Northam Platinum Holdings Limited (NPH) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Okay. Good morning, everybody. It is now 11:00, and thank you for joining us at the Northam Results Presentation for the Year Ended June 2024. Welcome to our Chairman, Temba Mvusi and our other Board members, Emily, Geralda and Hester are here, our lead independent. Off the bat, I would like to thank Temba for his wise counsel and outstanding leadership of the Northam Board, and we wish him well in his seat at Sanlam. Welcome to those of you on the lines and a special welcome to those who've managed to join us in person. The presentation, together with our reporting suite are all available on the website this morning. Thank you once again to the team for preparing such a comprehensive set of documentation. It's really looking good, Alet. As always, we'd like to describe the pictures on the slides. This one is not a picture. It appears very abstract. It actually shows the contour lines of the UG2 orebody at Booysendal. And as you can see, it's boringly uniform. This is exactly what you would want from a tabular orebody. Here is the usual disclaimer and talks about forward-looking statements that we might make today. Please read it in your own time. I'll review some of the key features of the past year in which each of our 3 mines have performed very well. And we've made further progress in the development of Eland mine, the 3 shaft projects at Zondereinde, upgrades to our metallurgical facilities as well as the scheduled rebuild of number 2 furnace. Alet will then take us through the financials. And finally, I'll provide guidance for 2025, and then we'll move to Q&A. This picture shows the sun rising over the headgear at Zondereinde 3 shaft, the combination of an exceptional orebody together with the logistical benefits of 3 shaft bodes very well for this world-class operation. Our strong operational performance allowed us to once again post record production and record sales volumes. And despite further weakening in metal prices, we generated revenue of ZAR 30.8 billion. The environment of higher inflation and weak prices has continued. And in response, we have trimmed the elective capital expenditure in a manner that minimizes the impact on the project milestones. In light of the high degree of uncertainty in the current metals markets, we will continue to be internally focused and we place high emphasis on safe production, efficient mining and at the right cost. Cash conservation and preservation remain particular focus areas. The Board has declared a final dividend of ZAR 0.70 per share, bringing the total dividend for the year to ZAR 1.70. As we have said many times, mining first, metallurgy second. And we're not doing the metallurgists in here. It's a reflection of risk in our business. Most of the business risk lies underground. We're gradually now shifting the focus of our strategy from mining to processing. And in order to maximize the economic benefit of the mining effort, we are affecting expansions across our primary and downstream processing facilities, improving both throughput, recovery and yield. This is a picture of one such initiative. It's an extension of the chrome recovery plant at our Booysendal South concentrator, in this case, and it has improved overall chrome yields by 7%. Booysendal is expected to produce 770,000 tonnes of chrome concentrate for FY '25. The importance of owning the full value stream of our chrome byproduct has become very apparent over the last few years. If we can now move on to the mining operations and firstly, safety. This remains a key focus area for the group and we're pleased to report an overall improved performance for the year gone. The group remained fatality-free throughout the year. And Booysendal and Zondereinde recorded 10 and 4 million fatality-free shifts, respectively, during July. They are wonderful achievements. Eland surpassed 2 million fatality-free shifts in April. But sadly, this month, August, one of our contractor employees passed away at Eland. It was a fall of ground incident whilst Mr. Satoli was busy applying shotcrete. The Board extends condolences to Mr. Satoli's family and friends and we are very sad, actually, to lose our colleague in what was a preventable accident. We remain vigilant and engaged on all matters related to the health and safety of our employees as a Board. Looking at some of the operational metrics at group level. Tonnes milled increased by 5.8%, whilst mined metal production grew by 10.3% and total refined metal increased by 5.3%. The planned rebuild of our number 2 furnace has been successful with first slag tapped on the 23rd of August, and we're currently running at 12 megawatts this morning. The rebuild was timed in order to, as far as possible, minimize the sales impact on both the 2024 and the 2025 financial years. And we finished the year with elevated concentrate stocks as a result, which I'll touch on later. Despite generally higher mining inflation, and the ramp-up at the Eland, we've managed to limit the increase in cash cost per 4E ounce to 4.3%, which is a very creditable performance. However, our cash margin decreased to 15.7%, reflecting the significantly lower metal prices. Chrome production improved by 24% and with higher UG2 tonnages treated and improving chrome yields at all operations. Now I'll move on to discuss the mines individually. And firstly is Zondereinde. Bedding down Merensky mining in the Western extension as well as the migration of UG2 mining to the East, led to a marginal reduction in milled tonnage, but this was more than offset by grade improvements, particularly on the UG2. This led to a slight improved production of 328,000 4E ounces. And this, together with good cost control, limited the increase in unit costs to a creditable 5%. The completion of number 3 shaft towards