Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

February 19, 2020

New York Stock Exchange US Consumer Staples Food Products conference_presentation 50 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Andrew Lazar

analyst
#1

Next up on the CAGNY stage, we have Nomad Foods. Over the last several years, Nomad Foods has put together an impressive track record of delivering both top and bottom line growth. And after last year's equity raise, they have a strong balance sheet and an appetite for further accretive acquisitions. This morning, ahead of their presentation, the company preannounced better-than-expected 4Q results, along with giving us a glimpse at guidance for 2020. Here to talk to us about their business, we have CFO -- I mean, CEO, Stéfan Descheemaeker; CFO, Samy Zekhout; and Head of Investor Relations, Taposh Bari. So with that, over to Stéfan.

Stéfan Descheemaeker

executive
#2

Thank you, Andrew, and by the way, I was a CFO in my life, so it's understandable. So very good to be back after 2 years, actually, and ready to discuss about this very interesting, to say the least, journey we've been through and probably, more importantly, it's really what's ahead of us. So '15 is really -- when you're coming back to '15, we acquired these 2 businesses together. Making us the leader in frozen food. And the priorities there were very clear. First one is let's make sure that the foundations are back, and there was a lot to do. Then, let's make sure we have the right plan to generate, in a sustainable way, profitable growth and then ultimately, obviously, shareholders' value. And yes, this year marks the 5-year anniversary of Nomad Foods, which is really a good time to reflect back. So we've made significant progress and at the same time, we're very imperfect. And we believe it's a blessing because with the right mind-set, we know that there is so much more we can do. So earlier today, to your point, Andrew, we released -- we shared the preliminary 2019 results. It will be our third straight year of growth. I remember after year 1, there were questions around, "It's 1 year. It's easy. The comps are easy. So let's see year 2." We did year 2. We did -- we're doing year 3. It's a question of semantics more than anything else. And based on our plans, we expect 2020 -- 2020 which will be our fourth year of growth. And at the same time, and I'll spend much more time on that, we'll expand our plant protein sub-brand Green Cuisine across Europe. The growth prospects for our company, exciting. The category is really doing well and can do more, and it's going to be our job. It is our job as a category leader to obviously more invest in long-term investment behind the category. 5 years ago, sustainability, climate change, were concept that were probably a bit less important, I would put it that way. And today, they really sit at the heart of our business. And last but not least, we have a strong balance sheet, which will enable us to execute on M&A strategy. So with that and, obviously, I'm sparing you the disclosures, today's agenda is quite simple. So I will begin with a brief overview for those newer to our story. I'll spend more time on plant protein, specifically around how we plan to accelerate growth in 2020 and why we think we have the right to win in an exciting space. And then Samy will then share with you how to build on our foundation by raising the bar even further in terms of the optimization. And then we will wrap up with some financial highlights. So in a nutshell, what the company is all about, as you can see, EUR 2.0-plus billion of net revenues, EUR 2.3 billion, actually; undisputable market leader in Europe; and most -- more importantly, even category by category or in country by country, either #1 or #2, mostly #1. We expect to report, as we said, organic revenue for a third straight year in 2019. True Pan-European business across most of Europe in multi categories. The fish and veg around 60% of our revenues. That's really the key -- the anchor of our portfolio, fish and veg: 40% fish, 20% veg; and then around 5,000 employees. And it's all about frozen, as you can see. Another point is, which is probably less known, less well-known is we are the clear market leader in Western Europe, fair enough. But we're also the third largest branded frozen food in the world. We're big, not only in terms of size, but also because of the role we play with sustainability. We've been doing a lot but probably not enough in terms of media, something we need -- where we need to do a better job because sustainability means, for us, 3 key things. One is how to improve the way we source our products. And today, over 90% of our fish is sustainably certified. How to make our products better. Over the past 3 years, we have significantly reduced our CO2 per ton of finished goods. And then very specifically, to us, is how to provide consumers with a growing portfolio of frozen food products, sustainable food products based on fish, based on veg and increasingly so with plant protein. This one is just a quick one, and I'll let you read. I will not spend too much of your time. These are the reasons we think it's worth investing behind Nomad Foods. Some of these points will be covered across the presentation between me and Samy today. Again, one of them is iconic brands, high brand awareness, again, last year -- 2 years ago, we spent a lot of time behind the Captain, which is a big icon across Europe. Green Cuisine is going to come very fast. Then we have, obviously, some other brands like Findus, Birds Eye, Iglo, all very strong local brands, great tasting, nutritious, convenient. We've been investing a lot behind these brands. And so as an example, this is an ad that we have been playing lately. It's really designed around children, how to encourage children to eat more vegetables. So if I can go have the video about eating food color. [Presentation]

