Nexans S.A. (NEX) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
July 26, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorLadies and gentlemen, good morning, and welcome to Nexans' First Half 2023 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to your host for today's conference, Mr. Christopher Guerin, Nexans' CEO. Please go ahead, sir.
Christopher Guérin
executiveThank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for participating in Nexans' conference call. I'm Chris Guerin, CEO of Nexans. With me Jean-Christophe Juillard, Deputy CEO and CFO; and Aurelia Baudey-Vignaud, VP, Investor Relations. Let me turn over to Élodie for the conference call rules.
Élodie Robbe-Mouillot
executiveThank you, Chris. I would like to remind participants that statements made during the conference call, which are not historical facts, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers and listeners are strongly encouraged to refer to the disclaimers, which are an integral part of our URD, along with the audio replay of today's call that will be posted on our website, nexans.com. I now turn you over to Chris, who will go over the first half highlights.
Christopher Guérin
executiveThank you, Élodie. Let's now turn to our presentation on Page 4. Once again, as you can see, we are very proud to announce a remarkable performance, achieving a record high EBITDA and record high return on capital employed, thanks to our unique value growth execution model, despite facing some one-off, as you have seen in the Generation & Transmission business, but that we will comment a bit later. We are a strong believer that our Distribution & Usages businesses can turn into premium market in the midterm. This is why we continue to make strategic acquisitions and elevate our prime offering. I will elaborate a bit more on this part. You've seen as well our adjusted backlog. Our risk and reward model approach helped us to grow selectively in terms of assets and projects within the G&T business. So our efforts are reflected in this impressive adjusted backlog, reaching EUR 5.2 billion. That will be reinforced further with the EuroAsia project award that has been announced mid-July. At our core, we value sustainability and understand its significance in overall Nexans business strategy. Our E3 operating model ensures that our sustainability commitments will be fully aligned with the business goals, and I will comment again some new targets that we have announced at the general assembly. Let's turn now to Slide #5. Moving to our financial performance. As you can see, a step forward in terms of achievement. If you remind, in H1 2019, we were around EUR 170 million -- EUR 190 million of EBITDA; and, of course, COVID time in 2020; '21, 220; H1 2022, around 308; and now we've reached EUR 354 million of EBITDA. Just a footnote here, our EBITDA now excludes the impact of IFRS 2, which is about a EUR 7 million. JC will comment on that later during the presentation. Normalized free cash flow stands at a very high level at EUR 281 million, reflecting solid operational performance and, of course, a high down payment in the G&T business related to TenneT specifically. Driven as well by our results from operations, we continue to have a step-up in return on capital employed. We finished this semester with a return on capital employed around 21%, which is an increase of 38 basis points for the group. And as you can see, in spite of the G&T disappointment for the semester, we have an outstanding return on capital employed for the Electrification business, but at 27%. Let's turn now to Page 6, regarding our portfolio evolution. We successfully, as you know, completed the acquisition of Reka Cables in Finland last January with a multiple of around 5x EBITDA before synergy, illustrating our disciplined M&A approach. So when you look at Centelsa and Reka, we have already acquired EUR 500 million revenue as part of our strategy to grow our Electrification portfolio. And we will continue in the coming months as we see some potential slowdown in the market in some businesses, and this can bring some new opportunities in terms of M&A. We worked together with JC in Colombia a few weeks ago and I'm very, very impressed by our Nexans' team, Centelsa team on the fantastic integration of Centelsa in all terms; operational, cultural, financial point of view. The synergy target at $12 million by 3 years already 1 year in advance. So that confirmed that our integration process is growing very well, and that shift is a very powerful lever to turn around or improve company's financials. A word on innovation on Page 7. We are also continuously creating new growth drivers with offers going just beyond cables and products. Those offers are representing a growing part of our Distribution & Usages businesses and generate a structural margin generation. SHIFT program delivered for the H1 about EUR 13 million EBITDA. Overall, a step-up of the prime offer in all regions, in all verticals going forward, and thanks to our development of reputable offer region by region. More specifically, and we are highlighting that for the second time, the Nexans Fire Safety offer is a combination of our fire safety cables plus digital solution, including sustainability. And this is exactly a great example of how the combination of our cable and solutions come together to solve customer pain points in the building market. To reinforce the message on the fire safety, we have the second period of our offer through a video that we can launch right now. [Presentation]
Christopher Guérin
executiveAll right, so this is the second video of our fire safety offer. We have a reputable model, which is deployed region by region for this specific approach. Slide #8, back to Generation & Transmission. The CapEx expansion plan for Halden is moving forward to be ready for the first quarter of 2024. As you have seen yesterday night, we have just announced the investment in the new cutting-edge cable-laying vessel to support our record project backlog and meet the global installation needs for both offshore wind farm and interconnection market. This unique vessel will be built on the capabilities of Nexans Aurora, but with an announced loading of 13,500 tonnes loading capacity, the ability to lay 4 cables simultaneously to meet new customer requirements, specifically for large-scale projects, and this vessel will be delivered in 2026. On Page #9, turning now to our sustainability journey, where we have a very good start for the year. I wanted to highlight that what we introduced in the climate strategy at our general assembly. The fact that we strengthened our GG emission reduction commitment, bolstered by our unique approach on the E3 performance model. As you have seen, we are committed to a minus 29% of emission reductions for the Scope 1 and 2, minus 19% for the Scope 3; and up to minus 46% for Scope 1 and 2 by 2030. Thanks to, of course, our focus on value growth more than just volume, just to give you an example, our natural resources consumption have significantly reduced for this semester versus the semester of last year. Let's now go to business overview on Page 11. As you can see, Electrification organic growth is slightly down, mostly impacted by the exit of the Umbilical business in the Generation & Transmission vertical. So if you exclude the impact of this closure or stop of the Umbilical business, the organic growth of the group would have been 3%. Non-Electrification business is growing up with strong dynamics, while we continue in the meantime to reduce the metallurgy exposure to the