Nexity SA (NXI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good evening, everyone. Thank you for joining us on this webcast for the release of our 2025 half year results. As usual, I am joined this evening by Jean-Claude Bassien, Deputy CEO of the Group; and Pierre Henry Pouchelon, Group Secretary General in charge of Finance. I will share with you the key highlights of our H1 results, and then Jean-Claude and Pierre-Henry will go into detail on commercial activity and financial results. And of course, as always, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end of our presentation. Let's get started with the key takeaways of this release, which clearly marks a turning point. Firstly, a turning point in our return to profitability with a positive current operating profit for New Nexity in H1. So plus EUR 6 million versus minus EUR 54 million last year, in line with our planned profit margins for residential real estate are being rebuilt as planned, service properties are driving the group's growth and profitability. The implementation of the announced savings plan is progressing faster than expected. We had forecasted EUR 100 million in savings by 2026 with 75% activated by 2025. But in reality, we will achieve 92%. Secondly, on business activity, again, no surprises here. The market is as we expected at the start of the year, and we are walking the talk. Our supply for sale at nearly 5,300 units, is well aligned with the market reality. Supply is currently being rebuilt in line with new market conditions, with an initial increase this quarter. Clearly, business activity is being driven by first-time buyers, with double-digit growth since Q3 2024, and a 45% increase in first-time buyers in Q2 2025. Several factors contribute to this dynamic, and Jean-Claude will circle back to that. Notably, the PTZ zero interest loan scheme, initially intended for dense urban zones, has been expanded since April 1 to include rural or less populated areas and single-family homes. Our strong commercial activity from banks is the second factor and our work on supply and financing solutions with the crescendo offer targeting monthly payments equivalent to rent. As of the end of June, first-time buyers represent 35% of our commercial mix, an all-time high for Nexity. And this shows we have the trifecta; price, product and financing for this type of customers who are extremely active on the market. Another positive factor for H1, the favorable pricing effect, which reflects a strong price performance. As expected with the end of the Pinel scheme, individual private investors now account for only 23% of our sales, down from 42% before the crisis, mainly student residences, which are very popular among investors because those are low cost and provide a good return. Thirdly, we have further secured our financial structure through to 2028. The 2025 bond maturities, and you've asked us a lot of questions about that have been fully repaid, totaling EUR 325 million. Financing is secured through to 2028. The deleveraging trajectory continues with consistently strict management of working capital requirements, which is paying off, as you will see, along with the finalization of the divestment plan for property management, including the start of exclusive negotiations for the sale of Accessite earlier this week. As you know, new Nexity also aims to operate in strategic areas with high land potential while enhancing dynamic regions. That's our history. That's our DNA. That's our expertise. We've always been a developer and promoter, with expertise in regenerating complex sites and revitalizing city fringes, and we have the most expensive and relevant territorial network in the market. In total, we have 1,200,000 square meters under development in urban regeneration and brownfield redevelopment, including the Carrefour partnership, making Nexity by far the leader in urban regeneration in France, which is a key market today and in the future. A quick word about our market. The recovery of the cycle isn't here yet, but we're clearly seeing a turning point. First, interest rates are stabilizing as expected between 3% and 3.5%, depending on the case, and this is positive as it puts an end to customer hesitation. Construction costs are beginning to decline. Housing demand is clearly increasing. And lastly, the PTC zero- interest loan scheme, which has direct impacts on our H1 figures for first-time buyers and also on our subdivision or land development activities. I'll now hand over to Jean-Claude, who will go into more detail on the commercial activity of our operations in the first half.

