rough terms, maybe about 20% hedged still in the first quarter for our RINs, RIN D4, that's an approximate figure. Then I think I mentioned earlier, this is, of course, depending on how you compare, I said that the average between the first and the third quarter, if you take $1.50 per gallon compared to $0.85 per gallon, where we're today, just in the fuel fourth quarter that overall makes a difference of about -- even up to USD 380 per ton. But of course, that -- how you compare that and the prices change all the time. Then when it comes to the Martinez. So what was the question on? On the pretreatment. Yes. Yes. We have been operating the pretreatment. Actually, we did operate them for 2 months already in the early autumn or late summer, then we had a -- just a plant shutdown to change the catalyst and to prepare for the Phase III ramp-ups in October. And then we had this accident in one of the lines and 2 -- in 2 lines, we're operating currently. This is the portfolio -- pretreatment facilities, they're operational, yes.

Okay. Thank you, Kate. So I think we don't have any questions on the line. Sasi, do you still have a question or.....

Anssi, can I ask the question. Sorry, I was.... maybe forget to raise my hand. Sorry, apologies for that. Just a -- just to clarify this $380 per ton, you talked about.

One price component, we must remember.

Yes. That is what -- yes. Just trying to understand that is the -- basically the difference between what you -- what's your realized RIN -- hedged RIN price in Q4 versus what is the current spot level that you're seeing for -- going to......

We're not taking our hedges anyhow into account. Just looking at the open market, if we'll not have any hedges in between. I mean it has been about $300, the difference now. I said a bit higher figure. It depends on which average you take. But it's good to know that it's quite a meaningful component, that's how -- why I wanted to highlight that. And then I highlighted also on the positive side that for instance, there has been a quite very clear drop as an example, in the feedstock prices. I'd like to -- although no questions were asked, but I'd like to highlight 2 regulatory issues very shortly. So you may have noticed that these CARBS -- CARB has come up with some next steps in their proposals to introduce higher CI reduction targets just as of yesterday. And this is not the final decision, there are still hearings, but it could now have a possibility to take effect by the end of the first quarter of next year. And would this be as in the proposal that was out, I think, yesterday in California, this is, by and large, the same as was in the SRIA, in the Standard Regulatory Impact Assessment published earlier in the autumn. So the first and foremost and most important is that, that the CI reduction goal to be uptick to 30% by 2030. And the goal is currently in their plan, 20% in the CI reduction. So a 10 percentage points improvement or 50% higher. That's a major increase, and there would also be a -- if this is approved and finally a onetime 5% step up or step down in the CI in 2025. And this is meant to address the current large LCFS credit bank and low credit values. And there also in the proposal, there is this automatic acceleration mechanism starting in 2027, which would mean that there is an automatic mechanism that you can reach higher targets earlier depending on how the earlier targets have been met. And also, there is an element for SAF introduced in the proposal, which is also -- would be a major precedent in the U.S. So we think of that very positively first. And then a few months ago, there were also some issues from Netherlands. That's why Netherlands, we were waiting for an update -- upgrade in the mandate. And on a positive side, the government has so far confirmed the decision to reduce the so-called multiplier in marine from 0.8 to 0.4 and this comes effective from 1st of January next year. But we're still waiting for the decision on the energy for transport decree, which would increase the annual obligation for -- in rates to the greenhouse gas reduction from 19.9% or that's the mandate level up to 28.4%. It's still subject to the advisory procedure at the council of the state. So we're waiting for that. We don't know the outcome, but if it would come into force, it would be also from the 1st of January. Or if it comes later in the early part of January or somewhere, it could be implemented retroactively. Of course, we know that there has been also a parliament election in Netherlands. So -- but now the current parliament is still dealing with this or the new parliament dealing with trade, so -- although there is no new government in place. So I think those were 2 updates I wanted to provide on the regulatory side.

Okay. And there are new questions. So let's go to Jason. Do you have a question? Please go ahead.

Yes. I just wanted to confirm firstly on Singapore that you will have SAF volumes out of their contributing to 4Q results. It sounded like that was the case, but I just wanted to confirm. And then secondly, you discussed some weakness in feedstock prices. I was just wondering what you see driving that? I suppose with more capacity coming online, you would have expected feed prices to firm, but that hasn't happened. So just some commentary on why feed prices have weakened would be helpful.

