Northam Platinum Holdings Limited (NPH) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us at the Northam results presentation for the year ended June 2025. Welcome to our Chairman, Mcebisi Jonas; and Board members, Temba, Emily, Geralda, Hester, Yoza and Andre, some of whom are on the line. Welcome to all of you on the lines, and a special welcome, in particular, to those who've managed to join us in person. It's always good to have you in the room. The presentation, together with our reporting suite, are all available on the website this morning. Thank you once again to the team, particularly Alet, Damian and [ Sai ], who have prepared this comprehensive set of documents in a -- it's a remarkable effort in a very, very short period of time. As always, we'd like to describe the pictures on the slide. That one, you may not recognize easily, but that's platinum in sponge form, ready for industrial use. It's much easier to dissolve in this form as opposed to ingot. Platinum price appreciation over the last few months has broad welcome relief to the sector, and we believe supply and demand fundamentals have driven this market. Palladium, rhodium and ruthenium have followed suit, and Northam's basket, with its high loadings, in particular of platinum, rhodium and ruthenium, is well positioned to benefit. Here is the usual disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements that we may make today. Please read it when you have a little bit of time. It is an important document. I will review some of the key features of last year, in which we have surpassed 1 million ounces for the first time, and our operations once again performed well. I remember, more than a few raised eyebrows 10 years ago when we first put forward our 1 million aspirational target, and it's very rewarding to see that plan becoming a reality. We've also made further progress in respect of our project pipeline, including the development of Eland mine, the 3 shaft project at Zondereinde and the upgrades to our metallurgical facilities. And this has all been done against a very tight checkbook. Alet will take us through the financials, and I finally will provide guidance for 2026 and discuss how we see the metals markets developing from here. This picture is the surface infrastructure for Zondereinde 3 shaft, which is almost complete, Damian's swimming pool and diving board. The logistical benefits that 3 shaft brings will allow us to realize value from Zondereinde's exceptional ore body for many, many years into the future. A strong operational performance allowed us once again to post record production and record sales volumes. This despite the rebuild of #2 furnace in the first half of the year. With the tick up in metal prices during June, this led to a full year revenue of ZAR 32.9 billion Although market signal is positive, and is starting to reflect in prices for all of the metals in our basket, we will maintain our internal focus and continue to place high emphasis on safe production, efficient mining at the right cost and cash conversion remains a particular focus area for the metallurgists. Our view on the long-term fundamentals for the PGM market remains unchanged, and we are committed to investing the necessary elective capital in order to make the final push to deliver both 3 shaft and Eland mine. The Board has declared a final dividend of ZAR 2 per share, bringing the total dividend for the year to ZAR 2.15, and demonstrating confidence in our company. A significant portion of inventory now sits in furnace lag at our metallurgical complex. And all of our inventory is unencumbered. This is a picture of the slag plant that was commissioned in March last year, and it has now reached nameplate throughput of 60 tonnes per hour, and we will work through the 800,000 tonnes of slag over the coming 4 years. You can see the slag in the background. If you do that division, 60 divided by 800, you'll get to a much quicker number. But remember, we must still treat current arisings as well. The slag stockpile sits behind the plant, as you can see. You can also see we are beginning to make some inroads there. In the rear of the shot is the 80-megawatt solar facility under construction, and I'll talk to that a little later. Moving on to the mining operations. And firstly, safety. Of course, this remains a key focus area for the group, and we're pleased to report an overall improved performance measured by the lost time injury frequency rate at all 3 mines. Booysendal has surpassed 11 million fatality-free shifts and remains fatality-free since inception, which is a wonderful achievement. Despite this, the year was marked by the tragic passing of 3 of our colleagues in separate incidents. During the first half, Mr. Aubrey Sithole; Mr. Koshi Makhobo at Eland mine and in March, Mr Domingo Novele was injured in a tramming accident at Zondereinde. The Board extends condolences to the families and friends of our colleagues, and we are acutely aware of the need to continue our efforts in the pursuit of 0 fatalities. The Board health and safety and environmental committee provides a wealth of experience and strong guidance in support of the management team. And together, we are driving both technical and behavioral improvements in the underground workplace. Visible leadership is very important in this regard. Looking at some of the operational metrics and firstly, at the group level, improvements in UG2 stoping at all operations led to a 6.2% increase in centares mined. For those who may not know what the centare is, it's a square meter. However, we did suspend treatment of surface sources at Eland during the year, and this led to mill tonnages remaining flat. Higher fee grades led to mine metal production growing by 0.7%, and total metals sold increased by 5.9%, exceeding 1 million ounces for the first time. The impact of the rebuild of #2 furnace on first half sales effectively normalized by year-end. Despite generally higher mining inflation, particularly related to bulk utilities and a slower ramp-up at Eland, we have managed to limit the increase in unit costs to 4E ounce to 8.1%, which is, in fact, a creditable performance given the very hefty over 15% increase that we've experienced from Eskom. Our cash margin decreased to 21%, reflecting primarily the lower average metal prices received. Chrome production improved once again as higher UG2 tonnes were treated as well as improving chrome yields at all operations. If we can now move on and discuss the mines individually, and first, Zondereinde. Bedding down Merensky mining continues on the Western extension. Whilst UG2 mining has largely been moved to the East benefited from higher yields. Increased mill tonnage led to improved production of 330,000 4E ounces, and together with good cost