NORMA Group SE (NOEJ) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, a warm welcome to NORMA Group's Analyst Conference Call Q1 2021. I will give, together with my colleague Annette Stieve, our CFO, an overview on the development in the first quarter. And of course, we then are happy to take your questions. Overall, looking on the Page 2 of the distributed presentation, Facts & Figures, overall, in view of the still critical crisis situation, we had a good Q1 2021. We are overall well on track, and we will give couple of comments on that. If you look on the sales growth in the first quarter, we grew our sales by 13% to a level of EUR 286 million, which is an organic growth of 17.8% and an organic -- or excuse me, a currency effect of 4.9%. We generated, out of these EUR 286 million of sales, an adjusted EBITA of nearly EUR 40 million, EUR 39.5 million, which is an increase of more than 45% and an EBITA margin -- EBITA margin adjusted of 13.8%. We steadily go to a more, let's say, common figure, adjusted EBIT. Adjusted EBIT is at nearly EUR 37 million, which is an increase of 47% and the margin of nearly 13%, 12.9% in the first quarter 2021. The net operating cash flow, typically weak in the first quarter of a year, is at EUR 2.5 million in Q1. The balance sheet ratios, equity ratio further improved to more than 42%, 42.5%, which is a slight increase also versus December 31. And our net debt is at EUR 352 million, which is a slight increase versus the status in December last year. Regarding dividend, we will propose a dividend of EUR 0.70 per share which will be confirmed, has to be confirmed, at the Annual General Meeting, which takes place on May 20, in a couple of days. Going a bit more in detail to the top line on Page 3. We see, once again, this EUR 286 million that we reached in Q1. Overall, an increase of EUR 32.9 million, plus 13%. And the organic growth of 13.8% that I mentioned is due to a significant contribution by all regions in all areas. The EJT sales, Engineered Joining Technology, showed good recovery versus last year Q1 and increased by 17.5%. And also the standardized products, Standardized Joining Technology, also shows a very good development, a very good recovery, meaning an increase of 18.3% in the first quarter. While we have, as mentioned, negative currency effects of minus EUR 12.3 million, which is 4.9%, minus 4.9% of sales. You see on that Page 3, also the regional split, where we see an increase in regional sales in percentage of the group sales in Asia Pacific and a slight reduction in Americas while the stake of the EMEA business is quite stable. If you look on Page 4, a little bit more details in the sales per segment, sales per region. We see for EMEA that we have net sales in the first quarter of EUR 132 million, which is an increase of 12.4% and an organic growth of 12.2%. Both EJT and Standardized products showed a double-digit growth due to an increase in production in both business areas which is a very good development to the overall group level. In Americas, on the right-hand side, we saw EUR 109 million in the first quarter in sales, an increase of 5.1%; organically, 15.6%. So we have a significant negative currency effect in Americas and a very good high single-digit growth in demand in the EJT business and a very strong double-digit Standard Joining Technology growth, which includes especially the NDS water management sales that increased versus last year by nearly 30%, 29.9%. APAC region, we have especially strong recovery of APAC region after the Q1 2020, which was in APAC already impacted by the COVID-19-related lockdown. And so far, we saw a steep increase in the first quarter, 40.3%. Sales increase, which is on an organic basis, more than 45% -- 45.4%. In terms of margin, just a general overview before I hand over to Annette, the margin in Q1, EBITA margin, 13.8%. EBIT margin, 12.9%, which is a good development versus last year, which shows we are, together with the sales increase, well on track for the first quarter, and the economic recovery and a strict cost control resulting in a relatively strong Q1 margin and a confirming of our guidance for the full year is on a very good track. And so far, with that, I will hand over to Annette, our CFO, who will now give a more detailed view on the financial figures. Annette?