Stéfan Descheemaeker

executive
#3

So we've been doing this. We've been -- we've launched it across the board. We have a global local model that we like very much, very much geared towards where the consumers are. Some of our categories are very global, like, for example, fish. Some are more local, where then the countries have a bigger role to play. Here, we're very proud of having been able to come and to have all the countries behind the same ad. So that's a good example of the kind of things we're doing as a group. So back to our results. As we said, 12 consecutive quarters of growth, expect to exceed our guidance and achieve organic revenue growth of 2.1%. Third consecutive year of profitable growth, so back to this concept of profitable growth. And last but not least is it's also a real pride inside the organization to have achieved these results. Nothing replaces growth long term. Nothing replaces growth in terms of how to motivate the teams. I remember the first time the U.K. team, after so many years of decline experiences first quarter of growth. You could feel in the room the excitement, the energy. And that's the kind of things, which more than the results even though -- in parallel with the result, the kind of things we've been able to generate within the organization. And again, this is the kind of things we're doing in line with our algorithm, which is to generate low single-digit range in terms of sales year in, year out. So that's the kind of things we're doing, and you've seen that we've been quite consistent. Then, again, what the third priority was shareholders' value creation. So I'll let you read. I think it speaks for itself. And that's definitely a key component of our priorities. It's a by-product to some extent, but definitely, the kind of things we are reasonably proud of as well. Back to our leadership position in Europe, again, undisputable. It's -- we are, by far, the #1. You can see the others. You have someone like Oetker across Europe, but very dedicated to 1 category, which is pizza. Then you have Nestlé, 1 or 2 categories, mostly pizza as well. McCain is potatoes as well. And then FRoSTA and Orkla are more local players. And so none of these guys have the multi-category position on Pan European side, the scale the way we do. It's a big category, as you can see. But by far, we're the #1, and we believe that's -- that it comes with responsibility as well. Frozen food, as such, again, has grown 1% to 2% per year. 2019, closer to 2%, reasonably stable, limited cyclic ability. But again, in terms of raising the bar, we think the category can do better. And we, as a category leader, we have a big role to play. It offers health benefits that are not fully appreciated by the consumers. Again, more media, more things that we need to do, more announcements. We need to educate people. It's inherently, and everybody will agree with that, it's a convenient product. And in terms of sustainability, it's an amazing way for the consumers and for the retailers to reduce food waste, something that the retailers sometimes do not fully appreciate. I can tell you, I was a retailer for 5 years in my life. It's very clear when you compare the margin between chilled and frozen, definitely, you need to take into account waste because it has a big, big role to play. Across Europe, the 2% is broken down between these 2 -- countries, vis-à-vis the countries. So high growth, sometimes a bit of decline, like in France, for example, so -- but overall, it's quite consistent. Some people, and especially given that we are a bit of a special animal being mainly -- well, 99% of our business is in Europe. Some people are asking us, "How do you compare the frozen business with, well, between Europe and U.S.?" It's quite simple. In terms of growth potential, it's about the same, 1% to 2%. We hope that it's going to go faster than that. And so we're working on this. Per consumption capita is a bit different. So it's bigger in the U.S. It's mostly due to ready meals. Ready meals is a very, very, very big category -- a subcategory in the U.S., much smaller in Europe. The biggest category or at least the category that makes the most difference in Europe is fish. By the way, that's a good news because it's about 40% of our business so makes a big difference. And our knowhow and our position in that place -- in that space is very, very, very strong. Private label penetration, twice the size in Europe, 40% as opposed to 20% in the U.S., stable in Europe, growing in the U.S. But again, not -- you should never take things for granted, it's just because you have to play the brand game. You have to offer systematically, in a sustainable way, new things, better things just to make sure that the private label guys are going to stay the way they are. So that's what we have to do. Final piece, we are the market leader, let me repeat it again, in Western Europe. And there are 2 big players, as you know, in the U.S. Strategy. And I will deal with strategy together with Samy, 5 big pieces: One is