NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S ($NTG)

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the NTG Q1 2026 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to CEO of NTG Nordic Transport Group, Mathias Jensen-Vinstrup. Please go ahead.

Thank you, and welcome, everybody, to our Q1 2026 Conference Call, and thank you for dialing in. My name is Mathias Jensen-Vinstrup, I'm the Group CEO of NTG and I have Tinneke Torpe, our new Group CFO, with me today. I'll spend the next 15 to 20 minutes taking you through our highlights and results for the first quarter of the year and finish off by answering questions from the audience. On the next page, and in case you didn't do so before, we kindly ask you to read the forward-looking statement provided on the page. And moving on to the next page, you see the agenda for the conference call, which includes the highlights for the first quarter of 2026, a review of the financial performance of the group and each of our 2 divisions, a presentation about the key figures, and then finally, we will open up for a Q&A session. Moving on to the next page, you see a summary of the highlights for the first quarter of the year, a quarter in which we did quite well in large parts of our business. Gross profit increased by 8.1% and adjusted EBIT increased by 14.9% compared to the same period last year. The development was primarily driven by the inclusion of DTK and yet another quarter of organic growth within the Road & Logistics division. When you look at the M&A effect on revenue and EBIT, i.e., the DKK 26 million that you see on the slide, please keep in mind that more than half of the revenue from the acquisition of BTK. The ambient part was fully integrated into our existing entity in Denmark, in particular, but also in Sweden shortly after closing of the transaction. And the M&A impact from this part of the business represents an estimate, just like in the previous quarters, which likely implies a somewhat positive bias that potentially understates the residual, the organic growth slightly. From an overall market perspective, we continue to operate in a volatile environment with geopolitical events impacting our industry in an increasingly frequent manner, most recently with the war in the Middle East that added yet another disruption. But as also seen in the past, we adjust quickly and decisively. And so long as the war doesn't turn into a broader macroeconomic headwind, we do see opportunities arising out of this turmoil as well. In Germany, the underlying activity levels have stabilized, yet the ongoing implementation of a new TMS or groupage represented a drag on performance during the first quarter of the year. We are, however, confident in the direction that we have set out and the operating model that we have built with the introduction of a second TMS on the road to cater for the groupage activities that represent a sizable portion of our Road & Logistics division, also outside of Germany. Within the Air & Ocean division, the restructuring and strengthening of the organization globally continues to accelerate in momentum and numerous measures were taken during the quarter to lower the cost base through rightsizing of the organization and also to elevate the focus on commercial initiatives to stimulate organic growth in the short, medium and longer term. And we expect this momentum to continue in the coming quarters. Based on the financial performance in the first quarter of 2026 and our current view and expectations on the market, we maintain our full year 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance in the range of DKK 600 million to DKK 650 million. On the next page, we dive into the financial highlights for the group, where I want to highlight the organic growth of 4.4%, which was a result of strong performance in the Road & Logistics division. Looking at the gross margin, the development reflects 2 main factors: first and mainly the ongoing rollout of the new groupage TMS in Germany; and secondly, a more aggressive pricing strategy to take market shares across the Nordic region. On the operating margin side, we experienced a year-on-year improvement, driven by an improved conversion ratio in the Road & Logistics division, combined with the realization of synergies from the acquisition of DTK. Special items in the first quarter amounted to DKK 12 million, mainly related to the reorganization activities within the Air & Ocean division. Turning to the Road & Logistics division on the next page. And the division delivered a double-digit organic revenue growth in the first quarter of the year, driven by a combination of price increases, the fuel surcharge, mainly towards the end of the quarter as well as volume growth. Market trends in Q1 differed a bit across geographies, again, with Germany remaining somewhat muted, while markets outside of Germany showed signs of improvement. Overall, the market conditions were flat to slightly improving on a year-on-year basis following a prolonged period of decline. Outside of Germany, the development was broadly positive and stable compared to Q1 last year. And we continue to focus on gaining market shares and expanding our network organically, fighting for every customer and every shipment. Overall, the division improved profitability compared to last year and delivered organic adjusted EBIT growth of 2.0%. On the next page, we dive into the Air & Ocean division. And from a market perspective, global container volumes increased during the first quarter of the year, but market conditions remained volatile. Container freight rates continued to face a sort of underlying downward pressure as additional capacity entered the market, somewhat counterbalanced by disruptions across global trade lanes. And towards the end of the quarter, the conflict in the Middle East led to short-term rate increases from the carriers. On air freight, market demand improved compared to last year and freight rates increased towards the end of the first quarter this year, again, partly driven by the situation in the Middle East. During the quarter, reorganization initiatives picked up in momentum, as I mentioned before, with a focus on cost reductions and organizational rightsizing, particularly in the U.S., but also broadening to multiple other markets. As at the time of speaking, rightsizing initiatives within the division amounts to a little shy of 10% of the total number of employees in the division as per the beginning of the year. But please keep in mind that this is a gross number, i.e., investments in new competencies and existing as well as in new locations reduces the net impact in the short term. Disregarding investments in expanding our footprint in existing and new markets, we do expect a gradual decline in the cost base as we move further into the year. And finally, also in continuation of what I mentioned before, we are happy to announce that we have welcomed Carsten Trolle as the new CEO of our Air & Ocean division from the 1st of April this year, and we are pleased to see that Carsten is off to a good start. Moving on, we turn to the key figures of the group, where we did see net working capital during the quarter was driven by normal seasonality, but also in the first quarter of 2026 with a greater than usual impact of the Easter holiday period, which we do expect to reverse in the coming quarters as well as a temporary increase in the net working capital as a result of the ongoing rollout of the new brokerage TMS in Germany. This development had an adverse impact on our cash flow during the quarter. The leverage ratio remained at 2.6x adjusted EBITDA during the quarter, positively impacted by the inclusion of BTK and negatively impacted by our ongoing share buyback program. Finally, the decline in the return on invested capital before tax compared to the same period last year was primarily driven by higher average invested capital following the acquisitions that we have made, which carried a greater impact on the invested capital than the corresponding increase in the adjusted EBIT. As a concluding remark, we've also shared an invitation to our Capital Markets Day in Copenhagen on the 18th of November 2026, and we look much forward to welcoming institutional investors and analysts to deep dive on the progress that we are making across the entire footprint of the business and also to introducing our new and now complete management team. You can register via a link on our website or in case of any questions, you can reach out to our Investor Relations team. So this concludes the presentation. So moderator, please open for Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Lars Heindorff from Nordea.