the end of 2025 will lead to further productivity gains in the future. A decline in metal prices, however, led to a lower cash margin of 17.2%. Capital expenditure at Zondereinde was limited to ZAR 2.3 billion and applied to work on number 3 shaft, upgrades to the base metal refinery, the recently commissioned furnace slag plant, a PGM Scavenger plant and the rebuild of number 2 furnace at year-end. Here, in fact, is a picture of the furnace showing detail of the copper cooling elements. It's always good to see. This is post-rebuild, of course, the furnace is now being brought back into production successfully. Moving on to Booysendal. We have now exceeded steady-state volumes and all operating sections of the mine are contributing. In line with expectations, milled tonnage grew by 7.5%, whilst grades improved by 6.5%. Split reef persists, of course, at an average of 8%, and this has been managed. In light of current market conditions, mining has been suspended at the South Merensky module and reserves will be mined from the North Merensky module for the time being. Mine tonnages are currently exceeding milling capacity. And this led to an accumulation of run of mine ore of 460,000 tonnes, quite a sizable stockpile. Work continues on expanding plant capacity and implementation of dry stacking at the tailings dam. We are also awaiting permitting from government for the expansion of the South tailings dam, and this is the remaining bottleneck for an increase to the milling rate. Overall, metal production at Booysendal improved by 13%, limiting the unit cost increase to a creditable 4.4%. Booysendal posted an operating profit of ZAR 4.6 billion. That's a cash margin of 41% despite the material decline in metal prices. Capital expenditure at Booysendal was ZAR 1.3 billion, pretty much all-sustaining CapEx as the expansion is pretty much complete on time, on budget and all in all, a very successful mining project. Incidentally, it's taken 12 years and a lot of determination to build this mine. And I'd like to thank the Booysendal team and the project support that have done a sterling job over a number of years now. Anybody thinks you're going to build a mine in 5 years, I wish you luck. At Eland, the mining ramp-up has begun in earnest. We now have 26 production teams on the face, which will eventually grow to 64 teams at steady state. Underground tonnage has increased on schedule and concentrator recoveries improved significantly as the run of mine hit the mill. We produced 69,000 ounces in concentrate, together with a further 49,000 ounces from third parties. Unit cash cost improved to ZAR 34,600 per 4E ounce driven by the volume increase. Eland will become a significant chrome producer in the coming years with chrome yields reaching 23% at year-end. And we forecast 200,000 tonnes of saleable chrome from this operation in 2025. In order to preserve cash, we did temporarily stop decline development, which deferred capital. Decline development has now been recommenced in July. This is a picture of the new and large nickel sulfate crystallizer. It's not often we look at the refinery. This is in the base metal removal plant and it's scheduled for commissioning in September. This is the final part of aligning the capacity of the process streams in the metallurgical complex at Zondereinde. We built significant stock as our production base has grown. And at year-end, this included over 600,000 tonnes of run of mine in front of the various mills, 800,000 tonnes of furnace lag and 25,000 tonnes of concentrate ahead of number 2 furnace post-shutdown, of course. This year has seen a considerable investment in the processing area and we're nearly there with the metallurgical upgrades. Once complete, this will allow us to convert the full mining effort into cash with the final push to 1 million-ounce sales expected in the coming year. Current market conditions demand a cost response. And at group level, we have a moratorium on recruitment, except for essential, safety and line production-related occupations. At Zondereinde, we've delayed long-dated surface infrastructure at 3 shaft. We've reduced raise-boring to 1 machine only, previously 2. We've halted development below the 17 level tips. At Booysendal, the second Merensky module was mothballed, and decline developments of BS4 has been suspended. At Eland, Kukama decline development has been scheduled on a just-in-time basis with long-dated surface infrastructure also delayed. These measures do not materially compromise timelines. However, there is a compromise on future costs of this project as, of course, escalation kicks in against the delayed expenditure. We will continue to apply prudent cost management at all of the operations with one eye on the market, and we'll adjust our response accordingly. The provision of power remains critical. And in spite of the current reduction in load shedding by Eskom, we remain of our view that this continues to present a high risk to the mining industry and that Eskom tariff hikes will remain significantly above CPI. At Zondereinde, the combination of our on-site diesel generator fleet together with renewable energy initiatives remains critical to both energy security and managing the cost of power. This is a picture of the newly commissioned generators at Zondereinde. You can see all 6 sets. Each of them is 4.6 megawatts. We've completed similar upgrades at Booysendal and Eland and we're now able to operate uninterrupted under Level 4 curtailment conditions across the group. This is equivalent to domestic-level load shedding 6. In addition, we've entered into a power purchase agreement with an independent power producer for an 80-megawatt solar farm at Zondereinde. This will improve operational resilience and our cost position. I'll now hand you over to Alet to take you through the financials. Thanks, Alet.

