Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
March 13, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Miri Segal-Scharia
attendeeHello, everyone. It's a pleasure to be here today, and I'm happy to virtually connect with so many familiar faces at Nova's Investor and Analyst Day. My name is Miri Segal, and I'm the CEO of MS-IR. I'll begin with a personal note. I've had the privilege of consulting with Nova for over a dozen years. And it's truly exciting to be working alongside such a visionary and committed executive team, one that not only focuses on execution, but also fully appreciates the importance of enhancing shareholder value. It's been a couple of years since our last successful Investor Day, when Nova's management first laid the groundwork for our ambitious goal of reaching a $1 billion revenue milestone. Since then, Nova has seen remarkable consistent growth. Beyond the numbers, one of Nova's impressive achievements has been a seamless executive transition. Gabi Waisman has successfully succeeded Eitan Oppenheim, as Nova's President and CEO and Guy Kizner, following Dror David, was appointed CFO last year. This smooth transition underscores the strength and continuity plan of Nova's leadership which is integral to the company's ongoing success. I'd like to outline what to expect during the next two hours. We'll kick off with presentations from Nova's executive team. We welcome your engagement, so please feel free to submit your questions throughout the event. We'll have a Q&A session after the presentation, and we'll do our best to address as many questions as time allows. Before we dive into the presentation, I will remind everyone that some of the information shared today may include forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor statement included in today's presentation, which also applies to this virtual event. And now I'm honored to hand it over to Nova's President and CEO, Gabi Waisman. Gabi, the floor is yours.
Gabriel Waisman
executiveThank you, Miri. Thank you all for joining us. My name is Gabi Waisman. I am the CEO and President of Nova, and I will be hosting today's event. Over the past 2 years, since I assumed my new position at Nova, I had the privilege of meeting many of you in person and I plan to continue doing so at upcoming events. Since 2022, when we held our last Investor Day, our industry went through significant changes opening an entire host of new opportunities for Nova. There are a few things that have not changed though. Nova Annual 2024 results reported last month demonstrated consistent market outperformance as we gained new market share and expanded our exposure. We always put our customers first. as we continued to deliver our solutions, meeting an ever-increasing demand regardless of regional and global challenges. We continued to strive for business excellence, while prioritizing our employees, suppliers and stakeholders. And we have continued working together as a team to enhance shareholder value. Today, I stand before you, proud of our teams, thankful for the partnership with our customers and humbled by your continued trust. Nova's management and Board will continue to work diligently to justify this trust and deliver on our promise to the market. During the session today, we will share with you the recent developments in the market and our company. We'll talk about ESG strategy and about the market's current and future dynamic ecosystem. We will also review the company's exciting technology directions and finally, share our updated financial framework and guidelines. With me today, I have Sharon Dayan, Zohar Gil, Shay Wolfling and Guy Kizner. Together, we will aim to cover everything you may be interested in, and we will leave some Q&A time at the end of our presentations. For those of you who are new to Nova, let me take a few minutes to introduce the company. First, our main goal is to deliver metrology and process control solutions which means that we can deliver highly accurate dimensional, material and chemical measurements throughout the fabrication of advanced chips that are created on silicon wafers. Our technology supports the measurement of small devices in a sub-angstrom environment, in other words, less than 110 billion of a meter. We provide our customers with process control insight that increases yield and reduces time to market. We approach process control from 2 different angles. On the one hand, we shine light or X-ray beam onto a wafer. Using a reflection, we measure the dimensional and material properties of the transistor. On the other hand, we employ chemical analysis methods to analyze exact components in the production process. Using Nova's solutions, our customers can tell in real time whether the manufacturing process is performing as intended. We also use our advanced software to combine physical modeling with AI models to extract better results from the hardware and predict the range of the next measurement. Why is process control so crucial to our industry. 3D architectures translate into multiple catalysts for our business, including larger, more complex dies that require growing number of wafers. They also mean increasingly smaller dimension, complex materials and a leap in the number of process steps at a much smaller tolerance for error. Our portfolio today is remarkably diverse, spanning every critical market segment from advanced nodes to mature ones. This comprehensive range allows us to meet the evolving needs of the semiconductor industry, addressing cutting-edge applications like AI and high-performance computing as well as more established technologies. Just a few years ago, our portfolio was much narrower with limited exposure to advanced packaging and a smaller selection of products. Since then, we've made significant strides and expanded our offering. As you can see, we are now positioned across multiple segments with a broad presence. This transformation has solidified our position as an industry leader empowering us to provide tailored solutions across a broad range of semiconductor fabrication lines. Since 2022, our installed base has reached 6,400 active systems in customer fabs. To support our customers, our global footprint has expanded to 31 sites including offices, labs, clean rooms and warehouses. Our production capacity has grown by 80%, and we are actively working on further increasing it by 2026. Let me take you on a brief journey to our facilities around the globe for an exclusive behind the scenes peak. [Presentation]
Gabriel Waisman
executiveHow is Nova doing in this ever-changing environment. We ended 2024 on a high note with record revenue and profitability. Our revenues grew 30% year-over-year and reached $672.4 million, while non-GAAP net income grew 38%. In fact, since 2020, our revenue has grown at a CAGR of 26%, while our profitability grew even more at a CAGR of 35%. Our agile operational model and strategic focus continue to generate value to our shareholders, enabling us to drive higher profitability while consistently growing our business. Over the past few years, we have steadily met our targets, successfully doubling our company's revenue every 4 to 5 years on average. This achievement has been driven by our robust technical foundations and our strong organizational culture, which is centered around our people. It was also driven by an unwavering commitment to our strategic goals which we have executed with precision. Looking ahead, our strategic plan is to continue this momentum and double our annual revenue by 2027 compared to 2022. One of the ways in which we strategically built a diversified revenue stream is by ensuring we have a broad exposure to the industry to capture opportunities. You can see that we are right where we need to be as the industry is poised to increase investments in advanced logic and advanced packaging in 2025. When looking at advanced versus mature nodes, our revenues are skewed towards advanced nodes across memory and logic. This is where there is obviously an intense need for advanced process control of the kind we can provide. I assume that this slide and the forecasted growth of our industry is not new to you. Yes, AI-related demand has been a significant driver of our market, and AI ramps up demand for energy-efficient computing power and for advanced processing, memory and packaging solutions. The expected CAGR of AI semi alone is encouraging, but there are additional growth engines in place such as automotive, mobile and industrial applications. To meet this demand, wafer capacity is expected to grow by more than 60% by 2030 with more than 75 new fabs being added. The combined impact of increased capacity and increased process complexity spell out a significant growth of our total addressable market. Zohar will expand on these in his presentation. The increasing complexity of advanced nodes drives the demand for high-quality metrology solutions and Nova is well positioned to meet this need. The value we provide is clear as demonstrated by the adoption of our portfolio among the top 5 CapEx investors in our industry. Over the past several years, we have cemented our position across multiple device segments, achieving milestones across our product lines. These include strategic penetrations into leading manufacturers and evolving position in emerging segments and capturing an increasing market share. Our chemical metrology solutions have been adopted by all top 5 players for front-end or back-end applications. Our integrated metrology solutions have been adopted by advanced packaging by 4 of the top 5 players and are currently in advanced evaluation by the fifth. Finally, our unique in-line RAMAN and SIMS solutions have been adopted or accepted by free of these leading customers for their advanced logic and memory processes. Shay will expand in his presentation about the unique technology we provide our customers. We continue to outperform the industry by leveraging a