NOS, S.G.P.S., S.A. (NOS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Okay. Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome to our Full Year '22 Results Conference Call. I have the full executive committee in the room with me. As usual, Jose Pedro Faria da Costa, our CFO will give you a brief overview of the results and then the whole team is available for your questions after the presentation.

Okay. Thank you, Maria, and Good morning, everyone. I'll start directly with Slide 3 of the presentation with the key operational highlights. This last quarter ended last year in a very positive tone with strong commercial activity in line with the last few quarters with around 117,000 RGU net adds translating to full year '22 RGU growth of 4.6%. And like before, the main area of growth being mobile with 92,000 net adds with convergence products still leading consumer preferences with 18,000 convergence net adds, also taking advantage of the rollout of a best-in-class 5G mobile network with 87% population coverage that is getting independent recognition as the best mobile network. We continue our path to full recovery on our cinema operations. It's our best quarter so far, benefiting from a strong slate of blockbusters in the quarter, attendance and revenues growing well year-on-year. Now turning to the financial highlights. This is a very positive operational performance in telco and the recovery in cinema and audiovisuals allowed consolidated revenue growth of 3.1% and translating to full year growth of 6.3%. Telco units growing in the quarter, 4.2%, adjusting for low-margin resale business, translating to a robust full year growth of 4.8%, slightly above RGU growth of 4.6%. Consolidated EBITDA grew 7.6% year-on-year in the quarter, telco unit posting an impressive 8.7% growth, coping well with the challenges brought by relevant inflation that is affecting a number of areas. Total CapEx peaked as planned in 2022 with EUR 496 million, this last quarter with EUR 132 million following the accelerated deployment of 5G as well as continued FTTH deployment. And finally, on shareholder remuneration, the Board yesterday decided to propose to the next AGM the payment of an ordinary dividend of EUR 0.278 per share, representing 6.6% dividend yield. And following the completion of the tower deal, this ordinary dividend to be complemented by an extraordinary dividend of EUR 0.152 to be proposed to the next AGM as well. Now let's move to the operational performance review, starting with Slide 6. As we said, we have posted around 117,000 RGU net adds this last quarter, again, growing well in all services, mobile once again being the service with highest growth, but also fixed growing in a robust way. Growth in the last 12 months of total RGUs, as referred before, was 4.6%. Again, very strong mobile numbers. We have posted a very positive 92,000 mobile net adds number with 82,000 net adds in postpaid and 10,000 in prepaid as it has been the case in the last few quarters, convergence being the growth engine behind these numbers. On the fixed area, we have posted solid fixed broadband net adds of 10,000 and also very positive fixed Pay TV net adds of 10,000 as well, taking advantage of new greenfield FTTH areas and also increased penetration in FTTH areas that opened up a few quarters ago. On convergence, we have added this quarter, 18,000 convergence customers, very much in line with last few quarters, ending this quarter with 1,089,000 convergent and integrated customers, representing over 67% of fixed pays. In terms of our cinema operations, we have our best quarter post pandemic in terms of total attendance with close to 1.9 million tickets sold. In relative terms, versus 2019, it was also the best quarter with attendance only down by 21% and revenues down by only 12%, with strong titles like Avatar and Black Panther performing at very strong levels. It is worth highlighting that this last December was the first month post pandemic that we were up in terms of revenues versus 2019. Attendance was still down 7% versus December 2019, but total cinema revenues grew by 7%, benefiting from the strong performance, in particular, of Avatar generating high demand for premium formats like IMAX and 4DX which are sold with price premiums. Now moving to the strategic update. And following our accelerated 5G rollout, NOS mobile network has been recognized by consumers and the independent tests as the best network in Portugal, in terms of 5G, the network with the highest coverage, 87% of Portuguese population. According to Deco Proteste, Portuguese consumers voted NOS as the best mobile broadband provider for the second year in row, and already in January this year, we got the Opensignal Mobile Experience Award as NOS mobile network came out leading jointly in all categories and leading alone on Download Speed, Core Consistency and Excellent Consistency. On the fixed network, our FTTH rollout continues at a strong pace, reaching a total of 3.3 million households. That is around 63% of total coverage, over 200,000 FTTH homes passed added in the quarter, of which around 70,000 were greenfield homes passed, the highest quarterly number last year. And finally, in terms of ESG progress, we have been executing our strategy in a disciplined way, having received independent recognition as a leader in ESG practices. We would like to highlight a few of these independent recognitions. First, we got A in terms of CDP score, the highest possible rating, recognizing our efforts in terms of measures against climate change, also improved significantly our score in the Bloomberg Gender Equality Index, achieving a score of 84%, also recognizing our efforts to increase gender equality. And finally, we also improved our Moody's ESG rating, achieving the fourth highest ESG score among European telcos with a score of 66 and the classification of Advanced. Now moving to the financial review. We have, again, as we said, strong group revenue growth of 3.1% benefiting from 2.1% growth in the telco unit and also from strong recovery in cinema and audiovisual. Adjusting for low-margin resale revenues, the recurrent telco revenue growth in the quarter was 4.2% instead of the 2.1% reported, benefiting from