external market in order to reduce the dilutive impact of this business. Both profitability of the business are improving strongly with the exception of G&T, that wraps up the EBITDA margin at 10.7%. If we go now in detail slide by slide, business by business, Generation & Transmission on Page 12. So Generation & Transmission sales came at EUR 384 million for the first half 2023, which is, of course, down by 10.3% compared to the first half 2022, reflecting the ongoing exit of the Umbilical's activity. As anticipated, unfortunately, and mentioned in Q1, the EBITDA was impacted by a combination of different elements. The unfavorable mix of the project versus the first semester of last year and unfavorable mix of phasing as well, so with less Interconnectors business, the ramp-up cost of Charleston, which impacted some project progress and now is completed. So past issues of the one-off of Charleston are behind us. Some inflation cost on some legacy contracts that we had to absorb and as well some impact on the margin linked to the delays of the EuroAsia awards that was expected in the course of the first semester have not been signed in July. The H2 will remain affected by still some of those elements, even though the headwinds are expected to gradually ease and the ratio will improve, but I'm sure you would have questions on GC, we'll be happy to answer. On the Slide 13, as you can see, orders remain strong and sequentially growing with the TenneT frame-agreement award, which is one of the top largest in the history of the group. Under this frame, we'll deliver 3 turnkey 525 kV projects. This initial value is about EUR 1.7 billion with some major subcontractor work to be added once each project specific call off will be signed. So with that core can go -- what I mean is that it can go up to EUR 2 billion. What is reflected here on the backlog is that if you add up the EuroAsia that has been signed mid-July, our backlog at the end of July will be at EUR 6.6 billion, which is, of course, a record for Nexans, 88% growth versus the end of December 2022. And what I want to highlight as well is that we are certainly one of the biggest backlog subsea-driven in the world because, as we mentioned here, 97% of our backlog is subsea-driven. So Umbilical is shrinking big time because of the exit, and as well we are reducing our exposure to land high-voltage business that are lower margin generation. On Slide 14. Turning now to distribution. Sales were up 4.3% organically. This segment is benefiting from the expanding green investments. And you know we need to renew our power grid, both in Europe and in North America, and then associating cables plus accessories. What is very impressive is this record of EBITDA generation, and this is a very long time that we have not seen a double digit in distribution. So this substantial margin expansion reflects the successful transformation of our SHIFT program and the fact that the vast majority of our equipment are fully saturated, thanks to a very strong demand. We have made as well significant progress in the deployment of value-added solutions. Now we have more than 850,000 connected users coming from 0, 2 years ago. So of course, this will keep growing and generate recurring revenue and recurring margin. We are very proud about it, thanks to our innovation. On the Slide 15, Usages. Usages was down minus 2.8%, resulting from a selectivity and prioritization of structural performance. You know we don't look for volume. We want to make sure that our EBITDA can resist some downturn. We've reached a record of EUR 137 million, both in absolute value and as well as record in percentage with a 15.4% EBITDA margin for this business, which is the sum of a dynamic market and conjunctural effect for the first semester; successful transformation effort, which is the big part; strong pricing power; and as well the rise of the prime offer. And we'll get certainly some questions because we see some slowdown in some markets that may affect the second semester that gives us some prudence in our guidance. In regard to the Non-Electrification, Mobility and Mining benefited from a very solid momentum, as you can see. We have launched as well SHIFT performance for the value burners activities that have generated a significant uplift of the margin. We see a soft softening in information orders versus last year's high level, which could be a sign of as well economic slowdown for the next coming months. Auto-harness has double-digit growth with a very strong ramp-up project in the U.S. and the increased deployment of shares in the electrical vehicles. Metallurgy is down, as we already announced, and we see that Telecom is experiencing a modest decline in revenues. Let me turn now to JC for the financials.
Jean-Christophe Juillard
executiveThank you, Chris. So if we move now to Page 18, we look at our financial performance for our P&L. You can see, and Chris discussed -- explained about our organic growth, minus 0.6%, mainly driven by 2 things: the G&T decrease because of the exit of the Umbilical. We reduced sales on Umbilical by EUR 100 million versus last year -- same semester last year. And the second one is obviously the continuous decrease of our Metallurgy business for the strategic reason we've been explaining since now 2021. So if you exclude those, basically, the organic growth is quite strong. EBITDA stands at a record level of EUR 354 million, which is 10.7% EBITDA margin, first time ever for Nexans to reach double-digit EBITDA margin and definitely completely aligned with our targets that you recall from our equity story to be between 10% to 12%. We are already there this semester closing. I just would like to mention, as Chris said in the introduction, that now our EBITDA is excluding the IFRS 2 charge. It's a charge that's for employee benefit, long-term employee plan, shares distributed to employees. It's a noncash expense. And to be, I would say, with the same treatment than best practices, we have decided now to exclude that, because obviously, this charge is becoming meaningful at a share price around EUR 8 per share. It represents EUR 7 million in the EUR 354 million EBITDA. Operating margin very strong. Reorganization costs slightly above last year, mainly coming from the cost of exiting the Umbilical business and the layoff plans. Operating items way below last year. But last year, if you recall, we had 2 exceptional events. I mean 1 exceptional event, which was the sale of our land in Hanover in Germany, which came with a profit of EUR 50 million. That obviously did not repeat in 2023. And we have also less core ex impact, about a flat result on core ex this year versus a gain of EUR 25 million last year. Net financial expenses higher as well, mainly coming from the cost of debt, which has been increasing due to interest rate high and the fact that we had also issued a new bond in the first quarter of 2023 before we repaid the maturing bond of May 2023. And therefore, we had a little bit of overlap on the cost interest. Income tax in line and basically coming from net income from operation of EUR 134 million, which is at par from last year, if you exclude the onetime gain of last year for the sale of the land. If you look on the waterfall here, you can see that basically the contribution of the businesses in the EBITDA growth, strong contribution, as Chris explained from Distribution & Usages, offset by Generation & Transmission, which is mainly the lack of EBITDA coming from the Umbilical business, as well as basically some inflation and ramp-up cost in Charleston that we occurred in the