differentiated portfolio and embracing ongoing diversification. By maintaining and expanding our leadership in dimensional, materials and chemical metrology will ensure organic growth and sustained market dominance. Our strategic focus on leadership in materials, coupled with strengthening our position in dimensional technologies allows us to effectively address evolving industry needs. We are driving the adoption of new disruptive products such as METRION and ELIPSON, ensuring that we stay at the forefront of innovation. At the same time, we're expanding into adjusted markets like packaging, broadening our market reach. Our growth strategy is further bolstered by strategic mergers and acquisitions, which enhanced our capabilities and deepen our penetration into key focus areas. This multifaceted approach ensures we remain a leader in the semiconductor industry. Here are a couple of examples to how we continue to diversify our offering. First, with the recent addition of Sentronics, we expect our position in the Advanced Packaging segment to become even stronger Sentronics dimensional metrology will enable us to diversify our offering into the rapidly growing field of advanced wafer-level packaging and specialty devices. This acquisition also opens the door to new customers with additional wafer sizes and types and beyond 300-millimeter production lines, additionally increasing our total addressable market. Sentronics built highly modular, multi-sensor platforms with proprietary sensors and software that extend the range of applications we can solve. It complements our optical CD stand-alone offering for critical applications. In 2025, we will launch the i580, the next generation of our leading integrated metrology solution. This new platform will enhance our dominance in integrated metrology for CMP, delivering the fastest and most advanced capabilities available. The i580 will broaden our application range and introduce a new era of wafer edge metrology in an age when increasing yield at the wafer edge is a key requirement for our customers. This new platform allows for the monitoring of thickness profiles and defectivity at the wafer edge, which is crucial for wafer bonding. The i580 signifies a major leap in our metrology capabilities, offering unmatched precision and efficiency and we are excited to bring it into market. With all this in mind, we want to share an update to our 5-year plan, which we introduced in 2022. In our previous plan, we expected to reach an annual revenue of $1 billion that included approximately $150 million to $200 million of inorganic growth. We now expect to reach this goal organically. This revision is driven by our strong performance, strategic investments and the successful execution of our growth initiatives by leveraging our innovative product portfolio, expanding into new markets and enhancing our operational efficiencies, we are confident in our ability to reach this new goal. Naturally, pending investment timing, regulation and market cyclicality, this may happen sooner. We see an upside to this updated model driven by increased demand for our products and inorganic growth. Guy will address this in his presentation. This updated plan underscores our commitment to delivering exceptional value to our shareholders and positioning ourselves for sustained long-term growth. Everything we tell you here today is based on numbers and data. But for me, Nova is much more than the sum of its numbers. Nova is our unwavering commitment to innovation. Our people-first culture and our focus on talent and sustainability. Innovation is our core, driving us to develop groundbreaking solutions that set us apart in the industry. Our people-first culture creates an environment where talent is nurtured and retained. And we are deeply committed to embedding sustainability in our facilities and products. This holistic approach not only sets us apart. We believe it is inherent to our success. Now I'm pleased to introduce you to Sharon Dayan, our Chief Human Resources Officer, who will delve deeper into our ESG strategy. Sharon.
Sharon Dayan
executiveHello, everyone. My name is Sharon Dayan, and I'm the Chief Human Resources Officer at Nova. I also own Nova's ESG chapter, and I'm excited to share with you today the story of our ESG commitment from vision to impact. Nova's products provide our customers with better insights into their production processes and allow them to overcome challenges that reshape reality. The same philosophy of seeing the handing of innovation is at the heart of our approach towards environmental, social and governance activities. We understand that success goes beyond financial excellence and customer satisfaction. We believe that our business performance is tightly connected with our ethical and responsible conduct and our people first culture. Our culture is based on open communication, close teamwork, and we encourage our employees to think in, out and around the books. By doing this, we foster a space where our employees are seeing hard and feel safe to challenge the status quo. Their direct perspectives are the key to bold innovation. Our ASG journey is a natural extension of our culture, reflecting our core values, priorities and commitments. In 2023, we published Nova's first ESG review, where we aligned priorities and introduced guidelines such as governance, compliance and carbon footprint. Our next updated report with a review of the implemented plans and achievements will be published in 2025. We have already set out to publish a third report in 2027. In organizations, ESG strategy has standard pillars of action. At Nova, we view them as a part of what makes us different. We view governance as our compass to ethical conduct and inherent strength. We see people first as the foundation of our social strategy and our secret sauce and we take the environment as our obligation to future generations. We work to instill value-based guidelines to our employees, our supply chain and our partners. Now let me share a bit more insight into each of these areas. We have always valued integrity and transparency. By implementing those policies and procedures, we will trust and contribute to the well-being of our stakeholders. Our governance policies are implemented and enforced globally. We review and adjust them according to relevant rules and regulations. Our leadership is comprised of an independent and professional board made of seasoned industry executives who also sit on board committees. For example, the Compensation Committee that insurers management compensation is tied to performance and account for investors' capital returns. Nova also employs a professional CEO with deep knowledge of our business and industry. I had the ESG Committee, that meets on a regular basis and reports to the CEO. We ensure business ethics implementation and provide training on crucial policies such as the company's code of conduct, anti-bribery and whistle blower policies. And finally, we have a comprehensive set of plans and means to protect the intellectual property and data of Nova. Our customers and stakeholders. Let's face it. Talent is a critical cornerstone of our industry, and it is in short supply. We prioritize our people first approach because we firmly believe that each person is unique, has their own spark and has the ability to make an impact. This is Nova's DNA, our secret souce which is also crucial to attracting and retaining top talent. We aim to inspire a similar philosophy in our suppliers and communities. This strategy has more than proven itself. More than 25% of all open positions are filled through internal mobility, including 50% of leadership positions. We have women present in every technical and sales position from country manager to service engineer and 33% of our Board directors are women. And the most telling indicator is that in 2024, we achieved a retention rate of 95%. In our community outreach, we focus on direct involvement, supporting long-term strategic projects that empower underprivileged use, promote them education and advocate for women's empowerment. At our key sites, we make science and technology accessible to young people, inspiring the next generation to pursue careers in STEM. Each of our community partnerships last between 2 to 5 years. We encourage employee-led initiatives, and this approach has proven to be successful with more than 40% volunteer participation. Over the past years, we have fortified our obligation to the environment into sustainable and resilient future. We prioritized those issues by setting measurable targets, ensuring transparency and integrating environmental consideration into all business decisions. In our facilities management, we built with sustainability in mind. The latest example is the new building in Bad Urach, Germany. This new property is designed with the most advanced sustainable elements such as geothermal heating and cooling system, solar panels and an advanced water management system. We have also integrated multiple elements into our product design processes. For example, we prefer recycled materials, energy-efficient components and minimize waste where possible. One of our recently launched chemical metrology products, the Nova DMR, does even more integrated with the Nova ancolyzer system, it is the only in-line direct metal replenishment solution. It enables our customers to minimize waste and extend the best life in the production process. At Nova, our ESG strategy reflects our commitment to seeing what others overlook, whether in technology, people, all the environment by fostering belonging and security within our teams and communities, we empower individuals to amplify these ethos of inclusion and care. We actively listen to employees, customers and partners, creating a cycle of insight that fuels innovation and meaningful change that generates ripples of influence. Now let me hand things over to Zohar, who will talk about our markets. Zohar?
