Northwest Natural Holding Company ($NWN)

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to Northwest Natural Holding Company's Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Nikki Sparley, Director of Investor Relations. Nikki, please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our first quarter 2026 earnings call. In addition to the press release, a supplemental presentation is available on our Investor Relations website at ir.northwestnaturalholdings.com. And following this call, a recording will also be available on our website. As a reminder, some things that will be said this morning contain forward-looking statements. They are based on management's assumptions, which may or may not occur. For a complete list of cautionary statements, refer to the language at the end of our press release. Additionally, our risk factors are provided in our 10-Q and 10-K filings. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. For additional disclosures about these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, please see the slides that accompany today's call, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website. Please note, our guidance assumes continued customer growth, average weather conditions and no significant changes in prevailing regulatory policies, mechanisms or assumed outcomes or significant changes in local state or federal laws, legislation or regulations. We expect to file our 10-Q later today. With us today are Justin Palfreyman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Ray Kaszuba, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Justin will provide highlights from the first quarter 2026, a regulatory update and a look forward. Ray will walk through our financial results and guidance. After Justin and Ray's prepared remarks, we will host a question-and-answer session. With that, I will turn the call over to Justin.

Thanks, Nikki. Good morning, and welcome, everyone. Overall, the first quarter results were strong and in line with our expectations, reflecting another quarter of solid execution and putting us on solid footing for the year. As a result, we also reaffirmed our 2026 and long-term guidance. Our gas utility systems performed very well over the heating season. Our team delivered strong operational performance across all our utilities, and we produced healthy customer growth. Importantly, the quarter underscored the strength of the Northwest Natural Holdings platform and the stability of having 3 distinct regulated utility businesses, making our results more predictable. We are well positioned to drive durable long-term growth while maintaining our core commitment to providing safe, reliable and affordable service to our customers. Our focus remains on disciplined execution, steady earnings growth and attractive overall shareholder returns. Related to that, we made meaningful progress on our regulatory initiatives this year. Let me highlight a few of our recent filings. In March, Northwest Natural filed a multiparty settlement with the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission resolving all the revenue requirement aspects of our multiyear general rate case. While it remains subject to commission approval, the outcome is constructive for both customers and shareholders. The settlement provides for annual revenue requirement increases over 3 years, including $20.1 million in the first year beginning August 1, 2026, $7.7 million in the second year and $8.7 million in the third year. The settlement includes a capital structure of 50% equity and 50% long-term debt and a return on equity of 9.5%. In Oregon, we remain constructively engaged with staff and parties on multiyear rate case rule-making. As we've seen in other jurisdictions, we believe multiyear rate cases could provide greater clarity and predictability for both customers and utilities. While we await the outcome of the multiyear framework in Oregon, which could extend into 2027, we filed an alternative rate mechanism to help recover certain safety, IT and large public works investments. The proposal contemplates a modest 1.5% rate increase beginning October 31, 2026, we've had productive conversations with staff and continue working closely with parties to reach agreement on the docket. Until the multiyear rule making process concludes, we have the ability to recover on our investments through additional mechanisms or general rate cases. In addition, we have made progress on regulatory initiatives in our other key businesses. On May 4, C Energy filed a general rate case with the Texas Railroad Commission. The filing consolidates C Energy in the recently acquired Pines gas entities, simplifying both our regulatory structure and operations in Texas. We are requesting a $12 million revenue requirement increase over current rates. This increase is based on a 10.75% return on equity a cost of capital of 8.73% and a capital structure of 60% equity and 40% long-term debt, which is consistent with other Texas gas utilities. This request includes an increase in average rate base of $176.9 million since the last rate case for a total rate base of $343.1 million. In addition to the existing beneficial mechanisms from Texas House Bill 43.84 and weather normalization, we are requesting the factors necessary to file for the Gas Reliability Infrastructure Program, or GRIP, this mechanism would further align capital investment with timely cost recovery. Even after the increase, C Energy's rates are projected to be competitive with peers in the state. Turning to our water and wastewater business. As it scales, we are beginning to see a more consistent regulatory cadence. In 2025, we completed 7 rate cases. We currently have 4 open rate cases in Oregon, Texas and Arizona. Foothills, our largest water and wastewater utility has made substantial investments over the past several years. That trend continues in 2026 as we invest in water storage and treatment to support growth in the region. In Q1, we received approval for our second Certificate of Convenience and Necessity expansion, adding to our service territory in Arizona. We are excited to serve these growing communities and are committed to making the necessary investments to provide safe, reliable water and wastewater. We filed a rate case for Foothills last month that includes a request to use formula rates in the future. Formula rates are designed to support annual recovery of O&M and investments without going through a general rate case process. Blue Topaz, our Texas water utility, recently filed its first rate case in approximately 20 years. The filing consolidates several of our Texas entities recovers capital investments made since our ownership of these assets and incorporates fair market value rate base adjustments. As our first quarter actions demonstrate, we are taking a more proactive and coordinated approach to our regulatory strategy across the enterprise. Multiyear rate cases in Washington and Oregon as well as the mechanisms we plan to use at Sea Energy and Northwest Natural Water are all designed to reduce regulatory lag and produce a more balanced and linear consolidated earnings profile. These mechanisms also maintain affordability and predictability for customers. Moving to a quick review of our key business segments. Starting with C Energy. Our Texas Gas Utility delivered another strong quarter and performed well during the heating season. Results were driven by healthy 16% organic customer growth and our backlog exceeded 250,000 future meters at quarter end highlighting the long-term growth potential of this business. Looking ahead, we are continuing to see solid growth in the Texas housing market and expect 15% to 20% annual customer growth through 2030 and with C Energy contributing approximately 10% to 15% of consolidated EPS in 2026. Moving to Northwest Natural Water. This business posted healthy overall customer growth of 4.1% in the quarter and organic customer growth of 2.2%. As a reminder, the seasonality of water complements our gas business with the highest demand in the third quarter and lower demand in the first quarter. Even though results were consistent year-over-year, we continued to make progress on customer growth and regulatory execution. We also remain active in greenfield opportunities for water and wastewater in Texas. We now have signed agreements with developers that represent a backlog of over 10,000 connections. Approximately 25% of these are in communities that have started development. This platform is driven primarily by organic customer growth and we expect it to achieve 2% to 3% growth through 2030. Water is expected to contribute approximately 10% to 15% of consolidated EPS in 2026. Finally, turning to Northwest Natural Gas, our largest segment. This business continues to play a critical role in ensuring affordable and reliable energy for customers in Oregon and Washington. I'm pleased to report that our system performed well this winter, reliably serving our customers during the heating season. We remain incredibly excited about our MX3 storage project that we announced last quarter. As a reminder, MX3 is a $300 million FERC regulated gas storage expansion that will add 4 to 5 Bcf of capacity and is fully contracted with 25-year agreements. Since our last call, the project has continued to progress as we expected. Our time line still contemplates receiving notice to proceed by the end of 2027 with an in-service date in 2029. E3, a highly regarded energy consulting firm recently updated a study reinforcing earlier conclusions that natural gas remains essential to system reliability in the Pacific Northwest, particularly as the region continues to add significant electric load. The latest study now points to an approximately 14 gigawatt shortfall in generation capacity by 2035. That's why our storage capabilities are so important. They are uniquely positioned expandable even beyond MX3 and offer a cost-effective solution to our region's growing energy constraints. MX3 is not contemplated in our current 4% to 6% long-term EPS growth guidance. However, we do expect the project to have a sustained positive impact on earnings growth and plan to include the project in our guidance when we achieve notice to proceed, which would raise our long-term EPS outlook to 5% to 7%. Overall, we remain confident in our strategy, our execution and the growth platform that we've built. The businesses are performing well. We are making progress on our regulatory initiatives and the outlook across our company is strong. We are progressing through 2026 with solid momentum and remain focused on disciplined utility growth and long-term shareholder value. With that, I'll turn it over to Ray to walk through the financials.

