Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVOB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 4, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q3 2026 Novo Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Michael Novod, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Michael Novod
executiveThank you very much, operator. Welcome to the Novo earnings call for the third quarter of 2026. My name is Michael Novod, and I'm the Head of Investor Relations at Novo. With me today, I have CEO, Mike Doustdar; EVP, U.S. Operations; Jamey Millar; EVP, International Operations, Emil Kongshoej Larsen; EVP, Research and Development and Chief Scientific Officer, Martin Holst Lange; and Chief Financial Officer, Karsten Knudsen. All speakers will be available for the Q&A session. Today's call is being webcasted live, and a recording will be made available on our website. The call is scheduled to last 1 hour. Next slide, please. The presentation is structured as outlined on Slide 2. [Technical Difficulty]
Operator
operatorStandby, as the speakers reconnect.
Michael Novod
executiveAll right. Sorry for that. We'll try to start it from the getgo. On Slide 3, we need to advise you that this call will contain forward-looking statements. These are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. For further information on the risk factors, please see the company announcement for the third quarter of 2026, and the slides prepared for this presentation. With that, over to you, Mike, for an update on our 2030 ambitions.
Maziar Doustdar
executiveThank you very much, Michael. Next slide, please. Back in September at our Capital Market Day, we set out our 2030 ambition to deliver mid-single-digit compounded annual sales growth in line with our industry peers from 2026 to 2030. Three commitments drove that ambition. We will grow and diversify our pipeline, we will drive sustainable growth, and we will deliver attractive returns to our shareholders. From this quarter onwards, we will hold ourselves accountable and report progress against each of them. On growing and diversifying our pipeline, we have initiated 7 first human dose trials so far this year. In addition, we have 10 ongoing Phase III programs. Martin will cover the key pipeline developments about those later on. In terms of driving sustainable growth, we are now reaching around 48 million people with our diabetes and obesity treatments. This is 2 million more than just a year ago, especially within obesity, we are treating 5.6 million people, almost doubling during the past 12 months. Obesity sales grew by 22% in quarter 3, supported by continued GLP-1 volume growth across geographies as well as the accelerated rollout of our innovative products, namely Wegovy Pill, and Wegovy Pill 7.2 milligram also known as Wegovy PillHD. In terms of delivering attractive returns, we generated DKK 32 billion in adjusted operating profit and more than DKK 28 billion in free cash flow in Q3 2026. On the back of this strong quarter, we now expect adjusted sales growth of minus 2% to plus 2% and adjusted operating profit growth of minus 2% to plus 2%, both at CER. Karsten will speak to the updated guidance later. Please turn to the next slide. The quarterly development clearly shows that we are at the growth recovery phase, and that is progressing well. Following adjusted sales decline of 2% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 4% in the first quarter of 2026, we returned to 7% and 4% growth in the second and the third quarter, respectively. Additionally, we are happy to see that this quarter, both operating units are in growth territory again. Behind this is a clear turnaround in patient volumes. After a flat end to 2025 and a slight decline in the first quarter of 2026, we have now added 1.2 million patients in the second quarter and 1.3 million in the third, which is quite encouraging. What is promising is that growth comes from both obesity and diabetes. In obesity, we've added patients every single quarter, with 0.8 million in Q2 and 0.7 million in Q3. In diabetes, we have moved from losing 0.8 million patients in Q1 to adding 1 million patients in the past 2 quarters. In short, more patients are choosing novel treatments, and we are reaching them across both of our core therapy areas. Next slide, please. In the third quarter, the adjusted sales growth was driven by both operating units. U.S. operations grew 1%, while international operations grew 8%. Within IO, Region EUCAN remained the key growth area, delivering 18% growth. Across therapy areas, obesity continued to be the main growth driver. And with that, I'll pass it to you, Emil, for a closer look at IO.
Emil Larsen
executiveThank you, Mike. Please turn to the next slide. Growth in IO continued to be driven by our GLP-1 portfolio in the third quarter. The total GLP-1 sales increasing by 8%. Obesity remains the key growth driver, delivering 24% growth, supported by continued volume uptick of Wegovy across regions. From a regional perspective, EUCAN was the main growth contributor, with strong performance across both GLP-1 diabetes and obesity. However, performance in Canada was negatively impacted by lower realized prices following the loss of exclusivity for semaglutide. We continue to be the GLP-1 volume leader in IO with a market share of 54%. We are supporting this position with the rollout of Wegovy Pill, Wegovy Pill 7.2 milligram and Ozempic 2.0 milligram. Please turn to the next slide. We continue to expand our all obesity leadership across IO. The pill has now been launched in 7 markets, most recently in Mexico, France, Spain and Poland, and with further launches planned during the fourth quarter. By first half of 2027, we now expect Wegovy Pill to be available in more than 20 markets. The market response in the U.K. and UAE is encouraging. While it is early days, we are seeing that Wegovy Pill is leading the oral obesity segment with around 90% market share in the U.K. and around 80% market share in the UAE in recent weeks. Six weeks into the launch in Germany, we've also seen solid uptake with approximately 100,000 packs sold mainly driven by GLP-1 naive patients, which suggests market expansion. While the U.K. market share development is encouraging, we're starting to see a normalization in the uptake, which naturally follows a bolus launch will pent-up demand. Our focus is now to further build the obesity market. We'll do this by driving continued GLP-1 naive patient initiations, supporting patients throughout their treatment journey, ensuring clear switch guidance from injectables and expanding subscription options that can improve affordability and retention. Overall, these early launches reinforce our confidence that Wegovy Pill can reach a broader group of people living with obesity and strengthen our leadership across IO. With that, over to Jamey for an update on the U.S.