strong operational activity. The consumer segment posted a very solid 4.1% growth on the back of RGU and ARPU growth in line with last quarter, showing very positive trend. The B2B segment declined by 8.8% in the quarter, impacted as referred by a decline in lower-margin software and equipment resale contracts. Adjusted for this impact, the B2B segment today have had a slight decline of around 1%. The performance in low-end SMEs and medium-sized corporates was quite positive, which means single-digit growth in the quarter. The performance in large corporates was impacted by a one-off large project, but recurrent revenues continue to grow at a good pace as well. The wholesale segment posted a 23% year-on-year growth benefiting especially from roaming-in recovery and also increase in low-margin mass-calling services. Consolidated EBITDA in the quarter grew an impressive 7.6%, benefiting from strong telco EBITDA growth of 8.7%, well above last quarter's growth, benefiting from operating leverage, also helped by cost contention efforts and efficiency gains achieved despite the inflationary pressures we are already feeling in some areas, the more relevant being customer equipment costs, indirect and direct salaries and energy. Cinema and audiovisuals EBITDA declined by 2.4%, like in the last quarter. This was a purely accounting impact adjusting for the rent discounts, which are now accounted below the EBITDA line. Cinema and audio EBITDA would have grown 9.1% with the increased activity, compensating the increase in costs like salaries and energy. Just a quick follow-up on energy costs. The impact of the of the still high energy prices in the last quarter of 2022 represented around 1% of telco EBITDA. During full year 2022, energy represented a drag to EBITDA of around 1.5%. Still our energy provisioning strategy with around 35% of total consumption in a long-term PPA contracted well before the energy crisis leave us well positioned for 2023. Now moving to the net income. We have reached in the last quarter a net income level of EUR 33 million, very much in line with the progression at the EBITDA level with overall impact below the EBITDA being relatively neutral. On the positive side, we benefited again from the conclusion of the sale of a second portfolio of towers with the capital gain registered in the quarter represented around EUR 26 million. We also benefited from a positive impact from our share of JV results due to the positive performance of Zap. These 2 effects compensated the substantially higher level of depreciation following the strong levels of CapEx and also a higher level of taxes due to the higher earnings before tax and lower level of tax incentives booked in the quarter. In terms of CapEx, total group CapEx in the quarter, ex leasings reached EUR 132 million, elevating full year '22 CapEx to be slightly below EUR 500 million, the highest level of CapEx we ever had, as planned. We have been saying 2021 and '22 would be our peak years in terms of CapEx. The increase of CapEx in the quarter reflects, on one hand, an acceleration in technical telco CapEx to around EUR 87 million in the quarter, reflecting particularly the 5G deployment effort, which we continue to lead versus peers. And to this point, according to recent data published by ANACOM, at the end of 2022, we have upgraded more sites to 5G than our 2 direct competitors, combined, in our case, almost 3,000 sites versus close to 1,000 by 1 competitor and less than 2,000 by the other, allowing for 87% 5G coverage of the Portuguese population, as we said. Also relevant to technical CapEx growth was the continued FTTH rollout by mid this year at the end of the current fiber partnership agreement. We expect to reach close to 70% FTTH coverage in our total footprint. There has also been an increase in customer CapEx, reaching close to EUR 39 million in the quarter, reflecting already some level of inflation in customer equipment unit costs and also some indirect salaries increase related to sales and installation service providers. In terms of cash flow, the strong CapEx increase has caused EBITDA minus CapEx to reach only EUR 19 million, also affecting the level of operational free cash flow. Free cash flow after interests and taxes generated in the quarter reached positive EUR 10 million, benefiting from the around EUR 45 million cash-in resulting from the sale of additional sites, VAT related to the tower deal impacting negatively these numbers by EUR 17 million in the quarter. On the capital structure, free cash flow generation in the quarter allowed a decrease in net financial debt to around EUR 992 million. This net financial debt number representing 1.81x net debt -- net financial debt-to-EBITDA level after leases, well below our stated target of [Technical Difficulty]. Average cost of debt increased to 1.8% as expected following the current interest rate environment. And finally, liquidity, cash and unused credit lines reached around EUR 322 million at the end of the quarter. And finally, regarding shareholder remuneration, the Board of Directors approved, as we said yesterday, a proposal to take to the next April 5 AGM of an ordinary dividend payment of EUR 0.278 per share, in line with last 3 years, representing a dividend yield of approximately 6.6% versus yesterday's closing price. Also following the completion of the tower deal executed last year, considering the conservative capital structure, our Board has also approved the proposal to the next AGM of an extra dividend payment of EUR 0.152 per share linked to the capital gain and cash-in resulting from this nonrecurring transaction. Upon payment of this dividend and considering the strong level of free cash flow generation we will have, once we normalize our CapEx levels in 2023, we are committed to preserve our solid capital structure remaining close to our target level of 2x net financial debt-to-EBITDA, allowing to meet the future investment needs to support continued delivery of sustainable value creation and remuneration for shareholders. And with this slide, we conclude the presentation. And operator, we are now ready to take the questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Roshan Ranjit from Deutsche Bank.

