Newmont Corporation (NEM) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and welcome to Newmont's 2021 Investor Update Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Eric Colby, Vice President of Investor Relations and Global Communications. Please go ahead.

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to Newmont's 2020 investor update. Joining us on the call today are Tom Palmer, President and Chief Executive Officer; Rob Atkinson, Chief Operating Officer; and Nancy Buese, Chief Financial Officer. They will be available to answer questions at the end of the call along with other members of our executive team. Please take a moment to review the cautionary statement on Slide 2 and refer to our SEC filings, which can be found on our website. I'll turn it over to Tom on Slide 3.

Thanks, Eric. Good morning, and thank you all for joining our call. As we near the end of an unprecedented year, we have been reflecting on the challenges we have experienced and the lessons we have learned. Although it was a year like no other, Newmont has continued to build on a strong foundation as the world's leading gold company. As a mining industry, we have risen to the challenges brought on by the pandemic and put what is most important first, the safety and well-being of our people. As one of the leaders in our industry, I am proud of Newmont's response and encourage my peers to continue to stay vigilant in our fight against this terrible virus. Turning to Slide 4 and Newmont's industry leading portfolio. Among our 12 operating mines and 2 joint ventures, we now have 9 world-class assets with the inclusion of Yanacocha Sulfides in our outlook, and we are growing our presence in Ghana with the development of Ahafo North. We expect to bring both of these projects to full fund decisions in 2021. Underpinning our asset base are the largest gold reserves in the industry, with 96 million ounces of gold, and a further 63 million gold equivalent ounces from copper, silver, zinc and lead. Importantly, almost 90% of our reserves are in the Americas and Australia. We also offer substantial future upside through our resource base, with nearly 75 million ounces of measured and indicated gold resources. Turning to our long-term production profile on Slide 5. Consistent with our prior outlook, our managed portfolio and 2 joint ventures will produce more than 6 million ounces of gold per year through until at least 2030, with an improving cost profile. As you can see here, our portfolio delivered steady gold production over the next decade, balanced across each of our 4 regions. This profile is further enhanced by the production of more than 1 million gold equivalent ounces from silver, lead and zinc at Peñasquito and copper at Boddington and Yanacocha. Combined, we will deliver nearly 8 million gold equivalent ounces per year for the next decade, the most of any company in our industry. Turning to Slide 6. 2020 has been a year of uncertainty for everyone, but Newmont has much to be proud of this year. First and foremost, our focus has been on protecting the health and well-being of our workforce and local communities. Although the world is still grappling with the pandemic, we remain disciplined in the application of our wide-ranging controls and safety protocols. We continue to be recognized for our superior ESG performance. Having achieved gender parity in our Board and announcing industry-leading climate change targets with a goal to be carbon neutral by 2050. Supported by a proven operating model and a continuous improvement culture, our Full Potential program has now delivered more than $3 billion in sustainable cost and productivity improvements across our portfolio since 2014. We generated over $2.3 billion in free cash flow through the third quarter, more than 95% of which directly benefit Newmont's shareholders. By maintaining our discipline across the price cycle, we continue to capitalize on our superior leverage to higher gold prices and deliver record financial performance. Earlier in the year, we completed the sale of KCGM, Red Lake and our interest in Continental Gold, generating total cash proceeds of $1.4 billion. And we continue to demonstrate our commitment to leading shareholder returns, raising our dividend twice during the year and announcing a dividend framework in October that provides returns above our sustainable base dividend in a stable and predictable manner. Through dividends and share buybacks, Newmont remains on track to deliver more than $2.7 billion to shareholders in 2019 and '20. Turning to Slide 7 to provide some context on our outlook. At Newmont, we continue to develop our plans based on conservative assumptions. We utilized a $1,200 gold price to calculate our reserves and develop our mine plans. And our productivity assumptions are based on previous best demonstrated performance. Our 5-year outlook shows increasing production and improving costs with the inclusion of a Ahafo North and Yanacocha Sulfides. We have a lot to be excited about in 2021 with Musselwhite fully operational after commissioning the new conveyor and materials handling system last month. And full potential improvements across our portfolio are expected to deliver more than $300 million of value in 2021. Perhaps most importantly, we fundamentally understand the human contribution to climate change and have committed to directing $500 million towards climate initiatives over the next 5 years. Supporting the new targets we have set. Turning to Slide 8. At Newmont, our purpose is to create value and improve lives through sustainable and responsible mining. Through our response to the pandemic, our purpose has guided every decision we made and continue to make. I am incredibly proud of how our teams around the world have responded and the sacrifices people have made and continue to make to support our business and the communities in which we live and work. They have set a standard for leadership in our industry. Looking at just one example of this work. In Mexico, our team there established infrastructure early on that is keeping our employees and surrounding communities safe. Our community response included providing thousands of cleaning kits to health clinics and families, tens of thousands of reusable masks and thousands of books for distance learning. And across 18 test sites we have established throughout Mexico, we have performed over 50,000 COVID tests; and as a consequence, managed the risk of a significant outbreak. We test out people when they arrive on-site as well as when they depart so they can return to their families and communities safely. Turning to Slide 9, and our approach to climate change. We continue to meet our public sustainability targets to source from local suppliers, hire within the communities in our operations, respond to community complaints in a timely manner, achieve our previously set emission and water reduction targets and complete planned reclamation activities. These commitments are part of the fabric of Newmont and essential to our license to operate. As we announced last month, we have raised the bar again, and set targets to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions 30% by 2030, with the ultimate goal of achieving net 0 carbon emissions by 2050. We have also committed to work collaboratively with our business partners to help reduce their emissions by 15% by 2030 and achieved the greatest mutual environmental benefit. Newmont will continue to strive to be a leader in transparent ESG reporting, and we plan to publish our inaugural climate strategy report in 2021, aligned with the task force for climate-related disclosures. Turning to Slide 10. At Newmont, we take our climate change commitment seriously and make them because our relationship with the planet is absolute. We want a world that is not just sustainable, but thriving for generations to come. As a demonstration of that commitment, we will direct $500 million towards climate change initiatives over the next 5 years. These funds will be focused on investment in renewable energy and micro grid energy storage projects as well as piloting new technologies. To further support this commitment, we are implementing a new energy and climate investment standard to drive energy efficiency improvements, formalize the incorporation of micro grid technologies, and integrate energy metrics into our process control systems. Moving now to our 5-year outlook on Slide 11. Over the next 5 years, we will steadily improve our attributable gold production to nearly 7 million ounces per year, underpinned by our foundation of 9 world-class assets. Our production profile has been enhanced with the investment in the Ahafo North and Yanacocha Sulfides, both of which are slated for approval in 2021. Our all-in sustaining costs improved in 2021 and will further improve to between $800 to $900 per ounce by 2024; as we deliver the benefits from investments in both the layback and autonomous haulage at Boddington, the current expansion of Tanami, sub-level shrinkage underground mining at Ahafo, a new mine at Ahafo North, the Yanacocha Sulfides project and the delivery of $500 million in synergies from the Goldcorp acquisition, significantly exceeding our original commitment of $365 million. This improvement is further supported by sustainable full potential improvements across our portfolio of 12 managed operations. Supporting our 5-year production profile is an annual investment of $1 billion in sustaining capital and an average of $600 million to $800 million in attributable development capital per year. Turning to Slide 12. Our Full Potential program has delivered more than $3 billion in value since 2014. It is a program I have been leading over the last 7 years. And I am very proud of what we have achieved. Full Potential is an improvement program that is unsurpassed in our industry in terms of its sustainability and the value it has delivered. Its success goes to the very heart of our operating model and culture at Newmont. In 2021, we expect to deliver a further $300 million of value from Full Potential. Our focus for delivery next year includes advancing our technology initiatives, the rapid replication of best practices across our operations and continuing to leverage our operation support network, something that can only be achieved through our global operating model. As a great example of this in practice, our global supply chain team is integrated into our technical and operating teams to ensure that the goods and services we purchase generate the most value rather than being the cheapest. A focus on the total cost of ownership is fundamental to our procurement strategy, and has been, for a number of years. And in 2020, this approach resulted in the delivery of $180 million in value, significantly exceeding the $80 million target for this year. It is work like this that has us on track to achieve $500 million of synergies from the Goldcorp acquisition in 2021. Peñasquito is the major driver of this synergy value, and I'm pleased to report that in 2020 alone, we have delivered over $200 million in value from our full potential work at this world class operation. When we launched Full Potential at Peñasquito last year, our team quickly identified that a crushing circuit at the front end of the mill, the augmented feed circuit was the key bottleneck in the processing plant. And that by working this bottleneck, we could sustainably increase throughput and improve the quality of crushed ore provided to the Sag mills, lifting the overall performance of the processing plant. The value we have delivered this year at Peñasquito has been achieved by working this bottleneck with rigor and discipline. I am very proud of the team for what they've achieved this year despite all of the challenges that have been thrown at them in Mexico by the pandemic. We remain very focused on continuing to deliver value at Peñasquito as we work to further improve productivity and reduce costs. I expect that this will ultimately allow us to extend mine life through resource conversion, as we have demonstrated at our other very large open pit mine, Boddington, over the last 7 years. Turning to our project pipeline on Slide 13. Our organic project pipeline is unmatched in the gold industry and fits as one of the very best in the mining industry. In addition to Tanami 2, which is in execution, we have 2 key development projects slated for full funds approval in 2021: Ahafo North, which is the best unmined gold deposit in West Africa; and Yanacocha Sulfides, which has the potential to extend the Yanacocha's life out to at least 2040. The investment cost and benefits for these 2 projects have been included in our outlook for the first time this year, and Rob will provide some more details on both projects shortly. Looking deeper into our pipeline, there is significant value to unlock as we optimize and advance our longer-term projects and lay the pathway to steady production and cash flow well into the 2040s and beyond. We also have an organic exposure to both gold and copper in excellent jurisdictions through Norte Abierto, Nueva Unión and Galore Creek. If you assume that we will bring just one of these mega projects forward into our production profile at the back end of this decade, then at that time, Newmont's metal production would include around 15% to 20% copper. So by doing nothing more than the rigorous development of our organic project pipeline, we will have a natural exposure to a metal of growing importance for reducing carbon emissions and facilitating the ongoing transition to a new energy economy. Turning to Slide 14 for a look at our world-class global exploration portfolio. Exploration is a core competency at Newmont and another area we manage on a global basis in our operating model. The capability to grow our reserve and resource base across our global and balanced portfolio is a distinct competitive advantage. In 2021, we expect to invest around $250 million in exploration, with 80% of this dedicated to near-mine brownfield exploration, and the remaining 20% on greenfield work. The weighting of this spend reflects the significant exploration upside potential we see across our existing portfolio of operations. Our drilling programs this year have been impacted by the decisions we took to idle exploration equipment in order to keep our people safe and protect them from the virus. Consequently, we expect to deliver approximately 60% to 70% of our targeted reserve replacement dropped by the drill bit this year. However, our target which is to replace, on average, 2/3 of depletion by the drill bit remains firmly in place and is supported by this exploration investment. It is also worth noting that our exploration investment builds on the largest gold reserves in our industry at 96 million ounces. Turning to Slide 15 for a look at a few of our near-mine exploration opportunities. At Peñasquito, we are focused on applying our proprietary exploration technology and expertise to a large resource-base and very prospective land package, one that has the potential to significantly extend mine life. In South America, we remain excited about the upside potential at Cerro Negro, where we have more than doubled our landholdings over the last year, and now have access to over 100 known prospects. At Tanami in Australia, our exploration work continues to identify highly prospective deposits with the potential to both extend mine life and increase production at this world-class asset. The Oberon deposit is the most prospective of these, and we look forward to sharing more with you on this, next year. And last, but certainly not least, our exploration work in Africa is focused on transitioning our open pit operations at both Ahafo and Akyem to highly prospective underground deposits. We look forward to providing you more detail on these opportunities and others early in the new year as we report our updated reserves and resources. With that, I'll turn it over to Rob to discuss our regional level guidance on Slide 16.