Thank you, Paul. Good morning, everybody. The focus of our growth strategy is developing, moving from building and diversifying our mining assets to expanding and optimizing our processing capacity. Our growth has necessitated an increase in the inventory we carry. This inventory is unencumbered and we own its full value. Some of it sits within our furnaces and this will remain, but we are enacting plans to work through other stocks, one of which is our slag stockpile, and we recently commissioned our new slag plant. This is a picture of the milling section of that plant with a slag stockpile in the background. We forecast to work through the 800,000 tonnes of slag over the next 4 years, adding approximately 15,000 ounces per year. Looking at the key financial features for the year under review. Under the prevailing PGM market conditions and without a clear signal for improvement, we remain inwardly focused, placing even more emphasis on operational efficiencies, productivity and cost control. The scale, flexibility and resilience afforded by our growth strategy, have gone a long way towards allowing us to benefit from that focus. In spite of softer metal prices, our growth in metal production and sales volumes led to sales revenue of ZAR 30.8 billion. And our focus on costs allowed us to post an operating profit, albeit significantly reduced from 2023. EBITDA was similarly affected. But despite this, the sale of our investments in RBPlat and Implats allowed us to reduce net debt to ZAR 3.1 billion whilst continuing to invest in organic growth. Basic earnings per share and headline earnings per share for the year amounted to ZAR 4.61 and ZAR 4.45 respectively. The requirements for headline earnings do not allow the add-back of the loss on sale of Impala shares. This negatively impacted headline earnings by just more than ZAR 2 per share. However, in order to maximize the return of value to shareholders we eliminated this loss in our calculation for dividends. Looking now at revenue. Revenue for the year was ZAR 30.8 billion, as an ZAR 8.7 billion or a 22.2% decrease on the previous year which was wholly the result of a material reduction in the average U.S. 4E basket price and is despite a 7.3% increase in sales volumes in line with our previous guidance as well as a 5.2% weakening of the rand against the U.S. dollar. We caution that continuing weakness in metal prices is placing significant pressure on revenue and therefore, profitability. In addition, it is also important to note that sales for the coming year will be a lopsided due to the furnace rebuild conservatively estimated at around a 40-60 split. The benefit of the full mine-to-market value chain for chrome is clear. We produced and sold around 1.3 million tonnes of chrome for the year. And this contributed 12.5% or ZAR 3.8 billion to our revenue. Looking now at cost of sales. Sales revenue decreased by 22.2% whilst cost of sales increased by 7.6%. This led to a gross profit of ZAR 4.8 billion at a gross profit margin of 15.7%. Our consistent focus on growing production down the industry cost curve is being expressed in our unit cost inflation to the benefit of our results, particularly during this period of depressed metal prices. Movements in the individual elements making up cost of sales include a 7.7% increase in square meters mined together with an average wage increase of approximately 8%, which led to mining costs increasing by 14.8%. Concentrate cost increased by 10.2% due to a 5.8% increase in tonnes milled together with an increase in the cost of consumables. An 8.5% increase in tonnes smelted together with a rise in the electricity tariff led to a 14.4% increase in smelter and base metal removal plant costs. Royalty charges decreased by 63.9%, essentially on the back of lower profitability. The total cost of purchase concentrates and recycling material decreased by 12.1% to ZAR 3.5 billion despite purchased metal volumes increasing about 13%. Refining costs increased by 16.7% to ZAR 432.8 million with refined volumes on a 6E basis, increasing by 5.3% (sic) [ 5.1% ]. All refining costs are denominated in either euros or British pounds, which negatively impacted the refining costs charged. And lastly, the change in metal inventory related to the increase in the quantum of the metal ounces capitalized to the balance sheet. Moving on to the income statement. The group generated profit before tax of ZAR 3.2 billion and accounted for a tax charge of ZAR 1.4 billion, of which ZAR 1.3 billion was paid in cash. Significant items impacting our income statement include the loss on sale of our holding in Impala shares that resulted from the disposal of our RBPlat investment. We limited this loss to ZAR 800 million through the timeliest of realization of the cash value of this noncore asset during August last year. We sold our entire holding of 13 million Impala shares at a volume-weighted average price of ZAR 103.95. Investment income of almost ZAR 1 billion was generated from significant positive cash balances held throughout the year. Moving on to the working capital management of the group. By the end of June, inventory had increased to just over 475,000 ounces with a carrying value of ZAR 8.7 billion, and after applying the basket price and exchange rate at the end of June, a sales value of around ZAR 14.5 billion, a significant asset on our balance sheet. More than half of noncurrent inventory relates to furnace slag that we are now processing through the newly commissioned slag plant. As I mentioned, we expect to work through the current slag stockpile over the course of the coming 4 years. Our smelters by their very nature, carry significant volumes of lockup and the rebuild of furnace to after a 6-year campaign life will release a portion of this. Booysendal stockpiles have grown to almost 460,000 tonnes, and we will work through these following the completion of the expansion of the South tailings dam. Production of UG2 at Zondereinde is currently exceeding the mill capacity. And at year-end, we had a stockpile of just over 85,000 tonnes, which has now grown to 120,000 tonnes. We will process this overspill through the Eland concentrator circuit during the course of the coming year. Looking at the group's cash flow. Over the year, our cash balance increased by ZAR 2.1 billion. The items impacting our cash balance include cash generated from our operating activities amounting to ZAR 3.5 billion, which included a buildup of working capital relating to inventory as well as a decrease in our payable balance mainly relating to payments to our employees in terms of the previous 5 years profit share schemes across the group. Investing activities included ZAR 4.7 billion spent on CapEx, mainly in the execution of the group's growth strategy and ZAR 12.1 billion received in terms of the Implats mandatory offer bolstering our balance sheet and liquidity position, providing flexibility and optionality during these challenging times. And financing activities included dividend payments as well as we settled DMTNs and paid interest relating to our DMTN program. These movements culminated in a cash balance at year-end of ZAR 7.5 billion. As mentioned, we settled DMTNs to the value of ZAR 4.3 billion during the second half and have reduced our net debt to ZAR 3.1 billion, with cash at ZAR 7.5 billion and EBITDA of ZAR 6.3 billion for the year. Our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 0.5. On top of this, we have undrawn banking facilities of ZAR 12.3 billion available to the group, providing us with a very strong liquidity position during this critical time. Ultimately, the most important consideration for any company is the appropriate allocation of capital. The long-term success of the business depends on achieving an optimal balance between growth, sustaining operations and returning value to the providers of capital. Management carefully considers the appropriate allocation of capital in these areas in order to achieve the group's strategic objective. We applied ZAR 4.6 billion to grow and sustain our operations during the year, in line with our trimmed capital schedule. We also returned value through the declaration and payment of a maiden dividend for F2023, an interim dividend for the current year and the Board has resolved to declare a final dividend of ZAR 0.70 per share. A raft of global geopolitical issues have the potential for causing further disruptions to the PGM market. And so we continue to monitor the market, and we'll amend our capital program and capital allocation decisions when and where prudent, taking into account the changing landscape. I will now hand you back to Paul to take you through the operational guidance for the current year.