control, limited the increase in unit cash costs to 7.8%. Again, a creditable performance given the intensity of power consumption at this operation combined with the Eskom increase. Higher UG2 production exceeded milling capacity and led to a stockpile of around 85,000 tonnes upfront of the mill at year-end. A permanent feature from here will be the milling of excess UG2 from Zondereinde at the Eland metallurgical complex. Chrome production increased by 12% and to almost 0.5 million tonnes, a very pleasing performance. Depressed metal prices led to a lower cash margin of 12.3%, and capital investment at Zondereinde was ZAR 2.1 billion and applied to work on #3 shaft, upgrades to the base metal refinery and the recently commissioned furnace slag plant. The completion of #3 shaft next year will lead to productivity gains, particularly from Merensky. Forecast capital for 2026 is ZAR 2.6 billion, predominantly on 3 shaft, and includes for the continued development of #4 shaft. Here is a picture of the barrel looking up, actually up the barrel of Zondereinde's 3 shaft, showing the equipping that has been completed to just over 1,000 meters. You may be able to pick up the light from surface in the center of the shot. In addition, the successful establishment of the intermediate pump chamber is a key milestone. Remaining technical deliverables underground are equipping the final 280 meters of the shaft, reaming the remainder of #3 ventilation shaft, and finalizing the installation of the chairlift system, equipping water and backfill ranges down to 7 level. On surface, we are busy with equipping the refrigeration and backfill plants, completing the construction of the change house and office buildings and commissioning overland water lines. The pilot drilling of #4 shaft has recently been completed, and reaming will begin this year. Moving on to Booysendal, where we will continue to exceed steady-state volumes with all operating sections of the mine contributed. In line with expectations, mill tonnage grew by 2.7%, whilst maintaining feed grades at 2.6 grams per tonne as we continue to manage split reef and despite the lower grade Merensky tonnage. The ramp-up of the North Merensky module is complete and the South Merensky model remains on hold for now. The accumulation of run-of-mine ore continues prior to the mill and closed at 460,000 tonnes. Work continues on expanding plant capacity. And having received all permissions to go ahead, we have commenced now with the construction of the South Tailings dam expansion. This is the remaining bottleneck for an increase in the milling rate, and an 18-month construction program will now follow. Overall, PGM production at Booysendal improved to 512,000 ounces and cost management limited the increase in unit costs to a very creditable 5.6%. Clearly, illustrating that Booysendal's mechanized mining method is less exposed to the Eskom tariff. Chrome production dropped marginally in line with higher Merensky contributions, and Booysendal posted an operating profit of ZAR 3.9 billion at a cash margin of 38%, despite depressed metal prices throughout the bulk of the year, again, quite remarkable. Capital expenditure was ZAR 1.4 billion, mostly sustaining and in line with our expected ongoing stay in business requirements. Our forecast for 2026 is ZAR 1.7 billion, mainly on machine replacement, but also allowing for the construction of the South Tailings dam. At Eland, the mining ramp-up continues, but growth in metal production was limited due to a safety focus following the 2 fatal accidents in the first half of the year and the suspension of the treatment of surface sources given the lower metal prices. Crew buildup continued, and we now have 44 production teams on the face or in the training center. And this will eventually grow to 64 teams at steady state. Underground tonnage increased and concentrated recoveries continue to improve as run-of-mine hit the mill. We produced 72,000 ounces in concentrate together with a further 48,000 ounces from third parties. Unit cash cost increased to 40,500 per 4E ounce, driven by the crew buildup and an overall increase in complement. Eland is becoming a significant chrome producer, and chrome yields reached 20% at year-end, and we forecast over 300,000 tonnes from this operation in FY '26, once again underlying the quality of this ore body. A ventilation changeover was completed in June, and this now allows multi-blast conditions, which will enable us to accelerate decline development and derisk the remainder of the ramp-up schedule. We await permission for multi blasting from the DMPR. Since the mine buildup program was initiated, Eland has shown steady progress, building up minable reserves and stoping crews. It is important to distinguish the underground performance from surface sources and third-party treatment, as we've illustrated in this slide. Metallurgical recoveries have improved from 60% in 2021 when we began, to 80% currently. There is still much to be done, but Eland will continue to grow, reaching its full potential in 2029, and delivering a premium metal basket repeat with significant loadings of platinum, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium and chrome into a market that is likely to lead it -- need it sooner rather than later. Moving on to our renewable program. Construction of the 80-megawatt solar facility at Zondereinde is in progress as can be seen on this slide. Posts, trackers and solar panels are being placed and commissioning will be completed early next year. Progress has also been made on 2 other committed -- fully committed projects, the 140-megawatt Karreebosch Wind Farm, just south of Sutherland, currently under construction as well as the over the grid solar from which we will draw a further 80 megawatts. This is also about to break ground. Both of these additional projects will be operational in 2027. By then 900,000 megawatt hours of the energy used at our operations will be renewable. And we will have reduced the group's carbon intensity by 60% from the 2019 baseline. In today's terms, this will save around ZAR 750 million of our annual electricity bill, and we're actively pursuing further initiatives to reduce our environmental impact and assist with cost control. We do have the good fortune to own large tracks of land in and around the mining operations, enabling a modular expansion of the behind the meter PV units. This picture shows the excavation for a wind turbine at Karreebosch. The excavation is 23 meters in diameter for scale. And each wind turbine will have a capacity of 5.6 megawatts, and there will be 25 in total. In the background, you can see the access roads to the other 24 stations, very impressive. I'll now hand you over to Alet to take you through the financials.

