Nordic Aqua Partners A/S (NOAP) Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Nordic Aqua's presentation of Q4 last year. With us to present today, we have from China, our Managing Director, Andreas Thorud. And with me here, I have Tom, our CFO. If we take Q4 as an overall, we can see that production was strong. So now we're entering into Q1 '26 with a strong biomass development, prepared also with larger sizes. If we go through first the highlights of the quarter, this was the quarter when we got in the new equity and the long-term debt that was finalized during Q4. Commercial harvest, 353 and average size 4 kilo live weight. Prices, EUR 5.74, and they were reflected by optimizations so that we took out smaller fish, preparing for a stronger 2026. If we look at the harvest throughout the year last year, just over 2,000 tonnes and average weight of 4.7 kilo live weight. China was importing highest volumes ever for Q4, nearly 40,000 tonnes, significantly up from the year before. Biomass development during the quarter, the highest that we have had so far in a quarter, 1,350. So we -- in total, we produced just around 4,000 tonnes in the 2025 and entering into '26 with 3,759 tonnes of biomass. And we have also transferred the first fish into our new facility, Stage 2, and that was on schedule for first harvest in September, we will start harvesting fish from this new unit. And now I'd like to give the word to Managing Director, Andreas.

Thank you for that, Ragnar. Well, we put behind us Q4 in 2025. I think we can get the slide up on the screen as well that we continue to receive good feedbacks from the market in terms of our quality. As Ragnar mentioned, we had 353 tonnes with a superior share of 93% and then harvest weight on the low side, 3.3 kilo in HOG equivalent 4 kilo live weight. And the price achievement we got was EUR 5.74 per kilo. And some of these metrics, especially in terms of some superior share and also the lower harvest size than our usual average and impacted obviously by the fish optimization that was being done in the facility in Q4, which we were also rigging ourselves for 2026. I think it's also important to highlight on the price achievement side that when you have production-grade fish in China, that is not a common product in this market. And we also sell this into channels with a significant lower price than what you see perhaps in other production fish in Norway and so on, and that is to protect our premium channels. In addition, a lot of that happened in December when the prices were higher. And it's also worth noting that when we did a lot of this production grade harvesting in December, the prices in the global market went up a bit, and that means when we also have lower prices, especially below 4 kilo, that has a negative impact due to the developed -- undeveloped, should I say, demand for 3 to 4 kilo sizes in the Chinese market. And if you just spend a minute on that on the next slide here, we can talk about what the price -- the price span in China, which is quite wide, and this is a known thing that China has a preference for the bigger fish because of the taste, it's particularly for yield, a lot of manual processing is going on. And we know the consumption is mainly for sashimi, and that was also for retail. So 5 plus ideally is often used also some [ 45, it's coming 45 ]. Below 4 kilo, there is not much demand, and that results in a quite high price sensitivity with the weight variations. And we can see that from our example we put up here from Q4, if we have our average sales price, and we only look at above 5 kilo superior average sales price compared to the overall average, it's a size effect of almost 36%. If we do the same for the Sitagri in Q4, the effect is 2.5%. So it just underlines that the size in China has a big importance in terms of price. And the good news that we can also bring is that coming into this quarter, we are estimating 4.5 kilo in HOG, we have a superior share. That's up 97%. So -- and we look also to gradually increase those sizes as we come into 2026. And I think what is important in the Chinese market for us is to build that premium position. We had some activities in the quarter. We had a pilot project with our Nordic PureAtlantic in international retail chain to which we launched that. That was a milestone for us to have the full branding. It validated our brand positioning, and we also see it as important for our long-term brand equity building as we look to build more strategic relationships into retail. We were also present at some trade events, trade shows, particularly this China seafood show in Qingdao, to which we also had a presentation there at an International Salmon Forum as the leading pioneering RAS company in China for Atlantic salmon. And in general, we very much feel comfortable where we are. I mean we are at what you see at the right place in China, in a growing Chinese market, a very exciting salmon market, perhaps the most exciting in the world. We believe we are at the right time with regards to the market finally starting here in terms of growing from foodservice into retail. And we think we are here with the right product, locally produced Atlantic salmon to which we know the consumer, the market is looking more to see what is China can offer domestically produced of high-quality proteins. And with our value proposition of the freshness we bring to the market, which is unparalleled with the food safety, how we do the farming here in addition to also that we have the no-antibiotic certificate that we do things in a sustainable manner that we can have a consistent quality, that we can have traceability on the product and also that we have an agility where we are in China for China in this day and time, especially in a time where you have a lot of geopolitics or tariffs going on, we feel very comfortable being in China for China and being here as a Norwegian heritage, building a unique industry of Atlantic salmon farmed on land to which we also can build unique strategic alliances. And we look to develop further in foodservice with our bigger sizes, we also look into developing further in the retail sector, which has grown a lot, especially last year. And overall, we think that is very exciting. And we are in Gaotang, just south of Shanghai, 300 kilometers south of Shanghai. We are in the Yangtze River Delta and China Eastern Sea Coast, and it's 100 million consumers within 5 hours. And in addition, we have a reach to the bigger first-tier cities. So the location is strategically important to reach that consumer that is with a higher disposable income, they're focusing on health and being where we are, we have a suitable water quality and also the modern infrastructure to support logistics into this growing market. And looking at the growing market in China, we see that last year was another record. It was 137,000 that was imported the whole year for fresh Atlantic salmon. We are on track to beat Alibaba's prediction that was made 2, 3 years ago of 210,000 in 2030. And if you look at the quarter-by-quarter, basically, since China ended this corona restriction end of '22, it's been a growth story ever since and grown every quarter. So it is a very exciting growth market. And it's also a market where the all origins are competing, and Norway is obviously, as you know, a leading nation here in terms of market share. We also saw that in Q4. We also have Chilean and Australian salmon together with other European origins. It was a strong quarter for Norway, up 69% year-on-year. But it's quite a unique Asian market in an setting with all those origins competing for this exciting growth market. And finally, if you look at the average import prices in China, it's worth to just take a wider look at it. It's been historically been above EUR 10 per kilo. If you look at what was happened in 2025, the last time we saw these landed import prices in China was 4, 5 years ago. The trend towards the end of the year was an increase. We have the blue line, which is the European origin, Norwegian, Faroe, Scottish and also the orange one with Australian and the Chilean. So for us, it's looking a lot forward now into 2026. We think China's demand for salmon is growing. We think it's going to continue to grow. This market has a lot to run, and we feel very excited where we are, and we look forward to the continuation this year. Thank you, Ragnar.