Thanks very much, Tom. Turning to Slide 17. We have the strongest and most sustainable portfolio in the gold industry, and we remain focused on growing margins by really getting back to basics and applying operating, technical and exploration discipline each and every day. One of our biggest differentiators is a highly engaged and experienced workforce who are collaborating and sharing leading practices and lessons learned. And I'm very proud of our team and what they've safely accomplished while navigating an unprecedented year. And I can assure you, our focus to drive efficiency and productivity gains is more important and more acute than ever. And I'm very excited about the opportunity we have to deliver long-term value through our superior operating model and technical capabilities. So beginning regional overviews with Australia on Slide 18. Australia remains a cornerstone region of Newmont's portfolio, producing over 1.3 million ounces in 2021 and increasing to between 1.4 million to 1.5 million ounces in 2022 and beyond. We're also improving our costs, nearly 25% over the next 3 years, with all-in sustaining costs between $650 to $750 per ounce beginning in 2022 as our previous and current investments begin delivering significant value. Boddington's true potential improvements will sustain mill throughput of more than 40 million tonnes per annum and achieve consistently higher recoveries, increasing nearly 3% since 2017. Boddington will deliver higher gold and copper grades through 2023 as we ramp up our multiyear stripping campaign in the South Pit. The implementation of our autonomous haulage system is progressing well and is on track for completion in 2021. As the world's first open pit gold mine with an autonomous truck fleet, Boddington will improve productivity by increasing mining rates with less equipment and extend mine life by 2 years. And importantly, we will also improve safety by reducing employee exposure to potential hazards. We're excited about getting the system up and running and very much see further upside potential in the future as we assess replication opportunities at other Newmont operations and projects. At Tanami, we're set to maintain production in excess of 500,000 ounces per year through 2022 as our focus on improvements to shift and roster changes will deliver higher efficiencies and increase overall operating time. At the end of 2023 or early '24, Tanami should reach commercial production on its second expansion, and will deliver 550,000 to 600,000 ounces per year at all-in sustaining costs of $600 to $700 per ounce. And turning to Slide 19 for more on this world-class asset. Our Tanami operation has produced over 10 million ounces over the last 35 years and is a prime example of how our operating and technical discipline expanded margins and unlocked significant value from this asset. In fact, over a 10-year period through 2023, we're on track to deliver a 45% improvement in costs with an 80% production improvement. It's because of the focus on back to basics mining practices that earned Tanami the right to additional capital investment. In 2017, we successfully delivered the first expansion project. And in early 2019, we completed the power project, both of which have established a solid foundation for us to continue growing this world-class asset. Our current investment in the second expansion has the potential to extend the mine life beyond 2040. This expansion will deliver significant value through the development of a 1.6 kilometer deep production shaft and supporting infrastructure and increase production by around 150,000 to 200,000 ounces per year while reducing operating costs by approximately 10%. While the COVID pandemic has posed challenges, changes and delays for the project, I have been very impressed by the team with our ingenuity and proactiveness to ensure that critical path work continue safely. Engineering and mine development work are over 50% complete. And about 22% of the overall project is now complete. In October, we achieved a significant milestone, completing the pilot hole, which provides us the ability and guidance we need to be able to develop the new shaft from both the top and the bottom. We're also well underway on construction of an accommodation village near the underground mine, which is scheduled to be completed by the end of this month and will increase shift productivity by reducing personal travel times. We are currently working through the bid process for the major contracts, which will be awarded in the new year. And this work will give us a better understanding of the full impact of the pandemic on project work at a very remote underground mine in Australia, where we do expect to have stringent border controls in place for at least the next 12 months. Looking further ahead, Tanami Expansion 2 will provide a platform for us to further explore a prolific mineral endowment in the district. Applying Newmont's extensive deep sensing soil geochemistry and the airborne gravity surveys across the district has delivered a robust portfolio of exciting targets such as the Oberon Open Pit and the [indiscernible] underground targets, which have the potential to extend mine life and grow production at Tanami. Turning to Slide 20 for a look at North America. In 2021, the North America region is expected to deliver over 1.7 million ounces of gold at all-in sustaining costs of $915 per ounce, benefiting from a full year of operations at Peñasquito, Eleonore and Musselwhite. In 2022 and '23, production will step down to 1.4 million to 1.5 million ounces and costs will trend higher as a result of mine sequencing. However, it is also important to note that over the 3-year period, we will benefit from Penasquito's significant silver, zinc and lead production, which is expected to add around 1 million gold equivalent ounces per year. So in total, the North American region will deliver between 2.3 million and 2.9 million gold equivalent ounces per year over this time period. Peñasquito is Mexico's largest gold mine, second largest silver mine, and one of the largest producers of zinc and lead. 2022 -- '21 will be a very meaningful year as we expect to realize a full year of full potential improvements at the mill and reach higher gold grade from the Peñasco Pit. In 2022, we will continue stripping the Chile Colorado Pit, which will deliver higher silver and lead production in 2023. We will also begin stripping the next phases of the Peñasco Pit, which will continue through 2023 and resulting in lower overall gold production levels. Moving to Musselwhite. I'm very pleased to say that just last week, we safely completed 2 key projects that are critical to ensuring Musselwhite's future production, the new conveyor and the materials handling system. We're currently ramping up to full production and expect to deliver around 200,000 ounces of gold in 2021. Annual production will then steadily increase with higher grade in 2022 and '23 as mining progresses to the North in the PQ deeps area. Full potential at Musselwhite is in its early phase, but already, the team has successfully identified 25 opportunities for prioritization during initial deployment. And we've begun fine-tuning our focus for 2021. A couple of the primary value drivers are the optimization of trucking and fleet performance, along with improving our development rates and our backfill practices. At Eleonore, the leadership team has made significant progress driving cultural change and instilling operational discipline with a focus on sustainable improvements through streamlining operational and maintenance practices. By taking a measured approach to fully integrate the updated geological and geotechnical models, we're delivering an optimized life of mine plan that is focused on margins and not volume. In 2021, we expect annual gold production to be approximately 270,000 ounces which is above our steady-state production of approximately 250,000 ounces as mining transitions to lower levels in the mine. We recently completed the lower mine materials handling system to streamline the transportation of ore to surface as we transition to higher production rates from lower Horizons 5 and 6 in 2022. Across the Porcupine where we're improving underground development rates with several new initiatives underway that will increase tonnes mined and processed in 2021. The site benefits from higher grades in the Borden underground and the Hollinger open pits in 2022 before Hollinger begins to ramp down in 2023. Porcupine is early in its gold potential journey, but our team will deliver sustainable value from initiatives to increase recoveries through the lead nitrate circuit and improved stope efficiencies. We're advancing work on the Pamour project, just 10 kilometers from the porcupine plant in the form of a lay back to the existing Pamour open pit. Developing Pamour is expected to extend mine life by more than a decade providing us more time to explore the Borden, Hoyle Pond and Dome ore bodies to find the next profitable extension of the Porcupine mine. And at our CC&V operation in Colorado, we are extending mine life beyond 2030 with the addition of a resource layback. And as a result, 2021 production will be slightly lower at 260,000 ounces, a stripping impact grade in reach tonnes placed. Now turning to our South America operations on Slide 21. In 2021, the South America region will produce around 1.1 million ounces at all-in sustaining costs of $1,035 per ounce. Included in the attributable production outlook is our 40% equity investment in the Pueblo Viejo joint venture, which will contribute 325,000 ounces in 2021. COVID has been especially impactful through the South America region, and we expect we will continue to see impacts well into 2021. As always, we will continue to prioritize the health and safety of our employees and our communities. At Cerro Negro, we expect a step-up in production next year as we return to more normal operations and reach higher grades, Full Potential also begins to deliver productivity improvements, including higher development rates, which we anticipate will deliver a 40% improvement in ore tonnes mined by 2024, as we move to mining 5 or 6 areas rather than just the 3 or 4 areas today. These improvements will deliver $50 million per annum in value when fully implemented. Near-term mine development is focused on the Mariana's District, where we anticipate steady production from Mariana Central and increasing production at Mariana Norte in 2021. Emilia begins ramping up in 2021 and will be a major contributor in 2022 and '23. We expect the Mariana's district expansion to begin adding to production in 2022 and fully ramping up in 2023 from San Marcos and Mariana's Norte Este and work to advance the prospective Eastern district expansion is continuing. At Merian, we'll deliver steady production and costs despite mining hard rock, which improves mine productivity and grade, but it is offset by lower mill throughput. The site is continuing to optimize mill performance in order to balance the impact of the harder rock, and we will enter the next phase of stripping in the Merian Pit in 2023. At Yanacocha, we are transitioning to leach only operations in 2021 as the oxide mill will begin ramping down ahead of the sulfides project. Our team is very much focused on improving leach pads, cycle times and maximizing recoveries, and we are very excited about the opportunity to expand both the oxide and sulfide potential at the Yanacocha. And turning to Slide 22 for more details on the sulfide project. As one of the largest and most productive gold mines in South America, Yanacocha has been a cornerstone asset to the Newmont portfolio for decades and within our existing footprint is an exceptional ore body, with the opportunity for incremental investments in the sulfides deposits and the ability to support a platform for developing district scale opportunities well into the future. With a multi-decade mine life that provides exposure to gold, copper and silver, the sulfide project generates profitable production, while beginning to concurrently reclaim areas of the oxide deposits and assess options to reduce long-term water treatment costs. The first phase of this project is focused on developing the Yanacocha Verde and Chaquicocha deposits, which will extend operations into the 2040s. In 2020, we progressed our definitive feasibility study work, which included advancing engineering, finalizing capital costs and schedule refining our geological models and upside cases and installing initial accommodation infrastructure. We expect to receive full funds approval and move the project into execution in the second half of 2021. And once approved, the project will have a 3-year development schedule with first gold anticipated in 2024 and commercial production in 2025. As a mega project, with total consolidated development capital of approximately $2 billion, we are working closely with our partners to ensure alignment as we move forward. And once completed, incremental average production will be about 500,000 gold equivalent ounces per year, at all-in sustaining costs of $700 to $800 per ounce for the first 5 full years from 2026 through to 2030. And looking ahead, the potential for second and third phases of the sulfides project could further extend mine life for decades with significant levels of gold and copper production. And turning to the Africa region on Slide 23. In 2021, our operations in Ghana will deliver 915,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of $900 per ounce. Akyem is positioned to deliver higher production and improve costs next year as the site benefits from higher grade ahead of a new layback, which will begin stripping in 2022. Inclusion of this layback will extend the open pit mine life by an additional 4 years to 2027 and will also provide us the future optionality as we continue to evaluate underground and additional open pit growth opportunities at the site. Full potential at the Akyem continues to deliver value with the team focused on improving mill productivity through advanced process control. With a direct connection to our operation support network in Perth, the team benefit from the sharing of world-class technical expertise, real-time monitoring and coaching, and procedure adjustments to improve throughput and recovery. At Ahafo, our investments have built a world-class gold mine capable of delivering over 500,000 ounces of annual production with improving costs. Next year, we'll reach higher grades in the Subika open pit as we continue to develop Subika underground that will deliver higher grades in 2022. In 2019, we successfully delivered the Ahafo mill expansion, which increased mill capacity by more than 50%. The increased mill capacity provided us the ability to change our mining method at Subika underground, to mitigate rock stress, transitioning from long-haul open stoping to a sublevel shrinkage mining method. The change allows us to safely increase tonnage from the underground, improve mining costs and capture higher efficiencies. Full production from the Subika underground will occur in mid '22 with the first production starting in mid-2021. In 2022 and '23, Ahafo will support the Africa region, achieving annual production of between 1 million to 1.2 million ounces. Ahafo North begins to ramp-up in '23 contributing to the higher production and improving unit costs. The Ahafo District also provides significant potential, which includes underground opportunities at Awonsu, Apensu and Subika, along with the highly prospective Ahafo North project. Similar to Tanami in Australia, the ability for Newmont to expand in this prolific region is underpinned by our disciplined investment decisions that have created a solid platform for our future. So turning to Slide 24 for more on Ahafo North. Ahafo North is located 30 kilometers north of our existing Ahafo operations and is the best unmined gold deposit in West Africa. This open pit operation is centered on 9 deposits along a 14-kilometer strike length and contains 3.5 million ounces of reserves and 1 million ounces of resources. During 2020, we've continued to advance the permitting process with the Ghana EPA, and the team is very focused on engineering and design work as well as the construction, procurement and community planning. As Tom mentioned, we remain firmly on track for a full funds decision in 2021 with a 3-year development period thereafter. When approved, our plans include building a stand-alone mill to produce an incremental 250,000 ounces per year over a 13-year mine life for an investment of approximately $700 million to $800 million. Over the first full 5 years through 2028, the project will produce 300,000 ounces per year at all-in sustaining cost of $600 to $700 per ounce. And Ahafo North's functional and technical resources will be supported and shared with our current Ahafo operation, leveraging our proven operating model to reduce duplication in the region. We're very excited about progressing the Ahafo North project and look forward to developing this prolific orebody in the years to come. And finally, wrapping up with Nevada Gold Mines on Slide 25. Our ownership interest of 38.5% of Nevada Gold Mines will contribute an average of 1.2 million to 1.4 million ounces of production for Newmont over the next 3 years, and costs are expected to improve by 2023 to between $850 to $950 per ounce. As our operating partner covered during their Investor Day last month, 2021 and 2022 are years of investment to secure the long-term value of the joint venture. NGM is an important contributor to Newmont, and we very much look forward to our partner safely delivering the planned ounces at the planned costs. And with that, I'll now hand over to Nancy on Slide 26.