Zohar Gil
executiveThank you, Sharon, and good day, everyone. My name is Zohar Gil, and I'm Nova's Chief Marketing Officer. In my talk today, I will share how the instrumental changes we see in the market today and in the future are holding unprecedented opportunities for Nova. Let me start with the key messages of my talk. Over the next 5 years, the semiconductor market is poised for accelerated growth driven by artificial intelligence and additional growth engines. We are witnessing major technology inflections across all device segments, which are reshaping the landscape of our industry. To meet the surging market demand, the semiconductor capital equipment market will require significant capacity increases and elevated CapEx levels. This growth will be accompanied by a continued rise in metrology and process control intensity. And Nova is well positioned to capitalize on these trends leveraging our unique and differentiated product portfolio to continue our growth trajectory and outperform the market. Moving to the market review. The semiconductor market is on track to grow by over 50% in the next 5 years, reaching the $1 trillion mark towards the end of the decade. A key driver of this growth is AI, which is expected to exceed $200 billion in semiconductor revenue by 2028. The largest foundry, TSMC forecasts an impressive AI CAGR of 45% over the next 5 years. In addition to AI, traditional industry drivers such as automotive, mobile data centers and IoT remain robust, contributing to the overall market expansion. The accelerated growth in semiconductor revenue will translate into double-digit growth across all device segments advanced logic, memory and advanced packaging are set to experience the highest growth rates. By 2029, 2.5 and 3D packaging is expected to account for 40% of total packaging revenues, surpassing flip chip revenues for the first time. Additionally, high-bandwidth memory revenue is projected to make up 35% of the total DRAM revenues by 2028. These trends highlight the transformative impact of key growth drivers on various IC semiconductor device segments. To support this accelerated growth, the semiconductor industry will need to significantly expand its manufacturing capacity. Over the next decade, we anticipate an accumulated CapEx of over $2 trillion. The yearly average growth rate in manufacturing capacity over the next 5 years will more than double the capacity growth seen in the previous decade. This expansion translates into addition of 25 memory fabs with 100,000 wafer starts per month and 60 logic and specialty fabs with 50,000 wafer starts per month. Such substantial investments are crucial to meeting the increasing demand for semiconductor devices. From a process technology perspective, the industry must continue to innovate to keep Moore's Law alive. Higher device density enhanced performance, energy efficiency and lower cost are essential goals. Achieving this requires ongoing investments in new architectures, advanced materials, improved connectivity and heterogeneous integration. These efforts will ensure that we can meet the growing demand for semiconductor market while maintaining the pace of technological advancements. Looking at the industry technology road map, the next decade will bring multiple technology inflections across all device segments. These advancements are increasing the device complexity and driver grading metrology and process control intensity, underscoring the need for innovative solutions to manage these challenges. Here are some of these advancements. In logic, the transition to get-all-around and CFIT structure to support energy efficiency. In DRAM, the move towards 4F square high-density cell architecture and eventually to vertical 3D DRAM. In NAND, continued increases in layer stacking and shift from multi-deck to multi-stack architectures. In packaging, the adoption of 2.5 and 3D packaging technologies using heterogeneous integration and chiplet architectures. Across all device structures, 3D stacking and hybrid bonding technologies are becoming fundamental. And with this understanding, I now want to describe the growth in our addressable markets and the opportunities in the key device segments starting from advanced logic. In the domain of advanced logic, the transition from FinFET to gate all around architecture introduces more process steps new material and increased device structural complexity. The shift introduces more dimensional and material metrology steps such as individual CDs, multi-layer bird elements, sale films on structure and unique material property measurements. Additionally, backside power delivery, which utilizes nano TSVs and wafer bonding adds process steps and open new opportunities in all 3 metrology domains. One example is the increase in copper plating which proportionately increases the need of chemical metrology with tighter process and contamination control. In addition, we see a growing need for metrology and process control at the edge of the wafer, driven by the adoption of wafer bonding processes. Shay and I will expand on the importance of wafer age metrology later in this presentation. Overall, we see an increase of up to 50% in the quantity and diversity of metrology steps in advanced logic in the coming years, proportionally increasing the addressable market. Turning to advanced memory. We are addressing both DRAM and NAND technologies. In advanced DRAM nodes, the transition to FinFET with high-K metal gates in the periphery and the use of high-K, the electric materials and the cell capacitor drive the need for extended CD metrology and more significantly, materials metrology opportunities. These have already proven highly successful in the logic segment. As DRAM transitions to 3D, it will continue its vertical growth using hybrid bonding technology following the path of 3D NAND, which will grow even higher into multi-deck structures. These technological inflections amplify the need for high aspect ratio, critical dimensions and better contamination control using materials and chemical metrology for electroplating and deposition processes. They will also accelerate the adoption of multiple hybrid bonding metrology applications. Overall, we see the metrology opportunity in addressable market doubling as we move to next-generation memory devices in the coming years. In advanced packaging, 2.5 and 3D packaging architectures present numerous opportunities, particularly in dimensional metrology and chemical metrology. High-bandwidth memory and heterogeneous integration with chiplets would require extensive interconnect metrology for TSVs, RDLs and more. The utilization of hybrid bonding will expand, taking over 3D memories and 3D system on chips necessitating robust pre- and post bonding metrology technologies in both wafer-to-wafer and die-to-wafer processes. Additionally, the multistep packaging processes, which involves different plating metals and chemistries is already expanding the scope of chemical metrology. Overall, we see the metrology opportunity in addressable market growing significantly and reaching $600 million in the coming years. Moving to mature nodes. We will continue to see a growing number of applications that require these technology nodes driven by market growth engines such as automotive, IoT, sensors and industrial applications. The transition to heterogeneous integration and chiplet technologies will further support the increased use of mature nodes in advanced applications. Revenue for Mature Logic is expected to grow at 10% CAGR in the coming years. The CapEx, which has significantly increased over the last 5 years will remain at elevated levels to support the growing capacity demand. As we summarize the metrology opportunities across various device segments, it is clear that our total addressable market is expected to grow significantly. We anticipate our solutions addressable market will reach the $4 billion mark by 2027. This growth is driven by the increasing complexity and demand for advanced metrology solutions in logic, memory and packaging segments. Our innovative technologies are well positioned to capture this expanding market, providing critical insights and control for semiconductor manufacturing processes. In the last part of my talk, I will review Nova's portfolio, highlight recent and upcoming new product introduction, explain our product strategy and link it to our future growth. Moving to our product portfolio. We offer a unique range of dimensional materials and chemical metrology solutions. In dimensional metrology, we are the market leader for an integrated metrology for CMP and hold the second largest market share for optical CD and film metrology. Our differentiated solutions, utilizing spectral interferometry technologies set us apart and enable critical applications, which I will highlight later in his presentation. With the addition of Sentronics, we have broadened our metrology offering for the advanced packaging markets. In the material metrology segments, our comprehensive portfolio addresses the growing need to control and measure material attributes such as composition and composition profiling, thickness, stress and strain and more. These solutions are critical for both R&D and high-volume manufacturing and lead to enhanced device functionality and manufacturing yields as well as shorter time to solutions. In the Chemical metrology segments, our modular solutions leverage cutting-edge chemical analysis techniques. These techniques analyze the chemical composition of materials in electrochemical plating bets across back-end wafer level packaging and front-end dual damascene processes. In the next few slides, I will highlight some of our unique and upcoming solutions. First, in 2025, we will introduce the i580, the next generation of our flagship integrated metrology solutions. This new