Thank you, Michael. Thank you. So let's have a look -- a bit a closer look to our P&L development and to the ratios. So first of all, concentrating on the material costs, we could achieve to keep the material costs ratio absolutely stable and the gross profit ratio almost stable despite an increasing material price environment and really a tough market environment in general, which shows at the end that our sales and purchase departments did all a tremendous job in the recent months, but also years, in order to prepare a position like this. Personnel expenses, we could improve the personnel cost ratio there, mainly due to less full-time workers and personnel. In this case, having a look to the OpEx, to our OpEx ratio, you could see that we here slightly increased. This is mainly due to a higher number of temp workers, and extraordinary costs, like, for example, extra shifts, mainly due to, on the one hand, the higher growth, and on the other hand, we are in an ongoing restructuring activity. Well, all in all, these economic recovery and also, in particular, the strict cost management brought us in a position to really deliver for Q1 relatively strong EBIT margin of 13.8% and a strong EBIT margin of 12.9%. Our operational adjustments show now that on EBITDA level -- EBITDA level, we don't have any adjustments anymore, which means we have really -- because our Get on track change program is not adjusted anymore or we don't adjust that. So this brings us to the position that we have in the adjustments we are showing here, is all referring to prior M&As and classical ones like depreciation, amortization or tax effects. When I look now to the earnings per share, you could see that we stepped up in the adjusted earnings per share in Q1 '21 compared to the prior period from EUR 0.49 to EUR 0.76 in terms of our reported EPS from EUR 0.34 to EUR 0.63. And and Michael already spoke about our dividend. In the last year, we issued this minimum dividend of EUR 0.04. And we propose now a dividend of EUR 0.70 to our AGM, which means this is 92% of the adjusted group net profit income, but at the end, it's also an average of both of the years of roughly something around 47%. Our net debt and equity ratios shows a very strong and solid position. Our net debt slightly increased, mainly due to a decreased cash, which is seasonal for the first quarter. So therefore, we can see here anyway that we still have a very strong cash position on the balance sheet of EUR 177 million. This is -- so in this case, really due to a financing of a remarkable growth. Looking to our equity ratio. We could improve the equity ratio from 41.7% to 42.5%. Our leverage is improved in this moment from 3.4 to 3.1. And the most important leverage for us is, in this case, the financing leverage where we, in this case, adjust our Get on track costs, and this brings us in a position that we show now, a leverage financing contracts and covenants of 2.5. All in all, in a nutshell, we can say here, I think we are very well prepared for any kind of future operating business and the motto can be all eyes on '21 and beyond. The cash flow development of Q1 shows we are starting with a EUR 15.1 million higher EBITDA. Our trade working capital outflow increased due to a strong growth, and this is mainly, at the end, the step-up in accounts receivables due to higher sales in the months before and not at all due to higher overdues, which is very important for us. Our investment initiatives increased as well. So increased investments from operating business reflect that we go higher in business activities, and this is showing our CapEx, which already started in Q4 2020. This is impacted by a very slight increase in supply chain financing of EUR 0.9 million, so EUR 900,000 increase. So we kept supply chain financing nearly stable compared with the year-end. Concentrating on our NORMA value added, which is NORMA's long-term strategic target, we could improve from minus EUR 2.5 million to EUR 9.3 million. These are the main financial figures, and I'm happy to give over to Michael to bring you through.

Thanks, Annette. Ladies and gentlemen, as I mentioned earlier, Q1 2021 shows that we are well on track, and we also show that in the company guidance that we confirm. And so far, overall, we see organic sales for the full year in the low double-digit area, an adjusted EBITA margin of more than 13%. And referring to the EBIT margin, more than 12%. Net operating cash flow of EUR 110 million plus. And NORMA value-added between EUR 10 million and EUR 25 million. And after the first quarter, we are very confident that we will go back that way to be on track, and the Q1 confirms that we are on a good way to reach our guidance and our targets. Thank you very much. So far, an overview on our situation in Q1 2021. And of course, happy to get your questions and discuss with you.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is by Ingo Schachel of Commerzbank.