first semester of this year. If I move now to the next page, Page 19. As we always do, I'm presenting here the Electrification EBITDA change between '22 and '23 by levers, by the different axes of our basically value transformation. So basically, in terms of net costs, which is the net between cost improvement and inflation, we are positive. We have been able to pass through all of the inflation to our customers, and at the same time, get some material savings on cost, mainly in purchasing and industrial savings. AMPLIFY and SHIFT, which are the key of our transformation, are contributing both EUR 23 million for AMPLIFY and EUR 30 million for SHIFT, growing basically the most accretive margin businesses in terms of volume for AMPLIFY and SHIFT, which is a transformation of our still low performing units and as well are moving our units to innovation with more innovative products and IoTs. Strategic CapEx is also one of the levers coming from the new extension of Halden. We started to do some survey and some studies and therefore, started to generate a little bit of profit yet on this strategic new addition. Generation & Transmission, I mentioned, is mainly due to the drop of the Umbilical plus some adverse effect on some margin of the project in the first half, mainly in Charleston, but also inflation costs. And then after that, some conjunctural reversal, which are some one-offs also in G&T businesses, and D&U normalization, Distribution & Usages normalization. Margin came up at 13.3%, which is 100 basis point increase of margin for the Electrification business in the first semester of '23 versus last year. If I move now to the next slide on Page 20 and we look at the net debt evolution. So our leverage is slightly reducing from 0.4x to 0.3x EBITDA. So basically, the strong cash generation from the businesses, EUR 237 million, plus some meaningful positive change in working capital, mainly coming from the down payment received at the end of the second quarter, the TenneT down payment, where we received EUR 150 million, definitely helped basically the cash generation of the semester. CapEx remains quite high, EUR 148 million. Including that we have EUR 89 million of strategic CapEx, which is completion of addition of expansion in Halden that will be completed by the end of the year. Other meaningful cash out was the dividend, obviously, to the parent and also the acquisition on the M&A box of Reka that Chris mentioned earlier in Finland. If I move now to Page #21 and we have a look on our balance sheet. So we continue to have a quite strong balance sheet with a meaningful basically -- I mean, very good working capital level and basically a total financing of EUR 2.4 billion. When you look at the ratios, we have lot of room on our covenants, slight increase in the gain ratio, mainly coming on the net debt, and also the leverage ratio is decreasing due to the cash repayment. If I move now to the next slide and we look at our liquidity on Page 22. You see that we have a very strong liquidity position, close to EUR 2 billion. When you add up the cash at the end of June, plus the undrawn EUR 800 million revolving credit facility, EUR 2 billion. We have the next maturity date for our bond -- on the coming bond is the one maturing in April of 2024, EUR 200 million. Nothing more in the remaining of 2023, and again, a very strong cash position of EUR 1.2 billion at the end of June. Now I will move to Page 24. In the light of the very strong performance of the first half of 2023, we have decided to raise the guidance, both on EBITDA and normalized free cash flow. Obviously, this guidance includes the contribution of Reka for the second semester. So we increased EBITDA from EUR 570 million to EUR 600 million to a new range of EUR 610 million to EUR 650 million. And normalized free cash flow increased as well by about EUR 70 million on the lower part of the range and EUR 50 million on the upper part of the range, and you see the basically tailwinds and headwinds. Obviously, now that we are at half of the year, we are getting more and more comfortable about the performance for '23 and optimistic about it. That being done, it concludes my financial section and I turn on the mic to the operator.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Daniela Costa from Goldman Sachs.
Daniela Costa
analystI have 2. So first one, just a clarification, I guess, on some of the things that you've said in High Voltage. Can you give us some view how quickly some of these headwinds can erode. I guess there's some like inflation, ramping up of Charleston mix that you should have high visibility on, I guess, because of the backlog. So how steep can be the resolution of these headwinds? And on High Voltage as well, maybe you've explained and I've missed it just right now. Those EUR 20 million project-related expenses that you've exceptionalized. Can you just repeat that? Probably, sorry, I missed it. Why is this not considered operational and is exceptionalized? And then the second question related to just your outlook commentary. Can you maybe break it down between Usages, Industrials, Distribution? What are you assuming inside your guidance for pricing in the second half versus volume and the sort of visibility you have? I know you mentioned some slowdown commentary. But yes, just those 2 points.
Jean-Christophe Juillard
executiveGood morning, Daniela. So I will take the first question on G&T and the headwinds. You're completely right that some of the impact that we've seen in the first semester will not repeat themselves. Obviously, they are one-off in the second half. And we had specifically those, and we mentioned specifically, for instance, delays on some projects in Charleston that basically drove to healthy liquidity damages recognition in the first half of the year, but that are now fully booked in the financial that will not [indiscernible] because the project is over. So definitely, those are one-off, and they are quite -- I mean they're meaningful, more than EUR 10 million, EUR 13 million to be precise. We have also some inflation that impacted the margin of the project, on some of the wind offshore projects that entered the backlog before COVID or right at the beginning of COVID, and we're not completely immune, I would say, against open type of cost inflation. The margin of those projects has been adjusted. Obviously, when you adjust the margin of a project, you have to take the rate [indiscernible] one-time impact on your margin, impacting your P&L. And therefore, I mean, we now get to the level of margin in the second half, but we will not get the first one charge impact of the adjustment. So obviously, this is behind us as well. And then the last thing, which is making a big difference between H1 and H2 is if we were anticipating to get EuroAsia contract in the first half, which is a very strong margin provider for the company and for the business segment G&T. And since this project was only signed in the second semester, I mean, at the end of the month of July, anything is not included in the first half numbers, and this is definitely lacking into the numbers. Definitely, in H2, there will be a catch-up effect and substantial, I would say, contribution of EuroAsia in the second half of the year. So these are the main elements that obviously will give us more visibility and we are expecting a better performance of the G&T margin in the second half for the reason I just explained. However, I mean, it will remain below for the year of what we've seen in the previous year in terms of the variable level of the first half of '23.