The first one is on the Road business, quite impressive organic growth, a decent topline with 10%. Could you please give us a bit more details? I mean, to what extent is this caused by volumes? And to what extent is this price? There's been a lot of price increases. And then perhaps also if you can share some thoughts about the impact on growth as we head into the second quarter, maybe even perhaps the third quarter from the increase in the diesel prices? That's the first one.

Sure. Thank you, Lars. So I'd say the split has been different or changing over the course of the first quarter. So for the majority of the first quarter, I would say it's more of a balanced split in terms of volume and price growth. But there's no doubt in particular on the revenue side that as we introduced also a more frequent update of our diesel surcharge mechanisms that the price portion of the growth did expand. And we continue to expect this to be the case as we move further into the year as also as we see some of the customers with less frequent updates also coming up to speed, so to speak, on the diesel surcharge mechanisms. Now what we also did see if we look at it from sort of a gross profit perspective is that we did manage to sort of keep the haulers on a lower level for a few weeks during the quarter, and they will also be picking up as we move further into the year. So -- but there's no doubt that we do expect to see a positive contribution on the gross profit side as we move further into the year, but we do expect that positive contribution to normalize somewhat as the haulers also pick up. But it all depends on where the price per barrel will sort of stabilize and also the macroeconomic implications of such a high fuel price going forward.

And just to understand that because you referred yourself to the gross margin, which is down year-on-year. As you point out, apparently some price increases towards the haulers. Now is the easy flow that is rather positive or negative? And if you already have conceived some price increases towards the haulers, what will that then do to the gross margin as we head into the coming quarters? Is that going to be a little bit under pressure as well compared to last year?

I mean I'd say there's -- as we tried to allude to in the presentation, there's 2 main drivers of the gross margin development in the Road division. There's the situation with the rollout in Germany, where we definitely did take a rather significant toll on our margin that we do expect to recover as we move further into the year. But it will be a process that will continue throughout the remaining 3 quarters of the year. And also in the Nordic region, we did see a decline in the gross margin given the pricing strategy that I mentioned during the presentation. But in isolation, the impact of our changes to the diesel surcharge mechanism is expected to have a positive impact.

Okay. And then just 2 more, then I'll jump back in the queue. The first one on the cash flow and the net working capital, you mentioned yourself that's been and also you had a comment on the rollout of the new TMS system tying up some net working capital. I mean, is that something that we will see in the coming quarters or will have -- will that have any kind of negative impact on a full year basis as well? I guess you won't be completely done with the rollout of [ transport structure ] until the end of this year?