Thank you, Véronique. Good evening, everyone. Regarding our commercial activity for H1, let me start with our residential offering. Our supply for sale comes to about 5,300 units, a 20% drop compared to end of June 2024, and this is due to continued selective development and supply adjustment efforts carried out in 2024. This supply is well aligned with current market conditions today, and we're seeing a positive turning point in Q2. The supply rose slightly by plus 2% compared with Q1 2025, marking the start of its rebuilding tailored to market conditions. Total bookings are down 15%. Obviously, this reflects the reduced supply for sale and as expected, the end of the Pinel scheme for retail sales. Talking about retail sales. In H1, we're seeing retail sales being down 13% in volume, but they have clearly improved in Q2, minus 2% in Q2 versus minus 23% in Q1, and they're down only 6% in value. And this shows that our pricing has held up well following the 2024 adjustment. We'll circle back to our performance in retail sales later. Regarding bulk sales as well, maintaining volumes remains a challenge through year-end as expected. And as you know, the seasonal aspect is slightly different for bulk sales, we're seeing an acceleration around the end of the year. Noteworthy, at the end of June, we signed a package of over 1,000 units with CDC Habitat, which will be booked as reservations progressively as final permits are obtained. In the commercial real estate sector, the market remains at the bottom of the cycle. Office take-up in the Paris region continues to decline in H1, while the supply of office space is increasing. So unsurprisingly, our order intake is low and happens almost entirely outside the Paris region. The total backlog amounts to EUR 4 billion. This is stable compared to Q1 2025, and this represents the equivalent of 1.6 years of activity. 46% of this is secured through finalized sales. And this volume does not yet include the initial contributions from the Carrefour partnership. When the time comes, this partnership will fuel the backlog. Finally, in service properties, all activity indicators are positive with high occupancy rates, growing portfolios and highly accretive profitability levels. Now let's zoom in on the different aspects. Let's start with this slide. You can see a data series since 2000 on the issuance of building permits. So several findings here. Over the past 12 months, if we compare with the 10-year average, we're seeing a 20% decline, which is very significant. And there's a low point in February this year. And the chart also confirms the impact of municipal elections. You may know this, but this bears repetition. On average, we're talking a 15% drop every time there's a municipal election. In other words, the issuance of permits is indeed a source of uncertainty for H2, and it has been factored into our conservative forecast. Let's get back to our commercial business, supply for sale. It is aligned with current market conditions. Why? If we look at the supply for sale to total market ratio, we're seeing that this ratio has returned to 2019 levels, about 5%. So the ratio is now normalized. Our time to market is about 5 months. This means that it's back to precrisis levels. Here again, our apparatus has become normalized. Hard stock or inventory remains limited, around 100 units, so it's well under control. And this half year, we're seeing a drop of about 26% in value terms compared with H1 2024. The supply has begun to rebuild in Q2 for the first time since 2022. At