Thank you, Alet. In the foreground of this picture, you can see we're doing a lot of processing today, all the photographs are processing. In the foreground, you can see the recently commissioned PGM Scavenger plants at Zondereinde. This adds another 1% to our sector-leading UG2 recoveries, which has now reached 89%. Also, in the rear of the photograph, you can see a new tower that will soon house an expansion to our chrome recovery circuit, scheduled for completion in the second half of the financial year, and this will further improve chrome concentrate yields at the capital cost of approximately ZAR 37 million. Zondereinde is expected to produce 450,000 tonnes of chrome concentrate in financial year '25. In line with our growth profile, our current year guidance is as follows: PGM production from own operations is expected to be between 880,000 and 910,000 4E ounces. Group unit cost to be between ZAR 25,500 and ZAR 26,500 on a 4E ounce basis. Sales could exceed 1 million ounces for the first time with a very conservative 40-60 split between the 2 halves. We also expect chrome sales to improve to around 1.4 million tonnes for the group. Our forecast CapEx for the year is ZAR 4.3 billion, allowing for both Eland and the 3 shaft mine development. We present this guidance as always is our considered view as a management team and as a Board. And we wish to highlight once again that we are all currently operating in a heightened business risk environment on a number of fronts. The average basket price that we received for all our metals stabilized over the course of the past year and appears to have found a floor at around ZAR 32,000 per 4E ounce. This will continue to put pressure on the sector and without price relief, will herald significant consequences for the world's PGM industry. This is a very challenging price environment for miners, recyclers and refiners alike. The current basket price, of course, is below incentive price required to build new mines. And this will exacerbate the natural depletion of South Africa's aging shafts. Just like any mineral resource, we cannot mine the same ground forever. The damage has been done now, and depletion is inevitable. However, we believe the market will continue to require primary mined metal and future prices will need to incentivize the operating costs of long-life shafts. Otherwise, supply will fall at a more alarming rate. It is our considered opinion that the PGMs metals market underestimates the impact of the last 15 years of underinvestment. The ability of mines to produce into the future has been compromised. For palladium, we expect flat to waning supply over the medium term, with the Russia dominating primary production. Severe economic pressure is evident for all palladium-dominant primary producers. The current mismatch in price to cost of production is not sustainable. And one of these 2 will have to respond within a very short period of time from here. Geopolitical considerations also play a role here, creating a very high degree of uncertainty. Rhodium will follow the depletion profile of the South African UG2 mines potentially leading to a significant undersupply of this critical metal, particularly important for the control of nitrous oxides. This market will return to deficit once the industrial de-stocking cycle is complete and the consequence of underinvestment reveals itself. We've now witnessed over 18 months of low PGM pricing. Northam's strategy of growing production down the sector cost curve has allowed our mainstay operations to remain cash flow positive after stay in business CapEx whilst production growth at Eland is leading to margin improvement. This is a CY '24 graph. As a management team, we have traveled extensively during the course of this year, interacting with producers and customers across the value chain. We remain acutely aware of how sensitive we are to a change in the market condition. And we will retain optionality within our capital programs accordingly and respond appropriately as the market evolves. As we've mentioned previously, not all ore bodies are created equal, and it's particularly relevant at this time. Looking ahead, we would suggest that South African UG2, particularly that from the western and southeastern portions of the Bushveld with higher loadings of platinum, iridium, ruthenium, rhodium and chrome is strategically well positioned for a future-facing market. At Northam, fortunately, we have a UG2-dominant resource base, which is well capitalized, located in the prime areas of the Bushveld for both metal basket and for yield. This places Northam in a very competitive and strategically strong position. At the end of the day, it's all about good teams mining good ore bodies. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the formal part of the presentation for today. I hope, as always, you found it informative, and we can now move to the Q&A, starting in the room, perhaps, followed by the phone lines, and then Damian will help us with the webcast.