focus; second, invest; innovation; optimize; and then acquire. So focus, which is, obviously, the DNA of the strategy is to make strategic choices. I think we've been very, very disciplined with that. And it has delivered. Investment from day 1, starting from assets that have been managed by private equity for many years, sometimes more than a decade. We have been reinvesting in the business, and I'll show you exactly where. It's not limited to the brands. And it has enabled us to regenerate consistent growth. Innovation, again, earlier on '15, '16 was very much about renovation. We had to make sure that the foundation were right. They were not. So it's a never-ending process with renovation. Still, innovation is really starting to become a bigger piece of our strategy and it's going to -- only to increase, and I'll show you how. Optimization, again, so many things where we're imperfect. So many good reasons to raise the bar. Something that Samy is going to explain. And again, final, last but not least, acquisition, EUR 1 billion on the balance sheet. Clear intention, yes, to put that money to work through acquisitions. In the meantime, we're also improving our modus operandi, our way to go to in terms of business because M&A is one thing, the integration is the bigger piece. You need to integrate the right way. And in the meantime, we're improving our business model. So starting with focus. It's -- you probably have heard or if you know a bit the company, it's all about core. In our jargon, we're talking about Must Win Battles. It has become so important that within the organization, everybody understands and uses the word -- the acronym MWB. This is -- the core is very simple. These are the power SKUs, like fish fingers, like recent acquisition behind pizza and like major innovations like Green Cuisine. The good news is this core, this Must Win Battle represents about 70% of our sales. They have generated a mid-single-digit growth organically over the last 4 years, helped by full A&P. That was, again, back to consistency in making strategic choices. All our A&P goes to the core, 70% of the business. And then below the core, the 30%, it's really about 3 layers. One is secondary brands, which is basically the same. They're strategic, but at the same time, we don't have the money to go with A&P or good on TV. So we're moving -- we're improving the product. We're working on the packaging. We're doing a bit of digital but TV is probably too expensive. The second piece is other branded products. And that basically, we've taken the choice. This can only decline. So these are categories where, quite frankly, we don't have a big position or the growth potential is not strong enough or market share is just -- or the gross margin is not big enough. And so that's the kind of thing we know it's going to decline. And then you have the 10%, which is a bit of different things, mostly food service, where we have so much to learn and private label. And again, we're doing the best we can, but we're not perfect yet. So obviously, if you're talking with mid-single-digit growth with the 70%, it means that the rest is obviously much, much lower. And sometimes with some declines, which is something that at least for some categories or some categories we're ready to accept. So moving to invest. As I said, it's not limited to brands, but brands is absolutely fundamental. So we spend about 5% of our revenues on advertising, more if you limit yourself to the Must Win Battles, the core. And in the meantime, something that Samy is going to explain as well, our ROIs have increased significantly over the last 3 years. We also invest behind the relationship with our retailers, not always easy, as you know. But overall, we have strong relationship with these guys. This is an example of what we've been able to do with Sainsbury, something like 3 months ago, just a way to rejuvenate the category. The third piece is -- and we're going to talk about these breakthrough innovations. So a big thing and I spend probably 50% of my presentation today behind the Green Cuisine, which is really the most important innovation for the years to come. And last but not least, and it's a difference maker, it's probably less of a tangible for you, but it's absolutely fundamental for us. As people progress, we -- there was no investment when we started, so we had to recreate everything from scratch. And what we see is, in terms of engagement, we were way behind compared to our peers. And over the last 3 years, we've progressed so much that today, we are 6 points ahead. So it's the kind of things where we're really proud of because, again, nobody knows exactly how it works between financial results, financial successes and engagement. At the end of the day, it comes together. Innovation, exciting, growing, same mantra. It's all about focus. So before our time, innovation was all over the place. We've stopped this. The first 2 years, the word innovation was a bad word. It was all about renovation, first, and then let's make sure that we're