Thanks, Rob. Turning to Slide 27 to review our consolidated capital and expense outlook. We continue to invest in our future. And for 2021, we expect sustaining capital to remain steady at $1 billion, development capital to increase to $900 million due to capital deferrals from 2020 as a result of COVID in addition to spend of approximately $200 million as we advance Ahafo North and Yanacocha Sulfide. Note that this amount excludes approximately $200 million of capital related to Pueblo Viejo expected in 2021. Exploration and advanced project expenditures to increase to $390 million as we resume our most prospective drilling programs and advanced project study work. G&A to improve to $260 million with a continued focus on reducing support costs. Interest expense to improve by 8% to $275 million mainly due to our March 2020 refinancing of $1 billion at a rate of 2.25% and our expectation to repay our 2021 notes due in June. Depreciation to increase driven by a full year of production at all of our operations. And finally, our consolidated adjusted tax rate is expected to be between 34% and 38%, assuming a gold price of $1,500 per ounce which includes 6% to 9% related to mining taxes. Turning to Slide 28. Our balanced portfolio, combined with our disciplined and operating model, provides significant leverage to gold prices from the largest production in the world. We will continue to generate $400 million of incremental attributable cash flow with every $100 increase in gold price above our base assumption. To be clear, this is free cash flow that directly benefits Newmont's shareholders, enabling us to provide industry-leading returns. Using our conservative $1,200 gold price assumption, our base pre attributable cash flow would still total approximately $3.5 billion over the next 5 years, which now includes our investment in Yanacocha Sulfides and Ahafo North. Our ability to generate cash flow is unmatched, coupled with liquidity of $7.8 billion, Newmont is in a very strong position to execute our capital allocation priorities. Turning to Slide 29. Our capital allocation philosophy remains unchanged and continues to balance the following 3 priorities: reinvesting in our business through disciplined investments and exploration and organic growth projects with steady and consistent capital to fund the business, including investments to achieve our 2030 emissions reduction targets. We continued our leadership position in October and returning cash to shareholders when we announced our new dividend framework, which includes a sustainable base dividend with additional returns at higher gold prices and maintaining financial strength and flexibility to sustain the business across price cycles with one of the industry's lowest weighted average cost of debt of 4.2%. We are on positive outlook by Standard & Poor's, and we were upgraded by Moody's to BAA1 credit rating, further demonstrating our balance sheet strength. Finally, we completed our $1 billion 2020 stock repurchase program at an average price of $45 per share and demonstrating our commitment to leading returns with more than $2.7 billion returned to shareholders in 2019 and '20 through dividends and share buybacks. Now let's turn to Slide 30 to expand more on our dividend framework. As we announced in October, our most recent dividend increase was set within our newly established dividend framework. This framework provides our shareholders with the stability of a base annualized dividend of $1 per share at $1,200 gold price and the potential to receive 40% to 60% of the incremental free cash flow generated at gold prices above $1,200 per ounce. We will typically reassess the gold price semiannually and recommend incremental dividend increases when we believe that gold prices have rebased at levels at least $300 per ounce higher than we applied to establish our prior dividend increase. As a reminder, for the third quarter, we chose a conservative gold price of $1,500 per ounce which resulted in a 60% increase in our quarterly dividend, lifting our annualized rate from $0.01 to $1.60 per share, clearly leading the industry. While our dividend payout will always be subject to approval quarterly by our Board, this framework will result in stability and predictability for our shareholders. At current gold prices above $1,800 per ounce, we would expect to pay a total annualized dividend of between $2.20 and $2.80 per share. In addition to this framework, we have a number of tools available to deploy excess cash-based on the circumstances at the time, and these include further strengthening our balance sheet through debt repayments, opportunistic share buybacks and further dividends. With that, I'll hand it over to Tom on Slide 31.