Jamey Millar
executiveThank you, Emil. Please turn to the next slide. The uptake of the Wegovy Pill has continued to outpace the oral competitor in Q3, with Wegovy Pill still capturing around 80% of NBRxs. This underpins the strong competitiveness of Wegovy Pill. Since launch, we have seen more than 8 million cumulative prescriptions, which remains the strongest U.S. pharma launch by volume in over a decade outside of vaccines. We see a long runway for the pill in the U.S. with current and incoming initiatives expected to drive more uptake into the new year. In Q3, Wegovy Pill volumes grew around 20% versus Q2 and injectable Wegovy volumes grew around 10% sequentially, Q3 versus Q2. Part of the volume growth comes from the Bridge program, where we see encouraging uptake over the last few months. Further, we continue to see the Wegovy franchise leading new-to-brand prescriptions with more than 50% market share. The breadth of the franchise is central to our approach. Wegovy injectable, Wegovy high dose, and Wegovy Pill allow us to serve different patient preferences and treatment needs while building on the established profile of semaglutide. Please turn to the next slide. Turning to Diabetes. The transition from Rabelsis to Ozempic pill is now complete with new patients starting directly on the Ozempic brand. Since launch, weekly new-to-brand prescriptions for the oral franchise have more than doubled, demonstrating the strength of the Ozempic brand and the opportunity in the oral GLP-1 segment. Ozempic pill strengthens the franchise by giving patients and physicians an oral treatment option under a well-known and trusted brand. It also creates opportunities to engage additional prescribers to compete more effectively across channels. Importantly, more than 60% of Ozempic pill new-to-brand prescriptions are from people who are new to GLP-1 treatment. This indicates that the launch is helping to expand the treated market rather than only switching patients within the class. We will continue to build awareness, support the transition across commercial channels and strengthen the combined Ozempic franchise. Over time, the oral and injectable offerings give us an opportunity to serve a broader range of people living with type 2 diabetes. We look forward to the potential FDA approval of Ozempic pill 25 milligrams by the end of the year, which will further strengthen our offering in diabetes with a highly competitive product profile. With that, I hand it over to Martin.
Martin Lange
executiveThank you, Jamey. Next slide, please. During Q3, we continued to advance our pipeline. Starting with CagriSema, we have continued to build the evidence base ahead of the potential launch. In type 2 diabetes, we completed the 6-week Phase III reimagine 5 trials, a robust head-to-head study enrolling over 1,000 patients comparing CagriSema 1 milligram of each component directly with Tirzepatide 5 milligram. This is a very relevant comparison as around 50% of global patients on Tirzepatide are on the 5-milligram dose or less, thus doing a more or less like real-world evidence study. At 1 milligram of each component, CagriSema demonstrated superior weight loss of 12.4% compared with 9.1% for Tirzepatide, while delivering on PAN noninferior HbA1c reduction of around 1.7 percentage points. The results from Reimagine 5 will supplement the regulatory submission for CagriSema in type 2 diabetes. In obesity, we completed Redefine 9, which also added evidence of the lower maintenance dose maintenance dose of CagriSema. In the trial CagriSema confirmed a highly attractive weight loss profile as the 1 milligram dose of each component demonstrated 21% weight loss at 68 weeks. As Novo expands its focus in women's health, as part of our broader consumer RX ambition, we are building our understanding of how CagriSema may address women's treatment needs across different stages of life. Women represent a large proportion of people receiving obesity medicines. And the menopause transition is associated with change in body composition, including bone, increased abdominal fat and rise in cardiometabolic risk making effective weight management particularly relevant. Two recent post-hoc analysis of women in Redefine 1 may help address this evidence. Overall, CagriSema was associated with an average weight loss of 25% in women. A separate analysis examining life stages largely classified using age-based criteria showed substantial weight loss across groups averaging 27, 25 and 23 percentage points, respectively, in pre-menopausal, perimenopausal and postmenopausal women. Taken together, these data broadened the evidence base of CagriSema and support the potential for a more individualized treatment approach, recognizing that patients have different needs and may not necessarily require the high stage. Lastly, on CagriSema, we conducted a Phase II trial in people with type 2 diabetes and painful diabetic peripheral neuropathy. The study in CagriSema reduced pain by 2.4% -- sorry, 2.4 points from a baseline on the PI NRS score corresponding to approximately 38% reduction in pain on top of standard of care with more than 53% of patients reaching at least a 30% reduction in pain. Based on these very encouraging results, we plan to initiate Phase III trials in the neuropatic pain across the portfolio during 2027. Turning back to the broader pipeline. We advanced oral zenagamtide into Phase III in the AMAZE-9 trial. Oral zenagamtide brings GLP-1 and amylin dual agonism into a differentiated unimolecular oral treatment. AMAZE-9 is linked to the extensive subcutaneous AMAZE program through exposure response modeling and bridging data to support the planned regulatory submission of both oral and subcutaneous. We expect AMAZE 9 to read out in 2028. Within blood and endocrine disorders, we are excited to potentially launch the in the European countries by the turn of this year, with a broader rollout in 2027. In the U.S., we're aiming to launch in the first half of 2027, pending regulatory decision. Next slide, please. Looking ahead, we are set to deliver important pipeline and regulatory milestones. Following the comprehensive pipeline update at our recent Capital Markets Day, I will focus today on a few key highlights. Starting with obesity Amylin 355 recently advanced into Phase II with an expected readout in the second half of 2027. The trial investigates both subcutaneous and oral Amylin 355 in around 170 patients with overweight and obesity. For the oral formulation, we see the potential to leverage the Amylin biology to deliver a meaningful double-digit weight loss with potential fewer side effects. Continuing in the oral obesity space. We are anticipating the Phase I results of the oral ACSL5 