Thank you, Paul. Good morning, everybody. You may recall that I mentioned during our interim results presentation, an initiative by the senior employees aimed at providing stationery and other school supplies to more than 1,300 people from a number of schools in and around the Booysendal area. We ended up with some funds remaining. And together with additional donations, we were able to construct the playground at the Thaba Chweu school in Mashishing. We also purchased soccer balls for every grade R and 1 pupil, and I think you might agree from this photo that these gifts were very well received. Looking at the key financial features for the year under review. In spite of weak average rand metal prices over the year, our growth in metal production, sales volumes led to sales revenue of ZAR 32.9 billion and an operating profit of ZAR 3.6 billion, with EBITDA of ZAR 4.9 billion, while we continue to invest in organic growth. Basic earnings per share and headline earnings per share for the year amounted to ZAR 3.81 and ZAR 3.80, respectively. Looking now at revenue. Revenue for the year was ZAR 32.9 billion. This is a ZAR 2.1 billion or a 6.9% increase on the previous year, which was essentially the result of an increase in sales volumes, while the improvement in the dollar basket price was negated by a 2.9% strengthening of the rand against the U.S. dollar. Recent price appreciation is welcomed and market signaling appears positive, but prevailing global uncertainty requires us to remain cautious in our outlook. The benefit of the full mine-to-market value chain for chrome is clear as is that of the so-called minor metals, iridium and ruthenium. These together contributed 22% or ZAR 7.3 billion to our revenue. Looking now at cost of sales. Sales revenue increased by 6.9%, while cost of sales increased by 13%. This led to gross profit of ZAR 3.6 billion at a gross profit margin percentage of 10.9%, reflecting flat pricing and mining cost inflation. Movements in the individual elements making up cost of sales include a 6.2% increase in square meters mined together with an average wage increase of approximately 6.5%, led to mining cost increasing by 8.9%. Concentrating cost increased by 11.9% due to increases in power and consumable costs as well as additional costs relating to the enlarged slag plant. Smelter and base metal removal plant cost increased by 11.9%, owing to the increase in the electricity tariff and higher volumes treated. The increase on the share-based payment expense relates primarily to the positive movement in the Northam Holding share price. And lastly, the change in metal inventory relates to the increase in the quantum of the metal ounces capitalized to the balance sheet. Moving on to the income statement. The group generated profit before tax of ZAR 2.5 billion and accounted for a tax charge of ZAR 990 million with the bulk paid in cash. Northam contributes significantly to the South African economy as a whole. This is done through direct taxes paid to the fiscus, employment opportunities created as well as various community upliftment initiatives, focusing on health care, education and infrastructure development. To demonstrate the scale of our contribution, Northam has, for the first time this year, published a tax transparency and economic contribution report, which is available on our website. Moving on to working capital management. By the end of June, inventory had increased to just over 495,000 ounces with a carrying value of ZAR 9 billion. And after applying the basket price and exchange rate at the end of June, a sales value of around ZAR 16.5 billion, a significant asset on our balance sheet. And as Paul mentioned, entirely unencumbered. Bulk sampling of the slag dump during the year led to an upward reassessment of the quantum of noncurrent inventory. With the slag plant now operating at nameplate, processing of a significant portion of noncurrent inventory is progressing and is expected to be concluded over the course over the coming 4 years. Looking at the group's cash flow. Over the year, our cash balance decreased by ZAR 543 million. Items impacting our cash balance include cash generated from our operating activities amounting to ZAR 4.7 billion as well as investing activities, which included ZAR 5 billion spent on CapEx, mainly in the execution of the group's growth strategy, building a sustainable business well into the future. Financing activities, including settling of DMTNs to the value of ZAR 4.2 billion and paying interest, mainly relating to the DMTN program of ZAR 1.3 billion and subsequently issuing new notes to the value of ZAR 5.7 billion. This placement provides Northam with sufficient flexibility and liquidity to pursue an accelerated capital program, enabling the execution of our strategy to safely, efficiently and sustainably increase PGM production against a depleting global primary supply. The strong performance by our operations, together with our favorable position on the sector cost curve, ensure Northam's sustainable future, enhancing our investment case. These movements culminated in the cash balance at year end of ZAR 6.9 billion. Furthermore, and subsequent to year-end, we received a one-off settlement of $66 million from Heraeus relating to redetermination of historical refining outcomes. At year-end, net debt amounted to ZAR 5.1 billion. With EBITDA of ZAR 4.9 billion for the year, our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio amounted to 1.04, approximating our acceptable level. On top of this, we have undrawn banking facilities of ZAR 12.3 billion available to the group, providing us with a very strong liquidity position. We are a mining company. And as such, our capital allocation decisions relate to longer-term sustainability. Given the strength of our balance sheet and current liquidity position, together with how far we have come in the execution of the growth strategy, we believe that it is incumbent upon us to now push ahead to conclusion. In light of this, we have invested ZAR 4.9 billion in growth this year and plan to invest a further ZAR 5.2 billion during F 2026. These investments will ensure the viability of our business for the next 30-plus years. The fourth leg of our strategy has always been the return of value to shareholders. To this end, the Board has declared a final dividend of ZAR 2 per share, taking dividends for the year to ZAR 2.15, representing almost 60% of headline earnings. This is significantly higher than our minimum dividend payout policy and signals our confidence in our business. I will now hand you back to Paul to take us through the operational guidance.