ready to go with innovation. Innovation in a different way. So as opposed to go to all the categories, we focused behind the Must Win Battles, the core business. And what we see as the most exciting innovation for the years to come is really around plant protein. And so again, it goes -- and that's probably a big difference. It goes way beyond burgers and sausages for us. The big goal is to create a consistent range that allows consumers to reduce their meat intake and at the same time, to increase their vegetable consumption, together with something which is wide, accessible and convenient. So in terms of plant protein, I'll start quickly because you probably know most of these data. But again, why we believe it's so important, definitely as a food company, it's very clear that the shift to a more sustainable diet can have a profound impact on reducing carbon emissions and on the food waste. So we believe passionately that this category is there to stay. It's going to grow exponentially. And Andrew Lazar came with some interesting observation about 10% of the category in the next 10 years. Correct me if I'm wrong, Andrew. But again, we don't know exactly what it's going to be, but it's really -- it's not a fad. It's something that's going to stay. It's so important in terms of health, in terms of sustainability that people will go for it. So a few facts, again, at least more focused on our countries. It's not something which is niche. I'm taking the example of U.K., which is probably one of the most advanced, together with Sweden, most advanced in terms of meat-free. It's -- nearly 1/3 of the evening meals are now meat-free. And it's not done by vegans, it's done by flexitarians, which means that, basically, it's becoming something which is mainstream. And mainstream is really something good for us because we are mainstream. That's our job. That's what we want. That's our mantra. That's what we want to deliver. And we're starting with 60% of our business is already basically meat-free when you're taking -- for the fish and vegetable. So that's a fantastic starting point. And Green Cuisine is -- the ambition for us, over time, is to have Green Cuisine as a third leg in terms of meat-free for us in the future. Again, few data points probably that you're not fully aware of because it's more European-based. We've done a lot of research in Europe. What we see is consumers, different stages of the journey, north is more developed, south is less developed, but the direction is the same, very clear. What we also see is people are a bit frustrated. They're frustrated because what they see is a limited selection, not very inspiring choices. So we have to come up with something which is, obviously, more interesting. The third point is about how to come up with something which is not limited to, as I said, sausages or burgers, but to come up with something which is a wide range of products. And that's exactly what we want to do. Green Cuisine will be a democratic way to approach plant protein in a very, very wide way, accessible and convenient to the masses. Very different levels of development, as you can see in Europe, between Sweden, United Kingdom, and you're adding Germany. Between the 3 of them, it's, today, 75% of the market overall. By the way, chilled or frozen, here it's frozen but the same thing in chilled. It doesn't mean that the other countries are not interesting because everything is moving very, very fast. Overall, it's largely above 10% and more, if you take into account, obviously, the smaller countries at this stage. So we know -- we believe, but more importantly, we know that we have a strong right to win in plant protein. So let me spend a bit of time why we believe so. First is we are the leader in the frozen world in Europe, as simple as that. Our go-to-market is unparalleled. Nobody has the same. At the same time, we're starting from very strong basis with 60% of the business which is already meat-free. And then again, and I'm going to spend a bit more time zooming in, we had Green Cuisine. We think we are uniquely positioned with Green Cuisine to really offer something which is wide, accessible and convenient. So Green Cuisine, it's a mainstream brand. It's priced at the premium to private label, but it's more accessible than many other brands in the market. As we said -- as I said, if we leverage the scale and the infrastructure of the brands, whether it's Birds Eye in the U.K., Findus in other countries and Iglo in the rest of the other countries as well. And it's a great-tasting product. And I should have started with that, by the way, is our recent formula launching in 2020 has come back with taste superiority to some of the high-profile brands out there. So we're very proud of that. The way we started last year, quite frankly -- it took a bit of time to find the right balance, and I'll tell you why. And last but not least, the brand will be supported by media in a very aggressive way, the Must Win Battle way, MWB is the acronym. And we already launched it. And