Nido Education Limited (NDO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and thank you for joining Nido Education Limited's 2024 Half Year results. As a company, we remain focused on our purpose, which is to support teachers to rise and make a positive impact on the lives of children. It is through our people delivering quality education that we achieve financial performance. In terms of the overview of our performance in the first half, we achieved an EBITDA of $7.5 million with consistent week-on-week revenue growth. Our outlook for the full year is an EBITDA of $23.2 million with our 52 centers performing in line with expectations. We will see $3.5 million of center establishment fees from our incubator move from CY '24 into CY '25 due to delay of 14 centers opening. We have 4 centers that are forecast to meet our acquisition metrics prior December 2024 and expect they will be acquired by Nido this calendar year. Looking forward, we expect to be paying a dividend in the order of $0.058, which is a 5.8% yield on our issue price.

Thanks, Mathew. I'll now walk through the results. The table on Page 7 shows the performance for the first half with financials presented before AASB 16, the accounting standard for leasing. We are pleased to announce first half EBITDA of $7.5 million and profit before tax of $7 million. This reflects the ongoing execution of our strategy and positions Nido well for the second half and beyond. Center-based revenue of $74 million is nearly 1.5x higher than last year and center-based EBITDA of $12 million is around 10x higher. The growth rate is driven by acquisitions made last year and the ongoing maturity of many of our newer centers. Support office costs are presented net of management fees and have increased by $1.7 million to $5.2 million. The higher cost base was forecast and is driven by additional Board and governance costs relating to being a public company and there being reduced management fees as a result of us now owning centers that paid us fees last year. Establishment fees are charged to our incubator partners for developing and opening their centers. Four centers were opened in the first half, generating revenue of $0.8 million. We call this revenue stream out separately as the amount of revenue recognized each reporting period may vary depending on the timing of center openings. Center revenue is around $74 million and center EBITDA is $12 million at a margin of 16%. There were around 461,000 of days of learning or days sold, which represents an occupancy rate of 77%. The daily fee net of discounts averaged $157 per day and was higher than last year due to seasonal fee increases. Center-based wages represented around 60% of revenue and improved throughout the half to 55% as a result of disciplined roster. Turning to financing. Nido is carrying minimal net debt at $1.2 million and continues to repay the drawn facility to minimize interest costs. We expect to have repaid the facility in the next couple of months, further increasing the debt funding available for acquisitions up to $55 million.

In terms of our operating profile, we're currently managing 99 centers with 52 owned. Our average daily fee is $171 after discounts for employees and holiday discounts to families. With 64% of our childcare revenue coming by the federal government's family income means tested platform of childcare subsidies under the childcare subsidy system. In terms of revenue growth and efficiencies, as you can see from the graph on the right, we recruited heavily in the first quarter with real rate wages being higher than they are now, even with the 4.25% increase in July from the adjustment to the award wages and the superannuation increase. The sector has seen a softening of enrollments over the last 9 weeks, which we believe is a result of general cost of living pressures and continued working from home, and the team has done a wonderful job to adjust wages in line with market conditions. We have seen over the last couple of weeks, inquiries increase and occupancy start to rebound again. In terms of our people, the graph on the right shows the resumes we received month-on-month. And having come out of a constrained market, we had more resumes than we had seen for years in the first quarter. This is why we chose to recruit quite heavily because we didn't know how long this would last. Normally, we would see consistent week-on-week occupancy growth this year but it was flatter than normal. So recruiting ahead of enrollment has impacted our EBITDA in the first half, particularly in the first quarter in the order of $1 million to $1.5 million. As I said before, wages have now been rightsized but remain a constant focus for us. So in terms of the full year forecast, we are forecasting EBITDA of $23.2 million. Center performance and net support office costs are in line with the prospectus. EBITDA is $3.5 million lower than the prospectus due to timing with 14 center openings and associated fees moving to 2025. At the bottom line, forecast NPAT is $20.2 million, $3.3 million ahead of the pro forma forecast. This reflects lower interest costs and the forecast utilization of tax losses now available. We have forecast a dividend of $0.058 per share payable in March 2025, subject to audit and Board approval. The payment of the dividend will not impact of Nido's acquisition strategy. In terms of center performance, we are forecasting $21.2 million EBITDA for the second half. Key performance drivers include 83% average occupancy, average daily fees of $170 and a wage to revenue ratio of 55%. I'll now provide an update on incubation and Nido's growth strategy. The chart here shows the current spot occupancy for 10 centers that we expect may reach acquisition metrics by June next year. And there are a number of services that are growing closer to the average 6-month target of 80%, and we expect up to 4 of these may be acquired by the end of this year. The delays we have seen in construction certainly easing and pricing is moderating. The sourcing of trades are improving, and we believe this is partly due to residential starts being down. As an example, the March quarter-on-quarter year-on-year is down 13.5% in terms of new residential buildings under construction. We're seeing an unprecedented number of potential childcare sites being coming through to Nido at the moment with 100 to 200 sites a month. Whilst we're still only 10 or so are passing our rigorous assessment criteria, we expect this will provide Nido with a strong pipeline into the latter part of 2025 and 2026. Nido has a unique growth model. Purpose-built childcare centers only acquired high occupancy and profitability under a call option. We have a pipeline to deliver considerable growth, particularly over the next 5 years, and we have the confident and capable team to deliver on it. I'll pass back to our host and open it up to those on the call for any questions you may have.