Thank you, Justin, and good morning, everyone. Our first quarter performance was strong and in line with our expectations. Adjusted earnings per share was $2.33 compared to $2.28 in the prior year period. To simplify our financial reporting and clarify the underlying drivers of the business, we have updated our segments to better reflect our current business mix. Northwest Natural Gas Company is now reported as a single segment consolidating the gas utility and storage operations. This change does not affect our C Energy or Water segment reporting. Adjusted net income was up $5.7 million and EPS increased $0.05 in the quarter driven by new rates, particularly in Northwest Natural and customer growth. This was partially offset by investments in our systems, leading to higher depreciation expense and financing needs. Northwest Natural reported an increase in net income of $2.7 million, reflecting new rates in Oregon with EPS down $0.02 due to equity financing. C Energy's EPS was up $0.08 driven by a full quarter of operations from C Energy and Pines Gas and strong organic customer growth of 16%. Northwest Natural Waters EPS was essentially flat for the quarter, primarily reflecting higher O&M and depreciation expenses. This was largely offset by higher operating revenues, driven by continued customer growth and acquisitions. Please keep in mind that the first quarter is water's lowest demand quarter. We are investing in the online business. And as Justin mentioned, we are executing on our regulatory strategy to recover these investments and earn a return in a timely manner. Overall, we are pleased with first quarter results are on track for the year and reaffirmed our full year 2026 earnings guidance of $2.95 to $3.15 per share. C Energy & Water combined are still expected to contribute approximately 25% of consolidated EPS this year. Our long-term EPS growth target of 4% to 6% remains intact. And as Justin noted, our expected long-term EPS growth rate is projected to increase to 5% to 7% with the inclusion of MX3 once we receive notice to proceed. We still expect capital expenditures of $500 million to $550 million in 2026. Our funding plan remains disciplined and balanced, supported by strong operating cash flow, approximately $150 million of net long-term debt and $40 million to $50 million of equity issued through our ATM. We currently have approximately $590 million of available liquidity. Over the 5-year planning horizon, capital expenditures will be funded largely through operating cash flows, along with a balanced mix of long-term debt and equity. Through 2030, we expect to meet our equity needs through our ATM program. Finally, on shareholder returns as our dividend payout ratio comes in line with our 55% to 65% target, we continue to expect to increase our dividend over time, consistent with earnings growth and cash flow generation. In summary, 2026 is off to a solid start, and we have a strong momentum heading into the balance of 2026 and beyond. With that, we'll open the call to questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Chris Ellinghaus from Siebert Williams.