so we have some very good results in the U.K. and in Ireland. And so that's why we're going to launch it across Europe or mostly across Europe in 2020, mostly in H1. So Green Cuisine -- and I should have also started with them because it's a difficult equation. It's a complicated equation. You have to take into account 3 dimensions. One is the taste. And we talked about the taste. We -- it's a big tick for us, which is fine. But again, you have to do this product by product. So it's not because you have a great burger that you don't have -- you have necessarily great sausages or other things. The second thing is nutrition. And that's an important one because you have -- your nutrition level has to be great. And all burgers have less than 2 grams of fat, high in fiber and very importantly, they do not contain any artificial colors or flavors. So I would just invite you to buy the product. You have to go to Europe, unfortunately, at this stage. But if you happen to be in Europe, I would invite you to go and then read the ingredients and compare with competition. And then we'll let you judge how it works. But that's very important as well. And last but not least, in terms of sustainability, it's made of peas which is one of the most sustainable crops that is available today. So this combination of sustainability and nutrition and taste is definitely the triangle. You have to find the sweet spot. We're getting there. It's a never-ending story. But definitely, it's -- we're proud of the sweet spot we found at this stage. We said it's mainstream. It shouldn't be limited to, as we said, to burgers. And so the kind of things we're doing, not yet in the U.K., but it's a kind of launch. We have -- we've been through in a country like Germany, early in Jan with 3 components, 1 is meat substitute. That's an obvious one. But very importantly, as well, the vegetarian components and then ready meals. The idea is really to offer the consumers, especially young families, a full range of assortment, not limit -- so they can choose at some stage. It can be, obviously, meat-free, like burgers or sausages or whatever. At the same time, the next day, it should be something like vegetarian components and ready meals. And it's available. So we have a fantastic range of products. And the countries now, what they're doing is they have decided to go wider and not limited to this. So that's a very different angle. Again, it's an angle of being mainstream and coming with something which is wide. First results in the U.K., performed well since launch in the U.K., 2019. #3 meat-free frozen brand in less than 12 months. That's one thing. Second, very important is we are the #1 selling meat ball in the market. And in January, our burger was the second best-selling SKU overall. So compared to the other 2 that have been there for many years, in less than 12 months, we're quite proud of what we've achieved at this stage, and it's only the start. Our ambition is also, as I said, is to introduce new consumers, young families in part to the category, which is exactly what these -- all brands, Birds Eye, Findus or Iglo are all about. So very promising as a first -- as a starting point. And again, I think we can do better. I think the launch in the U.K. was good, but they're also learning from what the other countries are now doing, which is the beauty of this global-local model that we are quite proud of. So this is a time line, what we're doing: H1, Germany started in Jan; France is -- I think it's going to be in 10 days; Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, Austria, everything by the end of H1. So it's going to be busy. We're going to learn from one to the other. But overall, there is a lot of intentionality at the country level, which is where you're making a difference. And we believe that we have -- with the money, the intention and the effort we're making and the products, we have everything that it takes to win. So that's our ambition, EUR 100 million plus by 2022. It's -- there are some good reasons for this because it's not only the quality of the product but it's also, obviously, the level of investment. The good news is it's -- in terms of gross margin, it's gross margin accretive to start with. Within 2020 and in less -- to a lesser extent, in the other years, much of that gross profit will be reinvested A&P as we look to build a sustainable platform. So that's definitely in terms of reinvestment, investment behind the category. That's the right thing to do. It takes -- it comes with choices, obviously, between short term, long term. But definitely, we believe -- if we believe that it's a category that's going to grow and stay and we are the category leader, we have no choice but to do this. So with that, I hope that it gives you a bit of an idea of how we position our strategy and more specifically, the Green Cuisine and plant protein. And I will now turn it over to Samy to walk you through some of our efforts around optimization as we look to drive operating leverage and fuel growth. Samy?