Your first question comes from Ben Wilson from Wilsons Advisory.

Just checking you can hear me okay.

Yes, we can hear you.

Yes. Great. Look, first question just about occupancy. I see your revised full year forecast of 80%. I imagine that implies probably around about 83% for the second half. Just wondering if you could sort of confirm that or correct that. And just your sort of thoughts about your comfort in achieving that. I know you've said that you've seen a bit of a tick up just in the last couple of weeks.

Yes. Look, we're receiving over 400 inquiries every week at the moment. And we have capacity to take on those enrollments, obviously. In some services it is not. But -- so we're confident in achieving that sort of 80% average. Noting that our fees on the half year are up around 8% to 9% on the first half. So at 80% average occupancy, we still achieve our prospectus guidance. The only miss for us is the delay in the services opening in the establishment fees of $3.5 million but that's merely a delay. So it's a timing issue that goes into CY '25 as opposed to a miss. And obviously, that's a macro event controlled by supply chain and the availability of trades that's delayed the construction of those services.

Maybe just moving on to the development pipeline then. The sense I've got, I guess, from talking to you guys a little bit is that there's probably a bit of a knock-on effect here. So the 14 delayed centers will probably be open next year but the ones that had been originally slated for calendar year '25 might in turn be delayed a little bit. Just wondering if you can give us a sense for when or what year the delay could be fully caught up. I'm conscious that the heat has come out of the residential construction market, which should be positive for you guys. Do you think you can catch up the delay fully by the end of calendar '26? Or is it just too hard to say?

Look, I think '25 -- end of '25, what we had slated for the end of '25 coming out of the ground has probably pushed a little bit into '26. But we expect we'll then have a bumper year in 2026 with it all sort of turning back to normal then. Historically, Nido would develop sort of 15 to 20 services prior to us listing and entering into the arrangement we have with our incubator partners. So we expect that to return to normal sort of at the back end of '25, but really 2026 will be the bumpy year for us to have establishment fees.

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Tom Tweedie from MA Moelis Australia.

A couple of questions from me. The first one, just on the industry level data that we're seeing at the moment, it should have showing new supply growth is slowing across the industry more broadly. I was keen to just see if that's reflective of what you see in the states and areas you're exposed to and what your kind of expectation for industry supply growth of new centers is over the next 6 to 12 months just from a more industry perspective?