I have 2, please. Firstly, on the operational momentum, as you highlighted, you had strong KPIs through the year, particularly around mobile. If I'm right, I don't think you put through any price increases this year, so through 2022. How should we think about the KPI progression to '23 on the back of any price increases, which you expect to implement, if not implemented already? And secondly, on CapEx, now you have been quite clear in previous quarters [Technical Difficulty] down. I get the accelerated 5G deployment. Can you remind us about your FTTH coverage? Now, I think you just mentioned 70% coverage within the JV footprint. I think you've done 63% nationwide. What should we expect that 63% nationwide, that were, to go to ultimately, please?

Okay, Roshan, thank you for your questions. Well, regarding, as you said, the strong operational momentum, the strong KPIs, the strong mobile, last year, there hasn't been any relevant price increases, as you mentioned. So only a slight price increase at the beginning of 2022. Regarding this year, we continue to see a good progression in terms of KPI. What we just did in terms of price adjustment was a monthly fee price adjustment, which is 100% in line with the official inflation level. What we are seeing right now is we continue to see good progression in terms of operational momentum and KPIs, and that's what we expect to have for the rest of the year. So on that front, we are positive that we will continue with a good trajectory in terms of operational KPIs. In terms of CapEx, we have been saying, we had our peak years around '21 and '22. In particular, '22, we had our historical level -- our maximum level of CapEx in what regards technical CapEx. We will go down quite significantly in 2023 as we have guided. Still, we will have some more 5G deployments to be completed. We still have some more FTTH rollouts to be done. By the end of this fiber partnership agreement, we will reach the 70%. We will continue to try to increase the penetration of fiber over our total footprint. But this won't impact our target of being, in 2023, below the EUR 400 million number, as we said. So next 2 years '23 and '24, we'll still have some relevant 5G and FTTH deployments to be done. So we expect to land in terms of total CapEx between the EUR 390 million and EUR 370 million number, which is the level we think can accommodate well, still the needs in terms of 5G deployment and FTTH. And once this is done, we feel that there is potential in '25 and '26 to go even below those numbers.

Great. That's very helpful. If I may just push the point, is there a target nationwide FTTH coverage that you're looking at, please?

No, there's no target beyond the 70%.

Outside of the JV?

No, there's no target. We will continue improving the coverage. We'll do it -- we can do it in several ways, but there is no target in terms of -- we won't get to 100%, if this is your question.

Our next question comes from the line of Martin Hammerschmidt from Citi.