Thank you, Andreas. And now we go into the operations, and we can -- we just mentioned that there has been a good biological performance during the quarter with a stable production and also we entered fish into Stage 2. So we started also in some scale also to produce in that. But we can see that production Stage 1 that has been running at full run rate. And we're just initiating also to produce in Stage 2 during first quarter now and produce more also in the Stage 2 facility. If we just have a look at the total KPIs. And this slide is not only for the quarter. This is from the start until now, what have we produced, just looking at some of the KPIs. So we are just under 10,000 tonnes now of live weight production since the start. All batches have had mortalities at or below 5%. Harvested 3,000 tonnes and average weight in live weight 4.8 kilogram and superior share an average 97%. So the production has been going well, even though we have had some smaller sizes during Q3 and Q4 last year, and we are now heading for a larger fish harvest, as Andreas mentioned also, estimated to be 4.5 kilo HOG or 5.4 kilo live weight in this quarter that we're in now Q1. If we look at the project, as we mentioned, we have been building for a while Stage 2, and we have finalized Stage 2, and we have mentioned before also that the estimation of cost when we started was EUR 77 million, and we ended 16% down from that down to EUR 65 million. And we were benefiting from good purchasing by AKVA Group and also the standardization of units now we can finally see a good result from that. And if we look forward to the next stage, Stage 3, we have also mentioned that we will come back to Stage 3 because the concept that we are in now is a 20,000 tonnes facility. But now we want to relax with the construction. We will start with the design during 2026. But in -- we will -- we want to show some profitability in Stage 1 and 2 before we enter into the construction phase again in Stage 3. Okay. Then I will give the word to our CFO, Tom, please.