platform delivers significant technology improvements. It will extend our leadership in integrated metrology for CMP, offering the fastest and most advanced capabilities in the market. The i580 will also expand our application space and usher in a new era of bevel inspection and wafer age metrology. This innovation enables the monitoring and thickness profiles and effectivity on the wafer age, which is critical for all wafer bonding processes. The i580 represents a significant advancement in our metrology capabilities, proving unparalleled precision and efficiency. With the recent addition of Sentronics to Nova, we now offer a comprehensive and diversified portfolio for the rapidly growing segment of advanced packaging and specialty devices. We estimate this adds between $100 million to $200 million to our addressable market annually. The Sentronics multisensor metrology platform including the SemDEX and the new WMC platform, expand our presence into a broader range of applications and wafer sizes. These platforms support wafers from 150 to 300 millimeters, highly worked in framed wafers and panel-level packaging. We also introduced new applications such as total thickness variation, wafer shape metrology and micron and nanometer level topography. This expansion underscores our commitment to addressing the evolving needs of the semiconductor industry with innovative solutions. Our unique material metrology solutions set industry standards and drive innovation. The VeraFlex platform is the industry standard for thickness and composition measurement in both R&D and high-volume manufacturing. It is the preferred tool of record at the top 5 IC manufacturers and by many others. Additionally, our METRION and ELIPSON platforms offer unique in-line solutions for materials metrology and R&D and high-volume manufacturing, utilizing Sims and Raman's spectroscopy. Each platform has already been adopted and qualified by 3 of the top 5 IC manufacturers worldwide and is in the process of broader market adoption by additional leading manufacturers. We continue to invest in R&D to push forward the performance of solutions to the limits, ensuring that we remain at the forefront of material metrology technology. as the global commitment to sustainability intensifies, major players in our industry such as TSMC, Intel and Samsung are setting ambitious sustainability goals and actively working towards them. These goals include significant waste reduction, increased recycling rates and achieving 0 waste to landfill by 2030. Public statements from these companies highlight their dedication and green manufacturing and sustainability operations. On the right side of the slide, we highlight our unique process control and replenishment solutions as a prime example of how our chemical metrology solutions support the sustainability goals. Our analyzer and DMR platforms utilize non-reagent techniques and smart replenishment solutions to reduce chemical usage, extend bath lifetimes and minimize waste. These innovations aligned with the industry's 0 waste and recycling objectives, helping our customers achieve their sustainability targets while reducing their total cost of ownership. Looking at the elements of our product strategy, we are committed to investing back into R&D, allocating 50% of our revenue for this purpose. These rates put us at the top of our industry and 20% to 30% higher than our peers. The substantial investment aims to secure continued leadership of our flagship products, enhance our support and the market adoption of our new technology platforms and accelerate the development and market introduction of new path finding technologies. To complement the organic evolution, our inorganic product strategy targets complementary technologies such as materials emerging metrology and cross control solutions and adjacent high-growth market segments. This dual approach ensures that we remain at the forefront of innovation and market leadership. To summarize my presentation, over the past 5 years, Nova has outperformed the industry indices and pure performance with exceptional growth. Looking ahead, we see a healthy semiconductor end market with major technology inflections on the horizon. CapEx in metrology intensity are expected to grow. And Nova, with its unique and strategic approach, is well positioned to continue this growth trajectory and outperform the market. Our commitment to innovation, sustainability and strategic investments will drive our success in the coming years. And with that, I want to invite Shay Wolfling, to discuss Nova's proven solutions for IC manufacturing challenges. Shay?
Shay Wolfling
executiveThank you, Zohar. Good day, everyone. I'm Shay Wolfling, Nova's CTO for the past 13 years. In my presentation today, I will review some of the cheap manufacturing implication of the AI revolution and Nova's proven solution to address these challenges. In my review, I will elaborate on the critical role of semiconductor chips play in the AI revolution. To continue meeting the increased demand for performance semiconductor manufacturing is undergoing various key transition across several device segments. This transition or trends create significant manufacturing and process control challenges. As I review these trends in each of logic, memory and advanced packaging, I will focus on some of Nova's proven unique solution for the key challenges today and going forward. As Zohar mentioned, AI and the associated hardware are key drivers of the current semiconductor growth. However, the growth of semiconductor content extends far beyond the direct AI hardware server needs. AI act as a catalyst for many business applications, including agriculture industry, robotics, health, connectivity, autonomous vehicles and IoT. With AI becoming more affordable, it will proliferate to even more application, driving additional usage and increased IC content. Semiconductor devices must enable this increased content functionality and connectivity. The road map evolution of AI-centric chips has demonstrated significant growth in the last decade. If we focus on a few AI chips and GPUs from NVIDIA over the last 5 years, we see that our performance, which is critical for the ever-growing AI and large language model task is growing exponentially. Based on published data, if we compare the 2020 A100 chip to the B100, we can see that the number of equivalent cores of CUDA has risen by a factor of 21, while the total number of transistor has grown over 4x, reaching over 200 billion transistors. This hardware growth has enabled a chip that can run 7,200 tera floating operation per second, 11x more than just 5 years ago. As far as we see, both these hardware and performance trends continue with the next models. When you see the magnitude of AI application, you should remember that this revolution could not have happened without the huge progress in semiconductor manufacturing technologies across all device segments. A typical AI data center has multiple advanced IC components. The AI processor or computation engine requires the most advanced logic, which is now FinFET, but already moving to get all around. The memory part includes multiple nonvolatile memory units of the newest 3D NAND chips, each with over 30 terabytes of memory as well as the DRAM volatile memory, which is built in HBM architecture. And of course, advanced packaging technology is connecting all the elements together, the memory, GPU and CPU. The manufacturing complexity of these new chips creates a multitude of process and process control challenges, including the need for more process steps with tighter control windows, the need for complex 3D architecture and the introduction of new materials, the criticality of the wafer edge for increased yield and bonding reliability and multitude of challenges due to the new advanced packaging schemes. In the next slides, I will highlight the past and expected future progress in critical elements of logic, memory and packaging and note some of the key semiconductor innovations that enable them. For each segment, I will present AGM examples of unique Nova solution addressing key manufacturing challenges. The advancement of logic technology is one of the main enablers of the dramatic increase in the performance of modern chips. Historically, lateral scaling called Moore's Law has played a key role in the constant reduction of the cost per transistor and thus the factor increasing the performance. In the last decade, however, logic performance has been driven by novel 3D dimension architecture, FinFET and now the gate-all-around, together with the added backside power delivery. In addition, and as important is the impact of materials on the evolution of the logic road map. Starting from High-K metal gate for precise VT control, silicon-germanium thin film and precise engineering of SiGe Boron Source and Drain of the emerging get-all-around devices. Precise control of the germanium content and boron doping is essential to achieve the desired trend to ensure low contact resistance and enable hydride current. These are key performance metrics in advanced technology nodes. Looking into the future with forksheet, CFET and even 2D materials, it seems that the logic road map is visible for the next decade. But it is paved with a variety of new dimensional and material related challenges. I will now present 2 challenges in Nova metrology solution used in the manufacturing of advanced logic devices. In each use case that I will show, I will start from the challenge on the left side, highlighting the device segments and the type of challenge and then present the Nova solution and utilize technology. The first example is the epitaxial growth in the source drain, which is a critical step in the logic get-all-around. Precise control of the dope and concentration is essential to achieve the