I have 2 questions, please. So the first one is on the ARPU for fixed access. We've seen sort of a bit of a moderation in the growth...

Martin, can you speak a little bit louder?

So the first question is on the ARPU growth for fixed access. We've seen a bit of a moderation in the fourth quarter despite the comp getting a bit easier. So I was just trying to understand what is sort of driving sort of that moderation? Is it sort of the mix of customers just getting -- so the quality is getting a bit lower, so you have more sort of downtrading that you're seeing or just trying to figure out what's going on there? And the second one is, could you maybe help us understand the various building blocks for EBITDA in 2023? And maybe if you could sort of -- on the energy cost, could you confirm if energy cost is actually going to be a tailwind in 2023, given sort of you are 35% hedged last year and this year? And last year, obviously, energy prices were a bit higher. So could that become a tailwind in terms of energy costs?

Thank you, Martin. Regarding the -- your first question regarding fixed -- consumer fixed ARPU trends, I think we continue to benefit from positive evolution. As you have seen, ARPU has increased from EUR 48 to EUR 48.4, so around close to 1% increase. Most of this growth is coming from, what we say, base revenues, and this is coming mostly from upsell, adding mobile services, adding also improving upsell in terms of broadband speeds, WiFi repeat service, et cetera. And also, we're benefiting in these numbers from some recovery in terms of roaming-out revenues. Also, there has been some positive impact as well in terms of premium channel revenues. So I'd say that basically, we are seeing good trends in terms of ARPU evolution. That, as you know, hasn't had any meaningful price adjustment regarding last year. So in terms of initial evolution, you have to take this into consideration for 2023. Regarding EBITDA evolution and in particular, energy, I think we have a provisioning strategy around energy, which is -- which we believe is quite solid and believe is well prepared for 2023. As we mentioned, we have 35% of our total energy consumption and there is PPA, which was contracted at very low prices before the current energy prices. The rest of the energy, so the remaining 65%, we can choose to arbitrage between the regulated market, which is a market in which prices are fixed for the full year in which there are also some subsidies. So we can choose between being in the regulated market or being in the spot market, if prices are -- if prices in the spot market are more attractive than the regulated market. So in a sense, you can -- we can choose and we can basically play in the spot market with a cap in terms of prices, which is a regulated market. As we speak, we have the remaining 65%, all of it, in the spot market. We are now taking advantage of the current favorable prices that we have in the spot market. And of course, prices can change in the future. But if prices would remain at current levels, you are right in the sense that energy can actually be -- can represent a tailwind in terms of EBITDA evolution.

And on the salary increase, has there been any news on that front?

Yes. We have adjusted our salaries, beginning of this year, average 6%. So that will flow through the P&L this year. Pretty much as other items, we'll also have inflation. So that is just an example of a cost item with inflation.

Our next question comes from the line of Pilar Vico from Credit Suisse.

I have 2, please. So the first one is on WOO brand. Could you give us an indication of how much it represents of the pie of the total telco revenues in full year '22 or the number of customers that you are currently having under this brand and if you are seeing any sort of acceleration in the traction? The second one is around Digi. I know there's very limited you could share here, but maybe a bit of color in the latest development, whether you are negotiating a national roaming agreement or if you are keen on negotiating with them and what would be the regulator perspective. Could the regulator actually step in and just try to reach a negotiation if no one is keen on that?

Well, in terms of WOO brand, this is an offer which is positioned as a low-cost offer. This has had some traction during last year. But in terms of overall numbers, this represents a very small number. So it's relatively insignificant, the level of impact that we have with WOO in terms of total consumer revenues. In terms of Digi, there's not much that we can comment at this stage. So we don't know of any public announcements by Digi. So we are basically in a wait-and-see mode on that front.

And could the regulator actually step in if none of the players reach an agreement?

Yes, according to the regulation of the 5G spectrum auctions. There is no agreement regarding mobile networks, not fixed, but regarding access to the mobile network, the regulator, yes, can intervene.

There are no further questions at this time. So I'll hand the call back to you for closing remarks.

Okay. Well, thank you, everyone, for being present on the call today. As usual, we'll take your follow-up questions and look forward to meeting with you in the following weeks and months. Bye.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.