Nomura Real Estate Holdings, Inc. (NMEHF) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Let me start with the presentation. First, turn to Page 3 of the presentation material. As for the results for the third quarter, operating revenue was JPY 581.5 billion. Business profit was JPY 86.2 billion. Profit attributable to owners of parent, JPY 42.9 billion. Business profit and profit attributable to owners of parent declined year-over-year. Details by business unit will be explained later, but the decline in business profit was mainly due to the sales of residential development and property sales tending to be recognized more in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year. The decline in profit attributable to owners of parent is primarily because as we have started to rebuild the Hamamatsucho Building, impairment losses and demolishment costs of the existing building was booked as extraordinary loss. This has been already anticipated at the beginning of the year. The progress is in line with our forecast. Based on these results, for the full year forecast, we have made an upward revision from our initial forecast for business profit and ordinary profit. We have conducted an upward revision for dividends as well. I will explain about the revised forecast on Page 6. So by business unit, in the overseas business, we have made a downward revision for business profit as we have changed the timing for property sales located in London, U.K. On the other hand, the business units in the domestic business showed a strong performance in each of the business units such as Residential Development, Commercial Real Estate, Property Brokerage & CRE and Property & Facility Management, we made an upward revision for business profit. As a result, consolidated business profit is JPY 137 billion. We expect we'll be able to realize growth that exceeds the 8% level that we have set as a target. As the amount of extraordinary loss related to Hamamatsucho Building has been determined and as we have visibility in recognizing extraordinary profit from the sales of non-current assets in Japan, we are fairly confident that we'll be able to achieve JPY 75 billion of profit attributable to parent as we have forecasted it. Next, I will explain about the performance of each business unit. Please go to Page 12. Under the Residential Development business, due to the number of housing units being booked more in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year, both operating revenue and profit declined. However, the sales situation is robust among a wide range of locations and product types, leading to an improvement of gross profit ratio. Under this condition, we have revised the business profit full year forecast upward. We forecast both operating revenue and profit to go up year-over-year. Please go to Page 13. As shown on the graph on the left-hand side, gross profit ratio on a quarterly cumulative basis was 26.3%. We are assuming this to be at the 25% range for the full year. Please turn to Page 14. Housing sales has progressed smoothly. The contract progress rate was 99.6% against the scheduled housing sales for the full year of JPY 310 billion. Please turn to Page 15. As you can see from the slide on the right-hand side, we have a land bank for housing sales of approximately JPY 2.5 trillion for the mid- to long term. This means that roughly speaking, we have a stock for 6 to 7 years of business. Of this land bank, 60% is in the Tokyo 23 wards, which is equivalent of JPY 1.6 trillion of sales. Please turn to Page 19. In the Property Sales business unit, progress has been made on the expansion strategy of Property Sales business, including senior housing and hotels, which is in our 3-year plan. On a quarterly cumulative basis, due to the sales of senior housing and hotels, revenue reached JPY 8.7 billion and gross profit was JPY 5.1 billion. Please go to Page 20. In terms of our land bank, for this quarter, we have been able to acquire land for development for 13 properties, a total investment amount of JPY 88.6 billion. This is due to the progress we have made in investing in land bank in Property Sales, including senior housing and hotels. We have secured approximately JPY 90 billion worth of land bank that have already been completed. If we include those that are under development, the amount will be approximately JPY 270 billion. Next, I will explain about the Commercial Real Estate business unit. Please turn to Page 22. In the Commercial Real Estate business unit, while Property Sales has exceeded last year's numbers, as opening costs were booked for BLUE FRONT SHIBAURA S Building, it was one of the factors for the decline in the profit for this third quarter. However, as we anticipate Property Sales will progress steadily going forward, we have made an upward revision for the full year for both operating revenue and business profit. Please go to Page 23. Under the Property Sales business, total operating revenue was JPY 119.2 billion, while gross profit was JPY 36.6 billion on a quarterly cumulative basis coming from sales of properties. For the full year, we are forecasting over JPY 50 billion of gross profit coming from this business. Please turn to Page 24. Land acquisition for Property Sales business has been JPY 47 billion for the 3 quarters for this fiscal year. Due to the progress of land acquisition in recent years, we have been able to secure land bank equivalent to total investment amount of JPY 1.1 trillion worth 5 to 6 years of business, including projects under development, mainly in office and logistics facilities. Next, please turn to Page 