Samy Zekhout

executive
#4

Thank you, Stéfan, and good afternoon, everyone. It's great to be here. With 3 consecutive years of organic revenue growth, it's safe to say that our business is now firmly anchored on a trajectory of sustainable growth. In order for us to deliver our goals, we will need to continue to raise the bar and challenge the status quo. I'd like to share some examples where we are looking to advance our capabilities to drive added efficiency across our organization. Let's start with the way we advertise. As a ready-food company, creating compelling ads is a fundamental capability of ours. For the past 3 years, we have been introducing the systematic use of neuroscience to better understand how consumer will respond to our copy. More recently, we have linked this work with our econometrics model, establishing the relationship between ad effectiveness and consumption, to better allocate our advertising investment across the portfolio. As a result of this work, we have seen consistent ROI increases in our media, which now stands ahead of our industry norms. Another great example has been our work around the use of web listening and machine learning to develop groundbreaking consumer-led innovations. Through the collection of social media on food ingredients per their claims and benefits, we have used artificial intelligence to create millions of scenarios and narrow them down to the most consumer-relevant and value-accretive combination. This is an exciting capability that we are currently piloting and plan to expand in the coming months. Distribution is a clear area where we have significant room for improvement. Here is an overview of where we sell across the business. Nearly 80% of our business represents branded goods, which are sold to our traditional retailers. Another 8% comes from e-commerce, and hard discounters is growing double digits. And the remainder is a combination of food service and private labels. We grew in our 3 primary channels in 2019. In traditional retail, we have a huge opportunity to drive more and higher quality space. Most of our initiatives have a direct and disproportionate benefit to this group of consumers. E-commerce is a growth opportunity channel where frozen food in our business, in particular, has a higher share versus brick-and-mortar and with double-digit growth. This is an area where we plan to continue to outperform. And then in hard discount, our business has more than doubled in the past 3 years. As hard discounters turn to brand leaders to enhance their product offering, we have developed a successful model to win in this channel. In Germany, the Netherlands and Holland -- and Austria our entry into to Lidl and Aldi has attracted new consumers with solid incrementality and more importantly, as well, a healthy gross margin. Net revenue management is another important area we will look to raise the bar. We are making a more holistic and multiyear review along the 3 strategic pillars: pricing, promotion optimization and leveraging our trade terms to accelerate growth. After a few years now, these capabilities have certainly enabled us to increase unit sales and more specifically to raise price, particularly in 2019 in response to higher raw material costs. Looking out, we will continue to enhance our NRM capabilities through a more strategic and integrated approach across the portfolio. Supply chain productivity will play an increasingly important role for us going forward as we look to drive profitable growth, offsetting inflation and driving productivity. Initiatives in place across procurement, manufacturing and network design optimization, which we expect to drive more than 2% reduction in COGS. Specific example here include packaging optimization to simplify our SKU portfolio, so lean manufacturing across 13 factories to drive a high level of efficiency, improve productivity and less waste. Those were just a few examples of how we will build our solid foundation in the years to come. I'd like to conclude with some financial highlights, including some additional color on our news from this morning where we announced preliminary Q4 results, and we introduced our 2020 guidance. Our long-term algorithm was first presented in CAGNY actually in 2018. It has not changed. Our aim is to deliver low single-digit organic growth based on our assumption of 1% to 2% category growth and some market share expansion. From there, we continue to believe that we have room to expand margin in the long run. This will, of course, vary from year-to-year and depend on the circumstances, indeed. After taking cash flow into consideration, we aim to convert most of it, if not all, of our earnings into cash, which should results in a TSR in the double digits. And of course, acquisition were an important -- which is an important element of our growth strategy would be incremental. We have, by far and large, delivered against these targets in the past years. This morning, we provided preliminary headlines for our Q4 and full year results. We are scheduled to report Q4 earnings next Thursday, February 27, but wanted to share these results still subject to audit to allow for a transparent dialogue. Overall, 2019 marks another solid year of growth with 2.1% organic revenue growth, 15% adjusted EBITDA growth and convert most of our profit into cash. Importantly, our full year adjusted EBITDA of EUR 432 million exceeded the high end of our guidance. We are particularly pleased with these results given the external environments in 2019, particularly around the surge in fish prices. We took a significant level of pricing and ultimately observed price elasticity in line with our expectation. We also prepared ourselves for Brexit, where we remain ready for all scenarios. Let me get to in more specifics of the 2020 guidance. This will be another year of revenue growth in the low single digits. Adjusted EBITDA of approximately EUR 440 million to EUR 445 million. And on phasing, we do expect organic revenue growth to be most modest in Q1 and build throughout the year, with growth particularly robust in Q4. A few factor for all of you to consider, this will be the fourth consecutive year of organic revenue growth. It will be another year of outsized inflation largely due to the timing of FX hedge and raw material contract which we have placed 6 to 12 months ago. And with the goal of driving penetration, we are taking a more balanced approach to 2020 between price and volume versus 2019. Taking all of this into consideration, we expect our gross margin and EBITDA margin to be roughly flat in 2020. And indeed, this guidance is before the potential of any deals. Speaking of deals, acquisitions are an important element of our growth, as you know. Since the formation of the company in 2015, we have acquired 2 bolt-on businesses in the U.K. which have, in aggregate, performed in line with our expectations. Our playbook is to acquire businesses where we believe we can generate shareholder value, either through cost synergies and/or by applying our playbook and capabilities. We have a robust balance sheet with significant financial capacity to self-fund acquisition. I'm going to hand over to you, Stéfan?