Christopher Guérin
executiveYes. And we can add JC that Charleston legacy contracts are a bit behind us. We have load outsourced work and we just started the production of the very, very big contract of [indiscernible] Revolution. So a lot of things should normalize in terms of production. But it's very complex to ramp up new factories in a country that has no legacy in the offshore wind farm subsea cables. So good luck for the future investments, but I think we hope that for us, it's behind us. Regarding the question regarding D&U, I think you're right to separate the 2 together because it's indeed 2 different dynamics. In regards to Distribution & Utilities, all nations are working up at the same time in regards to their very obsolete electrical grid. And we have, in all countries, specifically Europe, North America and South America, very, very high demand, which is, for us, resilience in case of recession. So the numbers that you see right now, as it's a frame agreement on call-off, maybe not on growth because it's a question of installation phasing that will remain for the next semesters. Whereas in Usage, we have seen a degradation of demand strongly in North America, which, of course, things are normalizing. We kept our pricing up. We have seen as well some degradation in Peru and Chile and as well Australia. A slight slowdown in the Q2 in Europe, nothing significant for the moment, and a strong growth in Africa and Netherlands. Of course, we remain prudent because we have some signs of downturn in some regions, and this is why we are anticipating those downturns by recession-proof actions on our cost base to make sure that it will not impact our margin. So that's the answers for those questions you had.
Daniela Costa
analystSorry, just a follow-up on the first part on G&T. You talked now through most of the items on that bridge, but Umbilicals, can we just confirm how much of a drag there will be, if any, still in the second half? And also the point on the EUR 20 million exceptionalized, if you could -- maybe I missed that again.
Jean-Christophe Juillard
executiveSo on the Umbilical, so definitely, most of the decrease is coming -- was in the first half. There will be a remaining decrease in revenues in the second half, but not to the magnitude of the first half.
Christopher Guérin
executiveMaybe I can give you the value of our Umbilical backlog. In Q2 last year, it was about EUR 200 million. And in Q2 this year, it's about EUR 16 million. So we are really on the way of the exit.
Jean-Christophe Juillard
executiveAnd sorry, the other question on G&T, I did not understand. Can you repeat please, Daniela?
Daniela Costa
analystNo, I was just clarifying again, and I might have missed it earlier. On those EUR 20 million that are project related that you put below the line, they seem operational. So just interested on why did you exceptionalize...
Jean-Christophe Juillard
executiveYes, exactly. No, this is one project, called Umbilical project, that we are manufacturing in Halden. It's definitely impacted in its completion due to the termination of the segment Umbilical, and therefore, between the announcement of the restructuring, I would say, of the Umbilical and the completion of the project, there are significant departing, lots of engineers, people and efficiencies. And therefore, all the, I would say, losses around the project were basically connected to the shutdown of the line of business. Therefore, I mean, typically, when we had situation like that, if you recall, when we shut down Halden in 2019, we had a couple of planned projects that were in the same situation. We were able to move those costs in restructuring. Now since COVID, basically, it's not permitted anymore to move that to restructuring. So we have basically created a line in our P&L called specific operating items, and we basically moved that outside of EBITDA because, again, we want EBITDA to be a comparable version over time. And those costs are linked to the restructuring or discontinuation of this Umbilical business, and therefore are not operational. So I mean, reporting them in EBITDA would not be comparable with what we've done in the past and is not part of our internal rule of basically reporting operational performance, but it is in EBIT, earnings before interest and taxes. And by the way, this is the same way that many other companies do it. You look at our competitors or you look at Prysmian, [indiscernible] do the same thing basically excluding nonoperational, non-repetitive -- I mean, operational but linked to restructuring items outside of EBITDA.
Operator
operatorWe now move on to our next questioner, which is George Featherstone from Bank of America.
George Featherstone
analystFirst one, just on the G&T margin, just maybe a little bit more clarity, if we could possibly get it. Could you help us with what the underlying margin is for the business in H1 excluding the Umbilicals in the past. You've done it with the organic growth. Can you just help us with what the margin would be for the G&T business in H1 without Umbilical? And then, more broadly in that segment, there's been some messaging from a few developers that there's delay in the offshore wind market due to rising costs. I just wondered what, if any, risk you see in your backlog as a consequence of that?
Jean-Christophe Juillard
executiveYes. So we'll start with the first one. The underlying margin would be similar to the one we reported. It has an impact on the EBITDA volume. Value of the EBITDA, basically, obviously, the fact we removed about EUR 100 million of sales, it does not have a meaningful impact on the change in the percentage of margin business.
Christopher Guérin
executiveRegarding the -- yes, we've seen some messaging showing some developers on consideration of delay of major projects. So far, based on our backlog, we are not concerned.
George Featherstone
analystOkay. And then in the Distribution business, we've obviously seen a significant improvement in profitability. Clearly, demand is strong. But you've talked in the past as well about renegotiation and framework agreements. So I just wondered if there's been any impact from that yet, and how much of your business in this area is on these new framework agreements?
Christopher Guérin
executiveWell, the vast majority of our business in Distribution is supported by long-term framework agreements that have been renegotiated. But as well on top of that, we have performed SHIFT in many of our units that have not been under this program in the last 3 years. That improved, through complexity reduction, the generation of EBITDA percentage on free cash flow generation. So I will say, with the renegotiation of the frame agreement plus the equipment saturation plus the SHIFT performance, that we are on structural margin basis.
George Featherstone
analystOkay. And then final one just on the portfolio. I just wonder if you could give us an update on the telecom disposal and also the plans for the auto harnesses disposal. I think you last commented on this that you might be able to do something with that business by the end of this year. Is that still a time line that's relevant?