last, it's about 88% and located in high demand zones. So location is one of our key selectivity criteria. Regarding retail sales, we're seeing 2 trends. Firstly, a decline in private investors. That's something we expected, and that's due to the end of the Pinel scheme. And the second very favorable trend is a strong momentum among first-time buyers, up 34% in H1, including over 45% in Q2 after plus 23% in Q1. And you can see this a very favorable trend on the screen. So what is this due to? Well, effective product offerings and marketing campaigns, as you know, those incorporate innovative and attractive financing solutions for our customers to support access to credit. We have an offer called credit equal rent. Also, we're seeing strong momentum in product launches, 41 launches in H1 with dynamic sales rates from the start. And of course, the environment. Loan rates have stabilized around 3%. And as Véronique rightly said, the extension of the PTZ scheme across the entire country. Overall, the commercial mix does not reflect the year-end mix because we're expecting an acceleration for bulk sales by the end of the year. So we're still waiting for the split between bulk sales and retail sales. We're expecting a 60%-40% split. So what's interesting is the noticeable shift in the retail sales mix. Before the crisis, Nexity generated about 63% of its business from retail sales. Investors, private investors accounted for 43% and first-time buyers, the rest. And now the mix has shifted. Investors now account only for 23% of the mix and first-time buyers have risen to a record high, 35%. As I said before, we're seeing an excellent trend when it comes to first-time buyers, and this is due to commercial launches in H1. And we are extremely proud of our successful projects done recently, particularly the launch in Dunkirk, 55% of units sold within 2 days. And this shows that when you have the right product in the right place at the right price, then time to market is short, and we're doing well in terms of selling our stock. There's another factor you need to remember, our ability to offer packages that include attractive financing solutions. And as we said, for Q1, our [Foreign Language], our rent equals loan payment plan is very successful. On this slide, you can see our ability to provide investors with alternative solutions to the Pinel scheme. Obviously, the volumes are very different. We're talking niche markets, but we are able to provide managed or unmanaged nonprofessional furnished rentals as well as other solutions. Last point. Regarding our serviced properties. This good performance that I referred to before, what is it based on? Well, the steady growth in our portfolio. So co-working, 11 new sites in 2024, 1 more site in 2025 for a total of nearly 160,000 square meters under management. Also the opening of 3 new student residences over 1 year, bringing the portfolio to over 17,000 units across 54 cities. And the second really important factor in terms of economic performance are very high occupancy rates, 97% in student housing and 86% in co-working spaces. Lastly, our distribution business. and we're very happy about that. Our distribution business is regaining commercial momentum, and this shows our ability to adapt to an environment where the P&L scheme is no longer available. So excluding the Pinel scheme, reservations or bookings in the distribution segment are up by 3%. Now I hand over to Pierre Henry Pouchelon, who will provide details on the financial and nonfinancial performance for the period.