Yes. Thanks, Jason. Firstly, on the Singapore, so we're not producing SAF, but we have said earlier, we will first fulfill the inventories with our global customer base and some of the airports. So the sales we foresee to start in the second quarter of next year. That's important to note here. And then on the feedstock side. So to me, it's a reflection of some of the lower, you could say, market price components as RIN as an example. So it has also had an effect on the main cost side, which is the feedstock cost side. So it seems to -- that's my take of the market at this stage.

[Operator Instructions] But now we will take Artem's question first because he has been waiting there. Artem, please go ahead.

Yes. Actually, if I may start with production capacity and what's happening there. So the first one is relating to Singapore. Do you have any better view in terms of turnaround to be done next year? So when it could be happening after which you would be able to reach 100% utilization at the facility? And the second one is related to Martinez. As you mentioned, 1 out of 3 lines is not in operation right now. Are those lines equal in terms of production capacity or are there some bigger difference?

Thank you, Artem, for the question. So first of all, turnaround, we haven't yet decided. We -- but it is most likely there will be -- it will be either at the regular planned maintenance period when we do the work so that we could reach the 100% or we install a shorter, separate shutdown to do that. So that's still a bit open. But anyway, as we have communicated during next year, and it's definitely our target and all the plans to reach that. And then for Martinez, we haven't -- we have been here also communicating with our JV partner, what to disclose. So I don't have a -- I cannot disclose exactly how we're operating. But I can say that the 2 lines are operating there. You can -- maybe possibly, I think in due course, we will come more back on the volume side.

And then maybe as a final one from my end is relating to this RIN situation, lowering prices, but at the same time, also lower feedstock prices, what we are seeing right now. Could you maybe comment on balance? Do you see that U.S. margins have been under pressure if it takes these several elements into consideration of what is the net picture there?

Well, you could to a certain extent, say, yes. But on the other hand, like I alluded to also the -- very much the feedstock prices in the U.S. have also been on a lower level and difficult to see how the market will then balance out. Going into next year, we have various projections on that. But in all circumstances, like I went through, I think our competitive advantages with the global optimization are highly important. So we have on -- in our back pocket opportunities, and we're creating capabilities how to maneuver. But of course, overall, if the RIN D4 price stays longer on a lower level, it could have various impacts. It could, of course, mean that some of the new supply that has been planned to start up will -- would not be starting or the equivalent. We will see in due course what the impacts might be.

Thank you, Artem. [Operator Instructions] Or....

It's Paul Redman from BNP Paribas. Can you guys hear me?

Very well. Thank you.

I had a quick question, about 2 actually. One was just back on the D4 RIN. Any guidance on kind of what your average hedge on RINs has been this year because it's quite a big number, $380 per ton impact from $150 down to $85, but that's going to give me directionally where you were on average for this year, and that would kind of help me to see the impact that I might translate into next year? And then secondly, there's a few things you've mentioned on the call, which are more sales into U.S., lower RIN prices, partly offset by maybe lower U.S. or feedstock price in general. What your guidance in the past has been -- you look back at the past and that should give you an idea of where we should be in the future, where that's put consensus is close to $750. Are you still comfortable with that kind of $700 to $800 range for next year?

Yes. Thanks for excellent questions. And firstly on that -- unfortunately, I cannot go deeper into the hedging levels. I think that's too much on the operating. But then to your overall question, of course, we're fully 100% know the average. I think it's about $750 for the comparable sales margin of analysts for next year. Let me just elaborate next year a little bit how I see it today. So of course, there are -- what I went through, you could say there might be at the moment looking just to the market today some headwinds. And I think the only headwind where you -- from a market point of view, which is clearly lower, is the RIN D4 price. I think the LCFS price in California has already earlier been lower and now will hopefully with the new improved target for CI reduction, we know there could be a potential for that to improve, which remains to be seen. It's fair to say also the EU market is currently somewhat softer from the pricing picture and then also, of course, for us, we have very big story for us, this is the upscaling of our SAF next year. In the first quarter, we won't have yet SAF that much available for -- or basically no new volumes. So second quarter onwards, I think it has a lot of improvement potential. Then on the positive side, on the tailwinds, I think we're making all the time progress when it comes to our competitive advantages, optimization capabilities. Feedstock prices, I mentioned, are also currently clearly lower. And we're operating globally to -- we can utilize also lower grades. And like we have in Singapore new -- wholly new pretreatment facilities with new capabilities and so on. So I would say that there are both headwinds and tailwinds. But maybe overall, currently, the headwinds are somewhat stronger than the tailwinds. And particularly, we referenced at the beginning of the year before we're ramping up our soft sales. But overall, there -- we foresee the markets to grow and where we stand with Neste with our strategies in a strong position still. I think that's how I see it.