Christopher Guérin
executiveYes. So regarding Telecom, the transaction is ongoing and should be disclosed in Q3. Regarding harnesses, we put on hold because business is going very, very well. We plan to reach EUR 800 million revenues by 2024. You know the situation, if Ukraine doesn't ease the process, we have received some overflow, but that was not for us enough, I would say, attractive to dispose that business. So what we do is that given the volatility of Ukraine, we have duplicated our equipment in other countries in order to ease the work and carry on to shift from Ukraine to the other countries. And this implication as well reduces the risk of our business of automotive harnesses and that will certainly improve the quality of the offer that we should receive next year. In the meantime, as the harnesses will not be pursued this year, we have another activities in [indiscernible], which is very well on progress and that should be announced on the Q4 of this year as a disposal.
Operator
operatorAnd up next, we have Sean McLoughlin from HSBC.
Sean McLoughlin
analystJust to, I suppose, dig a little bit more into G&T. I mean thinking of 17% to 24% target that you gave us last year. I mean, we're clearly a long way from that. And just looking at your backlog, I suppose at which point does that mix shift, let's say, structurally towards giving you a 17% to 24% target range? And at which point is, let's say, higher inflation actually baked into all your forward margin assumptions for G&T. That would be the first question.
Jean-Christophe Juillard
executiveI will take the question, Sean. So definitely, as you rightly say, we're quite a long way for that. But we have modeled basically our backlog, the current backlog we have, including EuroAsia and TenneT, the 2 latest contracts that are meaningful contracts because both of them represent more than EUR 3 billion, EUR 3.5 billion of future sales. And we have looked at, with the margin we know on those contracts and the rest of the backlog, how this backlog will basically deplete itself in the coming 5 years. So basically, what can I tell you to answer your question precisely is that starting 2026, we will be above 17%, and then we will reach gradually, more than 22% by 2028. So this is the latest we've done -- information. In the meantime, between now and 2026, we will ramp up progressively to get there, but the big change will be 2026 for sure.
Sean McLoughlin
analystI guess on the new vessel, can you give an indication of the total CapEx and when you will spend that?
Jean-Christophe Juillard
executiveYes, sure. So the total expected CapEx for the new vessel is EUR 270 million. We'll start expanding part of that this year in the second semester for about EUR 60 million. The bulk part of it will be next year in '24 for EUR 130 million, and the remaining portion will be in 2025.
Sean McLoughlin
analystAnd lastly, on Distribution, you talked about the recurring revenues, 850,000 connected users today. I mean, what proportion of your revenues would you say are recurring in Distribution? And what is your target of connected users from that base today?
Christopher Guérin
executiveIt's about roughly 5% and the objective is keep growing, keep growing because that's part of the strategy to make sure that we can resist to any fluctuation of demand in terms of margin generation, and what we see is that we are a bit alone proposing those offers to our customers that are very, very well accepted. So we'll keep growing above 5%. Our team has a very strong incentive to increase that data.
Sean McLoughlin
analystI mean, maybe just in terms of your penetration of -- just to put that kind of 850,000 into some context...
Christopher Guérin
executiveSorry?
Sean McLoughlin
analystThe number of connected users today, what kind of penetration is that, would you say of, I don't know, new sales or existing...
Christopher Guérin
executiveWell, we can say that -- let's look at the ULTRACKER with the 40,000 connected objects. For the Distribution, our potential target, with the captive market that we address, can reach a total of 4 million of connected objects. So we are only at the beginning.
Operator
operatorAnd we're now moving on to our next question, which comes from Eric Lemarié of CIC.
Eric Lemarié
analystI've got 2 actually. The first one, regarding your guidance in EBITDA this year, if I'm not mistaken, the low end of the guidance implies an EBITDA margin decline in H2. But is there any reason why it should be this case? That's my first question. And second question on acquisition. You mentioned your intention to pursue acquisitions, but I was wondering whether it is still imperative for you, as you've got plenty to deal with, with your current backlog.
Jean-Christophe Juillard
executiveSure. I'll take the first question. So definitely, as you rightly say, we're expecting second half to be -- I mean, it's not we're expecting, it's just we're lacking visibility as we -- I mean, as we would do in the Usages & Distribution, most likely businesses, we started to see -- we've had a very, very strong first quarter performance in both segments, Distribution & Usages as well as Industry & Solutions. Second quarter started to slow down a little bit in terms of the volume. We've seen -- mainly in some of the areas in the world where we had the most strongest, I would say, for the past 18 months, strongest volume and pricing increases, we've seen some slowdown in the month of May and June that are continuing in the month of July. And you know that on those businesses, the visibility is quite short-term, couple of weeks only. And therefore, we are remaining cautious about what could be the situation if volume continues to drop in the third quarter and if prices could also drop. We are quite resilient, we believe, on prices for the reasons that Chris described about basically our transformation, our ability to move up in the value chain in our product. So we have not touched at all, or very little bit impact on prices so far despite some volume changes. But obviously, the situation remains uncertain, I would say, at least for the last quarter and the second part of the third quarter. So definitely, we're taking a little bit more prudent approach when it comes to that. And the second impact to that is, despite we believe on G&T that most of the impacts of the first semester are behind us, we still continue to trade or recognize margin on some of the projects that will be completed in the second half of the year, beginning of next year at a lower margin level for the reason I explained. And therefore, that will not necessarily, except EuroAsia, compensate the potential drop in Distribution & Usages. So for those reasons, we remain cautious, I would say, for the second half. Hence, the guidance the way we presented today.
Christopher Guérin
executiveYou know that this is a bit our trademark for the last 5 years or so, make sure that we reach our numbers, but as well anticipating potential risk and remaining prudent in the guidance. Regarding your second question on the acquisition. Of course, full blast on Electrification, but 2 different universes. In the High Voltage business, we have decided to play organically with the Halden expansion, with Charleston, with Aurora, with the new second vessel that we just announced. It's an organic, I will say, choice, whereas in Distribution & Usages, of course, we keep investing in some organics and we'll make some announcements in the coming months, specifically on Distribution business. But this is where we'll play as well inorganic. We still have a lot of potential of consolidation in that market because of a multitude of regional players. That are certainly a bit worried about the evolution of the demand in 2024, and that gives us a great opportunity to accelerate our acquisition dynamic in that field. And this is what we see right now. Really, our team is fully loaded on the M&A stream. So I think we'd be very happy to announce another acquisition in the incoming months.