inhibitor in the second half of 2027. ACSL5 inhibition is a non-GLP-1 oral small molecule approach with the potential to deliver double-digit weight loss alongside a differentiated tolerability profile and no need for dose titration. As a small molecule, it also offers the potential for high scalability. Cagrilintide with its amylin-based biology is expected to expand into a new patient pool and set a new standard for tolerability. Later this year, we expect to initiate Phase III of the high dose of cagrilintide. Further, we anticipate Phase III results of the renew -- sorry, RENEW 1 and 2 programs around mid-2027. Lastly, with obesity, we anticipate Phase I/II results for both of our tri-agonists in the first half of 2027. These include UBT251 targets and the receptors of GLP-1, GIP and glucagon, and our internal triple molecule targeting GLP-1 GLP and amylin. Within liver disease, we submitted mass data for all semaglutide 25-milligram in the U.S. The submission is based on Part 1 of the trial investigating semaglutide 2.4 milligram in mesh with moderate to advanced liver fibrosis. We're anticipating a U.S. decision in the first half of 2027. In addition, we are still anticipating Phase III safety results from the Synchrony real world trial of in people living with and fibrosis stages F1 to F4. The trial's primary endpoint is safety and tolerability. With that, over to you, Karsten.
Karsten Knudsen
executiveThank you, Martin. Please turn to the next slide. In the third quarter of 2026, our adjusted sales increased by 4%, reaching DKK 79.2 billion. This was driven by continued GLP-1 volume growth across U.S. and IO, primarily in obesity. Adjusted operating profit increased by 27% driven by GLP-1 sales growth and a favorable comparison base following approximately DKK 9 billion of company-wide transformation costs recognized in the third quarter of 2025. This was partially offset by around DKK 3.5 billion of onetime costs recognized in Q3 2026 within other operating expenses and R&D. For the first 9 months of 2026, Novo has delivered better-than-expected sales and operating profits. As a result, we have raised our guidance again. The adjusted sales growth is now expected to be from minus 2% to plus 2% at CER. The improvement in the outlook is mainly driven by increased expectations for GLP-1 product sales. The outlook reflects expectations for sales growth within I/O and expectations for sales decline within U.S. operations. In IO, the outlook is based on current growth trends, including continued volume penetration from GLP-1 treatments and market expansion. Novo continues to roll out the Wegovy product portfolio in more markets during 2026, including the Wegovy Pill. In U.S. operations, the outlook is based on current prescription trends for the injectable TH1 portfolio. Lower realized prices linked to investments in market access amplified by the MFN agreement are assumed. Uptake related to the launch of Wegovy Pill is reflected in the outlook based on a range of assumptions. Adjusted operating profit growth is now expected to be from minus 2% to plus 2% at constant exchange rates. The raised adjusted operating profit growth outlook reflects the improved sales outlook combined with targeted investments in current and future growth opportunities within R&D and commercial. This is partially funded by reinvestment of savings from the company-wide transformation program started in 2025 as well as further optimization initiatives and disciplined resource allocation. Our key modeling considerations for 2026 are shown on the slide including the improved free cash flow outlook now expected between DKK 60 million and DKK 70 billion. That was the outlook for 2026. Now over to you, Mike.
Maziar Doustdar
executiveThank you, Karsten. Next slide, please. As we closed yet another strong quarter above expectations and another guidance raise, I would also like us to take a moment and focus on what comes next. I've been at Novo for more than 30 years, and I can truthfully say that few things energize this organization like new launches. The coming period will bring 2 exciting potential launches. FREHEMGO and CagriSema. Let me start on the left side with FREHEMGO. People living with hemophilia have been asked to accept the trade-off between good protection and a heavy treatment burden for way too long. FREHEMGO is designed to remove that exact trade-off. The Frontier program demonstrated durable bleeding protections with the flexibility and the convenience of a once weekly once every second week or once-monthly injection in a simple, safe and easy-to-use device. That means more time living and less time managing a disease. Our job now is to make switching from today's standard of care seamless, safe and the preferred choice for patients and doctors. That is exactly why I'm excited to roll out FREHEMGO globally during 2027 pending approval. Turning to CagriSema. Here, our job is simple. We need to get it to patients fast across channels. We are preparing as we speak. So we can go from approval to launch as quickly as possible. We will use Novo Care and our partners to reach consumers directly and make the customer experience as seamless and as simple as possible. So to sum up, we have delivered a strong quarter, raised our guidance again and introduced a new strategy, culture and a brand for Novo. Across the organization, we are focusing on turning our innovation into successful launches that makes a meaningful difference for patients and society. I'm excited about what lies ahead for Novo and look forward to sharing our progress quarter after quarter. Next slide, please. Before we open for Q&A, I would like to say a few words about the change in our executive management. As announced earlier today, our CFO, Karsten, is leaving Novo after 27 years with the company. Throughout his career, Karsten has made a lasting contribution to Novo, most notably over the past 9 years as CFO. He has been a trusted colleague and a highly respected leader known for his integrity and sound judgment and genuine commitment to patients and our people. On behalf of the entire Board of Directors, executive management and all of our employees, thank you, Karsten, for your many years of dedication, we wish you every success in the future. At the same time, I am excited to welcome Luigi La Corte as our incoming CFO. Luigi joins us from Galderma as CFO, and he brings more than 30 years of international financial leadership experience across health care and consumer businesses. Karsten will remain with the company until end of this year to ensure a smooth transition and therefore, we turn to Q&A now. I would like -- before doing that, though, give the word to you, Karsten, for a few words.