Yes, we are seeing delays and slowing down of supply. And we've also seen the desire for people to open up greenfield sites is dissipating a little bit, which is why we're now getting presented up to 200 sites a month because other tenants are choosing not to develop childcare centers. There's a lot of uncertainty in the market in terms of where the sector was heading. And I think what's happened with the federal government announcing the wage subsidy and the $3.8 billion we're looking to fund in terms of a wage increase for sector employees will actually sort of just have probably a number of people come back into developing centers. Childcare is an absolutely critical infrastructure for the nation. It's what allows people to enter the workforce and become taxpayers. So it's a key productivity driver. And having the federal government sort of reaffirm their commitment and their understanding of the importance of the sector, I think, will sort of alleviate some of the concerns that people had out there in terms of developing new centers. But it will take a while for those people to come back and you're probably looking for a slowdown of supply over the next 2 or so years, which is obviously good for the likes of Nido.

Yes, brilliant. And that actually touches on my second question. I was going to ask just around the recent legislative proposals that should be a positive for attracting labor to the workforce. Obviously, in those harder to recruit roles and the teachers and schools you may be potentially competing with for labor force. What -- given your experience, what's your expectation in terms of when we see some easing or some increases in applications as a result of this legislation? Obviously, day 1, 1st of January '25, it's probably not going to see a step up but what's the timing of that in your experience?

Look, we've already seen a considerable lift in job applicants already. There's certain areas in terms of the early childhood teachers where we still struggle. But across the board, we've seen a dramatic increase in the number of resumes coming through, which is what precipitated us recruiting aggressively in the first quarter ahead of what we thought would be a normal seasonal occupancy. That proved not to be the case. But the first flow of payments will come from 1 December, we understand. We'll be looking to pass the 10% grant on to our employees. And there's a number of people that have left the sector, a number of people left the sector and gone into aged care or back into the school environment. So we do expect that we'll start to see an immediate effect now that we'll start to see sort of resume sort of increase and applicants in those ECT and hard-to-fill roles start to increase on the back of knowing that this is coming as of 1st of December.

Brilliant. And just one final one for me. Obviously, in terms of support costs, you flagged what's driving that in calendar year '24. I just want to think calendar year '25, what are you expecting? Or what should we be thinking in terms of growth there for support costs for the business or the group?

Yes. Tom, I think we'll see a slight increase but it will be fairly marginal. We expect next year to be pretty consistent with '24.

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Cameron Bell from Canaccord Genuity.

I was just wondering, so that the change in your occupancy expectations for the calendar year, how much of that do you think is due to your change in discounting policy?

About 2.6% or 2.6 points came in because of our trading discount policy. But that change in discount policy also has led to a change in our base fee. So what we gave up in occupancy, we got in the base fee going up by that 8% to 9% from the first half to the second half.

Okay. So the 82% down to the 80%, basically the majority -- like 2.6%, but only half a year. Like is that how we should think about that?

Yes. Yes.

Okay. And then I guess the follow-on from that is, can you maybe step us through like the immediate impact is fees up, occupancy down. Longer term, does the removal of that discounting policy enhance your profitability and growth?

It does. So it's probably about a $2 million impact in the first half sort of going into CY '25, there's probably maybe about $3 million to $3.5 million increase in profitability due to our change in the discounting policy. And our discounting policy now is more aligned with the rest of the sector.

Your next question comes from Ben Wilson from Wilsons Advisory.

Just a small one for me to finish up, guys. Just on tax losses, Tom, it looks like there's probably a little bit more that you'd be able to utilize, say, in the first half of '25 after sort of utilizing more of your tax loss balance in the second half of this year. Is that correct? Or how should we think about that?

Yes. There are 2 components to the tax losses, Ben. There's Nido losses. And those will be fully utilized by the end of this year. And there will be a small amount of losses acquired from the AES entity that we acquired at IPO, and we'll continue to utilize a fraction of those into the next couple of years or so. But it's safe to say that we'll be paying a corporate tax rate of around 30% sort of from '25 onwards.

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Edwards for closing remarks.

Look, thank you for joining this morning. We very much appreciate it. We realize it's a very busy time with full year results out, and we look forward to catching up with you all on the road over the next week or so.