Thank you, Alet. Chrome has become a significant source of revenue for Northam, as we said earlier, and this year, generated ZAR 3.7 billion or 11% of sales. And we will continue to grow production as we increase UG2 processing and progressively introduce innovative enhancements to the chrome recovery circuits at each of the 4 UG2 milling circuits. Zondereinde produced over 0.5 million tonnes and some of this, you can see on the pad ready for shipment, highest yield in the industry. In line with our growth profile, our current year guidance is as follows: PGM production from own operations is expected to be between 910,000 and 930,000 4E ounces. Group unit cost to be between ZAR 27,500 and ZAR 28,500 on a 4E basis. Sales will once again exceed 1 million ounces, and we expect chrome sales of 1.6 million tonnes. Our forecast capital for the year is ZAR 5.2 billion as we push forward with completion at Eland and the 3 shaft project, and this includes for the reaming of #4 shaft as well as our expanded renewable program. We present this guidance, as always, as our considered view and wish to highlight once again that despite recent and most welcome price appreciation, we remain in a heightened business risk environment on a number of external fronts. If we look at price and moving to price historical and spot, having remained at about ZAR 32,000 per 4E ounce for the first 11 months of the financial year, the average basket price received began to recover in June. And the spot price has subsequently climbed to over ZAR 45,000 per 4E ounce. Physical markets started to tighten in early 2025, and flows of metal from European vaults to the U.S. led to a sharp response in the paper lending market. This pushed metal lease rates to near record highs, which ultimately elicited a metal price response in the spot market as we have seen. Platinum led, followed by the remainder of the PGMs. Physical markets remain tight, and lease rates remain high for platinum and rhodium. Even palladium this morning is at 4%. This suggests that metal prices may find support here. These higher prices provide welcome relief for PGM mines, recyclers and refiners alike. But once again, there is a general global uncertainty, and it's early days, and we remain cautiously optimistic. We have, for some time, highlighted the persistent deficit in the platinum market. The recent strength of the platinum price is, therefore, no surprise. Our latest analysis of supply and demand for 2025 remains unchanged, a market in substantial deficit. SA supply is falling and recent price movements are unlikely to change this longer-term trend. The improved PGM prices may induce higher rates of recycling, but this assumes that metal is available in the car park. Demand from the auto, industrial, jewelry and investment sectors remains buoyant. And in our opinion, physical markets should remain tight as a result. As with platinum, rhodium has a growing supply deficit. This slide shows a snapshot of our view for the rhodium market balance for 2025 calendar year, excluding investment activity. On the supply side, SA will continue to dominate but an aging production base and a dearth of new projects is unable to maintain volumes. Rhodium is mainly sourced from the mining of UG2 reef on the western limb of the Bushveld. These mines are the oldest in the sector, and future depletion will impact rhodium production more so than that of platinum and palladium. Recycled rhodium is critical to balance the market, but reduced recycling rates can be expected against lower historical loadings. Evidence suggests that recycling numbers this year will again disappoint. In contrast, we expect demand to remain strong and dominated by auto catalysis. We anticipate NOx legislation to tighten in some regions of the world, which will likely lead to commensurate increases in loadings in particular, in China. Industrial demand will be further buoyed by fiberglass manufacturers potentially moving back to higher rhodium loadings in the future. Ultimately, our estimates suggest the fundamental market deficit of 5% for this year in such a small market of around about 1 million to 1.05 million ounces, that's quite significant. Underinvestment in the PGM sector since the global financial crisis has led to a lack of replacement for South Africa's aging shaft infrastructure. And as with any mineral resource, we cannot mine the same ground forever. The damage has been done now and continued depletion is inevitable. However, we believe the market will continue to require primary mined metal, and future prices must incentivize the operating costs of long-live shafts. Otherwise, supply will fall at a more alarming rate. It remains our considered opinion that the metals market underestimates the impact of the last 15 years of underinvestment. The ability of the mines to produce into the future has clearly been compromised. For palladium, we expect flat to waning supply over the medium term, with Russia dominating primary production. Recent developments in Russia point to new mines being developed in the medium term, but we believe these additional ounces will merely offset, declining production from falling grades elsewhere. And given the apparent scarcity of capital and skills, whether or not these new mines will be built, remains uncertain. High local interest rates and higher inflation are becoming inhibitive for future Russian production. And production in the North American region is clearly under pressure at current palladium prices. Rhodium will follow the depletion profile of the South African UG2 mines, potentially leading to a significant tightness in supply of this critical metal. The market will remain in deficit, with the industrial destocking cycle now largely complete and the consequence of underinvestment becoming evident. Market conditions remained tight, reflected in high lease rates for this metal, around 10% this morning. We believe that market fundamentals are driving the recent price appreciation and most -- for most PGMs as well as the ongoing strength of chrome. Waning primary supply of platinum and rhodium allied to robust demand bodes well for these metals. Whilst new and growing requirements for ruthenium, a lesser talked about metal, particularly for data storage and nylon production, are reflecting in stronger pricing. Incidentally, Northam produces more ruthenium than rhodium. It's our third metal by volume. Global demand for stainless steel, together with Chinese ferrochrome industry dynamics are supporting UG2 chrome concentrate pricing. And on this basis, our short-term view is positive for the metals that made up over 80% of our revenue in the past year. If we now hone in on the 6E basket and look at ourselves by volume now, the outlook is good for almost 3/4 of production, and this is a very welcome position for the entire sector, and particularly for Northam. We've made great strides over the past decade, strengthening our resource base, our capital infrastructure, our mining and metallurgical processes and importantly, our people. This slide summarizes our snapshot view of the current status of the key components of our business. If you had a business of this size, that looks like that, I can assure you, you would be very happy. The company is in a very good state of health, with a fantastic well-motivated team, solid performance from our mainstay operational units and the financial backbone of a strong balance sheet and cash position. However, we still have work to do. Working safely is nonnegotiable. And despite ongoing improvements in safety performance across the group, the passing of 3 of our colleagues is unacceptable to us, and we're placing ever more emphasis on this critical area. The quality of the Eland ore body demands the successful ramp-up of this mine. The mining team will deliver on its targets, and we expect further improvements from the metallurgists. Finally, as I've said, the longer-term fundamentals for the market are positive, particularly for our basket. We've come a long way, and we have, in the main, delivered on our targets. To maintain momentum, we've set and wish to share new 5-year targets for the company. Operationally, we do intend to deliver Eland and the 3 shaft project. And in doing so, further improve our relative position in the sector. We will also deliver 1.8 million tonnes of chrome from own production by 2030. We intend to scale up our third-party business to around 200,000 ounces per annum, and we expect to deliver a turnover of more than ZAR 60 billion by 2030. We will also continue our decarbonization program and plan a reduction of over 60% before the end of the decade. In a nutshell, Northam is in a very competitive and strategically strong position. And at the end of the day, it's all about good teams, mining good ore bodies, and Northam has both.