Justin, I think you quoted 16% organic growth at -- what -- I assume that means there was some acquisition in the quarter because the meters were up considerably more than that?

Thanks for the question, Chris. The -- you're referring to C Energy, I assume.

Yes. .

Yes. On the C Energy growth, there are no real acquisitions reflected in that because it's comparing Q1 of last year to Q1 of this year. So the 16% reflects the energy. .

Okay. Is there -- so I'm sort of detecting some weakness in the Oregon economy that's maybe even accelerating a little bit across some industries and you kind of see it maybe in your meter number for the quarter. Can you just sort of talk about what you're seeing for economic conditions in Oregon?

Yes. Economic conditions in Oregon, they've been challenged a bit for, I would say, a few years now. And we have seen a slowdown here over that time frame, both in housing starts and other sort of macro indicators in the region. However, the customer growth that we are seeing is largely in line with what we expected for the year here. And a lot of the growth opportunities that we are seeing in Oregon relate to our gas storage facility and expansion opportunities as well as just investing in the safety and reliability of our system here.

Okay. And by the way, thanks for the segment update, that's helpful. So your guidance for utility net income growth. I presume part of that is a result of the Cub or the Fair Act, which is pretty restrictive. How do you -- your rate base growth considerably more than that 1% to 3% and customer growth is on the lower side. So it sort of suggests that you end up with a bit of a bubble at the end of the period in terms of a catch-up, presuming you don't get some kind of great multiyear rate plan that sort of keep you on track. So what are your thoughts about potentially ending up with sort of an end of 5-year period sort of excess catch-up to make that sort of counterintuitive to what the Fair Act is all about. What are your thoughts there?

Yes, Chris, I think you are picking up on what could be driving that delta from the rate base growth to net income growth. Part of it is our current view of what the rate case cadence is between now and now in 2030, and you could be growing rate base, but net income hasn't quite caught up to it yet. So all that's going to depend on where things end up with the Fair Act and where we eventually end up with our rate case cadence and in Oregon. Of course, there's always a little bit of lag that we have, regulatory lag that we have as well that would come into play. But between those 2 dynamics that's driving that difference. And it is timing in terms of the specific 5-year guidance range through 2030. So I think you're picking up on that correctly.

Okay. I'll just ask you 2 more because I've got a million questions. But one, the rate base increase that you guys quoted for C, if I'm not mistaken, the rate base number in the last rate case, and I might just be confusing what the request was versus what was approved. But I thought the last rate case was something like $152 million. Do you know what that discrepancy is versus the [ 170, ] whatever that you quoted? .

Chris, we'll have to get back to that question for you, and we'll revert after the call. Going off the top of my head. .

Your next question comes from the line of Alexis Kania from BTIG.

I've got 2 quick questions for you. I think the first 1 is just Justin, if you could kind of maybe dive a little bit more in detail just on kind of the evolution of this kind of the framing of kind of the multiyear rate structure in Oregon, maybe when do you think you might have a little bit more clarity on that just as a precursor to kind of finalizing, I guess, what the rate case plan might be at in that jurisdiction? And then the second question is just from the perspective of obviously, lots of growth in C Energy and the like, and that's good to see. Just also wondering if -- do you have a sense of any potential opportunities for additional tuck-ins there? Do you feel like you need any there? Just kind of curious maybe what the environment down there looks like?