If I could ask that you introduce yourself when and as you receive the microphone and let us know which organization you represent before you ask the question. I've seen Arnold first, then Chris, then Leroy. Let start with the 3 gentlemen.

It's Chris Nicholson from RMB Morgan Stanley. Well done on the year that's passed. I mean, clearly, the volume performance and unit cost performance is very strong. Unfortunately, from where we sit from the forward-looking market perspective, I think what maybe the share price has responded today has been your forward cost guidance. So just looking in particular through the different mines, it looks like you're guiding Zondereinde costs up 9% to 13% year-on-year -- if I look year-on-year. Could you -- and then obviously, from a group 7% to 11%, that seems quite high. So maybe if you could just unpack what the drivers of that are, specifically in reference to some of your peers? I mean they're clearly now low single-digits into this year.

Chris, if I can take one question at a time. I know you might have more than one. I'll start with that answer. First of all, at Northam, as you know, we have a very strong intent to expense rather than put any cost on the balance sheet. And secondly, we do not do cost offset with byproduct revenue. So that's a very important principle that is always worth remembering. Zondereinde should come in at the 8% to 9% unit cost increase. And the reason that's slightly higher than the other 2 mines is because it carries the impact of power. The older smelters and the BMR are sitting Zondereinde, and the other mines do not carry that. The cost of power increase, Alet will cover that in her response, but it's certainly well north of double-digit increases, and we do forecast that we will again experience very high tariff increases from Eskom. On the workforce side, our increases for the coming year at the high levels is at 5% to 8% from high to low level across the employee base. Alet, would you like to comment?

Yes, I can maybe just add. In terms of our guidance, we've been quite conservative. If I look at the various inflationary sort of elements. Paul has mentioned, our labor force is around 40% of the cost. That increases by average around 8%. We also look at consumables, steel, chemicals, et cetera. We see that at around 7%. And then just for the past year, our electricity tariff has been in excess of 18%, and we foresee those costs increasing considerably over the next coming years. So hence, a conservative forecast rather than being too bullish.

It's also worth remembering these cost inputs are common across the industry.

Arnold Van Graan from Nedbank. 2 questions from my side. The first one is on Eland. If you look at Eland, is it still on track to be the mine you envisaged when you first bought it? And then just a quick one on that is what's your steady-state cost target for Eland in today's terms?

So Eland is tracking quite well. It made its targets this year. And as long as Eland continues to do that, it will be a good mine and will compete well because of this. This is the Eland basket. Remember, it's not just the cost equation. We must also look at the profitability, allowing for the full basket that we enjoy there. It's a very, very strong orebody with high chrome, high platinum you heard me mention. So it's tracked well this year. It still has some way to go. We're only 1/3 up the mining ramp-up. And of course, we've got most of the fixed cost in place. So as mining ramps up, you will get the operational leverage. Its terminal unit cost performance will be below Zondereinde. Why is that the case? The reason mainly is because it's only, on average, now 200 meters below surface, whereas the deepest portions of Zondereinde are 10x that at 2.3 kilometers. So the need for refrigeration, ventilation and so on is not there. We also do not backfill at Eland. The orebody itself is very, very similar to Zondereinde UG2 in its physical characteristics. There's absolutely no reason why Eland will not overtake, if I can put it that way, not by volume, but by cost Zondereinde effort.