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the formal part of the presentation for today, and I hope you found it informative. We can now move on to the Q&A. Starting in the room, perhaps, followed by the phone lines, and then Damian will help us with the webcast questions. If I could ask that you introduce yourself when you receive the microphone and let us know which organization you represent for politeness. Recently, we opened 3 schools close to Zondereinde, together with the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources and the Department of Education. And for those in the room with questions, may I please ask that you follow the example of this young lady from Deo Gloria School in Thabazimbi and raise your hand. Let's start in the room. Thank you. Chris?

It's Chris Nicholson from RMB Morgan Stanley. Two questions. So maybe can we chat a bit more about Eland. One of the things you could credit Northam for certainly over the years has been the delivery of Booysendal within budget and time, costs. I was looking this morning, Eland, I think you originally talked when you acquired this mine to, I think, ZAR 4.5 billion in CapEx in real terms. Total to date seems to be closer to ZAR 6.5 billion of CapEx. Maybe if you could talk to kind of what you expect the total CapEx budget to be to deliver that to full capacity? That value of 150,000 ounces, has there been any capacity or design or operational changes from what you originally envisaged to actually achieving that 150,000? Maybe talk to that a bit. And then a quick one for Alet, just the tax rate, effective tax rate was 39% in this year. And I think maybe that was a bit higher than maybe some analysts had in their numbers. Maybe you could just talk to what drove that and if we should expect that going forward.

Yes. Let's start with Eland, if I may, and then we'll come to Alet for the last question, if you don't mind. I think what everybody needs to understand about a new mine, you can't ramp up a new mine in a couple of years. It doesn't work like that. And to illustrate the point, Booysendal, from 0 to where we are now, took 12 years. Booysendal is a relatively, relatively straightforward mining layout. As you saw from the graph, we've only been mining Eland for the first 3 years. The bad news is we're halfway. The good news is we are halfway. And no mine will run profitably at half production, and we capitalized the cash burn associated with that production until we reach breakeven. By the way, breakeven, we expect to be in 2027. We need to get to about 100,000 ounces, just over 100,000 ounces for breakeven, and full capacity is 150,000 which we intend in turn to reach at about 2029. So the capital, the true capital is -- you're right with your ZAR 6 billion, but we will still continue to capitalize the working cash burn as we ramp up the mine, which is quite normal. Eland will deliver. And I'll give you a little bit of confidence, a good number for July, which is unfortunately not in these numbers, but it's the first month of the new year. Eland produced 7,920 ounces in concentrate. When you scale that up for the 12 months, please don't multiply it by 12. You must multiply it by 11.5 just to allow for Christmas and Easter. And if you do that calculation, you'll see that Eland is bang on in the middle range of that guidance. And that's in the first month of a ramp-up year. It's a shallow mine. The average mining depth at the moment is about 200 meters. We don't have refrigeration. We don't have heavy ventilation requirements. We don't have hoisting equipment. It's a decline chairlift system. The ore body is, on average, about 1.5 to 1.6 meters thick, pretty wide relative to most of the UG2 on the western limb, very heavy in chrome. Even in next year, one must put in about 300,000 tonnes of chrome for Eland, it's a massive byproduct. If you want to call it that, revenue stream, we see it as a mainstream metal, not as a byproduct. And then on the PGM split, it's over 60% platinum, over 10% rhodium, over 10% ruthenium and a little bit of iridium, a very, very attractive, not so exposed to palladium. Palladium, we are less positive on than the rest of the metal split. So yes, there's a long way to go, Chris. We acknowledge that. I used the phrase on the slide there, it's heavy lifting. And that's exactly what is the required for any mine in ramp-up. And just to remind everybody, this was opencast mine when it was in the hands of prior owners, there was very little underground development. We are effectively developing this mine from a mining point of view from scratch. And it's a good illustration of just how difficult it is to ramp up new mines. It's not quick and we often make the point that in order to solve for that declining depletion. If you had not started your project 5 years ago, you will not be ready by 2030. Can you see what the problem is in the South African industry? There's simply not enough replacement production coming online. And that's why we are saying now quite categorically, quite categorically, that line out to 2030, you now cannot change. It's too late. I hope I've sort of answered the question. Chris. Let's move to Alet.

In terms of your tax question, the effective tax rate was essentially impacted by the fact that we didn't raise a deferred tax asset on Eland. That accounted for about 9.5% of that 39.9% effective tax rate. In terms of IFRS, you can only account for a deferred tax asset, if you can utilize that asset in the foreseeable future. During the current year, Eland made a loss of ZAR 800 million, and we've been very conservative. However, that tax sort of loss is still available to us, and we can still utilize it going forward. We just don't recognize it on the balance sheet.

Let's go in order here. So [ Harrot ] first.

Harrot from Absa CIB. A couple of questions as well. I'm trying to figure out how the new or revised agreement with Heraeus will impact your revenues going forward? So maybe if you can elaborate maybe on what the changes are that you've renegotiated? And then secondly, you didn't show your view on palladium supply and demand. What is your view on platinum being switched back to palladium in auto cats, if prices remain far away from each other?

Yes, palladium is a tough one. It's probably got the most uncertainty in, I would say, in terms of supply/demand. A lot of it depends on ultimately what happens to the North American mines in terms of their volume, combined with how successful recycling is into the future. We believe that recycling had a false peak against high prices in '21, '22. And for a normalized run rate of recycling, which is predominantly palladium, that's why I'm honoring a bit on this issue. You have to go back to 2019 to get a solid run rate for recycling. So we think recycling peaked and all the metal in the warehouses came back to market already. And therefore, you need to work from a new base and our reference point would be 2029, not '20, '21, '22. On that basis, we see recycling lower. It's also important to realize for recycling that the quantum of rhodium in the North American vehicles and elsewhere, the reason I mentioned North America is the largest recycling -- a most important recycling market in the world, will suffer from a lower rhodium loading because effectively, the diesel gate scandal will be -- will materialize now into the recycled loop. So we see rhodium materializing through that recycled loop at half value relative to what recently has happened in the past. And rhodium represents a very high proportion, around about 30% of the whole value of a can. So recycling is under pressure in our view, economically, and we've had a false peak. So palladium is difficult to be as conclusive as we are on the other metals. And of course, Russia is a great uncertainty in itself. And in a way, I suppose, Harrot, we talk our book, we are less exposed to palladium. For us, platinum and rhodium is much more important. On the Heraeus agreement, that's a long-term historic agreement. It is on the detailed subject to NDA, but I would like to assure you that we have a very long-standing and professional relationship with Heraeus, and that was a mutually agreed and a solid good understanding negotiation, if I can put it that way.