My first one would be on the very impressive growth rate of NDS in the quarter. I think you must have done a very strong effort in selling your products. So I was just wondering whether you could give us a bit more detail, for example, on how much of the growth would be volume-driven versus price-driven. And whether you think that your, let's say, selling efforts in the quarter have more or less triggered a pre buying and we should expect a weaker second quarter. Or whether you think that you have successfully just increased the business volume of the segment sustainable for the next quarters? And I'm not sure that you have a view on the reopening impact on this business, it's probably hard to predict, but maybe you already have done some market research. Have already, let's say, made some observations in certain U.S. states that have already opened up a bit. How strongly you would expect such a growth rate to decline in a scenario of reopening in the next quarters?

Yes. Thanks, Ingo, for that question. And yes, indeed, has a very strong development. And as goes that growth path as it did in the last years. If we -- when we look on the Q1 2021 figures of 29.9% organic growth, you must see 2 aspects. The first aspect is we had a couple of sales volume and pricing activities in Q1 that we started, where we typically see price increases over the year of maybe 2%, 2.5%, around 2% in that extent. So that's roughly the pricing impact for the year. Let's say something around 2%. We have a second -- and some volume activities. We have a second topic, which is a, let's say, pre-year comparison impact. The first quarter 2020 was not too strong for NDS because they had a very strong development in Q4 '19, with a weaker Q1 2020. And this is also the basis impact if you compare to Q1 last year. So these 2 topics, we have to keep in mind interpretating the NDS growth rate of nearly 30%. I would love to see that rate for the full year, but you have to be very cautious. Please do not take this 30% for the full year. Of course, we have these 2 special impacts. But looking on the full year for NDS and water management business, we see a very good growth overall.

And with, I think, very strong growth for several years, of course, the revenue level is much higher than at the time of the acquisition. Can you comment a bit on how much production optimization or also CapEx requirements you see for the business? I think we've never been able to do a Capital Markets Day or site visit to the production site. We're just wondering whether starting to reach capacity limits, where you have to step up investments and efficiency improvements there. Or is it still -- still running rather smoothly? How do you see it from a profitability and a performance perspective?

It's running very smoothly. We also started to produce NDS products, meanwhile, in Mexico. So we have a, let's say, flexibility and production capacity in Mexico as well. So that we have the right resource, the right overall CapEx and capacities for handling that growth. We do not see a structural need for a structural shift in CapEx. This is what we prepared over the last couple of years, with also production facilities in Mexico additionally. And so far, we are very well prepared on that area as well.

Okay. And just a very quick one on your net working capital. Can you give us any indication as to how much net working capital buildup, especially inventory buildup, in light of the higher activity and higher metal prices we should expect in the second quarter?

I wouldn't see a significant impact currently from the metal prices. If you look on the working capital side, it's volume-driven. If you look into our sales growth in the first quarter, it's mostly volume-driven.

The next question is by Philippe Lorrain of Berenberg.

A couple of questions from my side on the raw mats mainly. You mentioned in your remarks on your slides that the material costs ratio was almost stable despite increased material prices in a tough market environment. If I'm not mistaken, you should be well protected currently by the fact that volume growth is on par with your budget and probably with supply volumes you agreed on with your suppliers at the end of 2020. So is that correct? And perhaps as a related question, how are your contracts structured? Are you going to be able to be, as long as you're not out of your budget range, are going to be protected completely in terms of the prices that you get from your suppliers? Or is there any kind of, let's say, room for them to increase prices as well?

So all in all, I think that we have to look to the different businesses. All in all, we are well protected by long-term contracts, which are mostly lasting between 9 to 12 months, something like that. So therefore, for the time being, I think, we told you already, we are well protected. But with this material cost ratio, I think we proved already in the first 3 months that we are. On top, we did some homework also in our sales contracts where we put in newer sales contracts the phrase that we can give the step-up in pricing further to the customer. However, that is, at the end, the automotive business. And when we look to DS business and here, in particular, also to water business, the market is, for the time being, absorbing our price increases pretty well. What has been shown already in the water business in the first quarter, there we increased prices. And I think it brought us really added value and not on -- no impact on the quantities.