Karsten Knudsen
executiveThank you for your kind words, Mike. As Mike mentioned, this will be my last conference call as CFO at Novo. It has been a privilege to serve this company and to engage with all of you. Your questions, challenges and insights have consistently made us sharper and I have truly valued our open and constructive dialogue over the years. I leave with great confidence in our strategy, our strong financial foundation and above all, the people who drive Novo forward every day. Thank you all for your trust and support over the years. And with that, let's open up for Q&A. Over to you, Michael.
Michael Novod
executiveThank you, Karsten. Thank you, Mike. Next slide, please. With that, we're now ready for the Q&A, where I kindly ask all participants to limit her or himself to 1 or maximum 2 questions, including subquestions. Operator, we're now ready to take the first question.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Peter Verdult from BNP Paribas.
Peter Verdult
analystPete Verdult from BNP Paribas. I rarely do this on a public conference call, but I will make an exception this time for Karsten to say thanks for the interactions over the years and best wishes on your next career chapter. On to the questions, two for you, Mike. Just firstly, on the upcoming CagriSema approval, is the probability of CagriSema having some sort of halo effect of a Wegovy-containing brand name high, medium or low? And then secondly, I realize you're not going to provide any official guidance ahead of a CFO change, but a frequent question we get from investors is whether Novo can return to revenue growth in '27. I know there are many moving parts. I just wanted to keep the ties with you on your confidence that a positive growth number could feature in any guidance range you provide in February given what you're seeing across IO markets with a pill and post the Ozempic pill launch.
Michael Novod
executiveThank you very much, Pete. So that was sort of 1.5 question. So both questions for Mike around first, CagriSema and sort of the halo. And then secondly, on close to '27, although we don't guide to '27.
Maziar Doustdar
executiveSo thanks, Pete. To answer your question on CagriSema, the brand name ends with Sema. So there's semaglutide in there, but there is more than Sema insight, which actually makes us incredibly excited. I think the introduction of Amylin as the first comp to do that, gives us a huge opportunity to build on the credibility that semaglutide has had for so many years and Wegovy, of course, brand, but go beyond that. I would say it's medium. It's not it's not high. It's not low, it's medium because we actually think that this is much, much more than semaglutide on the back of Amylin being mixed with it. On the 2027 I think you are correct. As usual, we're not going to guide, but let me go out of my way and provide even more building blocks for next year. So maybe you can do your own math. I think the starting point, of course, is that we are nicely positioned in a growing GLP-1 market with a good runway and still quite a bit of unmet need as we have been able to show this year with our volume upticks, both on the injectable side as well as the PI. We start 2027 with the current runway and how we will end December. We just guided a midpoint of 0% for the first 9 months. We will monitor how October, November and December will also look like and that's how really we build our own budget as well as, of course, the guidance to you. Now as usual, we'll have some pushes and some pulls, some pluses and minuses, let me give you 3 plus and 3 minus. The pluses for us next year is the continued Wegovy Pill uptake in U.S. and IO. I don't foresee why should that completely change and how well we've done both in U.S. and in IO does not change just because January comes after December. The other plus is we have seen a good uptick in U.S. Bridge program. That program started mid this year. So you need to annualize it when you make your calculation for next year. Then the third positive element, I would say, is the 2 launches I just spoke about. CagriSema, FREHEMGO are 2 launches where we plan to introduce CagriSema in U.S., FREHEMGO in both sides of the Atlantic and hopefully, both of those will prove to be fantastic launches. On the negative side, I would say we've talked about the LOE this year in international operations and the early LOE markets. We have seen some of that already, more of it in Q3 than we saw in Q2. And next year, I would say, annualize that and see how that goes. Then the continued headwind that you currently see in China, minus 2% that we just showed, it's not going to go away just because Christmas turns into, again, a new year. And in addition, in China, we have loss of exclusivity next year, which we need to take into consideration. And then last, maybe why not least, you see some favorable gross to net in 2026 that we should maybe under normal circumstances, not expect to the same degree next year. I don't know that. So those are the pluses and the minuses as far as I can go. And then we will, of course, guide with all of this in mind in 2027 at the full year announcement.