[indiscernible]

What I will say, that amount refers to 10 years historic. So it might give you a nice idea. Don't be overly simplistic about it, but it was a long-term historic redetermination. And the last question, I think we probably covered.

Paul, it's Brendan Ryan, Miningmx. You've sketched a very good-looking outlook for metal prices to stay firm and, in fact, increase because of the lease rates, indicating demand and drops in supply. Yet you say you're still cautious on the business and you're wary of what could happen in geopolitics. What is it that you also scared of could upset the apple cart?

Well, the 2 are not directly connected. So the price is really fundamental price movements against supply and demand. And we said we think price will find support at this level because of, as you repeated, the higher lease rates that we see today and have been in place for the majority of this calendar year. . The geopolitics is something other, of course, as you know yourself, there's a lot going on in the world and the great deal of uncertainty with within geopolitics, that's why we make the point that we will remain cautious for now. Also, the price movement is quite recent. So one would want a longer-term confirmation of that price movement to become a bull.

But I mean, assume a war breaks out in Europe, what can that do to the platinum market?

Well, I mean I can't really answer that question, Brendan. You'll probably answer it better than I can. So if you don't mind, I'll pass. As far as I can see, there is already a war in Europe now. Arnold at the back, maybe.

Arnold Van Graan from Nedbank. Two questions from my side. The first one here is you talked about some metallurgical challenges at Eland. Just give us a bit more detail on that. Is that associated with third-party material, which you've stopped? Is that because of the metallurgical challenges or just because of the economics? And then just a quick one on the processing capacity, your new growth targets to 2030. Just remind us, do you have enough capacity to deal with that additional metal or will you have to make some additional tweaks to the processing facilities?

Okay, the second is a little bit straightforward. So the capacity is around 1.2 million ounces as it stands at the moment. So that's covered. And the increment comes from Ivanplats. We've contracted for Phase 1 of the run of mine concentrate material from Ivanplats. That's where we get that uplift. By the way, it's a base metal sulfide type concentrate, which is like butter through the furnaces. So it's good. I mustn't say that to [ Mona ], she, as she's going to probably going to ask for more money now. Then what was the first -- the other one? Eland. Yes, Eland, the current recovery is at 80%. We'd like to see them at 83%. Current chrome yields are at 20%, we would like to see them north of 30%. So there's a bit of capital investment going on at Eland. We may show you next time what's happening there, but a metallurgical plant expansion is currently underway at the Eland mine.

I'm sorry, I'm intercepting the mic. We heard earlier this week about UG2 in sulfides and the corrosive nature of that in processing plants. Are your processing plants designed differently from your peers? Or why do you see it so easily compared to some of your peers?

Harrot, we are fundamentally a UG2 producer. The only source of bulk Merensky comes from Zondereinde Western side. The bulk of production from all the other mines is, in fact, UG2. What UG2 does, it elevates the slag temperature in the bath of furnaces and one needs to make sure that you've got good thermal balance between the quantum of copper cooling and the temperature of that slag. And UG2 certainly increases slag temperature. That leads to accelerated dissolving of the brick work over long periods of time. So that is very, very true. I think our furnaces are very similar, not entirely 100% the same, but not wildly different from everybody else's furnaces. But we have been at Northam, as you know, smelting UG2 for a very long time. Bruce?

Bruce Williamson, Integral Asset Management. Paul, recently, a lot of mining companies have been reporting cost increases that are way above general inflation. And the headlines tend to be pretty negative, like miners are out of control, they don't know what they're doing. Can you maybe just give us a better insight because you're ramping up in a lot of your operations. In my book, you've got a lot of costs that you have to take on board before the revenue flows. So can you just open up and maybe elaborate on that?

Yes. Thanks, Bruce. Yes. I mean there's 2 issues at play with a growing production profile. One is the nominal amount of additional costs you take purely for the growth. As you heard Alet say, one of our cost increases this year was simply the fact that we mined 6.5% more square meters than we did the year before. So square meters is, in fact, the cost driver before the tonnes come from the square meters mined. The actual cost input goes into explosives and drilling and moving stuff. So if you mine more square meters, effectively, your cost will go up against that square meter, very straightforward. Another good example of that is we've just commissioned a new slag plant. You must carry the cost of the slag plant, of course, which is additional people and power. And you've got 1 million tonnes, almost 1 million tonnes of slag behind that, that only gets realized in revenue as time goes on. On inflation, which is a very important point is that in mining inflation is not CPI. We must be absolutely blunt and straightforward about that. The -- 1 of the -- 2 of the largest cost inputs for our businesses, and we're no different. Let's start with people. We're in the midst of a 5-year wage settlement at the moment, and the average wage increment for this year was 6.5%. On the Eskom side, which is a very big cost input, we experienced on a like-for-like basis, kilowatt hour per kilowatt hour over 15% increase from Eskom this year. Part of that was the NERSA determination at 12.9%. But what Eskom is also doing is rejigging the Megaflex tariff structure, which is the differential in rates between peak time and daytime and of course, the threat to Eskom or the competition to Eskom is coming now from the daytime, which is kilowatt hours from PV, sunlight, and Eskom are moving to compete against what is happening in the time of day movements that we're seeing because of the cumulative effect of increased renewables in the country. I believe that will remain a feature into the years to come. So just to point out, the 15% increase in power, 6.5% increase in people's cost, which one do you want me to cut. And I'm being facetious there, Bruce, but you understand. Thanks. I think if we've run out of questions for the moment in the room. If we can go to the -- I think we said the telephones first. If we can help from the operator, please?