And Philippe, you see the big -- one of the big advantages of NORMA, if you look into our business structure, where we have 45 -- around 45% of automotive business. And the whole Standardized Joining Technology business, we use once, twice a year for increasing our prices, as we did for NDS, which is, overall for the business, a huge advantage that we can use. And this is what we did.

Okay. I understand. And just another quick question on your NOVA calculation. I mean, since you've shown that a bit more precisely in the presentations, it's really appeared that you're always using previous year's capital employed calculation for measuring your NOVA. Would you think about perhaps at some point also taking an average capital employed calculation, especially if you start doing some M&A again? Because one could criticize the fact that earnings go up if you are consolidating other companies. But in the case of the NOVA calculation, you would be still using the capital employed at your end of the previous year.

Well, if you look on the NOVA calculation, we take equity plus net debt at the end of the year before. Well, when I worked still at the university, which is a few years ago, there can be a philosophy in discussing -- if you take average capital employed or if you take capital employed of the year before, there is a discussion you can use. We decided to have the capital employed of the 31st of December the year before. It doesn't move the needle too much if you do not have some structural changes in capital employed. And if we have some M&A activities, again, we, for sure, have to think about the right definition of capital employed. For the time being, in these, let's say, normal times, we feel quite well with that definition.

The next question is by Peter Rothenaicher of Baader Bank.

Yes. Firstly, one question on the employees. So if I look at segment reporting, in EMEA, the number of employees increased relatively strong. While on the other hand, in Asia Pacific, this was down despite the very strong growth. Can you explain what is behind that? And how does it fit, in general, to your Get on track program to have now a considerably higher number of employees in Europe?

Peter, thanks a lot for that question. Two aspects looking into Europe. First of all, we mentioned that we will transfer business from a location in Germany, Gerbershausen, to Czech and to Maintal. This is in preparation, and in such a preparation phase, you have some employees that you have in the old location and in the new location to build up, so this is one topic. On the other side, we have a significant increase in the volume side as well as we showed for other regions, but especially in EMEA, so volume increase, and the preparation of shift of locations and closing of the Gerbershausen location end of 2022 as we prepared -- as we communicated. And with the preparation of Czech and the Maintal location.

Okay. Then can you perhaps comment a little bit on your single target market. On the 1 hand, how is the trend in the trucks business? So in North America, have you already experienced here in the first quarter significant growth? May this be a driver for the rest of the year?

Well, the truck business, heavy vehicles business in the U.S., if you look on this -- on the LMC figures, according to LMC figures, it went up around 4% -- excuse me, 9%, nearly -- no, 4% in Q1 2021. Where we saw that development, if we take the full -- in Americas, if you take the full picture on the U.S. purely, it's nearly 9% in Q1. And overall, 26.7% increase versus 2021. So what we see currently, from a volume side as well, is that we expect, especially Q3, Q4, volumes increasing to 110,000, 115,000 units in quarter 3, 4, currently coming from nearly 98,000 units. So more related growth to Q3, Q4.

Okay. And then in your automotive business, what do you currently experience in terms of e-mobility demand? Hybrid cars, to what extent has this driven your sales growth in the first quarter?

Well in the first quarter, well, overall, we see a very good development in the e-mobility area. When we are looking into our book business, there is a significant portion meanwhile, in e-mobility areas, which we define as plug-in hybrid, battery electric vehicles and maybe some prototypes for fuel cells. So there's a good development overall in the book business. We had also in the first quarter 2021 a significant increase in e-mobility in the first quarter, where we have, for example, if we take China, Asia Pacific, mainly [indiscernible], Asia Pacific by China, where our e-mobility portion went up from 3% to 9% in the first quarter 2021. So we see a significant increase in serial business and a significant increase also in future book business.

Okay. And in terms of content you deliver per car, can you give us here a rough figure what this trend to what hybrid car had an impact?