Michael Novod
executiveAll right. Thank you, Mike, and to the brand name for CagriSema, that will come in due time. Next question, please.
Operator
operatorAnd our next question comes from the line of Sachin Jain from Bank of America.
Sachin Jain
analystOne for Jamey, one for Emil. For Jamey, on the U.S., Wegovy Pill script trends. Thanks for commenting to sequential growth. On your data, how much of that growth is the Bridge program? Are they just the bulk of Medicare and that's sequentially slurry, perhaps you could comment to that? And any color on why ex Medicare trends are flattish, if that's correct. For Emil, you commented on U.K. normalizing just after an updated pack number relative to the 65,000 per week you gave at the CMB. And perhaps I can just squeeze in a clarification from Mike. When you talk about current momentum continuing, I was a little bit confused in the answer to Pete's question, is the midpoint of guide 0% best proxy or the recent 2Q, 3Q growth rate of mid-single digits?
Michael Novod
executiveThank you, Sachin. So we'll stick with the 2 first questions. It's already beyond the #1. So first one question to Jamey on Bridge and then a question to Emil on uptake in IO.
Jamey Millar
executiveYes. Thanks, Sachin. Relative to Bridge, latest weekly data, we're seeing about 60,000 TRxs across injectable and oral in terms of Bridge. So the sequential growth of 20% in the quarter is largely been not exclusively Bridge volume. For the whole category, if you look May to October, and eliminate the contribution of the Bridge, the whole category is relatively flat, consistent with the seasonality that you see in that period outside of the consumer activation that we see in the wellness period that starts here in the fourth quarter and really peaks at the beginning of the year, with New Year's resolutions and a recommitment to health, if you will.
Emil Larsen
executiveYes. On the U.K., we are still very pleased with 90% market share despite a competitor launch, of course, is very strong. In terms of how we fare versus what we shared at the Capital Markets Day, back then talked about 65,000 as weekly sales. Now we are probably around 60,000. So despite a competitor launch super strong and also with the seasonality at the moment being a bit low. We move into November, December, that's typically peak where the online providers also invest heavily. I think what you should also take note of which we really are keenly focusing on is, of course, that this is not cannibalizing our injectable business. So that's perhaps what I'm most pleased about. This is really adding to our overall market share. So we are still faring more than 10 percentage points higher than we did prior to the launch overall. So very positive. Now the focus, of course, is to build the segment, the class, that's probably up to us given our overall leadership with 90%. So we are focusing on subscription models, proving very successful for the providers to offer that focusing on clear switch guidance in the U.K. There are a lot of people with obesity who have tried the GLP-1. So if they've been on an injectable, we want to work with the private providers to ensure they start on the right dose. So there's a lot of the long haul of building this segment, but so far, we really see good synergistic effects between injectables and the pill, and that's perhaps what we are really celebrating at the moment.
Michael Novod
executiveThank you very clear, Emil and Jamey. Next question, please.
Operator
operatorAnd our next question comes from the line of Simon Baker from Rothschild & Co Redburn.
Simon Baker
analystLet me echo Pete's comments earlier and wish you the robust for the future, Karsten. So on Wegovy, I wonder if you could give us an update on the impact of the subscription program. Is that affecting the capture rate of scripts that we're seeing because we kind of have to assume it's constant, but maybe it isn't. And then secondly, on Wegovy high dose. You hopefully told us that it's 5% of total Wegovy Scripts in the U.S. But I wonder if you could give us any more color both within and outside the U.S. on where that's coming from. Are these predominantly titrations up from Wegovy, switches from tirzepatide or patients starting afresh on that therapy. Any color on that would be really helpful.
Michael Novod
executiveThank you very much, Simon. So questions for Jamey to start with, and then maybe Emil can add a bit of color, at least on initial expectations.
Jamey Millar
executiveYes. So first question related to capture rate. The low capture relative low capture rates from IQVIA are not isolated simply to the subscription model. We have a much more extensive ecosystem of partners for Wegovy than our competitor, and those partners don't report to IQVIA in absolute terms. So we've consistently seeing a lower capture rate for Wegovy Pill than the competitive oral product. So not explained specifically by the subscription model. In terms of Wegovy high dose, the 7.2 milligram as you stated, about 20,000 prescriptions a week, 5% of total volume. If you look at the injectable business, both Lilly's and ours, about 15% of the TRxs are in the highest dose -- so there is still opportunity to move Wegovy HD further. 80%, your specific question, 80% of Wegovy high dose is titration from 2.4 milligrams. So those 20,000 scripts a week are scripts that otherwise would have been lost to the Wegovy franchise.
Emil Larsen
executiveYes. I mean, we talk a lot about the Wegovy Pill. But of course, year-to-date, it really is the Wegovy Injectables that has been driving our growth in IO with a very, very strong volume uptake and I would say, very disciplined in pricing where we've not given up. So just to give you a sense that volume growth year-to-date for Wegovy Injectable, been close to 70%, so very, very meaningful. That's, of course, why the high dose launches 7.2, we call the IO top priority. We promised more than 30 launches by the end of the year, and we'll get there. We've had 3 so far. The one where we have the most meaningful experience from is the U.K. We launched back early June. And today, around 5% of our injectable patients have already started on a high dose. That's pretty good. And we, of course, keep supporting that. We, over time, will also look at, of course, how can we facilitate patients who have maxed out on Wegovy Pill 25-milligram and also offer them an even more efficacious treatment with 7.2. So we give a lot of priority to this just launched in Germany, Poland and the rollout continues these very weeks.