desired strength and minimize defect as well as to ensure low contact resistance and high drive current, determining the transistor performance. Using METRION Inline SIMS, we accurately monitor the material depth profile of the nanosheet structure at a 2-nanometer logic node. The bottom sand graft is the germanium depth profile concentration and the top 3 grafts are the phosphorus doping depth profile at 3 different nanosheet widths. At certain design parameters, such as shown in the sanograph of reduced nanosheet width. This depth profile analysis indicates a critical failure where the source drain is not connecting to the nanosheet. For such a case, device performance will be severely impacted. The second logic challenge is answered by Nova's newest integrated metrology product, the i580. In the era of stacked wafers and devices, controlling the wafer edge for profile thickness and defectivity is critical for a high-quality bonding process in all process segments. Due to the high cost of the wafer at this stage, high wafer sampling is required. Therefore, integrated metrology, which has access to 100% of the processed wafers is the ideal vehicle for such monitor and control. We have identified this opportunity and are including Nova's i580 integrated metrology beyond the enhanced OCD metrology and productivity also control capabilities of the wafer edge via innovative imaging technology. This new metrology enables detecting defects and wafer shipping for CMP layers, monitoring EBR shifts that will harm subsequent processing of bonding steps and measuring thickness profile at the edge of the wafer. This i580 solution is in various qualification stages with our leading partners, providing high value for wafer edge control. These are only 2 of Nova's solution for logic-centric challenges. Next, I would like to share some of our innovation around the growing need for memory power. Fast and dense memory is required to support the increasing number of operations per second of AI chips. Key advancement in DRAM technology have been driven by lateral scaling and introduction of novel high-K dielectric materials, which allow for similar layers, increase be density, faster performance and improved power efficiency. In addition, recently, advanced packaging has allowed the creation of high-bandwidth memory by packaging multiple DRAM memory chips. This is done today with the help of TSV and microbumps and moving gradually to hybrid bonding of multiple chips. The next inflection of DRAM are the transition to a more compact for square configuration and then to a disruptive 3D DRAM architecture for further improved density, bandwidth and power efficiency. To enable this transition, tighter dimensional control of complex structure as well as of silicon germanium material properties are required. One key ingredient in the DRAM growth is the roadmap of TSV, which involves scaling to allow denser interconnects. TSV technology is one of the main cornerstones of advanced packaging, and it is widely used in the manufacturing of AI chips, HBMs, image sensors and other products. A key challenge of TSV scaling is the uniform edge of high aspect ratio TSV in complex structure, requiring tight control of their depth and profile. It is also required to enable the measurements of isolated TSVs surrounded by complex structure of transistor and local interconnects. Nova's unique Spectral Interferometry technology can provide direct and fast measurement of all the required profile parameters of the most challenging TSVs, including the depth of the TSV and the asymmetry of the TSV bottom. The PRISM capability is further enhanced by the VTS algorithm, which by directly correlating with geometrical features effectively measure scaled down TSV in complex structure on real production wafer. In recent years, one of the primary strategies to maintain the de facto Moore's Law has been through advanced packaging technologies. Also in this area, innovation in materials and Dimension are crucial enable a continuous increase in the IO density of emerging platform. In this advanced technology, it is highly critical to control the TSV profile and material quality feeling the overall wafer sickness and to progress variation and especially the wafer edge. Looking ahead, improved process control is essential for the widespread adoption of hybrid bonding beyond silicon and organic interposer including wafer-to-wafer and die-to-wafer bonding as well as the emerging trends of cheap on wafer and co-packaged optics. I will now present 2 challenges and metrology solution by Nova related to advanced packaging. Continuing with TSV, once it is hedged, another key challenge revolves around its plating required to create a uniform void-free TSV field with copper. A key element impacting the electroplating quality is the tight control of the chemical components in the plain bus. For example, to ensure that the copper bus is maintained in tight control, online analysis of the organic and inorganic components is being done by Nova's chemical metrology solution. We use a variety of technologies, including spectroscopy, mainly for metals, chemical titration and CVS to measure the accelerator, suppressor and leveler materials within the bus. It is important to highlight that our chemical metrology advancement also helped to enhance sustainability by minimizing the use of chemicals and reducing chemical waste. A crucial factor in enabling high-power computing chips for AI is the placement of large logic dies alongside high-bandwidth memory stacks, which presents a major packaging challenge. Control of total layer thickness as well as the sickness of each individual component involved is critical as tolerance are getting tighter with the ever-increasing number of components. Such thickness control as well as wafer warpage need to be done at multiple process steps, including pre and post bonding, grinding, polishing, debonding and dicing. Nova's new acquisition of Sentronic addresses this challenge. Sentronic's unique scanning coherent interferometry, which can be applied to both the top and bottom of the wafer enables high throughput and high precision sickness measurement of multiple layers at once. Such tight control is obtained via full wafer maps with thousands of points generated simultaneously with surface and layer information. It is also important to recognize that handling this special wafer is a significant challenge crucial for any comprehensive packaging solution. As you have seen, semiconductor process innovation and inflection create a multitude of process control challenges. I have listed in the summary slide a few of these key challenges. From a dimensional perspective, challenges include characterization of high aspect ratio structure as well as a topography and thickness variation, which are critical for the bonding processes. Better control of the wafer edge is also critical for reliable wafer bonding. From a material and chemical perspective, we see an increasing need to tightly control the material properties in line. These include composition and stressed measured on wafer as well as chemical properties of the material before they are deposited. In some cases, the control challenges involve both dimensional and material aspects. Such as local variability, interface properties between layers as well as material thickness and composition conformality and long challenging dimension. As you have seen in Zohar's part, Nova has a wide diversified portfolio with unique technology, both from material metrology, Raman and XPS SIMS as well as the Ancolyzer, AncoScene and DMR for chemical metrology. Our solution for dimensional metrology comprised of integrated metrology, including the new i580, as well as stand-alone metrology, including the unique prison capability. The recent addition of Sentronics enhances our advanced packaging dimensional offering in topography and thickness process control. Now that I have reviewed the critical role of Nova's proven solution, let us talk about our future technological direction, which continue to evolve at a high pace. We continue to expand the measurement capability of both our dimensional and material metrology technologies by developing unique sources and detectors. For the material metrology technology, we are continuously improving productivity and metrology capability to further enhance the proliferation into high-volume manufacturing. Additionally, our advancement in chemical metrology are focused on enhancing sustainability by minimizing chemical waste. Our commitment to sustainability extends beyond chemical metrology as we invest in more eco-friendly solution across our entire product roadmap. In complex 3D architecture, dimension and material properties are closely connected. By leveraging AI in our proprietary physics-based algorithm, we address both challenges simultaneously. This example, published in collaboration with Samsung demonstrate the combined use of Raman and OCD techniques for in-line thickness monitoring. Lastly, we are continuously expanding our advanced packaging capabilities in multiple areas. This includes innovation and integrated metrology, new capabilities of the PRISM technology and enhancing the latest capabilities from Sentronics. To summarize my part of the day, we saw that the key AI trends are enabled by advancement in logic, memory and 3D packaging architectures. This advancement bring with them new dimensional and material innovation, which create a multitude of process control challenges across all device segments. Nova's current and future solutions are highly differentiated, creating a technology portfolio that is well suited for the exponential growth of the industry going forward. Thank you very much. And with that, I would like to invite Guy Kizner to discuss Nova financial strengths and long-term growth. Guy?