Well, what we see in our sales development are these 2 aspects, it's a volume aspect and a content per vehicle part, the higher number of plug-in hybrids that we sell. We also see this positive impact of hybrid cars having a higher content per vehicle of around 30%, 40% versus a combustion engine. This is what we are seeing positively in the sales development. And what we also are seeing is that our products for e-mobility applications increase. The number of products is increasing. The number of applications is increasing for different customers, for different battery types. And so far, we also expect regarding the share of e-mobility in our sales a very good development this year and the next years based on content per vehicle and on volumes that go into e-mobility applications.

And my last question is on [ firsthand ] competitive situation and M&A opportunities. So now I think as you have the measure -- the demand or measures taken in terms of Get on track, I think you have now also more time to focus on M&A. What is currently the situation? Is there opportunity that we will see, in the course of 2021, some acquisitions? And on the other hand, in terms of the competitive situation, do you see here that some of your competitors are struggling and you may have the opportunity to take over projects and to increase your market share?

Well, Peter, that's a very important aspect for us. We increased our intensity in looking into M&A targets. We have a clear short list and a long list. And the most important is, after an excellent crisis management and the measures of Get on track that are efficiently put in place, we have an excellent financial basis for doing these M&A activities. But and that's important, we want to focus on the right strategic M&A activities. There are a couple of competitive or competitors, as you mentioned, in that situation that may be struggling. But we have to see, if they are struggling, are these the right strategic targets for us? And so far, there might be some chances out of this more difficult competitive situation where NORMA Group significantly improved in terms of competitive advantages. But we would be very cautious in buying a target that is struggling because of a tough situation. We are focusing on our strategic business units, which is water in the first place, which is industry applications and mobility and new energy, on these targets that bring us forward on our strategic journey, and this is what we do, and this is where we have the basis for.

The next question is by Nicolai Kempf of Deutsche Bank.

My first question will be on the semiconductor shortage. I mean, Ford has made some big cuts and also added certain OEMs with the truck OEMs and I think also the VDA has just lowered its forecast today. Can you just highlight how you see impact in the first quarter? And what your expectation is for the remainder of the year?

Yes. Nicolai, surely a question that is every day in the press and where we are also sensitive for the topic. Nevertheless, what we see so far, that in the area of our customers, there is a very broad range of customers. There are customers that have some problems out of that semiconductor shortage. There are other customers maybe with a different purchasing strategy and with a different supply chain that are not so heavily impacted. Overall, we see a minor impact from our point of view, which is less than around 1% of our forecasted expectation in sales. And so far, we see the impact, it's a minor impact for us. And we expect in the second half year that we have a shift into the second half year of sales. So overall, for the full year, no major impact for us.

Yes. I mean, I had to ask this question [indiscernible].

So short term, somehow we even [ positively debate ] out of it because, at the end, all the OEMs who have still stock of chips, they prefer to sell premium cars where we have a bigger content. So this is even boosting our sales a bit in terms of hybrid, but also in terms of -- you have to buy the bigger navigation system, not the small ones. So we participate all of that.

Yes. That's actually my second question. I mean, I understand your mix was good because for OEMs are [ rather ] producing the premium models. But would there be a risk in the second half? I mean, you have more volumes, but maybe less content per vehicle because we're rather an entry model or [indiscernible] volume?

No, I wouldn't see that risk at all in the second half year because of the content per vehicle, what we see is that content per vehicle with a higher number of hybrids and even in the e-mobility applications, is fine for us. This risk, I wouldn't see for the second half year.

The next question is by Sanjay Bhagwani of Bank of America.

Yes. I think you briefly answered my question, just the previous question with Nicolai. So I guess my question is that given that now, let's say, all the OEMs are prioritizing higher value and the premium products, and given that NORMA has much higher content in the premium car versus the mass market car. So has this mix actually surprised you in quarter 1 versus what you had expected at the beginning of the year?

Well, we are very well in our expectations that we expected for 2021 and even for the first quarter. And so far, I think what we saw is a consequent development within our expectation. And so far, we also stick to our overall guidance for 2021.

On top, I would say the basic message that there is a shortage in semiconductors reached us before we guided. So there is a certain impact already, we took already a certain impact in our guidance where we protected ourselves and took that into account.