I mean it's a moving situation. We do expect to have seen the biggest tie-up of capital in the first quarter of the year. But it is a process and with sort of a groupage system and a group workflow, any challenges will end up in the invoicing phase of the shipment life cycle. And that's what we did see that took a rather significant tie-up of net working capital. But again, as I also mentioned, I think a big factor in the buildup of working capital in the first quarter was also a more sort of intended move towards some of the haulers from our Nordic entities where because of the timing of the Easter holiday, we wanted to make sure that the money would be in the bank as soon as possible as we move into April. But because of the timing of the holiday, we did decide contrary to previous years to do rather a large payment by the end of March instead of into April. So that also did take a rather significant toll on working capital.

Okay. And then the last is on the M&A side, 2.6x EBITDA is still fairly high leverage and then you've initiated a share buyback program. So maybe if you could give us a status on your thoughts about M&A. Will you -- I mean, geographically by division perhaps? And also, I mean, are we looking at if you do something this year, given a lot of all the changes that goes on, will it be bolt-ons? Or could you potentially be looking into something which could be bigger?

We could potentially be looking into something that would be bigger in this case. I mean if you look at it from a divisional perspective on the Road side, there's still a full and prioritized focus on Germany and the rollout of the TMS, which continue to take the majority of our attention in that part of the business. And on the Ocean side, Carsten just joined as of the 1st of April, and there's definitely a lot of initiatives being launched at the moment. But given the sort of the agility and the size of the division, we do expect to be much more prepared for potential M&A just, say, 6 months plus down the road. So we are -- I mean, we are preparing the entire organization, not only on sort of a divisional level, but also from a group perspective on the IT side and on the finance side to make sure that we can do integrations much more seamlessly and quicker than ever before, and we are seeing quite a lot of improvements these days.

Our next question comes from the line of Ulrik Bak from Danske Bank.

So a couple of questions from my side. Firstly, follow-up on Lars' question about the gross margin in Road & Logistics. So diesel prices are up roughly 30% since before the Middle East situation started. And I understand that around 1/3 of your whole year cost before the situation started is diesel. So 30% times 1/3, that's a 10% increase price component if we assume that the current diesel prices last for the rest of the quarter in Q2. So if you say that it will also have a positive impact on your gross margin, we should see a significant increase in the gross profit and i.e., also in EBIT in Q2. I just want to be sure that I understand that correctly.

As I tried to allude to, there's a lot of moving parts in the gross margin of the group. In isolation, we definitely do expect a positive contribution. But what we're also seeing is quite extensive discussions with our clients in terms of that 1/3 that you allude to. I mean, of course, we're trying to argue that if you keep the total cost base, excluding the fuel prices constant, that 1/3 would be higher. That is tricky. And by the end of that all what matters to the customers is the total price of the transport and not so much the different components, even though that we try to argue for the increases that we are introducing. But I would say that if you look at sort of the general activity level in the market and the capacity situation, especially towards the end of the first quarter, but also moving into the to the second quarter. We have seen a tightening spot market, in particular, with price increases as a result, which also means that the bargaining position of the haulers is strengthening as capacity becomes an increasingly scarce resource. And of course, that will have an adverse impact on this particular effect that we are talking about. But everything else being equal, we do expect to see a positive contribution, but we also do expect to continue to be competitive, especially in a market that seems to be suffering a little bit on the road side, where we do want to go in to win the business and make sure that we take as much market share as we can. And we do that by launching a multitude of initiatives, but mainly based on pricing. So that will have a negative impact expectedly.

So second question on the drag from the TMS rollout. Can you quantify what the impact was in Q1 on EBIT or gross profit? And how long we should expect this drag to be in place? So when will it be fully rolled out and see a contribution, positive contribution from it?

Sure. So we won't do any sort of precise quantification of the impact, but it was indeed a meaningful impact, to a certain extent, significant impact. We are seeing a recovery. We've seen that over the course of the quarter, but that recovery will be longer than expected, and it will continue for 1 or 2 quarters moving.

Okay. And then perhaps back to what you alluded to before, just the market outlook on the different regions. You made a comment in the report saying that you saw stabilization towards the end of the quarter, but it was subdued during the quarter. So what here at the beginning of May, what are you seeing currently? Are we starting to see a pickup? Or is it still just stable?