Thanks, Nancy. And wrapping up on Slide 32. As we head into 2021, we are very well positioned to generate significant free cash flow and do so for decades to come. Our clear strategy lays the groundwork to truly differentiate Newmont as the world's leading gold company as we work to continue to demonstrate our commitment to our purpose of creating value and improving lives through sustainable and responsible mining. And with that, I'll turn it over to the operator to open the line for questions.

[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Fahad Tariq of Crédit Suisse.

Two questions. First, on Ahafo North and Yanacocha Sulfides, now that they're included in the guidance. Is there anything that you're waiting on for the formal approval? Or is it just the timing of the official approval next year? That's my first question.

Yes. Thanks, Fahad, and good morning. With Ahafo North, we're largely locked and loaded. We're just working through the final processes with the Ghana EPA to close out the EIS. There's a lot of community engagement work as part of that process. So I was just working with the -- with that regulatory body in Ghana to work through that process. So it will be a cab that will come off the rank in the earlier part of 2021, but we just need to work through that process in Ghana, but it's moving very smoothly. For Yanacocha Sulfides, we're still closing out the definitive feasibility study. So there is still a good 6 months of work as in second half of the year for approval as we close out the -- largely the engineering work to complete that definitive feasibility study.

Okay. Great. That's very clear. And then my second question, on the $500 million of climate initiatives, does that -- is there any expectation of cost savings from that -- those initiatives specifically on, let's say, lowering diesel costs or energy cost for each of the markets?

Yes, there be a mix of things that will come with that investment. And that is included -- that money is included in our outlook. And there'll be a mix of development capital, mix of operating expenditure. But there'll be a number of instances where we'll get energy efficiency by putting in a better pump a more efficient engine. We'll be still making investment in different solar and wind plants. The micro grid technology is really around improvements to how we use energy. So we would expect to get some improvements from those. We haven't quantified those improvements. We'll put them into our guidance, so they'd represent upside for that investment as it comes through.

The next question will come from Josh Wolfson of RBC Capital Markets.

First up on the total cash cost numbers and AISC, the numbers increased slightly versus, I guess, what the prior targets were issued last year. There's obviously been a number of changes at the operations from COVID and then presumably different commodity prices versus the budget of $1,200. Could you maybe walk us through what those changes were on the costs and how we should think about the current projections over the 5 years on the costs in that context?

Yes. I'll kick off, Josh, and I'll get Nancy to comment as well. The -- there are COVID-related costs coming with -- really across the board, a variety of different things, whether it's some productivity impacts with the different product costs we've got in place, the different cleaning regimes and so on and so forth. These are even the changes in mine sequences. So there's an amount of money across the board that is associated with that. But if I look through the various regions, North America is mostly in line. When I look guidance on guidance plan on plan, pretty flat. South America is higher. So you are seeing the COVID impacts around Cerro Negro and us factoring in some of the travel restrictions. And at Yanacocha, you've got some costs associated with delayed stripping that's flowing through into this year and then some closure costs that are a bit higher. Australia is higher, seeing some increased costs with sustaining capital moving from this year and next associated with autonomous haulage. And Rob talked about the roster changes at Tanami. So there'll be a bit higher costs associated with those, but you will get productivity improvements over time as that gets embedded in. Africa is largely in line, and we're also seeing Nevada as Barrick covered in their Investor Day a few weeks ago, you're seeing those higher costs coming through that they talked about that are been playing through to our bottom line. So that's a quick summary. I don't know, Nancy, if you want to add anything else to that?

Yes, Tom, I think that mostly covers it. The only other thing I would add is that coal products were lower, and that was really just driven by higher production. But yes, those are the guiding points for the updates to the guidance.

Okay. So then looking at 2023 and beyond, the costs are pretty much in line with what the old guidance was. Is it fair to assume all the fluid costs are excluded as of that point? And then also looking at that, the range in the future, that $800 million to $900 million at least on the AISC figures. What should we think of maybe as being the more realistic type of cost figures in the current commodity price environment versus what the budget assumptions are?

Yes. So again, I'll kick off and maybe get Nancy to talk to this one as well. You will certainly see some of those COVID costs washing through in those out years. And you are seeing the benefit in those outer years that you weren't seeing in prior guidance from the investment in Ahafo North and a little bit of Yanacocha Sulfides coming in the back end of that. So you are seeing that flow through. You will see, if gold prices has stayed high, I will see some increase in AISC. And Nancy, do you have those numbers at your fingertips to share with Josh?

Yes. I think the sensitivity is just really around taxes and royalties. And then the other thing you'll see is in that time frame is for Australia, in particular, TE 2 is up and running. And so that will start to impact unit costs. Relative to the royalties, in particular, as that impacts CAS, it's roughly $3 per ounce for every $100 change in the gold price. So hopefully, that gives you a little sense of costs. But again, I think that guidance that we provided is generally in line with prior periods.