Michael Novod
executiveNext question, please.
Operator
operatorAnd our next question comes from the line of Martin Parkhoi from SEB.
Martin Parkhoi
analystMartin Parkhoi for SEB. With the 2 questions. Just a question for Martin. With respect to expectations ahead of the Phase I/II readout in obesity of the 2 trial agonist. I'm not expecting you to give some kind of indication of where you see the weight loss. I would more like to get you to get some expectations of how we should view the adverse event profile going out to this because there has been some noise when Novo Nordisk come out for Q2 -- sorry, with the Phase II results and high level of adverse events. How have the trials on the triagonist been set up with respect to this just to control expectations? And then secondly, maybe that is for me, we can see in U.S. that the Ozempic pill rebranding has been quite a success so far. Does that make any sense also to do that in some of the IO markets where Ozempic also is a high household name?
Michael Novod
executiveThank you, Martin. First question to Martin around triple reading out and then to Emil on the IO question.
Martin Lange
executiveYes. Thanks very much, Martin. So first of all, I just wanted to clarify where we typically see adverse events rates being captured in a very rigorous way is in Phase I because basically, we follow the patients very, very closely there. I think that is what you are referring to also because most of these trials are built with technicalities around how we capture the rate, but also how we want to drive the dose escalation in a meaningful way. So those are a little bit technical but also a little bit artificial. What we will see readout of is proper Phase II trials. And here, we actually expect to see the, I would say, expected adverse event profile and tolerability profile of these 2 drugs. You've actually seen some readouts from Phase II, albeit in patients from UBT251. It looks very, very attractive with low adverse event rates and lower drawn rates. We cannot fully expect to see that in a global study, but our aspiration is to have adverse events in line with what we've seen with Wegovy and with other GLP-1 incretin-based therapies. And actually, for the triple, we potentially expect to see either in line and potentially even a more attractive safety profile and tolerability profile because the GIP component will come to its own right here.
Emil Larsen
executiveYes. On Ozempic pill in IO, we have definitely taken note of the success that Jamey and team have delivered in the U.S. That's good inspiration. You'll be the first to hear if we end up concluding that it's a good product for IO as well. At the moment, our focus is the 2.0 launches. We've come late to that NIO launched in 13 markets year-to-date, 20 by the end of the year. And so far, we have good results. We shared the results from Germany and the Netherlands, 2 early launch markets, but a number of other markets are also proving promising here. So that's our focus. That will already be enforced the Ozempic brand at a moment where for your building blocks for next year, we, of course, are facing increasing competition particularly in reimbursed markets across IO from a well-known competitor to you all. So it will be key to reinforce Ozempic, first with 2.0.
Michael Novod
executiveThank you very much, Emil. Thank you very much, Martin. And then just to kind of ask again to limit yourself to one question. So as many as possible can get to ask the question. Next question, operator.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from the line of Matthew Weston from UBS.
Matthew Weston
analystI'm going to actually ask Sachin's question, Mike. Is the positive growth exit rate in the second half of 26%, the best proxy for '27? Or is the full year 0% average at the midpoint of guidance that you referenced earlier, the best baseline for next year? And if I can slip in one because I managed to get to Slide 83. If roxifermin looks like you have no plans to launch until 2030 when you get the F4 data? Can you confirm no plans to go early with F3?
Unknown Executive
executiveYes. So the way that it works, we look at the totality of this year, we look at the pluses and the minuses that we had this year. And we look at quarter-by-quarter, frankly speaking, and then we look at the exact same thing for next year. I told you that on some notes, we see positive results for next year. I think the Bridge program is a great example of that. We've had half of that. We're happy with it. Let's do that for the full year next year. On the other hand, LOE in international operations is exactly the opposite of that. So I would not give you numbers again today, we're not guiding. But what I do tell you is that right now, we've guided 0% midterm for the first 9 years -- 9 months. So that's basically how we're going to look at this going forward. On the question, we have to follow the data. We will look at the data for F2, F3, F4, and then make a decision. I don't know if Martin wants to add any more to that.
Martin Lange
executiveI think it's important to call out that is where we see the big unmet need. We already have a drug on the market for F2 and F3. It's called Wegovy. And therefore, to Mike's point, will be guided by the data as we see them.
Michael Novod
executiveThank you, Matthew. Next question, please.
Operator
operatorAnd our next question comes from the line of Richard Vosser from JPMorgan.
Richard Vosser
analystOne on Ozempic, please. Maybe you could talk about the underlying price dynamics this quarter throughout this year, whether there's any impact from lower 340B rebates going through to better prices? And how you're thinking about that into next year? I noticed you didn't mention IRA next year. I know we talked about that last quarter, but is that still a headwind in terms of price? Or are there price benefits that offset that next year? And then the second question, maybe you could just talk about that oral rollout. I think 12 or so incremental markets in the first half of '27. Maybe you could talk about the relative opportunity of those markets relative to the U.K. and how early days, France, Poland, Mexico, et cetera, are going and their relative opportunity?