Guy Kizner
executiveGood day, everyone. I am Guy Kizner, and I'm excited to be here today. I've been in the CFO role for almost a year now. But my journey with the company started back in 2010. Back then, our all revenue was about $90 million. Today, it's nearly 8x that size. It's amazing to see how far we've come how we scale, evolved and continue to seize new opportunities. You just heard from Gabi, Zohar, Sharon and Shay about our strategy, market positioning and technology I want to translate all of that into what it means for our financial performance, how we are driving growth and profitability and how we are thinking about capital allocation to create long-term value. At the end of the day, our goal is clear: sustainable, profitable growth with financial discipline. Before we get into details, here's what I'm going to cover today. First, we will look at our historical value creation, how we scaled our business, driven profitability and build a strong financial foundation. Then we will shift to our building blocks that will drive our future success. The key elements that will drive our next phase of growth. And finally, I will cover our updated financial target model. So let's dive in. Nova success is built on a clear strategy, investing in the right areas and executing with discipline. Through investment in technologies, strong customer relationships and the right acquisitions, we've been able to scale the business and double our revenues every 4 to 5 years, outpacing the market. The number speaks for themselves. Since 2019, our growth has been more than twice the pace of wafer fab equipment and significantly ahead of both investments in process control and optical metrology. This gap highlights our ability to capture market share, expand our leadership and execute on the right opportunities. This performance is isn't just about market trends, it's about execution. We've constantly positioned ourselves ahead of industry growth, enhancing our competitive edge through innovation and strategic investments. Growth is important, but what truly sets us apart is our ability to translate that growth into profitability. Since 2020, our earnings per share has more than tripled reflecting both our strong top line expansion and disciplined execution. Our gross margin is one of the best-in-class compared to our peers, a testament to the high value our products and solution delivered to customers. We see this impact extending to our operating margins as well which has improved by 8 points since 2020 and by 2 points since 2022. And importantly, this profitability translates into strong cash generation. Our cash reserves have grown to $820 million, up from $529 million in 2022. This result shows that we are not just growing faster, but we are doing it in the right way. Profitably, efficiently and with the long-term value creation in mind. At the end of the day, our performance is about creating real value for our shareholders. Our strong execution, disciplined investments and focus on profitability have all translated into consistent and significant shareholder returns. Since 2020, our total shareholder return has reached more than 550%, forward-pacing major benchmarks. Our focus remains the same, delivering sustainable growth, expanding profitability and driving long-term returns for our investors. Talking about past performance is nice, but we are here to focus on the future. The real question is what will drive the same level of excellence and strong results going forward. We have a clear path to continue our momentum. And to do that, I want to walk you through a few building blocks that will shape our future success. Let's go into the details. Innovation is at the core of everything we do. We believe it is the most crucial factor in driving our growth both today and in the future. That's why we invest more than 15% of our revenue in R&D significantly more than our peers. These investments translate into disruptive innovation that help us gain market share like the side channel on the PRISM or even open entirely new metrology spaces as we did with ELIPSON and METRION. On top of the announcements made today, we are also working on several exciting new developments that are currently in the stealth mode. These innovations will further strengthen our position and drive our business forward in the future. As we grow, we still continue prioritizing higher R&D investment, just as we have in the past ensuring we stay ahead of the market and maintain our track record of doubling revenues every 5 years. This innovation does more than just fuel growth, it expands our total addressable market. In 2020, our TAM was $1 billion. By 2023, it has doubled to $2 billion. And by 2027, we expected to reach $4 billion. What is more exciting is that our 202710 forecast is 30% higher than what we projected during our last Investor Day in 2022. And this expansion is directly driven by our commitment to innovation. This approach has worked for us in the past, and it will continue to be a foundation of our success moving forward. Beyond innovation and execution, another key factor is our success in how we are positioned across the industry. One of the key strengths is how broadly diversified we are across customers and segments. We serve all major segments on the industry, memory, logic, advanced packaging, leading-edge and trailing age. This diversity allow us to navigate industry cycles more effectively. As investment patterns shift between these segments over time, a great example of this is how our customers' distribution has evolved. Compared to 2020, our revenue streams today are much more diverse, reducing the lines on any single market trend. Another example is advanced packaging. Where 3 years ago, we had no exposure, but in 2024, provided 15% of our revenue. Our broad exposure across the industry enable us to capture a wide range of opportunities and growth drivers as they evolve. Next one is our operational excellence. Operational excellence is a key enabler of our profitability and long-term success. It is about building a stronger, more efficient and more agile company. We are focused on disciplined cost structure to ensure we drive profitability while continuing to invest in growth. We apply lean manufacturing principles to reduce waste, improve efficiency and increase throughput. To support global scalability, we are standardizing processes and systems. A great example of this in action is AncoScene, which we acquired in 2022. When we brought them into our organization, we observed some operational inefficiencies with loan production cycles, and excessive customization. As part of our PMI processes, we introduced structure process, lean principles and efficiency improvements. As a result, their margins improved by nearly 10 percentage points, demonstrating the impact of disciplined execution. And just as important, we are fostering a culture of continuous improvement where we challenge ourselves to refine, optimize and push for better results every day. Operational excellence is not a onetime effort. It's a mindset that allow us to scale efficiently remain competitive and maximize long-term value creation. Our installed base is a powerful asset and a long-term revenue engine that continues to grow and drive value. Today, services contribute about 20% of our total revenue and are growing at a compound annual growth rate of 22%. Our service business is built around multiple revenue streams, including service contracts, time and materials, spare parts and value-added services. We provide our customers with unique features that enhance productivity, improve yield and increase precision. Through effective installed base management, we have also significantly improved service profitability. Our service margins have increased from 38% in 2020 to 43% in 2022 and have now extended further to 46% in 2024. As our installed base expands, so does this recurring revenue stream, strengthening both our financial performance and customer relationships. Moving to our capital allocation. Our first priority is to invest in growth and innovation, ensuring we have the right infrastructure to scale and capture future opportunities. Over the past 2 years, we have expanded production capacity across all production divisions, making sure we can support $1 billion revenue target. At the same time, we are in the middle of digital transformation journey, upgrading our ERP and CRM systems. These investments will enhance efficiency, improve decision-making and streamline internal processes, positioning us for even greater scalability. M&A is a top capital allocation priority for us. And we take a focused and value-driven approach to every deal. Our M&A criteria are clear. Deals must be accretive within 12 months. They must fit our financial model with a focus on gross margin contribution, R&D intensity and operational margin. Most importantly, we look for clear synergies between our business to drive additional value creation. And culture fit is critical to ensure effective post-merger integration. We believe this approach delivers significant returns for our shareholders, and the results speak for themselves. A great example is the internal rate of return of tax acquisitions. ReVera in 2015 and AncoScene in 2022, together delivered a 29% annual internal rate of return on our acquisition, investments more than doubled in our weighted average cost of capital. This demonstrates that we are not only know how to select the right companies but also how to execute effective post-merger integration to unlock full value. We believe that with our recent acquisition of Sentronics, we will achieve similar success. In addition, we have the cash reserves and financial flexibility to continue pursuing M&A opportunities of various sizes, including transformational deals that can further accelerate our growth. Before we move to our financial model, it is important to address the headwinds and potential risk we see ahead and how we are working to mitigate them. The first is geopolitical risk. This includes regional conflicts such as in Israel and trade tension between the U.S. and China, including export control and semiconductor equipment. To mitigate these risks, we strictly adhere to export control regulations, guided by the dedicated compliance team. We are actively diversifying our supply chain to reduce exposure to any single region. For local conflict, we have a robust business continuity plan in place with multiple production sites to ensure minimal disruption. The second risk is exchange rate. fluctuation, which can impact our financial results. We mitigate this through natural hedging by pricing in U.S. dollars across our business to reduce currency exposure and financial hedging strategies to further protect against volatility. The third key risk is semiconductor market volatility. The industry is cyclical and demand can shift quickly. We mitigated this by diversifying our exposure across multiple segments and maintaining an agile cost structure, which has proven itself repeatedly. While this risk exists. We have a proven track record of