Just one other question just because just a little bit more clarity. So are you saying that the headwinds are stronger than the tailwind at the moment. But SAF is a positive picture. It's really the story of SAF for next year on margins. If you could kind of look back at the....

Not only -- not to frighten you. I don't want to give that picture either. Of course, we're extremely -- if I look into European market, there are a lot of opportunities I enlighted to the with the Netherlands, and we're very focused and we're very careful. We're very good in optimizing on those sort of when it comes, for instance, to NX9A, those different raw materials that different specs there, optimizing across the European market. That's very much so. When I say that we might be a little bit more of renewable, I actually highlighted more to renewable diesel proportionally because there, the market next year is growing somewhat more in the U.S., and we will have also some more capacities to sell compared to this year, next year. Then for SAF, I think it's an overall optimization across globally. And also, if I look into our strategy for next year, we're looking, of course, to increase our scope in the renewable polymers and chemicals area. We're looking to increase our scoping in all the voluntary segments for renewable diesel, whether it's mining industry or whether it's different sectors. So I think we have, overall, what I -- of course, we've been following internally our term sales planning. And I mean we're really looking to extend our customer portfolio overall when I -- when -- if I look at it from a global perspective.

Thanks, Paul. I think we have Matthew next. Please go ahead.

I have 2 questions here. One, so you mentioned the declining feedstock environment in Q4. I think you mentioned that China UCO down 10%. U.S. UCO down 25%. Is that purely on a spot basis? Or are you looking at prices from October 1 to December 31 and then versus Q3 for that calculation? And if so, do we need to incorporate any sort of feedstock lag when we think about modeling out margins for your RP segment? And then the second question, just to clarify, so this $380 a ton RIN impact, is that just on your 45% North America exposure? Or does that impact also bleed into your Europe exposure as well?

Only for the America exposure, definitely, it relates to. And on the feedstocks, I think there can be a minor lag, but we can take rather quickly. We have a quite good turn rate in our feedstock inventories overall. So it comes rather quickly through also the lower cost base. So that's the case. And by the way, then I think I alluded a little bit to the diesel price. So maybe it's good to know that just after the -- how quick the market changes can be. So after there were some challenges with the Suez Canal, as I mentioned, I think the crude price, Brent went up like $5 a barrel, just seemingly mainly because of that. And the diesel price went up, I think, from $7.30 to $7.80, so about 50. And that was more or less after we checked some of the notes because we've been also quite busy here. So it just tell us about the volatility of the markets, how minor single incidents can have an impact. By the way, talking about the Suez, I think it's positive also for us from that standpoint. So, of course, we're shipping renewable diesel, for instance, straight from Singapore down to the West Coast, so we don't need to use Suez, so neither also very limitedly for our feedstock supply. So we're not sort of affected by that. It could be that some competition is more effective.

Thank you, Matthew. Any other questions?

It's Henry Tarr here from Berenberg. Can you hear me?

Yes. Yes, we can.

Okay. It's great. Sorry to jumping on late. But just a question, I think you said in 2024, it may be -- volumes maybe a little bit more skewed than historically to the U.S. Is that mainly a function just of the ramp-up of Martinez and then some of the -- some extra Singapore volumes going into the U.S.? Is it kind of the new facilities? Or is it a conscious choice to shift volumes that were in Europe into the U.S.?