The first question we have comes from Adrian Hammond of SBG.

I would like to ask a few questions on costs and upside for you, Paul. I also have some questions for Alet, if I may. Your cost performance, clearly best in class, given the ZAR per tonne, if you look at it from that basis, with low single-digit increases year-on-year. I do notice that Zondereinde and Booysendal have been trending slightly up on the tonnages, which certainly would have helped, but, how is it that Northam does so much better on the unit cost basis? And perhaps you can talk to -- is it productivity or other aspects where you are operating more efficiently because interestingly, you are the only company out there that hasn't done any noticeable restructuring. And then from that, if you may, please just expand a bit on the expected productivity gains from Merensky and Zondereinde, specifically when the third shaft comes in next year, what particular -- what sort of upside we could see? I do notice you get longer-term guidance, though, that you do sort of suggest that there's upside to those figures as you explicitly note with the plus sign. And then as well in Booysendal with the South TSF, an additional TSF truly will obviously increase the milling rates, as you point out. So does that mean the restart of South Merensky and does that mean upside to Booysendal?

Thanks, Adrian. I think we were very pointed, I think, in Alet's speech, it came across that we mine at the right cost. That's a very, very important and pointed statement. You can cut costs in mining. Of course, you can. We can stop development. We can do other things. Is it the right thing to do? I think from Northam, you're getting a very blunt no. We mine and we spend money both on the working cost side and the capital checkbook for -- not just for today's performance, but also from a sustainability point of view because there's always a catch-up. And where the industry will see this most revealingly is in what happens to capital in the future against that falling depletion curve that we've just shown. Can you imagine how much tens of billions of rands is required to rectify that graph? It's not going to be small and it won't be quick. And I think that's a very strong message from our side. In terms of 3 shaft at the moment, interesting, there was -- anyway, let me not digress. One of the chaps was talking on our internal interview process, one of the miners on Zondereinde, and he was explaining how he has to get in the cage and drop down nearly 2 kilometers and then he walks 4 hours to the Western extension, laterally on a haulage, which is, of course, uneven ground, it's not a pavement, in full PPE gear. That's a long way to travel to get to the face. And of course, you must do that or she must do that because ladies, we've got a 19% female workforce as well at the moment. You've got to walk back as well after performing a full shift on the face or as full as you can get. And what that is doing to the Merensky performance is, it's reducing face time very significantly. We're traveling individually 3 hours per day. And what 3 shaft will do, will drop our people down in 20 minutes to the face position as opposed to having to travel on those lateral haulages, footwall drives as they're known, to get to work. And I'm just giving you that intuitive calculation. Effectively, we can give 2 hours a day back to every person on the Western extension. When I say give it back, I mean give it back in terms of available face time. In turn, what that does is increases the probability of achieving a daily blast. So that's why we say it has a strong influence on productivity. But over and above productivity, just think about fatigue, morale and safety. It also will give you -- they're not soft things, but they're hard things, but they give you more than just the tonnes and centares that we're looking for. So that's what 3 shaft will do. I did mention, again, quite deliberately. I think the audience would have picked up, in our capital spend, which has been somewhat disguised by 3 shaft. We're also progressing 4 shaft to give the company optionality on 4 shaft, and we have completed the pilot hole, which is a very important technical achievement, down to the bottom position. And this year, we will remap and create a hole in ground. And once we've done that, the company has an option whether to equip that shaft or not. And of course, that shaft will give additional volume to quite a high degree. If the company does decide to take that view -- that move sometime in the future, and that is a growth option for Zondereinde, above and beyond the 550,000 ounces that we've promised. At Booysendal, we already now have today, post year-end, we continue to grow run of mine. The stockpile this morning is about 500,000 tonnes of run of mine at Booysendal. The miners are doing really well there against the available milling capacity, and the major constraint is the south mill. We cannot run at full tilt because it will exceed the rate of rise, which is a very important technical consideration of the Tailings dam at Booysendal South. Booysendal South has an old -- the old Aquarius Everest South Tailings dam, which is very, very tiny. It's very small. So from a safety point of view, you cannot over-egg the Tailings dam. We need to complete the expansion of -- effectively create a new Tailings dam at the south before we can let the mills go. But in the meantime, we continue to build stock. I know stock is on the minds of everybody, in terms of Northam, but please remember, the stock today is not the same stock you were talking about a couple of years ago. This is new stock. We've built 0.5 million tonnes of UG2 run-of-mine stock ahead of the mills at Booysendal. That's a huge asset, where the majority of the mining -- of the cost of the business has been taken out because it's on surface. And of course, the majority of the risk of achieving those tonnes has also been taken out because it's mined. We have 68,000 tonnes of run-of-mine at Zondereinde. And the solution for that one is very straightforward. Over and above the milling capacity at Zondereinde, we will move those tonnes to Eland, which is a very, very big mill, and we'll do that on an ongoing basis year on, year out from here. And the other big portion of stock is, of course, the 800,000 tonnes, which is a very, very physical thing stockpile of furnace slag. And to date, we have not had the ability to treat furnace slag in that type of volume until we commissioned the new slag plant that you saw on the photograph. So again, somebody said the other day, growing up is not easy. And there are some timing issues here with the growth program. But overall, the company has, on the whole, and that's why I used that phrase, delivered on these promises that we made 10 years ago. Adrian, Alet? We covered everything? We covered. Adrian, I hope we've covered, but otherwise, we'll move on. Thank you.