And that's just above $1,200. So it's $3 per ounce, they'll be $100 above $1,200 [indiscernible] .

Okay, it's about $15 to $20, as Nancy can say, at least versus today.

Yes.

And one last question on the capital side. When we looked at CapEx guidance last year, it was hard for us to get a perspective on what the outlook was just given that there was 2 very large projects that could have been advanced with are now indicated to be advanced. When we look at the new guidance range, there are some larger projects in the portfolio that could be advanced as you talked about towards the latter end of the decade. Are there any sort of big potential swing factors that we should think of in terms of that 5-year capital spend guidance beyond what's already in there? Or does the current CapEx guidance pretty much reflects all of the larger moving parts that could be included?

You are really seeing all of the moving parts now included with those 2 big projects coming in. I think the back end -- with back end year 5, that may increase a little bit. As we do some more work on projects early on in our -- and we'll be working hard to see if there's anything that makes sense to maybe to bring into that back-end of the 5-year. But you can largely look at that 5 years and say the big moving pieces are now in there with the Ahafo North and Yanacocha Sulfides.

The next question comes from Jackie Przybylowski of BMO Capital.

I guess, I just wanted to maybe first walk through the full funds decision for Ahafo North and Yanacocha Sulfides. What is it that the Board will be looking for at this point? I mean, is this is this sort of a [indiscernible] and you're just sort of waiting on pulling the trigger on these? Or what exactly is the missing piece still at this point for those 2 projects?

So I'll step through both of them, Jackie. So Ahafo North, you expect Ahafo North large in the first half of next year, sulfides in the second half of next year. As we have taken both of those projects through our investment system over the last several years, so they've stepped through from concept to order of magnitude to pre-phase to feasibility and ultimately definitive as they come for full funds. Both of those projects being of a scale that would ultimately require Board full funds approval. Part of our gate review process at each of those steps is to share those projects with the Board. So both of those projects have been socialized with the Board now for a number of years, and I receive regular updates on progress as part of an annual regional review with the Board that has continued this year through our virtual environment and through our quarterly updates to the Board. So they are very familiar with those projects. And how they're progressing and the likely timeframe for them to come through. To ultimately move to full funds, they'll come through the investment committee that I chair for formal management approval and then we'll formally take it to the Board at a Board meeting. And they will be looking for us to be presenting a project that has addressed the risks, we understand the opportunities. And that we are going to generate a positive value for the business. So we have a $1,200 benchmark and an internal rate of return of 15% for a pure gold project that is one of the key benchmarks that the Board will be looking for, for Ahafo North. And they'll also be looking at our experience with implementing similar projects as we have done about Ahafo North is a blueprint of Merian, which is a blueprint of [indiscernible], which is a blueprint of Ahafo. So it's a right [indiscernible]. For Yanacocha Sulfides, given it's 50% gold, 40% copper, 10% silver, then we'll be looking at a range of commodity prices and looking at a range of different cost assumptions for those different commodities and looking at those returns, particularly around a project that has a very, very long life from the first wave of deposits, and then there's a second and the third wave. So it's -- it's a little bit different story around Yanacocha Sulfide than its approval, but one that we've been sharing with the Board, over a long period of time, second half of the year for that one.

So this is all information I would figure you'd already have collected. Are you just staggering the project decisions to make -- to manage?

Yes. It's more about finishing the due process of definitive feasibility. So definitive feasibility work for Ahafo North is largely done. It's the final permitting process with the EPA to get the permits to proceed. So it's largely optimized, but we work through that process with the EPA, which is going very well. Yanacocha Sulfide still got some more study work to do. So it's still got another 6 months of definitive feasibility. So we know enough to be able to -- given we expect to approve it next year, we know a mock to include it in our guidance, but there's still some engineering work for our project team to do to finalize, sharpen pencils and the like. So there's still a bit more work to do on that one.

Got it. And just maybe a completely different question. You mentioned you're publishing inaugural climate strategy report next year. What exactly is that going to look like? Are you going to be publishing new targets for for Newmont's approach to climate change? Or like what maybe can we expect that report would contain?

Yes. It will be same target similar reporting, just in the TCFD format. Steve got it, so are you able to speak? I might get Steve to cover that one for Jackie.

Sure, Tom. So you pretty much hit it right there, which is we will be putting out our climate strategy paper. And so this will be the first one that we do fully align with TCFD. As you saw when we reported in our sustainability report in 2019, we aligned that overall report with TCF, so that you were able to draw that information, but this will be an independent report on our climate strategy. As far as our specific targets in both the short and longer term, you will see those laid out, but we'll be now doing it in accordance with the guidance on TCFD in full. And that will be a separate report from the overall sustainability report that we then publish later on in May. So you'll see the TCFD-aligned report, I think, in end of February, early March.

Maybe just expect -- Steve, maybe just a quick expansion on the -- just a bit more on TCFD for the group on the call?

Sure. So this is the task force on climate-related financial disclosure. And so we will be laying out in a more fulsome way the decisions we're making, choices we're making, how we're doing it, the financial risks in other climate-related matters in that report. So it's a much more holistic report.

The next question comes from Anita Soni of CIBC World Markets.

My question pertains to Peñasquito. Could you give us an idea of the kinds of grades that we'll be seeing this year and the throughput level?

Anita, I think just looking for Rob. Can you pick that one up, Rob and take Anita through that one?

I can, indeed. Anita, in terms of the throughput, which is obviously critical, what we're really looking at is a 43 million tonne rate through the mill for next year. And then for the 5 years, it would come on average over 42 million. On the grades, we are kind of kicking around 0.72% gold, and then it goes up to 0.83%. And where you kind of see in 2024, we're going to get that drop in gold because of the sequence of the mine we're down around about 0.4%, but then the gold climbs up. And in year 5, we're back up to 0.8% in terms of gold. In that low year for gold, we are quite high with the gold equivalent ounces. So it kind of balances out quite nicely, but those are the kind of key figures there. Anita, sure hope that helps.

So just to clarify because I know you guys do metric tons or sorry, short tons and then you said percent, did you mean gram per tonne? Or did you mean percent?

Great. Yes, grams per tonne. Yes.

Okay. And then in terms of tonnes, is that short tonnes or long tonnes, in the long term?

I'm going to get corrected here, it would be long tonnes.

Long tonnes. Okay. And then just in terms of the Yanacocha Sulfide, I know one of the considerations is the closure cost there. Can you give us an idea of if you were not to proceed with the Yanacocha Sulfides, what kind of closure costs would you be looking at?

Thanks, Anita. I think that might be another one for you, Rob, you've got that number in indicatives.

Yes. We've got -- thanks, Tom. And again, the provisions that we carry on our balance sheet is around about the $3 billion, Anita, it's where it sits. And Nancy, would that be right? I just want to double check.

Yes, that's probably in the ballpark. Yes, that's correct.

And so by doing this, by proceeding with the Yanacocha Sulfides at the -- later on this year, I think you said that some of it might be mitigated a little bit. So would that number overall reduce? Or is it just a matter of it being pushed out?

I think I'll jump in, and Rob, feel free to build on this, but the number of things happened with the infrastructure. I mean you all -- you've actually installed processing plant that can process the water that you use for your new autoclave facility that can then stay beyond. And then you'd obviously continue to do your kind of current reclamation on the oxide deposits whilst you're developing and mining the software deposits. So that work will continue in parallel. Rob, anything you'd build on that?

No, that's correct, Tom. And I think the one thing I'd emphasize, it doesn't mean that those progressive rehabilitation stops. It continues, and that's a really, really important point. But you covered the rest of it, Tom.

Okay. And then just in terms of the -- so the Cerro Negro, you mentioned some of the veins that are coming through. Can you give us an idea of what the longer-term sort of just an average sustaining capital number or development capital that we should be using at that asset, given that you're developing, I guess, new veins in the next 3 years?

So I can kind of try that to give a sense that where -- and I'll kind of split it up between the 2 key areas, Anita, in the Marianas District. We're kindly looking at -- we're kind of looking at about the $80 million to $100 million in terms of development capital in the Eastern district, we're looking at a split between development capital and sustaining capital there between $100 million, $120 million in development, $100 million, $120 million in sustaining. So that would allow us to get to the point over that plan where we've got those districts significantly opened up.

Is that -- that's not brand in that cycle over the next 3 years.

That's over the period. That's correct.

Okay. Over the next few years. Okay. And then lastly...

So roughly, Anita, if you think about a rule of thumb, it's $70 million a year is starting $40 million to $50 million per year development, which would be an average over the 5-year period.