Thank you, Jean-Claude. Good evening, everyone. So this slide summarizes all our key indicators for H1, which I will now go over one by one. Let's start with revenue. As of June 30, 2025, revenue stands at EUR 1.3 billion, down 12% on a like-for-like scope basis. Residential real estate, which accounts for 82% of total revenue, is down 5% due to the activities carryover effect. In this presentation, just on the right, we clarify the contribution of the different vintages that is operations by launch year to both revenue and operating profit. Now for residential revenue, so 5 vintages, we have the 2024 and 2025 launches, which, as you know, are de facto already aligned with the minimum profitability threshold and marking consistent exit price of build cost assumptions that makes up 30% of total residential revenue recognized using the percentage rec completion method. Now revenue from commercial real estate fell as expected by 83% compared to Q1 2024 due to the delivery of large-scale projects throughout 2024, so La Garenne-Colombes and our head office in Reiwa and also limited backlog replenishment over the last 2 years in the market environment that Jean-Claude has described. So revenue from service properties continues to grow at a double-digit pace with notable increases in both service properties and distribution, which, as Jean-Claude mentioned, has regained sales momentum since the end of 2024, now visible in H1 revenue. Before we look at the operating income from the semester, let me look at a number of things. Operating income enables us to look at the return of operational profitability relying on 3 things. First of all, the reconstruction of the margin for residential with new operations since 2024 on target margins, which takes into account the cost of the works and the market price for 2025. And this is increasing in our statements and now account about 35% of our operating income. Second leverage, improving the profitability of serviced properties, which account for 75% of operating income on S1 and operating margins at 12.5% and also the savings plans for EUR 20 million over H1, but we'll come back to that. So here, you have the savings plan, EUR 100 million by 2026 for full year effect, that is what we have given undertakings on. It includes 3 things. First of all, payroll, and that's the largest element, of course, with an overall impact at end of H1 '25 to the tune of EUR 52 million, overheads at EUR 16 million and real estate at EUR 4 million. At the end of H1, we will have completed 72%. By the end of the year, 92%, meaning that we are ahead of time compared to what we'd mentioned at the end of last year. We were expecting 75%, but this is mainly due to real estate and overheads. The operating income is therefore EUR 6 million. which is a EUR 60 million improvement over H1 '24. Let's look at how we can understand this. First of all, EUR 10 million fewer dropping or abandonment costs than the promotional margin to the tune of EUR 20 million, I mentioned that earlier. The savings plan worth EUR 20 million and also the improvement of earnings for serviced properties to the tune of EUR 15 million, meaning that we admittedly have an exceptional expense of EUR 10 million related to the streamlining of the brand portfolio outside Paris. You'll remember that for 2024, it included the capital gains for the PMI, the Property Management for Individuals to the tune of EUR 193 million. Working capital requirements after Taxes at EUR 856 million at the 30th of June, that's up EUR 24 million. For residential promotion, it's down EUR 90 million, which is a good performance. It was at a high point on the 30th of June, which means that we have indeed focused on receivables from customers, buying plots of land and the first few deeds. Let me mention also an international impact with the launch of a first development program in Italy. Net debt, EUR 388 million, which is EUR 68 million over the first semester. As I said, it is an improvement. There was a high point at the end of the semester, but we have done a number of things such as synchronizing, calling in expenses, better recovery of receivables and divestments to the tune of EUR 29 million. The guidance to year's end was EUR 380 million, and we can confirm this. And you'll remember Angelotti, meaning that there should be free cash flow of at least EUR 70 million at the end of H2. Now on the structure of net financial debt. Gross net, EUR 1 billion, a drop of EUR 300 million. We paid back EUR 321 million in bonds. ORNANE 2018 was paid back early March and Euro PP 2017 at the end of June for EUR 120 million roughly. We have solid liquidity, EUR 528 million as at the 30th of June, including the working capital that we haven't drawn to the tune of EUR 438 million. On the right, you see the maturity of the debt as covered by the working capital requirement, looking at all the way to 2028. All the lenders of the group have supported us in this, and we'd like to thank them for their support. As concerns to nonfinancial indicators, we have made public the Impact 2030 at the AGM in May. relating to, in fact, our carbon strategy, 1.5 degrees and validated and certified. And this means that we are focusing on climate change, water, circularity, amongst other things, under 3 pillars. As at the end of the month of June, things look good on all 3 pillars. First of all, we're 10% above the new expectations under the new regulation on carbon footprint. We are, however, not letting up, and we are working on this issue, looking at modular wood, low carbon and shorter work periods. On the second pillar, we're also innovating with an innovation from SA, meaning that we can reduce our water use in what we do, while at the same time having enough water to look after parks and gardens. And lastly, as we've seen, we have urban regeneration plans. That is in line with what we have stated, hoping, therefore, that by 2030, this should account for 20% of our sales. So indeed, the entire group is involved supporting and managing change. Let me now give the floor back to Véronique.