Michael Novod
executiveThank you, Richard. The first question to Jamey and then the second question to Emil.
Jamey Millar
executiveYes. Thanks for the question, Richard, on Ozempic gross to net trend. So as we've guided before, suggested the 10% to 15% price erosion on an annual basis is the way to think about it. There's so much fluctuation variability quarter-to-quarter. Obviously, in the quarter, we saw significantly better range than the 10% to 15%. But year-to-date and over a 12-month period, we still feel 10% to 15% is reasonable. The payer pressure on net prices in the type 2 diabetes category remain and will continue. So that's our best judgment there.
Michael Novod
executiveEmil?
Emil Larsen
executiveYes. On the rollout in IO, of course, I'm very pleased with our manufacturing colleagues because they keep upping the output. And you noticed at Capital Markets Day, we promised 20 markets by end of next year. Now we promised by end of first half. So that's, of course, incredibly positive. We also back then shared that this would correspond to 2/3 of the market potential. So we reached that earlier, of course. And then across the markets, I've learned to be rather humble predicting potential in this space. But of course, you could say markets with a low penetration and a propensity to tablets such as Mexico. That is a relatively speaking, bigger market expansion opportunity versus the Danish market, for instance, that's more mature with a 10% treatment rate. So there's something about where are we on treatment rates, what is the propensity to online and tablets altogether. But overall, of course, we see it as a hugely important opportunity. And in the early innings, it will still be Europe driving the majority. Then of course, we'll see, and that's what we will learn next year. In markets that have gone LOE what does the fact that this would be a premium offering from a pricing perspective means to the volumes we can secure there. And we'll keep you posted on those learnings as we move into next year.
Michael Novod
executiveNext question, please.
Operator
operatorAnd our next question comes from the line of Michael Leuchten from Jefferies.
Michael Leuchten
analystI'll stick to one and Karsten, thank you so much for the interactions over the years. A question is just a follow-up on your commentary, Jamey, on the Bridge contribution to the franchise. So do I understand correctly that without Bridge you wouldn't have grown the GLP-1 franchise? And what does that mean as Bridge starts to annualize?
Michael Novod
executiveThank you very much, Michael. Question to Jamey on Bridge in the U.S.
Jamey Millar
executiveYes. Without the Bridge contribution, there is less growth in the 20% sequential growth that we talked about. Bridge is definitely creating an inflection in the category and without Bridge, the AOM category, not just Novo, but the category looks relatively flat in the May to October time frame, reflecting the seasonality.
Michael Novod
executiveNext question, please.
Operator
operatorAnd our next question comes from the line of James Quigley from Goldman Sachs.
James Quigley
analystAlso thank you, Karsten, for your help over the years and better luck in the future. Maybe one for you, Karsten. So on the upgraded guidance range of -- for 2026, the implied range for Q4 is super wide. I think it DKK 12 billion swing. So what are the key factors side there. And then as we look into next year with the gross to net is quite high this year, how should we treat that as we're thinking for '27? Is that an unwind? Or is that a new base from which sales need to grow from? And then secondly, quickly for Jamey on the CagriSema launch in the U.S. As you prepare for the launch, how are you thinking about market segmentation which patients or consumers will the initial marketing campaign target? Sounded a little like older women from Martin's comments, but will you have sufficient data for the launch here? And what is the best analog we should look at as we start to model the launch.
Michael Novod
executiveThank you very much. First question to Karsten on a year to go in 2026, and then over to Jamey on.
Karsten Knudsen
executiveJames, thanks for the nice words. And specifically to your question on implied growth and guidance ranges then I'll just say, as to the guidance ranges, the breadth we have here in Q3 is completely customary at this point in time. And the reason why we have this breadth is that we are navigating a rapidly growing category with a certain degree of volatility. So that's why we keep it a little bit wider compared to the heydays when it was pure insulin and extremely linear. So that's really the reason there. And in terms of implied growth, it's important to note that while we are growing 2% year-to-date, and we have a midpoint of 0, then we do have a tough comparator in the fourth quarter due to U.S. gross-to-net last year of DKK 3 billion in the fourth quarter. And then LOE in mainland Canada, Emil spoke to also having a bigger impact in the fourth quarter compared to the first 9 months. So those are really the 2 biggest ticket items impacting the fourth quarter and the implied growth there.
Michael Novod
executiveFor you, Jamey?
Jamey Millar
executiveYes. And as for segmentation, it's absolutely the right question, but you'll understand and appreciate if I don't graphically describe our launch strategy. But that said, I'll make 2 points. one, super excited about CagriSema and expanding the optionality for physicians and for patients. Increasingly, as more competitors come into the category having a portfolio of singles doublet, triplets over time is going to be really important from a competitive standpoint. And as you described, as the information data emerges on CagriSema, there is a nice profile that is emerging in terms of the efficacy of the product even at lower doses, as Martin described, and the patient population perimenopausal women where we recently announced the 25% weight loss seen in the study. So thank you for your question, and we're super excited about the launch coming up.
Michael Novod
executiveNext question, please.
Operator
operatorAnd our next question comes from the line of Martin Brenoe from Nordea.