Okay. And then I have 2 last questions. The first one is with respect to the reserve replacement. Did you guys say that you had a target right now of 60% to 70% reserve replacement and that you would -- I know you probably hit around 60% to 70% as well of that. So multiclient somewhere around the 40% to 50% mark?

Yes. So it's -- we typically target replacing 2/3 of depletion on average each year with our investment. And we're going to do -- complicated with the numbers. We're looking at coming in around 60% to 70% of that number this year.

I'm sorry, I can't do the math for you, [indiscernible] could take you through that.

Okay. And then lastly, just in terms of broad strokes, I guess, moving into 2022, there's a reduction in the overall total cash cost. And I guess, predominantly, that comes from some of the COVID costs not being as onerous as they are in 2021? And then longer term, there's a cost improvement on total cash cost. Can you just outline some of the -- like maybe the big 3 drivers of that in 2023 through to 2025?

Yes. So you'll start to see -- you will start to see Autonomous Haulage and getting into the really good grades in the South Pit of Boddington. So it's going to be a key player. You will start to see us commissioning the shaft at Tanami. You will see some late shrinkage mining at Ahafo starting to come into play. You'll see a little bit in that timeframe of the Ahafo North at the back end. Sulfides' a little bit further on. And you've got the good start from next year, but you'll have the run rate of the synergies from the Goldcorp acquisition maintaining through there, you'll see that really next year, that's in the numbers. Anything about this, Rob, Nancy?

You covered it, Tom.

Okay. I lied. There's one more question. Yanacocha Sulfides, the $2 billion that you have in capital spend, I guess, over the next couple of years. Could you just kind of give us broad strokes like what the spending will look like 2022, 2023 and then into 2024, if there is any left in 2024?

Yes. Do you have that at your fingertips again, Rob?

I don't know.

Rob, pull that up please. Yes. You will -- it will be, we haven't provided that level of detail yet in it. As you think about that spend, it will be -- if you think second half of next year approval, will come out with the schedule with that approval then. But you'll have a year of ramping up. We'll start in '21, ramping up in '22 and the heavy spends have been [indiscernible] stand but we'll provide some more detail as that project is approved in the second half of next year.

Okay. And I'm sorry, when did you say you expected Yanacocha Sulfides to start-up in the second half of 2024 or beginning?

It's a 3 development schedule from [indiscernible] second half of '21, certainly, the back end of '24.

And Tom, just to clarify, that's the first goal. The commercial production is '25.

Yes. Autoclave will take a bit to ramp up, Anita. But don't ramp-up in a month, unfortunately.

The next question will come from Mike Jalonen of Bank of America.

Tom, Nancy and Rob. Just had a question on Peñasquito, from the last time that I was on. And just intrigued by the potential extension of mine life to 2040. So just wondering which targets could -- basically, it's almost 10 years of production, you have to fill in, and by my numbers. And also, you have an 18% interest in Orla. Obviously, owns Camino Rojo. They're looking at one-day mining sulfides. What private scales mill will be used for toll milling for Camino Rojo or is given you own 18% of Orla?

Thanks, Mike. I hope you've got your [indiscernible] socks on today as well for the call. What I might do is get Rob to cover your first question. Randy Engel, if you've got a phone connection, get you to pick up the Orla question for us. And Rob, maybe pick up the ability to do a Boddington with the existing ore body as well as the potential in that district.

No. I certainly will. And Mike, I think I'll cover it into is that through our investigations and our modeling, we certainly identified quite a bit of mineralization within our existing pit shells, which do still require drilling to convert to reserves. So this isn't all about greenfield, it's about how do we actually utilize the existing mine and do further laybacks, et cetera, to win back that or but as I've mentioned before, a couple of other key comments is that we've got 650 square kilometers there. Only 20% has been explored. And we're going to be spending around about the $10 million in 2021 to build that pipeline of new exploration targets to explore under cover for Peñasco style ore bodies. And because it's linked to the Cedros agreement, we've now got the full permission to do that drilling, to do that work for the first time. And we're going to be using our deep sensing geochemistry techniques. So we've got a myriad of targets, quite honestly, that we've got to work our way through and then look at where the probability is the highest. Typically, in the past, outcropping has been the way that the geologists have worked there. We do believe that it will be more under cover. But it really goes down to applying that systematic exploration approach and looking at the data sets and really examining the modeling. But as Tom said, if we look back what we've done at Boddington, that we've just been able to grow that progressively, a, because of what we've discovered at the end of a drill bit, but also the resources we've been able to change the reserves because of the cost improvements. It's a combination between that. So we certainly believe that Peñasquito has got a huge amount to offer. In the coming year, we'll start unpicking all of that. But hopefully, that gives a little bit more color in terms of what the plan of attack is at Peñasquito. But it's certainly one of our exploration team's largest focus areas.

Mike, it's Randy. I'll pick up on your question about processing and treatment. What I would say is Orla is definitely our core strategic equity position in no small part because of the optionality that it provides for working together. Obviously, the proximity there around Peñasquito is very beneficial potentially for new [indiscernible] in the future and for Orla. So we've got a joint technical committee that we formed. We work very closely with those folks and really like what they're doing so far.

Rob, if you're interested, I have a photo of the original discovery [indiscernible] on Peñasquito from many years ago.

I'd be very interested, Mike.

Thanks, Mike. Send it through.

The next question comes from Greg Barnes of TD Securities.

Tom or Rob, what's the opportunities in this production outlook if gold stays in the $1,800 to $1,900 per ounce range?

Our production profile wouldn't change. We would just continue to run the business with the discipline, and we get the benefit of the leverage to that gold price. So that project pipeline and the production coming out of those operations would be largely unchanged. We would potentially look at any opportunities at the very back-end of our 5 years where we start to see development capital coming off to say, is there anything there that we could do, is there something we could do around a copy project, is it something we might be able to do with some proper work over the next 2 or 3 years. I mean, of those mega projects for a low capital start-up, but that would be second half of this decade. For the next 5 years, that plan that we've laid out today, that outlook we've provided today is largely how we run the business, and we'll get the leverage to our gold price. We'll run it with the discipline of $1,200, and we'll get that $400 million revenue, $100 increase in gold price.

Okay. So you don't try and adjust the mine plans. And this year, 2021 is at $1,200 gold. You don't adjust the mine plan to buy in at all. You just run at $1,200, you don't adjust for a higher gold price in that process?

When we do -- when we do -- sorry, Greg, when we do our business plans, we -- and when we look at our strategic and long-term mine plans, we are looking at sensitivities downside to $1,200 and upside $1,200. So we understand the sensitivity of each of our mine plans. And there's not many of them, we do things differently over the medium or long-term mine plans. I'll get Rob to talk to one example with Cripple Creek and Victor where we have very deliberately done that. And Dean Gehring is on the line, I might get Dean to talk to mine plan sensitivities a bit more. And particularly, if I can get you to talk to the -- how we think about our cutoff sensitivities to maximize value on a more tactical basis. So we very much are looking that on tactical basis. So why don't I get Dean Gehring our technology officer to cover mine plans first and then Rob to talk about an example where we're doing some things with a resource layback at Cripple Creek and Victor. Over to you, Dean.

Yes. Thanks, Tom. And it is an important aspect of what we look at in terms of maximizing our near-term performance. So we have employed a variable cutoff protocol at all of our operating sites. And what that allows us to do is look at the price of the day to see what we can do to maximize value during that month's production. And so that is something that we do see benefit from, and it just depends on what the price is and the current state we're in, in terms of the sequencing of the mines. But we don't leave it just static. We will maximize the value depending on what near-term prices are as well.

Okay. If the gold price stays in this range through 2021, is there upside to your production guidance?

You get a -- you get to a point where you need to understand what your constraint is Greg. So it's really about understanding what our 12 mills basically can do. And ensuring that we've got those mills filled with the highest value ore to produce production. So we're -- so that would be the limitation. Certainly, the Full Potential work is about understanding where the bottlenecks are, working those bottlenecks to improve productivity, and that might be reduced costs or it might be more ounces, but that's largely how we look at it. That production profile will largely hold, and we'll be working on, I think you could expect to see us work on improving margins to that gold price rather than necessarily increasing volume. Did you want to -- Rob, do you want to talk to that Cripple Creek and Victor example where we are deliberately bringing in a resource layback?