Yes. Thank you, Pierre Henry. Thank you, Jean-Claude. Let me wrap up looking at the forecast and outlook. Of course, in H2, we will go on working on rebuilding our margins and deleveraging because that is vital. Our focus is to have a leverage ratio below 3x 3.5. As we said, we have looked at our -- using our liquidity window, as we said in May, so as to get 80% of Angelotti by the 30th of September, meaning that we will then have to take over the entire capital by the end of next year. This will mean EUR 45 million in debt -- net debt over the year, including EUR 20 million in cash. Lastly, as we know, the economic and political situation globally is very unstable. However, we still hope to restore profitability. That is to say, a positive IFRS operating income in the New Nexity scope by the end and also excluding divestments. And IFRS, EUR 380 million is and remains our target. Thank you very much, and we'll happily answer your questions if you have any.

[Operator Instructions] First question, Ebrahim Homani, CIC.

Well done for what you've done. My first question is on the price on residential, the price effect. 3%, how do you explain it? Is this something to do with a mix? Or do you expect that to be reduced in H2? And if that is indeed the case and if the cost basis is stable, what kind of recurring operating income do you expect to get? Can we expect a substantial improvement or something fairly stable in terms of costs? You tell me.

Well, let me try and answer on the price effect. We're talking about, in fact, 4%. Given what Jean-Claude said, this will be whittled away with the mix, but we also have all the work on refocusing on residential, detailed residential. We took the prices down 4% to 6% to offset the drop in purchasing power of our customers, interest rates, inflation, et cetera. And that's how we manage to sell off our products in a reasonable time line. As you know, there is insufficient supply and prices are not affected by a downward pressure. On the recurring operating income, you know what the issue is. You have the onboarded margins. That is to say those prior to 2024 that have been refocused, therefore, we have a low profitability, but we have to stick with these margins until the end of the programs. And we have to initiate and break the ground on new operations and then sell them. And to be able to sell them, we have to have come to the end of -- to full validity of the building permits, which is why we have -- we can only give guidance without actually giving specific figures. We'll see what happens in H2.

Yes. Well, Pierre-Henri, I think I'd add to what you've said that we -- this is only the first year of us reworking our margins after the end of the P&L scheme. So we'll have to see how we do that.

No further questions for the moment.

I'm not sure if we have any audio questions, maybe webcast ones. When will you have finished on international operations? Well, on international operations, the losses are related to the structural costs of international business. It's not related to operations. So we should be on track by the end of the year. As concerns the extinction the wind-down operations, we will -- we should have finished with the 3 operations in Italy by the end of this year. We still have business in Germany. We are working on selling the land we hold, but we should have finished and done it by the end of 2026.

The revolving credit facility is, in fact, being worked on. As you know, it's not just to refund and pay back our bonds. It is also to release operational cash flow. As I said, we're expecting more than EUR 70 million free cash flow in H2, and this will increase in the next fiscal years given the rebuilding and the work done on our margins, and we'll have more flexibility across the group, thanks to it.

Another question for Mr. Homani.

Well, on working capital requirements, I see you've worked hard and managed to look at the payables and the receivables pretty effectively. Your change in working capital requirement over H1 seems slightly negative. How do you explain that?

Well, the working capital requirement is down EUR 19 million on residential, so it's improving. The situation is worsening slightly because of international business and more specifically because of the Italian project. Quite simply because in Italy, things are done a little differently to what we do in France. You only book the amounts at final delivery. So there's a spike in working capital requirements. However, working capital requirement on residential is down EUR 19 million, which is very good because on the first half of the year, historically, we've experienced quite significant swings. Admittedly, the business wasn't quite the same, but you can see what the position often is in H1.

The new programs account for 35%, but generated only 20% for 2025?

Yes, because we actually launched more than expected. So at the moment, we're delivering on the fact that gradually, we are replacing -- we are phasing out the old offer and phasing in the new offer. We need to keep an eye on this in H2, and we look at the weight of those transactions in H1. And by the end of the year, we will see how we go about securing the permits. But I think we are on a good trend.

Regarding goodwill, that will be -- that issue is largely documented in the URD at June 30 and December 31. And obviously, it's been the subject of a very detailed review by our statutory auditors. So we are extremely sensitive when it comes to goodwill and our elbow room is significant throughout our activities. And this means we're able to bear out the goodwill as stated in our balance sheet with a weighted average cost of capital of about 8.4% and they're sensitive when it comes to margin rates and growth rates. And this means we have sufficient elbow room to recognize that goodwill.

I'm reading the question. Booking residual costs, let me read this. Have you booked residual costs for adapting the offer in H1 2025? Could you please remind us of the amount for the same period last year?

Yes. Regarding H1 2024, obviously, we had project abandonment costs to the tune of EUR 30 million in terms of recurring operating profit.

On guidance, there's no guidance when it comes to working capital requirement. But of course, because we are confirming the guidance under EUR 380 million as a result, this is how I can tell you that our free cash flow target is at least EUR 170 million, and this obviously includes EBITDA. EBITDA will continue to improve in H2 and of course, the working capital shift, which will continue to improve. So working capital requirement will continue to go down relative to June 30, so in H2. Are there any other questions?

No more questions on the call.

Very well then thank you so much for attending this call. Anne-Sophie and Pierre Henry are on hand should you require additional information. Have a great evening, everyone, and thank you for being with us today. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]