No, I think it's a very good specification question and maybe I -- it's immediately when you say something, how it's interpreted. So that's right. So I'm talking -- we're not -- currently, we'll be selling less into Europe, but we have, of course, more volumes to sell and of the increase in the volumes. So it's particularly the impact of Martinez with larger volumes next year. And a little bit more from the portion of the extension of the volumes, as we also have quite robust demand growth expected in the U.S. market. In the U.S. market, by the way, we've been able to well penetrate also the Western -- sorry, the Eastern Coast. So it's been kind of functioning quite well for us from several perspectives. So that was my -- I want to maybe clarify that. So it's not to say that we would be selling less on the total volumes to Europe, but it's just that proportionally if we give one figure out of our total, you might -- we might see a bit more out of the total in U.S. And by the way, there has already been in the third quarter, an uptick for the U.S. actually. So I'm comparing to the old, I think we have been more like 1/3 to the U.S., 2/3 to Europe mainly, so they could be slightly more from their end. That was the only meaning with that comment and mainly because of the Martinez volumes, yes.

Okay. Great. So it's not that you've struggled to replace the volumes that you were selling into Sweden?

Well, we have said -- on that side, we have said very openly that we're going to find where we get the best margins where to direct those volumes. So of course, we're looking all across our network. It's a multitude of venues where we're now redirecting those volumes.

Okay. And just 1 more question for me then is just on SAF and demand for SAFs in '24. Is -- where is the demand coming from in '24? Because I guess most of the mandates will kick in, in 2025. Is that right in Europe? Is it just kind of airlines offering voluntary carbon reduction and then some airlines wanting to test volumes ahead of potential mandates? Is that kind of the main driver?

You're correct there. So at our CMD, we outlined our projection after the mandates kick in 2025, that the demand would be something around like 4 million tons for SAF. And if we're in this year '23, clearly less than 1 million tons. So the airlines, the airports, they are preparing also for the mandate that arriving then in 2025. And they have introduced throughout the spectrum these voluntary opt-in programs. So it is correct. It's coming from the voluntary opt-in programs of the airlines as well as for the airports, who have progressive step and also preparing themselves for the mandate uptick then in 2025.

Anssi, can I ask 2 questions please. It's Yuriy Kukhtanych from Millennium.

Yuriy. Please go ahea.

Just question about the inventories on the SAF side that you're building in Singapore. These inventories, will you carry those inventories on your balance sheet that you're building for your clients? And those inventories will reflect the blend of SAF or just pure SAF fuel that you're producing? Or you will have to buy jet fuel blended and carry the total cost of jet fuel and SAF blend on your books, on your balance sheet until Q1?

Thank you, Yuriy, for an excellent question. So firstly, when we say inventories, we mean we have several inventories. We have all these customers globally where we're shipping. So it will be, Yuriy, not just in Singapore, but yes, they will be at our balance sheet. And in the first phase of this -- building up this demand I just described, which is mainly the voluntary opt-in and preparing for the mandates to come in, not everywhere, but here and there, we're also offering SAF as a blend to ordinary jet. And that, of course, for this period finds a bit more of our inventory. I must say that we have been very carefully evaluating when we've been willing to accept that. Then when we move into the more mandated base demand through our operating model, 100% in our plan is to really just be offering neat SAF. So hence, the inventory impact would be also less, that's our very clear target. And because of the voluntary -- sorry, of the inventory buildup, so we do forecast that we will see some inventory increase in this uptick phase, you could say first half of next year. And then once we're up so that we have the capacity to offer for our clients, we also start, let's say, in that area sort of a net working capital optimization period, which is an ordinary thing for us. And there are various ways how to try and get it out of your balance sheet, but that's also in the spectrum. But in the first phase, it's important to have the availability. So it will -- and then we start optimizing on the inventory side. Hopefully, this -- and then when we're not talking about such material increases in -- but it can be some millions of euros, but not billions of euros or anything in that magnitude. So during this -- on the inventory side to make sure that we have the availability through our networks. So I think the most important is that we progress with availability.

Sure. But just to clarify, in Q4, you will -- you're already buying jet fuel for the blend or not that you will be carrying on your inventories?

Very -- quite limited, if any, could be some, but very limited till yet. So it's more only for the first quarter, second quarter and not in every case, like I said. But here and there, a little bit. It depends on the customer requirements, competition -- where we -- it's not in our favor to -- overall strategy is not to provide blends. That's -- we have provided renewables diesel or mainly neat renewable diesel, which is much better in the net working capital optimization.

I think we have a question from Nash from Barclays.

It's Naisheng Cui from Barclays. Can you hear me?

Yes, please.