Okay, Paul. That's a nice way to put it. Second question is maybe to you or Alet, where you look at your lower-for-longer scenario. Can you give us a sense of approach to that? So you've put some capacity onto the balance sheet. So I'm assuming that, that would almost be your first port of call is ramp-up the gearing somewhat to 1x. And then once you get there, again, this is assumption, then where do you start to trim CapEx? And I always ask this question. But just give us a sense of where do you stop and where do you continue spending that CapEx?

In this case, we'll Alet go first. I'll give an overarching view.

So in terms of our growth strategy, we have spent a lot of money on, especially our Booysendal, which is the lowest cost in -- mine in the industry, which helps us with our cash generation as a group. So if we look at the cash flow forecast for the next sort of 12 months, we do believe that we'll have sufficient cash available. Where the market will move down by another 10%, that is where we'll need to start looking at utilizing some of our funding and then also looking at CapEx in terms of our expansionary CapEx. And I think maybe Paul can touch on that. But in the first instance, we'll most likely look at Eland.

Yes, I would agree. That was -- would have been my comment as well. If we were pushed further and Alet mentions the 10% further reduction in the rand basket price, we will protect Zondereinde by harvesting Eland in a nutshell. Booysendal will be okay at that level.

Okay. That's also very clear. And then that target is still 1x net debt to EBITDA to sort of top level that you'll go to?

It's not a target.

It is just a benchmark.

It's just a guideline.

Yes, guideline.

Obviously, in circumstances like this across the industry, you're going to see a reduction in EBITDA, not necessarily at Northam, but one must just bear that in mind, that it's very dynamic, if I can put it that way.

And maybe if I can just add is in terms of our half year with our lopsided sales, it could go over that target. But it's only for the half year because of lopsided sales.

It's also a fair point. Yes. we've indicated there conservatively, and I stress that word, 40-60 on the sales, 6 months, 1 year. I think we can have a look at that a bit later in the year, we'll give you a bit better guidance as we move forward. The furnace is only just being commissioned. So remember, we've been smelting at 60% of smelting rate for May, June, July, and most of August. So you can imagine that 60% of cash flow.

I was wondering if you could give us some insights on the rhodium market. I know your team has spent a fair bit of time in China over the last sort of 1.5 years to try and understand that the de-stocking that's happening there, if you've got any sense of how far that is and when you expect that to conclude. And then maybe just a bit more generally on the PGMs. Are you seeing any change in behavior from your customers that would suggest that the destocking cycle is close to an end? And then on Booysendal, the North UG2, it's quite pleasing to see that recovery in the head grade but it's still a fair bit below where you were at around sort of 2.8 grams per tonne in 2021, I think it was. Do you expect it to continue improving to those levels? And if so, how long do you expect that to take?

Yes. On the easier question, which is the grade issue, to be honest, Leroy, what is important is content per square meter. The grade and the tonnage are linked against with the wider you mine the lower the grade, the bigger the tonnage, the same content. So Booysendal is a fairly homogeneous orebody on that basis, except for, on average, 8% of split reef, and grade will vary on that percentage of split reefs that we are mining. We will endeavor to keep it to the same 8%, but of course, mining is not as perfect as that, so you can expect variation. But I don't expect material change in their grade at Booysendal would be my advice. Look at the ounces that we are guiding. That's the key. It's the content per square meter. Grade and tonnage are interrelated inversely. Okay. The second question, which is more difficult, of course, is the market. We did point out, we've done quite a lot of interaction this year. We continue to do that. On the rhodium side, we've spoken once again to the fiber glass producers in China directly. We again visited in North China, the big producers there. They are opaque in terms of their intent and one wouldn't necessarily expect them to tell you what their commercial decisions are going to be. But we do get the feeling that they also see value in rhodium at this price level. From a separate interaction, we do feel that the rhodium market as a whole is somewhat normalizing in terms of the flow, the buying and selling activity that we're seeing. So we'd like to believe, if I can say it that way, that the rhodium market is becoming more normal. In other words, rather than suffering from big, chunky de-stocking [ paths ] to market. I think that's a fair comment. We also have picked up, as you yourselves have picked up a lower loading in -- on Chinese brands in China for both palladium and rhodium relative to the Western JVs, the typical Volkswagen, Mercedes, BMW loadings. Why is that significant? It's because the Chinese brands -- and I'm talking internal combustion engines now, are gaining market share against the Western JVs. So on a weighted-average basis, loadings are lower in China because of that change in market share. And that wasn't a small change. It's approximately a 20% swing in market share between the Western JVs and the Chinese branding cost. So yes, that's sort of an influence that is also not helping us, if I can put it this way at this stage. And in the general market, some of the forwards are being rolled up now, if I can put it that way. So that's good. That would be for palladium and rhodium. So in other words, the customer base is not as long in the metal anymore in the forward book, so it's coming closer to spot when that happens. I think you know what I'm talking about when I say that. So that's a healthy indication, but we're not there yet, obviously, and we are disinclined to predict the end of the de-stocking cycle at this stage. We think there are a couple of other factors that need to be considered. One is the macro, the serious turnaround in interest rates, and I'm not just really talking about the first cut now. I think we -- the macro needs to properly turn around. We would be looking for that before people would be more inclined to carry stock. Secondly, the politics in the U.S., I think is also of concern in terms of policy. Where will policy land, depending on who wins the election in simple terms. And then further clarity on penetration or otherwise of the battery electric vehicles. There's been quite a lot of negative news there, which is good for us. Let's see how that one plays out. So all in all, I would say we will -- we are preparing and have prepared ourselves for a little bit of a tough time still and not necessarily looking for a turnaround in the short term. It's going to be hard yards. As it has been before in this industry, I'm digressing a little bit away from the question. But if you give me a bit of liberty there, these cycles have -- they're not uncommon in our industry. Some of us has been around the block, some old heads here I can see in the room with white and gray hair. Myself, I've been in the industry since '87. We've seen a number of these hard cycles. It will resolve itself. And please remember that supply -- those supply charts, there is a consequence for every market condition. And the consequence that the industry does not yet realize is the impact this price level is having on the ability to produce and it's not a small change into the future. These assets are already aged, they're underinvested. They haven't been replaced. You can't mine the same ground forever. It will sort itself out. Thanks, Leroy.