25. The vacancy rate for leasing assets held as non-current assets averaged 5.9% across all areas, up 1.2 points from the second quarter. However, most of this was due to the group's move from the building in the Shinjuku area due to the relocation of our headquarters. Leasing of these vacated space is progressing smoothly with about half of the vacated space in the core Shinjuku Nomura Building already contracted or pre-leased. Leasing activities for the remaining space are also progressing smoothly, driven by the recent decline in vacancy rates and rising rents. Looking at the office market as a whole, new rent levels are on an upward trend, not only for the Shinjuku Nomura Building mentioned earlier, but also for our flagship office product, PMO. Regarding rent revisions, 70% of the existing tenants had their rents revised up by about 5% to 10%. Next, we look at Overseas business unit on Page 31. In Overseas business, both operating revenue and business profit booked a reactionary decline after posting large housing sales project in Vietnam in the same period last year. In addition, we have revised downward our full year business profit forecast, mainly due to the timing of the sales of the office building in London, U.K. postponed from the beginning of the year to next fiscal year or later. Housing sales in Vietnam this fiscal year varied by property, while the Grand Park in Ho Chi Minh City progressed strongly. The Royal Island in Hai Phong is slightly sluggish against the plan due to increased supply in the area. Please turn to Page 33. Our Overseas total project cost is JPY 840 billion. During the third quarter, we decided to participate in one new housing sales project in Vietnam and one new rental housing project in the United States. Now for Investment Management, please turn to Page 34. In the Business Management business unit, assets under management for private REITs and private funds are steadily increasing. We also launched our first overseas development fund in Houston U.S.A. This fund provides domestic institutional investors with investment opportunities in high-rise rental housing development projects. Next, Property Brokerage & CRE on Page 35. In the Property Brokerage & CRE business unit, operating revenue and business profit increased due to increased transaction value in retail for individuals, middle market for corporate owners and wealthy individuals and wholesale for large corporations and investors. Reflecting this strong performance, we have revised up our full year operating revenue and business profit forecasts. Next, for Property & Facility Management, please turn to Page 37. In the Property & Facility Management business unit, both operating revenue and business profit increased driven by increases in both property and facility management and construction ordered. This is mainly due to increased revenue from construction ordered by tenants moving into BLUE FRONT SHIBAURA. In light of this, we have revised our full year operating revenue and business profit forecast upward. This concludes explanation about our business units. Finally, I would like to explain about shareholder returns. Please turn to Page 10. We have raised our full year DPS forecast from JPY 36 to JPY 40, resulting in shareholder return equivalent to dividend payout ratio of 45.7%. I would like to reiterate our approach to shareholder return and explain why we have made this decision. Our company has traditionally placed emphasis on achieving a high ROE, thereby achieving both profit growth through investment and increased shareholder value through shareholder returns. Based on this fundamental principle, we have set total shareholders' return ratio of 40% to 50%. Until fiscal year ended March 2024, given our undervalued stock price, we achieved a total payout ratio of about 45% by combining dividends with share buybacks. Subsequently, in the previous fiscal year ended March 2025, we placed greater emphasis on dividends, introduced 4% DOE floor and raised our dividend payout ratio, which had previously been in the 30% range to about 40%. However, as our stock price remained undervalued, we also conducted share buybacks in the previous fiscal year. Our initial dividend forecast for FY '25 was JPY 36 per share, representing a dividend payout ratio of 41.1% However, with business progressing smoothly during the fiscal year and even taking into account the special factor for this fiscal year, namely the extraordinary loss recorded for the development of BLUE FRONT SHIBAURA TOWER N, we are now more likely to achieve our performance targets. Thus, we have decided to make additional returns to our shareholders. As a result of this increase, the dividend per share of JPY 40 will represent a total payout ratio of 45.7%, which we believe is appropriate when considering the balance between investment and returns. As an additional return measure, we also considered the share buyback we have been implementing since 2018. However, as our stock price is approaching our adjusted EPS, we believe the relative advantage of share buybacks has diminished, and we have decided to use dividends. However, I would like to reiterate that in our recognition, there is still room for improvement in our current share price. Going forward, we believe that we basically remain -- maintain profit growth at the 8% level, pay dividends in line with profit growth from the perspective of increasing our corporate value and stock price. That's all I have today. We will continue to strive for growth across the entire group to satisfy our shareholders. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]