Andrew Lazar

analyst
#5

Yes, you can give him the mic.

Samy Zekhout

executive
#6

No, sure. Sorry.

Stéfan Descheemaeker

executive
#7

Thank you, Samy. And so let me start with the words I used to start this presentation today. So we've been on an exciting journey as a company, starting with 2015. The first part was a bit interesting because we really had to refocus on the core. We had to recreate from scratch a strong culture within the organization. It was a hodgepodge of many different things. And personally, I didn't like it. And we spent a lot of time, a lot of effort, a lot of money behind restoring the brand -- the strength of our brands. So that's been '15, '16. And the only thing we could, at that time, announce was something, "Okay, the next quarter, the decline is going to be a bit better," and that's what we've been doing between '15 and '16. And then in '17, '18 it was really about, basically, the turnaround, the results quarter-after-quarter. We returned to organic growth. We recruited leading industry talents because, obviously, at the moment, you're starting to grow, you can have access to a better pool of talents within the organization, within the market, which is absolutely crucial for us. And based on this -- and not -- and only based on this, at that time, we thought it was the right moment to start with M&A, which is something we did in, back in '17, with 2 acquisitions in the U.K. that we have, in the meantime, integrated. One is Aunt Bessie's, the second one is pizza, it's Goodfellas. So that's a bit what we've been doing over the last '17, '18. And then basically, '19 onwards is really about sustained growth. Again, year after year after year after year, you have to be boringly sustainable and you have to generate the kind of TSR that Samy is talking about. So third year consecutive organic -- year of organic growth. We expect the momentum to continue in 2020. We have exciting plans. We continue to believe that despite these successes, the best of it has to come now with things like Green Cuisine, like this -- basically, this algorithm, but definitely, we want to continue and, obviously, with M&A or everything in line with the TSR that we love. And definitely also with the categories that we love more than anything else. It's been about focus. I think focus has come very, very often as a key word today. It has made a difference. I don't think we are smarter than other people, we're just more focused, and it's been big. So as we close, I would like to play a video that we recently played at our leadership off-site and close to London, very close to London, back in January. I definitely hope it's going to provide you with a better sense behind who we are and where we want to go. So if we can go with the video. Thank you very much. [Presentation]