Bruce Williamson, Integral Asset Management. Paul, just following up on what you were alluding to now. I mean can you just remind us of what the CapEx estimate was for the Western extension at Zondereinde? And if you had to start today, how much higher would it be?

Yes. That's a good question. I haven't immediately got that answer to hand, Bruce, but...

It's roughly ZAR 5 billion.

Alet says roughly ZAR 5 billion. We can get the exact precise number -- precise number. So let's call it ZAR 5 billion. And the compounding effect of inflation reflects in what we call the escalation run of capital bills. In simple terms, to build a mine today, I think you're looking, I'll say with a small concentrator, not a big concentrator, you're looking north of ZAR 20 billion, and that is prohibitive against the current profitability of the sector. So I do agree with Nico's comment yesterday, actually, which ended up in the newspapers. It's very hard to see new mines being developed in South Africa under this price scenario. There's simply no incentive. The last mines you will see is probably Eland and number 3 shaft. And they're well advanced, by the way. I mean, you heard me say, we -- 1/3 of the mining ramp up already. The mine is there. 3 shaft is in equipping. It would be very difficult for even ourselves to approve a mine start from here from a standing start under this price scenario. It's not going to fly. So it's hard to see how the production base gets replaced. And remember, time is the most valuable thing. It's not the cost of it, actually, Bruce. The cost is really, really important. But the point is, it took us relatively, from surface, straightforward mine, Booysendal took 12 years to build. So how is that hole going to be filled in terms of the supply of primary metal, we just can't see it. It's not going to happen. I'll be very, very clear in saying that. It is impossible to see South Africa maintaining anywhere near the current 3.9 million ounces annualized platinum output. It will decline. And those numbers, by the way, those graphs are prepared from the reserve and resource statements of the individual companies. It's not our own assessment. It's available in the R&R reports. Of course, the reserve and resource documents are not so easy to read. Damian can help with that. But it's clear to us in the documentation that the industry is not sustainable at current levels. I think we can go to the lines, perhaps, Neil, if you have anything there. Thank you.

We have a question from Adrian Hammond of SBG.

Paul and Alet, 2 questions. Firstly, Paul, all your peers have embarked on Section 189 retrenchment programs that have helped curb costs, you have not. What separates you from them? Is it because your assets are already rightsized? Or if not, are there cost-cutting opportunities that you may embark on, should you need to? Secondly, for Alet, just want to get a sense of the stockpiles or inventories that have accumulated to 475,000 ounces. I get the sense that you're going to start unwinding some of that. How much should we expect over this year and then following years? And what would be after-tax cash value of that unlock be for this year? I did see you alluded to a ZAR 900 million noncurrent inventory value. Is that value after tax, something we can work with? If you could just expand on that, please.

Thanks, Adrian. Whilst Alet is doing the calculations on the tax there, I'll tackle the first one. We're not doing 189 processes because we don't need to do chunky redundancy measures. We have a natural attrition of about 4%. And we're able to work within a natural attrition process to bring people in and out of the organization as and when it is required. At Eland, we're still employing and a little bit still with Willie, fine-tuning at Booysendal. But in essence, I would say, is Zondereinde and Booysendal pretty stable workforces from here. Eland's still growing. You heard me say we currently got 25, 26 teams on the face. We'll grow to 64, 65 over the course of the next few years. Obviously, we need employees to fill those team vacancies. So that's why we're not needing to embark on 189. Alet, you ready with that?