Operator
operatorOur next question now comes from Akash Gupta from JPMorgan.
Akash Gupta
analystA few questions from my side as well, and I'll go one at a time. The first one I have is on these investments in High Voltage. And Chris, again, I mean, we can see the need for investments given the backlog, which has gone up at you and your competitors. But what was the surprise for me was that when we look at your competitors, they're also investing in new capacity as well as vessel. But when we look at your announcement, it is only about vessel. So maybe if you can elaborate on -- does this mean that you may be still open to increase capacity further in future, if required? And probably that may take lower lead time than getting a new vessel, which is why you are announcing the vessel before, and shall we read this that you may be open to an idea of increasing further capacity in High Voltage? And then the follow-up of that question was also for JC that, how shall we think about the strategic CapEx for the full year? I mean it was, I think, EUR 77 million in the first half. And now I think you're saying there would we EUR 60 million, if I understood correctly, for vessel. So what is the new number for strategic CapEx for the full year?
Christopher Guérin
executiveThank you, Akash. Yes, we then answer to your questions. So first of all, the G&T business has to be taken in different parts. We are lowering massively our exposure to land High Voltage. That means you need to compare subsea to subsea. So it means our colleagues have invested in both land and subsea new capacity. We make a massive investment in Halden that will be open in Q1 2024. What I can tell you today is that Halden is loaded at more than 90% up to 2027, including, of course, TenneT and EuroAsia. And the difficulty that we have is that with this full loading of Halden plus as well Charleston, because we are full up to 2027, we were lacking installation capacity. So we've just resynchronized installations versus production given the backlog that we have today. What I can tell you is now with the new capacity of the ramp-up of our investment in Charleston, we are fully synchronized with this balance with this third vessel. Do we need to announce more CapEx? Not right now because let's execute properly what we have. Our choice is to be 97% subsea-driven considering the level of margin on the lower exposure to massive competition in that field, because you know that Interconnector, we are roughly 3 players; on offshore wind farm, 5 or 6; that generates a higher margin. So that's, I will say, the answer that we can bring today, Akash, for the moment. JC?
Jean-Christophe Juillard
executiveYes, for the question on the strategic CapEx, Akash. So in the first half of this year, 2023, we spent EUR 90 million, 9-0, of strategic CapEx for the continuous extension of our 2 new lines in Halden. In the second half of 2023, we'll spend EUR 120 million, which basically half of that will be the completion of the additional line in Halden, and then there will be operation in the beginning of '24. And EUR 60 million for the new vessel, of EUR 120 million, which brings basically the total strategic CapEx for 2023 go to EUR 210 million.
Akash Gupta
analystAnd my second question is on organic growth. So if I look at the Electrification business, you say you had 3% organic, excluding Umbilical. Is it possible to get a rough idea of how much of that was volume versus pricing?
Christopher Guérin
executiveIt's majority pricing. Majority pricing because first of all, our team are not incentivized on volume. None of the team -- none of the manager is incentivized on the volume. They are only incentivized on value growth. So that's the hem. And this is why we have been able to reduce the natural resources consumption roughly by minus 10% over the first semester. Because the new logic of our target definition is strong incentive on the financial ratio for all business units, means EBITDA, return on capital employed, and free cash flow generation. On the other hand, we force them on reducing their carbon footprint. So we put carbon cutoff for the majority of the unit. So the double constraints of improving your profit, while in the meantime reducing your carbon footprint does not allow to think in growth in volume. You need to make sure that your economical model, your customers and product portfolio will fit both aspects, profitability increase and carbon emission reduction. This is the E3 model that we are populating everywhere in the company and that's for the moment, running very, very well.
Akash Gupta
analystAnd my final question is on this fire safety cable. Thank you for giving this additional information on the margin profile. Can you say what is the penetration of this fire safety cable in your Usages segment today? And when we look at the medium-term potential, let's say, in 3 or 5 years, what penetration do you see down the line?
Christopher Guérin
executiveIt's about -- roughly today, we are at 15% overall of our revenue. And we have a compound annual growth that we foresee around 13% to 16% depending on the area. I remind you that in Europe, it has been forced by regulations. New build, new construction build requires HFFR product, so fire safety proof. It's coming up as well in South America. It will come up as well in North America a bit later. So today, the market for fire safety is about EUR 3 billion, and we expect this market to reach EUR 9 billion overall in 2030 worldwide.
Operator
operatorAnd we're moving on to our next questioner, which is Miguel Borrega from BNP Paribas Exane.
Miguel Nabeiro Ensinas Serra Borrega
analystA couple of questions from me. First, on your guidance. I remember you saying that you're assuming a complete reversal of the cyclical or conjunctural tailwinds in 2023. Margins that actually went up sequentially for Usages & Distribution. So I would assume some conjunctural effects. But when I look at your bridge on Slide 19, there's a negative effect from the conjunctural effect, negative EUR 8 million. So just wanted to confirm, conjunctural is now coming down and you still expect the remaining EUR 53 million to come in the second half of the year, because last year, the positive effect was EUR 61 million. So are you expecting EUR 53 million down in the second half?