Martin Brenoe
analystI just have 2 left, please. First question would be whether you can provide a bit of color on how you see the price dynamics heading into 2027. Just what the main building blocks that we need to be aware of when we do our modeling? And second question, is on the Wegovy Pill. Now you're committing to rolling out the Wegovy Pill a bit faster than what you indicated just less than 2 months ago. Can you just help us understand what's been the main driver behind this assumption and whether you still see some upside to this accelerated rollout that you are now promising here?
Michael Novod
executiveThank you very much, Martin. So some high-level comments from Jamey on the U.S. and then over to Emil on accelerating Wegovy Pill in IO.
Jamey Millar
executiveI apologize if a bit repetitive. But on the Ozempic side, as we've suggested that 10 to 15 price degradation trend is kind of our experience in what we would suggest not guiding, but that trend continues. And then on the Wegovy side, we've again seeing 30%, 35% in the quarter, again, with the variability a little on the high end, but we expect that or a little better moving forward. Just to clean up maybe one question that was asked before that I missed and has been answered previously. Because of the Ozempic trend, NFP pricing, we don't expect to have an incremental negative consequence because that's been the trajectory we've been on. So someone asked that before, and I didn't cover it.
Michael Novod
executiveThanks, Jamey.
Emil Larsen
executiveYes, on the acceleration, it is really back to, of course, manufacturing stepping up, producing above what the lines are expected to be able to deliver. I've been visiting myself to chair and the teams, and they're really doing a great job working 24/7. Another aspect is regulatory. We've actually taken some learnings of how we also rolled out. Wegovy injectable very quickly, working with multi-country packs, et cetera. So great work to also optimize. That simply means you can have launch batches, serving more countries and hence, speed up productivity in manufacturing. So that's helped. You saw maybe also the breaking news of the day, Australia. We got approval also great local regulatory work, so another front loading there. So it's a combination of manufacturing, regulatory work and really close collaboration.
Michael Novod
executiveNext question please.
Operator
operatorAnd our next question comes from the line of Seamus Fernandez from Guggenheim Securities.
Seamus Fernandez
analystSo my question is just kind of going back to that -- the comment about the sequential growth from March basically being flat and the contribution of the Medicare Bridge program being the main accelerator. That speaks to, I think, to some degree, a cautionary tail for payers potentially lowering the price or helping to lower the price of treatment. I guess the big question is, how do you get commercial pay to really step in and start to reveal the benefits, the medical benefits that we all know, GLP-1s actually have given several appear to have pulled back from supporting the obesity opportunity.
Michael Novod
executiveThanks, Seamus. So to Jamey, on that question regarding dynamics in the U.S. payer market.
Jamey Millar
executiveYes. It's a great question. It's a simple question with a difficult answer. But the reticence on behalf of the downstream payers, employers, government, private payers is increasingly about the volume concern side of the equation. Price keeps coming down, net prices, competition is working in that sense. Our list prices will also come down 1127 as previously announced. But how payers control the cost trend that they see, which is the price times volume equation, is the challenge. We're engaged daily with employers, third-party payers, PBMs on their behalf to try and manage the volume in a unique and different way so that they can manage the cost trend. But you're right, whether it's Pepsi, Starbucks, other large employers, when they see the cost trend, they move against despite the clinical and economic benefit long term of medical cost offsets that have been demonstrated in the market. So we continue to fight that battle and seek greater access for the category, by the way, again, not unique to Novo. This is a categorical issue and opportunity that we're working on.
Michael Novod
executiveRight. Thank you very much. Last question, please.
Operator
operatorAnd our last question comes from the line of Kerry Holford from Berenberg.
Kerry Holford
analystAnd thank you again also to Karsten for the many years of interactions. I won't finish again on Bridge. Just linking to that question in a way with regard to commercial options as it does now settle up to the U.S. returns today, Jamey, I wonder if you can comment on your expectations on the Medicare Bridge, let's say, the Medicare coverage extend beyond the end of Bridge, which I know that you come to an end at the end of next year, if that appetite is not there to provide access more broadly, how do you see it playing out within the Medicare channel?
Michael Novod
executiveThanks, Kerry. Last question to Jamey around dynamics again on Bridge and also how it's all panning out in the U.S.
Jamey Millar
executiveYes, it's difficult to predict what the political environment is going to look like at the end of '27. But as the '28 presidential elections come into play, health care continues to be a dominant topic for U.S. citizens. Family insurance premiums have increased 28% over the last 5 years. So health care costs continued issue for both parties. I think as more and more seniors enjoy this coverage for GLP-1s for weight loss that will put pressure politically on continuation of the program. The benefit of this demonstration project is to document eligibility, inclusion, cost and outcomes so that they can make a determination. And obviously, we'll continue to work with the administration, with CMS, with both parties to continue this access opportunity for seniors who are finding it beneficial and affordable.
Michael Novod
executiveGreat. Thank you very much, Jamey, and thanks, Kerry. So this concludes the Q&A session. And before we ended completely, I also would be remiss even though there's been a lot of thank yous, I also need to say thank you very much to you, Karsten, both from being an analyst on the sell side, and most recently, internally as my direct boss and leader. So thank you very much, and best of luck going forward.
Karsten Knudsen
executiveThank you.
Michael Novod
executiveThat was it. Thank you for participating. And feel free to contact Investor Relations regarding any follow-up questions you may have. Thank you very much.
Operator
operatorThis concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Speakers, please stand by.
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