Yes. Adrian, thanks for the question. If you look at our inventory at year end just in excess of 475,000 ounces. You can look at excess of around 100,000 ounces, which we will unwind over the next sort of 3 years. So releasing, let's say, roughly just over 30,000 ounces for the coming year. And after tax, that should add ZAR 500 million to our cash balance.

Depending on metal, [ rand ] and basket price.

Correct, yes.

Neil, back to you. Are there any further questions? We'll go into the webcast, Damian, if there's anything you can see there.

So there's just 3 questions at the moment, Paul. René Hochreiter from [ Sieberana ]. Congratulations on your cost and control. And then he asks if you could share your thoughts on the PGM demand from China and supply from Russia.

Yes. Very good. René, thanks for the comment. We'll pass that back to the operating teams. On China, you heard in my comments about the difference between Chinese OEMs' internal combustion engine loadings versus Western JVs loadings. The difference there is not a small one. So when the Chinese OEMs gain market share, then the overall demand from China is impacted. And we can -- by our calculation, we can see that clearly, and it affects platinum and rhodium -- palladium and rhodium, excuse me. That's a gasoline market, of course. On the industrial side in China, it's very, very strong platinum demand. There have been, so far, unaccounted movements of platinum into China and ruthenium and some other metals that we not -- we cannot fully explain. But one thing I can say, there's very, very strong platinum demand into China and ruthenium. The last bit of the question, Damian, was Russia...

Supply from Russia.

Supply from Russia, we have a professional relationship with Russia, with Norilsk. We don't have any commercial arrangements there, but we do know them very well and have visited Norilsk very recently. The -- that orebody is very, very unusual. It's extremely high grade. And I've got no doubt in saying I'd be very, very surprised if the Russians cannot produce their guidance and more, even under the sanctions that we've seen so far. Whether they can sell all the metal or not is a very, very hard question to answer. At the moment, Norilsk is not sanctioned in particular, by the U.S. So palladium is moving to North America from Russia and also moving, still to my knowledge, to Japan. And the balance is going into China. So there's been realignment of the Russian flow. But my opinion is the Russians will produce in all likelihood, in one way or another, sell the palladium even if it's somewhat of a single-digit discount to encourage that new trade route in particular via China. So yes, unless there is a political change with respect to sanctions, the Russian material will continue to flow.

Next question from Jandré Pieterse from Visio Fund Management. He just asks if you're able to indicate what level of production you think Eland's costs reach parity with Zondereinde's?

So in terms of mining, it is essentially a fixed-cost business. So if you don't have those volumes covering those fixed costs, you'll be making losses, and that's where we are with the Eland at the moment. So based on current sort of pricing, we believe that as soon as Eland reaches in excess of 100,000 ounces, it will start be breaking even.

Yes, that's the right number from my point of view, 100,000 ounces, even in this market, is breakeven for Eland. And you've seen the guidance for next year, we won't be far off that.

Last question is from Hetal Bhatia of Wood Mackenzie. Just asking if you're able to share the sales destination for your chrome product between domestic and export?

Yes. I can do that. Logistically, it goes through Maputo. We've signed a back-to-back long-term arrangement commercially with the Port of Maputo. So that helps us with the logistics out of South Africa. That then goes to China by boat, inland to China to Inner Mongolia. And there are large ferrochrome producers inside Inner Mongolia, where the low-cost electricity is available. And those customers are right there. So that chrome actually travels a hell of a long way to get to its final destination. But as you can see, it remains profitable. As a rhetorical question, just to digress, I think for color for the audience as well, I would ask the question from everything you know about the stainless steel market, that you may know about the stainless steel market, would you rather have a chrome-based orebody or a nickel sulfide-based orebody? Given the Indonesian propensity to produce nickel, I would suggest a chrome-based orebody from a strategic point of view might look a little bit better into the future rather than nickel. And we're very pleased that we can maximize and extract the chrome that we do. And as Alet pointed out, we have a full mine-to-market ownership there. So we enjoy the full 100% benefit of that production stream, which is, in fact, a differentiator for Northam. And as you've heard from the guidance, we will continue to enhance that production. And I'll say once again, don't underestimate Eland. I've got one last slide, which actually refers to Eland. Just to wind it up, Damian, if you don't mind, for the sake of time. This is [ Harod Potheuter ]. He's a shift supervisor at Eland. He is standing in a strike drive. And you will see the UG2 exposed behind him. That's a 1.6-meter wide orebody. It contains approximately 1 ounce of PGM per square meter mined and 2 tonnes of chrome per square meter mined. It's something worth considering. Well, if I could ask you all to join us for a cup of tea and a sandwich in the foyer. Thank you very much, everyone.