Yes. And I think, Tom, I can. And Greg, it's pretty straightforward is that we've got a mine like CC&V that has had a huge mining history, both underground and above ground. And certainly, if the price of gold was significantly lower, we wouldn't be doing this. But we've kind of balanced the whole operation, the confidence of what's under the layback and have decided to move forward with the higher costs because we believe we can deliver it. So in many ways, it's kind of a case-by-case kind of thing rather than a general rule that, in this particular case, we believe that we can do it quickly and successfully and make money from it. But it's certainly not like another case that we've got poor confidence and that you just start stripping, hoping for the best. So it really is a calculated risk, but we are moving forward with a resource layback at CC&V, which will prove to extend that mine's life by a considerable amount of time and make money ultimately at $1,200 an ounce.

And you see opportunities beyond CC&V, i.e., at Peñasquito or at Cerro Negro or, I don't know where else you could see opportunities similar to that role.

Yes. And certainly, Greg, it really is that case-by-case example, that if you've got the infrastructures are there, you've got it set up. And you've got things that you can do in the current to pay for this. But we're certainly never going to run mines at a loss, and we've got to make sure we've got that discipline to make sure that our teams stay very, very sharp. So I'm sure there will be cases. There are a few at the moment, but it's that rigor that we're really trying to continually drive in that discipline. Did that cut you off, Tom, sorry?

No, you're fine, Rob.

The next question comes from Tyler Langton of JPMorgan.

Just had a question on the Full Potential. I think you mentioned $300 million of savings in 2021. Could you just talk, I guess, a little bit about what you would expect, like what areas the program could focus on, on 2022 and just sort of any initial thoughts on sort of what the benefits could be in 2022?

Thanks, Tyler. Was that where some of the benefits of the initiatives will be in '21 or '22?

Also with the benefits, like what -- for 2022, what the -- what areas the program could focus on and then kind of compare it to the $300 million in '21? Any additional thoughts on what the...

Got you. Rob, do you want to pick that one up and Dean, I might get you to talk to this one as well in terms Dean's the custodian of the program and get Rob to talk to that. I think Rob, Cerro Negro might be a pretty big lever for us in '22 to build off '21 with Peñasquito being a significant leader in '21. Over to you, Rob.

Yes. Okay, then. Thanks, Tom, and really appreciate the question. And again, without wanting to repeat, the Full Potential is such a critical program, and many of the things that we actually do one year, it's how do we maintain those to make sure that they're delivering value again and again. And if I pick on a couple that it's -- if we pick on Peñasquito as an example, that payload is somewhere where we're really focusing hard on payload. And if we look back just 6 months ago, we were currently sitting at 295 tonnes per truck. We're now sitting at closer to 310 tonnes per truck. And when you've got 80 trucks getting that extra 13, 14, 15 tonnes per truck day in, day out for a year, it adds up to millions and millions of tonnes. Now getting that kind of thing first to 310 then moving it to 315 and then 320. And I use Peñasquito, the payload applies to every one of our sites. So we've kind of got these common examples, which we replicate, we share with all our other sites. We give them the procedures and the know-hows. Everybody can pick it up, whether it's underground surface vehicles, et cetera. So we've got a variety of those initiatives, which will be year-on-year initiatives. But the ones in particular that I'm looking forward to is certainly around the Cerro Negro, the Musselwhite, the Porcupine, examples that the ones that are really picking up Full Potential for the first time. And Cerro Negro, we believe, it is a wonderful mine with it's got terrific prospectivity. And if we can get those development rates even to 3 quarters of the level that we're enjoying elsewhere, there is significant value in terms of not only how quickly we develop the tunnels, but moving other material from resources to reserves. And that's the same at Porcupine. It's the same at Musselwhite. And Peñasquito will deliver. But the important thing about good potential and sorry for waxing lyrical is even though Boddington has been going at Full Potential for 7, 8 years, it's still got another $100 million it's looking at in the coming years. So every year, we're finding more and more things that we can get better and better at. And with our operating model, is that being able to lift people's performance up to the leading level in the company quickly and easily. It just means that, again, the cash that will generate will be significant. But Dean, do you just want to talk a little bit more?

Yes. Thanks, Rob. I think what's important to keep in mind is this has been a program that's been in a way for a long time, as Tom mentioned in the opening remarks. And we continue to see even operations like Boddington continue to add value in Full Potential year-over-year. So it's not a one-and-done type game for us. And I would expect all of the places that Rob mentioned earlier, but we're still going to see a lot of value come from Peñasquito. And we also, as Rob mentioned, really focused on some global themes. So he mentioned the payload for one. This year, what I expect to see in the next year or 2 is a large focus on advanced mine control. In the past year, we focused on advanced process control, saw tremendous value out of that. As Rob mentioned, what we do is we approach these projects from a global perspective, we rapidly replicate those across all of our operations, we can maximize that value. So it doesn't just happen to speed of whenever one operation is able to implement these projects. So we'll see that process control play out more in the -- excuse me, mine control play out more in the technology arena, in the next couple of years.

Tyler, just wrapping that up, we only built into our budget or our plans the next year of initiatives that need to have detail that people have been -- general managers at our operating sites are held accountable for delivering on. And then we leverage that best practice through the year we look to replicate and then they build that into next year's plan with the expectation that at a minimum, we're offsetting inflation in the next year to try and control and manage cost escalation. And that's something now that's been going on for 7 or 8 years.

Perfect. That's very helpful. And then just a quick final question on reporting. For Ahafo North, is that going to be reported as its own mine? Or would that be lumped in just with Ahafo?

We've got to manage it as a single operation. So it is part of the Ahafo complex, and I'm looking to the narrative to -- we will -- we'll most likely have it separate in segment of both reserves and resources and in our reporting time.

The next question comes from Brian MacArthur of Raymond James.

My question relates to Autonomous Haulage, you talked a lot about the benefits of the Boddington when it comes in. In your 10-year plan or looking forward, is there anything that's changed from last year about where you're assuming of using Autonomous Haulage? Or maybe you could just update us on where you think you might put that next and I guess that sort of gives you a bit of clue in your confidence in the long-term nature of each ore body. But if you can just go through your thinking on that right now again.

Thanks, Brian. I'll kick off from Rob, but Mike can even chip in. So the 10-year profile, the only operation with Autonomous surface haulage is Boddington. We're going to have -- we have autonomous drills, and we've got autonomous and semi-autonomous underground equipment through a number of our underground mines. So Autonomous Haulage, another one of our current managed operations would represent upside to that 10-year profile and would likely be in the second half of the 10-year profile rather than the 5 years of our detailed guidance. Where our focus would be currently, and I think it's key work that I see us doing over the next 2 to 3 years, you're really optimizing those 3 mega projects instead of pre-feasibility study and determining which of those are the first to bring forward in the latter part of this decade. And I think it's Autonomous Haulage and proving Autonomous Haulage at Boddington gold mining environment, positions that technology to be the base case for a new mine and then can underpin and improve the economics of a new mine going forward. So at this point in time, I would see the first of those mega projects at the end of this decade, which aren't in that 10-year profile and Autonomous Haulage being part of [indiscernible]. There may be opportunities with some of our existing operations, which you need and what we're able to achieve at Boddington's mine life. We were able to improve cost and productivity of Boddington such that we had a mine life out in front of us, that could justify the replacement of a truck light. So you would need that in place at one of our existing operations. So there might be some interesting ones that come forward over the next period of time, focus is on the mega projects, potentially in our existing operations. Rob, is there anything you'd add to that?

Thanks, Tom. And I just probably add a couple [Technical Difficulty]

I'll just check if -- I think we've lost your sound, Rob, I think your headphones might have died after 1.5 hours. Brian, can I check, you can hear me?

I can hear you. Thank you.

Yes I'll just get -- Dean, do you want to make a point around the data that Rob was about to make?

Yes. And I'm sure it's very aligned with what Rob was about to say, too, is that there's obvious tangible benefits from Autonomous Haulage that Boddington will see. And everywhere else, we're able to apply that sort of application. But what we also know is that there's a discipline that we learn just by using Autonomous Haulage. And there's so much that we can gain by just understanding better how to use that data for predictability that will play out in many other applications, including smaller scale autonomous underground or even semi-autonomous-type vehicles. So we're going to see this leverage and then this theme play out in many more applications.

Great. And if I can just maybe follow-up back to your comment, Tom, because I guess, I mean, part of what my question was, and that makes sense -- total sense, what you're saying is just when Mike's question comes up about Peñasquito at 2040, and then Rob mentioned some of that would be in-pit stuff and everything, too. Would there be an opportunity there longer term? I guess that's sort of partly where I was going with this.