Jean-Christophe Juillard
executiveSo Miguel, yes, I mean, definitely. First of all, let's talk 2 seconds about first half. So we had a first quarter line with 2022, meaning extremely strong in terms of volume and pricing in all of the regions of the world for Usages. Then we started to see a decline in the second quarter. Hence, there's a slight negative number that you see on the bridge in the slide. We've seen so far the volume decreasing. If I take an example, for instance, for North America, and Canada mainly, where we've seen and we've been reporting in 2022, very strong volume and pricing. We see, for instance, that the volume in Usages in North America in the second quarter declined 38%. And if you look on the quarter-to-quarter from Q1 to Q2, 36%. So definitely, a quite strong decrease in terms of volume. However, I will mitigate that a little bit because the level was so high, just to give you information, which it was 80% above the normalized level of 2019, if we exclude 2020 for COVID reasons. So we continue despite the decrease in Q2, which is impressive in terms of number. We remain quite high and therefore, not knowing what will be Q3 and obviously, Q4, we have discounted that. So to answer your question, yes, it's not in the guidance for the second half, explaining why basically we see the second semester was much lower than the first semester. The second impact -- I talked about volume. The second important impact is obviously pricing because we had double effect of high volume and high prices. We have not yet touched the prices in Q2 despite the volume decrease. If the volume was going to continue to decrease, obviously, we will have to reduce prices as well to a certain level, despite we believe again that, thanks to our transformation, we can remain at a decent level of pricing, but we might have to touch prices as well. And therefore, pushing a little bit even further the decrease. So this is why, I mean, when we put our guidance together, as we have always done, and this is why we came favoring such a wide range in the guidance and maybe just the objective of converting conjunctural of '22 to structural for '23. That's what we're doing. We have just increased the guidance because, again, we had a very strong Q1. So that's the way we took a little bit of, I would say, cautiousness into our guidance, second half performance on Usages. But in Distribution, it is a little bit different because, again, we are a lot on frame agreements, which are giving us more visibility than Usages, and Distribution is doing very well, and we don't see necessarily the same, I would say, potential volatility on Usages in second half. But definitely, Usages, I mean, we don't know much further, I would say, the month of September right now.
Miguel Nabeiro Ensinas Serra Borrega
analystOkay. And then related to your guidance as well. So what changed essentially that led you to increase the guidance, because I noticed the EUR 7 million of share payments, share-based compensation taking out of the EBITDA, plus the EUR 20 million of additional costs. So basically, if you exclude that, that's EUR 27 million plus the integration of Reka, that the EUR 30 million you are increasing the guidance. So is that what explains the upgrade?
Christopher Guérin
executiveFirst of all, so the share-based plan, you're right. The EUR 20 million, no, because the EUR 20 million would have not been in EBITDA anyway. Again, before, we always treated it as restructuring, so it was not part of EBITDA. This is not the difference. This is just the same treatment that we always do. So we cannot take that as an explanation because it had not been part of EBITDA anyway. So the share price, yes, it is a difference. That's EUR 7 million. That's about EUR 17 million expected for the full year. The rest is basically the reason we increased the guidance again. It's because, first of all, we've had a strong Q1 in Low Voltage, very strong Q1 that we need to take into account in the first half result. The second part is definitely we signed EuroAsia, which gave us, obviously, very good news for our financial performance in the second half. And that came basically late into the semester, beginning of the second semester. Without EuroAsia, probably we would have not been as, I would say, excited in increasing the guidance to that level for the second half of the year. So EuroAsia is definitely a big contributor of the reason why we increased the guidance as well.
Miguel Nabeiro Ensinas Serra Borrega
analystThat's clear. And then on G&T, I understand the temporary effect in 2023. But you're now saying the margin guidance, EUR 17 million to EUR 24 million, will be essentially after 2026, which is kind of a change in what you said last year that from now on, the margins would be in that range. Is that because when you adjust for cost inflation, the projects that you execute until then will have a little bit more cost than you were expecting? And then kind of what confidence do you have that after 2026, it will still be between EUR 17 million and EUR 24 million. So what kind of protections are you having in that sense?
Christopher Guérin
executiveYes, Miguel, it's Chris. First, just to remind you that I say that everything that we are taking in the backlog is in the range from 17% to 24% EBITDA guidance, which is confirmed by the fact that 97% of our backlog is subsea based, but we still have legacy contracts that has been taken by the former team before us. So we are still executing projects that have been signed in 2018. We had as well a project in U.K. that we signed in 2020, with a massive part of civil work that has been impacted by the inflation. And we say that the margin guidance upgrade what we said is after 2025, starting in '26. But that's as well related to the backlog. The fact that our backlog is massively loaded with long distance offshore wind farm plus subsea interconnection drives ultimately with those, I would say, tunnels of EBITDA generation. Of course, you can have execution issue. What we have not modernized properly is the ramp-down of our Umbilical business, the difficulties of the ramp-up of building new factories in U.S., that's for sure that's impacting certainly a normalized EBITDA around 14%. But the backlog that we have today goes in that direction.
Jean-Christophe Juillard
executiveYes, I completely concur to that. I mean, I think with probably on our side the missed expectation impact, negative impact of the shutdown of the Umbilical in terms of turbulences into the Halden plant as well as difficult to ramp up the first contract in Halden in 2022, these we did not see. So to answer your question, the 17% to 24%, we definitely lost a year in doing that. We are more expecting first to do that beginning of 2025. We'll now talk about '26. So yes, we've lost a little bit of time due to, I would say, again, the unexpected situation in Halden due to the ramp-up and the impact of the Umbilical shutdown. so...
Christopher Guérin
executiveThat's a fundamental question, I mean, Miguel. And that's for sure. It's what we discussed with our Board of Directors as well, because it's not only an improvement of the margin through the backlog, it's as well a massive scaleup, not of Nexans only, but of the sector. Because when you think, the backlog of the 3 main players in that sector in 2019 was about EUR 5 billion and on the reach to EUR 20 billion to EUR 25 billion. So the backlog of the 3 main players has been multiplied by 5. So when you look at the G&T of Nexans, we were at EUR 600 million revenue. And now we'll be on the direction of EUR 1.5 billion revenue. It's a massive scaleup that requires as well to rethink the process, the standards, the routing, needs new skills. All this is briefly. I have not mentioned it and give me the opportunity to mention it, please. This is why we have announced as well a management change where we are very happy that Pascal Radue from GE Hydro joined Nexans, because he faced, in the last 20 years of his General Electric experience, those issues and he knows how to handle this massive scaleup. And Pascal will start on the 1st of September, supported by Vincent Dessale to make that change smooth in the coming years. But of course, it's the first time in the history that G&T has had such growth. And that's the fundamental change versus the last years.