The next question we have comes from René Hochreiter of NOAH Capital.

I really enjoyed your annual report. It's fantastic. Just one question about the report. Why is Alet wearing a gold necklace in the report?

That's a very good question, Rene. If I can just help Alet out today, she's wearing a platinum necklace. So we'll have to correct that.

I saw that. I saw that. Just -- I don't want to flog a dead horse. But on Eland, your grade is nicely up, but your cost is ZAR 33,000 an ounce because of what you've mentioned, the problems that you've mentioned. If -- and you're about halfway to full production at Eland. If Eland was at full production what would that ZAR 33,000 per ounce look like? Would it be half? Would it be 2/3 of it, just for from my modeling?

Yes. The best way to think about it, René, is if this year's production was at 100,000 ounces, which is the 2/3 mark, it would be breakeven. That's a nice way of thinking about it. You can check that against the basket price, and that would be the same cost.

Okay. I'll do that. Then also, the last question. I see your recycling is still making a loss. It's halved, it's losses, which is, I think, going in the right direction. But at current auto cat prices, and I'm talking about spot, I think it's -- the current auto cat basket is around about $1,700 an ounce. Will recycling still be making a loss?

I would suggest, on a -- the way you should think about it, René, if I could give you a bit of a steer there. As opposed to thinking about the basket price, think about the value of metal in the can because that's the value you start with.

That's what I'm talking about, the value of metal in a 3-way catalyst.

So on that basis then, there are 2 types of catalysts, the closed catalysts, close coupled catalytic converter, which is close to the engine in the U.S. on average has about 4 grams. The underfloor catalyst, which is the other catalyst, has about 2. Can you see that this one is double the value of this one. This one is not economic at these prices. And particularly, the problem there would be the palladium price is low. And newer material that starts to come to market will have a lower rhodium loading, and that's also important for the gross value of those cans.

There are no further questions on the conference.

We're now going to move to the webcast, Damian?

You've got 4 questions, Paul. First one is from Shilan Modi of HSBC. When do you -- when could we expect iridium and ruthenium to become more significant revenue contributors?

Yes. I would say Alet will help me if I -- just give a little bit of time to think about it. Ruthenium and iridium have already have become quite significant, and we'll just allow Alet to think about a big number there. The ruthenium price has actually doubled in a very short space of time. And sitting on the JM reference about $925 this morning, of course, per ounce, and not so long ago, it was about $400 per ounce. And I did mention on a volume basis, we, at Northam, produce more ruthenium than rhodium.

Yes. Sorry, currently, the ruthenium and iridium contributes 11% to our revenue.

Yes. So together, they are 11%. So obviously, the question is saying, what about some more because the market is never satisfied with just a little bit. I think the iridium price, I think it needs time still, and it's tied to the development of the hydrogen economy, which we see real, like more heavy demand coming through by the end of this decade. And on ruthenium, I think it's very, very strong. If I were to put the deficit up for ruthenium, which we haven't done today, it would show a very strong fundamental deficit for this year. So ruthenium is looking quite interesting. I hope I've answered that one. Thanks. Damian?

Also from Shilan, was asking you for lots of forward-looking matters here. Incentive price, what do you think an incentive price for sustaining old shafts might be? And what do you think might be the incentive price that would allow for new projects to go ahead?

Yes. Old rule of thumb. To sustain where you are, you need a 20% cash margin. It's an old rule of thumb in our mining -- our type of mining, and I'm referring now to vertical shaft, conventional shaft systems, mining method. So if you've got a 20% cash margin, that is enough to essentially stand still. And if you want to do a greenfield or something of a brownfields nature, I would suggest you need closer to 30% and above. And on average, the industry is not there yet even at these prices.

And then 2 questions from [ Shashi Sikha ] from Citibank. Water. Could you elaborate on the growing threat of water, utility outages? Can it grow to a level equivalent to the Eskom issues faced by the industry a couple of years ago?

A number of the companies on the western limb, including ourselves, had some terrible difficulties with water supply this year. I'm not talking about the rain now. That was a different issue. I'm talking about the bulk water supply for the purposes of mining and milling. You can't do those things without water, in particular, Zondereinde, which is our hydro mine. And we had significant interruptions or nonavailability of water for a number of days at Zondereinde. And we had to step in, if I can say it that way, to, first of all, understand what was happening and then provide some assistance, and we did provide assistance with some telemetry instrumentation and some teamwork, if I can out it that way, to assess the water board to overcome those issues. So it was, in our view, rather unfortunately, a deterioration in maintenance and therefore, availability of the pipelines into the mine. That's what we experienced.

And I think we're doing a lot of work there, Paul, to improve our own supplies of water.

Yes. Recently, we have received permission to put in our own reservoir at -- our own dedicated reservoir at Zondereinde. It's 50 megawatts -- 50 megaliters, which we'll do. And in the meantime, we've got these dam sucker, I know I might probably be lost in translation that one, but it's a plastic -- big plastic balloons that you can put in series and fill with water to help us in the meantime. So that's what we've been doing.

Last question, Paul, it's again from Shashi. Could you guide us on how much growth CapEx is left?

Maybe I can help with that. In terms of next year, the total CapEx bill will be around ZAR 5.2 billion, ZAR 1.5 billion of that is sustaining CapEx, the rest is elective CapEx.

And further into the future, it depends on what we decide to do with 4 shaft, and that, in turn, is dependent on market conditions.

And that's all the questions I have come through. Thanks, Paul.

Okay. Thanks very much, everybody. That is the end of the presentation. Please join us for some sandwiches and a cup of tea in the foyer. And I'll leave you with the view of the Zondereinde solar facility, which is a really important cost-saving initiative for the group as well as, of course, decarbonization. Thank you. Thanks, everybody.