Stéfan Descheemaeker

executive
#8

Thank you very much for your time, and I understand it's now open to questions. We have 4 minutes. Andrew?

Andrew Lazar

analyst
#9

You talked about much of the pricing that you took in 2019. It seems like that was quite successful, as you talked about. 2020 will be a little bit more balanced between volume and pricing, which is understandable. It puts a little bit more of the onus for profit delivery on the productivity side. To me, it seems like maybe productivity wasn't maybe as robust as it could have been or maybe as you would have expected in '19. Can you tell me if I'm right on that front? And if so, what are the plans to sort of build that up to where you want it to be in 2020 because that's a more important driver going forward?

Stéfan Descheemaeker

executive
#10

I will start. And then please, Samy, could you complement? I think you are too nice with us, Andrew. I think our results in '18, in terms of supply chain, were crap and at least, it's a good starting point. '19, we've made some real progress. And in '20 we're, again, back to creating the right team, the right talents, we have the right people. We're systematizing everything. And definitely, it's going to be really the year of making a big difference, 2020. And it's only -- not only serves the organic business, the existing business, but it's going to make us a better acquirer in the future, which is then we're going to be in a position to see any acquisitions, the plans, where we think we can improve, all these things that, quite frankly, we were not very good at so far. Samy?

Samy Zekhout

executive
#11

The only element I would add is probably the name of the game in the early years was to meet the demand and focusing really on capacity utilization. And frankly, we had started the whole thinking about lean in productivity in 2018, where a lot of the seeds were planted and are delivering now if you want, really, on an ongoing basis. As we are starting to roll out this from manufacturing to manufacturing but -- and supply network design optimization. So you're absolutely right. I think we will see more in the years to come, definitely.

Andrew Lazar

analyst
#12

We're going to get cut off soon. But the guidance for low single-digit EBITDA growth, is there incremental investment in Green Cuisine that's causing you to be below algorithm? Or is it really just a function of pricing lagging commodity cost inflation?

Samy Zekhout

executive
#13

We are investing -- actually, with the launch of Green Cuisine is, let's say, quite accretive for us from a gross margin standpoint. And we make the intentional choice to reinvest the totality of that into the business in order to accelerate growth from that perspective. It's a new category. It's new needs. And we need to make it very strong and -- because, I mean, it's going to be a significant part of our business growth in the years to come, so we made that decision, absolutely.

Stéfan Descheemaeker

executive
#14

But back to your point about inflation. What we've seen is '18, '19 was quite unprecedented in terms of COGS increase, definitely in terms of fish. What we see going forward -- again, nobody has a crystal ball, but at least what we've seen is prices are starting really to stabilize, which will make our life easier looking forward in 2021.

Andrew Lazar

analyst
#15

I think we'll wrap it up there and take it over to the breakout. Please join me in thanking Nomad Foods for their presentation.

Stéfan Descheemaeker

executive
#16

Thank you.

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