Thank you, Ragnar. Our revenue in fourth quarter was EUR 2 million, reflecting 353 tonnes at average price of EUR 5.74. And as I mentioned, the price was negatively affected by low harvest weights and also high share of production grade in December when the prices were at the best. Our cost -- released cost from stock was EUR 3.2 million, reflecting EUR 9 per kilo. And we have said that this was unusually high due to low growth in second and third quarter, and we've guided this to become below EUR 7 for Q1 and reducing from there. Operating EBIT, negative EUR 3.9 million and profit for the period, positive EUR 357,000 after financial items and depreciation and tax. Our net cash flow was positive EUR 6.6 million, reflecting, obviously, the capital injection, reduction of debt, investment in Stage 2 of EUR 7.6 million, where we now have reached EUR 47.5 million in aggregate and also investment in increased biomass in addition to operating items. So the biomass was EUR 25.9 million at the end of the quarter, including fair value adjustments of EUR 4.4 million. Equity, EUR 104 million or 58% of a balance of EUR 179 million. Net interest-bearing debt, EUR 18 million, a sharp reduction from EUR 38.6 million in the quarter before. Then as reported previously and mentioned by Ragnar, we entered a strategic and long-term agreement with local owners in Nordic Aqua Ningbo and also with refinancing with the syndicate of Chinese banks. This will offer strategic and operational synergies and local government access and support going forward. It will refinance the existing debt, which we had with Eksfin and Rabobank and also some short-term bridge facilities. And we have created this financial base with local banks and local currency going forward. And we have said that in the future, we will look at potentially listing the Chinese entity in China or Hong Kong. So if you dive into the debt side of this transaction first, looking at the bank side. We have a syndicated loan facility for RMB 385 million or EUR 46 million with a relatively large syndicate of Chinese banks. It's a long-term 9-year term facility. It's, I would say, relatively covenant light. It has 1.5-year approx. grace period before installments and it has an all-in borrowing cost of well below 4%. At the end of the quarter, we had drawn EUR 150 million of the facility and we will draw the rest during 2026. Then we have a working capital facility of EUR 200 million, which is partly subscribed already, and we will continue working on that into Q2 with the ambition to complete it during the summer. And also both the equity side and the bank transactions has a potential to, of course, cover the investments in Stage 3 when we get to that. And then again, as reported previously, we received approximately EUR 36 million or RMB 300 million for a 20% stake in our Chinese subsidiary. The 20% is divided by one, 18% and one, 2%, and these are 2 significant Chinese state-owned entities with a local presence. This offers, of course, the benefit of supporting the execution of the expansion to 20,000 tonnes and the operational synergies. And it sort of solidifies the local borrowing base and our ability to finance further growth. Thank you.

Thank you, Tom. And then finally, we go to the outlook and summary. If we start with the outlook, we can see that, that the market is still going strong, very good performance or high volumes imported also during the first quarter. Harvest for us during the first quarter estimated to be between 700 and 900 tonnes, and the average weight now is at 4.5 kilo HOG. So we have larger sizes again now. For the year, 5,000 to 6,000 tonnes. And prices have come up even though not as high as some predicted a few months ago, but still up. Cost, we can see from our cost base also that our costs are coming down. We will be below EUR 7 now released cost from stock during Q1 and also further decreasing during the year. Production is also coming up, and we expect to be on full run rate for Q2 during second half this year in Stage 2. Financing, as explained just by Tom and the project, we will be doing some detailed engineering for Stage 3, but not initiating construction immediately. So just to sum up what we have presented today, we can see that the harvest of smaller fish so that we can be better prepared into stage or into 2026. Production has come up. Financing, we could say that first part now is finalized. We're working on the working capital and project for Stage 2 has been developing very well. So with this, I would like to conclude our presentation, and we are ready to have some questions. Please, if you have any questions, you're welcome to write them down and then -- and we will take them. As there has always been some delay during these questions, we can just wait a little bit until we go out, but we can see that there are some questions already that have entered. Thank you. Yes, please.

Okay. I can read the questions and then we can -- I can read the questions and then we can see we should answer. So we have -- the first question here is when do you plan to reach 5.8 kilo HOG?

Yes. We have increased sizes now. So we're at 4.5 at the moment, and we will increase during the year. We can see also now that there has been some change in the market so that maybe we will take the goal a little bit down from 5.8 down to 5.5, 5.4, and that we will enter during 2026.

And that one, when do you think you'll have a positive operating EBIT?

Of course, we can say now that our cost is coming down. And it's difficult. It shows to be very difficult to predict the prices. So it's difficult to predict when we will become positive. But we're at least taking the cost level down so that it should be easier to reach that quite soon.

I'll continue to read. And it says, you mentioned a strong biomass development in the beginning of '26. Can you comment on the net biomass growth on daily feeding year-to-date?

Yes. I mean -- the development into 2026 has continued at the same strong level that we ended in December. So we have been at quite high feeding levels during the first part of this quarter. So if we say that we are averaging at least above 25 tonnes per day, maybe closer to 30, that's somewhere like that of tonnes per day of feeding.

And the last one so far, can you comment on the feed conversion ratio development as you are increasing targeted harvest rates?

Yes. I mean the feed conversion ratio has been somewhat higher than we expected because we have had some periods with lower growth, especially during 2024 and also Q2 in 2025. But if we take that out, then we are at a feed conversion ratio at yes, between 1.1 and 1.2. But with those in, we are a little bit higher than that. But that's also well-known during maintenance feeding that it's been -- you will get a higher FCR.

Yes. I think that's...

That concludes the questions for this time. Okay, then I think we will just say thank you very much for listening, and we will be back with Q1 in May. Thank you.