Jean-Christophe Juillard
executiveYes. And when you look at the backlog today, I mean, the size of the backlog completely changed, obviously, like you said, Chris, moving from EUR 2 billion only 24 months ago to almost EUR 7 billion now. So it's a massive change with new capacity, with new vessel, with everything. And again, we have not foreseen necessarily the impact of the transformation. But when you look at the size of the backlog, it's not just the size of the backlog, it's also the complexity of the backlog. Instead of having 40 projects or 50 products in that backlog, we have now in that big backlog less than 10 projects. So the complexity reduction of the backlog and therefore, the execution issues we might be facing would be quite different and much better in the future than what it is today. But we are in this transformation period. And again, we've lost 1 year due to the issues on that. But when we look at the size of the backlog, the less complexity of backlog, the margin on the project we have on the backlog, this is why we are quite confident that the future years will show significant improvement in margins.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] And we're now moving on to Jean-Francois Granjon from ODDO BHF.
Jean-Francois Granjon
analystYes. A few questions from me. So the first one, could you come back on the margins expected for the G&T. So I understand that you are more optimistic for 2026 and above. But what do you expect for '24, '25? Do you expect a slight improvement compared with the current level reach for the first half. So do you expect some, I would say, probably more than 14% to 15% EBITDA margin for G&T? My second question concerns also the margin for the Distribution & Usages with a huge level reach for the H1. So do you consider that this level are sustainable for the coming years? And I would ask the other question afterwards.
Jean-Christophe Juillard
executiveSo yes, I will take the first question on G&T. So definitely, G&T, we've seen improvements in the second half that will improve the margin versus what we've seen in the first semester for the reason I described and the contribution of EuroAsia. We see obviously further improvement in 2024 to reach again the level above 17% in '26, and that will be gradual from '24 and '25 to reach that, and we see basically 2 points improvement to get to the level.
Christopher Guérin
executiveRegarding Distribution, yes, we consider this sustainable, but you can have some ups and downs in the organic growth, which is linked to the frame agreement call-off on the phasing of installation. You know, right now we are in a favorable Q3 phasing of installation. And we have a strong winter, maybe Q4 will be a bit lower in Distribution. But what we can say is that volume and price have been agreed for the next 2 years. So you should not have massive change in Distribution. So it's a very resilient business, and we are very happy. And it is what I told you, I want this business to shift to a double-digit horizon. And this is what we did. And now that means that we will be ready to make some further investments to support the growth in that sector. Usages. You still have a mix of structural transformation, but as well some conjunctural effect. Difficult to tell you exactly what will be the percentage normalized in second semester in '24, but we want to remain in the range between 12% to 15% in average even if there is a downturn.
Jean-Francois Granjon
analystOkay. Other question regarding the financial costs. We saw a strong increase for the first half to which EUR 38 million. So what do you expect [indiscernible] increase for the rate. What do you expect for the full year? Another question regarding the CapEx. Could you just come back on the CapEx expected for this year? And what do you expect for 2024 for all the CapEx for all the group?
Jean-Christophe Juillard
executiveYes. So I will start with the CapEx question for '24. So in 2024, we'll have no more remaining strategic CapEx on the Halden extension, but we will have the new vessel we just announced. So that will amount about to EUR 140 million. And then after that, we'll have about EUR 200 million of, I would say, maintenance CapEx. So that gets us to a total of about EUR 360 million for total CapEx envelope for the year 2024, and then it will start to reduce. For the operational financial charges. So basically, financial charges definitely increased significantly due to -- I would say part of that is one-off, and part of that is, I would say, coming from the interest increase, interest hike. We have about EUR 14 million additional cost coming from interest increases. And also, as I said, 1 of the fact that we issued a new bond and then we repaid the old bond and there was a period of time where we had double interest accounts. And that's for the most part. We have a little bit of ForEx impact as well into this number. So I would expect the second half of the year to be slightly below due to the fact we will not have double the bond's cost, that's about EUR 30 million, I would say, in terms of [indiscernible] for the second half, that would give us about EUR 65 million to EUR 70 million of financial charges for the year.
Jean-Francois Granjon
analystOkay. Perfect. And just 2 last questions. The first one concerns the backlog you have mentioned on the press release, on the presentation. The backlog evolution for Distribution & Usages compared to the previous presentation. So could you give us some color about the trend for the backlog for Distribution & Usages. And the last question, regarding 2024 the plan -- your plan between '21, '24 presented a few years ago. Do you confirm the target between 10% to 12% EBITDA margin expected at the end of the plan in 2024.
Jean-Christophe Juillard
executiveSo I will take the second question, the question on the target. So we are already there because we just -- we are at 10.7%. And again, we continue to see improvement in all our businesses except for G&T for the first half. But again, explained the reason and why now we are confident that we will recover gradually, but we will recover. And then the fantastic transformation in the Usages & Distribution. So definitely, unless there is a significant recession next year that basically drops everyone's top line to a very low level. But I would say, in current environment, we are very optimistic that we will be well-positioned inside that range of 10% to 12% next year, yes.
Christopher Guérin
executiveYes. I'm not going -- we don't give specific numbers regarding the backlog on D&U, but what I can tell you is Distribution is based on frame agreements and the consumption of the volume signed in the frame agreement is growing much faster than what we can deliver. So demand remains extremely strong in all regions, in North America and Europe, specifically, and as well Africa. Regarding Usages, it's difficult to predict. The only thing I can tell you is that, as I mentioned at the beginning is we see a degradation of demand in North America, part of South America and Australia, a slight slowdown of Europe, but we see as well that the new permits in Europe are down 15%. So that means that Q3 and Q4 will not be fantastic. And a part of it is compensated by a very strong demand in Africa and Lebanon. Cannot give you more than that for the moment. Thank you, Jean-Francois. I think that was the last question. So we wish you all a very great summer break, and for the ones that we did not see or not meet, in the coming days during our road show. Thank you for your attention.
Operator
operatorThank you. That concludes today's conference, and you may now disconnect.
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