Perfect. I just want to ask about the term sales in 2024. I think during the Q3 earnings call, you mentioned Neste has made about 30% to 40% term sales for 2024, and you were in the progress of negotiating more with your customers. I just wonder if we can get an update from that, please?

Thank you, Nash for an excellent question. I don't have an exact figure now to tell. But as I said, we progressed well. And in due course, we will tell the final outcome as a figure.

And just wonder between then and now, have you guys had more term sales? And I know you're talking about 70% to 80%, right?

Yes. In history, by tradition, we've been roughly targeting about 75%. That's what we communicated. I said -- I think earlier I said that in the SAF part, we will probably a bit less -- there can be always some variation. So we don't have an exact fixed target. So -- but in due course, latest in the February earnings call, we can provide you a final update on that.

Thank you, Nash. Then I think we have a question from Henri from UBS. Are you able to open your mic, Henri? And if not I think we have Raphael. Oh, Henri. Please go ahead.

Can you hear me? Great. Apologies for the issues earlier. Just a couple of quick ones, please, on the quarter. The first one on Sweden. I was wondering if you've seen already an impact on your sales volumes in the country from the drop in the mandate from next year, that's actually going to be just in the first quarter? And secondly, just on fixed cost for the quarter? Anything to be aware of, especially given the fire in the Martinez. Could we see higher fixed cost this quarter?

On Sweden, nothing yet, that material as to point out. So I think it's been a preparedness already a little bit earlier and nothing as a specific feature impacting our fourth quarter volumes. Then to the fixed cost, I think I want to give a positive viewpoint there. So like I went through earlier, so we have this overall more simplified organized operating model structure and we've been also going through our fixed cost base, looking for both short-term and longer-term savings. So I think that we will be there trending clearly towards lower growth going forward, and we will see a fixed cost efficiency, for instance, if you look at it and measure against the, for instance, renewable products sales volume as an example, or just ordinary sales volumes or turnover, an improvement there. So that's very much in our radar. And there are multiple elements how we're driving that. Then when it comes to Martinez, of course, in due course, there might be some more OpEx because of that, but we all know for sure then later what that is, but not in my knowledge have been anything hugely material at least. That's not what information I do have.

Thanks, Henri. And then we will have time for the final question by Raphael. Raphael, please go ahead.

Can you hear me?

Yes, Raphael, we can.

Yes. Great. So 2 quick questions. First, maybe you talked about starting to sell more SAF in Q2 next year. Is it fair to assume that there are more offtake agreements to be signed in 1Q next year? And on this topic, can you maybe remind us of the quantity of SAF that you have already committed? This is my first question. And the second one is about this European investigation into the surge in Chinese biodiesel coming into Europe. Can you maybe share your thoughts on what it could lead to and what could be the impact in terms of your feedstock access?

Yes. Thank you, Raphael, for excellent questions again. So, first on the SAF, what we -- a figure that we have provided our range is SAF sales next year 2024, between 500 kilotons to 1 million tons. And there is no further update at this stage on that. Then it comes to the commitments, I mean, that figure, of course or that range embodies certain commitments or term sales as well as spot sales. I don't -- we don't foresee we should have a problem in selling our SAF volumes next year. So nothing -- not just hint or thoughts. Nothing of that sort has been in our discussions. Then for the Chinese biodiesel. So basically, firstly, Neste sees it -- welcomes the careful checkup when it comes to checking the origin or the sustainability origin in the whole supply chain when it comes to the vendors. And we -- it, of course, sort of underlines our operating model because we have, for a long time, put a huge effort into doing those checks and certificates, et cetera. So I think what it has as an impact, we haven't seen any more surge of any Chinese-based biodiesel. On the other hand, it has meant also for all providers that you must have all certificates very clear to be able to show what is the source of your feedstock, but that sort of ordinary course of business for Neste. So -- and there is no change at this moment that we would not be able to ship Chinese-based diesel residues as long as you know, we have the ordinary tracking of our vendors and all the documents and origins in good shape. So thank you, by the way, firstly, on all the excellent questions. And I would like to close by, first, I want to thank all you, equity analysts out there. So for you excellent analyst reports produced during this year and all your coverages related to Neste, really warm thank you. And simultaneously, I want to thank all our equity investors out there for the inspiring strategic discussions we have had during the past year. And thank you also for your participation in this call. And finally, wishing you all a very nice approaching Christmas period. Stay safe.