Yes. Look, look, if you've got a very long life mine at Peñasquito, it is well suited to Autonomous Haulage. It's not just -- when you think about the technology is pretty straightforward. It's the change management associated with introducing the technology is the really complex or hard work. And as you think through the change management and the benefit of Autonomous Haulage in a place like Mexico or Organa, you've got to weigh up. When we think about our purpose being creating value and improving lives, we're going to weigh up what are we going to replace the economic livelihood that currently comes through jobs, driving trucks with Autonomous Haulage. So that's the social complexity that we need to work through with a change management is an existing operation if you would change your fleet over. So that would be one of the areas that we need to work through, if our thesis proves out with Peñasquito, and we do end up with a very long life.

Great. Very helpful and very clear. And can I ask just one quick question to make sure I heard this right? The $500 million for climate change, so is that just going into normal -- is that going to be booked to normal operating costs? Or did someone say it was going to the advanced projects and line. I just wasn't sure where...

It will be a mix. It's a mix of both development capital and operating expenditure. So there'll be operating expenditure where you change out pumps at end-of-life and you're putting more energy-efficient pumps. There will be a bunch of that, which is included in the outlook, and then there'll be some specific development capital around solar plants and wind plants and some of the micro grid stuff. So it's a combination of the 2, Brian.

But it would be at the asset level, not in the corporate or...

Yes. That's -- it would be at the asset level. The only thing it'd carry in advanced projects. For instance, if we determine that power being hydrogen power in a vehicle at an advanced project, that is something that would go in advanced projects. But that would be small scale. The money is more around renewable energy, microgrid technology and more energy-efficient equipment at our mine sites.

The next question will come from Michael Dudas of Vertical Research Partners.

Maybe a follow-up from Brian on the $500 million on the climate change initiative. So it's $100 million a year over the next 5 years. Is that the total budget? Like, for example, some of these potential solar, wind projects, is that what you anticipate over 5-year periods what the investment will be? Or are there -- or is that just the baseline? And if there's a project that comes in -- going to cost more, you'll have a separate allocation decision on that?

Yes.

And to follow-up on that on the climate issue from what you were talking about on reduction of 30% by 2030. And the 15% you're expecting from your suppliers and vendors, is that something that it's going to be audited? Or is that like a best efforts? Or how is that going to be kind of for trade relative to how you're acting towards your vendors on the climate initiative?

Yes. So thanks, Mike. I'll get Steve. You're to pick up the second part of the question, Steve's still with us. Second part of the question in terms of site-based targets and those scope 3 targets and how we measured on those. The $500 million is putting our money where our mouth is, Mike, and say, we're committed to these targets by 2030 and we're putting some serious money behind supporting us getting there. That doesn't mean it's $500 million, and we're there. It's about $500 million to get immersion momentum behind this work and demonstrating that we can put in solar plants and wind plants and micro grid technology and around some -- particularly some of our remote sites and get that benefit and get on that pathway to our 2030 target and starting to see that through the other side of that to 2050. It's also about having an investment system that starts to encourage our operations to look at more energy-efficient solutions, whether that be having that as part of your control systems for monitoring those key metrics in your control systems, whether it's your maintenance teams, looking at what's the best pump to put in when it comes to managing climate, not just what's the most cost-effective pump. So it's about putting money where our mouth is to get the support behind that. Steve, did you want to pick up how we measure a measure held to account for both scope 1 and 2 and 3 targets?

Sure, Tom. Can you hear me okay?

Sure can.

Okay. Great. Okay. So keep in mind, I know you were asking specifically on scope 3 here as well. So our scope 1 and 2 are the 30% target, scope 3 are 15% target by 2030. And those primarily relate to our -- to the work we do with our joint ventures, and then, of course, our supply chain. And really, about half of our scope 3 emissions are really related to our joint ventures. So we'll be working closely with them to achieve that target. We also have signed a commitment with SBTi, who will be assisting us in doing the evaluation. And then in auditing around those targets. So we'll be reporting out against our performance in connection with the scope 1, scope 2 and scope 3 targets in our TCFD task force and financial-related climate disclosures, an annual basis. And so you will see that work. I think the scope 3 is the most complex, as you know, and there's quite a bit of work to do with our partners, with our suppliers as we assess what that actual baseline work is. And then a number of them, as you know, are coming out with their own targets, so working with them to know how to incorporate those, calculate those amounts.

Yes. Certainly a lot of momentum behind this initiative for sure. My second question is regarding on the capital allocation side, just for clarity, so the dividend policy, this next meeting for the 6-month period, is that coming in the first calendar quarter of 2021? Is that a meaning that you'll assess the current gold price versus the $1,500? Is that fair to speculate?

Yes, Mike, we'll sit down. I mean, we sit down every quarter, and the Board approved our dividend every quarter. So as part of that process. We will assess where gold has gone over the previous 6 to 12 months and then make some judgments there. So we'll meet and approve the dividend as we have been, and as we always do each quarter. We'll look back, but we won't -- as this framework gets up and running, it's semiannual. So we shouldn't expect that there's dividends going up and down on a a quarterly basis, we'll be looking for stability and predictability, but we'll certainly be having a good discussion in February based upon the previous 6 to 9-month period.

And my final question is, you certainly went through, obviously, dividend policy, the capital spending, the growth. You have a lot great pipeline, et cetera. Didn't really touch on acquisitions. Has that policy changed at all as your -- as things evolve, especially with regard to valuations in the marketplace and the competitive returns relative internally? And maybe the -- what is -- seems to be out there given there's been such variation in some nonprecious metal prices here over the past several weeks the most?

Yes, Mike, we -- I mean, our radar is turned on, and our definition of a world-class asset is our filter. So if something popped on a radar that was say greater than 300,000 ounces, it had $900 all-in sustaining cost or less, at least 10-year mine life and most importantly, in the right jurisdictions. If something trip those filters, we would have a look at -- a very good look at that because that would complement our portfolio and would fit within our operating model very comfortably, whether that was a single asset or a couple of assets of that size. So that radar is turned on. But -- and we continue to look and monitor. Difficult, very, very difficult in the current environment with travel restrictions to do proper due diligence. So it's something that I think COVID does impact robust M&A and then -- clearly, the current gold prices have -- would make it difficult. But it is part of our equation. We've certainly got the financial strength and flexibility to do something. If we saw that it could add value to our portfolio underneath our operating model. So the radar has turned on. 99% of the people working at Newmont are focused on delivering value from our 12 managed operations and supporting our 2 joint ventures.

The next question comes from John Tumazos, Very Independent Research.

Some of the ESG strategies of companies are new to us, and I apologize for the my unfamiliarity Glencore, for example, wants to have less emissions by not investing in mines and specifically not investing -- reinvesting in coal and letting things deplete. Will your $500 million investments meet your corporate cost of capital hurdle rates? Or would you accept a little less because of the GHG goals first? Second, through the successes of high-grade Cerro Negro extensions, Turquoise Ridge expansion, Goldrush or may be Fourmile helped to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, does the 2030 target assume the same cutoff grades, the same output and how does lower-grade stuff, Norte Abierto, Minas Conga, Yanacocha Sulfide, complex ores, impact the GHG goals?

Yes. Thanks, John. So the -- our portfolio naturally progresses to more underground mining, which does help you reduce your greenhouse gas emissions. So that helps. And then you can introduce technology into those underground mines like we have at Board of electric vehicles reduce not only greenhouse gas emissions, they reduced heat load in the underground mine, which reduces ventilation requirements, which in turn reduces, ultimately, greenhouse gas emissions, and it also reduces diesel particulates in underground mines, and makes it a quieter, cleaner and more healthier working environment. So we have built -- that's part of what's built into our plans is we do have a progression to underground mines that helps. We do expect to see some of the energy that we take off the grid become more renewable energy.

Yes. Tom, I know while you're to changing out to headsets, I can continue some of this discussion. So these investments, as you mentioned, will be looked at it on a case-by-case basis, and we'll certainly be looking at the greenhouse gas reductions and some of the things that is obviously driving them. But we also expect that there will be some amount of return on them. And where we'll see these play out as we continue to look at expansion projects or even improving our existing operations through normal capital replacements. And Tom, just check to see if you're back with us yet?

I'm back, so I can -- I'm back, so I can close. Must be paying my phone bill. Sorry, John, that I dropped out. Hopefully, the rest of the team were able to cover your answer.

We're up to closing out.

Thanks, Mike. I think operator, is that the last of the -- that is. Well, thank you, I know we've run over, but we wanted to take everyone's questions. I think you very much for your time this morning. Thank you for your continued interest in Newmont. And please, I wish you and your families a safe and happy holiday season and look forward to seeing you all in the new year. Please all take care.

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.