our ability to navigate challenges, adapt to changing conditions and continued delivering strong results. Now let's move to our financial, and I want to explain how we build and plan for the long term. The first step is to analyze the end market and assess the expected capital expense spending of our customers. Next, we model the implication for the process control segment. As the industry evolves, every inflection point, especially those with more complex structures and materials drive higher metrology intensity. A great example is the gate all around transition, where metrology intensity increased by 30%. We integrate these shifts into our assumptions, aligning with the insight that Zohar shared earlier in his presentation. From there, we take a bottom-up approach, analyzing each product line individually. Finally, we evaluate risks and opportunities factoring in external uncertainties and internal growth drivers. With all those elements combined, we build our business plan. We take a structured approach to scenario planning, incorporating multiple assumptions to account for growth accelerators and market dynamics. Let me walk you through the key elements that shape our model. Our first factor is WFE spending growth. In our optimistic scenario, we assume 8% year-over-year growth, reflecting strong foundry and logic investment, driving demand for advanced technology. In the low case, growth is below 3%, reflecting softer capital expense spending. Next is advanced packaging growth. The high scenario assumes 15% to 20% growth fueled by strong demand for HBM and chiplet architectures. The low case assumes growth below 5% due to the cost and supply constraints slow in adoption. The third factor is wafer capacity expansion. In our high scenario, we modeled 7% year-over-year growth, assuming new fabs ramp faster. The low case assumed 3% growth, reflecting slower fab utilization rates. Inflection points are key catalysts for metrology adoption any acceleration in new technologies such as 4F square, hybrid bonding, 3D DRAM and backside power delivery will drive stronger demand for our solutions. In the low case, delay in industry road map would push our adoption time lines. And other important element is geographical exposure, particularly to China. Historically, our exposure to China has been in line with overall WFE spending with slightly higher percentage in certain periods. In the best case, China drives 30% of total WFE. While in the low case, it reverts to below 20%. Taking all these factors into account, we build our model with a balanced approach, reflecting a midpoint scenario between the high and low cases Ultimately, any shifts in these assumptions can accelerate or slow our performance, and we continuously monitor our market trends to stay ahead. Finally, bringing everything together, I am happy to share with you our updated business model. We are raising our 2027 top line target. The $1 billion revenue goal we originally announced in 2022 will now be achieved organically. On top of that, we expect additional contributions from M&A. Looking at our financial metrics. We are also expanding our operating margin target to 28% to 33% compared to our previous model of 27% to 31%. Thanks to the faster adoption of our new technologies and market share gains, we are also increasing our gross margin target, now reaching 60% at the high end. As I mentioned earlier, we will continue to invest in R&D at a higher level than our peers, maintaining a 15% to 17% range to drive future innovation. At the same time, we expect to see operating leverage in the SG&A, lowering our target range to 12% to 14%. Our effective tax rate is expected to be 15%, and ultimately, these improvements will drive non-GAAP EPS power of $10 per diluted share. This updated model reflects our confidence in the business, our ability to execute and our focus on delivering sustainable profitable growth. On the capital allocation front, we have a clear plan for how we will deploy $1.7 billion in capital investment through 2027. $100 million will go into working capital supporting revenue growth and ensuring we have the flexibility to scale. This reflects 30% of our investment in driving top line expansion. $100 million will be allocated to capital spending, investing in infrastructure to lay the foundation for our next growth cycle beyond 2027. $100 million is planned for share repurchases, where we will continue to execute opportunistic buybacks based on market conditions. $400 million will go into R&D investments, maintaining our commitment to innovation and long-term technology leadership. The remaining $1 billion is allocated to significant M&A fueling inorganic growth and strategic expansion. That concludes my part of the presentation. We cover our strong financial performance, strategic investments and long-term growth plans. Our focus remains on scaling the business, driving profitability and delivering shareholder value. With that, I will hand it back to Gabi to summarize our session.
Gabriel Waisman
executivePlease allow me to summarize the presentation. We demonstrated remarkable growth and market outperformance consistently outperforming the market, record revenue and profitability in 2024 and a CAGR of 26% since 2020. And strategic focus on innovation and diversification. We invest heavily in R&D, 15% of our revenue to maintain leadership and expand into new domains. We expand our product portfolio Sentronics, i580, highlights Nova's commitment to expanding its product offerings into fast-growing markets and addressing emerging challenges, strong customer relationships and market penetration. Our solutions have been adopted by the top 5 CapEx players, demonstrating the value and trust in Nova's technology. Our ESG strategy emphasizes sustainability in property product life cycle and portfolio offering. Robust financial performance and strategic investments. Nova's financial strength is evident with a strong cash reserve and a clear plan for capital allocation, including significant investments in R&D, M&A and infrastructure. In addressing industry challenges, we are well positioned to meet the increasing complexity and demand for high-quality metrology solutions particularly in advanced nodes. And finally, our vision for long-term success, holistic approach, combining innovation, unique technology, sustainability and people-first culture that sets the foundation for sustained long-term growth and industry leadership. Now let's go to Miri, who will manage the Q&A session. Miri?
Miri Segal-Scharia
attendeeHi, everyone. Again. Let me just review questions and then share it with you. Our first question is material metrology is one of Nova's key growth engines. Do you see any emerging competition? And how will Nova maintain its competitive advantage.
Gabriel Waisman
executiveOur working assumption is that competition will come at some point because the market is growing, and we are growing fast as well. Our strategy is to invest in our road map, we invest 15% on an annual basis, and that creates a significant moat. In addition, we have accumulated vast knowledge and experience in lab to fab transfer, and that is very difficult to emulate. And last, we have a defense strategy, a long-term one that includes investment in unique capabilities, better performance and better cost of ownership in order to broaden the gap.
Miri Segal-Scharia
attendeeOkay. I'll move to the next one. Can you provide a breakdown for the $4 billion TAM in 2027?
Gabriel Waisman
executiveYes. Thank you, Miri. So the way we divide it is as follows. If we look -- I'll start with the dimensional metrology in the front end, it's accounting for about 1/3 of this total TAM, so about $1.3 billion. And then if we look at our materials metrology, which includes our X-ray and our Sims and Raman technologies, this also accounts for about 1/3. So once again, a similar number. And then if we look at our Chemical Metrology, it's about 10%, so about $400 million TAM. And the remainder is about 15%, more or less, is for our advanced packaging metrologies, mostly dimension metrologies but additional metrologies as well. And this accounts for the $4 billion. And on top of that, in the future, with the potential other growth -- inorganic growth opportunities can contribute even more.
Miri Segal-Scharia
attendeeOkay. I'll move to the next one. Can you expand on the plan of the $100 million CapEx allocation?
Gabriel Waisman
executiveYes. So I will take that. When we are planning our CapEx plans, we are looking on the long term. And the horizon of the planning of the CapEx is beyond 2027 beyond the $1 billion plan. So our assumption is that we will continue to grow. So in that aspect, we need to make sure that we have the right infrastructure and the capacity to support beyond the $1 billion. So the $100 million that we allocate include mainly facility-related planning and capacity expansions and the infrastructure investments, such as IT and so forth.
Miri Segal-Scharia
attendeeOkay. The next one is some portion of executive compensation tied to the successful achievement of ESG KPIs.
Sharon Dayan
executiveThank you, Miri. I will take that. So the answer is yes. We define what kind of company we want to be, and we build our goals accordingly. Management members are being measured according to their performance of these goals. A few examples can be hiring women internal mobility and promotion, volunteering and more.
Miri Segal-Scharia
attendeeOkay. The next question, there's a lot of discussion around hybrid bonding. How does this affect the need for process control.
Zohar Gil
executiveThank you, Miri. I will take this. So actually, for hybrid bonding, this enables connecting of various types of chips in memory, logic and sensor into a single substrate. This requires a significant investment in R&D, which is happening today. And with this increase in R&D, we see an increased number of challenges around TSV, challenges around the wafer seeing challenges around the wafer edge and also some material aspect. And with these increased challenges, we see an increase in the metrology intensity and our current product portfolio is well suited to answer these challenges. From the material metrology, we have use cases of the XPS for surface treatment, pre-bonding the PRISM I mentioned in my presentation, the use case for TSV characterization, the profile and the CD and the symmetry measurement. For the TSV, there are also significant challenges around the plating where our chemical metrology is expanding for these use cases. Our recent acquisition of Sentronics, with its flexible platform and multiple sensor actually also increase our use cases for thickness measurement and topography control. And last but not least, is our integrated metrology with CMP control and also with the wafer edge control. We've mentioned the i580, with the wafer edge control. And also, we see new application around corporate dishing. So although hybrid bonding is now in R&D, the tool selection are happening right now, and we are well suited to increase the adoption and to see an increased metrology intensity.