Great. Thanks for the question, Alex. On the Oregon multiyear plan, we have obviously been engaged there for fairly actively throughout the process. From a timing perspective, we anticipate it could slip into next year before we have clarity around what the multiyear planning framework is. This is obviously new to Oregon and they're taking a lot of information in from other states that have successfully implemented this, whether that's Washington or California or others. And there's a lot of parties involved and engaged in that process. So our expectation at this point is that we see some resolution on that next year. In the meantime, just a reminder, we have filed for this alternative rate mechanism here in 2026, and we are in the middle of that process, which is moving along as expected. And we also have -- if you're familiar with the Fair Act, we do have the ability to file for a general rate case in that interim period as well before the multiyear plans are established. So, in general, I'd say it's all moving along as expected, and we look forward to driving that to resolution. On your second question in Texas, there are other acquisition opportunities on both the gas and the water side. And you've seen us make a fair number of acquisitions in water there. And then obviously, SiEnergy, we did this bolt-on with clients gas. So we continue to look at that. But I will say the organic growth opportunity is so strong that we are very focused on that, investing in our systems. If you look at the SiEnergy rate case as well as the Blue Topas rate case, which is our water utility in Texas, you'll see there's a fair amount of growth embedded in that as well as mechanisms that we believe are going to drive or reduce regulatory lag going forward. So for the SiEnergy filing, we're actually filing for the factors that will allow us to file for GRIP in the future, which is a nice mechanism for reducing lag.

Your next question comes from Selman Akyol from Stifel.

Just following up on that last comment you made about putting the pieces in place for filing for group. Can you just talk about what the time frame is for that?

So the time frame for the rate case itself is approximately 6 months. And so we expect that we'll have the rate case resolved in new rates in effect by later this year, sometime in and then the way the GRIP process works, Selman is -- in this rate case, we get the factors to find in terms of ROE cap structure, et cetera. we can then in future years, file for rate adjustments under the GRIP mechanism. And we can do that for up to 5 years before we would be required to come in for a new general rate case. . You've seen that many other gas utilities in Texas have executed on that and has been fairly successful in SiEnergy previous rate case a few years ago before our ownership, they did a black box settlement that did not allow them to have those factors that you would need to file for GRIP. And so we're taking a slightly different tact and want to make sure that we do everything we can to minimize the regulatory lag going forward for that business.

Got it. And then just thinking about -- or just staying with SiEnergy, you previously talked about sort of seeing opportunities for water there as you can grow in conjunction with the SiEnergy. I'm wondering, are you actually executing on that and then seeing where you're actually installing both water and gas as you go into these new communities?

Yes. That's a great question. One of the reasons that I highlighted the 10,000 connections we now have in backlog for water in Texas in my remarks. About 6 months ago, we combined our business development forces down in Texas, really to leverage the SiEnergy platform who have a really strong relationship with developers and homebuilders. So for the first time, we are starting to see communities where we could install both gas water and potentially wastewater systems. And specifically on the water side, our utility down there is relatively small, but has the potential to grow significantly because of how we're approaching this. And of the 10,000 in backlog, about 25% of those are already beginning development or construction on the water and waste water portion of the project. So -- it's exciting to see that momentum in the short period of time, and we're highly confident that it's the right strategy to pursue and just with the overall amount of growth that we see down in Texas on the residential side but also on the commercial and industrial side, we're excited about the opportunity.

Got it. And then just the last 1 for me, just thinking about water. Are you guys continuing to see a lot of acquisition opportunities in 2026?

Yes. We continue to look for acquisitions, but we've seen the market slow down a bit, and I think there's some data out there that reflects that, where we are at with our water strategy is we're in a really good position because we don't need acquisitions to grow. So the organic growth of 2% to 3% on customer growth is -- excludes any potential future acquisitions, and we are not relying on that for growth. We now have opportunities to invest in the platform that we've built, and there's a long runway of investments there. And really optimizing the platform, both operationally and from a regulatory standpoint to try to minimize that gap between earned and allowed ROEs across our platform, which is why you're seeing multiple rate cases being filed each year in the water space. And then in addition, we're very focused on organic growth. So I mentioned the greenfield in Texas. And on my prepared remarks, I mentioned the CCN expansion in Arizona. We have other opportunities like that to really just expand our existing footprint without going out and paying a premium for acquisitions.

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I'll now turn the call to Justin Palfreyman for closing remarks. Justin, go ahead.

Thank you, Lucas, and thanks, everyone, for joining this morning. We appreciate the questions and your interest in Northwest Natural Holdings. Just to recap, 2026 is off to a promising start, and we are continuing to execute on our growth strategy. We look forward to seeing many of you at AGA later this month. And as always, don't hesitate to reach out to Nikki with any further questions. Thanks, everyone.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.