I mean, as I mentioned, the spot market seems to be doing quite well as we speak, in particular, when looking from a Nordic perspective. I do think on the Air & Ocean side, it's a bit of a different environment that we are looking into. We did see quite a muted activity, in particular, in the beginning of the first quarter. And in addition to the project activity that we've discussed quite a few times, we also did see a downturn of similar magnitude in the U.S. given sort of a lower activity and the more hesitant behavior amongst our customers. And that sort of hesitant behavior seems to have been picking up a little bit in the wake of the war in the Middle East. So on the Air & Ocean side, as we also alluded to during the full-year presentation for the '25 numbers, we do expect it to be a tough market, at least from an activity and yield perspective, looking 12 to 24 months ahead. And that's why we are fairly firm and quick in our rightsizing of the organization, but also in terms of investments in strengthening the organization and positioning ourselves for the pickup whenever that may occur. So I think it's somewhat of a blurry picture. There's no doubt that Germany seems from sort of a macroeconomic perspective to have improved in the beginning of the first quarter and then the development turned quite quickly again for the worst. So it is a little bit up and down right now on the continent, in particular, in the middle part of the continent. But in particular on the Western side, we have seen similar patterns as is the case in the Nordics.

All right. And perhaps final question on your guidance sensitivity to this macro environment. You maintained the guidance on EBIT, DKK 600 million to DKK 650 million. So can you provide any flavor about the assumptions now you say that the TMS is perhaps a bit behind schedule, macro, yes, still uncertain. But what are the levers to bring you at the top or low end of the guidance range here?

So basically a continuation of the situation that we find ourselves in right now. As you mentioned, the drag from the TMS is bigger than expected, but we also have seen performance elsewhere in the business that has improved compared to the expectations. And on a net basis, this makes us comfortable still with the guidance range that we provided. But in case the activity levels generally deteriorate because of the fuel prices and in particular, the derived effects that may have on activity levels globally, then that will rest outside of the guidance range.

We will now take our next question this one comes from the line of Emilie Fung from Barclays.

Just a quick follow-up for me from the last question we just had. So when we think about the guidance, should we assume a normal seasonality to bridge guidance? Or is it delivery more dependent on the second half step-up in Air & Ocean than the Germany TMS normalization? And are you able to give some color on your expectations, your assumptions behind the duration of the Middle East conflict in your guidance, please?

As I mentioned before, we base our guidance on a continuation of the current market environment and also the challenges that we are facing from a more sort of endogenous or internal perspective. Now we have no firm opinion on when the situation in the Middle East will come to an end. But even though there may be an improvement in the environment, so to speak, we do expect to see implications on the fuel prices to persist at least for a period after a potential sort of resolvement of the situation. So it is a little bit like extrapolating the situation from Q1 to the rest of the year that confirms the guidance range that we provided.

We have one more question and this one comes from Lars Heindorff from Nordea.

Just a follow-up. It's on the costs in roads. So you say that there has been a slight delay in the rollout and also incurred some costs, it sounds like that in the first quarter. But if you look at the total cost base, it's only very marginal up compared to the level of Q4. Actually, it's slightly down. I think it was DKK 300 million if you adjust for the earn-out in the fourth quarter, and it's DKK 294 million combined, both of the internal and staff costs in the first quarter. So maybe if you can just, I mean, share some details on that, why if there are some extra costs related to these things on the rollout, why are costs down sequentially? And what kind of run rate should we expect for the rest of the year?

It's a fair point. I think it comes back to what we discussed before in terms of the gross margin. I think the biggest impact of the challenges that we're facing in Germany is not so much on the OpEx side, it's more on the gross margin side. And it's not system related, and it's not per se a delay in the rollout of the system. I actually think that went quite well from a technical perspective. And as I mentioned, we are even more confident in the choice of the system that we made and also in our competencies from a technical perspective in migrating on to Translogic as it's called in the future. It is a huge change management exercise, and it definitely requires a rather significant overhaul of the previous more manual processes, which gives room for a greater number of errors than what we've seen in the past and also decisions that are of a greater cost to make sure that we uphold the service level towards the customers. So we do expect in isolation to see a decline in the OpEx and the cost base once we are on the other side of the challenges with the rollout of Translogic, but the main impact has been more on the gross margin side and on the gross profit side.

Okay. And just a clarification again on the back of Ulrik's earlier question. When will the rollout be completed?

So we do expect by the end of the second quarter and the third quarter of the year to be in a stable situation where we move back to business as usual and more continuous optimization as opposed to some of the large organizational changes that we're introducing.

That was our last question for today. I will now hand the call back to Mathias Jensen-Vinstrup for closing remarks.

All right. Thank you, everybody, for participating. Thank you for the questions, and please do not hesitate to reach out to our Investor Relations team in case you have any follow-ups. Thank you, and have a great day.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.