Miri Segal-Scharia
attendeeThe next one is, what is the current percentage of Nova sales for AI and HBM in 1 year -- Sorry, I'm just going over it. What is the current percentage of Nova sales for IBM? And in 1 year, what percentage of Nova sales will come from AI and HBM. So now and in 1 year.
Gabriel Waisman
executiveSo first of all, AI is broader than just HBM. It includes both advanced nodes and advanced packaging. Currently, we're at about 15% of our revenue coming from advanced packaging. The bulk of it is from logic. And by 2027, we expect it to become 20% of our product sales with a split between advanced packaging for logic and high-bandwidth memory, which, by the way, includes Sentronics.
Miri Segal-Scharia
attendeeAfter a couple of years of loan and on CapEx spending for NAND, what are your future expectations for NAND-related sales?
Gabriel Waisman
executiveSo we expect nonrecovery to commence at the end of this year and into 2026. We see NAND becoming even higher with multi-deck structures and opportunities that relate to high spec ratio and contamination control for both chemical and material metrology Overall, we expect advanced memory to double the TAM for Nova in the coming years. And of course, we are virtually working in order to improve our position in the NAND in order to capitalize on the opportunities that are being dried out of this technology.
Miri Segal-Scharia
attendeeOkay. Now there is a request for a quick clarification. Is the comment to double 2022 sales by 2027 or $1 billion? Is it new?
Gabriel Waisman
executiveDefinitely. So we presented in our previous strategic plan that we published in January of 2022, a $1 billion target in which included organically about $800 million to $850 million and another inorganic component of $150 million to $200 million. We are now presenting $1 billion organically in 2027. And in addition, of course, an opportunity for M&A, which if we take the previous plan of about $150 million to $200 million.
Miri Segal-Scharia
attendeeThe next one, what is driving the higher gross margin percentage in the new target model, mostly top line or product mix or higher blended speeds if you can rank them?
Gabriel Waisman
executiveSo I think it's all of the above. Obviously, the fact that we are growing on the top line, this is -- have a contribution to our gross margins. all the new offerings that we have, the broader portfolio, it's also a product mix and the new evolution of new products and evolution of our current products with new platform that are going into a new generation of platforms that we have, extending also the ASPs. So all of these contributing to higher high-end gross margin of 60%.
Miri Segal-Scharia
attendeeCan you provide some thoughts on not providing a brand-new target model beyond the $1 billion revenue, given that trailing 12-month revenue is already $750 million?
Gabriel Waisman
executiveSo we presented the plan, of course, for 2027, which is updating our previous strategic plan. We are working on the additional forward-looking plan as we speak, and we'll present it, of course, at due time.
Miri Segal-Scharia
attendeeHow are you thinking about contribution from M&A in the 2027 target model versus prior view of 150 million to 200 million?
Gabriel Waisman
executiveSo there are M&A opportunities that we are currently looking at. As you know, we have concluded the Sentronics acquisition at the end of January this year which is currently being integrated into Nova. We have a lot of interest from the market, and we're very excited about this opportunity. We previously published about $150 million to $200 million of inorganic opportunities, and we want to tap on the same number for our 2027 plan on top of the $1 billion organic revenue that I've mentioned before. Next one, how do you expect the mix to shift between dimensional material and chemical metrology revenues by 2027. So all 3 divisions are growing. We currently have about 40% to 50% current coming out of the dimensional metrology, about 30% from material and about 10% to 20% from chemical as they're all growing, we expect this ratio to remain intact also in 2027.
Miri Segal-Scharia
attendeeOkay. with TSMC becoming increasingly dominant, do you foresee an impact on your margins? And have you factored it into your updated model?
Gabriel Waisman
executiveSo I can relate to bigger customers that are driving higher volumes and, of course, higher volumes entitle a higher discount. Now typically, advanced node customers are buying in volumes, but they also adopt our latest and greatest technology so that we are focusing on the value that those technologies offer to advanced node customers. And of course, we are focusing on advanced nodes business as a major part of our revenue going forward. This is, of course, taken into account and factored in our gross margin calculations that Guy presented before.
Miri Segal-Scharia
attendeeOkay. Can you share the market assumptions for 2026 and 2027 to reach over $1 billion revenue.
Gabriel Waisman
executiveSo the market assumptions is having WP growth of between 3% to 8%. Obviously, we are expecting about 50% of outperforming these numbers. we are correlated to WFE growth. So this range will obviously impact us, but our assumptions and calculations are taking into consideration that WFE growth in the coming few years. Actually, there is a second part to this question, what gives you the confidence in the lack of cyclicality for the next few years? So in the previous plan that we published in 2022, we took into consideration on cycle, which happened in 2023. Obviously, any additional cycle could impact us. We're not detached from WFE. But based on the assumptions on the 2027 plan, as I mentioned before, we consider 3% to 8% WFE growth and our numbers are based on that.
Miri Segal-Scharia
attendeeOkay. Next one, can you update the TAM opportunities across material metrology solutions? I believe prior was -- and then the breakdown between VeraFlex METRION and ELIPSON.
Zohar Gil
executiveYes. Yes. So thank you. So between these, we look at something like around $1 billion for the VeraFlex where we look at film metrology and composition and about $400 million combined with the ELIPSON and METRION for the new materials metrology.
Guy Kizner
executiveMaybe, Zohar, if I can add on that. We see a wide adoption of our ELIPSON product in the recent years. We see it in multiple tools and multiple top 5 customers with a variety of new use cases being proliferated both in the gate or around and in the logic, and this reassures us in the part that the ELIPSON will take in the material metrology. We also see the METRION adoption. And we've already announced one win with a major memory player. We are going through a couple of strategic evaluation with the top 5 customers. And hopefully, when they will conclude, we will see also continued to grow with the metro proliferation as well.
Gabriel Waisman
executiveAnd I want to add just that one more comment that we continue to invest significantly across all the different platforms of our material metrology. And part of that is to make them more HBM worthy and we see this as a potential to grow the addressable market as well. So across all the 3 platforms.
Miri Segal-Scharia
attendeeGreat. And this is -- we just don't have enough time. So we'll just take the last question for the moment. How do you see CPO and used glass abstracts impacting your opportunity? What products address CPO?
Gabriel Waisman
executiveShay, would you like to take that?
Shay Wolfling
executiveSo I can take part of it. So the co-packaged optics. We see this as a trend as part of the advanced packaging basically packaging optical components together with some of the electronic components. We have a variety of evaluation ongoing measure the specific optical components. This can be done either with our PRISM and also with some of the Sentronic sensors. Generally, for measuring optical components optical tools are best suited because we get better correlation to the eventual device performance. And also the general -- the core package optic is part of a general trend of the silicon photonics where we see an increased use also of our material metrology, the important growth of silicon germanium had some significant use case in a long all our material portfolio. So although this is only in the early stages, the co-packaged optics. We do see some interesting opportunities there.
Miri Segal-Scharia
attendeeOkay. Thank you, everyone. That's all the time that we have today. If we were unable to answer some of the questions, please e-mail us, and we'll be happy to schedule a follow-up call.
Gabriel Waisman
executiveAnd this concludes our Investor Day. Thank you all for joining us today.
This call discussed
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