Okay. So let's say if this mix effect continues for the rest of the year, would that be a positive surprise for your guidance? Or you already have quite a positive assumptions for that baked in your guidance?

It wouldn't change the structure overall. So if you look into the sales structure, what we expect and what we will have, we do not see a significant shift in that sales structure. And so far, we are in the range of our expectations for the full year.

And just a follow-up on the semis. Given that the visibility is very low, to what extent, let's say, have you accounted for the worst scenario in your, let's say, light vehicle production forecast? For example, let's say, IHS was expecting around 13%, 14% at the beginning of the year, now it has gone down to 11%. So to what extent is the worst scenario also you have captured? Let's say, even if the production is down another 3% or 4% than expected, then would you still be able to meet the margin guidance?

Well, I think at the end -- Michael already answered that. So at the end, I think we had a certain assumption for our guidance. And for the time being, what we expect is shown in our guidance. I think much more we can't say for the time being without doing [indiscernible].

The next question is by Richard Schramm of HSBC.

My first question would be, how far would you estimate have some restocking effects influenced your Q1 performance here on the customer side?

Well, there might be a certain restocking effect, but that's not the major driver. Of course, there is some restocking if you go in such a growth period, but that's not the major driver for us.

This is mostly the driver in the SJT business. And this we see for the time being, as they destocked last year, we are happy that they take sufficient stock on board in order to offer our products.

Okay. So in fact, it was not material, so maybe 1 or 2 percentage points, but not more. Would that be a fair assumption?

Well, it's hard to calculate that in terms of 1%, 2%. It's, of course -- for sure, it's not material. Overall, the impact from the restocking effect, if you take 1%, 2% or 3%, that probably is nearly the same figure.

At the end, it shows the current recovery of the SJT or what we call it in prior years the DS business. This is the current recovery. At the end, the distributors put stocks in order to offer our products, by the assumption that they will sell them better, for sure.

Okay. And then a question on Asia Pacific. So here, I was surprised about the strong earnings contribution from this area, which led to margin, yes, which as far as I see was a record one for the last couple of quarters. So was there any special effect involved there besides the clear volume recovery?

No, Richard, there's no special effect. What we see is what Andreas and myself communicated over the last years. What we see is that as long as we have the volumes coming in that region, we also will get better margins. This is the communication in the last years. And what we currently see is that we have a very good volume development already last year and even this year. So that we are happy to have that higher business volume in Asia Pacific with the right structures, with the right products, with the right customers overall, increasingly local customers. And this all is reflected in the further improved situation of our business in Asia Pacific.

Okay. And also related to Asia Pacific, the strong start in Q1 was quite obviously also driven by this basis effect. But your full year guidance is only for single-digit organic growth, if I have seen it correctly, which would mean just calculating forward that we would see no growth at all in the coming quarters. Isn't that a too conservative assumption? What's wrong with the market there?

I don't think that the market there is wrong, I think we will have a good development in Asia Pacific. We must be aware that we cannot take the growth rates of Q1. Asia Pacific was hit very much in Q1 2020 by this corona crisis. And so far, the growth rates versus Q1 in Asia Pacific might mislead a little bit because of that impact in Q1 2020 in that region. Overall, we have a very good development in Asia Pacific based on the product and customer structure. But I would not take the Q1 growth rate and linearly expect that for the full year because we have that structural effect versus last year overall independent from the growth rate versus last year's first quarter, an excellent development also in APAC.

Their recovery came already immediately in Q2 already last year. So we are comparing then a higher basis already for prior year's figures in the future.

Currently, there are no further questions. So I hand back to you.

Yes. Thank you very much for participating our Q1 2021 analyst call. Thanks for your participation. Thanks for your questions. Thanks for the discussion. Please keep in mind, we are well on track and the figures in Q1 2021 show that. And of course, we confirm our guidance and are very optimistic in the short-term and long-term development. And so far, happy to talk to you next time. And the most important issue is stay healthy. Thank you very much for participating.